MANGATAREM

SAN CLEMENTE

CAMILING RAMOS PANIQUI

CANDELARIA PURA GUIMBA VICTORIA

GERONA STA. IGNACIA

MAYANTOC MASINLOC

ZARAGOSA

ALIAGA TARLAC PALAUIG LA PAZ ZARAGOZA STA. ROSA

IBA

CAPAS CONCEPCION

JAEN

SAN ANTONIO BOTOLAN BAMBAN

MAGALANG

CABIAO

MABALACAT

1991 Pinatubo Eruption

(Case 1)
LEGEND:
PYROCLASTIC FLOW DEPOSIT 1991 LAHAR 1992 LAHAR 1993 LAHAR

CABANGAN

ARAYAT ANGELES MEXICO STA. ANA CANDABA

SAN FELIPE PORAC SAN FERNANDO SAN LUIS

BACOLOR SAN NARCISO STA. RITA STO. TOMAS SAN MARCELINO CASTILLEJOS FLORIDABLANCA GUAGUA MINALIN

APALIT

BALIUAG

LAHAR PRONE AREA FLOOD PRONE AREA AREA AT RISK DUE TO AVULSION

SAN ANTONIO LUBAO

MACABEBE CALUMPIT SUBIC OLONGAPO DINALUPIHAN

PULILAN

PLARIDEL

LAKE, SEA

SASMUAN HERMOSA

MASANTOL HAGONOY MALOLOS

GUIGUINTO

ORANI
0

PAOMBONG
10km

BULACAN SAMAL MORONG

GRAPHIC SCALE

 1.20 million people affected by eruption and subsequent lahars 200,000 people entered evacuation centers (ECs) In May 1993, 72,335 were still residing in 54 ECs 38,000 others had relocated in official settlement sites 21 municipalities remained to be high risk from lahars over the next 5-10 years

PHUMP Master Plan, Phase 1

MANGATAREM SAN CLEMENTE CAMILING RAMOS PANIQUI CANDELARIA PURA GUIMBA VICTORIA GERONA STA. IGNACIA

MAYANTOC MASINLOC

ZARAGOSA

ALIAGA TARLAC PALAUIG LA PAZ ZARAGOZA STA. ROSA

IBA

CAPAS CONCEPCION

JAEN

SAN ANTONIO BOTOLAN BAMBAN

MAGALANG

CABIAO

MABALACAT ARAYAT ANGELES MEXICO STA. ANA CANDABA SAN FELIPE PORAC SAN FERNANDO SAN LUIS

CABANGAN

LEGEND:
PYROCLASTIC FLOW DEPOSIT 1991 LAHAR 1992 LAHAR 1993 LAHAR

BACOLOR SAN NARCISO STA. RITA STO. TOMAS SAN MARCELINO CASTILLEJOS FLORIDABLANCA GUAGUA MINALIN

APALIT

BALIUAG

LAHAR PRONE AREA FLOOD PRONE AREA AREA AT RISK DUE TO AVULSION

SAN ANTONIO LUBAO

MACABEBE CALUMPIT SUBIC OLONGAPO DINALUPIHAN

PULILAN

PLARIDEL

LAKE, SEA

SASMUAN HERMOSA

MASANTOL HAGONOY MALOLOS

GUIGUINTO

ORANI
0

PAOMBONG
10km

BULACAN SAMAL MORONG

GRAPHIC SCALE

PHUMP - Pinatubo Hazard Urgent Mitigation Project

Completed 26Jul2001 P2.303 Billion cost Restored reliability of Mac Arthur Highway (+Mabalacat/Bamban Bridges) Restored Concepcion by-pass/alternate road (+San Francisco Bridge) Contained lahar deposition in Sacobia-Bamban River

