VKJR MNR32009

ART & SCIENCE
OF PROBLEM
ORIENTED
SURVEYING
• TEST THE FOLLOWING HYPOTHESES
– ALL BLACK ARE HEALTHY

– CO EDUCATION -INCREASE IN TESTERONE LEVELS
– DECISION TO CULL-MAD COW DISEASE
– ALL RED ARE PRONE TO DIABETES
– ALL GURKHAS ARE TOUGH FIGHTERS
– ALL DRUNKARDS ARE BAD SCIENTISTS
– PEOPLE WITH HIGH MORALS AND ETHICS ARE GOOD
SCIENTISTS
– SMOKERS ARE BAD SCIENTISTS
Dr.V.K.JAYARAGHAVENDRA
RAO,Senior Scientist
– 1:3 OR 9:3:3:1 – SEGREGATION

– FERTILITY REDN AMONG IT PROFSSNLS
– RED TERMITE EXTENT OF EPIDEMIC/ENDEMIC
– CONCEPTION IS LESS IN SUMMER
– FERTILITY OF SAHIWAL IS REDUCING
– CONCEPTION IS LESS IN CAPTIVE
BREEDING(MITHUN,YAK ETC.,)
– KANE FISH CATCH IS MORE IN RAINY
SEASON(JUNE- SEPTEMBER)
– BIRD FLU INTENSITY- INFECTION
CHARECTERISATION
– BISHNOI COMMUNITY ARE WELL BUILT, TALL,

FAIR, & HANDSOME
– HARYANA GIRLS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE AS
COMPARED TO PUNJAB GIRLS
– RAJASTHAN GIRLS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE
AS COMPARED TO KERALA GIRLS
– TESTESTERONE IS TRIGGERED FASTER THAN
PROGESTERONE-STUDY(deccan chronicle dtd 21st
July,2008)
PROBLEM : is one which requires research,extension or
development intervention
SURVEY= an investigation of the behaviour/opinions of the
Group of people or a sample
Or
A group of sampled units under observation
Eg., eriophid mite attack survey temporal and spatial
Eg., migration survey among NE Bodo community
Eg., PORK consumption survey in NE
Eg., PORK consumption behaviour in Coorg District KTK
Eg., Mad cow disease
Eg., Bird flu, Eg., white spot in prawns
Livelihoods assets
Human
Capital
Social Natural
Capital Capital
The Poor
Physical Financial
Capital Capital
The Sustainable Livelihoods
Framework
H
Vulnerability
Context
Shocks S N Policies Livelihood Livelihood
Seasonality The Poor influence Institutions Strategies Outcomes
Trends Processes
Changes
P F
Research questions appropriate for a survey?
•Behavior
•Attitude/beliefs/opinions
•Characteristics
•Expectations
•Self classification
•knowledge
ART= EXPRESSION OF CREATIVE HUMAN TALENT
SCIENCE= STUDY THROUGH OBSERVATION & EXPERIMENT
SURVEYING CREATIVELY THROUGH

OBSERVATION & EXPERIMENT
POPULATION SAMPLE
PARAMETER STATISTIC
SAMPLE SIZE=N SAMPLE SIZE=n
_
Population mean = µ Sample mean =
Population SD= σ Sample SD = s
Population proportion = P Sample proportion = ρ

_
t = x - µ / s /γn
The 2 SIGMA LIMITS(90% OF THE OBSVN)
_
X ± 2σ
Experiment:
1. subjects respond to treatment created by the
researcher
2. Causality is shown by timing of treatments
3. Associations between treatments are observed
4. Controlling alternative explanations
5. Physical control on treatments
Survey:
1. Sample many respondents and ask the same
question
2. Measure many variables
3. Test many hypothesis
4. Infer temporal order from questions about past
behavior
5. Survey researchers measure variables which
represent alternative explanations
6. Survey research is correlational
7. Approximations of the rigorous test are done
Types of surveys
1. Mail and self administered questionnaires

2. Telephone,email,computer based
interviews/surveys
3. Face to face interviews
4. Panel technique-select group and study
attitude(opinion poll)
5. PRA and special situations
Steps in sample surveys
1. Design and planning phase
2. Data collection phase
3. Data analysis and presentation
•Develop the survey instrument/questionnaire/semi

