Review_08/06/13 - ( Rating - 1/15 ) Extremely Negative - High Risk - Rupee has Broken Down / Nifty is also Breaking Down

n - Higher Low needs to be in Place for sideways trend) / AD is -ve / TRIN is -ve / Net 52 WK Hi/Low is +ve (--) Big Picture is Negative | 0 is extreme -ve | 1 is -ve | 2 is Netural | 3 is +ve | 4 is extreme +ve | Rupee - ( 0/3 ) Rupee Recovered from Low ( 38.2% Support ) has broken up on the upside & resistance 54.931, 55.821,56,57 has been Broken. Downside Levels are 55.821, 54.931, 54.192, 53.856 & 53.170 & 51.905 Also Alligator has opened its mouth Upwards & AO is starting to get +ve (-ve for Rupee) Rupee is weakned by strengthing Dollar ($ after falling from 84.34 to 83.20 has given Upward Breakout to Weak Rupee) Rupee is continuing weaking trend -ve for stock markets Nifty - ( 0/3 ) Move From 4500 (19-12-2011) to 5631 (22-02-2012) is Uptrend & there was retracement upto 4761 (61.8% Retracement) upto 05-06-2012 Market Restarted Uptrend from 4761 (05-06-2012) to 6110 (29-01-2013) There was correction from 6110 (29-012013) Upto 5477 (10-04-2013) After Entire Move from 5477 (10-04-2013) to 6229 (20-052013) There is now Ongoing correction (if Higher Low is formed at 5869 OR 5791) to restart Sideways or Uptrend Fresh Breakout above Previous High of 6102 6140 6110 has Failed as Price moved below 6000 & 5970 Levels.... & Now Above 200 MA (May be this is Retest on Upside ... Neckline of 5950 of Fresh H & S is Broken Measured Decline is upto 5700 (78.6 % Rectracement of 5477 to 6229 is Possible .... Need to be careful ) Dimensions Price Major Trend line break from Historic Pivot lows of 2532 - 4534 - 4775 was threatned & break that @ 5453 is SAVED (Upon Fall below 5480 target upto 5500 50% & Now major Fib target @ 61.8 - 5245 is Retracement of Move from 4800 to 6100.) Volume After Previous F&O expiry (@ 5961 ) After Relentless Upmove & Nifty is now free to build Short Position / Rally but Mid Month Reversal have failed (As per Nifty's 56 Day Cycle 13-05-2013 coincides with Mid month Reversal date has broken down only for 1 day & now broken on upside - Next Reversal day to check is 0807-2013 (+56Days)... This is a Vertical Rally has been Halted & there is Breakdown upto 5967 ....Bearish Vew Continues .. Bull Market Uptrend may start after Nifty Previous Life High is taken out (Sideways trend may start if higher low is created...)

Sentiments Sentiments are now -ve as people are waiting of signs of Weekness to Short at these High Levels & Not willing to participate in this Rally at High Levels as Risk Reward is not favourable . -ve Earnings are reported in Q4 with Many -ve Surprises (Started with Infy SBI Being Punished & Hindunilvr, Lichsgfin being Rewarded) Delicate Political condition Looms Large TIme Down Trend Might Continue Upto Mid Month Reversal Date of 14-06-2013 & Quadapuchi (Quaterly) Settlement is on 3rd Friday of 21-06-2013 Markets can Turn Choppy Open Intrest (OI) FUTURE-CMP(5895.2) is currently in BEAR trend. The Nifty Jun series is trading at Rs 14.2 premium to Underlying . In derivative cumulatively for all series contract Nifty future net shed 1.08 lakh position in OI and this accounts to -0.77 % of Total OI in all series and cumulatively trading in average premium of 34.4 Rs to Underlying. The OI is also not increasing with trend so be careful Options-At current price strike the activity is tilted to put side and writing of put is increasing.The Nifty Put option is trading at premium so market is expecting bearishnesNifty call option has added Rs 37.25 crore in value on cumulative basis P & F Chart H & S Breakout Has failed & 6000 Has been broken; Close below 5950 Opens target Upto 5500 5470 5300 & 4950 Breadth Charts - ( 0/3 ) (Rating 1 for Each +ve) Advance Decline Line (0/1) If the Nifty is rising but the number of stocks advancing is dropping, then the trend is in trouble and may pause soon or even reverse. Since AD Line is Lower Than -26000 is moving Down with Downtrend (AD Line is still not Breaking Out) Mid Cap participation is missing) as some Balance in AD needs to be achieved Some Midcaps are reverse (advancing) to balance the Line & recover from Over Sold Levels - But some Large caps are at life time Lows & all time favourites are starting to Decline

