Bloomberg Government Study

Compressed Natural Gas: America's Alternative to Gasoline?

CNG Still Decades From Shrinking Oil Demand

Part 2 of 2

BY ROB BARNETT
Energy Analyst Editor S ANFORD REB ACK Director, Energy
DEC. 7, 2012

To contact the author, e-mail: rbarnett12@bloomberg.net

Copyright 2012, Bloomberg L.P .

www.bgov.com

FOREWORD
Oil's grip on the transportation sector is apparent; it accounts for more than 90 percent of the fuel consumed by cars, trucks and airplanes. This near-monopoly, combined with oil prices that are about five times higher than the average price recorded during the 1990s, has generated interest in finding alternative ways to fuel transportation. Transportation Energy Use Within the U.S.
Biomass 4% Electricity 0.2%

Natural Gas 3%

All Other Transport 42% Light Duty Vehicles 58% Oil 93%

Supply
* Includes freight trucking, rail, air, etc. Source: Energy Information Administration and Bloomberg Government

Demand

Bloomberg Government has explored the role that passenger compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles could play in displacing oil as a transportation fuel. Light-duty vehicles, essentially passenger cars, sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks and vans, consume about 60 percent of the energy used for transportation. A growing chorus of industry officials and members of Congress has been advocating the use of CNG for passenger vehicles (and liquefied natural gas for trucking) as an alternative to oil. This is a two-part series: Hurdles to Adoption (Part 1) This report assesses the economics of CNG cars and light trucks compared with conventional gasoline vehicles. It also explores the infrastructure requirements of CNG adoption. Impact on Gasoline Demand (Part 2) The report examines the potential market size for passenger CNG vehicles and assesses the impact that CNG vehicles could have on gasoline demand.

2 BGOV Study Compressed Natural Gas: Impact on Gasoline Demand

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section Page

Foreword ................................................................................................................ 2 Executive Summary ............................................................................................... 4 Section 1: Lessons Learned from Hybrid Vehicles ............................................. 5 Section 2: What If CNG Vehicles Were Twice as Successful as Hybrids? ........ 7 Section 3: CNG Vehicle Impact on Gasoline Demand ......................................... 8 Thinking About Transportation in Generational Terms ...................................... 9 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 11 About the Analyst ................................................................................................ 11 Appendix: Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet Model Documentation .............................. 12 Endnotes .............................................................................................................. 23

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
BACKGROUND
Compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles have the potential to reduce U.S. gasoline demand and greenhouse gas emissions.

Compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles probably won't significantly decrease U.S. oil demand for decades. Even if CNG vehicles prove more popular than hybrids, there are almost 250 million cars and light trucks on the road in the U.S., and it takes many years to turn over the existing vehicle stock. This Bloomberg Government Study finds: If CNG vehicles were to climb to 5 percent of new car sales by 2025 an optimistic scenario gasoline demand would be reduced only by about 1.5 percent in 2025 compared with what it otherwise would have been. Impact of CNG on Gasoline Demand
Million Barrels per Day History CAFE + RFS 10 9 CAFE Only BGOV "Bullish" CNG*

MARKET SHARE
It will probably take decades for CNG vehicles to gain even a modest foothold in the U.S. Hybrid vehicles, the best-selling alternative vehicle to date, have been on the market since 2000. They constituted only 2.3 percent of new cars and trucks sold in 2011.

IMPACT
Even if CNG vehicles were 5 percent of vehicles sales by 2025, demand for gasoline would be only about 1.5 percent lower that year than it otherwise would have been. Several years after 2025, the impact of CNG vehicles could be more substantial. CNG could displace up to 12 billion gallons of petroleum-based gasoline a year by 2035, assuming very optimistic sales projections.

