Probabilities

Recall that probabilities is a model that assigns to each event A a number, P (A), describing the likelihood of this event to occur.

Recall, further, that an event is just a list of things that can happen outcomes.

The collection of all possible outcomes (the biggest event) is called the sample space, often denoted by .

Probabilities must form a consistent model, as described in the following requirements:

1. For every event A, 0 P (A) 1.

2. For the sample space (biggest event) , P () = 1.

3. For disjoint (mutually exclusive) events A1, A2, . . . , ... P ( n i=1 Ai ) =

n

P ( Ai )
i=1

for every n = 1, 2, . . . , .

Venn Diagrams

As a visual aid, interpret probabilities as areas. Properties of Probabilities

The probability of the complement of an event: P ( Ac ) = 1 P ( A )

The probability of the union of two events (or avoiding double counting) P ( A 1 A2 ) = P ( A 1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( A1 A 2 )

More on avoiding double counting (or InclusionExclusion Formula) P ( A1 A 2 A 3 ) = P ( A1 ) + P ( A 2 ) + P ( A 3 ) P (A1 A2) P (A1 A3) P (A2 A3) + P ( A1 A 2 A 3 ) .

Example The three major options on a certain type of a new car are 6-speed transmission (Option I), a power sunroof (Option II) and DVD navigation with GPS (Option III). If of all purchasers 70% request Option I 80% request Option II 75% request Option III 65% request Options I and II 55% request Options I and III 60% request Options II and III 50% request Options I, II and III what is the proportion of all purchasers that request at least one of the options?

Conditional probability

Recall that, if A and B are two events then the conditional probability of A given B is denoted by P (A|B ) and dened by P (A B ) P ( A| B ) = , P (B ) provided P (B ) > 0.

If P (B ) = 0, then the conditional probability of A given B is not dened.

However: in computations any number can be legitimately used as the conditional probability of A given B if P (B ) = 0.

Multiplication rule

Directly from the denition of conditional probability P (A B ) = P (B )P (A |B ) . This multiplication rule has a very useful extension to more than 2 events, that is also called the chain rule.

Let A1, A2, . . . , An be arbitrary events. Then P (A1 A2 . . . An1 An) = P (A1)P (A2|A1)P (A3|A1 A2) . . . . . . P (An|A1 A2 . . . An1) .

Often one replaces the intersection sign with a comma in conditions, i.e. uses P (A|B, C ) instead of P (A|B C ). Then the general chain rule for probabilities looks like P (A1 A2 . . . An1 An) = P (A1)P (A2|A1)P (A3|A1, A2) . . . . . . P (An|A1, A2, . . . , An1) .

Example Two mountain resorts S and T are connected by a direct road, and a more circuitous route going through a third resort U .

In the winter the roads are sometimes closed due to snow and ice. Suppose A1, A2 and A3 are, respectively, the events that roads ST , SU and T U are open on a typical winter day.

We know from the past years that P (A1) = .4, P (A3|A2) = .8, P (A2) = .75, P (A1|A2, A3) = .5.

What is the probability that on a typical winter day a traveller will be able to get from S to T ?