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Report from Aung Lynn Htut

(April, 2009)
Since I left from embassy, I am still in touch with getting inside information from
Burma. According to my sources, the state level quarterly meeting held on March
2009. Attendees are members of cabinet ministers and regional commanders.
During the meeting, Than Shwe told them that he has no desire to compromise
with Daw Aung Sun Su Kyi unless he needs it. He intentionally uses her as
domestic and international issue. Than Shwe has no courage to talk with DASSK
face to face now. So he has appointed Major General Aung Kyi as a
representative.

He is afraid to hand over his power to the people. Finally, Than Shwe has become
wicked and cunning towards the people of Burma. No one understands what
Than Shwe is doing including government higher position officials. His plan is to
change the form of government, however he still want to hold the power in
different way. As a military psychological officer, Than Shwe knows how to treat
on the people badly by psychologically. For example, he frequently cut the power
in Burma. He believes that people have problems in daily life, if they won’t pay
attention on current political issues. He is far worse than U Ne Win.

Most of Than Shwe’s personal expense comes from Myanmar Economy Holding
(MEH) and Myanmar Economy Corporation (MEC). MEH is lead by Lt: General Tin
Aye who is Than Shwe’s former personal assistant (PA) in No. (88) Division and
current Chief of Defense Industry and SPDC member.MEH manage all economic
ministries (Trade, Mine, Forest, Energy, Livestock, Fishery, Agriculture, Industry
(1), Industry (2), Electrical Power). MEC is lead by Quarter Master General .MEC
manages only military own factories and enterprises. Therefore, Than Shwe can
spend money unlimitedly without auditing.

Soft constructive engagement method won’t be change for Than Shwe’s mind. He
never pays attention to this method. His offensive diplomacy is using China, India,
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Russia and ASEAN. Therefore my suggestion is to divide the relationship with

these countries. Also we need to give more pressure from the western countries.

We should utilize the Chinese government to increase the pressure on Burma.

When I was in embassy, I discussed with a Chinese intelligence officer concerning
Chinese’s policy on Burma at the Washington DC in 2003. At that time, he told me
that Chinese will accept Daw Aung Sun Su Kyi if she takes the power. He is one of
the assistants of the current Chinese president, Hu Jintao. Actually Chinese want
to be stabilized in Burma intern of political and economic. They are only
interested in doing business with Burma. When NLD won the 1990 election,
Chinese ambassador in Burma acknowledged the first. When I was in war office,
Than Shwe, Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt frequently talked about Chinese. They
know that Chinese is not a good friend but they have to join with them inevitably.
Particularly, Than Shwe and Maung Aye fought Burmese communist party troops
(At that time Chinese backed up them) when they were in the infantry units.
Maung Aye always told commanders at every operation meeting that we have to
be ready to fight WA and we need to watch whatever their movements. Chinese
is still control armed groups along the borders of China and Burma. When Shwe
Mann visited to China last year, he requested Chinese government to help the
armed groups for giving up their arms. China did not accept his request.
Moreover, during the Chinese Foreign Minister visit to Burma in 2008, Than Shwe
was frustrated at the meeting because the Chinese Foreign Minister told him that
SPDC needs to pursue the UN’s request which is dialogue with opposition groups.
After Chinese Foreign Minister’s visit, Burmese government decided that not
taking hold of arms from peace groups.

Since Than Shwe was frustrated with Chinese, he invited Russia nuclear experts to
search uranium around the area in Burma. He knows that China dislike towards
Russia and Burma’s close relationship. In early 2009, Chinese Communist
Executive member, Chinese military chief and other delegations visited Burma to
ease SPDC. Right now, one of the most problems is the gas pipe lines. First, they
agreed to build gas pipe lines from Akyab (Sittwe) to China. After that, Than Shwe
made changes the agreement to build gas pipe lines from Kyauk Phyu to China. It
is problem for China because they have already finished their plan to build the gas
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pipe lines in 2010. So they have to negotiate with Burmese authorities again. Even
after memorandums agreement in 2002/2003, Than Shwe refused to sign an
agreement of using the Irrawaddy during the Chinese president Jiang Zemin’s
visit. Agreement was for the Burmese government to allow Chinese cargo ships in
Irrawaddy River. They would build the tar road from Chinese border to Bamaw
(Kachin State). And then they want to build a sea port in Irrawaddy River (Bamaw)
and manage along Irrawaddy River to exit Bay of Bangel. The refusing reason of
Than Shwe was he does not want to see Chinese flags in Irrawaddy River. At that
time, Chinese president was so angry. Presently China has seven hydro power
projects to make in the northern part of Burma. They want to make contracts
before 2010 election in Burma. As a result, they lobby the government officials to
sign the contracts as soon as possible. We need to persuade China to join us and
we have to try to get China to not veto in UN concerning Burma bill.

