Challenge or Opportunity?

An Optimal Water Strategy for China

Control Group 20639

COMAP Mathematical Contest in Modeling February 04, 2013

Abstract The fresh water resource is one of the most essential element of human being. As the growth of population and the trend of economic development, water management is becoming a challenge of every country in the world. In this paper, we are to propose a water strategy of 2013 for China to meet the water need in 2025. Firstly, we divide China into six regions to look for a macroscopic water plan. By observing the inputs and outputs, we use a system model to analyze the change of water for a certain region. The water reserves for emergencies is considered to ensure the stability of the system. We dene Richness Index with water, population and GDP to describe the richness of water resource. A standard value of this index is dened and used to determine the standard demand of water. In the basic model, we predict the water supply in 2025 under current policy without a new strategy, then compare it with the standard demand to get the shortage. We predict the water supply using a binary regression of population and GDP. The result shows that Region 2 (North China) and 3 (Central China) will suffer from critical shortage in 2025 under current policy, which provides a guide to our water strategy. To ll the water shortage in 2025, we build an advanced model including four aspects: transfer and storage, desalinization, pollution control and agricultural utilization. After analyzing respectively, we combine the four aspects together in a comprehensive optimization model, then solve it to get an optimal water strategy for the six regions. This strategy can solve the problem of Region 2 and 3, and the Richness Index will become more even among the six regions. The total cost of this water strategy is 2044.16 billion dollars, which is about 1.26% of the total GDP from 2013 to 2025 of China. We also discuss the implication on economy, health/living condition and environment of our strategy. The method of our model can be generalized to give a detailed strategy of each region. Our water strategy is based on careful analysis and performs well, but we also ignore some factors such as the change of price. Further strategy for each region, climate changes and advertising should be the guidance of future works.

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Contents
1 Introduction 2 Criterion of Success 3 Analysis and Preparations 3.1 3.2 3.3 System Model: Input and Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dene Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Criterion of Richness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 10 11 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 18 18 18 18 18 19

4 Basic Model: Under the Current Policy 4.1 4.2 4.3 Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Assumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Original Water Supply Sorigin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.1 4.3.2 4.3.3 4.4 4.5 Correlation of Water, Population and GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Predicting Population and GDP from 2013 to 2025 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Get Sorigin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Standard Demand Dstand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Shortage and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5 Advanced Model: Our Water Strategy 5.1 Transfer and Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.1 5.1.2 5.1.3 5.2 Assumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Notation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Determine the Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Desalinization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.1 5.2.2 Assumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Production and Cost in 2025 by Desalinization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5.3

Pollution Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.1 5.3.2 Assumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cost and Volume . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5.4

Agricultural Utilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4.1 5.4.2 Assumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Notation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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5.4.3 5.4.4 5.5

Water Saving by Improving Irrigation Mode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Calculation of Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

19 19 20 20 20 21 22 22 23 24 24 25 25 28

Comprehensive Model: An Optimal Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5.1 5.5.2 5.5.3 Assumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Optimization Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Result: A Detailed Plan for Six Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6 Evaluation of Implications 6.1 6.2 6.3 Economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Physical Health and Living Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7 Strengths and Weaknesses 8 Future Works 9 A Position Paper of 2025 Water Strategy Appendices

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1 Introduction
Congratulations! China, we both reach the top 5 richest countries in fresh water resource! said America, after a recent world water conference. Thank you, answered China, but... I am still worrying... Why? You have so many lakes and rivers, the supply should be quite enough! Well, thats the truth, answered China again, but meanwhile, we are so crowded, and the irregular water distribution results in many troubles.

Figure 1: Chinas worry of water resource

As the conversation above between China and United States, water management is both a challenge and an opportunity for every country in the world. An undeniable trend is that growing population and productivity call for growing demand of fresh water, and thus push more pressure on the water supply and protection. As the biggest developing country, China is faced with water management problem in the next period and is planning for an effective strategy to meet the water needs of 2025. Natural Condition The nartural condition of China can be concluded as topography and climate[1]. The topography descends in elevation from the west to the east, and the complex types of climate can be summarized as the southeastern wet, the northwestern dry, as shown in Figure 2.

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(a) Topography

(b) Precipitation: the southeastern wet, the northwestern dry (Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University, 2001)

Figure 2: Topography and precipitation of China

Water resource in China Although the total amount is large, the water resource per Capita in China is only a quarter of the world average level (ranking 110 among all countries). At the end of 20th century, 2/3 of the 600 cities in China suffered from water shortage [2]. Except the large Chinese population, the two main problem is the uneven distribution in space and pollution. Almost 80 percent of the total resources are in the South of China [3]. In addition, the inconsistency between water resource and productivity does inhibit the development of economy. With more than 60% of farmland and 46% of population, the six Northern river basins contribute 44% of the national GDP, but have merely 20% of the countrys water resource [1]. Therefore, to control the population and nd a balance of water distribution should be the guide of water strategy. As a pratical reaction, China launched the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in 2002, including East, Middle and West routes, to alleviate the water shortage in the north [4]. By the mid-21th century, the project will reach a transfer capacity of 44.8 billion m3 , bringing great help in social and ecnomic development of the nation. Now we are faced with the following task: Propose a 2013 water strategy for the country, te meet the water needs of 2025. Considering storage and movement, desalinization, conservation and other aspects, we need to build a mathematical model and make up a plan for the next 12 years project. Our approach is: 1. Use a system model to analyze the change of water resource for a certain region. 2. Divide China into six regions to plan for a strategy in a macroscopic perspective.

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3. Dene Richness Index (considering water resource, population and GDP) as the criterion of water richness. 4. Build a basic model (under the current water policy) to predict the water shortage of each region in 2025. 5. To ll the shortage, we build an advanced model to analyze four main aspects: transfer and storage, desalinization, pollution control and agricultural utilization. 6. Combine the four aspects together to build a comprehensive optimization model, then solve it to nd an optimal strategy for the six regions. 7. Summarize and discuss the result of the comprehensive model. 8. Discuss the implications of our water strategy on 1) economy, 2) health and living condition, 3) environment. 9. Draw a conclusion of the strengths and weaknesses of our model, and discuss the improvement for future works.

