Commodities Evening Update

Friday | August 30, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Friday | August 30, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis German Retail Sales declined around 1.4 percent in month of July. UKs Nationwide HPI was at 0.6 percent in the current month. European Unemployment Rate was at 12.1 percent in last month. European equities are trading lower today on the back of unfavorable economic data from the region. Asian markets ended on a mixed note and US trading on a flat note. UKs Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) was at 0.6 percent in August from 0.9 percent in July. Net Lending to Individuals was at 1.3 billion Pounds in July as compared to 1.4 billion Pounds in June. German Retail Sales declined around 1.4 percent in July as against a fall of 0.8 percent in June. Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate rose to 12.1 percent in Q2 of 2013 from 11.9 percent in Q1 of 2013. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash Estimate fell to 1.3 percent in August with respect to 1.6 percent in July. European Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 12.1 percent in the month of July. Spot gold prices declined around 0.9 percent today on the back of weak global market sentiments. However, sharp downside in prices was capped as result of rise in SPDR gold holdings coupled with weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX). In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee exerted downside in prices on the MCX. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in base metals complex, Spot silver prices fell around 0.8 percent today. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. On the domestic bourses, appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure on prices. The base metals group was trading on a negative note today on the back of unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone. Further, weak global market sentiments coupled with mixed LME inventories scenario exerted downside pressure on prices. However sharp decline was cushioned due to weakness in the DX. LME Copper prices slipped around 0.4 percent as a result of rise in LME Copper inventories around 1.8 percent which stood at 588,000 tonnes. Further, weak market sentiments along with unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone exerted downside pressure on prices. Appreciation in the Rupee acted as a negative factor for prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices traded on a negative note and fell around 0.9 percent today on account of ease on Syria concerns after UKs Parliament voted against military attacks. Further, weak global market sentiments exerted downside pressure on prices which led to expectations of decline in demand for the fuel. However, sharp downside was prevented due to weakness in the DX. In the Indian markets, crude oil prices declined on the back of appreciation in the Rupee. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 30 August 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5407.45 18424.72 13573.24 1918.91 16882.12

5493.30 18679.26 13615.98 1926.37 16886.75

5360.20 18272.76 13335.91 1910.37 16718.54

5471.80 18619.72 13388.86 1926.36 16718.54

1.16 1.19 -0.53 0.99 -0.45

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 30 August 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

82.03 1.324 67.08

82.07 1.3254 67.43

81.93 1.3221 65.97

82.01 1.3238 66.27

-0.04 -0.02 -0.42

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 30 August 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Oct13 MCX Gold Oct13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Oct 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Sep 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Aug13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Aug13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Aug13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Aug13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1407.84 1407.20 33648.00 23.84 0.23775 55550 108.17 114.20 7351 7147.00 489.00 1930.00 128.85 2195 148.65 14086 940.10 1837.00 121.15

1410.91 1409.80 33648.0 23.98 0.24015 55550 108.25 115.32 7351 7200.75 489.90 1933.00 128.90 2197 148.70 14086 944.40 1837.50 121.50

1392.14 1392.30 32555.0 23.41 0.23445 53411 106.75 113.63 7161 7122.50 473.40 1907.00 124.60 2158 143.30 13828 916.40 1809.00 117.20

1395.36 1393.80 32716.00 23.63 0.23615 53720 107.88 115.16 7195 7132.25 474.65 1907.50 124.80 2161 143.75 13840 922.50 1814.50 117.60

-0.87 -1.35 -2.78 -0.84 -1.97 -3.28 -0.85 0.00 -3.51 -0.41 -2.52 -1.42 -3.18 -1.55 -3.52 -1.88 -2.98 -1.18 -3.49

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Friday | August 30, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of weak global market sentiments. Further, downside in prices will be seen as a result of estimates of rise in US Consumer Sentiments data showing signs of economic growth which will lead to concerns of QE tapering from the Federal Reserve. This factor will lead to stronger DX and exert downside pressure on dollar denominated commodities.

Technical Outook for evening session 30 August 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)

Commodity Gold Oct'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Sep13 Nymex Crude Oil Oct13 Natural Gas Aug13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc Aug13 Lead Aug13 Aluminum Aug13 Nickel Aug13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2

32050 1385 52738 23.16 7056 106.2 236 7053 479.3 124.6 140.7 117.8 911

32580 1392 53301 23.35 7152 107 239.1 7100 483.5 125.8 142.1 118.9 921

32756 1395.5 53825 23.64 7200 107.76 242.1 7130 486 126.25 143.1 119.6 931.3

33180 1409 54700 23.98 7310 108.6 247 7200 493.6 127.9 145.9 121 947

33550 1417 55450 24.3 7430 109.6 251 7250 500 129.5 148.4 123 957

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Household Spending y/y National Core CPI y/y Tokyo Core CPI y/y FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Prelim Industrial Production m/m German Retail Sales m/m Nationwide HPI m/m Net Lending to Individuals m/m CPI Flash Estimate y/y Unemployment Rate Core PCE Price Index m/m Personal Spending m/m FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Chicago PMI Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Japan Japan Japan US Japan Euro UK UK Euro Euro US US US US US

5:00am 5:00am 5:00am 5:15am 5:20am 11:30am 11:30am 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 7:15pm 7:25pm

0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 3.2% -1.4% 0.6% 1.3B 1.3% -12.1% -

0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 3.7% 0.5% 0.6% 1.7B 1.4% 12.1% 0.2% 0.3% 53.2 81.2

-0.4% 0.4% 0.3% -3.1% -1.5% 0.8% 1.5B 1.6% 12.1% 0.2% 0.5% 52.3 80.0

Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium