1

The Electric Vehicle Market:

Composition and Characterization
Including projections and strategies for the penetration of current and emerging niche markets
January 2009 By Ian Winbrock

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PAGE 3

ASSIGNMENT I: DEFINE OF THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET II. III. DEFINITIONS / CLASSIFICATIONS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKETS / POSSIBLE TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY 4 5

ASSIGNMENT II: CHARECTARIZATION OF THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET IV. V. VI. NEV COMPETATIVE ANALYSIS UEV COMPETATIVE ANALYSIS FEV COMPETATIVE ANALYSIS 10 17 17

ASSIGNMENT III: PROJECTIONS FOR THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET VII. VIII. IX. X. XI. ELECTRIC VEHICLE PROJECTIONS, AN INTRODUCTION NEV RETAIL PROJECTIONS NEV & UEV FLEET PROJECTIONS HEV RETAIL PROJECTIONS HEV FLEET PROJECTIONS 28 28 29 29 31

3 SECTION I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this report is to define, characterize and project the total market for electric vehicles in the United States. To this end I compartmentalized the task into three separate assignments, and then broke each further down in order to have a macro level view of the electric vehicle market while still being able to assess micro-level opportunities within the overall market. Define the electric vehicle market Characterize the market Project the market. By defining the market I mean to: Formalize a definition of an electric vehicle, denote each classification of vehicle under that definition, as well as outlining possible targets of opportunity that currently use, or would utilize electric vehicles (if the market needs were met), making it easier to size, characterize and project each individual market. By characterize the market I mean to: Assess, compile, and categorize the vehicle classifications in order to create a competitive analysis that encompasses the current and future players in the electric vehicle market. The competitive analysis addresses: The scope of players Their product offerings The markets to whom they are directed How they are positioned How our current product line compares By projecting the market I mean to: Size the emerging market for electric vehicles, while complimentary identifying niche opportunities and developing penetration strategies based on case studies, research reports, market insight from seasoned automotive veterans, and available white papers using customary statistical data.

ASSIGNMENT I: DEFINE OF THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET

SECTION II: DEFINITIONS / CLASSIFICATIONS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES Electric Vehicles: Ground vehicles that are propelled by an electric motor, and powered by energy from rechargeable batteries or another onboard energy storage device. NEVs (Neighborhood Electric Vehicles): Neighborhood Electric Vehicles are Federally-approved street-legal vehicles that are classified under Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard 500 as a Low Speed Vehicle. NEVs are defined by FMVSS 500 as having the following features: Four-wheels A GVWR of less than 3,000 pounds A top speed of between 20 mph to 25 mph. Those states that authorize NEV use on their roads generally restrict their operation to streets with a maximum speed limit of 35 mph or 45 mph. Because of FMVSS 500, car dealers that sell NEVs cannot legally sell the vehicles to go faster than 25 mph, but a buyer can easily and inexpensively modify their NEV to travel 35 mph. These speed restrictions, combined with a typical driving range of 30 miles per charge and a characteristic three-year battery durability are required because of a lack of federally mandated safety equipment and features which NEVs can not accommodate because of their design. To satisfy FMVSS 500 manufacturers of NEVs must be equip their vehicles with the following features: Three-point seat belts Windshields and windshield wipers Running lights (headlights and brake lights) Reflectors Rear view mirrors Turn signals. UEVs (Urban Electric Vehicles): An emerging market created by three wheeled vehicles and the favoring of NEVs on public roads, the UEV is capable of reaching speeds of up to 50 miles per hour. Seven states (Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, Tennessee and Washington) have altered their NEV laws to allow UEVs (sometimes known as Medium Speed Vehicles) to travel speeds of up to 50 mph (Kentucky). HEVs (Highway Electric Vehicles): An electric vehicle capable of reaching and sustaining highway speeds (Between 60 and 80 mph).

