STRASA Economic Briefs, No.

2 (March 2013)

Adoption, Yield, and Ex Ante Impact Analysis of Swarna-Sub 1 in Eastern India T. Yamano, M. Malabayabas, and M.K. Gumma

1. Introduction India has the largest rainfed lowland area in the world, with flooding being considered as one of the most important abiotic stresses to rice production, after drought and weeds. Flash floods are highly unpredictable, and may occur at any growth stage of the rice crop, with the frequency of floods being expected to increase in the future because of climate change. The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) and its collaborators have developed a submergence-tolerant rice variety, called Swarna-Sub1, which has been distributed to rice farmers in eastern India since 2008. The seed distribution of SwarnaSub1 expanded significantly when the National Food Security Mission included SwarnaSub1 in its eastern India programs in 2010. About 38,000 tons of seed were distributed, reaching an estimated 1.3 million farmers in 2012 alone. Swarna-Sub1 survives full submergence for up to 14 days because it was developed by introgressing a single quantitative trait locus (QTL) that causes submergence tolerance in Swarna, a popular rice variety in eastern India. Under normal conditions, Swarna-Sub1 is considered to show no significant differences in agronomic performance, grain yield, or grain quality compared with Swarna. Few studies document the adoption and performance of Swarna-Sub1 among farmers in nonexperimental settings and conduct ex ante impact analyses of Swarna-Sub1 based on its estimated yield advantages under different submergence conditions. To overcome this knowledge gap, we conducted farmer surveys in eastern Uttar Pradesha (EUP) and Odisha in 2012, inquiring about rice production during the 2011 kharif season. In this brief, we describe the information obtained from the household surveys and present the results of an ex ante impact analysis at the district level. 2. Data The data used in this paper originate from surveys conducted in April to June 2012 in EUP and Odisha. The same sampling procedures were employed in both states to facilitate comparison. We selected these two states because they belong to different agroclimatic systems and are less likely to be subject to submergence in a given season. This condition is important for assimilating data under different submergence conditions in a given season. In EUP and Odisha, we selected six and two districts, respectively, that are prone to submergence and where local nongovernment organizations (NGOs) have been distributing Swarna-Sub1 seeds. From local NGOs, we received lists of villages where Swarna-Sub1 seeds had been distributed. Then, we randomly selected 36 villages in EUP and 16 villages in Odisha.
T. Yamano is a senior scientist, M. Malabayabas is an assistant scientist, and M.K. Gumma is an associate scientist at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI).

STRASA was established by IRRI and Africa Rice with a view to reducing poverty and stabilizing rice production in drought and flood plagued and poor soiled rainfed ecosystems in South Asia and Africa through the use of modern technology. STRASA is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

STRESS-TOLERANT RICE FOR AFRICA AND SOUTH ASIA

Table 1. Sample villages and households in Uttar Pradesh and Odisha. Number of sample villages (A) State Uttar Pradesh Odisha Total 36 16 52 Number of sample households (B) 570 233 803 Number of sample households Original Neighbors users (C) 134 40 174 (D) 436 193 629 Swarna-Sub1 users among neighbors (E) % of (D) 34.7 8.8 22.7

Next, from the lists of farmers that received Swarna-Sub1 seeds, we randomly selected up to four Swarna-Sub1 users per village. In this report, we refer to these farmers as original users. In total, we interviewed 134 and 40 original users in EUP and Odisha, respectively (Table 1). In addition, we randomly selected an additional 12 villagers who resided in the same villages as original users. Hence, we interviewed 363 and 192 randomly selected households in EUP and Odisha, respectively. To distinguish the additional villagers from original users, we referred to them as neighbors, because they resided in the same villages as original users. In total, we interviewed 803 households.1 When NGOs search for farmers that might agree to use Swarna-Sub1, they tend to contact progressive farmers. Thus, original users should not be regarded as representative farmers. Instead, we should regard neighbor households as representative households of the sample areas. We find that the adoption rate of Swarna-Sub1 among neighbor households is about 35% in EUP and about 9% in Odisha. The adoption rate is high in EUP because government agencies have also distributed Swarna-Sub1 seeds in our survey areas. 3. Swarna-Sub1 yields under submergence conditions Figure 1 presents the average yields of Swarna-Sub1 and Swarna under different submergence conditions, which are grouped according to the period of full submergence. In 2011, severe floods occurred in Odisha, affecting almost all the sample households in this state. In EUP, only a small number of sample households experienced floods in the same year. By combining the data from the two states, we obtain rice yield data under different submergence conditions and find that Swarna-Sub1 has yield advantages of 0.7 and 1.5 tons/ha over Swarna when the length of full submergence lasts from 1 to 7 days and 8 to 14 days, respectively. The differences are statistically significant. When the length of full submergence is longer than 14 days, the yield difference becomes small because even Swarna-Sub1 cannot survive submergence durations greater than 14 days. Under normal conditions (i.e., without submergence), we find only a negligible difference between the yields. Our findings are consistent with agronomic studies such as Ismail et al (2013). Although Swarna-Sub1 survives full submergence for up to 14 days, this cultivar still requires additional time to re-grow and generate grains after a flooding event. In Odisha during 2011, submergence occurred mostly late during the rice
1

