JUNE 2013 YOUTH POLL

MONTHLY SNAPSHOT
SNAPSHOT DETAILS
AlthoughmonthlyestimatesarenottheofficialYouthPollmetrics,theyshowpropensityremaininglowerthan
theFall2012metricattheoveralllevelandformales,whilefemalepropensityseemstobestabilizing.
TheproportionofWhiteyouthwhoreportedtheyhaveeverspokenwitharecruiterhastrendeddownward.
BlackpropensitydecreasedfromMarchtoApril2013buthasreturnedtotheFall2012level.

PROPENSITY:BY GENDER

MONTHLY SNAPSHOT*

30%

Aggregate
26% 26% 26%

25%

24%

24%

23%

23%

23%

22%

22%
21% 21%

18%18%18%
17% 18%
17%
16%
16%

20%
20%
19%
19%

18% 18% 18%

19%

18%

18%
17%

16%
15%
15%
15%
14%
14%14%
13%
13%

11%

18%

15%

18%

12%

10%

10% 9% 10%

10%

10% 10%
9% 9%

8%

14%
13%
13%
13%12%
13%
12%
12%
12%
11%

10%
9%

9%
8% 8%

8%

7%

7%

5%

10%
9%

9%

7%

7%

7% 7%

6%

6%

18%

18%

12%

12%

13%

13%

8%
8%

8% 8%

6%

17%

15%

10%
9% 9%

10%
10%

18%
17%

17%
16%

15%15%

12%
12%

9%

20%

20%

20%

15%
15%
14%
14%
14%14%
13% 14%

15%

10%

Not official metric

Female

27%

24%

20%

Male

7%
8%

6%

6%

5%

Note: Youth ages 16 to 21. Significant difference tests were conducted from April 2001 through Fall 2012. *For June 2013, monthly snapshot estimates were conducted using a rolling average of two
consecutive months (previous, current). For Mar 2013, Apr 2013, and May 2013, monthly snapshot estimates were conducted using a rolling average of three consecutive months (previous, current,
subsequent). Monthly snapshot estimates are not the official Youth Poll metrics.

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Fall-12

Summer-12

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-10

Dec-10

Dec-09

Jun-09

Dec-08

Jun-08

Dec-07

Jun-07

Jun-06

Dec-05

Jun-05

Nov-04

Nov-03

May-04

Jun-03

Nov-02

Nov-01

Aug-01

Apr-01

99

98

97

96

95

94

93

92

91

90

89

88

87

86

85

84

0%

Mar-13

4% 4%

= significant change from

PAGE 1 <
previous Youth Poll

JUNE 2013 YOUTH POLL

MONTHLY SNAPSHOT
COMPOSITE RESERVE PROPENSITY:BY GENDER

5%

7% 7%
5%

SERVICESPECIFIC PROPENSITY

7%

8%

8%

Note: Youth ages 16 to 21. Significant difference tests were conducted from April 2001 through Fall 2012. *For June 2013, monthly snapshot estimates were conducted using a rolling average of two
consecutive months (previous, current). For Mar 2013, Apr 2013, and May 2013, monthly snapshot estimates were conducted using a rolling average of three consecutive months (previous, current,
subsequent). Monthly snapshot estimates are not the official Youth Poll metrics.

6%

4%

4%

Apr-13

7%
7%

8%
8%
7%
6%
4%

9%
8%
8%
7%
5%

Jun-13

8%

8%
7%
7%

May-13

9%

Fall-12
Mar-13

Summer-12

Dec-11

Jun-11

Dec-10

Jun-10

Dec-09

6%
4%
4%

Jun-09

6%

8% 9% 9% 9%
8% 8% 9% 9%
7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7%
8% 7% 7% 8% 7%
7% 8% 8%
7%
7% 7% 7%
7%
7%
8%
7%
7% 7%
7% 7% 6% 6% 7%
7%
6% 6%
5% 5% 5%
5%
5%
5% 4%
4%

Dec-08

7%

Dec-07

Jun-07

Jun-06

Dec-05

Jun-05

Nov-04

May-04

Nov-03

Not official metric

Coast Guard

Jun-08

Marine Corps

Jun-03

Nov-02

Nov-01

Aug-01

Apr-01

99

98

97

96

95

94

93

92

91

90

89

88

87

86

0%

Air Force

11%
10%11% 11%
11% 10%
10%
10%
9% 10% 10%
10% 10%10%
10%
9%
11%
10% 10%
10%
10%
10%
9%
9% 7% 9%
9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
9%
9% 9%
9% 8%
7%
8%
8%
9% 8%
10%
7% 8%
8%
8%
9%
8% 8%
8%
7% 8% 7% 8%9%
7% 7%
8% 8% 8%
6%
7%
10%
7%
8%
8% 7% 8%
8% 9%
6%
8% 8%
7%
8% 9% 7% 8%
7%
8% 7%
5%
7%
8%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
8%
7%
7%
7%
7% 6% 6%
6% 6% 7% 6%
6%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
6%
6% 6% 6% 6%
5%
5%5% 5% 5%
4% 5%
6% 5%
5% 5%
4%

