Currencies Daily Report

Friday| September 6, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| September 6, 2013 Market Highlights (% change)
as on September 5, 2013 Prev. day WoW MoM YoY

Highlights
US ADP Non-Farm Farm Employment Change declined to 176,000 in August. German Factory Orders declined 2.7 percent in prior month. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.6-mark mark in last month. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note today ahead of the US jobs report. Further, mixed economic data from US in yesterdays trade acted as a negative factor. US Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Non-Farm Farm Employment Change declined by 22,000 to 176,000 in August as against a rise of 198,000 in July. Unemployment Claims fell by 9,000 to 323,000 for the th week ending on 30 August from 332,000 a month ago. Revised Nonfarm Productivity increased by 2.3 percent in Q2 of 20 2013 with respect to 0.9 percent in Q1 of 2013. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 2.6 points to 58.6-mark mark in August when compared to 56 56level in July. Factory Orders dropped by 2.4 percent in July from rise of 1.6 percent a month earlier.
NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Oct13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Oct13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

Last

5593.0 18979.8 14937.48 1655.1 17463.5 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 108.37 1373.10 23.21

2.7 2.2 0.0 0.1 4.5 -1.5 0.2 0.2 1.1 -1.2 -0.7

0.9 1.3 0.8 -3.1 0.0 2.7 17.2 -0.1 -1.6 -2.8 -3.7

0.9 1.3 -3.6 -3.1 1.6 4.0 16.3 3.2 4.8 4.6 13.8

6.0 3.8 14.5 17.9 14.7 0.5 0.3 66.3 13.6 -18.8 -28.9

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained around 0.6 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of unfavorable employment data from US which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. The currency touched an intra-day day high of 82.71 and closed at 82.67 on Thursday.

7134.50 102.09

0.0 0.0

-0.4 14.0

-9.1 9.7

-6.5 2.5

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on September 5, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Dollar Index

82.67 66.01 66.63 66.63

0.6 1.6 -1.31 1.31 -1.29 1.29

0.8 0.8 8.74 8.74

2.0 -8.6 8.74 8.74

4.0 -15.8 18.69 18.68

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated around round 1.6 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on the back of measures taken by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) new governor Raghuram Rajan. The measures include enhancing limits for exporters to re re-book cancelled forward exchange contracts ontracts and a special concessional window to swap foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits. Further, upbeat domestic market sentiments supported an upside in the Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day day high of 65.53 and closed at 66.01 on Thursday. For the month of September 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.222.0 th crores ($32.13 million) as on 5 September 2013. Year to date basis, net th capital inflows stood at Rs.59947.90 crores ($11551.20 million) till 5 September 2013. Outlook In todays session, we expect Rupee to trade on a positive note as a result of weakness in the DX. Further, measures taken by RBI RBIs new Governor will support an upside. However, sharp positive movement will be capped or reversal can be seen on account of mixed global market sentiments.

US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Sep13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Sep13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Sep13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for September 6, 2013 Support 66.30/65.90 Resistance 67.10/67.40

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| September 6, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro declined around 0.7 percent in the yesterdays trading session taking cues from strength in the DX. Further, unfavorable favorable economic data from the region exerted downside pressure on n the currency. However, sharp downside will be cushioned as a result of upbeat global market sentiments. The Euro touched an intra-day day low of 1.3109 and closed at 1.3119 on Thursday. German rman Factory Orders declined 2.7 percent in August as against a gain of 5 percent in July. Minimum Bid Rate remained unchanged at 0.5 percent. Outlook In today's session, we expect Euro to trade lower on the back of mixed global market sentiments. Additionally, expectations of decline in German industrial production data will act as negative factor. However, sharp downside can be cushioned or reversal can be seen as a result of weakness in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Sep13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 87.60/87.30 88.30/88.70 valid for September 6, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on September 5, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Sep 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Sep13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3119 86.60 88.9 88.9

-0.7 2.2 1.02 1.03

-0.9 1.7 9.30 9.31

-1.4 -7.1 9.30 9.31

4.4 -19.3 25.00 25.00

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on September 5, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated by around 0.2 percent yesterday taking cues from strength in the DX. However, upbeat market sentiments prevented sharp downfall. The currency touched an intraday low of 1.5572 and closed at 1.5589 on Thursday. UKs Asset Purchase Facility remained unchanged at 375 Billion Pounds. Official Bank Rate remained unchanged at 0.5 5 percent. Outlook We expect Pound to trade on a negative note in today's trade on the back of mixed global market sentiments. Additionally, forecast for slow growth in manufacturing and industrial production data from the country will exert downside pressure ssure on the currency currency. However, sharp downside can be cushioned or reversal can be seen on account of weakness in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Sep 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for September 6, 2013 Support 103.80/103.50 Resistance 104.50/104.80 Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Sep13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Sep 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5589 102.915 104.30

-0.22 0.22 -1.78 1.78 -0.90 0.90

0.6 -0.26 10.96

1.6 10.10 10.96

-1.8 15.76 48.22

104.26

-0.95 0.95

10.87

10.87

48.15

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| September 6, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session due to rise in risk appetite in the markets leading to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen en touched an intraday low of 100.19 and closed at 100.11 on Thursday. Outlook We expect Yen to appreciate in todays session on account of rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Sep 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for September 6, 2013 Support 66.40/66.20 Resistance 66.90/67.20

JPY (% change)
Last

as on September 5, 2013 Prev day WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Sep13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Sep13 Futures (MCX-SX)

100.1 0.659 66.73 66.71

0.4 -1.96 -1.62 -1.66

1.8 -2.59 7.30 7.22

2.4 6.39 7.30 7.22

27.7 -7.51 -25.11 -25.12

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on September 6, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

German Trade Balance Halifax HPI m/m Manufacturing Production m/m Consumer Inflation Expectations Trade Balance German Industrial Production m/m FOMC Member Evans Speaks Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings m/m NIESR GDP Estimate G20 Meetings FOMC Member George Speaks

Euro UK UK UK UK Euro US US US US UK All US

11:30am 6 -7
th th

15.9B 0.7% 0.3% -8.2B -0.3% 177K 7.4% 0.2% -

15.7B 0.9% 1.9% 3.6% -8.1B 2.4% 162K 7.4% -0.1% 0.7% -

Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium High High Medium High Medium Medium

2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 3:30pm 5:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm Day 2 11:00pm

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