Trader's Index (TRIN Chart) (0/1) To Incorporate Volume of Advance Decline Analysis - TRIN is unusual in that it moves opposite to the Nifty TRIN is a ratio where 1.0 means selling and buying pressure are equal TRIN BELOW 1.0 (More Volume in stocks that are advancing) & Above 1.0 (More Volume in stocks that are Declining Nifty has near 1.1 after declining from 1.3 indicating Still more stocks (Midcaps & Largecaps ) are Declining & More Blue chips are being sold Rather Than Midcaps (Midcap Index is constant)& More Stocks Declining Confirms Down Trend

NSE Net Monthly High & Low (0/1) More Stocks in the index making new highs versus new lows if Number is Reducing Trend is in Trouble.The Rising New Highs indicate Markets Buying pressure is accelerating (Environment & Trend) is Positive There is Huge Decrease in Highs & Low Numbers into their 52 week High v/s towards Lows (Nearly Zero) ....weakness in upward Trend Strength & Strength in Down Trend

India Vix Volatility Index (or Fear Index or VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied volatility.Market Makers hedge the market Play, the Down Volume is always a factor & used in Direct Coorlation with the VIX & They Together have Indirect correlation with Index ie Vix & DVol is Down; Market will move Up AND Vix & DVol is Up;Market will move Down.Indirect relation between Vix & DVOL leads to Sidewise Index VIX is in Range of 13 to 19 Since Jun'12 - Fear/ Volitality is Decreasing with Down Trend indicating Traders expecting Down Trend ( Down Volume & Down Tick ).... But Vix has Furthur Room to Move Up / Down if Nifty Continous its Move Up it has Room to move down & Fear is not increasing with Down Trend.

A - Positive/Direct Corelation Between Bond Mkt (Long Term) = Forex (Individual Currency) Mkt = Stock Mkt B - Positive/Direct Corelation Between Commodity Mkt = Inflation (Status of Economy) = Bank Rate Negative/Indirect Corelation between A & B

Bonds - ( 1/3 ) Indirect Correlation with Stock Market; Money Flows from Bonds to Stock for Short term Maturity (Mkt Goes up) & Vice Versa. Shorter Period = Lower Rate (Controlled by Centeral Bank & Indirect relation to Stock Market) + Longer Period = Higher Rate (Controlled by Market) Both 10Y & 3Y Bond are at All time Lows but creating Double Bottom & Started increasing & 10 Year Rate is near 3 Year Rate & 3Year Rate in increasing Higher Relative to 10Year Rate (Caution) .. Correct Relation is 10Y ROI > 3Y ROI but 13Y ROI < 10Y ROI but that may be due to Low Volumes

Commodities Gold (Inverse Relations) Also Commodities Crude is moving Down,Gold has Recovered from Break Down Rangebound (Between 1380 to 1420) Support of 1320 has Hold ( Downwards move towards 1250 - As Per Mr Peter Brandt) towards its earlier Lows ( & Possible Shakeout for Recovery Rally to get smart money Out is Now rejected ... ( Equity Markets Rally has Dangers Due to Reduced Economic Growth (Commodity Demand) & Geo Political Tensions are increasing. Currency & World Markets (Positive Coorrelation) China is Recover is Slow & US Markets has given a Breakdown upto 1626 after Fresh Breakout from 1629 / 1655 & Europe CAG DAX & FTSE are Now Down (Break Down) from There Highs (Global Markets are showing Syncronisation in the Breakdowns Confirming Breakdown across Globe... Japan Yen Aussie $ are Depriciating & Market collapse caused Panik across Globe after Fed's Liquidity Reversal Hints (Market Build Gains on Bad Reports & Declines on Good Reports as it fuels Concern on Reduction in Liquidity (QE Reversal)..... Hence Global Liquidity is Moving towards World Equity Markets .. Ashwani Informed that Money is Moving from Emerging Market to Developed Markets & Both Needs to move in Tendom (Hence Fear of Developing Markets going to Top Out with US making a Double Top @ 1545.95 is out of way & All Equity Markets EXCEPT US are Declining - Risk OFF Mode) ....

The Mighty 10 Index - Top Sector & Index weighted % Wise ( 2/10 ) Negative INDEX HDFC At life Highs but Distribution being done at the Top of Range Since Last 7 Days FINANCE ICICIBANK Breakdown after testing of previous Highs ENERGY RELIANCE Did not Reach Previous highs Now falling to the bottom of the range IT INFY Up from Support but at 52 weeks Low FMCG ITC Break Down from Life time Highs AUTO TATAMOTORS Breakdown after testing of previous Highs PHARMACEUTICALS SUNPHARMA Breaking Down from Life highs CAPITAL GOODS L&T Break Down from Previous Highs METALS TATASTEEL Up from Support Consolidating at lows CEMENT ULTRACEMCO Breaking Down of Consolidation at Top still in Six Month Range NB: These notes are just personal musings on the markets, trends etc, as a sort of reminder to me on what I thought of them at a particular point in time. They are not predictions and none should rely on them for any investment decisions. Readers Discretion Expected. Advocate to Consult Your Financial Advisor before any Investment as Investment in any market may be Lost in its Entirety. Strictly for Entertainment Purpose Only.