CHAPTER 11: DECISION MAKING ANG REASONING Fallacy: erroneous reasoning, intuitive feeling is an example of a fallacy in judgement and

reasoning. Judgement and decision making: used to select from among choices or to evaluate opportunities. JUDGEMENT AND DECISION MAKING Classical Decision Theory: reflects the strengths of an economic perspective. One such strength is the ease of developing and using mathematical models of human behaviour Model of Economic Man and Woman o Assumes 3 things: Decision makers are fully informed regarding all possible options for their decisions and of all possible outcomes of their decision They are infinitely sensitive to the subtle distinctions among decision options They are fully rational in regard to their choice of options o Assumption of infinite sensitivity: people can evaluate the difference between two outcomes, no matter how subtle the distinctions among options may be. o Assumption of rationality: people make their choices to maximize something of value, whatever that something may be. Subjective Expected Utility Theory o The goal of human action is to seek pleasure and avoid pain. o In making decisions, people will seek to maximize pleasure (positive utility) and minimize pain (negative utility) o Uses calculations of 2 things: Subjective utility: a calculation based on the individuals judged weightings of utility (value) rather than an objective criteria. Subjective probability: a calculation based on the individuals estimates of likelihood, rather than on objective statistical computations.

Heuristics and Biases: Heuristics: mental shortcuts that lighten the cognitive load of making decision Satisficing: we consider options one by one, and then we select an option as soon as we find one that is satisfactory or just enough to meet our minimum level of acceptability. o We show bounded rationality: we are rational, but within limits Elimination by Aspects: we eliminate alternatives bu focusing aspects of each alternative, one at a time. One of the key ways in which we use mental shortcuts venters on our estimations of probability. o A kind of probability is conditional probability: the likelihood of one event, given another. Representativeness Heuristic: In representativeness: we judge the probability of an uncertain event according to: how obvious it is similar to or representative of the population from which it is derived and the degree to which it reflects the salient features of the process by which it is generated. o We also tend to use the representativeness heuristic more frequently when we are highly aware of anecdotal evidence based on a very small sample of the population. o Base rates: refers to the prevalence of an event or characteristic within its population of events or characteristics. Availability Heuristic: we make judgements on the basis of how easily we can call to mind what we perceive as relevant instances of a phenomenon. Anchoring: Anchoring and adjustment heuristic: people adjust their evaluations of things by means of certain reference points called ( end- anchors) Framing: the way that the options are presented influences the selection of an option.

Biases:

Illusory Correlation: we are predisposed to see particular events or attributes and categories as going together, even when they do not. Overconfidence: an individual;s overevaluation of his or her own skills, knowledge or judgement Hindsight Bias: when we look at a situation retrospectively, we believe we easily can see all the signs and events leading up to a particular outcome. Hindsight bias hinders learning because it impairs ones ability to compare one;s expectations with the outcome.

Fallacies: Gamblers Fallacy: a mistaken belief that the probability of a given random event is influenced by previous random events. Hot hand effect: refers to the belief that a certain course of events will continue. Conjuction Fallacy: an individual gives a higher estimate for a subset of events than for the larger set of events containing the given subset. Sunk-Cost Fallacy: this fallacy represents the decision to continue to invest in something simply because one has invested in it before and one hopes to recover ines investment.

Do Heuristics Help Us or Lead Us Astray? Fast and frugal heuristics: this class of heuristics is based on a small fraction of information and decisions using the heuristics are made rapidly Opportunity Costs: the prices paid for availing oneself of certain opportunities. Naturalistic Decision Making Group Decision Making: Groupthink o Benefits of Group Decisions: (see book) o Groupthink: a phenomemon characterized by premature decision making that is generally the result og group members attempting to avoid conflict. 3 kinds of conditions that lead to groupthink: an isolated, cohesive and homogeneous group is empowered to make decisions Objective and impartial leadership is absent, within the group or outside it High levels of stress impinge on the group decision making process 6 symptoms of groupthink: Closed midedness Rationalization Squelching of dissent Formation of a mindguard for the group Feeling invulnerable Feeling unanimous Antidotes for Groupthink Neuroscience of Decision Making: prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulated cortex

DEDUCTIVE REASONING Reasoning: the process of drawing conclusions from principles and from evidence Deductive Reasoning: the process of reasoning from one or more general statements regarding what is known to reach a logically certain conclusion. It often involves reasoning from one or more general statements regarding what is known to a specific application of the general statement. Deductive reasoning is based on logical propositions. A Proposition: basically an assertion which may be true or false. Premises: propositions about which arguments are made

Conditional Reasoning: the reasoned must draw a conclusion based on an if-then proposition.

