Information and value flow: an experiment in economics of attention.

Benjamin Luiz Franklin1 Abstract

The objective of this paper is to present the main concepts of the economics of attention and discuss them by contrasting to the results of a financial assets mining experiment related to the performance of buying and selling calls on the stock exchange in So Paulo. We intend to think upon the concept of value as related to attention while an element of irreversibility indicated by the scarcity of patterns, found in abundant and constant flows of information which characterize the contemporary world. The experiment aims to offer, as practical result, an alert system of opportune moments intended for inexperienced investors to make calls based on artificial intelligence (AI) and integrated into social networks (http://twitter.com/ #! / mymarx) on BMFBOVESPA. This experiment deals financial markets dynamics as computational problems, related to pattern recognition, and operated by the principles of the economics of attention, noticing that the crisis in financial markets in the last three years has often set an environment characterized as irrational, appropriate for this type of approach. Based on the results obtained we have conclude that it is possible to treat the dynamics of financial markets as computational problems and the intense flow of information, characteristic of the financial market, is a fertile field for empirical verification of the principles of the attention economy.

Keywords: economics of attention, information flow, value, scarcity

1 Benjamin Luiz Franklin belfra@gmail.com

PHD in knowledge engineering and management by the Federal University of Santa Catarina Brazil. Consultant in Computational Intelligence. MA in System engineering by the Institute of Technological Research So Paulo, Brazil. Specialist in Psicanalysis by the Estcio de S Univeristy.

Information, scarcity and value

The economic dynamic is driven by scarcity. Scarcity, for its turn, is produced artificially, by a set of rules that define how the scarce can be identified, named, exchanged, compared, sold, stored, etc (ROBBINS, 1932). The rules that produce these games, more often than not, are kept invisible or they go by unnoticed, as they are perceived as natural laws for example: supply and demand for the classical economics where they are independent of a political artifice that defines its ordering rules. It seems that within what Cassidy (2011, cap.8) calls utopian economics, a set of natural rules able to be expressed in its perfect identity and recursion of mathematical models can resume and desidentify the economical operation from its social dependencies. The concept of scarcity becomes detached from its emotional and political surroundings, and the figure of a rational market, able to calculate the movements of supply and demand, can regulate itself without any interference. Marx (1980) linked the concept of value to a dual aspect of merchandise: its use value and its trade value. Use value is characterized by an individual relationship between a subject and an object. As for example, the sentimental value that we confer to an old object and cannot be priced, in other words, it cannot be negotiated in the market and continuum to mark a trade of equivalences. This double life of the merchandise, so to speak, with a singular value that ultimately cannot be particularized, i.e., universalized, is common in the modern thinking, given the influence of Christianity and the formalization of Hegelian thought. The modernity, by the invention of the universal extension rationality, produced objectives and stable trade systems: a structure of the spirit, as it were. It was the same with the birth of linguistics with Saussure (2000), analyzing language as a system of signs. We must to keep in mind that Saussures model is also characterized by a dual life, where the signifier corresponds to its singular and psychological term, and the signified to its structural and universal relation of association, identity, opposition and privation in relation relatively stable to other signs. Also Darwin to insist in the amplitude of this structural modern form has imagined an impersonal system, a natural law, also stable, capable to explain the evolution of species by the usual structural elements of modernity. Those elements correspond to the particularity of the species that were direct related to the singular of a mutation form, where the external mechanism (universal) of selection could promote new particular specie (FODOR & PIATTELLI-PALMARINI, 2011). The point that I would like to stress is that in modernity, since the invention of Christianity as shown by Badiou (2003), arises a very well defined architecture, which separates the particular from the singular where the particular is an element that is articulated with a whole: the universal

