RREEF Research

February 2011

Liquefied Natural Gas Market in Europe

What is Liquefied Natural Gas?
Infrastructure funds are increasingly targeting energy investments amid rising worldwide demand for energy. World energy consumption is expected to increase by 49% from 2007 to 2035.1 Specifically, electricity is the fastest growing form of end-use energy consumption. Natural gas is an important fuel for electricity generation and is less expensive than oil as a primary energy source. Global natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 1.3% per year on average, from 108 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 156 trillion cubic feet in 2035 and use in the electric power sector increases by 1.6% per year.2 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is natural gas that is stored and transported in liquid form at a temperature of -162o C. Liquefying natural gas provides a means of moving it long distance when pipeline transport is not feasible. LNG takes up 600 times less space than regular natural gas at ambient temperature and pressure, which makes it easier to store than natural gas and efficient to transport over long distances. Natural gas is turned into a liquid using a refrigeration process in a liquefaction plant. During the liquefaction process, water and other substances such as mercury, carbon dioxide and heavier hydrogen are removed from the wet gas. As a result, LNG has higher methane content and is considered cleaner than pipeline gas.3 Natural gas can be transported by specially designed cryogenic sea vessels (LNG carriers) or cryogenic road tankers. Afterwards, LNG is heated and made gaseous again in the regasification plant. Storage capacity is vital in these plants to cover supply or demand disruptions. Finally, large compressors are used to pump the gas into the pipelines.

Table of Contents: What is Liquefied Natural Gas? ........................................ 1 Structure of the LNG Value Chain ....................................... 1 LNG Supply in Europe ............. 2 LNG Demand in Europe ........... 6 Conclusion ............................... 7

Prepared by: Stella Yun Xu Assistant Vice President San Francisco USA (415) 262-7715 stella-yun.xu@rreef.com

Structure of the LNG Value Chain

LNG projects are among the most expensive energy projects. LNG plants typically cost more than comparable energy projects for a number of reasons, including remote locations, strict design and safety standards, large amounts of cryogenic material required, and a historic tendency to overdesign to ensure supply security. Estimates of LNG plant costs are difficult to pinpoint since costs vary widely depending on location and whether a project is greenfield or expansion of an existing plant.4 The high level of complexity and formidable costs associated with the setup of the LNG value chain often lead to long-term contracts and considerable vertical integration within the industry. As such, most LNG projects are highly dependent on the successful execution of all the elements in the value chain.5 Exhibit 1 shows the allocation of costs within a LNG supply chain. Within the cost structure, the largest component is the liquefaction plant where significant economies of scale can be achieved. A large portion of capacity expansion is expected to come through expansion of existing liquefaction plants in the coming years.

Production by: Michelle Woods

1 2

International Energy Outlook 2010, US Energy Information Administration, July 2010 International Energy Outlook 2010, US Energy Information Administration, July 2010 3 Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the potential impact on the market power of the gas suppliers, May 2007 4 http://www.eia.doe.gov/; US Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics and Analysis 5 Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the potential impact on the market power of the gas suppliers, May 2007

In recent years, costs throughout the LNG Exhibit 1 value chain have declined. According to LNG Chain Cost Distribution the Gas Technology Institute, liquefaction (million USD) costs have decreased 35% to 50% over Liquefaction the past ten years. The price of LNG 47% vessels has also nearly halved over the past decade. The main cost driver within Regasification 15% transport is the distance to the market. Regasification plants or receiving terminals are generally less expensive than liquefaction plants and costs have also Shipping fallen in recent years. However, the cost of 38% these plants show wide variation and are Source: Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the very site-specific. Typically, these plants potential impact on the market power of the gas suppliers, May 2007 range from $100 million to more than $2 billion. The most expensive items in these terminals are the storage tanks, which can account for one-third to one-half of the cost. The tank type, in turn, is dictated largely by location and local regulatory requirements.6 The industry is also trending towards large storage tanks to achieve economies of scale. As a result, LNG, once perceived to be a high-priced niche supply, is now seen as a scalable energy commodity.