2 Criterion of Success
Meet the standard water demand. A basic requirment is to t the water needs of 2025 under current degree of water usage, then we just need to predict the need of 2025 with 2013 and the former data. However, a fact is that China is a water-shortage country in the world, and the country has been hydropenia for a long time. So besides the basic need (of current degree), we also consider how to promote the total level of water usage, which may reect the demand from the heart. We set the standard water demand (usually higher than the current level) and use our strategy to struggle for it. Minimize the overall cost of the strategy. Among the methods of the water project such as transfer, desalinization of sea water and pollution controlling, the expenditure is an important concern. A economic plan can not only save money for the government and improve efciency, but also help to prevent unexpected cases (such as interrupt of project due to funding shortage). Enough water reserves under emergencies. To plan ahead for the possibile emergencies (natural disasters, project accidents) is necessary. If the supply from outer area is blocked, the local water reserves should at least provide the domestic water for a period (such as one week) to wait for the rescue. As the saying goes, get ready for rainy days. An even and reasonable water distribution. To solve the problem of water distribution in China is a major concern, and reasonable means our strategy should consider population and productivity of a region, since they reect the demand of water.

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3 Analysis and Preparations

3.1 System Model: Input and Output
For a certain region, we introduce a system model to describe the character of water resource. The input and output are analogies of the increase and decrease of water respectively, as follow in Figure3.

Figure 3: The system model of water resource

With the system model above, we can divide all factors into two parts: input (cause increase) and output (cause decrease). So the behavior or change of water resource is clearly monitored. Suppose a system with zero initial condition (no water at the beginning), the remaining water resource can be described as: Input Output, which may roughly be the supply minus demand. Usually, we hope to have enough water and avoid shortage, namely: Input Output 0

Moreover, as for the stability of the system, we should consider how strong or robust the system is under emergencies. For a water system of a certain region, whether it is stable depends on how much water it reserves. For example, during an earthquake, a region might be isolated and the outer supply of water is blocked, the water reserves should be enough at least for domestic use for a period of time. We dene this extra water as Emergency water, denoted as . So the expression above should be changed as: Input Output ,

Input Output

(3.1)

For , here we plan for a 7-day (a week) water reserves of domestic use (Ddaily is the daily domestic demand of a region):

= 7 Ddaily

(3.2)

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3.2 Dene Regions

For simplication and a more macroscopic strategy, we hope to divide the area of China into several regions. According to the national standard of water quality in 2002, the area is divided into six regions based on economic level, climate and precipitation [5]. The denition of six regions are shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Six regions of China in the analysis of water strategy

Region 1 2 3 4 5 6

Name Northeast North China Central China South Southwest Tibet and Sinkiang

Provinces included Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia

Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Gansu Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian

Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan Sinkiang, Tibet, Qinghai

In the later of this paper, our strategy is mainly designed for the six regions, considering each region a sub-system of the whole country. In other words, we focus our strategy on: 1. how to meet the water need of each region; 2. how the regions complement each other.

3.3 Criterion of Richness

In order to measure the richness of water for a certain region, we need to consider what factors are related to water consumption. Here we maily use population and GDP to measure it. More people means more water use, and GDP represents the productivity and economic development, which call for a great water demand. We dene Richness Index R to describe the richness:

R=

water population GDP

(3.3)

where water stands for the actual water supply, or input, of a certain region. R represents the share of per unit of population and GDP, and the higher R indicates the richer of water supply. For year 2011, we begin to calculate R of each province of China: The water supply, population and GDP of each province are as follow (population and GDP data are from the website of National Bureau of Statistics of China [6], and water from the website of The Ministry of Water Resources of the Peoples Republic of China [7]): For Region 1, we have: 7.0291010 R = 134.48952,410 = 548.80 m3 / (million people million dollars)

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Table 2: Water supply, population and GDP of six regions (2011)

Region water supply (m3 ) population (million) GDP (million dollar)

1
7.029 1010

2
1.102 1011

3
2.339 1011

4
8.768 1010

5
4.539 1010

6
6.316 1010

134.48 952,410

401.79 2,483,276

422.39 2,940,963

160.27 1,074,566

190.69 730,537

30.8 139,956

Table 3: Richness Index R of six regions (2011)

Region R

1 2 3 4 5 6 548.80 110.50 188.29 509.11 325.83 14,652.10 Unit: m3 / (million people million dollars)

In the same way, we calculate R of the other 5 regions (see in Table 3). The result is shown as a color map in Figure 4:

Figure 4: Richness of water in 2011 (represented by Richness Index )

Standard Richness Index As we discuss above,R is a metric of richness, and it represents the level of water resources. So to improve the water condition is equivalent to enhance the value of R, then a standard value of R is needed. At rst, we have tried to nd the data of a developed country with sufcient water resources. However, after calculation we nd it was not a practical idea for this 12-year plan to achieve. Noting in Table 3 that R values of Region 2 and Region 3 (North and Central China) are signicantly less than the other 4 regions, which may be explained by the large population (61.49% of the nation)

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and strong productivity (65.18% of the national GDP). To solve the main problem, we hope to set a standard value of R higher than 110.50 (Region 2) and 188.29 (Region 3), then propose an effective strategy till 2025 to fulll this goal. Namely, here we dene Standard Richness Index:

Rstand = 200 m3 / (million people million dollars),

to be the guide of water strategy of 2025. By multiplying the population and GDP in 2025, we can get the standard water demand. This will be discussed later in Chapter 4.4 .

4 Basic Model: Under the Current Policy

4.1 Approach
To propose a new strategy for 2025 water needs, we should rst discuss what may happen if China maintain the current water policy. However, the exsisting policies and projects are too difcult to analyze, thus we make an assumption that under current water policy, the water supply will change according to the previous pattern. In other words, we can predict the water supply of each region from 2013 to 2025 by tting the corresponding history data of population and GDP. The procedure is concluded in Figure 5 below. Since this supply does not conclude our strategy (discussed in the next Chapter), we dene it as original supply, denoted as Sorigin .

Figure 5: Procedure to get the water supply of 2025 under current policy

As for the demand, we use the Standard Richness Index Rstand to calculate the standard water demand (Dstand ) based on the formula below:

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Dstand = Rstand population GDP

(4.1)

Therefore, the system should only consist of an input Sorigin and an output Dstand , as described below:

Figure 6: Water system of basic model

4.2 Assumption
During the period from 2013 to 2025 in China, we assume: The water policies and major projects (such as the South-to-North Water Transfer Project) remain unchanged. Under current water policy, the water supply will change according to the previous pattern. No abnormal change in climate geographical condition.