in which we can execute identitarian operations of rational equivalences and trade, i.e., that can be universally explained, and take places in series and extrapolations. The singular is the remaining of this total equivalence equation. The accursed share, the outlaw, as it were, which refuses to make sense and is left out of the rational explanation, what is not included in the series, and only appears in form of anguish: the suffering without name - or the ecstasy: the pleasure that can not be communed. The concept of value, if seem as a product of this architecture, may be understood, as this particular form of abstraction, where a trade association is affirmed by its identitarian value within a group. It lacks of what is scarce, and to be scarce it is necessary to have the possibility of been represented, pointing it as singular, but that however, still belongs to the series of the particulars. Summarizing: the scarce has a price, while the singular has only its experiencing - the sensorial experience that it provides. This representation is only possible as recognition of something shared, a code that demands an environment, and a reflectivity, where the meaning of scarcity is acknowledgeable by a socius to be able to trade it for other particularities that supposedly are equivalents to it. Therefore, the concept of value implies in general equivalents, in supposedly universal formulas that can give flow to sensitive experiences disguised in particulars forms. Nevertheless, we shall not forget that value is dependently constructed of its surrounding, and the functional game of demand and supply works indeed to dynamize a movement. In last instance, this movement surges from the recognition of what can, conveniently, be called social, and not necessarily is rational, but on the contrary, produces the concept of rationality itself. Value can then be understood as the process of making something scarce even more scarce understanding that the concept of scarcity demands a surrounding - a universal -, a game that defines the operations of rationality. This game, however, cannot be understood within the categories that it proposes. The rationality, as developed in the occident intend to be a self-sufficient model of organization, a metalanguage able to talk and subsume the Other. What has to be highlighted is that the concept of information is operated in the same register of the concept of value. In other word, it is produced by the articulation of the same primordial architecture that characterizes the western world. Information science reached a scientific status in the 50s, right after the Second War, with the rising of informational objects that needed to be managed, classified, and cataloged to attend user necessities for more precise information that could improve the quality of decision strategies (SARACEVIC, 1996). The concept of information surged as an object of scientific work with Shannom and Wivers electrical signs communication theory, and it was criticized in a very striking way in the last decades. For Le Coadic (2004) information is the registered knowledge (recorded) under a written form (printed or numerical), oral

or audiovisual. While for Kuhlen (1999), it is the part of knowledge relevant to solve a problem. In both cases, it goes from an electrical pulse transmission model (typical of engineering problems) to a structural solution, where information is associated to the concept of a signifier linked to a signified. That is to say: a part of a structured whole, according to a privileged way of occidental organization, conjugating the universal, the particular and the singular. Therefore, we can deduce the kinship between concept of value and concept of information. Both have as prerequisite the establishment of what Baudrillard (2006) calls ambience - or its aptitude to relate in a articulated group, its imperative condition of particularity. What is singular, that does not relate with a rational group, cannot be computed into the value equations, cannot even acquire the status of information, even if it is vital. We do know that life cannot be simplified in what we can trade, compute and commercialize the economic and informational game.

Information flow and economics of attention

Digital convergence or the conversion of atoms into bits, changed the rules that used to guide the economic game that has been practiced during the last three hundred years since the Industrial Revolution (ANDERSON, 2009). Bits, as we know, can be duplicated, transferred, and stored without suffering in the process or becoming scarcer. The doubled is identical to the original. There isnt corruption and degeneration, nor difference between origin and copy. The whole economic game assembled in the industrial era was based on the difference between original and copy, on the capacity to generate copies that only affirmed to be copies or, on the assertion of the originality of the source (BAUDRILLARD, 2002), on the capacity of replicating, and in its failure as well. The scarcity was possible because it was a rare particular but, not singular. In the beginning of modernity, a centralized institution, a public or private organization, could offer a seal of authenticity among the copies, and could lead to the imperfect copies and exclude them, according to an order established as being legitimate. This legitimate law was written somewhere, and ultimately was able to distinguish the difference or levels of difference between copy and original. The model, invariably written, was taken as parameter to tell apart right and wrong, beautiful and ugly, perfect (worthy) copy and cheap and disposable copy, between faithful translation and its contemptible caricature. In all the cases, however, the law operated in a way to prevent against bad copies, and knowledge was restrict to the masters and sages and broadcast at universities and authorized books (FOUCAULT, 1977). Computers and its binary alphabet, as we know, shuffled all of this - as they use the same

