Amplify Trading US Strategy: 5th August 2013

Fundamental Analysis
Market Review Friday's Payrolls report came in surprisingly weak. 162k jobs were created in the US in July which was lower than the expected 185k and a lot lower than our 'guess'. All of the labour market data that had preceded Friday's Payrolls was very strong and so market optimism head inflated with many looking for a print above 200k. The surprisingly bad news lead to sharp spikes with the Dollar weakening, T-Notes strengthening and equities coming under pressure. After the initial aggressive volatility equities spent the rest of the session retracing the initial spikes in a choppy manner. Nearing the US close the E-mini S&P 500 actually managed to print new all time highs. T-Notes and the US Dollar were not able to retrace the initial spikes and remained on their extremes although again the 1.33 handle in EURUSD halted the upside. Basically, the data was weak but not weak enough to significantly alter Tapering expectations and we continue to believe Bernanke will announce Tapering in the mid-September FOMC meeting.

Key Headlines
Market Sentiment: Neutral Bullish Cost cuts help boost HSBC earnings Lloyds chief eyes dividend boost

Wall St falls out of love with commodities: JPMorgans exit signals that the boom is over
Huawei plans London City base for global managing finances Sterling climbs on UK services boost European stocks firm after upbeat data China could ease one-child policy by year-end

Today's Fundamental View The S&P is flat this morning. We have seen decent Services PMIs from China and the Eurozone this morning. The UK continues to surprise on the upside with their Services PMI breaking above the 60 market for the first time since 2006. The S&P seems comfortable up around Friday's high ahead of the ISM Non-Manufacturing data due at 15.00 London time. EURUSD again tested the 1.33 handle this morning and is currently drifting lower. We feel that equities can remain positive but the dollar is likely to remain weak. Hence our neutral long strategies for the S&P and EURUSD. Crude oil has been under pressure over the last few hours and currently sits on the overnight low on the $106 handle. Are expectation is for crude to remain with a downside bias throughout the US session. T-Notes spiked higher on Friday but as we don't think the data changed the Fed's monetary policy outlook we look to sell into any strength.

Major Data Releases

DATA Expected 53.2 N/A View Lower N/A

Alternative Strategy Bearish ISM Non-Manufacturing will result in the S&P coming under pressure. Bullish data however will lead to US Dollar strength.

ISM Non-Manufacturing N/A

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E-Mini S&P 500 (Sep13) Futures: 5th August 2013

Strategy Entry 1st Target 2nd Target

Entry Neutral Long 1695.75 1700.00 1705.00

Stop
Key Levels 1707.50 1705.00 1701.50 1700.00 1698.25 1695.75

1694.00
Comments R1 ALL TIME HIGH Pivot Psychological Level S1 Fridays Low

th Entry 25Short

1694.00

Wednesdays High

Alternative Entry

Entry Neutral Short 1695.75

1st Target
2nd Target

1692.25
1688.00

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EURUSD (Sep13) Futures: 5th August 2013

Strategy Entry 1st Target 2nd Target

Entry Neutral Long 1.3229 1.3265 1.3300

Stop
Key Levels 1.3347 1.3322 1.3300 1.3265 1.3254 1.3229 1.3212

1.3212
Comments Wednesdays High R1 Psychological Overnight Low Pivot Friday Morning Res S1

Alternative Entry

Entry Neutral Short 1.3229

1st Target
2nd Target

1.3187
1.3168

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US 10yr T-Notes (Sep13) Futures: 5th August 2013

Strategy Entry 1st Target 2nd Target

Entry Short 126.205 126.115 126.040

Stop
Key Levels 126.260 126.205 126.115 126.040 125.060 125.195

126.260
Comments 29th July High Fridays High Thursday Morning Sup Pivot 15th July Low S1

125.050

Fridays Low
Entry Long 126.205

Alternative Entry

1st Target
2nd Target

126.260
127.000

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Nymex WTI Crude Oil (Sep13) Futures: 5th August 2013

Strategy Entry 1st Target 2nd Target

Entry Short 106.45 105.95 105.37

Stop
Key Levels 108.82 107.79 106.62 106.45 105.95 105.37 105.02 Alternative Entry

106.62
Comments Fridays High Overnight High Morning Resistance 38.2% Last Week Range S1 29th July High 61.8% Fib & S2 Entry Long 106.45

1st Target
2nd Target

107.00
107.38

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Disclaimer
Piers Curran Head of Trading Email: piers.curran@amplifytrading.com William de Lucy Managing Director Email: w.delucy@amplifytrading.com Jack Christiansen Strategist Email: jack.christiansen@amplifytrading.com
Amplify Trading is a Limited company registered in England and Wales. Registered number:6798566. Registered address: 50 Bank Street, 3rd Floor, Canary Wharf, London, E14 5NS. Information or opinions provided by Amplify Trading or the individuals listed to the left should not be used for investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments or any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities or other financial instruments. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. The price and value of investments referred to in this research and the income from them may fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Supporting documentation will be supplied upon request. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of Amplify Trading Ltd.

Strategy Performance: Monthly Gain on Margin

70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

How to trade with the reports

For entry and profit target orders, place the limits closer to the market by the number of prices given below. Also, place the stop orders further away from the market as directed in the table below. Once a trade has moved 61.8% of the way towards the first profit target, the stop order for the position will be trailed to the entry level, effectively making it a risk free trade. Please find a complete summary of the strategy statistics on our website: http://www.amplifytrading.com/strategy_reports

Market
S&P EURUSD TYA Crude Oil

Entry/Target Closer to Market

4 5 2 5

Stop Ticks From Level

5 8 3 10

2013 Amplify Trading

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