85

5%

Navy

13%
13%
13%
12% 12% 11% 12%
12%
12%11%11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%

84

10%

12%
10%

12% 12%
9% 10%

MONTHLY SNAPSHOT*

Army

15%

12%
9%

Jun-13

9% 10%10%

Jun-11

Jun-10

12%11%13%

Dec-10

Dec-09

Jun-09

Dec-08

Jun-08

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-06

Jun-05

Dec-05

Nov-04

Nov-03

May-04

Jun-03

Nov-02

Nov-01

Aug-01

99

Apr-01

98

97

96

95

94

93

92

91

90

89

88

87

86

85

0%

84

22%
21%21%21%20%
21%
21%
20%20%20%
20%19%20%20%19%21%
20%
20%
19%
18%
18%18%
18%
18%18%
17%
16%
20%
16%
15%15% 16%14%14% 16%
15%
15%15%14%15%15%
15%14%15%15%
15%16%14%14%
14% 13%12%
14%
13%13%
12%
13%
10% 10%
12%
12%
9% 10%10%
14%
10%
12%
11%11%
11%11%
11%
11%10%
11%11%
10%
10%11%
10%
9% 9%
9% 9%
9%
9% 9%
8% 9%
8% 9%
8% 8%
8% 7%
6% 6% 6% 7%

Not official metric

May-13

Female

Apr-13

Male

Fall-12
Mar-13

Aggregate

Summer-12

29%
25%25%
25%25%

Dec-11

30%

MONTHLY SNAPSHOT*

= significant change from

PAGE 2 <
previous Youth Poll

JUNE 2013 YOUTH POLL

MONTHLY SNAPSHOT
MONTHLY SNAPSHOT*

PROPENSITY:BY RACE/ETHNICITY

White

10%

Black

10%

Hispanic

11%

9%

10%

11%
10%

9%

7%

7% 8%

9%

Not official metric

58%

39%
36%

46%
46%

42%

Dec-11

Jun-11

Jun-10

Jun-08

Jun-07

Jun-05

38%
38%
33%

50%
43%

50%
35%

Nov-04

49%
43%

40%
35%

40%
37%

44%
44%
43%

45%

45% 44%
39% 38%

42%
39%

38% 33%

23%

22%

26%

15%

Note: Youth ages 16 to 21. Significant difference tests were conducted from April 2001 through Fall 2012. *For June 2013, monthly snapshot estimates were conducted using a rolling average of two
consecutive months (previous, current). For Mar 2013, Apr 2013, and May 2013, monthly snapshot estimates were conducted using a rolling average of three consecutive months (previous, current,
subsequent). Monthly snapshot estimates are not the official Youth Poll metrics. **Sample size for Asians is generally less than 100 each month and should be interpreted cautiously.

Jun-13

55%
52%

46%

May-13

53%

64%
60%

43%

Nov-02

8%

Apr-13

53%

56%
55%

35%

0%

9%

Fall-12
Mar-13

61%
59%

Summer-12

58%

18%

MONTHLY SNAPSHOT*

% Yes

64%
63%

19%
17%
10%

Asian**

EVER SPOKEN WITH A RECRUITER?

70%

18%

Jun-13

8%

10%

20%

Apr-13

7%

10%

11%

Fall-12

Dec-05

Legend:

8%

11%

10%

18%
15%

Mar-13

8%
12%

17%
14%

Summer-12

16%
13%

22%
20% 20%

22%

17%
16%

Dec-11

11% 13%
10%
9%

12% 11%
9%

Nov-04

May-04

11%

12%

Jun-05

13%

Nov-03

12%

Jun-03

10%

Nov-02

Nov-01

9%

Aug-01

Apr-01

10%

0%

9%

14%
12%

14%

Jun-11

16%

Dec-10

15%

Jun-10

16%

16% 16% 15% 18%

16%
15%
16% 15% 15% 15%

Dec-09

21%

Jun-08

16%

Dec-07

15%

Jun-07

17% 14%

11%

10%

23%

20%

May-13

25%

22%

Jun-06

16%

27%

25%

Jun-09

24% 25%

20%

Dec-08

27%

30%
20%

Not official metric

% Propensed

40%

= significant change from

PAGE 3 <
previous Youth Poll

JUNE 2013 YOUTH POLL

MONTHLY SNAPSHOT
EMPLOYMENT DIFFICULTY

MONTHLY SNAPSHOT*
Not official metric

Legend:

White

Black

49%

Hispanic

Mar-13

50%
44%
42%

50%
45%
43%

38%

39%

44%
37%

Apr-13

52%
45%
48% 49%
47%
42%
34% 37%

Fall-12

51%
44%

Summer-12

54%
48%

46%

49%
44%

Jun-13

61%
53% 59% 55% 56%
53%

Dec-11

52%

Jun-10

50%

64%
56%
60%
51%

Jun-11

51% 54%
48%
50%

Dec-09

48%

Jun-09

Dec-08

Jun-08

Dec-07

Jun-07

27%

30% 34% 33% 33%

28%
29%
37%
22% 20% 20%
29%
26%
22% 22% 23%

Jun-06

30%

41%
34%

41%

Dec-05

29%

29%

35%
31%

Jun-05

29%

May-04

Nov-01

27%

30%

Nov-03

20%

36% 38%
25%
30% 30%
27%

Jun-03

19%

41%

Nov-02

18%

Aug-01

0%

24% 31% 28%

31% 22%
23%

Apr-01

25%

41%

Nov-04

50%

43%

50%
48%

Dec-10

75%

May-13

% Very difficult/Almost impossible to find full-time employment

Asian**

MILITARY VS.CIVILIAN PAY

MONTHLY SNAPSHOT*
Not official metric

% Military pays better

40%

10%

Dec-11

10%

Jun-11

Dec-10

0%

15%
11%

18%

16%

14%

8%

10%

31%

18%
15%
5%

Note: Youth ages 16 to 21. Significant difference tests were conducted from April 2001 through Fall 2012. *For June 2013, monthly snapshot estimates were conducted using a rolling average of two
consecutive months (previous, current). For Mar 2013, Apr 2013, and May 2013, monthly snapshot estimates were conducted using a rolling average of three consecutive months (previous, current,
subsequent). Monthly snapshot estimates are not the official Youth Poll metrics. **Sample size for Asians is generally less than 100 each month and should be interpreted cautiously.

18%

18%

21%
15%

14%

15%

6%

6%

7%

Jun-13

15%
22%

16%

May-13

20%

21%
18%

31%
28%

Apr-13

22%

32%
28%

Mar-13

26%

32%
29%

Fall-12

30%

30%

Summer-12

31%

= significant change from

PAGE 4 <
previous Youth Poll

JUNE 2013 YOUTH POLL

MONTHLY SNAPSHOT
UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS
40%

29%

30%

28%

30%
28%
27%

29%

27%
25%

32%
31% 31%

32%
30%

30%
28% 28%
26%

26%

29%
28%
29%
28% 27%

28%
27%

26% 26%

27%

30%

27%
27%
27%
24%
26%
22% 22%
23%
23%
25% 25%
25%
23%
22%
22%
22% 22% 22%
22%
22%
21%
21%
22%
21%
21%
23%
21%
22% 21%
20%
21%
20%
20%
21%
20%
20%
21% 21%
19%
19% 20%
19%
19% 18%
19%
19%
19% 19%
18%
18%
18% 19%
19%
16%
18%
18%
18%
18%
18%
18%
18%
17%
18%
17%
17%
17% 17%
17%
17%
17% 18%
16%
17%
15% 16%
17%
18%
16% 16%
16%
16%
18%
18%
18%
15%
15%
18%
17%
17%
14%
17% 18%
13%
17%
16%16%
13%
17%
16%16% 16% 16%
14%
16%
16% 16%
15%
16% 15% 16%
16%
16%
16%
15%
13%
15% 15%
16%
15%
12% 12%
15%
12%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15% 15%
15% 14%
11%
14%
11%
15%
15% 14%
11%
14%
10%
10%
13% 14% 13%
14%
14%13%
10% 10%
13%
13% 13%
10% 10%
12% 12% 12%
12%
12% 11% 12% 12%
11%
11%
10%10%
10%
10%
9%
9%
9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
25%

10%

31%

27%

24%

20%

33%
33%
31%
32%
32%
31%
31%
31% 31%
30% 30%
31%
30%

24%
23%
22% 22%
20%

0%
J F MAM J J A S ON D J FMAM J J A S ON D J F MAM J J A S ON D J F MAM J J A S ON D J F MAM J J A S ON D J FMAM J J A S ON D J F MAM J
2007

2008

Legend:

2009

White

2010

Black

2011

2012

2013

Hispanic

Note: Youth ages 1624. Rates reported are not seasonally adjusted. Data are taken from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey.

PAGE 5 <