8 7 6 5 4 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

* BGOV "Bullish CNG Scenario" includes meeting CAFE and RFS requirements Source: Bloomberg Government and EIA

After 2025, CNG's impact could be more pronounced; petroleum-based gasoline demand could fall by almost 775,000 barrels per day by 2035, a reduction of about 10 percent compared with current demand. A long-term commitment to CNG vehicles from policy makers and consumers would be required to significantly reduce U.S. dependence on gasoline and diesel fuel. This study, the second of two parts, assesses the market for CNG vehicles and estimates the potential impact on gasoline demand. To conduct this analysis, Bloomberg Government developed a consumer automobile fleet model that forecasts fuel demand based on a variety of assumptions.

4 BGOV Study Compressed Natural Gas: Impact on Gasoline Demand

SECTION 1: LESSONS LEARNED FROM HYBRID VEHICLES

Almost all vehicles sold in the U.S. are based on the same basic technology: the gasolinepowered internal combustion engine. With the exception of hybrid vehicles, new technologies and alternative fuels have had difficulty making inroads into the U.S. vehicle market. Hybrid vehicles have had an impressive run. From 2000 through 2011, hybrid vehicle sales grew by a compound annual growth rate of 36 percent.1 (See Figure 1.) The dip starting in 2008 corresponds to a drop in overall vehicle sales resulting from the great recession.2 Toyota has dominated the hybrid market. Including its Lexus luxury brand, Toyota cars and trucks accounted for 71 percent of the hybrids sold in the U.S. between 2000 and 2011.3 With more than a million sold during the past decade, the Toyota Prius has been the most successful hybrid vehicle.4 Honda and Ford finished a distant second and third in U.S. hybrid market share.5 Figure 1: U.S. Hybrid Vehicle Sales
Other Hybrids 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Toyota Prius

Source: Bloomberg Government and Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center

Despite having a phenomenal growth rate, hybrid vehicle sales peaked at only 2.8 percent of all cars and light trucks sold in 2009; they made up 2.3 percent of vehicles sales in 2011.6 Figure 2 displays the percentage of hybrid car sales and illustrates the difficulty of transforming the U.S. automotive sector. It can take years to scale new vehicle technology. Because hybrids, unlike CNG vehicles, take advantage of existing U.S. oil and gasoline refueling infrastructure, it seems unlikely that CNG vehicles could replicate hybrids' adoption rate.

5 BGOV Study Compressed Natural Gas: Impact on Gasoline Demand

Figure 2: U.S. Hybrid Vehicle Sales as a Percentage of Total Sales

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Bloomberg Government and Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center

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SECTION 2: WHAT IF CNG VEHICLES WERE TWICE AS SUCCESSFUL AS HYBRIDS?

Whether consumers will be tempted by CNG vehicles is far from certain. Even so, several manufacturers, including Honda and Chrysler, have placed bets that there will be consumer demand for CNG vehicles.7 Through September, Honda had sold only about 1,600 CNG-fueled Civics in 2012.8 Chrysler's 2013 CNG Ram pickup truck began rolling off the assembly line on October 30, 2012.9 The rate at which CNG vehicles have been purchased is similar to the adoption rate of hybrid vehicles in their early days. To estimate the degree to which the adoption of CNG vehicles could reduce U.S. gasoline demand, Bloomberg Government developed a "Bullish CNG Scenario" (Figure 3). Bloomberg Government's "Bullish CNG Scenario" assumes that CNG vehicles are about twice as successful in the next 10 years as hybrids have been during the past decade. The scenario assumes that by 2025 CNG vehicles constitute 5 percent of new car and light truck sales. This would mean about 800,000 CNG vehicles sold in 2025, or almost 3 times more than the number of hybrids sold in 2011. These figures are based on a variety of assumptions that were fed into Bloomberg Governments light-duty vehicle fleet model. (See Appendix on Page 12 for more details on model assumptions.) Figure 3: BGOV "Bullish CNG Scenario"
6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Bloomberg Government