4.3 Original Water Supply Sorigin

4.3.1 Correlation of Water, Population and GDP To take Region 1 (Northeast) as an example, the data of water (original supply Sorigin ), population and GDP from 1997 to 2011 are listed in Table 4:
Table 4: Water supply, population and GDP of Region 1 (1997 to 2011)

Year

Sorigin (106 m3 )
population (million) GDP (billion dollar) 2004 55,860 131.27 286.40

1997 61,949 128.43 140.36 2005 56,940 131.43 335.12

1998 62,400 129.19 151.99 2006 60,020 132.14 393.66

1999 62,000 129.83 160.70 2007 60,500 132.57 454.99

2000 60,800 130.31 178.97 2008 61,370 132.88 577.43

2001 59,600 130.73 195.48 2009 64,380 133.07 661.46

2002 55,600 130.94 213.92 2010 66,550 134.27 784.94

2003 54,800 131.09 241.69 2011 70,290 134.48 952.41

We make two scatterplots for the two pair of variables, and make linear regressions of them as follow: To combine the two linear model together, we have:

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(a) Population and water (Sorigin )

(b) GDP and water (Sorigin )

Figure 7: Scatterplot and linear regression

Sorigin = 0 + 1 population + 2 GDP

(4.2)

where 0 = 5.31 1011 ,1 = 3673.78,0 = 0.0352;

Sorigin : m3 , population: per person, GDP : dollor.

4.3.2 Predicting Population and GDP from 2013 to 2025 Population: We use the data of Region 1 (1997 to 2011) to build a Logistic model of population:

population =

pmax 1+(pmax /p0 1)er(t1997)

where t is the year and p0 = 128.43 is the population of year 1997. The tted curve is shown in Figure 8:

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Figure 8: Logistic model of population

Thus we get the formula:

population =

146.02 1+(146.02/128.431)e0.0312(t1997)

So in 2025, the population of Region 1 should be:

146.02 = 138.12 million. 1+(146.02/128.431)e0.0312(20251997)

GDP: We perform a linear regression to predict the GDP of Region 1:

Figure 9: Linear regression of GDP

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Table 5: Sorigin in 2025

Region

Sorigin (billion m3 )
The tting result is:

1 76.71

2 106.11

3 267.80

4 94.75

5 52.39

6 69.77

GDP = p1 year + p2
where p1 = 5.29 1010 , p2 = 1.056 1014 , and R2 = 0.8657. So the GDP in 2025 is: p1 2025 + p2 = 1522.5 billion dollar. 4.3.3 Get Sorigin Substituting eq. (4.2) with population = 138.12 million and GDP = 1522.5 billion, we have the original water supply of Region 1 in 2025:

Sorigin = 0 + 1 138.12 106 + 2 1522.5 109 = 76.71 billion m3

Similarly, we can get the original water supply Sorigin of the other ve regions in 2025:

4.4 Standard Demand Dstand

According to eq. (4.1), we calculate the standard water demand Dstand of six regions in 2025.
Table 6: Dstand of six regions in 2025

Region

Dstand (billion m3 ) 42.0590 4.5 Shortage and Conclusions

2 344.9813

3 414.2402

4 71.5225

5 44.0218

6 1.4957

Now we need to determine whether the water resource in 2025 is enough of each region, then determine the shortage. In the discussion Chapter 3.1 we concluded eq. (3.1) and eq. (3.2) to meet the water needs and stability: Input Output 0. In this basic model, the Input and Output are Sorigin and Dstand respectively; ,the Emergency water, should be the 7-day reserves of domestic water use:

Sorigin Dstnad

(4.3)

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Calculation of . According to The standard of water quantity for citys residentialuse [5], the standard of daily domestic water consumption of each region is listed below in Table , and we calculate the daily consumption of each region thus get each:
Table 7: Domestic water consumption per day and

Region daily domestic water per person (L) daily domestic water of the region (million m3 ) (7-day of the region, million m3 )

1 80 11.05 77.35

2 85 36.36 254.51

3 120 53.08 371.55

4 150 29.90 209.33

5 100 19.60 137.21

6 75 2.60 18.21

To combine the data of Sorigin , Dstand and in Table 5, 6 and 7, we get the difference of them based on eq.(4.3), which reect the shortage of each region:
Table 8: Sorigin Dstnad of six regions in 2025

Sorigin Dstnad (billion m3 )

Conclusion:

Region

1 34.5736

2 -239.126

3 -146.812

4 23.018

5 8.231

6 68.256

In Table 8 we nd that in Region 2 and Region 3, the value of Sorigin Dstnad < 0, which represents a water shortage in 2025 under current policies. In other words, if the government do not make any change in water policy, by 2025 the two major regions (North and Central) would suffer from critical shortage of water. Therefore, our strategy is going to alleviate the shortage problem in Region 2 and Region 3. From a nationwide perspective, one alternative method is to transfer water from other regions.

5 Advanced Model: Our Water Strategy

In the model of water strategy, we mainly discuss four aspects: transfer and storage, desalinization, pollution, and agricultural utilization.
Table 9: A conclusion of factors (inputs and outpus) of water

Factor (Inputs / Outputs) Original supply Sorigin Standard demand Dstand Transfer (in/out) Desalinization Pollution control Agricultural utilization

Change in water + +/+ + +

Cost

+ + + +

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Approach: 1. Analyze the four aspects respectively to get a guidance of the strategy; 2. Combine them into a global decision model and nd an optimal solution to ll the shortage while minimizing the cost. Basic Assumptions: Migration among the six regions can be ignored compared with the population growth respectively. The economic development in China would appear a steady growth, without signicant uctuation. During the period from 2013 to 2025, no serious disaster happens (such as earthquake, ood and pestilence). No war happens. Climate (precipitation) is stable, and topography would not change. The price level in China would not change greatly during the period.

5.1 Transfer and Storage

5.1.1 Assumption 1. In the cost of reservoirs (storage), we mainly consider the construction cost, while the operating cost is much lower so we ignore it. 2. The transfer cost only depends on the volume of water being transferred, but not related to the distance. 3. Only a sufcient region (except Region 2 and 3) can transfer its water to other regions. 4. All transfer-in water become storage in resrvoirs, which means we should construct at least enough reservoirs to store the transfer-in water. 5.1.2 Notation

Ti (m3 ) : the transfer-in water supplement of Region i (i = 1, 2,..., 6).

To ll the shortage of Region 2 and 3 by transferring water from other regions, we have:

T2,3 > 0, T1,4,5,6 < 0. Ni : the number of large-scale reservoirs needed for storage (i = 2, 3).
A large-scale reservoir can store more than 100 million m3 of water [8] and the storage cost per cubic metre is cheaper than a small-scale one. So our priority is the large-scale, thus we have:

Ni = f loor(Ti /(100 106 ))

where f loor () means rounding down to the nearest integer.

