Probability Tables

STA 281 Spring 2007

Introduction

We have previously talked about probability using mathematical notation such as P (A), P (A B ), P (A B c ) and so on. We derived several theorems to describe how these probabilities relate to each other, such as P (Ac ) = 1 P (A), or P (A B ) = P (A) + P (B ) P (A B ). Even with two events, some probabilities can be dicult to express. Our goal in this handout will be to introduce probability tables, which I hope will provide an intuitive way of keeping track of probabilities, one that is easier to work with than mathematical notation or Venn diagrams. We will primarily focus on tables to summarize two events, although later we will consider three events. Suppose we have two events A and B . The core of a probability table looks like A B Bc There are 4 cells in this table, representing the four possible ways A and B may occur (both occur, A occurs but B does not, B occurs but A does not, or neither occur). In mathematical notation, these four outcomes are A B , A B c , Ac B , and Ac B c . Notice that these four events are disjoint, meaning that no outcome is in multiple cells. This may be seen by examing the four cells two at a time. For example, Ac B and Ac B c are disjoint. The rst event Ac B only involves outcomes from B , while the second event Ac B c only involves outcomes from B c . No outcome is in both B and B c , so the events are disjoint. Another thing to notice is that together the four events form the entire sample space. Every outcome must be in either A or Ac . Every outcome must be in either B or B c . The four cells of the table describe the four combinations resulting from crossing in or out of A with in or out of B. Since the events are disjoint, we can add the probabilities of the cells together. For example, suppose the probability table was A 0.25 0.10 Ac 0.35 0.30 B c ) = 0.10, and P (Ac Bc) = Ac

B Bc This would indicate P (A 0.30. B ) = 0.25, P (Ac

B ) = 0.35, P (A

What is the probability exactly one of the events occur? To solve this, you can look at the four cells of the probability table, nd which of the cells have exactly one event occuring, and add the probabilities of those cells. The cell A B should not be included, because both events occur, not exactly one. The cells A B c and Ac B should both be included since exactly one event does occur, while the cell Ac B c should be excluded since neither event occurs. We add the probabilities of the cells included in exactly one event occurs to nd the probability that exactly one event occurs to be 0.35 + 0.10 = 0.45. If we wanted to nd the probability at least one of the events occurs, we would include the cells A B , A B c , and Ac B , to nd the probability at least one event occurs to be 0.25 + 0.35 + 0.10 = 0.7. Similarly, the problem that at most one of the events occur is 0.35 + 0.10 + 0.30 = 0.75. If you are given probabilities in the four cells of the table, you are able to nd the probabilities of any combination of the two events using this method. The four cells are the core of the probability table, although we typically extend the table to include margins. Suppose we just wanted the probability A occurs. Looking at the table, A occurs for the cells A B and A B c . In the example, P (A) = 0.25 + 0.10 = 0.35. In fact, the result P (A) = P (A B ) + P (A Bc)

is called the Law of Total Probability. In table form, it amounts to you can add across the rows or the columns. For example P (B ) = 0.25 + 0.35 = 0.60. Adding the margins to the table, we write A 0.25 0.10 0.35 Ac 0.35 0.30 0.65

B Bc

0.60 0.40 1.00

The 1.00 appears since the overall probability of the sample space is 1. This reects both that the four cells compose the sample space and the complement rule P (A) + P (Ac ) = P (B ) + P (B c ) = 1.

2
2.1

Worked Examples
Morning and Afternoon newspapers

Suppose in your city there is a morning and afternoon editions of the newspaper. Suppose that 60% of the people receive the morning paper, 30% receive the afternoon paper, and 10% receive both. Construct a probability table with this information. We begin by writing out the events, which in this problem are receive a morning paper or receive an afternoon paper. Calling these events M and A, we have the table M A Ac 1.00 Mc

Now we ll in the probabilities we are given. The statement 60% receive the morning paper doesnt say anything about the afternoon paper. Those 60% involve people who receive the afternoon paper and people who do not receive the afternoon paper. It says what it says, that 60% receive the morning paper. It should go in the margin. Similarly, the 30% that receive a afternoon paper goes in the margin. The 10% that receive both, however, is one of the four core cells of the table. Placing the given information in the table, we have M 0.10 0.60 Mc 0.30 1.00

A Ac

At this point, we can just use arithmetic to ll in the remainder of the table. If P (A) = 0.30, then P (Ac ) = 0.7. Similarly, P (M c ) = 0.4. We are just using the fact that probabilities sum across the rows and columns of the table, which we previously showed. This gets us to M 0.10 0.60 Mc 0.30 0.70 1.00

A Ac

0.40

How do nd the probabilities of the remainder of the outcomes? We can use the table as a guide to our arithmetic. What is P (A M c ), the probability of receive a morning paper but not an afternoon paper? We know the probability of receiving a morning paper is 60%. Since we can add across the columns of the table (the Law of Total Probability), we know P (M ) = P (M A) + P (M Ac ), and thus 0.60 = 0.10 + P (M Ac ) and P (M Ac ) = 0.5. By similar reasoning, we can ll in the rest of the table. M 0.10 0.50 0.60 Mc 0.20 0.20 0.40

A Ac

0.30 0.70 1.00

From this table, we can derive any probability involving the 2 events. The probability an individual receives at least one paper is 0.10 + 0.20 + 0.50 = 0.80. The probability an individual receives at most one paper is 0.20 + 0.50 + 0.20 = 0.90. The probability an individual receives exactly one paper is 0.20 + 0.50 = 0.70.