SECTION III: ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKETS / POSSIBLE TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY Retail o Vehicle dealers Consumers Motorcycles o Three-wheeled Low-speed o Micro-sedan o Micro-truck o Micro-van Microcars o Microcar Sedan o Citycar o Subcompact o Compact o Mid-sized o Full-speed o Entry-level luxury o Mid-sized luxury o Full-sized luxury Sport o Compact o Sedan o Sportscar o Grand Tourer o Supercar o Muscle Car o Pony Car Van o Minivan Truck o Pickup Off-road o Sport Utility Vehicle o Sport Utility Truck o Sport Utility Convertible o Crossover Sport Utility Vehicle Fleet o Public sector

6 Government National (Within each department are many subdepartments with their own smaller divisions) o Executive office of the president o Department of agriculture o Department of commerce o Department of defense o Department of education o Department of energy o Department of health and human services o Department of homeland security o Department of housing and urban development o Department of the interior o Department of justice o Department of labor o Department of state o Department of transportation o Department of the treasury o Department of veterans affairs Regional o State (Similar to the federal government, state governments are comprised of departments, and smaller agencies) Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland

7 Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

County o Counties / Boroughs (Alaska) / Parishes (Louisiana) / County Seats (Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts) Municipalities / Incorporated entities o Cities o Towns o Villages Tribal o Tribal governments vary in size and operation from several tribal heads to governments with the structure of small municipalities Independent agencies

8 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Advisory Council on Historic Preservation Agency for International Development American Battle Monuments Commission AmeriCorps Appalachian Regional Commission U.S. Arctic Research Commission Central Intelligence Agency US Commission on Civil Rights Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe Commodity Futures Trading Commission Consumer Product Safety Commission Corporation for National and Community Service Court Services and Offender Supervision Agency Delaware River Basin Commission United States Environmental Protection Agency Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Export-Import Bank of the United States Farm Credit Administration Federal Communications Commission Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Election Commission Federal Maritime Commission Federal Mine Safety & Health Review Commission Federal Reserve System Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board Federal Trade Commission Foreign Claims Settlement Commission of the United States General Services Administration Institute of Museum and Library Services Inter-American Foundation International Trade Commission Learn and Serve America National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Archives and Records Administration National Capital Planning Commission National Credit Union Administration National Endowment for the Arts National Endowment for the Humanities National Ice Center National Labor Relations Board National Railroad Passenger Corporation

9 o National Science Foundation o National Transportation Research Center o National Transportation Safety Board o Nuclear Regulatory Commission o Office of Government Ethics o Office of Personnel Management o Peace Corps o Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation o United States Postal Service o United States Postal Inspection Service o Office of the Inspector General o Postal Regulatory Commission o Securities and Exchange Commission o Selective Service System o Senior Corps o Small Business Administration o Social Security Administration o Susquehanna River Basin Commission o Tennessee Valley Authority o United States Trade and Development Agency Quasi-federal agencies o Legal Services Corporation o Smithsonian institution

o Private sector Small business Delivery Construction PR / Driving billboard Commercial Fleet management companies o GE Capital Solutions o PHH o ARI o LeasePlan o Wheels o Enterprise o Donlen o Emkay o Mike Albert Leasing o BBL o American Leasing Corporation o ALD o Sutton Leasing

10 Hospitals Utilities Delivery Construction Food and Beverage Insurance Pharmaceutical Airports Rental o Voluntary sector (Non-profit) Advocacy groups Think tanks Political parties Charitable organizations Volunteer community organizations Religious organizations

ASSIGNMENT II: CHARECTARIZATION OF THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET

SECTION IV: NEV COMPETATIVE ANALYSIS Company Profile: American Electric Product Portfolio: Kurrent Market Focus: Retail o NEV Micro sedan Product Positioning: Affordability American made Chic Vehicle Comparison: Kurrent VS ZAP Xebra Truck ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Bigman Electric Vehicles Product Portfolio: Bm48