CTi (dollar) : the cost of transfer and storage for Region i (i = 2, 3).

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5.1.3 Determine the Cost Transfer cost: The average cost of water transfer is 0.4 dollar per cubic metre[9]. Storage cost: For a large-scale reservoir (capacity >100 million), the cost is 1.87 dollar per cubic metre; for a small-scale one (capacity <100 million) it is 4 dollar per cubic metre [8]. Hence, for Region i in need of transfer-in water, the total cost of transfer and storage can be describe as the following formula:

Cost = 0.4 waterin + 1.87 N umberlarge + 4 N umbersmall

Since the large-scale is our priority (cheaper), we have the total cost CTi (i = 2, 3):

CTi = 0.4 Ti + 1.87 Ni 100 106 + 4 (Ti Ni 100 106 )

(5.1)

5.2 Desalinization
Desalinization is a ourishing industry in fresh water supply. As a country with water shortage, China has been developping relevant techniques for decades. More projects are launched in recent years, which is both a trend and a response to Chinas water policy [10]. Different from the other three factors, for desalinization, we assume that supports from the government is consistent with the current trend. In the following years from 2013 to 2025, the production of water by desalinization will keep on growing, and we assume it ts a Logistic growth. So our task is: To predict the production of water by desalinization in 2025; Then to calculate the corresponding nancial cost that the government need to pay for. 5.2.1 Assumption 1. Supports to desalinization from the government is consistent with the current trend. 2. The production of water (by desalinization) ts a Logistic growth. 5.2.2 Production and Cost in 2025 by Desalinization Production The production by desalinization from 2000 to 2011 in China are as below[10]:
Table 10: Production by desalinization in China

Year Production

2000 10

2001 19

2002 20

2003 2004 2005 2006 30 35 70 150 (thousand m3 per day)

2007 150

2008 162

2009 270

2010 520

2011 575

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P roduction =

2707.28 1+(2707.28/101)e0.395(year2000)

Figure 10: Logistic tting of production by desalinization

We use a Logistic model to t the data above, and the results are as below: Thus, in 2025 the production by desalinization is: 2645.97 (thousand m3 per day). Distribution of Production According to the research by Guoling Ruan from State Oceanic Administration, all ongoing projects of desalinization locate in the Southeast Coast of China. Compared with the six regions we found 84.7 percent of them belong to North China (Region 2) and 15.3 percent belong to Central China (Region 3) [11]. Therefore, for Region 2, the total water provided by desalinization in 2025 should be:

D2 = 2645.97 103 365 84.7% = 818 million (m3 )

Similarly, for Region 3 we have:

D3 = 2645.97 103 365 15.3% = 147.7 million (m3 )

Cost The unit cost of desalinization reduces by 4% yearly, and the current cost (2013) is 0.8 dollar/m3 [10], so we have: Unit cost in 2025 DE = 0.8 (1 4%)12 = 0.49 dollar/m3

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For Region 2, the total cost on desalinization in 2025 is:

CD2 = D2 0.49 = 400 million dollar,

For Region 3,

CD3 = D3 0.49 = 72.4 million dollar. 5.3 Pollution Control

5.3.1 Assumption 1. The technology in pollution treatment is at the same level over the country. 2. We only consider industrial and domestic pollution of water. 3. Controlling polluted water is equivalent to fresh water production in the same volume. 4. Among the total water consumption, 30 percent is of industrial and domestic use (70 percent of agriculture) [12]. 5.3.2 Cost and Volume The construction cost of a wastewater plant is 145 million dollar; and the treating capacity is 183 million m3 per year [13]. For Region i, the volume of polluted water being treated is Si m3 , so the cost CSi should be: ,

CSi = 1.45 ceil

Si 1.83

) (dollar) (5.2)

where ceil () means rounding down to the nearest integer. Noting that Si should be less than the total industrial and domestic pollution of water.

5.4 Agricultural Utilization

5.4.1 Assumption 1. Agriculture consume 70 percent of the total water consumption for each region[12]. 2. The irrigation land accounts for 50% of total agricultural land [14]. 3. Based on the standard of Israel in agricultural water conservation, we hope that by 2025, at best 60% of irrigation land in China can reach the standard (by changing the modes of irrigation). 4. No signicant change in the total area of agricultural land. 5. For simplicity, we assume all irrigation land in China use ooding irrigation as the only method.

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5.4.2 Notation

W 0i a% (0<a 60) Wi

water consumption under current irrigation mode in Region i percentage of irrigation land under improved mode (of Israel) in Region i water saving after improving the irrigation mode in Region i

5.4.3 Water Saving by Improving Irrigation Mode In general, the four types of irrigation methods are: trickling, micro-irrigation, moving irrigation and ooding irrigation. The irrigation mode (proportion of each method) of Israel is as follow [15]:
Table 11: Irrigatnion mode of Israel

Method Proportion Efciency in water use

trickling 80 % 95 %

micro-irrigation 10 % 95 %

moving irrigation 5% 90 %

ooding irrigation 5% 50 %

For Region i, suppose a % of the irrigation land follows the mode above of Israel, we can calculate the water saving:

[ ( + Wi = W 0i W 0i 80% 95%

10% 95%

5% 90%

5% 50%

50% a% + W 0i (1 a%)

= 0.449 W 0i a%(m3 )

(5.3)

5.4.4 Calculation of Cost The expenditure of micro-irrigation and moving irrigation are as below [16]: micro-irrigation 0.2489 dollar/m3 moving irrigation 0.1397 dollar/m3

Area of agricultural land (Area of Cultivated Land at Year-end by Region, 2008 [17]):
Table 12: Agricultural land of six regions (109 m3 )

Region

Aagriculture

1 2859.27

2 3630.38

3 2526.96

4 777.57

5 1874.07

6 502.89

So the cost of improving irrigation mode (by a %) should be:

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CWi = Aagriculture 109 50% a% (90% 0.2489 + 5% 0.1397)

0.257 Aagriculture 109 Wi W 0i

(5.4)

Meanwhile, Wi should be less than the best condition (when a% = 60%), namely:

Wi

W 0i 60% 0.449 .

