ATTIYA REHMAN

Is current climate change unprecedented in geological history?

The changes in temperature over time have been recorded throughout history. It is these changes which have a significant effect on the earths climate causing many environmental, social and economic effects. Temperatures are rising, snow and rainfall patterns are shifting, and more extreme climate eventslike heavy rainstorms and record high temperaturesare already affecting the earth. Recently, measurements show global temperatures have been rising. Over the last 100 years the average global surface temperature has risen by 0.74oC however this had already had an effect on the Earth. Arctic sea ice has been decreasing, glaciers shrinking and trees are flowering sooner. These are just a few of the environmental effects the rising temperature has caused. Theory predicts that as ice is lost in the arctic,, more of the oceans surface will be exposed to solar radiation and will warm up as opposed to the Albedo effect where 90% of the suns rays are reflected back. Scientists have predicted that global temperatures will continue to rise for decades to come, largely due to greenhouse gasses produced by human activities. In turn this would lead to loss of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise and longer, more intense heat waves. Also in Europe there would be an increased risk of inland flash floods; more frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion from storms and sea level rise; glacial retreat in mountainous areas; reduced snow cover and winter tourism; extensive species losses and also reductions of crop productivity in southern Europe. This is concerning as this can have an effect on many lives, putting more people at risk and also may have an effect on the economy as there is loss of crop. In the past global temperatures have changed frequently. Around 375million years ago many new plants evolved carboniferous period. The plants took in carbon dioxide for photosynthesis removing it from the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas so traps heat therefore the decrease in carbon dioxide led to the cooling of the plant. Global temperatures fell about 10oC over 100million years ago. This long cooling trend was then followed by a much faster temperature rise about 251million years ago. Scientists think this was caused by one of the largest known volcanic eruptions in the Earths history the formation of the Siberian Traps which lasted about a million years and covered an area nearly twice the size of Europe in lava. This volcanic eruption released large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This then led to an increase in global temperatures by around 6oC over a couple of million years. There has been further climate change in the following years due to a variety of many reasons. The graph below shows the annual mean temperature between 1837 and 2011. This graphs shows temperature has been fluctuating for many years, rising and falling however over time there has been a gradual increase as shown by the linear trend.

ATTIYA REHMAN

There have been many natural causes of climate change for example variations in the Earths orbit. Every 100 000 years the Earths orbit changes from spherical to elliptical, changing solar input. Also the tilt of the Earth changes - the Earths axis is tilted at 23.5o, this changes over a 41 000 year cycle between 22o & 24.5o, affecting solar input, especially in higher latitudes. The Earths axis also wobbles, so which way the hemispheres are facing to the sun when closest to the sun varies over 21000 years. Variations in solar input are also natural causes to the changing climate. The suns output varies and a variety of cycles have been detected. Many of these cycles are short term for examples sun spot activity 11years. The effect of sunspots is to blast more solar radiation towards the earth. Some scientists have suggested that around 20% of 20th Century warming may be because of solar output variation. Lastly, as mentioned before, volcanoes are a natural cause to climate change. Large eruptions eject material into the stratosphere. The sulphur dioxide forms a haze of sulphate aerosols, which reduces the amount of sunlight received at the Earths surface. For example the eruption of Tambora , led to the year without a summer in 1816 as global temperatures dipped by 0.4-0.7 degrees Celsius. Scientists measure all these natural changes and calculate their effects however none can account for the warming observed since 1970, when global temperature has risen by about half a degree. So scientists can only account for the observed trend by including the effect of human activities. There

ATTIYA REHMAN are some anthropogenic (human) factors which cause climate change. Firstly the increased amount of carbon dioxide due the industrial revolution has led to rising temperatures. The burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil releases carbon dioxide in to the atmosphere. As carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, it can lead to the enhanced greenhouse effect where more heat is reflected back to the earth leading to higher global temperatures.

This graph shows the relationship between carbon dioxide levels and temperature. As the concentration of carbon dioxide rises, global temperatures also rise.

There has also been a rise in methane and nitrous oxide which are also greenhouse gases leading to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

Overall I think climate is changing due to both anthropogenic and natural factors however in recent years I think anthropogenic factors have contributed more to climate change than natural factors. I think current climate change is not unprecedented in history as there has been a rise of up to 6 degrees Celsius in the past. Even though this was due to natural factors, the temperature rise in recent years is similar however is mostly due to anthropogenic causes.