11 Shorty Ext48 Market Focus: Retail o NEV Micro sedan Fleet (Public / Private sector) o Cruise Lines o Theme Parks o Universities o Zoos o Resorts o Airports Product Positioning: Affordable Utility Vehicle Comparison: Bm48 VS ZAP Xebra Sedan Shorty VS ZAP Xebra Truck Ext48 VS No comparable product ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Canadian Electric Vehicles Ltd. Product Portfolio: Might-E-truck Isuzu npr electric truck Market Focus: Fleet (Public / Private Sector) o Municipalities o Airports o Emergency response Product Positioning: Utility Durable Dependable Vehicle Comparison: Might-E-Truck VS ZAPTruck XL Isuzu npr electric truck VS No comparable product

12 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Columbia ParCar Corporation Product Portfolio: Summit o SMT-2 o SMT-4 o SUV-SN o SUV-LN Mega o Cargo bed o Drop side o Van o Tilt bed o Refuse hauler Market Focus: Retail o NEV Micro sedan Micro van Fleet (Public / Private Sector) o Airports o Government o Golf Courses o Warehouse Product Positioning: Customizable Safe Efficient Green Master planned communities Vehicle Comparison: SMT-2 VS No comparable product SMT-4 VS No comparable product SUV-SN VS ZAP Xebra Truck SUV-LN VS ZAP Xebra Truck MEGA Cargo bed VS Zap Truck XL MEGA Drop side VS No comparable product MEGA Van VS ZAP Shuttle Van MEGA Tilt bed VS No comparable product MEGA Refuse hauler VS No comparable product

13 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Dymac Vehicles International Electric Vehicles International Product Portfolio: DVG Utility Vehicles o Mini Truck DC o 7 Passenger Mini Van o Cargo Mini Van EVI Shuttle Vehicles o STAR 8 Passenger Shuttle o STAR 11 Passenger Shuttle o STAR 14 Passenger Shuttle Market Focus: Fleet (Public / Private Sector) o Government o Municipality o Resort Product Positioning: Dependable Durable Comfortable Vehicle Comparison: Mini Truck DC VS ZAP Truck XL 7 Passenger Mini Van VS ZAP Van Shuttle Cargo Mini Van VS ZAP Van Shuttle STAR 8 Passenger Shuttle VS No comparable product STAR 11 Passenger Shuttle VS No comparable product STAR 14 Passenger Shuttle VS No comparable product ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Dynasty Electric Car Corporation Product Portfolio: IT Sedan IT Sport IT Tropic IT Van IT Utility Market Focus:

14 Retail o NEV Micro sedan Fleet (Public / Private Sector) o Master Planned Communities o Destination resorts o Universities o Industrial complexes Product Positioning: Alternative Innovative Customizable Vehicle Comparison: IT Sedan VS ZAP Xebra Sedan IT Sport VS No comparable product IT Tropic VS No comparable product IT Van VS ZAP Van Shuttle IT Utility VS ZAP Xebra Truck ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: E-ride Industries Product Portfolio: EXV2 EXV4 Market Focus: Fleet Retail o NEV Product Positioning: Rugged American made Customizable Dependable Efficient Comfortable Versatile Spacious Large Vehicle Comparison: EXV2 VS ZAP Xebra truck

15 EXV4 VS ZAP Xebra

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Global Electric Motorcars Product Portfolio: GEM e2 GEM e4 GEM e6 GEM eS GEM eL GEM eL XD Market Focus: Fleet (Public / Private Sector) o Master planned communities o Municipalities o Universities o Colleges o Industrial complexes o Security companies o Airports o Resorts Retail o NEV Micro sedan Product Positioning: Sophisticated Simple Fun Versatile Efficient Affordable Reliable Cost-effective Environmentally friendly Vehicle Comparison: GEM e2 VS ZAP Xebra Sedan GEM e4 VS ZAP Xebra Sedan GEM e6 VS ZAP Xebra Sedan GEM eS VS ZAP Xebra Truck