LNG Supply in Europe

With indigenous natural gas production decreasing each year, the security of gas supply has become a major issue in European energy policy. Norway and the Netherlands have been important indigenous suppliers of natural gas to the region. The large Groningen gas field in the Netherlands has now been in production for approximately 40 years. Over the past decade, Norwegian production has rapidly increased with the establishment of the Troll and the Ormen Lange field. The UK, Germany and Italy also produce a limited amount of natural gas. Exhibit 2 shows that natural gas constitutes approximately 24% of primary energy consumption by fuel in the European Union (EU) as of 2009. Exhibit 3 shows the share of gas usage in primary energy consumption by country.
Exhibit 2 2009 EU Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel
50% Others 1% Renewables 9% Nuclear Electricity 14% Solid Fossil Fuels 16% Oil 36% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% Natural Gas 24% 15% 10% 5% 0%
KL UK HJ TR IT RO IE BE LV LT LU SK EU ES AT DE DK CZ PT FR SI PL BG GR PI CH EE SE Source: 2010 Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the Natural Gas Industry Source: 2010 Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the Natural Gas Industry

Exhibit 3 2009 Share of Natural Gas in Primary Energy Consumption (%)

24%

Currently, natural gas is primarily supplied via pipelines from Russia, Algeria and Norway. Russia presently provides more than a quarter of Europes gas. For decades, the import dependency on Russia has been a critical issue regarding the security of gas supplies for Europe. Interruptions in gas deliveries from Russia in 2006 and 2009 acted as a wake-up call for the EU. On a macro level, the majority of the worlds energy reserves are located in regions with relatively low political stability and any turmoil or conflict can hinder gas flow. Additionally,

The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status & Outlook, Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy, December 2003

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pipelines from Russia and the Middle East have to cross several borders in order to reach Europe. Specifically, pipelines from the Middle East may be difficult to construct due to geopolitical issues and technical constraints. Diversification of gas import supply chain from gas-rich supply regions is critical to mitigate these various supply risks. LNG offers the region a key opportunity to diversify and reduce risk as it can be transported via international waters to reach destination. While there are new risks that could arise as LNG vessels often need to pass through congested straits, there should be a reduction in supply risk on the whole. Additionally, with LNG infrastructure in place, terminals can receive LNG from alternative producers in the event of unforeseen supply disruption or halt in production, providing flexibility where pipeline cannot. Increased access to LNG in recent years has eased Europes dependence on pipeline deliveries. Exhibit 4 shows that 19% of net gas imports to EU27 from non-EU country are in the form of LNG. Over half of LNG supplies entering EU27 come from Algeria and Qatar (see Exhibit 5). Algeria is the primary LNG-exporter to Europe with deliveries to France, Spain, Belgium, Italy and the UK. Export from Middle East such as Egypt and Qatar has mostly supplied Spain. In particular, the share of Qatari imports in the EU has significantly risen in recent years. Export from Nigeria began in 1999 and has primarily supplied Spain and France. Additionally, Europe also receives LNG imports from other sources such as Oman, Trinidad and Tobago and Libya.
Exhibit 4 2009 Net Imports to EU27 from Non-EU Countries by Type of Transport
Pipeline 81%

Exhibit 5 2009 Breakdown of EU27 LNG Supplies

Others* <1% Libya Oman 1% 3% Norway 3% Trinidad Tobago 10% Egypt 11% Nigeria 17% Algeria 30%

Qatar 25%

LNG 19%

*Including supplies from sources which cannot be identified

Source: 2010 Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the Natural Gas Industry

Source: 2010 Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the Natural Gas Industry