The household data used in this report were collected by NEFORD, an NGO based in Lucknow, and A.I.D., an NGO based in Bhubaneswar. We thank Dr. R.K. Singh, Dr. J.K. Roy, and staff at the two NGOs for their excellent survey work.

Fig. 1. Yields of Swarna and Swarna-Sub1 under submergence in eastern India.

growth process, in the panicle initiation and flowering periods. This partly explains the decline in Swarna-Sub1 yield as the length of full submergence extends; however, its yield under submergence is consistently higher than that of Swarna. 4. Ex ante impact analysis Thus, we know that rice farmers could reduce crop losses caused by medium-duration submergence by 1 ton/ha if Swarna-Sub1 is adopted. However, at the time of planting, farmers do not know the risk of flooding in a given year. Hence, farmers must select rice varieties, a priori, based on the subjective probability of medium-duration submergence. We calculate the expected gain from adopting Swarna-Sub1, instead of Swarna, as E(Gain) = Pr(S0) x YA0 + Pr(S1-7) x YA1-7 + Pr(S8-15) x YA8-15 E(Gain) represents the expected gain, Pr(Sx) represents the probability of submergence for x days, and YAx represents the yield advantage of Swarna-Sub1 over Swarna for x days of submergence. To calculate the expected gain, we must determine the probability of medium-duration submergence. To obtain this figure, we rely on remote-sensing techniques, which use moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) of 8day composite surface reflectance products. If we detect one location under submergence in one image but not in the consecutive image, which was taken 8 days later, we assume that the length of submergence was of short duration. If we detect one location under submergence for two consecutive images, we term the length of submergence as medium duration. If we detect submergence at one location for three consecutive images or more, the length of submergence is considered as long duration. By using MODIS data from 2000 to 2010, we calculate the probability of different lengths of submergence, for short-, medium-, and long-duration submergence, at the district level and obtain the expected gain of adopting Swarna-Sub1 based on the above equation. We present the results of the district-level expected gain in Figure 2, which clearly shows that the areas that would benefit most from Swarna-Sub1 are For more information, please visit www.irri.org and http://strasa.org

Fig. 2. Expected gains (kg/ha) from adopting Swarna-Sub1. lowland areas along the Ganga River at the border of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and northeast coastal areas of Odisha. The 10 districts with the highest expected gains are Bhabua, Bhojpur, Buxar, and Rohtas in Bihar; Kendrapara, Baleshwar, and Bhadrak in Odisha; East Midnapore and South 24 Parganas in West Bengal; and Chandauli in Uttar Pradesh. The results shown in Figure 2 could be used to guide future seed distribution. 5. Concluding remarks In this report, we clearly demonstrate the yield advantage of Swarna-Sub1 under medium-duration submergence. The ex ante analysis presented in this report can be used to guide seed distribution programs for Swarna-Sub1. However, caution must be taken in the interpretation of the results. First, we use the yield data from just one kharif season in 2011. We must continue collecting yield data to obtain more accurate yield advantages of Swarna-Sub1. Second, to shift from expected gains to expected production at an aggregated level, that is, the state level, we must estimate the adoption rates of SwarnaSub1 at an aggregated level. Finally, the adoption rate of Swarna-Sub1 was just 9% among our Odisha samples in 2011, although almost all sample households in Odisha suffered from severe floods. Significant amounts of rice could have been saved among the nonadopters if they had adopted Swarna-Sub1. Further studies are required to facilitate the faster dissemination of Swarna-Sub1.
References

Ismail AM, Singh US, Singh S, Dar MH, Mackill DJ. 2013. The contribution of submergence-tolerant (Sub1) rice variety to food security in flood-prone rainfed areas in Asia. Field Crops Research, forthcoming.

INTERNATIONAL RICE RESEARCH INSTITUTE

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