Structured interview schedule(PRA
Write questions to measure variables
Decide on response categories
Organise question sequence
Design questionnaire layout
•Plan a system for recording answers,items of

informn
•Pilot test the instrument and train the

interviewers
(sampling)
• Draw the sample by design or sampling design
Define target population
Decide on type of sample
Develop sampling frame
Decide on sample size
Select a sample
Sampling
Universe
draw
Sample which represents the population
Why should we sample for a survey?ROLE
• make sample more efficient
•Manageable
•Cost effective-Provide for lowest possible
Cost
Definition of sampling
Procedure by which some members

of a given population are selected as
representatives of the entire population
Terms used in sampling surveys
Population: a large pool of cases or elements(all the
cases/elements)/even the term universe is used
Target population: specific pool of cases with a criteria
Sampling frame ; a specific list of all cases matching the
criteria
Sampling element: unit of analysis or case
Sampling ratio: is the ratio of the sample to the population
Definition of sampling terms
• Sampling unit
– Subject under observation on which information is
collected
• Sampling fraction
– Ratio between the sample size and the population
size
• Sampling frame
– Any list of all the sampling units in the population
• Sampling scheme
– Method of selecting sampling units from sampling
frame
Terms used in sampling surveys
Sampling design= Rule to draw the sample
Random sample= is not a haphazard sample but based
On the laws of probability
Objectives of presentation
• Definition of sampling
• Why do we use samples?
• Concept of representativeness
• Main methods of sampling
• Sampling error
• Sample size calculation
Why do we use samples ?
Get information from large populations

– At minimal cost
– At maximum speed
– At increased accuracy
– Using enhanced tools
Sampling
Precision
Cost
What we need to know
• Concepts
– Representativeness
– Sampling methods
– Choice of the right design
• Calculations
– Sampling error
– Design effect
– Sample size
Sampling and representativeness
Sampling
Population
Sample
Target Population
Target Population  Sampling Population  Sample

Representativeness
• Person
• Demographic characteristics (age, sex…)
• Exposure/susceptibility
• Place (ex : urban vs. rural)
• Time
• Seasonality
• Day of the week
• Time of the day
Ensure representativeness before starting,

confirm once completed !!!!!!
Place of sampling
in descriptive surveys
• Define objectives
• Define resources available
• Identify study population
• Identify variables to study
• Define precision required
• Establish plan of analysis (questionnaire)
• Create sampling frame
• Select sample
• Pilot data collection
• Collect data
• Analyse data
• Communicate results
• Use results Dr.V.K.JAYARAGHAVENDRA
How large should your sample size be?
•Smaller the popn bigger the sample size and vice
versa
•1000 popn-30 percent should be the sample
•10,000 popn 10 percent should be the sample
•For large population 1,50,000 –1 percent sample
•For very large population(10 million and above)-
0.025 percent
Selecting a sampling method
• Population to be studied
– Size/geographical distribution
– Heterogeneity with respect to variable
• Level of precision required
• Resources available
• Importance of having a precise estimate
of the sampling error
Steps in estimating sample size
• Identify major study variable
• Determine type of estimate (%, mean, ratio,...)
• Indicate expected frequency of factor of interest
• Decide on desired precision of the estimate
• Decide on acceptable risk that estimate will fall outside
its real population value
• Adjust for estimated design effect
• Adjust for expected response rate
• (Adjust for population size? In case of small size
population only)
Sample size formula in
descriptive survey
Simple random / systematic sampling
z² * p * q 1.96²*0.15*0.85
n = -------------- ---------------------- = 544
d² 0.03²
Cluster sampling
z² * p * q 2*1.96²*0.15*0.85
n = g* -------------- ------------------------ = 1088
d² 0.03²
z: alpha risk express in z-score

p: expected prevalence
q: 1 - p
d: absolute precision
g: design effect Dr.V.K.JAYARAGHAVENDRA
Principle of sampling
Small sample –small increase produce big gains
50-100-errors reduce to 2.1% from 7.1%
1000-2000-errors reduce from 1.6-1.1%
Sample size depends upon
1. Degree of accuracy
2. Degree of variability
3. Number of variables examined
When above increases increase sample size