Among the countries in the EU, Spain is the largest LNG importer (see Exhibit 6). Spain is heavily dependent on imports for gas supply as it is constrained by limited indigenous production and access to Northwest Europe. In fact, it is the worlds third largest LNG market, behind Japan and South Korea, and the fastest growing major LNG importer in the first nine months of 2008.7 Gas demand in Spain has grown by around 13% per annum since 1996 and the country continues to expand its gas infrastructure. From a demand perspective, low gas penetration in the Spanish residential and commercial sectors means gas usage in these sectors is expected to grow strongly.8 France is the second most important importer of LNG within the EU and has tried to position itself as a European hub for LNG imports. The country receives some 25% of its natural gas imports in this form. Most French LNG imports come from Algeria, with smaller quantities from Nigeria.9

7 8

Gas glut reaches Europe, Deutsche Bank Research, July 8, 2010 Gas glut reaches Europe, Deutsche Bank Research, July 8, 2010 9 http://www.eoearth.org/article/Energy_profile_of_France; Energy profile of France, The Encyclopedia of Earth, February 2010

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Exhibit 6 2009 LNG Supplies in EU27 (LNG Net Imports)

2500 2000

(PJ - GCV)

1500 1000 500 0 EU27 Spain France UK Belgium Italy Portugal Greece

Source: 2010 Eurogas Statistical Report, The European Union of the Natural Gas Industry Note: PJ GCV (1 PJ GCV = 25.6 million m3 gas )

Exhibits 7a and 7b show the current existing, proposed, approved and under construction liquefaction and regasification facilities across Europe. Europe has made massive investments in LNG terminals in recent years and will continue to do so in order to boost purchase of LNG as it seeks to reduce dependence on gas piped from Russia and Algeria. Amid rising import demand, more regasification terminals in Europe are needed to broaden connection with the Middle East. The Middle East is expected to become the fastest growing LNG exporter in the coming years. The region has vast gas reserves that can supply East Asia, Europe and North America. Specifically, Qatar is expected to continue to aggressively expand exports. Europe is adding about 65 billion in LNG import capacity with more than 150 billion of new capacity in the planning stages.10 In the past, the ability to move more LNG to European markets has been constrained by a lack of access to regasification capacity due to the number of available terminals as well as the existence of long-term capacity rights held by a small number of industry participants.11 In May 2009 South Hook facility opened in the UK as Europes biggest terminal with provisional capacity of 10.5 billion m. The second development stage will mean twice this amount can be delivered. This brings the annual transmission capacity of regasification terminals in Europe (including Turkey) to around 130.6 billion m.12 More terminals in Belgium, France, Italy, Spain and the UK will be taken into service in the next few years.13 The transport of LNG by road tankers is also well developed. NGVA Europe envisages an LNG Blue Corridor, a road offering several LNG refueling possibilities for heavy vehicles, along the Mediterranean coast.14

10

Europe May Boost LNG Imports to Bypass Russian and Algerian Gas, http://www.lngworldnews.com/europemay-boost-lng-imports-to-bypass-russian-and-algerian-gas/; June 9th, 2010 11 LNG in Europe, An Overview of European Import Terminals; King & Spalding, 2006 12 Nominal regasification capacity 13 Gas glut reaches Europe, Deutsche Bank Research, July 8, 2010 14 LNG Corridors the Right Solution for Europe, NGVA Europe, January 10, 2011

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Exhibit 7a LNG Marine Terminals Europe (Map A)

East Irish Sea, Gateway LNG & Gas Storage Approximate Location, Morecombe Bay, Hoegh LNG Amwich, Anglesey, Wales Barrow (Barrow in Furness) Island Shannon LNG, Hess LNG, Shannon Estuary Ireland Grain LNG + Expansion, Isle of Grain, Kent LionGas LNG, Rotterdam Offshore Port of Rotterdam Dutch Gate Terminal + Expansion, Province of Zuid Holland Netherlands Belgium Zeebreege (Fluxys LNG) + Expansion Conoco Philips-Essent, Eemshaven Port of Zeebreege, Exmar