16 GEM eL VS ZAP Xebra Truck GEM eL XD VS ZAP Xebra Truck

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Miles Automotive Product Portfolio: ZX40S Advanced design ZX40ST Market Focus: Retail o NEV Micro sedan Micro truck Fleet (Public / Private Sector) o Universities o Federal or military o Municipalities o Wastewater treatment facilities o Corporate campuses Product Positioning: Green Cost-efficient Versatile Solution Practical Vehicle Comparison: ZX40S VS ZAP Xebra Sedan ZX40ST VS ZAP Xebra Truck ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Tiger Trucks Product Portfolio: Tiger Star o Star o StarExtended Cab o StarCrew Cab Tiger Star Van o Star Van

17 o StarCargo Van o StarVolume Van Market Focus: Fleet Product Positioning: Niche applications Advanced Vehicle Comparison: Tiger Star VS ZAP Truck XL Tiger Star Extended Cab VS No comparable product Tiger Star Crew Cab VS No comparable product Tiger Star Van VS ZAP Van Shuttle Tiger StarCargo Van VS No comparable product Tiger StarVolume Van VS No comparable product ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Vantage Vehicles Product Portfolio: Green Truck o EVX1000 o EVR1000 Green Van o EVC1000 o EVP1000 Market Focus: Fleet (Public) o Government o Universities o Municipalities Product Positioning: Cargo Emissions Maintenance Free No Gas Extreme Efficiency Performance Vehicle Comparison: EVX1000 ZAP Truck XL EVR1000 ZAP Truck X: EVC1000 ZAP Van Shuttle EVP1000 ZAP Van Shuttle

18 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: ZENN (Zero Emissions No Noise) Product Portfolio: ZENN Market Focus: Retail NEV Micro sedan Product Positioning: Savings Cutting edge Approval Environmental Vehicle Comparison: ZENN VS ZAP Xebra Sedan SECTION V: UEV COMPETATIVE ANALYSIS Company Profile: BG Automotive Product Portfolio: Unnamed Market Focus: Retail o Sedan Compact Product Positioning: Affordable Safe Reliable Vehicle Comparison: Unnamed BG VS. ZAP Xebra Sedan SECTION VI: FEV COMPETATIVE ANALYSIS Company Profile: Aptera Product Portfolio: Typ-1e Market Focus: Retail

19 Motorcycle 3-wheeled

Fleet Product Positioning: Aerodynamic Lightweight Safety Vehicle Comparison: Aptera Typ-1e VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: BYD automotive Product Portfolio: BYD F3e Market Focus: Retail Sedan Compact Product Positioning: Masterpiece World class Remarkable Energy-saving Technology driven Trendy Vehicle Comparison: BYD F3e VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: BMW Product Portfolio: Mini-e Market Focus: Retail Sedan Subcompact Product Positioning: Zero Emissions Seamless

20 Future of mobility Carbon-free driving Vehicle Comparison: Mini-e VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Chrysler Product Portfolio: Dodge Zeo Chrysler EcoVoyager Jeep EV Dodge EV Market Focus: Retail o Sedan Mid-sized o Sedan Full-sized o Off-road Sport Utility Vehicle o Sport Sportscar Product Positioning: Innovation Luxury Clean Economical Solution Easy on the environment Vehicle Comparison: Dodge Zeo VS ZAP Alias Chrysler EcoVoyager VS ZAP Alias Jeep EV VS ZAP Alias Dodge EV VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Commuter cars

21 Product Portfolio: Tango Market Focus: Retail o Sport Sportscar Product Positioning: Fastest Commuter vehicle Parking Safety Stability Acceleration Performance Vehicle Comparison: Tango VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Ford Product Portfolio: Ford Reflex Volvo C30 ReCharge Market Focus: Retail o Sedan Entry-level luxury o Sedan Full-sized Product Positioning: Generous Spoils High performance First-class safety Distinctive Vehicle Comparison: Ford Reflex VS ZAP Alias Volvo C30 ReCharge VS ZAP Alias -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