Than Shwe knows very well that India is harmless to Burma. India has insurgent’s
problems along the border of India and Burma. There are Naga, Kuki, Kathe and
Chin ethnic insurgent groups. Naga, Kuki and Kathe insurgent groups are trying to
get independence from India. Previously, Burmese government allowed staying
on the border and supported ration and weapons secretly. After the Indian Prime
Minister Rajid Gandhi died, India invited to Burmese authorities to visit and
discuss with them. Colonel Kyaw Thein (Directorate of Defense Service
Intelligence) and U Aye (Director General, Ministry of Foreign Affairs) went to
India in 1992.They met military officials and government officials. After that
Burmese military officers and intelligence officers went to India to learn training
courses in India school. For the time being, India issued their new policy “To see
east”. And then they concern movements of Chinese navy in the Bay of Bengal.
Therefore, Than Shwe uses India like as pawn in his check game. It means India
could not make a problem on Burma.

Than Shwe uses ASEAN countries like as a lawyer for Burma to lobby the western
countries. In 1998, Than Shwe was very mad to ASEAN regarding Daw Aung Sun
Su Kyi. He intended to withdraw from ASEAN at that time. He told his staff that if
ASEAN talk about Daw Aung Sun Su Kyi, we will leave from ASEAN. However,
some ASEAN countries are having business with Burmese government. Thailand
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provides billion dollars to the SPDC by buying natural gas and Singapore keeps
billion dollars of General’s money now. The major income of the SPDC is only gas
money. So, they always watch out the security of gas pipe line along the Thailand
border. The most of their assets are in Singapore. They concern that if US make
the pressure on Singapore to freeze their assets, they will face many problems. As
a result, Than Shwe pays more attention to Thailand and Singapore. Although, he
is not willing to discuss with Singapore and Thailand about political situation in
Burma, he requested to Thaksin Shinawatra, former Thailand prime minister
during the official visit to the United State in 2002 and 2004 before the meeting,
Burmese government sent a special letter for Thaksin Shinawatra via Burmese
embassy in Washington DC. If he has a chance to talk with the President Bush, he
could put in a few good words about Burma.

Than Shwe know that Russia is one of the decision makers in UN. That’s why he
maintains good relation with Russia. Te Za is a favorite business man of Than
Shwe. Te Za started Russia and Burma’s relation to buy military equipments. In
2006, Maung Aye visited to Russia and met with high level officials. Although he
tried to talk with the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, he did not have a chance
to meet him. Burmese military bought high technology from Russia including
nuclear weapons. After Senior General Than Shwe took the power in April 1992,
he made three strategies to the Burmese military. The strategies are to increase
military strength, to modernize their military, and to own nuclear weapons. He
also often said at the Defense Headquarters that Burma does not need to be
afraid of the United States, if only Burma has the nuclear capability like North
Korea and that Cuba, then Burma could afford to care less of America. The senior
military officers took his words as policy guidance. That is why Than Shwe
approaches Russia to get nuclear technology and modernize weapons. But they
are still trying to get the trust from Russia. So, if we use tactfully methods to
Russia, we may prevent Russia’s trust on Burma.

I believe that sanctions are more effective to achieve democracy for Burma
especially targeted sanctions. Than Shwe, Maung Aye, Khin Nyunt, and Tin Oo
make use of “sanctions”, a word used as a political weapon among the domestic
and international politic when US announced first sanction on Burmese regime in
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1997.At that time, they were not concerned about the sanction because it was
not effective. They issued the propaganda through the Burmese regime’s spoke
man Colonel Hla Min from Military Intelligence. Because of these sanctions,
thousands of women workers were laid off their jobs from apparel factories,
resulting in them becoming prostitutes to get income. In 2003, US sanction was a
little bit shaky among the SPDC’s families and business men because they were
not able to transit their US dollar accounts from abroad following sanction. Even
Burmese embassy in Washington DC did not pay salaries for employees at least
three or four months. At that moment, the regime changed to use the currency
from dollar to euro. They worried about safety of their foreign accounts especially
Singapore. Six months later, they decreased their concern because US
government was not interested in sanction on Burma and it was not difficult to
transit their money for business. The most effective sanction is the targeted
sanction for the SPDC’s family members and their crony businessmen. They lost
their business and money after that. Some countries put their names and
business in the blacklist. Even they dislike the Muslim countries; they try to move
their asset from Singapore to Middle East countries.

In conclusion, my idea is we need more pressure and more constructive

engagements on Burmese regime. That is why we have to encourage US, EU and
UN to use both targeted sanctions and diplomatic weapons powerfully to the
SPDC.

Aung Lynn Htut