5.5 Comprehensive Model: An Optimal Strategy

5.5.1 Assumption 1. We only consider transfer between two ajacent regions. 2. Only the sufcient regions can transfer water to the others. Although Region 2 and 3 are ajacent, they cannot transfer water to each other (because of the shortage). For each region, we dene SD = |Sorigin Dstnad | as the shortage in 2025 according to Table 8, namely:

SD1
34.5736

SD2
239.126

SD3
146.812

SD4
23.018

SD5
8.231

SD6
68.256

For sufcient regions, Region 1, 4, 5, 6 can transfer water to other regions; Region 2 can accept water from Region 1 and 6, Region 3 can accept water from Region 4 and 5. 5.5.2 Optimization Model After analysis, we conclude the model as follow:

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We solve the model using Genetic Algorithm in MATLAB, and the result is concluded in the next section. 5.5.3 Result: A Detailed Plan for Six Regions We summarize our result in the following Table 13.
Table 13: A detailed plan for 2025

Region

Transfer-in (million m3 ) 180527.88 110208.44 Desalinization (million m3 ) 818 147.7 Wastewater plant constructed 126 172 132 156 86 115 Wastewater treated (million m3 ) 23012.94 31429.48 23986.87 28423.99 15716.92 20931.00 Saving in agriculture (million m3 ) 14461.98 20008.74 23984.02 17867.72 5434.79 13156.85 59.58 % 60.00 % 28.49 % 60.00 % 33.01 % 60.00 % a% Transfer-in: For Region 2, 78737.56 million m3 from Region1 and 101790.31 million m3 from Region 6; For Region 3, 33504.23 million m3 from Region 5 and 76704.20 million m3 from Region 4.

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Table 14: Total cost of the strategy for 2025 (billion dollar)

Transfer and Storage 981.16 billion

Desalinization (of 2025) 427.4 million

Pollution control 83.81 billion

Agriculture 978.73 billion

Total Cost 2044.16 billion

We plot two color maps of the Richness Index (six regions) in 2025: the rst under the current water policy, and the second under the new water strategy.

(a) under current policy

(b) Under the new water strategy

Region 1 2 3 4 R (under new strategy) 200 188 200 203 standard deviation: 5.3541
Figure 11: Richness of water in 2025

5 201

6 200

Conclusion: From Figure 11 we can see the improvement that Richness Index R distribute more evenly, with higher values in Region 2 and 3 than before. The total cost of the strategy is about 2044.16 billion dollar.

6 Evaluation of Implications
6.1 Economies
Total Cost and GDP From the previous analysis we can gure out the total GDP from 2013 to 2025 of China is about 162684.63 billion dollar. The total cost of our water stategy is 2044.16 billion dollar, which is 1.26 % of the total GDP of this period. Meanwhile, the cost of water construction is 0.66 % of the total GDP, which is a bit lower than the best value of 0.79%~0.84% [18]. Therefore, the government can spend more money on the practical plan.

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Economic Growth and Domestic Demand The South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China has invested 74.12 billion dollar (price of 2000) in recent years, raising the growth rate of GDP by 0.12 % yearly [19]. The investment of the water strategy proposed in this paper is more than 10 times, and we are eager to see its stimulation on the economy of China. Empirical analysis shows that 40 % of investment will turn into consumption, which means this strategy may probably stimulate about 817.66 billion dollar of the domestic demand. Employment The water strategy can provide people with more oppotunities of employment in the projects of construction, which helps to improve the condition of employment in the country.

6.2 Physical Health and Living Conditions

Transfer Project, Moving House? In the water transfer project, the construction of reservoirs usually compel the local people to leave their hometown. Because of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, more than 0.44 million people have been forced to move [20], and our water strategy will also cause this problem (or even worse). But transfer is a major and effective way to alleviate the shortage of water, and it would keep on working for people in need. The government should consider the arrangement for those have to move away. More Drinkable Water by Desalinization Water produced by seawater desalinization can be drank directly, which alleviate the crisis of drinkable water in coastal regions. According to our prediction, in 2025 the desalinization will provide 2645.97 thousand m3 of water per day in China, supplying water for 33,000 people. Better Irrigation, More Income With the strategy to improve the irrigation mode, the water consumption in agriculture will reduce signicantly, which saves money for the farmers. The result indicates the total saving water is 94914.08 million m3 , which saves about 9151.7 million dollar (12.3 dollar for each farmer). Pollution Control Brings Healthy Life Currently, China is faced with severe pollution of water: 78 % of the city reaches and 50 % of ground water is polluted [21]. Through the optimal water strategy, more wastewater plants will provide more clean water, which is good for our health.

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6.3 Environment
According to our water strategy, in 2025 the proportion of water use should be (each region respectively): 31.3%, 72.3%, 22.8%, 19.2%, 9.1% and 15.4%. Five of them are lower than 40%, which indicates that these regions do not have excessive usage and this would help in environmental protection. However, Region 2 (North China) reaches a risky value of 72.3% and it may cause destruction of ecosystem. So we need to pay attention to this in future improvement of the strategy. As for the utilization rate in agriculture, the average value of six regions will reach 50.25% in 2025, which is close to our expectation (60%).

7 Strengths and Weaknesses

Strenghs:
1. We use a system model to analyze the change of water resources, which helps to better understand the relevant factors. 2. We consider the emergency water use and provide enough water reserves in the plan. This is important when dealing with unusual events. 3. In our strategy, the four aspects (transfer and storage, desalinization, pollution control and agriculture use) are carefully discussed; a comprehensive optimization model is built to combine them together, and we solve it to nd the best strategy. 4. Our methods can be generalized to analyze the inner provinces of each region.

Weaknesses
1. We did not consider the inuence of topography and river trends in water transfer. For simplicity, we did not take construction expenses (such as transport channels) into account. 2. Each of the six regions is relatively large, and the macroscopic analysis does not include detailed plan inside a region. 3. We ignore the variance of exchange rate and price, meanwhile assuming GDP to grow steadily. Actually, these factors may have great impact on the calculation of cost. 4. The data we used should be more adequate. Some statistical work of 2012 has not yet been nished. 5. Our strategy lacks public advertisements of saving water.

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8 Future Works
A more detailed water strategy is needed for inner provinces of each region (such as the transfer among provinces). The river orientation should be analyzed in water transfer project. The orientation of transfer should accordant with that of the river. Consideration of the possible variance of price from 2013 to 2025 can enhance robustness of the model. Climate changes should be an important concern, especially the inuence of precipitation. Advertising work of water conservation should be concerned.