SURVEY becomes scientific
provided?
•Formulated for research
purpose
•Planned systematically
•Recorded systematically
•Subjected to cross
check(triangulation)
•Control on reliability and
validity.
Limitations of SURVEY/observation as a
research tool
 Perceptions and
 inferences
 Selectivity and frame of reference
 Social phenomena dispersed
temporally and spatially
 Emotional entanglements of observer
 Observers anxiety
 Sensitizing effect by observer
 Validity of theoritical interpretation
Increasing reliability/validity of SURVEYS
 Proper definition,Conceptualisation,&
Operationalisation of indicators
 Increase confidence in judgement
 Improve training and practice in pra
 Reduce categories (not more than 50)
 Explanation of categories and rules for its
use
 Clearing doubts of trainees
 Clarification of doubts in field
Aids for observation
SUPPLEMENTING SURVEYS
 Diary
 Note down key words to write a full
report
 Write details during each phase of field
work
 Reanalyse and categorise the
notes/points daily
 Use sociometry /social /other maps as
aids
 Use camera/video/
 Tape recorder
Kendall’s coe-fficient of concordance (W)
s
W= ------------------
1
---- X k2(N3-N) -k∑T
12
s=(Rj-MeanRj)2.....sum of squared deviations
from mean of ranks judged by ‘k’ judges on ‘N’
indicators
∑ Rj
Mean Rj= -------
N
∑(t3-t)
T= .................
12
> 30 INDICATORS USE ‘Z’
APPROXIMATION
RELIABILITY
 A criterion is stable or
reproducible
 Reliability contributes to validity
 Reliable instrument need not be
valid
CHARECTERISTICS
1.Stability :
2.Dependability:
3.Accuracy
4.Least error of measurement
5.Equivalence:
Reliability = True variance St2
Total variance S2
X= Xt ± Xe
S2 = St2 ± Se2
(divide throughout by S2)
1= St2 ± Se2
S2 S2
Validity
Internal validity = epistemic
correlation betn TD & OD
Type I Type III
TypeII
External validity:
generalizability to populations
Criterion related validity
•Relevance
•Bias free
•Reliability
•Availability
Quality of an estimate
Precision No precision Precision but

& validity no validity
Random Systematic
error ! error (Bias) !
Types of samples
• Non-probability samples
• Probability samples
NON PROBABILITY SAMPLE PROBABILITY SAMPLE
(no sampling frame) (sampling frame)
Haphazard: select anyone Simple: true random procedure
convenient
Quota: select anyone in Systematic ; select every kth

predetermined groups person
Purposive ; select anyone in hard Stratified ; randomly select people

to find target popn in predetermined groups
Snowball: select people Cluster : take multistage random

connected to one another sample in several levels
Non probability samples
• Quotas
• Sample reflects population structure
• Time/resources constraints
• Convenience samples (purposive units)

• Biased
• Best or worst scenario
Probability of being chosen : unknown

Probability samples
• Random sampling
• Each subject has a known probability of
being chosen
• Reduces possibility of selection bias
• Allows application of statistical theory to
results
Sampling error
• No sample is the exact mirror image of

the population
• Magnitude of error can be measured in
probability samples
• Expressed by standard error
– of mean, proportion, differences, etc
• Function of
– amount of variability in measuring factor of
interest
– sample size
Methods used in probability samples
• Simple random sampling