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SECTION 3: CNG VEHICLE IMPACT ON GASOLINE DEMAND

U.S. petroleum-based gasoline demand probably peaked in 2005.10 Corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) requirements, the renewable fuel standard (RFS) and the possibility of alternatives such as CNG and electric vehicles point toward a long-term trend of declining petroleum-based gasoline demand. As illustrated in Figure 4, Bloomberg Government's light-duty vehicle fleet model projects that petroleum-based gasoline demand would decline by about 22 percent in 2025 compared with 2011 levels under the "Bullish CNG Scenario." The scenario also assumes that CAFE and RFS requirements are met. A previous Bloomberg Government Study, Fuel Economy Standards: Impact on Gasoline Demand, includes a more in-depth discussion of CAFE and RFS requirements. Figure 4: Impact on Petroleum-based Gasoline Demand Through 2025
Million Barrels per Day History 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970 CAFE Only CAFE + RFS BGOV "Bullish"CNG*Scneario"

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

* BGOV "Bullish CNG Scenario" Includes Meeting CAFE and RFS Requirements Note: About 10 percent of U.S. "gasoline" is currently composed of ethanol; the charts and figures shown in this section specifically show the petroleum-based component of gasoline. Source: Bloomberg Government (Projection) and Energy Information Administration (History)

According to the model, CAFE and RFS are much bigger drivers of the decline in gasoline demand than the adoption of CNG vehicles is. The assumption that CNG vehicle sales reach 5 percent of total light-duty vehicles sales by 2025 only reduces petroleum-demand about 1.5 percent more than simply meeting fuel economy and biofuel requirements.
8 BGOV Study Compressed Natural Gas: Impact on Gasoline Demand

These estimates assume that both the 2017-2025 CAFE requirements and the 36 billion gallon RFS are fully met, which at this time seems unlikely to occur. Falling short on either of these targets means that the adoption of CNG vehicles would have a larger proportional impact on gasoline demand. The limited impact of CNG vehicle adoption is primarily related to how long it takes to transform the U.S. vehicle stock. There are about 250 million cars and light trucks on the road today. Even with CNG vehicles reaching 5 percent of sales, or about 800,000 vehicles, in 2025, it still would take a long time for CNG vehicles to make up an appreciable share of the overall U.S. automobile fleet. (See Figure 5.) Under the "Bullish CNG Scenario," CNG vehicles would constitute only about 1.5 percent of light-duty vehicles on the road in 2025. Figure 5: CNG Vehicles vs. Cars and Light Trucks
Million Cars on the Road CNG Cars and Light Trucks 300 Light Trucks Cars

250

200

150

100

50

0 1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Source: Bloomberg Government (Projection) and Department of Energy (History)

Thinking About Transportation in Generational Terms

Adoption of CNG vehicles would have to occur over a long period and at an unprecedented rate to have an appreciable impact on the use of petroleum-based fuels. Even if CNG vehicles reach 5 percent of sales in 2025, which would be a much greater commercial success than hybrid vehicles, the impact on the overall fleet and gasoline demand would be small.

9 BGOV Study Compressed Natural Gas: Impact on Gasoline Demand

If Bloomberg Government extends the scenario to 2035, things start to look somewhat different. (See Figure 6.) By 2035, CNG vehicles could help to displace about 775,000 barrels per day, or about 12 billion gallons per year, of petroleum-based gasoline a decline of about 10 percent compared with current levels. This assumes that CNG vehicle sales continue to grow through 2030; the estimate shown in Figure 6 has CNG vehicles reaching 30 percent of total light-duty vehicle sales in 2030 and then holding steady at 30 percent from 2031 to 2035. Figure 6: Impact on Gasoline Demand
Million barrels per day History 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 CAFE Only CAFE + RFS BGOV "Bullish" CNG*

* BGOV "Bullish CNG Scenario" Includes Meeting CAFE and RFS Requirements Source: Bloomberg Government (Projections) and Energy Information Administration (History)