Deductive validity: logical soundness of reasoning. Modus ponens argument: the reasoned affirms the antecedent. If p then q.p. therefore q. Modus tollens argument: the reasoned denies the consequent if q then p therefore is x is not p then x is not q.

The Wason Selection Task: see book Conditional Reasoning in Everyday life. Influences on Conditional Reasoning: Pragmatic Reasoning Schemas: general organizing principles or rules related to particular kinds of goals. Evolution and Reasoning Syllogistic Reasoning: Categorical Syllogisms. Syllogisms: deductive arguments that involve drawing conclusions from 2 premises. All syllogisms comprise a major premise, a minor premise and a conclusion. What are categorical syllogisms, the premises state something about the category memberships of the terms. Each term represents all, none or some of the members of a particular class or category.

*see book for more info. Aids and Obstacles to Deductive Reasoning Heuristics in Deductive Reasoning Overextension errors: we overextend the use of strategies that work in some syllogisms to syllogisms in which the strategies fail us. Foreclosure effects: we fail to consider all the possibilities before reaching a conclusion Premise-phrasing effect may influence our deductive reasoning; the sequence of terms or the use of particular qualifiers or negative phrasing. Premise phrasing effects may lead us to leap to a conclusion without adequately reflecting on the deductive validity of the syllogism

Biases in Deductive Reasoning The biases generally relate to the content of the premises and the believability of the conclusion. They also reflect the tendency toward confirmation bias: we seek confirmation rather than disconfirmation of what we already believe

Enhancing Deductive Reasoning: avoid heuristics and biases that distort our reasoning; engage in practices that facilitate reasoning, consider more alternative conclusions; train and practice One factor that affect syllogistic reasoning is mood. When people are in a sad mood, they tend to pay more attention to details

INDUCTIVE REASONING Inductive reasoning is the process of reasoning from specific facts or observations to reach a likely conclusion that may explain the facts. The inductive reasoned may then use that probable conclusion to attempt to predict future specific instances. In inductive reasoning we can never reach a logically certain conclusion Inductive reasoning highlights familiarity Why we use it: it helps to become increasingly able to make sense of the great variability in the environment. And it also helps to predict events in the environment, thereby reducing uncertainty.

Causal Inferences: how people make judgemnts about whether something causes something else

David Hume: we are more likely to infer causality when we observe covariation overtime. o This may also lead to illusory confirmation from confirmation bias effects . o Correlation evidence cannot indicate the direction of causation o Another error is when we fail to recognize that many phenomena have multiple causes. o Discounting Error: once we have identifies one of the suspected causes of the phenomenon, we may commit to it and stop searching for additional alternatice or contributing causes. *self fulfilling prophecy Categorical Inferences: we generally use both top down and bottom up processes. Then we abstract a prototype then focused sampling Reasoning by Analogy: inductive reasoning may be applied to reasoning by analogy. o Some investigators use reaction time methodology to figure out how peoplesolve induction problems. o Most of the time spent in solving simple verbal analogies is spent in encoding the terms and in responding, only a small part actually is spent in doing reasoning operations on these

AN ALTERNATIVE VIEW OF REASONING Dual process theory: 2 complementaty systems of reasoning can be distinguished. First is the associative system: involves mental operations based on observed similarities and temporal contiguities. Can lead to speedy responses that are highly sensitive to patterns and to general tendencies; we detect similarities between observed patterns and patterns stored in memory. It favors remembered pattern that are better matches to the observed pattern. o Belief bias effect: occurs when we agree more with syllogisms that affirm our beliefs, whether or not these syllogisms are logically valid. o An example of the workings of the associative system may be in the false consensus effect: people believe that their own behaviour and judgements are more common and more appropriate than those of other people Second is ta rule based system: involves manipulations based on the relations among symbols

