Gold?

by David Stanowski
07 June 2009

Abstract:
In the late 1970's, I fell in with the original Gold Bugs and I began buying
Gold and Silver, however, eventually, I discovered technical analysis, and
sold near the top, before the 19-year decline began.

With the current unprecedented financial crisis, the Gold Bugs are once
again making a very compelling case that those who do not buy Gold will
see their money become worthless, and be faced with financial ruin.
However, what is the possibility that they may be totally wrong, and
investing in Gold will lead to major losses?

This is one of the most critical questions of our time!

Introduction:
From 1793 to 1861, the price of Gold stayed in a very narrow price range
between $20 and $21 per ounce until the inflation caused by monetary
policy during the Civil War pushed the price up 135% to $47. After the War,
the price trended lower for many years until it was back down to $21 when
the Great Depression arrived. In one of the most draconian moves of the
New Deal, FDR signed Executive Order 6102 which made it illegal for
Americans to own Gold, except for jewelry and small quantities of certain
coins minted before 1933.

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The Order required people to surrender their Gold to the Federal Reserve
on or before 01 May 1933. Violation of EO 6102 was punishable by a fine up
to $10,000 ($164,000 in today's Dollars), up to ten years in prison, or both.

How Americans Lost Their Right to Own Gold

Citizens were paid $20.67 per ounce for their Gold, when it was
confiscated, but shortly after this forced sale, the price of Gold for
international transactions was raised to $35 per ounce; instantly devaluing
the Dollar by 69%!

The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 officially changed the value of the dollar in
Gold from $20.67 to $35 per ounce. From 1934 to 1968, the price of Gold
remained virtually unchanged at $35.

On 17 March 1968, the effort to control the private market price of Gold
collapsed, so a two-tiered price system was established that kept all
central-bank transactions at $35, but the free market was allowed to
establish its own price. The market price immediately jumped to $43!

The free market price remained in the $40 range until 15 August 1971
when Nixon announced that the United States would no longer convert
Dollars to Gold at a fixed value, thus abandoning the Gold standard for
foreign exchange, and opening the door for major price increases.

The limitation on the ownership of Gold in the U.S. was finally repealed
when President Gerald Ford signed a bill legalizing private ownership of
Gold coins, bars and certificates which went into effect on 31
December 1974.

Gold Prices
Year End:
1793-1813 $19.39
1814 $21.79
1815 $22.16
1816 $19.84
1817-1833 $19.39
1834-1836 $20.69
1837 $21.60
1838-1840 $20.73
1841 $20.67
1842 $20.69

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1843-1856 $20.67
1857 $20.71
1858-1861 $20.67
1862 $27.35
1863 $31.23
1864 $47.02
1865 $30.22
1866 $28.26
1867 $27.86
1868 $27.95
1869 $25.11
1870 $22.88
1871 $22.59
1872 $23.19
1873 $22.74
1874 $23.09
1875 $23.54
1876 $22.30
1877 $21.25
1878 $20.69
1879-1932 $20.67
1933 $32.32
1934-1939 $35.00
1940 $34.50
1941-1942 $35.50
1943 $36.50
1944 $36.25
1945 $37.25
1946 $38.25
1947 $43.00
1948 $42.00
1949 $40.50
1950 $40.25
1951 $40.00

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 1952 $38.70
1953 $35.50
1954 $35.25
1955 $35.15
1956 $35.20
1957-1958 $35.25
1959 $45.25
1960 $36.50
1961 $35.50
1962 $35.35
1963 $35.25
1964 $35.35
1965 $35.50
1966 $35.40
1967 $35.50
1968 $43.50
1969 $41.00
1970 $38.90
1971 $44.60
1972 $63.84
1973 $106.48
1974 $183.77
1975 $139.29
1976 $133.77
1977 $161.10
1978 $208.10
1979 $459.00
1980 $594.00
Source: Austin Gold Information Network

Fundamental Versus Technical Analysis:

Fundamental analysis of investments, like commodities and real estate,
focuses on supply and demand factors and other economic forces that
might have an effect on them such as money supply, interest rates, and
political changes. Fundamental analysis of operating companies looks at

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things such as the management, cash flow, earnings, profit, sales outlook,
expansion plans, new products, etcetera.