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CONCLUSION
Natural gas has many benefits: it is a plentiful domestic resource, it is cheap relative to gasoline, and it has lower emissions than gasoline or diesel fuel. Yet natural gas is unlikely to be a panacea for reducing U.S. reliance on oil and gasoline. The scenario in this study a very optimistic one in terms of CNG vehicle adoption concludes that U.S. petroleum-based gasoline demand doesn't dip below 1970 levels until 2035. A long-term commitment to alternative transportation options would be required to transform the U.S. automobile fleet and have a real impact on fuel demand. Policy makers have to think in generational terms if they want to move the needle on U.S. oil and gasoline reliance. Natural gas has the potential to be more transformative in the trucking sector. Longhaul trucks are driven many more miles each year and consequentially are upgraded and replaced more often than consumer vehicles. In this context, there may be greater potential for natural gas to displace demand for diesel fuel.

ABOUT THE ANALYST

Rob Barnett, an energy analyst at Bloomberg Government, specializes in energy sector economics, environmental policy and strategy, and emissions markets. Before joining Bloomberg, he was an associate director of Climate Change and Clean Energy at IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. At IHS CERA he led the environmental and energy analysis for various studies, including Growth in the Canadian Oil Sands: Finding the New Balance, and Crossing the Divide: The Future of Clean Energy. Before that, Barnett worked for Clemsons Power Quality and Industrial Applications Laboratory, where he modeled electric power systems to assess the impact of distributed generation. Barnett holds a masters degree in economics from Boston University and undergraduate and masters degrees in electrical engineering from Clemson University.

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APPENDIX: LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE FLEET MODEL DOCUMENTATION

Model Overview
Bloomberg Government developed a light duty vehicle fleet model to assess the implications of CAFE regulations, biofuel policies, and alternative fuels such as CNG. The model forecasts fuel demand from automobiles based on a variety of assumptions related to demographics, macroeconomics, consumer preferences and policy (see Figure 7). Each step and the assumptions that were made are described in more detail below. Figure 7: Bloomberg Governments Consumer Automobile Fleet Model
Demographic Assumptions
Population Growth Rate Vehicle Ownership Rate

Policy Assumptions
MPG

of New Vehicles / RFS

Macroeconomic Assumptions
New

Vehicle Sales

Consumer Preferences
Sales

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Model

Output
Fuel

Demand

Split Between Cars / Light Trucks / CNG Miles Traveled per Vehicle

Source: Bloomberg Government

12 BGOV Study Compressed Natural Gas: Impact on Gasoline Demand

Step 1: Population Forecast

The first step in the consumer automobile fleet model is to determine the size of the U.S. population. Combined with assumptions regarding per capita vehicle-ownership rates (next section), these two variables feed into an estimation of the overall size of the U.S. vehicle stock. Bloomberg Government assumed that the growth rate of the U.S. population would slow from about 1 percent per year in 2010 to about 0.8 percent per year in 2025 (see Figure 8). This closely aligns with recent U.S. census projections.11 Figure 8: U.S. Population Forecast
U.S. population in millions History 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Forecast

Source: Bloomberg Government

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Step 2: Vehicles per Capita Forecast

In 2010, there were about 0.8 cars and light trucks per person in the U.S. (see Figure 9). Bloomberg Government assumed that this would remain essentially unchanged over the next 15 years. Figure 9: U.S. Vehicles per Capita Forecast
Vehicles per person History 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Forecast

Source: Bloomberg Government

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Step 3: Vehicle Stock Forecast

The overall size of the U.S. vehicle stock is based on the U.S. population forecast and per capita vehicle-ownership rates (see Figure 10). The outlook calls for the total number of U.S. automobiles to increase from about 243 million in 2010 to about 282 million in 2025. (Note: The exact composition of the vehicle stock is subsequently determined based on Bloomberg Governments estimate of car and light truck sales.) Figure 10: U.S. Vehicle Stock Forecast
Million vehicles Cars 350 Light Trucks Forecast (Total)