22

Company Profile: Fisker automotive Product Portfolio: Karma Market Focus: Retail o Sport Sportscar Product Positioning: Eco-chic Green Technology Revolutionary design Vehicle Comparison: Fisker Karma VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: General Motors Product Portfolio: Cadillac Provoq Chevrolet Volt Saturn Flextreme Market Focus: Retail o Sedan Full sized luxury o Sedan Mid-sized o Sedan Full-sized Product Positioning: Revolutionary Fully Charged Gas-free Freedom Vehicle Comparison: Cadillac Provoq VS ZAP Alias Chevrolet Volt VS ZAP Alias Saturn Flextreme VS ZAP Alias

23 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Green vehicles Product Portfolio: Buckshot Triac Market Focus: Retail o Motorcycle 3-wheeled Fleet o Municipalities o Universities o Corporations Product Positioning: Reliable Sophisticated design Exceeding expectations Modern Innovative Precise handling Vehicle Comparison: Green Vehicles Buckshot VS ZAP Xebra Truck Triac VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Hybrid technologies Product Portfolio: LiV Dash LiV Wise LiV Rush LiV Surge LiV Flash Market Focus: Retail o Microcars Microcar o Sedan Subcompact

24 o Sportscar Supercar o Sedan Mid-sized o Sedan Subcompact Product Positioning: Emission-free Innovative Intelligence Lithium-powered Vehicle Comparison: Hybrid Technologies LiV Dash VS ZAP Alias Hybrid Technologies LiV Wise VS ZAP Alias Hybrid Technologies LiV Rush VS ZAP Alias Hybrid Technologies LiV Surge VS ZAP Alias Hybrid Technologies LiV Flash VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Mercedes-Benz Product Portfolio: Smart Fortwo EV Market Focus: Retail Microcars Microcar Product Positioning: Challenge the status quo Eco friendly $99 dollar reservation program Safety Vehicle Comparison: Smart Fortwo EV VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Miles Automotive group Product Portfolio: ZX40ST Market Focus:

25 Retail Sedan Compact Product Positioning: Green Style Head turner Emission free Vehicle Comparison: ZX40ST VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Mitsubishi Product Portfolio: iMiev Market Focus: Retail Sedan Subcompact Product Positioning: Safety Clever Solid Fun Vehicle Comparison: Mitsubishi iMiev VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Myers motors Product Portfolio: NMG Market Focus: Retail Motorcycle 3 wheeled Product Positioning: Affordable Lithium powered Practical Realizing a dream

26 Vehicle Comparison: Myers Motors NMG VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Nissan Product Portfolio: Mixim Pivo 2 Denki Cube Market Focus: Retail o Sedan Compact o Sedan Subcompact o Sedan Compact Product Positioning: Mobile device Fun Interactive Personalize Connect Share Vehicle Comparison: Nissan Mixim Nissan Pivo 2 Nissan Denki Cube ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Phoenix motorcars Product Portfolio: SUV SUT Market Focus: Retail o Sports Utility Fleet Product Positioning:

27 Global cooling Solution Viability Vehicle Comparison: Phoenix motorcars SUV Phoenix motorcars SUT ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Tesla Motors Product Portfolio: Roadster Market Focus: Retail Sports car Sedan Product Positioning: Performance Sleek Efficient Secure Charged Roadworthy Vehicle Comparison: Tesla Motors Roadster VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Think Product Portfolio: City Open Ox Market Focus: Retail o Sedan Subcompact Product Positioning: Safety Comfort Giving

28 Zero emissions Vehicle Comparison: City think VS ZAP Alias Open think VS ZAP Alias Ox think VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Toyota Product Portfolio: PHEV Prius Market Focus: Retail o Sedan Mid-sized Product Positioning: Prius for the people Efficient Safe Comforts Vehicle Comparison: Toyota PHEV Prius VS ZAP Alias ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: Venture Vehicles Product Portfolio: Persu electric drive Market Focus: Motorcycles o Three wheel Product Positioning: Fly the road Freeing Control Speed Vehicle Comparison: Venture Vehicles Persu VS ZAP Alias

