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80

20042008

84

89

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97

105

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149

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163

171

172

175

177

181

181

181

184

188

190

195

195

196

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(Technological Civilization)

(Post-Peak Oil Era)


(Campbell, 2001)

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(Hirsch,
2005)

(Roberts, P., 2005)

(Duncan &
Youngquist, 1998) 2030

(population crash)

1712

(T. Newcomen)

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(Atmospheric engine; Knight, 2008)

(Rolt & Allen, 1977)

5.5
(Fire engine)
(Crosby, A.W., 2002)
( 1.1)
1700
1815

(Dickinson, 1958) 1768


(James Watt)

(Thurston, 1972)

(Industrial Revolution)
( 1975)

(Energy Age)

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(William Blake)

1.1 1790

1.11790


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(Bronowski, J. 1967)

(Phoenician)
(Garrison, T., 2002) (Crosby, A. W.,
2008)

(Crosby, A. W., 2008)


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(Unknown
Age)

(Discovery Age) (Age


of the coal and steam)
1859 (Edward Drake) Titusville

1901
Spindletop

Spindletop

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(Accelerated Age)
(Age of oil and internal combustion engine)(
1975)

(Depletion Age)

1.2
(Hubbert, M. K., 1976)

1.2


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1.2 I

1.2 II 1.2

1.2 III
2010 2020

1500

1600
0

1700

1800
I

1900

2100 ()

2000
II

III

1.2 0 I II III


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(Energy depletion)

1.3 1965 2050 1965

2011 (BP)
2012 2050
Chefurka, P. (2011)
(Depletion rate)
2006 2025
(Energy Watch Group,
2011) 1.4 1965 2050

(World Energy Production Per Capita)


(World Total Energy Production)

12000
10000

8000
6000

4000

2000

0
1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

()

1.3 1965-2050


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e = E( ) / P(
) (United Nations Population Information Network)

(U.S. Census Bureau)


(Tonne of oil equivalent, T.O.E)

1.3 2020
1.4 2010
1.3 2006

1.4 1.3

2010

2010

(Alternative energy)
(Non-renewable energy source)

(Renewable energy source)


(Biomass)

10

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1.5

0.5

0
1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060 ()

1.4 1965-2050

2011
(British Petroleum, 2013)
(Millions tonne of oil equivalent, M.T.O.E)
3,724.3 M.T.O.E 2,905.6 M.T.O.E 4,059.1
M.T.O.E 599.3 M.T.O.E 791.5 M.T.O.E

194.8 M.T.O.E 12,274.6 M.T.O.E


30.3% 23.7% 33.1% 4.9%
6.4% 1.6% ( 1.5)
87.1%
8.0%

2011

55 2

11
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1.6%

6.4%

4.9%

33.1%

30.3%

23.7%

1.52011 ( )

1.6

12

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AS AS

AD1 AD2
AD2 AD3
AD3

AD3

(Stagflation)
2008

13
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(AS)

P3

(AD3)

P2

(AD2)

P1

(AD1)
Q1 Q2 Q3
1.6

(Energy war)

2/3

90

14

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(Georgia) 2008 8 7

2009 7

16 61

15
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3.8

70 2050 90
(United Nations Population Information Network)

Meadows, D. H.,
Meadows, D. L. & Randers, J. 1992 Beyond the Limits

1.7

(Population crash)

1.7
16

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2008 4 5

53

20

(Greenhouse
gas) (Climate extremes)

(Global warming)

17
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(Climate change)

(Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, IPCC) 130 2,000

(IPCC,
2013)

(Gore, A., 2007)


IPCC
2007 + - 2

18

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19
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( Po p u l at i o n c ra s h ) 2 ,
15-16, 20, 25, 131-137, 184, 195

(Population crisis) 25,


125-126, 143

(Population Doubling
time, D)127

(Population explosion)15,
131

(Population expansion)91,
126, 128, 134, 138

(Seven seals)23
(Seven trumpets)23-24
(Seven bowls)23-24
(21st Century
Disaster)143, 148

(Three Mile Island)43


(Hydrologic cycle)158

(Fire energy)3
(Clash of civilizations)100,
123

(Solar energy) 9-10, 48,


66-68, 104, 174, 191

(Hydropower)191
(Biomass)10, 67, 174, 191,
192

(Phenology)169

(Accelerated Age)7-8, 18, 29,


35, 39, 41-42

(Atmospheric engine)3
(Industrial Revolution)3, 5,
6, 26, 29, 31, 33-35, 39, 45, 152

(Age of oil and


internal combustion engine)7

(Tonne of oil equivalent)


9-11, 64, 66, 191

(OPEC)62-63,

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80-81, 83, 112

(Petroleum Century)7, 41,


46, 123

(Oil production peak)