Norsea Pipeline Limited, Teesside Teesside GasPort, Teesside

South Hook LNG + Expansion, Milford Haven Dragon LNG + Expansion, Milford Haven Antifer (La Poterie-Cap-dAntifer), Upper Normandy Montoir-de-Bretagne + Expansion, Pays de la Loire Le Verdon (Le Verdon-sur-Mer), Aquitaine Bilbao, Vizcaya Province Gijn + Espansion, Northern Asturias Region Regansoa LNG, El Ferrol LNG/Mugardos, La Corua Province Sines LNG + Expansion, Municipality of Alentejo

United Kingdom

Dunkerque, Nord-Pas-de-Calais Fos sur Mer, Fos Cavaou France Fos sur Mer, Port of Marseille Fos sur Mer, Provence-Alpes-Cte dAzur

Regasification Facility Status Existing Proposed Under Construction Approved

Portugal Spain

Barcelona + Expansion, Barcelona Province Sagunto, Valencia Province Cartegena + Expansion, Murcia Province Huelva + Expansion(s), Huelva Province

Source: California Energy Commission, June 2010

Exhibit 7b LNG Marine Terminals Europe (Map B)

Liquefaction Facility Status Existing Regasification Facility Status Existing Proposed Under Construction Approved
Norway Sweden LNG Port of Rostock, near Berlin Wilhelmshaven, Lower Saxony Fluesigerdgas Terminalgasellschaft, Lower Saxony Germany (Endesa), Treiste, Province of Treiste & Muggia, Province of Treiste (Eni) Approximate Location, Central or Northern Adriatic Sea North Adriatic LNG Project, Rovigo, Province of Rovigo La Spezia, Panigaglia, Province of La Spezia Rosignano Maritomo, Province of Liverno Livorno, Province of Liverno Castiglione della Pescaia, Province of Grosseto Livorno OLT Cross Gas Porto Torres Sassari, Province of Sassari Sardinia Approximate location, between Sicily and Naples Offshore Porto Empedocle, Province of Agrigento Priolo Gargalio-Augusta, Province of Syracuse, Island of Sicily Sicily Coriligliano Calabro, Province of Calabria San Ferdinando, Province of Regio Calabria Gioia Tauro, Province of Calabria Cyprus Vassikiko (aka Vasilikos) Italy Krk Island (Adria LNG) Slovenia Romania Croatia Taranto, Taranto Province Brindisi + Expansion, Province of Brindisi Albania Greece Turkey Approximate Location, Fier Region Approximate Location, Marmara Ereglisi Approximate Location, Aliaga LNG, Gulf of Izmir Revythoussa + Expansion Approximate Location, Black Sea Constanta, Black Sea Poland Ukraine Approximate Location, Offshore Le Marche Region Lithuania Brunnsviksholmen Finland

Snhvit (Melkya Island, Finnmark)

Estonia Approximate Location , Baltic Region

winoujcie, Port of Szczecin

Source: California Energy Commission, June 2010

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Globally there is nearly twice as much regasification capacity operating or under construction compared to liquefaction capacity. This imbalance is likely to remain an ongoing feature of the LNG trade despite an unprecedented expansion in liquefaction capacity in global LNG markets in 2009.15 According to Dealogic, the $18.3bn Papua New Guinea LNG development project topped 2009 Project Finance deals. Exhibit 8 shows that a significant number of projects have been completed in Poland, Netherlands and Russia over the past 5 years. Poland joined the ever-growing list of countries importing Qatars LNG after signing a framework agreement with Qatargas Operating Company in 2009. Polish state-controlled oil and natural gas company PGNiG will be provided with approximately 1 million tonnes of LNG annually by Qatargas. The issue of Poland's gas supply diversification intensified after the row between Ukraine and Russia over prices which resulted in reduced gas deliveries to some eastern and southern European states. Exhibit 9 shows that a significant number of LNG projects are in the pipeline for Russia, followed by Italy and the UK.
Exhibit 8 Closed LNG Projects for Europe January 1, 2006 - December 31, 2010
3,000 2,500