way to represent all the laws that allows the distinction between bad copy and good copies. For computers there are only good copies, which can be computed, and travel across from computer to computer. Otherwise, there is no deal, and the bad copy the singular as it were, simply will not flow in the game. It is not even acknowledge as a bad copy. This linguistic promiscuity of computers, so to speak, has questioned the industrial forms of distinction between good copies and bad copies. With the predominance of the digital forms of representation, the business model of modern industries collapsed, for the reason that its mechanism of scarcity control trade flow regulation was knocked down in its logical form. The definition of what is valuable, i.e., what is scarce, and therefore, what can be regulated within an economic mechanism, changed its status. And the scarcity which still streamlines the economic gears moved, in the digital world, to what remains scarce, that can not be copied, duplicated, reversible, and is still perishable: peoples body and its relationship with time. Nobody can stop the time, prevent people from aging, nor stop the days to pass by. Time, thus, becomes the most valuable good, as it is still, as far as we know, irreversible, and cannot be stored, traded, purchased or sold. Time is the singular element that even commodified and universalized remains as the most radical particular. Attention, therefore, is the most evident and most valuable attribute of human relation with time, since, within limited time, we can enjoy everything, temporarily and partially, even the most abundant turning them temporary. Scarcity that was before brokered by the impossibility of law is now brokered by the impossibility of time (LANHAM, 2006). If during Industrial Revolution the products would turn scarce by its materiality, by its infidelity between copy and original, during the Digital Revolution, they turn scarce by its excess, i.e., for the reason that we cannot consume all of them at once. Note, however, that there is still a law for the digital logic not that one that allowed circulation of something that had a seal of quality given guarantee of the good copy, but a law that now allows all kinds of circulations, trades, and permutes. The law that turns possible everything that is digital and able to be codified according to the universal machine. This change in the status of scarcity, from the irreversibility of the singular to the particularity of the digital, and finally, from lackness to excess can be illustrated by the data pointing to the duplication of worlds data storage every two years. In 2011 alone we will produce world wide 1,8 zettabytes (or 1.8 trillions of gigabytes) of data (IDC, 2011). It is not only the huge amount of data that is been storage, but its decreasing periodicity, in real time, in flux which continuously modifies its signification, its effectiveness to produce critical decisions, i.e., value adding. The concept of information and value finally collapsed since scarcity is now from the order of meaning, which can be found if the structure that characterizes information is obeyed. In a domain that is

characterized by its constant flux of information that is not distinguished as meaning, value become possible once it is found in the continuum of time that scarce configuration that makes enables significance. The economics of attention is the comprehension of this value dynamic, in which attention or the capacity to indicate significance to a nonsense flow of data can be acknowledge as scarce: a particular that gets closer as much as it is possible to the singular - becoming rare. Once the economic engine faces the irreversibility of time and to its relation with the perishable body, the ordered system loses its purpose to stop circulation. It means that, in the economics of attention the produced value, or found, or translated has ephemeral, transitory and circulatory duration. It is not expected to remain or to explain its conditions in relation to the game. It is not as gold, for example, or like oil, which can be commoditized, purchased, sold and storage, in a future period. Value, within the economics of attention is perishable; it can stray if not used in the right time. It disappears in the myriad of data flow. It is a moment of meaning attributable to a stream of meaningless data. However, this fleeting moment, where meaning is produced, has no autonomous significance. They are moments that can be panned in real time. They are transitory and artificial meaning, that have to be consumed while fresh as it has brief, scarce and non-explainable life and thus valuable according to economics principles. Its value is due to its effectiveness and not its explicative power which remains suspended in the continuous flow of data.

Mining data flow

Since its beginning, in its modern phase, when the Dutch traders made feasible expeditions to the east, dividing the cost of its contract in shares, the stock market depends viscerally on accurate information about the status of its enterprise (PILAGALO, 2009). If the information about the enterprise were good the shares rose, otherwise it would go down. The shares of an enterprise turn out to be thus, a good deal if bought at a low price, in relation to the expectative to be valorized in the future - which can happed or not it is a risk. The stock exchange, perhaps, more than any other domain, clarifies the acute, impersonal, and immediate relationship between information and value. This dynamic of share's prices is sensible, however, not only to factual information, but expectations, rumors, and moods; creating a growing demand about accurate information that can influence markets and change the status of shares price. The sensibility of this dynamic implicates in profits and loss, therefore, rapidly the financial market became addict to any information that can change its status to the point of loosing its