2.2

Pet Food and Accessories

Sometimes you have to do a little more than adding or subtracting across the rows and columns to complete the probability table. Suppose that customers at a pet store can buy food or accessories for their pet (accessories are dened here as anything that isnt food). Suppose that 90% of visitors

to the store buy at least one of food or accessories, 40% buy exactly one of food or accessories, and 10% buy food but do not buy accessories. Writing out the probability table, only the information that 10% buy food but do not buy accessories allows us to directly ll in a table entry. F A Ac 0.10 1.00 The information that 40% buy exactly one of food or accessories does not directly provide us with a cell of the table, but we can use this information to derive a cell value. The event exactly one corresponds to the cells F Ac and F c A. The rst of these cells is known to be 0.10, and the sum of these cells is 0.40. Thus, P (F c A) = 0.30. F A Ac 0.10 1.00 Finally, we know that 90% buy at least one of the products. You could get another cell in the table through either of two methods. First you could observe that at least one includes the two cells already derived (the 0.10 and 0.30 cells) and the cell for both (F A). Since those three cells together total 0.9, P (F A) = 0.50. An alternative solution is to observe the event at least one is the complement of the event none, which would allow you to determine P (F c Ac ) = 1 0.9 = 0.10. In either case, you derive the complete table F 0.50 0.10 0.60 Fc 0.30 0.10 0.40 Fc 0.30 Fc

A Ac

0.80 0.20 1.00

As with any other probability table, you can derive any probability involving the events F and A with this table. For example, the probability a customer buys at most one of the products is 0.50.

Sample Questions

Example A quiz contains two questions. 90% of students get the rst question correct, 5% get neither question correct, and 50% get both questions correct. Construct a probability table and nd the probability that a randomly selected student a) does not get the rst question correct. b) gets only the rst question correct. 4

c) gets exactly one of the questions correct. d) gets the second question correct. e) gets at least one of the questions correct. Example Suppose the probability a random person buys a TV is 0.6, the probability they buy a VCR is 0.3, and the probability they buy neither is 0.2. Construct a probability table and nd a) the probability they dont buy a TV. b) the probability they buy both a TV and a VCR. c) the probability they buy at least one. d) the probability they buy exactly one. Example A small aviation company has 2 planes, one large and one small. Each weekend they attempt to rent the planes. 60% of the time they are able to rent both planes and 20% of the time they rent neither of the planes. They rent the large plane 70% of the time. a) Construct a probability table. b) What is the probability they do not rent the large plane? c) What is the probability they rent the small plane? d) What is the probability they rent exactly one of the planes? Example Suppose that 90% of all households purchase at most one of a new car or a new house, 15% purchase a new house, and 20% purchase a new car. a) Construct a probability table. b) What is the probability a household purchases a new car but not a new house? c) What is the probability a household purchases neither? d) What is the probability a household purchases at least one of a car or house?

Solutions to Sample Problems

Two Quiz Questions Q1 0.50 0.40 0.90 Q1c 0.05 0.05 0.10

Q2 Q2c

0.55 0.45 1.00

a) does not get the rst question correct. 0.10 b) gets only the rst question correct. 0.40 c) gets exactly one of the questions correct. 0.40 + 0.05 = 0.45 d) gets the second question correct. 0.55 e) gets at least one of the questions correct. 0.50 + 0.40 + 0.05 = 0.95

TV, VCR TV 0.10 0.50 0.60 TV c 0.20 0.20 0.40

V CR V CRc

0.30 0.70 1.00

a) The probability they dont buy a TV. 0.40 b) The probability they buy both a TV and a VCR. 0.10 c) The probability they buy at least one. 0.10 + 0.50 + 0.20 = 0.80 d) The probability they buy exactly one. 0.50 + 0.20 = 0.70 Plane Rentals L 0.60 0.10 0.70 Lc 0.10 0.20 0.30

S Sc

0.70 0.30 1.00

b) What is the probability they do not rent the large plane? 0.30 c) What is the probability they rent the small plane? 0.70 d) What is the probability they rent exactly one of the planes? 0.10 + 0.10 = 0.20 House, Car C 0.10 0.10 0.20 Cc 0.05 0.75 0.80

H Hc

0.15 0.85 1.00

b) What is the probability a household purchases a new car but not a new house? 0.10 c) What is the probability a household purchases neither? 0.75 d) What is the probability a household purchases at least one of a car or house? 0.25