• Systematic sampling
• Stratified sampling
• Multistage sampling
• Cluster sampling
NON PROBABILITY SAMPLE
Haphazard sample :
• select anyone convenient
•Seriously misrepresents the popn
When to use:
For entertainment value(MTV Bakra)
Shortfall:
Distorted view
Seriously misrepresent the popn
Quota sample :
• identify categories (male/female)
•5 males 5 females under 30 years of age
•Then use haphazard sampling
When to use:
For entertainment value(MTV Bakra)
Shortfall:
Distorted view
Seriously misrepresent the popn
Purposive sample :
• judgemental
•Uses judgement of a n expert
•Informative cases
When to use:
When difficult to reach
To identify a case in depth
Shortfall:
Cannot generalize for a population
Purely opinionistic
Snowball sample :
• interconnected networks
•sociometry
•Key informants
When to use:
Used in PRA and RRA
Shortfall:
Cannot generalize for a population
Purely opinionistic
Has temporal and spatial limitations
PROBABILITY SAMPLE
Random sample :
• use random number/table
•With replacement
•Without replacement
When to use:
When population is well defined
When sampling frame is established
Shortfall:
Cannot generalize for various groups
Simple random sampling
• Principle
–Equal chance of drawing each unit
• Procedure
–Number all units
–Randomly draw units
• Advantages
–Simple
–Sampling error easily measured
• Disadvantages
–Need complete list of units
–Does not always achieve best
representativeness
–Units may be scattered
Example: evaluate the prevalence of tooth
decay among the 1200 children attending a
school
• List of children attending the school

• Children numerated from 1 to 1200
• Sample size = 100 children
• Random sampling of 100 numbers between 1
and 1200
How to randomly select?
Table of random numbers
EPITABLE: random number listing
EPITABLE: random number listing
PROBABILITY SAMPLE
Systematic sample :
• number the sample
•Select the kth elements
When to use:
Shortfall:
Cannot generalize for various groups
Systematic sampling
• N = 1200, and n = 60
⇒ sampling fraction = 1200/60 = 20
• List persons from 1 to 1200
• Randomly select a number between 1 and
20 (ex : 8)
⇒ 1st person selected = the 8th on the
list
⇒ 2nd person = 8 + 20 = the 28th
etc .....
Systematic sampling
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 ……..
Systematic sampling
PROBABILITY SAMPLE
Stratified sample :
• divide the popns into subpopns
•Subpopns=strata
•Random sample from sub popn using random or systematic samplng
When to use:
When variation is there in the strata
Shortfall:
Time consuming
costly
Stratified sampling
• Principle :
– Classify population into internally

homogeneous subgroups (strata)
– Draw sample in each strata
– Combine results of all strata
Stratified sampling
• Advantages
– More precise if variable associated with
strata
– All subgroups represented, allowing
separate conclusions about each of
them
• Disadvantages
– Sampling error difficult to measure
– Loss of precision if very small numbers
sampled in individual strata
Example: Stratified sampling
• Determine vaccination coverage in a

country
• One sample drawn in each region
• Estimates calculated for each stratum
• Each stratum weighted to obtain
estimate for country (average)
Multiple stage sampling
Principle
• = consecutive samplings
• example :
sampling unit = household
– 1rst stage : drawing areas or blocks

– 2nd stage : drawing buildings, houses
– 3rd stage : drawing households
PROBABILITY SAMPLE
Cluster sample :
• when the population is dispersed spatially on a large area
•Randomly select districts then taluks then villages(3 stage)then farmers
•When clusters list is available
When to use:
When population list is not there
But the list of clusters(subgroups are there)
Shortfall:
Time consuming
Requires lot of information
Cluster sampling
• Principle
– Random sample of groups (“clusters”)

of units
– In selected clusters, all units or
proportion (sample) of units included
Example: Cluster sampling
Section 1 Section 2
Section 3
Section 5
Section 4
Cluster sampling
• Advantages
– Simple as complete list of sampling units
within population not required
– Less travel/resources required
• Disadvantages
– Imprecise if clusters homogeneous and
therefore sample variation greater than
population variation (large design effect)
– Sampling error difficult to measure
EPI cluster sampling
To evaluate vaccination coverage:

• Without list of persons
• Total population of villages
• Randomly choose 30 clusters
• 30 cluster of 7 children each= 210 children
Drawing the clusters
You need :
– Map of the region
– Distribution of population (by villages or area)
– Age distribution (population 12-23 m :3%)
Village Pop. 12-23

A 53000 1600
B 7300 220
C 106000 3200
D 13000 400
E 26500 800
F 6600 200
G 40000 1200
H 6600 200
I 53000 1600
J 13200 400
Distribution of the clusters
Compute cumulated population