Technical analysis focuses first and foremost on the price graph of the
investment. Technicians believe that the actions of everyone who trades on
fundamentals are already reflected in the price, so there is no need to be
concerned with fundamentals, because, in the end, price is everything!

Technicians also look at many mathematical manipulations of the price

curve like oscillators, moving averages, and volatility and range studies;
sentiment indicators such as investor/trader surveys, Put/Call ratios, and
Commitment of Traders reports, as well as volume studies.

Many investors use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis,

in a variety of markets, but Gold Bugs are fundamentalists plain and
simple, even though they may use technicals for short-term timing. The
entire reason that they "believe in" Gold as a long-term investment is due
to fundamentals.

The Fundamentalist Case for Gold is very simple, logical, and makes a lot
of sense:
The Federal Reserve was established in 1913, and its real purpose was
and is to debase the value of the Dollar in a relatively slow and controlled
manner for the benefit of a small group of elite bankers, financial firms,
wealthy families, and politicians. Eventually, the real estate market became
dependent on debt, so the devaluation of the Dollar became its lifeblood,
too.

The FED facilitates the devaluation of the Dollar by creating an excess

supply of Dollars. The more Dollars that exist, the less each one is worth; a
phenomena known as inflation. Dollars are created by actually printing
more currency, but the primary method is through the creation of more and
more credit.

If it's understood that the real purpose of the FED is to devalue the Dollar,
and therefore create inflation, then it is easy to make the case that the
constantly declining value of the Dollar MUST lead to a constantly rising
value of Gold, when it is priced in Dollars, over any reasonably long period
of time! This is the appeal of the Gold Bug's argument; you can't lose,
because one action will create a known result, so the outcome is totally
predictable! How many other investments offer this advantage?

Testing the Gold Bugs' Case:

Ideally, the best measure of the true value of the Dollar would be the
Consumer Price Index (CPI), however, since it is the most widely known
and visible measure of inflation, the government has gone to great pains to

5
modify it, over the last 25 years, so that it understates inflation. Therefore,
the lesser known and less manipulated Producers' Price Index (PPI) of All
Commodities will be used as the best available metric.

The following chart clearly shows that the U.S. Dollar was worth $1.00 in
1913, but at the end of 2008 it was only worth $0.06; a decline of 94%. This
confirms the fact that the basic premise of the Gold Bugs' case is indeed
correct!

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

If the devaluation of the Dollar, i.e. inflation, causes the price of Gold to
rise, is the PPI measure of inflation strongly correlated to the price of
Gold?

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 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: MeasuringWorth.com
New York Market Price

Bearing in mind that the price of Gold was fixed until 1968, the upward
sloping PPI inflation curve can be seen to correspond to a generally

7
upward price trend in Gold, but the correlation between the two isn't very
tight.

The next graph shows Gold divided by the PPI. This calculation removes
the effect of inflation on the price of Gold, and reveals the fact that a great
deal of the price movement has nothing to do with inflation! Also note that
the new high in Gold shown in the graph above is not confirmed by the
graph below. This means Gold only made a new high in 2008 due to the
weakness of the Dollar.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: MeasuringWorth.com
New York Market Price

When the fixed-price era ended and the pent up demand was unleashed in
1968, a massive Bull Market was launched that saw prices move from $35
to an $850 intra day high in 1980. The value of an investment in Gold
increased by a factor of 24-to-1!

Obviously, this move was overdone, so it lead to a 70% collapse in the

price of Gold, on an intra day high-to-low basis, over a 19-year period
(1980-1999)! This long Bear Market set up another strong up move from
1999 to 2008.