Exhibit 9 LNG Projects in the Pipeline for Europe

16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

(In $Millions)

2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

Poland Netherlands Russion France Federation Spain Greece Italy Multi Western Europe Countries

(In $Millions)

Russion Federation

Italy

United Romania France Kingdom

Poland Germany Spain

Moldova

Note: Project finance and non project finance LNG deals Source: Dealogic Projectware, January 2011

Note: Project finance and non project finance LNG deals Source: Dealogic Projectware, January 2011

LNG Demand in Europe

Demand for LNG in Europe has been steadily increasing over the past decade and is expected to continue to increase over the coming years. The International Energy Agency expects demand for natural gas in Europe to rise to 676 billion cubic meters by 2020. Additional gas from new suppliers will require massive investment in production and transportation capacity. As most of the new supply is expected to come from countries with relatively low political stability, a significant part of the increased supply is expected to come in the form of LNG. Additionally, as costs throughout the LNG value chain continue to decline, LNG will become increasingly competitive to pipelines. Furthermore, the emergence of tradable pollution rights and heighted climate change awareness can further underscore the demand for LNG. Natural gas releases a lower amount of CO2 than oil and coal and is ecologically the most acceptable fossil fuel. Demand for LNG, however, can be hindered by growing demand from other regions around the world. Depleting North American gas reserves and rapid economic growth in China may redirect gas supply from Europe in the future, resulting in higher gas prices that can lead to fuel substitution.16 Nevertheless, Europe has a substantial cost advantage due to its vicinity to major suppliers. Ultimately, demand for LNG is expected to increase strongly both in absolute number and relative to pipeline imports over the coming years.

15 16

Natural Gas Market Review, International Energy Agency, 2009 Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the potential impact on the market power of the gas suppliers, May 2007

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The recent revision of the European Commissions Trans-European Energy Network policy highlights the importance of LNG terminals to cover Europes future increasing demand for natural gas. The Commission report indicates that the energy networks currently in place are dated and are not designed to cope with the energy challenges faced today. It assessed that planned pipelines will be sufficient to provide this capacity for demands in 2020, but that beyond 2020 new LNG terminals and developments in storage will be required.17

Conclusion
A strong need exists for LNG infrastructure investment in Europe. From a supply perspective, European indigenous gas production is declining and security of supply is a big concern for the region. Currently, Algeria, Russia and Norway supply 53% of EU27s natural gas supply. An increase in LNG imports from new suppliers would reduce the current suppliers market power. Moreover, LNG infrastructure offers great flexibility to the region because it is possible to change supplier or receiver without changing existing infrastructure.18 Simultaneously, gas demand is expected to increase considerably for the region. Natural gas is generally considered more profitable as a fuel for electricity generation. Gas fired power plants also produce twice the electricity per ton of CO2 emitted compared to coal fired plants.19 Going forward, the emergence of tradable pollution rights and continual declining costs throughout the value chain can further underscore the demand for LNG. Moreover, technological progress has made LNG competitive with pipelines on increasingly shorter distances. From a global perspective, LNG demand is expected to exceed supply growth in 2011, driven primarily on the back of demand from the developing regions of Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.20 Overall, LNG and gas markets are expected to tighten over the next few years. Regionally, gas prices in Europe are expected to gradually start picking up again in 2014. Given an assortment of supply and demand factors presented above, LNG is expected to play an increasingly critical role in the development of energy markets across Europe going forward.

17 18

LNG Blue Corridors the Right Solution for Europe, NGVA Europe, January 10, 2011 Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the potential impact on the market power of the gas suppliers, May 2007 19 Palm, Thomas Fredrik, The future of LNG in Europe and the potential impact on the market power of the gas suppliers, May 2007 20 Global LNG demand to exceed supply in 2011, Platts, January 12, 2011

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