9 A Position Paper of 2025 Water Strategy

Dear Sir, We are honored to write to you with our key ndings in the 2025 China water strategy, a recent study of us. A fact is that growing population and the trend of economic development are calling for challenges in water management and conservation of our country. As a water-shortage nation, China has been struggling for the improvement of water condition for decades. In recent years, our government has achieved in alleviating the shortage in some provinces, but the shortage still exists through the country. As the saying goes, get ready for rainy days. At the begining of a new year 2013, we are planning for an effective water strategy. Now we will present the core of our strategy in four parts. Water condition under current policy For comparison, we rst tried to gure out what may happen if we maintain the current water policy till 2025. After analysis and proper assumptions, we nd that in 2025 two of the six regions in China (North China and Central China) will suffer from water shortage. This conrms us that a new, effective water strategy is needed. Water transfer plan Region 2 (North China) and Region 3 (Central China) are in great need of transfer-in water. According to our calculation, an optimal plan in 2025 is: Region 2 transfer-in: 180527.88 million m3 . 78737.56 million from Northeast region, and 101790.31 million from Tibet and Sinkiang. Region 3 transfer-in: 110208.44 million m3 . 33504.23 million from Southwest region, and 76704.20 million from South region.

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Desalinization plan As for seawater desalinization, we recommand that the government should keep on supporting the projects on desalinization as recent years. In other words, we need to increase the production by desalinization yearly. In the result of our model, the water production by desalinization in 2025 should be: 818 million m3 in North China region, and 147.7 million m3 in Central China region. Pollution and agriculture Pollution is a severe problem of the water condition in China. According to our calculation, we should build 787 wastewater plant nationwide by 2025 to control the pollution. Agricultural consumption is the main demand of water (70% of the total consumption), so it is essential to do something in saving agricultural water. The key point is to improve irrigation utilization rate of water. Our suggestion is: to take the irrigation mode of Israel as the standard, and gradually change the irrigating mode from ooding to micro-irrigation and moving irrigation. Great effect will be seen if we keep on this strategy. In total, the cost of this water strategy is 2044.16 billion dollars, which is about 1.26% of the total GDP from 2013 to 2025 of China. The result implies a good prospect of the strategy. We hope our ndings to be helpful to you. Best wishes for the water strategy of China!

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References
[1] Li Yuanyuan, Water Development and Management Strategy of China, http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/APCITY/UNPAN026604.pdf [2] Water Resource of China, http://www.china.com.cn/node_7064072/content_19634796.htm [3] Water resources of the Peoples Republic of China, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_resources_of_the_Peoples_Republic_of_China#cite_noteFAO-1 [4] Quanfa Zhang, The South-to-North Water Transfer Project of China: Environmental Implications and Monitoring Stategy, Journal of The American Water Resources Accociation, Vol. 45, No. 5, October 2009. [5] Ministry of Construction of the Peoples Republic of China, The standard of water quantity for citys residential use, GB/T 50331-2002, http://scl.yljy.cn/index.php/iss/les/download/949 [6] National Bureau of Statistics of China, http://www.stats.gov.cn/ [7] The Ministry of Water Resources of the Peoples Republic of China, http://www.mwr.gov.cn/ [8] Liping Pan, Lulong Zhang, Another Large-Scale Reservoir in Shaoxing, Shaoxing Daily, March 1st, 2009, http://epaper.shaoxing.com.cn/sxrb/html/2009-03/01/content_220015.htm [9] South-to-North Water Transfer, http://baike.baidu.com/view/26518.htm [10] Wang Sheng-hui, Zhao He-li, Development Environment and Market Prospect for the Seawater Desalinization Industry in China, MARINE ECONOMY, Vol.2 No.3, Page 18, Jun. 2012. [11] Guoling Ruan, The Technique and Industry of Seawater Desalinization in China, http://wenku.baidu.com/view/8c2d3a8102d276a200292e1b.html [12] http://www.jsgg.com.cn/Index/Display.asp?NewsID=10293 [13] http://wenku.baidu.com/view/10db2e4ef7ec4afe04a1df27.html [14] http://www.aquasmart.cn/news/irrigation/scdt/37165_2.html [15] Analysis of South-to-North Water Transfer Project, http://wenku.baidu.com/view/89dfbbd3240c844769eaeebe.html [16] Micro-Irrigation Techniques, http://58.30.20.123/jpkc/ysm/doc/jc/wgjis.htm [17] Area of Cultivated Land at Year-end by Region (2008), http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2011/html/M1303c.xls [18] http://money.163.com/10/1207/09/6N9T0DFE00251M00.html [19] http://www.dss.gov.cn/Article_Print.asp?ArticleID=87786 [20] http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2009-12/09/content_12618463.htm [21] http://wenku.baidu.com/view/178271738e9951e79b8927f3

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Appendices
(MATLAB Script) 1. Draw the map of China
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

global h; plot(province.long,province.lat,color,[0 0 0]); hold on; plot(border.long,border.lat,color,[0 0 0],linewidth,1.5); h=plot(NaN,NaN,b-,linewidth,1); plot([city(2:end).long],[city(2:end).lat],o,markersize,3,... markeredgecolor,b,markerfacecolor,g); plot(city(1).long,city(1).lat,p,markersize,5,... markeredgecolor,r,markerfacecolor,g); axis([70 140 15 55]);

2. Logistic model
1 2

function f=logisticmodel(a,t) f=a(1)./(1+(a(1)/128.43-1)*exp(-(t-1997)*a(2)));

3. Predict the population

1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

x=1997:2011; y=[12843 12919 12983 13031 13073 13094 13214 13257 13288 13307 13427 13448]; y=y*10000; y=y./1000000; plot(x,y,*r); a0=[800,0.001]; a=lsqcurvefit(logisticmodel,a0,x,y); xi=1997:2025; yi=logisticmodel(a,xi); hold on plot(xi,yi,-b) a legend(history population,fitting population) hold off

