ReportType

T_ReportAbs tract

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T_RankI nfo

-A

20.00

6
2012 09 11 16.53

LED

LED

2012-09-12

T_MarketI nfo

()
()
()
()
12 /
(%)

23,869.55
11,419.25
1,444.01
690.82
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T_YieldI nfo

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14.55

27.74
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36.57
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T_Analys t

jiangying@essence.com.cn
S1450511110001

T_CONTACTnalys t

T_FSAndV SAbs tract

T_RelatedReport

()

Growth(%)

Growth(%)

2010
86,261.1

2011
174,731.2

2012E
351,935.9

2013E
577,630.8

2014E
747,139.1

83.4%

102.6%

101.4%

64.1%

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23.7%

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0.0%

LED
2010-06-04

(600703)

1. LED ............................................................................. 4
2. LED ............................................................... 5
2.1.
2.2.
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2.4.
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2012 LED ................................................................................................... 5

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3. ............................................................................................................. 15
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........................... 16
................................................................................................. 17

4. ............................................................................................................. 17
5. ............................................................................................................................... 19
6. ...................................................................................................................................... 19

1 ......................................................................................................................... 4
2 ................................................................................................................................ 4
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6 LED ..................................................................................................... 5
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9 LED ............................................................................ 6
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122012 2011 ............................................................................... 7
13 MOCVD ...................................................................................................................... 7
14 LED .............................................................................................................. 7
15........................................................................................................................... 8
16Aixtron ....................................................................................................................... 10
17Veeco ......................................................................................................................... 10
18Aixtron 2013 LED MOCVD ................................................................... 10
19Veeco 2013 MOCVD 400-800 / ........................................ 10
20 LED LED ................................................................................. 11
21 7 ............................................................................. 11
22 7 32% ............................................................................... 11
23....................................................................................................... 11
24......................................................................................................................... 12
25 ............................................................................................................................ 12
26......................................................................................................................... 13
27 ..................................................................................................................... 13
28 ..................................................................................................................... 13
29 ..................................................................................................................... 13
30 .......................................................................................................... 14
31 LED ........................................................................................................................... 15
32 ..................................................................................................................... 16
33 ..................................................................................................................... 16
34....................................................................................................... 17
35 ............................................................................. 17
36 ..................................................................................................................... 18
1 .................................................................................................................. 4
2 ..................................................................................................................... 8
3 ..................................................................................................................... 9
4 LED 2012 ............................................................................................. 10
5LED ................................................................................................................... 12
6 LED ............................................................................. 13
7 ....................................................................................................................... 14
8LED ...................................................................................................................... 15
9 MOCVD ........................................................................................................ 16
10......................................................................................................................... 18
11 .................................................................................................................................... 19
12 ............................................................................................................................ 19
13 ..................................................................................................................... 20
3

(600703)

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(600703)

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(600703)

2.3.

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2.4. LED

MOCVD LED Aixtron Veeco

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(600703)
16Aixtron
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1500

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500

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2011

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200%

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06-01
06-05
06-09
07-01
07-05
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2.5. LED LED

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11

(600703)
5LED

2008
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200

2010

2011

2012

2013

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Digitimes

2010

2009

0
2009

2008

100
2008

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59.5

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350
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4000
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28

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2010

2008

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2016

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100%
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2014

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2007

2006

2005

2004

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2001

2000

1999

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1998

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2009

2008

2007

2006

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13

(600703)

2-3 LED
2020 54%
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8 9 2011
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Digitimes

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3.
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3
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15

(600703)
2011 107 MOCVD
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3-4

17

(600703)
36

400,000
350,000
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19

2011

MOCVD
MOCVD

(600703)
2011 3 7
2011 2 25
2011 2 18
2011 1 18
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2010 12 31
2010 12 28
2010 12 23
2010 12 17
2010 10 21
2010 9 29
2010 8 19
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10,080
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MOCVD

4,320
3,120
3,000
5,760

8,952

3,000

2010 3 31
12,473.29

MOCVD
MOCVD
MOCVD

MOCVD

13

2011 9
27
2011 9
8
2010 12
4
2010 1
15

6.8

4.5

LED
60-200W

50MW
LED
90-200W
LED
90W200W

LED

LED

LED

4
2011 2012
6 1
2011
2012
2013
2010
2011
2012

16

33.3

20


T_FSAndV S

2010
86,261.1
45,383.8
518.2
607.5
7,655.5
2,704.3
128.6
-144.6
29,118.5
25,373.5
54,492.0
11,432.3
41,926.5
2010
190,446.5
19,277.0
4,878.0
13,172.1
31,019.9
910.5
5,813.3
89,851.0
202,789.2
41,646.9
1,657.1
601,864.8

2011
174,731.2
100,807.8
484.9
1,154.8
17,153.9
2,175.7
985.9
222.5
52,190.7
84,460.1
136,650.8
30,646.0
93,617.1
2011
145,406.9
36,541.8
11,363.8
81,337.2
91,780.2
501.6
10,690.7
246,992.1
233,786.9
66,830.1
3,149.6
940,977.3

2012E
351,935.9
234,428.7
976.6
2,217.2
22,875.8
3,527.0
499.1
200.0
87,611.5
24,948.8
112,560.3
25,243.3
82,951.1
2012E
97,933.1
73,953.0
21,633.4
175,108.7
211,446.2
582.7
416,755.2
140,272.8
62,374.9
1,343.5

2013E
577,630.8
392,186.9
1,602.9
3,408.0
35,813.1
4,430.0
1,312.6
300.0
139,177.3
24,943.1
164,120.4
36,806.4
120,948.2
2013E
128,871.0
123,758.4
35,246.1
340,779.8
326,386.1
1,572.4
520,385.0
84,164.3
58,216.6
1,388.6