The problem with the simplistic case made by the Gold Bugs is that it fails
to account for the major moves in the price of Gold that are independent of
inflation! An investor who bought Gold in 1913 at $20.67, and held it until

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the end of 2008, when it was selling at $884.30, saw his investment
increase more than 42 times!!

However, an investor who bought the DJIA at the end of 1913, at $57.71,
and held it until year end 2008, when it was $8,776.39, increased their
wealth by a factor of 152! Buying and holding the DJIA for 95 years created
3.6 times more profit than buying and holding Gold!

So, why would anyone buy Gold? Because many still believe the fantasy
that the stock market is riskier than the Gold market. They believe that
investing in the stock market takes a lot of knowledge and expertise, but
since Gold "always goes up due to inflation"; it is easy to make large
profits in this market. Hopefully, this article has demonstrated that this is
simply not true!

Of course, most people don't live 95 years let alone invest for that period of
time. Typically, if a liquid investment isn't paying off in 2-3 years, many
investors will give up and sell.

How many investors who bought Gold at the top tick of $850.00 in January
1980, would hold it for 19 years as it collapsed 70% to $252.80 in 1999, and
then hold it for 9 more years until 2008 when it finally surpassed $850.00
with a new high of $1,011.25? It just doesn't work that way in real life!

The bottom line is that all investments in this country are priced in Dollars,
so some of their price gains are always going to be due to the loss of value
of the Dollar and not the gain in value of the investment; but the Gold/PPI
graph demonstrated that this is just as true for Gold as it is for any other
investment.

The fallacy of the Gold Bugs' argument is that they believe that investing in
Gold is easier than other markets, because the same sophisticated analysis
isn't necessary in a market that just relies on inflation for its gains. A brief
examination of the price of Gold over the past 40 years should make it
obvious that this simply isn't true! If it isn't approached like every other
investment, using the proper analysis, and technical timing tools, an
investor can lose a lot of money!

Close up:
Just how far off base this simplistic reliance on inflation as the strategy for
buying gold really is can be demonstrated by looking more closely at the
Gold market between its 1980 high and 1999 low. The following graph
shows how as one measure of the money supply (M1) increased by a factor
of 3-to-1, between 1980 and 1999, the price of Gold DECREASED by a factor
of 3-to-1!!

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How can that be? In 1980, Gold peaked at $850.00. Since one measure of
the number of Dollars tripled, over the next 19 years, Gold Bugs would
expect Gold to be trading near $850.00 x 3 = $2,550.00 in 1999. Instead,
Gold hit a low of $252.80, in 1999; 1/10 of the expected price if Gold just
tracked the amount of money creation!

The next graph is even more incredible! It shows a plot of the Total Credit
Market Debt, which is a broader measure of money creation, doubling
between 1980 and 1999 while Gold plunged 70%! The explanation for why
Gold did not behave as the Gold Bugs said it should can be found by
focusing on the period between 1967 and 2009.

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1967-2009:
Between 1967 and 2009, there was a nearly perfect inverse correlation
between investors' interest in Gold and their interest in the stock market. A
great deal of the rise in the stock market averages is also due to inflation,
so as investors receive newly created money from the Fed, at any given
time, they must choose which market will be the beneficiary of their new
funds. Sometimes Gold is the primary recipient, but other times it is the
stock market, real estate, or bonds.

Rotation:
It may seem odd, in a monetary system with almost constant inflation, that
the price trend of Gold isn't nearly as smooth and predictable as that of the
PPI, but it isn't odd at all when it's understood that investors move or rotate
from one investment to another as their attitudes or moods towards them
change over time; which often has little to do with inflation. Bull Markets
start during periods of under valuation and disinterest by investors, and
end in over valuation and great excitement. As the Bear Market
begins, they gradually begin to shift their attention to a different market
which starts a new Bull Market in another investment vehicle.