13109

13127

13143

4. Predict the original water supply Sorigin

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2 3

4 5

6 7

8 9

10 11

12 13

14 15

16 17

18 19

20 21

22 23

24 25

26 27

28 29

30 31

32

pre_population=[138.1248643 427.7512343 442.3280157 199.3658669 196.0446796 34.6904843]; pre_population=pre_population.*1000000; pre_GDP=[1522500000000.00 4032500000000.00 4682500000000.00 1793750000000.00 1122750000000.00 215575000000.00 ]; pre_water=zeros(1,6); one_water=[619.49 624 620 608 596 556 548 558.6 569.4 600.2 605 613.7 643.8 665.5 702.9]; one_water=one_water*100000000; two_water=[1163.39 1102.5 1130 1110.5 1091 1095 967.5 920.3 1032.6 1083.1 1043.4 1061.3 1075.7 1080.2 1102.5]; two_water=two_water*100000000; three_water=[2065.12 1946.5 2007 2027 2047 1988 1950.5 1993.6 2114.2 2180.3 2216.8 2257.1 2290.4 2302.7 2339]; three_water=three_water*100000000; four_water=[834.09 837 840 839.5 839 851 840 862.3 873.6 878.9 879.9 881.2 876.8 883.5 876.8]; four_water=four_water*100000000; five_water=[376.83 390 410 411.5 413 422 411 413.2 426.7 430 338 455.4 442.5 450.5 453.9]; five_water=five_water*100000000; six_water=[506.2 536 584 583.5 583 575 603 599.7 616.6 622 626.9 641.3 636.2 639.5 631.6]; six_water=six_water*100000000; one_population=[12843 12919 12983 13031 13073 13094 13109 13127 13143 13214 13257 13288 13307 13427 13448]; one_population=one_population*10000; two_population=[36481 36750 37008 37488 37751 37993 38215 38470 38325 38575 38786 39125 39433 39950 40179]; two_population=two_population*10000; three_population=[38937 39185 39416 39854 40107 40296 40614 40865 40153 40387 40664 40915 41142 42028 42239]; three_population=three_population*10000; four_population=[12427 12571 12745 13918 13367 13484 13622 14011 14682 14859 15062 15214 15358 15920 16027]; four_population=four_population*10000; five_population=[19172 19355 19527 19232 19823 19950 20076 20166 19190 19217 19219 19313 19413 19010 19069]; five_population=five_population*10000; six_population=[2462 2502 2540 2705 2662 2701 2738 2776 2830 2879 2931 2972 3006 3049 3080]; six_population=six_population*10000; one_GDP=[8739.95 9464.64 10006.86 11144.26 12172.35 13320.81 15050.16 17833.86 20867.62 24513.17 28332 35956.6 41189 48878 59306.57]; one_GDP=one_GDP*100000000./6.2270; two_GDP=[21531.98 23202.35 24599.77 27440.84 30337.08 33651.4 39080.41 48284.07 59692.21 69937.17 80374 100324.4 109452.49 130338 154633.59]; two_GDP=two_GDP*100000000./6.2270;

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33

34 35

36 37

38 39

40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78

three_GDP=[28507.52 30778.87 32704.22 36099.8 39575.67 43854.67 49977.18 59991.23 68931.92 80737.88 91515 114889.27 126859.04 152434 183133.75]; three_GDP=three_GDP*100000000./6.2270; four_GDP=[9740.57 10261.08 10888.81 12230.85 13424.86 14829.22 16881.44 20150.22 26668.18 31823.42 36370 44333.58 48903.79 56978 66913.23]; four_GDP=four_GDP*100000000./6.2270; five_GDP=[7107.42 7645.3 7958.92 8548.21 9331.14 10263.78 11509.52 13757.38 15764.2 18470.19 20398 26654.4 30733.3 37064 45490.6]; five_GDP=five_GDP*100000000./6.2270; six_GDP=[1329.17 1428.01 1512.25 1745.41 1925.16 2100.81 2449.75 2868.73 3473.6 3994.25 4337 5555.41 5715 6798 8715.09]; six_GDP=six_GDP*100000000./6.2270; t=1997:2011; plot(one_population,one_water,*) xlabel(population); ylabel(water used); figure plot(one_GDP,one_water,*); xlabel(GDP); ylabel(water used); X1=[ones(15,1) one_population one_GDP]; b1=regress(one_water,X1); figure y=b1(1)+b1(2)*one_population+b1(3)*one_GDP; plot(t,y,*,t,one_water,+) pre_water(1)=b1(1)+b1(2)*pre_population(1)+b1(3)*pre_GDP(1); legend(history water used,fitted water used); figure plot(two_population,two_water,*) xlabel(population); ylabel(water used); figure plot(two_GDP,two_water,*); xlabel(GDP); ylabel(water used); X2=[ones(15,1) two_population two_GDP]; b2=regress(two_water,X2); figure y=b2(1)+b2(2)*two_population+b2(3)*two_GDP; plot(t,y,*,t,two_water,+) pre_water(2)=b2(1)+b2(2)*pre_population(2)+b2(3)*pre_GDP(2); legend(history water used,fitted water used); figure plot(three_population,three_water,*) xlabel(population); ylabel(water used); figure plot(three_GDP,three_water,*);

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79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130

xlabel(GDP); ylabel(water used); X3=[ones(15,1) three_population three_GDP]; b3=regress(three_water,X3); figure y=b3(1)+b3(2)*three_population+b3(3)*three_GDP; plot(t,y,*,t,three_water,+) pre_water(3)=b3(1)+b3(2)*pre_population(3)+b3(3)*pre_GDP(3); legend(history water used,fitted water used); figure plot(four_population,four_water,*) xlabel(population); ylabel(water used); figure plot(four_GDP,four_water,*); xlabel(GDP); ylabel(water used); X4=[ones(15,1) four_population four_GDP]; b4=regress(four_water,X4); figure y=b4(1)+b4(2)*four_population+b4(3)*four_GDP; plot(t,y,*,t,four_water,+) pre_water(4)=b4(1)+b4(2)*pre_population(4)+b4(3)*pre_GDP(4); legend(history water used,fitted water used); figure plot(five_population,five_water,*) xlabel(population); ylabel(water used); figure plot(five_GDP,five_water,*); xlabel(GDP); ylabel(water used); X5=[ones(15,1) five_population five_GDP]; b5=regress(five_water,X5); figure y=b5(1)+b5(2)*five_population+b5(3)*five_GDP; plot(t,y,*,t,five_water,+) pre_water(5)=b5(1)+b5(2)*pre_population(5)+b5(3)*pre_GDP(5); legend(history water used,fitted water used); figure plot(six_population,six_water,*) xlabel(population); ylabel(water used); figure plot(six_GDP,six_water,*); xlabel(GDP); ylabel(water used); X6=[ones(15,1) six_population six_GDP]; b6=regress(six_water,X6); figure y=b6(1)+b6(2)*six_population+b6(3)*six_GDP; plot(t,y,*,t,six_water,+)

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131 132 133

pre_water(6)=b6(1)+b6(2)*pre_population(6)+b6(3)*pre_GDP(6); legend(history water used,fitted water used); pre_water