A 1600 1600
B 220 1820
C 3200 5020
D 400 5420
E 800 6220
F 200 6420
G 1200 7620
H 200 7820
I 1600 9420
J 400 9820
Total population = 9820
Distribution of the clusters
A 1600 IIII
Then compute sampling fraction :
B 1820 I
K= 9820 = 327 C 5020 IIIIIIIIII
30
Draw a random number (between 1 D 5420 I
and 327) E 6220 II
F 6420 I
Example: 62 G 7620 IIII
H 7820 I
Start from the village including “62” I 9420 IIIII
and draw the clusters adding the
J 9820 I
sampling fraction
EPITABLE: cluster sample size
calculation
Drawing households and children
On the spot
Go to the center of the village , choose direction
(random)
Number the houses in this direction
 Ex: 21
Draw random number (between 1 and 21) to
identify the first house to visit
From this house progress until finding the 7

children ( itinerary rules fixed beforehand)
PROBABILITY SAMPLE
Random digit dialing sample :

• you can stratify/cluster/random sample also
•Uses the telephone directory
•Population is the telephone directory
When to use:
used for telephone interviews
Shortfall:
Not so much used in India and in agricultural situations
May suit only big farmers
EPITABLE: Calculating design effect
2. Data collection phase
• Organize the survey
• Locate and contact the respondents
• Make introductory statements or provide instructions
• Ask questions and record answers
• Thank respondent and continue to next respondent
• End data collection and organize data

3. Data analysis and presentation
• Tabulate properly using MS excel,any spreadsheet
• Use appropriate statistical tools
• Proper interpretation using your subject and
experience
Advantages
1. Great deal of information can be collected
2. Large population can be used
3. Reduces labour
4. Information is accurate
5. Variety of information can be collected
Disadvantages
1. In-depth study not possible
2. Costly
3. Time consuming
4. Scope for sampling error
Conclusions
• Probability samples are the best

• Beware of …
– refusals
– absentees
– “do not know”
Conclusions
• If in doubt…
Call a statistician !!!!

VKJR MNR32009

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ART & SCIENCE

– ALL BLACK ARE HEALTHY

– 1:3 OR 9:3:3:1 – SEGREGATION

– BISHNOI COMMUNITY ARE WELL BUILT, TALL,

SCIENCE= STUDY THROUGH OBSERVATION & EXPERIMENT

SURVEYING CREATIVELY THROUGH

SAMPLE SIZE=N SAMPLE SIZE=n

Population SD= σ Sample SD = s

Population proportion = P Sample proportion = ρ

1. subjects respond to treatment created by the

2. Causality is shown by timing of treatments

3. Associations between treatments are observed

4. Controlling alternative explanations

5. Physical control on treatments

1. Mail and self administered questionnaires

1. Design and planning phase

2. Data collection phase

3. Data analysis and presentation

•Develop the survey instrument/questionnaire/semi

•Plan a system for recording answers,items of

•Pilot test the instrument and train the

• Draw the sample by design or sampling design

Define target population

Decide on type of sample

Develop sampling frame

Decide on sample size

Sample which represents the population

Procedure by which some members

Population: a large pool of cases or elements(all the

cases/elements)/even the term universe is used

Target population: specific pool of cases with a criteria

Sampling frame ; a specific list of all cases matching the

Sampling element: unit of analysis or case

Sampling ratio: is the ratio of the sample to the population

Sampling design= Rule to draw the sample

Random sample= is not a haphazard sample but based

On the laws of probability

Get information from large populations

Target Population  Sampling Population  Sample

Ensure representativeness before starting,

•Smaller the popn bigger the sample size and vice

•1000 popn-30 percent should be the sample

•10,000 popn 10 percent should be the sample

•For large population 1,50,000 –1 percent sample

•For very large population(10 million and above)-

z: alpha risk express in z-score

Small sample –small increase produce big gains

50-100-errors reduce to 2.1% from 7.1%

1000-2000-errors reduce from 1.6-1.1%

3. Number of variables examined

When above increases increase sample size

Precision No precision Precision but

Quota: select anyone in Systematic ; select every kth

Purposive ; select anyone in hard Stratified ; randomly select people

Snowball: select people Cluster : take multistage random

• Convenience samples (purposive units)

Probability of being chosen : unknown

• No sample is the exact mirror image of

• Simple random sampling

• List of children attending the school

– Classify population into internally

• Determine vaccination coverage in a