Stocks versus Gold:

The next two graphs of the DJIA and Gold clearly show the three major
turning points when investors shifted money from stocks to Gold, and Gold
to stocks:

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1. 1966-1967: Stocks end their Bull Market and the newly created money
begins flowing into Gold, which launches the 1967-1980 Bull Market in
Gold.

2. 1980-1982: Gold ends its Bull Market and the newly created money
begins flowing into stocks, which launches the 1982-1999 Bull Market in
stocks.

3. 1999: Stocks end their Bull Market and the newly created money begins
flowing into Gold, which launches the 1999-???? Bull Market in Gold.

Source: MeasuringWorth.com

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 Source: MeasuringWorth.com
New York Market Price

Reasons for Owning Gold:

In addition to the strongly held belief of the Gold Bugs that "the price
always goes up because of inflation"; there are other beliefs about Gold:

1. Gold is a hedge against some unforeseen disaster; it's insurance.

It is certainly reasonable to want insurance against the irresponsible
policies of the federal government, and the FED, so the real question is
how much do you want to pay for it. Normally, the premium paid for
insurance is totally lost if the insured event does not occur. In other words,
what kind of event would result in a big payoff for owning Gold, what is the
probability that it will happen, and what is a reasonable premium to pay to
protect against this occurrence? History shows that the price of Gold can
plunge dramatically, so the decision on how much to own for insurance
should take this into account.

2. Gold is always worth something.

As a tangible rather than a paper asset like stocks, bonds, and currency, it
is difficult to imagine a scenario where Gold could become worthless like
paper assets, but there are many other tangible assets that could be worth
much more than Gold in given situations. Food, gasoline, medicine,
ammunition, batteries, diamonds, guns, and many other items could be
much more valuable than Gold. Many of these tangibles take more room or
special conditions to store, and may still have a short shelf life compared
to Gold, but if you own Gold, in an emergency, you are still going to have to

13
sell it for Dollars, or trade it for other items that you deem more useful at
the time. Therefore, investors who are inclined toward tangible assets
should look at the whole range of possibilities.

3. The recent actions of the Federal Government and the FED guarantee
Hyperinflation.
Gold is probably the best investment choice in a high-inflation
environment, but there is no evidence at this time of high inflation, and
there are good reasons why hyperinflation is unlikely, regardless of the
Conventional Wisdom.

The period from January 1967 to January 1980 produced the

highest inflation in our recent history. The PPI increased by a factor of 2.55
(155%) over those 13 years, while the price of Gold increased by a factor of
18.66.

The worst inflationary years from 1967 to 1980 were:

1973 13.07%
1974 18.89%
1979 12.59%
1980 14.10%

The more recent period that has generated a fear of hyperinflation started
in 1999 and continues at the present time. From August 1999 to August
2008, the PPI increased by a factor of 1.62 (62%), while the price of Gold
increased by a factor of 3.59. So far, this period has been far less
inflationary than 1967-1980.

Despite the recent unprecedented efforts to re-inflate the economy, the PPI
peaked in July 2008, and has been declining since then. This means that
first the rate of inflation declined for three months, and then outright
DEFLATION, i.e. negative inflation, began six months ago, and there is no
evidence of a return to inflation in any other data. High inflation or even
hyperinflation certainly could occur sometime in the future, but as most
analysts continue to proclaim that it is a foregone conclusion, they ignore
the fact that deflation is crushing all the efforts to re-inflate the monetary
system!

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 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The worst inflationary years from 1999 to 2008 were:

2000 5.74%
2004 6.23%
2005 7.29%
2008 9.85%

Most financial reporters and analysts keep referring to the present

government actions as "printing money" when they should know that very
little money is actually ever printed. The devaluation of the Dollar, i.e.
inflation, is accomplished primarily through credit creation. When
references are made to the hyperinflation of the Wiemar Republic, and to
Zimbabwe, it must be noted that those were classical currency inflations
where too much money was actually printed.