2, 52, 54, 56, 59, 63, 78, 182,
184-186

(Workshop of the world)


31

ination)74-75

(Rate of growth)51, 128,


132

(Geothermal Power)10, 48, 67,


174, 191

(Renewable energy source)


10-12, 24, 45, 47-52, 54, 63-65,
68, 114, 174, 188, 191

( Wo r l d o i l
transit chokepoints)118

(Chernobyl)44, 68

(World Total Energy


Production)9-10, 65-66

( Wo r l d
Energy Production Per Capita)
9-11, 65-67, 102

(Global warming) 17-18,


24, 150, 152, 154-157, 164, 170,
178

(GPS)177

(Non-renewable energy
source) 10, 24, 45, 47-52, 54,
63-64, 114, 174, 188

(BRICS)44
(Financial tsunami)13, 83,
87-88, 91, 93, 102, 113

(Kyoto Protocol) 150,


173, 174

(Millions tonne of oil


equivalent)9, 11, 64, 66, 191

(Oil shale)47, 52, 67


(Cost-push

(Technological Civilization)
1, 2, 5-7, 17, 19, 29, 35, 39,

197
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41-42, 45-47, 130, 152-153, 160,


181-182, 184, 187-190, 194-195

(Armageddon)20-23

(Energy crisis) 44, 53,


55, 61-64, 74, 77, 80-83, 86-87,
111-112, 191-192

(Intergov-

(Depletion Age)7-8, 10, 18,

e r n m e nta l Pa n e l o n C l i m ate

29, 42, 45, 50, 67-69, 78, 143,

Change, IPCC)18, 148, 150, 180

181-182

(Exponential growth)
128, 133, 137, 182

(Depletion rate)9, 65
(Climate change)2,

(Post-Peak Oil Era)1, 12,

17-18, 20, 23-25, 64, 137-139,

46, 125, 131, 182-184, 190-191,

143, 148-152, 161, 163, 165-172,

193-195

174-175, 180, 195

(Gaussian distribution)49

(Energy Revolution)33
(Energy Age)3, 29
(Energy Watch Group)
9, 27, 65, 69

(Energy war)2, 14, 20, 22,


183, 195

(Energy depletion) 1, 7,

(Inflation)13-14, 17, 53,


63, 71-80, 84-91, 93, 140, 187

(Inflation rate) 72-73,


75-76

(Fiscal policy)75-77, 90
(Monetary policy)75-77,
85-88, 90, 92

(Dierential change)169

9-10, 12, 14-16, 19, 26, 45-47, 50,

(Nuclear ssion)42, 68

56, 61, 63, 65, 69, 71, 75-77, 87,

(Nuclear fusion) 42, 68-69,

90-91, 97-99, 101, 125, 134-137,


139-140, 143, 153, 181-182,
187-191, 195

184

(Consumer Price
Index, CPI)72

198

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( O zo n o s p h e r e O 3 ) 1 5 0 ,
153-154

(Copenhagen Accord)
150, 173-174

(Second Stage
Industrial Revolution)

(World War I)22,


39, 106-107

(World War II)40,

(Stagflation) 13,

42, 106-108, 110-111, 113, 123

(Misery index)72, 75

75-80, 84-91, 93, 95, 187

(Greenhouse gas)11, 17,

(The Wealth of Nations)33

149-150, 153, 156, 171, 174

(International security)
1, 97-98, 105, 110, 114, 119, 122

(normal distribution)
49

(Peak production)2, 9-10,

(Greenhouse effect)149,
156-157

(Olduvai theory)46,
186

(Early warning system)175

22, 49-57, 59-65, 67-69, 78, 94,


111, 114, 182, 184-186

(Phillips curve)73
(International conflict)98,
100, 116, 121, 143

(Montreal protocol)150
(Collapse threshold)185

(Discovery Age)6, 8, 29, 35,


39

(Age of coal and


steam)

(Kerosene lantern)36
(Alternative energy)10-11,

67-69, 83, 88, 91, 103, 173, 188,

(First Stage Industrial

190-192

Revolution)

(Ideological war)99

199
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(Capitalism)33
(Resource war) 22, 102,

(Contraction threshold)
185

104, 122

(Climate extremes) 17,

148, 155, 157-159, 163, 165, 168,

(Reservoir)51

171

(Unknown Age)6-8, 29

(Triggering event)159

(Food crisis)17, 137-139

(Demand- pull

(Tar sand)67

ination)73-74

(Organization of Rice
Exporting Countries, OREC)140

(Fuel cells)68

(Facebook)40
(Aggregate supply curve)
13-14, 73-74, 78

(Aggregate demand curve)


73

(Environmental refugees)
137, 161
200

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.
., 2013.07
.
ISBN 978-957-11-7162-3 ()
1.2.3.4.

400.15

102011136

5A92









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