Neuroscience of Reasoning

CHAPTER 12: PROBLEM SOLVING AND CREATIVITY Problem solving: an effort to overcome obstacles obstructing the path to a solution. The Problem Solving Cycle: Includes: o problem identification: do we have a problem? o problem definition and representation: what is it? o strategy formation: how can we solve it? May involve analysis: breaking down the whole of a complex problem into manageable elements Also synthesis: putting together carious elements to arrange them ito something useful Divergent thinking: you try to generate a diverse assortment of possible alternative solutions to a problem. Convergent thinking: to narrow down the multiple possibilities to converge on a single best answer o organization of information: how do the various pieces of information in the problem fit together? o allocation of resources: how much time, effort, money etc should I put into this problem? o Monitoring: am I on track as I proceed to solve the problem? o Evaluation: did I solve the problem correctly?

Types of Problems: Well-structured problems: have clear paths to solutions. Are also defined as well defined problems Ill structured problems: lack clear paths to solutions. Also termed as ill defined problems.

Well structured problems: People seem to make 3 main kinds of errors when trying to solve well structured problems: o Inadvertently moving backward: they revert to a state that is further from the end goal o Making illegal moves: a move that is not permitted according to the terms of the problem. o Not realizing the nature of the next legal more: becoming stuck: they do not know what to do next, given the current stage of the problem Problem space: the universe of all possible actions that can be applied to solving a problem, given any constraints that apply to the solution of the problem Algorithms: sequences of operations that may be repeated over and over again and that, in theory, guarantee the solution to a problem. An algorithm continues until it satisfies a condition determined by a program. Heuristics: mental shortcuts, informal, intuitive, speculative strategies that sometimes lead to an effective solution and sometimes do not. See table in p471

Isomorphic problems: when 2 problems have the same formal structure and only their content different. *we find it hard to identify them; Problem Representation Does Matter! Ill structured Problems and the role of insight: problems that have no clear, readily available paths to solutions; do no have well defined problem spaces. Insight: a distinctive and sometimes seemingly sudden understanding of a problem or of a strategy that aids in solving the problem. Insight involves reconceptualising a problem or a strategy in a totally new way; it often involves detecting and combining relevant old and new information to gain a novel view of the problem or of its solution insights are often the result of much prior thought and hard work.

Early Gestaltic Views: Productive thinking: involves insights that go beyond the bound of existing associations o Reproductive thinking: based on existing associations involving what is already known.

The Neo-Gestaltist View Insights into Insight: sleep helps Neuroscience and Insight

Obstacles and Aids to Problem Solving Mental sets, Entrenchment and Fixation Mental Set: a frame of mind involving an existing model for representing a problem, a problem context of a procedure for problem solving. o Entrenchment: when problem solvers have an entrenched mental set, they fixate on a strategy that normally work well in solving many problems but that does not work well in solving this particular problem. o Functional Fixedness: the inability to realize that something known to have a particular use may also be used for performing other functions o Stereotypes: beliefs that members of a social group tend more or less uniformly to have particular types of characteristics. o Negative and Positive Transfer

Transfer: ant carryover of knowledge or skills from one problem situation to another. Negative transfer: occurs when solving an earlier problem makes it harder to solve a late one. Positive transfer: occurs when the solution of an earlier problem makes it easier to solve a new problem. Transfer of Analogies see p 485 Intentional Transfer: Searching for Analogies: what matters in analogies is not the similarity of the content but how closely their structural systems of relationships match. Transparency: people see analogies where they do not exist because of similarity of content. In making analogies, we need to be sure we are focusing on the relationships bet 2 terms being compared, not just their surface content attributes. Incubation: putting the problem aside for a while without consciously thinking about it: offers one what in which to minimize negative transfer.

Neuroscience and Planning during Problem Solving Intelligence and Complex Problem Solving