When money is printed, it can't be easily removed from circulation, but

credit lines can quickly and easily be canceled, and the value of issued
credit (loans) can collapse quickly in a credit crisis.

Bonds:
The fundamental supply and demand factors that effect bonds are the risk
that the seller/issuer will not make the interest payments, and/or the buyer
will not get his principal back at maturity; and inflation. The higher the risk,
the higher the interest rate the buyer demands. The higher the rate of
inflation, the higher the interest rate the buyer demands to adjust for the

15
lost purchasing power of the interest payments, and principal; when it is
returned.

Any country with a well-developed and important bond market has a built
in braking system against hyperinflation, because as inflation begins to
accelerate, bond buyers demand higher and higher interest rates; and
when rates go up, bonds go down, and investors lose a lot of money!

Look what happened during the previous high inflation period (1967-1980).
TBond rates surged from 7.75% in 1977 (when they first started trading) to
a high of 14.68% in 1981; an increase of 89%!! As interest rates rose, the
price of bonds plunged 47% wiping out hundreds of billions of Dollars from
investment portfolios, freezing a lot of borrowing, and slamming the brakes
on the economy which plunged the nation into a deep recession!

16
During this period, 30-year mortgages hit 18.50% and the prime rate went to
20.50%. The reaction in the bond market dumped cold water on the
overheated inflation of that time, and killed any prospect of it soaring into
hyperinflation. These forces are still in place should there be a move
toward hyperinflation.

Another way to look at the interplay of TBonds and Gold, in a high inflation
environment, is to re-examine what happened in 1980-81 from another
perspective. When Gold hit $850.00, TBonds were paying 11%, and moving
towards 15%. As the Gold Bugs proclaimed that Gold was destined to hit
$3,000-$5,000, more and more people decided that they would rather buy
TBonds, that were offering an income of 11-15% a year, guaranteed for the
next 30 years, by the U.S. government, than speculate on Gold going to
much higher levels. Money began moving out of Gold and into TBonds
which halted the rise in Gold, because TBonds offered a better alternative
to most conservative investors.

The Gold Bugs like to argue that Gold is the ultimate in conservative
investments, but it is just the opposite for most buyers! Gold pays no
interest or dividends, so most buyers are speculating on price
appreciation. That is the only reason that they buy Gold. When they sense
that price increases have stalled, they bail out. After the bubble popped, in
1980, Gold declined for the next 19 years!

Since the main reason that investors are currently piling into Gold is their

17
belief that the government is creating hyperinflation; if there is no
hyperinflation, or in fact no inflation, what is the reason to own it?

Sentiment:
To technicians, who count themselves as Contrarians, a very important
part of their analysis
is the sentiment of investors and traders. These technicians understand
that when investors get overly bullish, prices are nearing a top; and when
investors get overly bearish, prices are nearing a bottom.

The following graph plots the price of Gold as it rises off its 1999 low of
$252.50, when investors were universally bearish on Gold, to its 17 March
2008 top ($1,033.90) when the Daily Sentiment Index (a survey of traders)
made an all-time high when 97% of traders identified themselves as bullish
on Gold! For at least a year and a half, this hyper-bullish opinion has
prevailed with the certainty that "Gold has to soar to much higher levels",
even as Gold has failed to better its $1,033.90 high made almost 15 months
ago!

The Daily Sentiment Index did drop dramatically as Gold plunged into its 24
October 2008 low of $681.00, but as it rallied to the $1,000 mark again, on
20 February 2009, the DSI was up to 96%, and the price fell back, when it
could not push through $1,000.

The absolute certainty in the sentiment that Gold must go higher, reminds
me of the absolute certainty that the climate is warming. The only problem
is that when you look at recent temperature measurements, they aren't

18
actually rising, and when you look at the price of Gold it isn't actually
pushing to new highs, either! Anything is possible, in the future, but with
sentiment remaining so bullish, the probability of Gold making a large
move to the upside is fairly remote!