rationality. In the frantic search for critical information, the speed of information flow has become a differentiating factor in stock trading. The stock market began to demand and boost the development of information and communication technologies, abducting and inducing the development of differentials that could improve the quality of financial management decisions. Communication technologies, as the telegraph and telephone in the 20 th Century, radicalized the dynamic flow of financial information and assigned the adjective online to the market. The trivialization of the Internet in the 21 st Century, globalized capital flows, which became to flow in a deterritorialized way, from one continent to another in real time, to ordinary users - and not only big banks and investment funds, depressing to the already battered rationality of financial markets in rubble and ashes on the floor of cyberspace. The logic of real time information, autonomous in relation to means and ends, has got to be the pacesetter of stock market operations, and the index that before would shift correlated to public activities began to fluctuate way beyond merely human watching. The indexes proliferated so much that, in order to be intelligible, turned to be indexes of indexes. According to Bovespas finance dictionary, the index points to a [..] relationship between measurement or gradation values, which indicates the average change in prices of a set of goods, for a period taken as reference [...] (BOVESPA, 2009). Extensively used in finance and economics, the production of reliable indexes is today one of the main tools to aid decision-making in virtually all levels of contemporary society. Trade systems (TS) are automated systems for locating appropriate times to maximize the results of a financial transaction of purchase and sale, which are indicated in form of index. Currently, these systems are used on a large scale by great players of financial markets as the banks and investment funds are accused, by contrast, to increase the chances of major crises in the financial market (PATTERSON, 2010). These systems, for the most part, use the technical analysis or quantitative approach, to try to find the best time of purchase and sale of financial assets. They transform the status of the market in risk indexes, as if there was a gradation between the occurrence of events likely to be invented in modern times supported by the advent of calculus and statistics. The premise of technical analysis is that asset prices follow patterns and trends which can be identified according to their history, the premise of its founder Charles Henry Dow. Unlike fundamentalist analysis, which is concerned with the economics fundamentals that would support a decision on buying or selling (MATSUURA, 2007). Technical analysis believes that all information, relevant to this decision are already enclosed. In other words, it operates the ideology of the continuum, as Turings machine and complexity science also do. For example, while a fundamentalist annalist will search for a companys

economical and financial information in its own context (for ex. growth rate, profitability and debt). The technical analyst searches, upon the graphical behavior of the assets of the company during time, patterns that may indicate good marks for buying and selling. Reality, as a system of symbols of narrative explanation of the world does not matter. The obtained results, turn into, when successful, rise of capital. Knowledge as we understood it in modern age, as an explicative causality, is not more important than the objective result of transactions. What we would like to stress is that in the technical analysis, the external content, rumors, news and official market information are submitted by the graphic movement of the assets. In other words, in the technical analysis the value of the assets and its history already holds all the external influence of the market. Thus, the study of the historical series of financial assets would be enough to find the best opportunities for buying and selling. Therefore, the technical analysis makes extensive use of statistical tools, simulations, data mining and others computational techniques for detecting patterns. In fact, the most striking point is that, while fundamentalist analysis looks for significant reasons or symbolic explanations sort of cause and effect for the movement of financial assets, technical analysis tries to detect patterns that have no commitment to a rational explanation of the world. So, it is not necessary or even desirable, a traditional explanation of the financial world's movement as long as they keep working. The information disembodies from meaning to bind with value, and define itself by a scarce particularity. This shift of rationality, from causality to complexity, implies the abdication world explanations in favor of its operation, currently transforming the rationality of financial market transactions as the predominance of transactions derived from models based on technical analysis, in computational problems or, more precisely, a computational race and optimization mathematical models nondeterministic and divorced from human significations. Definitely, a work for the rationality of the machines, which dispenses human criteria, i.e., as the financial market gets more automated more it is hard to be understood by men. It gets more unpredictable, incomprehensible, esoteric and dangerous as shown by the recent crises in the financial system.

The experiment As we have seen in the anterior sections, the forms of contemporary representation converge to the logic of financial ratios, in real time, senseless and autonomous. The flow of financial assets may be treated in its turn as a computational problem, which can be tracked and monitored, creating value at specific times, where the dynamics of data streams converge towards the ephemeral moments of sense moments of attention, or more precisely, where attention is a gap in value generation. Certain information has value in a given time and the attention to this setting can be measured. The question we ask, and supports the experiment is How value is attention? We know that this question involves the consideration of the double life of the commodity in its value of exchange and use, its market value, and its subjective life. As a try to objectify the question, we turn to the financial market and its property to price not explicit features such as rumors, market moods, tensions, doubts, etc. Hidden information, which may not even be information in the strict sense, but are priced by the market. Once the information in its psychological life (so as use value), greatly hinders their objectification, we turn to the financial market and its ability to radical pricing, to quantify attention. Thus, we can say that the attention has objective value. We seek, therefore, to monitor the market and find special moments in time attention that are conducive to buying and selling financial assets. Attention, therefore, will be summed up in financial transactions occurring at any given time, and finally, will be priced objectively. Using this device, we can achieve measurable numbers on settings where the sense is abolished but the value is found at a time continuum. However, when we price attention in the financial market, more than move forward our research, we will produce a tool that can help the new and inexperienced investors, publishing the results in real time on social networks, drawing the attention of users, so to speak, for moments of possible value in a nonsense data stream. Perhaps this is in its pragmatic bias, the true benefit of the experiment, the Precog Finance Project, as we describe below.