29 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Company Profile: ZENN Product Portfolio: City ZENN Market Focus: Sedan Compact Product Positioning: Mysterious New Ahead of the curve Advanced technology Vehicle Comparison: City ZENN VS ZAP Alias

ASSIGNMENT III: PROJECTIONS FOR THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET

SECTION VII: ELECTRIC VEHICLE PROJECTIONS, AN INTRODUCTION The projection portion of this report was particularly challenging for me because I assumed that the force factors that caused the market to emerge (in the past 10 years as well as in the past 10 months) have either eroded to some extent, or no longer influence consumer purchasing decisions. While factors such as global warming still influences

30 consumer behavior, the global credit crisis, drop in fuel prices as well as advancements in hybrid drive technology have greatly influenced sales of some categories of electric vehicles. SECTION VIII: NEV RETAIL PROJECTIONS Market potential between 7,500 and 15,000 units a year during normal market conditions. Fluctuating fuel costs, changes in consumer behavior in reaction to credit crunch and general financial insecurity have caused demand for neighborhood electric vehicles to decrease in the retail sector. In the commercial sector, massive budget cuts in the public sector (Universities / Utilities / Municipalities) as well as downsizing in the private sector (Large Corporations / Utilities / Taxi / Rental Agency); about 3000 units a year total. http://www.autobloggreen.com/2006/12/15/the-kurrent-is-kute-but-will-itkonnect-with-konsumers/ : December 15th 2006 Scott Thornton, president of American electric; 15,000 units a year Rick Kasper, president of Global Electric Motorcars; 7,500 units a year http://www.greencars.org/pdf/gcimarketing.pdf: September 2000 The Current and Future market for electric vehicles .04% of new light duty vehicle buyers choose NEVs 746,789 light duty vehicles sold November 2008 http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/12/uslight-duty-v.html Total market for NEVs = 2987 ~ 3000 units *NOTE: Participants involved in survey were consumers in CA (purchase decisions were not fleet related) * SECTION IX: NEV & UEV FLEET PROJECTIONS The most successful NEV Company in the United States is Global Electric Motorcars. Global Electric Motorcars (GEM) continues to dominate both the retail and fleet markets because they are contracted with the General Services Administration, the official procurement department of the United States Government. GEM does between 3000 and 4000 units a year because they are one of the only Neighborhood Electric Vehicles that are on GSA schedule. With the shrinking number of retail units that can be sold, NEV fleet opportunities through the general services administration remains a pregnant opportunity in terms of fleet. The process of GSA certification takes anywhere between 6 and 18 months, and requires that the product be made or at the very least substantially transformed in the United States (>51%). SECTION X: UEV RETAIL PROJECTIONS

31 Market potential between 16,000 and 33,000 units during normal market conditions. Fluctuating fuel costs, changes in consumer behavior in reaction to credit crunch and general financial insecurity combined with massive budget cuts in public sector and downsizing in private sector; 12,000 units a year. http://www.greencars.org/pdf/gcimarketing.pdf September 2000 The Current and Future market for electric vehicles 1.6% of new light duty vehicle buyers choose UEVs 746,789 light duty vehicles sold November 2008 http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/12/uslight-duty-v.html Total market for NEVs = 11948 ~ 12000 units *NOTE: Participants involved in survey were consumers in CA (purchase decisions were not fleet related) * SECTION XI: HEV RETAIL PROJECTIONS

32

33

SECTION XII: HEV FLEET PROJECTIONS Fleets are easily the largest target within the electric vehicle market. Fleet managers (according to GCIs Fleet Managers survey in June of 2000) want three critical criteria from their electric vehicles: Lower purchase price Wider availability Greater range (of at least 100 miles) Fleet purchasing decisions are based on: Brand loyalty Past experience Vehicle suitability for its planned use Price, taking into account purchase price, operating cost, and infrastructure development costs A successful Electric Vehicle marketing strategy towards fleet accounts would: Present fleet buyers with the same purchase process that they are used to Consistent in their marketing programs to fleets Presented an easier buying process than normal to fleet customers

34