2014E
747,139.1
510,497.4
2,073.3
4,333.4
44,828.3
6,432.0
1,342.5
400.0
178,032.1
24,939.4
202,971.5
45,519.4
149,579.5
2014E
59,771.1
157,775.4
46,702.2
595,793.3
450,044.7
1,561.8
575,571.8
50,499.2
54,335.6
1,475.4

EBITDA
EBIT
NOPLAT

EBITDA/
EBIT/

ROE
ROA
ROIC

1,201,403.4 1,620,768.1 1,993,530.4

- 26,869.8 27,000.0 17,000.0 39,646.2
/
15,942.1 28,597.6 68,663.5 120,088.8 150,120.0

472.2 -21,179.0 -18,117.9 -11,654.6 -10,962.7

39,667.0 145,707.6 145,707.6 145,707.6 145,707.6

54,737.3 154,410.5 304,005.8 555,705.7 730,075.9

110,818.6 350,272.6 527,259.0 826,847.5

1,054,587.1
5,053.2 24,222.0 28,587.9 34,953.6 42,826.2

65,637.0 144,401.4 144,401.4 144,401.4 144,401.4

DPS()
420,356.0 422,081.3 501,155.2 614,565.7 751,715.7

491,046.2 590,704.7 674,144.4 793,920.6 938,943.3

2010
2011
2012E
2013E
2014E

43,059.7 106,004.8 82,951.1 120,948.2 149,579.5

EPS()
10,065.7 23,515.5 28,459.7 36,792.8 42,453.7
:
BVPS()
128.6
985.9
499.1
1,312.6
1,342.5

PE(X)

PB(X)
3,317.5
2,782.9
3,527.0
4,430.0
6,432.0
P/FCF

43.5
-196.1
-200.0
-300.0
-400.0
P/S

1,133.2 12,387.7
4,365.8
6,365.7
7,872.6
EV/EBITDA

26,893.7 53,391.9 -67,923.1 -36,941.5

-220,562.8
CAGR(%)
30,230.7 86,066.6 51,679.7 132,607.8 -13,282.5

PEG
-229,511.3
3,392.3 -11,700.1 -8,600.1

-267,159.2
ROIC/WACC
287,914.5 136,237.4 -23,140.1 -21,967.7
3,784.8

REP
Wind.NET

21

2012-09-10

2010

2011

2012E

2013E

2014E

83.4%
95.6%
132.7%
81.9%
95.4%
135.8%
264.4%
236.1%

102.6%
79.2%
123.3%
85.2%
70.8%
136.4%
86.6%
20.3%

101.4%
67.9%
-11.4%
54.5%
67.6%
-16.8%
22.8%
14.1%

64.1%
58.9%
45.8%
50.8%
57.6%
45.2%
12.5%
17.8%

29.3%
27.9%
23.7%
25.8%
28.5%
24.2%
28.6%
18.3%

47.4%
33.8%
48.6%
48.4%
36.9%

42.3%
29.9%
53.6%
44.3%
31.1%

33.4%
24.9%
23.6%
34.0%
25.9%

32.1%
24.1%
20.9%
31.2%
24.9%

31.7%
23.8%
20.0%
30.4%
24.7%

268
148
813
64
82
1,686
902

347
274
646
56
127
1,589
1,001

339
345
485
55
156
1,096
721

292
382
479
59
168
879
514

264
467
546
66
188
871
481

8.8%
7.2%
49.2%

17.9%
11.3%
31.9%

13.0%
7.3%
14.2%

16.0%
7.9%
16.8%

16.8%
7.9%
18.6%

0.7%
8.9%
3.1%

0.7%
9.8%
1.2%

0.6%
6.5%
1.0%

0.6%
6.2%
0.8%

0.6%
6.0%
0.9%

12.7%

11.7%

8.1%

7.6%

7.4%

18.4%
22.6%
15.82
13.93
11.77

37.2%
59.3%
7.32
5.47
24.99

43.9%
78.2%
7.49
4.75
25.84

51.0%
104.1%
7.63
5.02
32.42

52.9%
112.3%
7.34
4.81
28.68

0.0%
0.0%
2010
0.29
3.37
55.9
4.8
-11.0
27.2
68.5
43.5%

0.09
14.0%
0.6%
2011
0.65
3.92
25.0
4.1
-45.8
13.4
21.2
14.1%

0.03
4.7%
0.2%
2012E
0.57
4.47
28.3
3.6
-30.4
6.7
20.7
21.4%

0.05
6.2%
0.3%
2013E
0.84
5.26
19.4
3.1
166.9
4.1
13.6
10.8%

0.09
8.3%
0.5%
2014E
1.04
6.21
15.7
2.6
-30.0
3.1
11.3
-0.8%

1.3
5.1

1.8
3.3

1.3
1.5

1.8
1.8

-19.6
1.9

1.7

0.8

2.2

1.6

1.2

(600703)

T_AuthorI nfo

3 2011

T_AuthorS tatemen t

T_Company State ment

T_Dis claimer

T_AuthorI nfo

22

6 300 15%
6 300 5% 15%
6 300 -5% 5%
6 300 5% 15%
6 300 15%

A 6 300
B 6 300

T_Sales

021-68766067

021-68765237

021-68763879

010-59113593

0755-82558073

liangtao@essence.com.cn

lingjie@essence.com.cn

zhangqin@essence.com.cn

mazn@essence.com.cn

huzhen@essence.com.cn

T_Reg ion

2008 1 7
: 518026

1589 16
: 200123

5 B 19
: 100034

23

021-68765293

021-68765913

010-59113563

010-59113590

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