5. Data of water, population and GDP

1 2

% data of water , population and GDP

3 4

5 6

7 8

9 10

11 12

13 14

15 16

17 18

19 20

21 22

23 24

25 26

27 28

one_water=[619.49 624 620 608 596 556 548 558.6 569.4 600.2 605 613.7 643.8 665.5 702.9]; one_water=one_water*100000000; two_water=[1163.39 1102.5 1130 1110.5 1091 1095 967.5 920.3 1032.6 1083.1 1043.4 1061.3 1075.7 1080.2 1102.5]; two_water=two_water*100000000; three_water=[2065.12 1946.5 2007 2027 2047 1988 1950.5 1993.6 2114.2 2180.3 2216.8 2257.1 2290.4 2302.7 2339]; three_water=three_water*100000000; four_water=[834.09 837 840 839.5 839 851 840 862.3 873.6 878.9 879.9 881.2 876.8 883.5 876.8]; four_water=four_water*100000000; five_water=[376.83 390 410 411.5 413 422 411 413.2 426.7 430 338 455.4 442.5 450.5 453.9]; five_water=five_water*100000000; six_water=[506.2 536 584 583.5 583 575 603 599.7 616.6 622 626.9 641.3 636.2 639.5 631.6]; six_water=six_water*100000000; one_population=[12843 12919 12983 13031 13073 13094 13109 13127 13143 13214 13257 13288 13307 13427 13448]; one_population=one_population*10000; two_population=[36481 36750 37008 37488 37751 37993 38215 38470 38325 38575 38786 39125 39433 39950 40179]; two_population=two_population*10000; three_population=[38937 39185 39416 39854 40107 40296 40614 40865 40153 40387 40664 40915 41142 42028 42239]; three_population=three_population*10000; four_population=[12427 12571 12745 13918 13367 13484 13622 14011 14682 14859 15062 15214 15358 15920 16027]; four_population=four_population*10000; five_population=[19172 19355 19527 19232 19823 19950 20076 20166 19190 19217 19219 19313 19413 19010 19069]; five_population=five_population*10000; six_population=[2462 2502 2540 2705 2662 2701 2738 2776 2830 2879 2931 2972 3006 3049 3080]; six_population=six_population*10000; one_GDP=[8739.95 9464.64 10006.86 11144.26 12172.35 13320.81 15050.16 17833.86 20867.62 24513.17 28332 35956.6 41189 48878 59306.57]; one_GDP=one_GDP*100000000./6.2270; two_GDP=[21531.98 23202.35 24599.77 27440.84 30337.08 33651.4 39080.41 48284.07 59692.21 69937.17 80374 100324.4 109452.49 130338 154633.59];

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29 30

31 32

33 34

35 36

37 38

two_GDP=two_GDP*100000000./6.2270; three_GDP=[28507.52 30778.87 32704.22 36099.8 39575.67 43854.67 49977.18 59991.23 68931.92 80737.88 91515 114889.27 126859.04 152434 183133.75]; three_GDP=three_GDP*100000000./6.2270; four_GDP=[9740.57 10261.08 10888.81 12230.85 13424.86 14829.22 16881.44 20150.22 26668.18 31823.42 36370 44333.58 48903.79 56978 66913.23]; four_GDP=four_GDP*100000000./6.2270; five_GDP=[7107.42 7645.3 7958.92 8548.21 9331.14 10263.78 11509.52 13757.38 15764.2 18470.19 20398 26654.4 30733.3 37064 45490.6]; five_GDP=five_GDP*100000000./6.2270; six_GDP=[1329.17 1428.01 1512.25 1745.41 1925.16 2100.81 2449.75 2868.73 3473.6 3994.25 4337 5555.41 5715 6798 8715.09]; six_GDP=six_GDP*100000000./6.2270; t=1997:2011;

6. Solution of the optimization model

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function f=fun(x) f1=(2.5*(x(4)+x(5)+x(6)+x(7)-x(1)-x(8))*1000000+11.62*floor((x(4)+x(5)+x(6)+x (7)-x(1)-x(8))/100)*100000000+24.99*((x(4)+x(5)+x(6)+x(7)-x(1)-x(8))*1000000floor((x(4)+x(5)+x(6)+x(7)-x(1)-x(8))/100000000)*100000000))/6.227; f2=0.256*2526.96*1000000000*x(2)*1000000/(267800000000*0.7); f3=1.45*100000000*ceil(x(3)*1000000/(1.83*100000000)); f4=0.256*1874.07*1000000000*x(4)*1000000/(52390000000*0.7); f5=1.45*100000000*ceil(x(5)*1000000/(1.83*100000000)); f6=0.256*777.57*1000000000*x(6)*1000000/(94750000000*0.7); f7=1.45*100000000*ceil(x(7)*1000000/(1.83*100000000)); f=f1+f2+f3+f4+f5+f6+f7; A=[1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1]; b=-115410; lb=[0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0]; ub=[10 50502 80340 9879.7 15717 17868 28425 10]; options=gaoptimset(PopulationSize,100,EliteCount,10,CrossoverFraction ,0.75,Generation,500,StallGenLimit,500,TolFun,1e-100,PlotFcns,{ @gaplotbestf,@gaplot-bestindiv}); [x_best,fval]=ga(@fun,8,A,b,[],[],lb,ub,[],options) function f=fun1(x) f1=(2.5*(x(4)+x(5)+x(6)+x(7)-x(1)-x(8))*1000000+11.62*floor((x(4)+x(5)+x(6)+x (7)-x(1)-x(8))/100)*100000000+24.99*((x(4)+x(5)+x(6)+x(7)-x(1)-x(8))*1000000floor((x(4)+x(5)+x(6)+x(7)-x(1)-x(8))/100000000)*100000000))/6.227; f2=0.256*3630.38*1000000000*x(2)*1000000/(106110000000*0.7); f3=1.45*100000000*ceil(x(3)*1000000/(1.83*100000000)); f4=0.256*2859.27*1000000000*x(4)*1000000/(76710000000*0.7); f5=1.45*100000000*ceil(x(5)*1000000/(1.83*100000000)); f6=0.256*502.89*1000000000*x(6)*1000000/(69770000000*0.7); f7=1.45*100000000*ceil(x(7)*1000000/(1.83*100000000));

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f=f1+f2+f3+f4+f5+f6+f7; A=[1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1]; b=-135480; lb=[0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0]; ub=[10 20010 31833 14466 23013 13157 20931 10]; options=gaoptimset(PopulationSize,100,EliteCount,10,CrossoverFraction ,0.75,Generation,500,StallGenLimit,500,TolFun,1e-100,PlotFcns,{ @gaplotbestf,@gaplot-bestindiv}); [x_best,fval]=ga(@fun1,8,A,b,[],[],lb,ub,[],options)

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