The hyper-bullishness about Gold has even convinced Northwestern

Mutual Life Insurance Company to move $400 million of their investment
portfolio from stocks into Gold. It seems that they lost up to 95% on some
of their stocks, but they don't think a loss of that size is possible with Gold!
Their reasoning seems to be that after years of investing in the stock
market, the events of the last 19 months have shaken their confidence
about what they thought they knew, so it is time to take the plunge into
Gold; a market where they have no knowledge or experience! Throughout
its 152-year history, Northwestern Mutual has never invested in Gold until
now. The bandwagon is getting pretty full!

Buying Gold:
Deciding how to buy Gold is much more complicated than many other
investments. Here are the three primary choices:

1. Taking delivery on Gold Coins and/or Bullion.

Most Gold Bugs buy Gold in this way. They want to take delivery on Gold
and put it in their home safe, or bury it in the back yard, so that it is outside
of the official financial system. Storing Gold in a safe deposit box is
acceptable to some, but those who are afraid that someday the government
might seal safe deposit boxes, and confiscate the contents, are going to
keep their Gold at home. To be completely safe from both the government's
fiat monetary system, and the government regulation and control of the
banking system, it is necessary to hold onto and protect the Gold yourself!

Most investors in Gold coins limit their selection to "bullion coins", as

opposed to "rare coins", that have an additional premium for their
numismatic value.

The fatal flaw in the Gold Bug's ultimate plan to protect themselves from
paper money is that they are trying to out smart the federal government. If
they succeed, the government is very likely to penalize their cleverness by
confiscating their Gold, as they did in 1933! Gold Bugs will respond by
saying that they will never turn in their Gold, so they don't care what the
government does. However, if you can be thrown in prison, if you try to
spend it; what good is it? You might have to wait 41 years (1933-1974) for it
to become legal to own and spend it, again! That's a draconian holding
penalty!

Buying Gold is a bet against the government, and they aren't going to be
happy if they lose that bet. Imagine a scenario where Gold soars to $3,000.

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The Party declares that the only people who have been buying Gold are
"unpatriotic speculators", so the government will buy back all the Gold for
$900 which will "restore" the economy for the "good people" who trust
their government. Anyone caught with Gold will be turned over to
Homeland Security as a domestic terrorist!

The other problem with coins and bullion is the large bid/ask spread that is
often charged by dealers. Some weeks ago, one of the coin dealers, on the
list below, offered to sell a 1 ounce coin at $895.00 and buy it at $802.56; an
11.52% spread! This means that if you bought the coin at $895.00, and
wanted to sell it back to the dealer 1 minute later, you would only
receive $802.56; a loss of $92.44 or 11.52%! However, another dealer had a
bid/ask spread closer to 3% recently. Spreads vary by dealer, and by the
volatility of the market. You have to be careful to get several quotes!

Pros:
Buying coins and/or bullion and storing and protecting them yourself is the
ultimate way to keep your assets out of the official financial system.

Cons:
Your house could burn down, or you could be robbed. The spreads are
often ridiculous. There are shipping costs involved, unless there is a dealer
nearby.

Sources:
American Federal Rare Coin & Bullion
Fidelitrade Bid/Ask Prices
Hancock & Harwell
Investment Rarities
Miles Franklin Ltd.
Straight Talk Assets, Inc.
John Ford Jewelers

2. The Gold ETF.

State Street Global Advisers operates the largest Gold investment trust as
an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). In essence, investors get shares of stock
in a Gold pool, but not a segregated account holding their Gold. Buying
Gold in this manner does not allow an investor to take possession of
physical Gold, but it is much more convenient, and the spreads are much
lower than for coins and bullion. Of course, the government could outlaw
Gold trusts as vehicles used by evil speculators, or the trust could go
bankrupt, be robbed, or fall prey to embezzlement, so buying Gold in this
way certainly is NOT safer than investing in coins or bullion, and taking
delivery.