300

250

200

150

100

50

0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Source: Bloomberg Government

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Step 4: Ratio of Cars to Light Truck Sales Forecast

Because cars and light trucks each have to satisfy a separate set of fuel economy requirements, the sales split between cars and light trucks is an important variable. Since 1990, increased sales of sport utility vehicles and other light trucks have gained market share. In recent years, the ratio between cars and light trucks has hovered around 1:1. Bloomberg Government assumed this ratio would remain the same (see Figure 11). Figure 11: Cars as a Percent of New Vehicle Sales
History 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Forecast

Source: Bloomberg Government

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Step 5: Vehicle Sales Forecast

The number of light duty vehicles sold each year can vary greatly depending on economic conditions. For example, between 2007 and 2009, annual U.S. automobile sales fell from about 16 million vehicles to about 10 million vehicles (see Figure 12). One key question is: how will automobile sales fare after the recession? Bloomberg Government assumed that sales would recover to 15 million vehicles per year by 2015 and then would grow at the same pace as the U.S. population. Combining the total new vehicle sales with the split between cars and light trucks (discussed in the previous section) yields the projected composition of the vehicle stock (see Figure 13). Figure 12: New Vehicle Sales
Million vehicles Light Trucks 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Cars CNG Vehicles

Source: Bloomberg Government

Figure 13: Vehicle Stock Composition

Million cars on the road CNG Vehicles 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1970 Light Trucks Cars

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Source: Bloomberg Government

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Step 6: New Vehicle Fuel-Economy Requirements

Fuel-economy requirements for cars and light trucks are a key input to the model. Bloomberg Government assumed that the auto industry would meet the targets specified in the 2017-2025 CAFE requirements (see Figure 14). Consistent with history and government estimates, Bloomberg Government assumed that on-road fuel economy would be about 20 percent below the values shown in Figure 14. Figure 14: Fuel Economy of New Cars and Light Trucks
Miles per gallon

History: Cars 60

Forecast: Cars

History: Light Trucks

Forecast: Light Trucks

50

40

30

20

10

0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Source: Bloomberg Government

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Step 7: Average On-Road Fuel Economy of Vehicle Stock

Combining vehicle sales with the fuel-economy requirements allowed Bloomberg Government to estimate how the average fuel economy of vehicles would change over time (see Figure 15). In 2011, the average U.S. vehicle achieved about 20.7 mpg; in 2025, the model projects the average vehicle will achieve about 26.2 mpg an increase of about 25 percent. This estimate is based on projections of the size of total vehicle stock and new vehicle sales, and considers the average fuel economy of new cars and light trucks sold. Figure 15: On-Road Fuel Economy of U.S. Vehicle Stock
Miles per gallon History: Cars 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Forecast: Cars History: Light Trucks Forecast: Light Trucks

Source: Bloomberg Government

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Step 8: Miles Traveled per Vehicle Forecast

The average number of miles traveled each year by cars and light trucks has a significant impact on gasoline demand and greenhouse-gas emissions. The number of miles driven per vehicle has increased since 1970. Bloomberg Government assumed that the number of miles driven each year would remain stable at levels slightly above current ones (see Figure 16). This is based on the assumption that people will drive slightly more as the economy improves. It also reflects the assumption that there are limits to the degree that people will keep increasing the number of miles they drive (that is, there are only so many miles people are willing to drive to commute to work or go on vacation). Figure 16: Miles Traveled per Vehicle Forecast
Miles per year History: Cars 14,000 Forecast: Cars History: Light Trucks Forecast: Light Trucks

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Source: Bloomberg Government

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Step 9: Miles Traveled by All Vehicles

The total number of miles driven by all vehicles was estimated using the size of the U.S. vehicle stock combined with Bloomberg Governments forecast of the average number of miles driven per vehicle each year (see Figure 17). Figure 17: Miles Traveled by All Vehicles
Million miles 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Source: Bloomberg Government