Objectives To test predictions of the attention economy, seeking to objectify its empirical mechanisms and relate them to their theoretical aspects. To find objective numbers for the value of attention.

To provide small investors with a free automated tool to submit a lucrative strategy for buying and selling of financial assets in a short period.

To integrate this strategy to a social networking (twitter), capable of extending the dissemination of information in real time, about the best times to conduct financial transactions.

To improve the technique of data mining of financial assets through algorithms based on artificial intelligence (AI).

Benefits of the study Traditional forms of long-term investment (buy and hold), where an investor buys stock and not worry about the short-term variations, began to be questioned after the crisis of 2008, indicating a participation of investors focused on short transactions (day traders - operations on the same day) and medium term (swing traders - operations for up to four weeks). These transactions require from the investors more experience and time spent in monitoring and analysis of market trends, especially the short term, and these are usually activities carried out by professionals from major brokerage firms and banks. Non-professional investors, therefore, are more vulnerable to fluctuations in short and medium term and can not yet establish strategies to protect themselves from severe attacks, as the ones occurred in 2000, 2008 and 2011 - losing a large amount of resources and giving up to invest in financial market. They lack experience, knowledge and time devoted to market analysis, and information systems already used widely by major players in market as banks and investment funds - that can guide their financial decisions in turbulent movements of the market.

Methodology

Experienced investors are unanimous in stating that an investment strategy is critical, as much as its adherence and discipline. The basic idea is to contrast methods in a period of time, evaluate them, and finally offer the user, a consolidated strategy in a period. The system would be on the other hand constantly evaluating, consolidating and changing possible strategies, comparing them to find the most efficient at a certain stage in the market, which, ultimately, cannot be predicted, only evaluated.

This system in its preliminary format seeks for buying "waves" and selling "waves". A buying wave is a period where the system detects when the purchase of shares is positive, which can last from one week to several months (Illustration 1).

Illustration 1: Buying wave Suggestions for purchase are sent by email or twitter and must be purchased gradually until the wave of purchase reaches the end as the market progresses in its dynamics. A selling wave indicates the best times to sell the shares purchased in a wave of buying (Figure 2). A selling wave consists of various sales suggestions, which characterize the attention economy. In this model, the first moment of sale of a selling wave, sells all shares purchased for a lower price and at an earlier time. Thus, we minimize the risk of losing a wave of selling. It can wait longer to sell the shares purchased, but in this model, we chose to minimize the risks involved. The result obtained is the average difference obtained between a wave of buying and the first sell in a wave of selling.

Illustration 2: Selling wave According to statistics data obtained through monitoring, several waves have occurred over a year and for this reason, the system needs a minimum of one year's operation to obtain concrete rewards.

Results Preliminary results were obtained by applying, in 2010, an provisional algorithm of data collected mining on the following sites: BMFBOVESPA and yahoo / finance 2, as shown in Table 1. The complete records of buying and selling time can be found at http://twitter.com/ #! / Mymarx. Assets PETR4 VALE5 CSNA3 TAMM4 GOLL4 TCSL4 OGXP3 HETA4 Precog ( annual %, January 2010 January 2011) 37.26 46.16 39.85 38.57 58.71 52.09 49.99 56.21 21 34 11 4 20 0 0 Bovespa (% anual, January 2010 2011) -25

2 These data were obtained by periodically collecting the shares of stock by automated reading of BMFBOVESPA sites and Yahoo / Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com). Data were mined by an algorithm that is still in beta testing and will be described in detail in future work.

EMBR3

38.31

30

MILK11 39.76 -400 Table 1: Average profit of the best actions monitored (45.69% in 2010 compared with the 3% Bovespa index ) Conclusions and future research

Data mining serves as financial experiment to test the main concepts of the attention economy, since it relates to three key aspects of which are characterized by: i) presentation of the concept of value as an event in time; ii) which is not committed to a rational explanation of it (the event), and iii) has a fleeting, evanescent character, where the value does not become a commodity. The financial market offers a good environment for studying the economics of attention because it objectively prices attention, a variable difficult to be delimited in other areas of research because of its subjective nature. Future research may oppose other forms of monitoring, other "assets" that are non-financial, to be studied in the context of an attention economy.

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