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Pros:
Buying Gold through the GLD ETF is much more efficient and less
expensive than buying coins and bullion. Buy and sell orders can be
entered on the Internet with quick executions, low commissions, and very
narrow bid/ask spreads. Investors and traders can also use stop and limit
orders.

Cons:
This technique does not allow the investor to take physical possession of
his share of the Gold in the trust. In an emergency situation, where the
markets could be closed down, it would be more useful to have possession
of the Gold.

Sources:
Buy through any stock broker.

3. Storing Gold Coins and/or Bullion Offshore.

Several companies allow investors to buy Gold coins and bullion, and store
them in offshore bank vaults; typically in London or Zurich. This removes
the Gold from the possible confiscation by the U.S. government, but adds
the risk that the dealer and/or offshore bank could defraud the investor. On
the same day that the 1 ounce Gold coin for delivery was quoted at
$895.00/$802.56, a spread of 11.52%; Gold at Goldmoney.com was quoted
at $828.95/$808.80, a spread of 2.49%.

Pros:
The Gold is held out of the reach of the U.S. government. No shipping
costs.

Cons:
The risk of confiscation is replaced by the risk of dealing with a dealer and
offshore bank. There are insurance costs for storage, but they are minimal.

Sources:
GoldMoney
Buy at spot + 0.98% to 2.49% commission
Sell at spot + 0% commission

BullionVault
Perth Mint

Conclusion:
Is Gold the most conservative investment in the world, or a very risky
speculation? Paradoxically, it is both! Gold has stood the test of time

21
as "real money" that maintains its value no matter what happens to paper
currencies. However, Gold does not meet the normal definition of a
conservative investment which pays interest or dividends. This means that
investors actually face a holding penalty when compared to many other
investments. For this reason, many Gold buyers are really traders or
speculators, hoping for price increases, and they lose interest very quickly
if prices are not rising.

The modern financial system does not transact business in Gold, so the
amount of Dollars that can be had for an ounce of Gold can fluctuate
dramatically. This article clearly demonstrated that if an investor owns
Gold for very long periods of time (30-35 years) as a store of value, he is
likely to receive at least as many Dollars as he paid for it, at a later date.
However, Gold that is held for shorter periods may be subject to
drawdowns of as much as 70%, in Dollar terms, which makes it much more
of a speculative vehicle than a conservative investment.

In many ways, Gold is actually much more difficult to invest in, in a prudent
and informed manner, than stocks, bonds, or real estate, because it offers
no direct way to determine valuations. This is quite ironic since the
attraction of buying Gold is supposed to be how easy it is to make
investment decisions; all you have to do is buy-and-hold, no matter what
the current price. Unfortunately, this approach could easily be the road to
ruin!

After exploring and understanding the complexities and risks of investing

in Gold, it still makes sense for many people to hold some portion of their
assets in Gold as the proverbial insurance against some kind of financial
disaster. For those who wish to purchase this kind of insurance, the critical
questions are how much to buy, and how much to pay.

The Elliott Wave system indicates that the next big move in Gold will
probably be from its current price near $1,000 to somewhere in the $600
range (a 40% drop!) Using this perspective, the current price for insurance
is too high for me to pay, but everyone must make their own decision. I'll
be looking to buy
near $600.

The next article on Gold will present the case why $600 Gold is likely, and
explore the possibility that the current level of Deflation could accelerate,
pushing Gold down to $200, BEFORE the conditions develop that might
lead to the kind of high inflation, experienced in the 1970's, and $2,000-
$3,000 Gold!

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For more information on Gold:

CLICK HERE

David Stanowski lives in Galveston, and is a financial

analyst, investor, and the publisher of
GalvestonEconomicReport.com,
TheFinancialHelpCenter.com, and
TheRealGalveston.com.

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