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Step 10: Gasoline Demand Estimate

Using the estimates described above, the final step of estimating U.S. gasoline demand is calculated using the following formula:

The inclusion of biofuels somewhat complicates the estimate of gasoline demand. Today, ethanol accounts for about 10 percent of the motor gasoline sold in the U.S. with the remaining 90 percent derived from petroleum. Bloomberg Government chose to make two separate estimates: one in which blended ethanol accounts for 10 percent of gasoline and one in which the RFS212 is met (see Figure 18). Meeting the RFS2 makes a big difference in terms of the petroleum-based component of gasoline demand. Figure 18: Gasoline Demand Forecast with 10 Percent Ethanol Blend
Million barrels per day History 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970 CAFE Only CAFE + RFS BGOV "Bullish CNG Scneario"

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Source: Bloomberg Government

22 BGOV Study Compressed Natural Gas: Impact on Gasoline Demand

ENDNOTES

U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Fuels Data Center, U.S. Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales by Model: www.afdc.energy.gov/data/tab/vehicles/data_set/10301 (retrieved Oct. 23, 2012).
2

Bureau of Economic Analysis, Light-Duty Vehicles Sold in the U.S. (See Table 6): www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xls (retrieved October 23, 2012).
3 4

Ibid.

Between 2002 and 2011, 1.07 million Prius automobiles were sold in the U.S. U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Fuels Data Center, U.S. Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales by Model: www.afdc.energy.gov/data/tab/vehicles/data_set/10301 (retrieved Oct. 23, 2012).
5 6

Ibid.

U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Fuels Data Center, U.S. Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales by Model: www.afdc.energy.gov/data/tab/vehicles/data_set/10301 (retrieved Oct. 23, 2012). Bureau of Economic Analysis, Light-Duty Vehicles Sold in the U.S. (See Table 6): www.bea.gov/national/xls/gap_hist.xls (retrieved Oct. 23, 2012).
7

Honda Civic, Compressed Natural Gas Product Page: http://automobiles.honda.com/civic-natural-gas/ (retrieved Oct. 23, 2012). "Ram to Build North Americas Only OEM Compressed Natural Gas -powered Pickup," Chrysler press release, March 6, 2012. http://media.chrysler.com/newsrelease.do?id=12067&mid=71 (retrieved Oct. 23, 2012).
8

"Honda has sold nearly 1,600 natural gas-powered Civics this year, more than 20 percent above 2011 levels. "Honda Offers Free Natural Gas to Spur Civic Natural Gas Car Sales, The Detroit News, Oct. 9, 2012: www.detroitnews.com/article/20121009/AUTO0104/210090427 (retrieved Oct. 23, 2012).
9

"Production Begins for Ram 2500 Compressed Natural Gas Truck; Availability Expanded to Retail Customers." Chrysler Press Release, October 30, 2012: http://media.chrysler.com/newsrelease.do?id=13411&mid=69 (retrieved November 30, 2012).
10

When considering gasoline and blended ethanol, as opposed to petroleum-based gasoline, peak demand occurred in 2007 as opposed to 2005. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review, Petroleum Consumption Estimates: Transportation Sector, 1949-2011 (Table 5.13c). www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/showtext.cfm?t=ptb0513c (retrieved Oct. 23, 2012).
11

Projections of the Population and Components of Change for the United States: 2010 to 2050 Low Net International Migration Series (NP2009-T1-L), US Census. www.census.gov/population/www/projections/files/nation/summary/NP2009-T1-L.csv (retrieved Oct. 23, 2012).
12

"RFS2" refers to the expanded 36 billion gallon per year transportation biofuel requirement included in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Information on the requirement can be found on EPA's website: www.epa.gov/otaq/fuels/renewablefuels/index.htm (retrieved Oct. 23, 2012).

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