PHUMP Master Plan, Phase 2

MANGATAREM SAN CLEMENTE CAMILING RAMOS PANIQUI CANDELARIA PURA GUIMBA VICTORIA GERONA STA. IGNACIA

MAYANTOC MASINLOC

ZARAGOSA

ALIAGA TARLAC PALAUIG LA PAZ ZARAGOZA STA. ROSA

IBA

CAPAS CONCEPCION

JAEN

SAN ANTONIO BOTOLAN BAMBAN

MAGALANG

CABIAO

MABALACAT ARAYAT ANGELES MEXICO STA. ANA CANDABA SAN FELIPE PORAC SAN FERNANDO SAN LUIS

CABANGAN

LEGEND:
PYROCLASTIC FLOW DEPOSIT 1991 LAHAR 1992 LAHAR 1993 LAHAR

BACOLOR SAN NARCISO STA. RITA STO. TOMAS SAN MARCELINO CASTILLEJOS FLORIDABLANCA GUAGUA MINALIN

APALIT

BALIUAG

LAHAR PRONE AREA FLOOD PRONE AREA AREA AT RISK DUE TO AVULSION

SAN ANTONIO LUBAO

MACABEBE CALUMPIT SUBIC OLONGAPO DINALUPIHAN

PULILAN

PLARIDEL

LAKE, SEA

SASMUAN HERMOSA

MASANTOL HAGONOY MALOLOS

GUIGUINTO

ORANI
0

PAOMBONG
10km

BULACAN SAMAL MORONG

GRAPHIC SCALE

Completed March 2006 Cost of P4.524 Billion Rehabilitated & fortified megadike Widened Gapan-San Fernando-Olongapo (GSO) Road Reconstructed Mancatian Bridge across Megadike w/c re-established the Dinalupihan-Angeles Road Pilot dredged Pasac Delta & Third River areas

PHUMP, Phase 3 (Flood/Mudflow Control Works for Porac-Gumain River in Pasac Delta & San Fernando City (P4.132 billion)
MANGATAREM SAN CLEMENTE CAMILING RAMOS PANIQUI CANDELARIA PURA GUIMBA VICTORIA

GERONA STA. IGNACIA

MAYANTOC MASINLOC

ZARAGOSA

ALIAGA TARLAC PALAUIG LA PAZ ZARAGOZA STA. ROSA

IBA

CAPAS CONCEPCION

JAEN

SAN ANTONIO BOTOLAN BAMBAN

MAGALANG

CABIAO

MABALACAT ARAYAT ANGELES MEXICO STA. ANA CANDABA SAN FELIPE PORAC SAN FERNANDO SAN LUIS

CABANGAN

LEGEND:
PYROCLASTIC FLOW DEPOSIT 1991 LAHAR 1992 LAHAR 1993 LAHAR

BACOLOR SAN NARCISO STA. RITA STO. TOMAS SAN MARCELINO CASTILLEJOS FLORIDABLANCA GUAGUA MINALIN

APALIT

BALIUAG

LAHAR PRONE AREA FLOOD PRONE AREA AREA AT RISK DUE TO AVULSION

SAN ANTONIO LUBAO

MACABEBE CALUMPIT SUBIC OLONGAPO DINALUPIHAN

PULILAN

PLARIDEL

LAKE, SEA

SASMUAN HERMOSA

MASANTOL HAGONOY MALOLOS

GUIGUINTO

ORANI
0

PAOMBONG
10km

BULACAN SAMAL MORONG

GRAPHIC SCALE

Structural Measures Flood damage mitigation, channel improvement in Porac-Gumain River Drainage efficiency improvement in Pasac Delta & San Fernando River (link up w/ Third River) Non-structural Measures Study on extent of watershed degradation, its effects & causes Integrated plan for comprehensive nonstructural measures land use plan formulation rehabilitation options in upper Porac-Gumain River basins flood management plan & flood forecasting and warning system institutional set-up for sustainable O&M of PHUMP 2 & 3 works identifying other priority non-engineering subprojects`

FLOODING SITUATION DUE TO TYPHOON GLORIA

(JULY 2002) Place: Mun. Town Hall, Guagua Depth: 1.2m (max.) Duration: (Still Inundated, as of July 19)

Place: Sto. Tomas, Lubao Depth: 0.6m (ave.) Duration: (Still Inundated, as of July 19)

Place: Mun. Town Hall, Sasmuan

Depth: 1.0m (max.) Duration: (Still Inundated, as of July 19)

Inundation Map of City of San Fernando

0.1 - 0.30 M 1 day 1 Week

0.3 - 0.60 M 1 Wk to 1-Mon.

0.6 M Mon.

0 0.50 2.0 km.

1.0

ESTIMATED FLOOD DAMAGES IN SURVEY AREA

(NORTH AND SOUTH BLOCK ) LAND USE CLASS INUNDATION DEPTH (m) RESIDENTIAL 0.1-0.3m 0.3-0.6m > 0.6m km2 COMMERCIAL 0.1-0.3m 0.3-0.6m > 0.6m km2 AGRICULTURAL 0.1-0.3m 0.3-0.6m > 0.6m km2 INSTITUTIONAL 0.1-0.3m 0.3-0.6m > 0.6m km2 INDUSTRIAL 0.1-0.3m 0.3-0.6m > 0.6m 0.1-0.3m 0.3-0.6m > 0.6m 0.04 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.1 0.09 0 1.38 0.75 0.22 1.09 1.01 0 AREA ESTIMATED NO. OF UNITS (500m2/Unit) 3.83 5.02 2.44 7660 10040 4880 (1,000m2/Unit) 1090 1010 0 AVERAGE ASSESS VALUE * 750,000/UNIT 5,745,000,000 7,530,000,000 3,660,000,000 1,500,000/UNIT 1,635,000,000 1,515,000,000 0 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.05 0 0 0 FACTOR ESTIMATED FLOOD DAMAGE km2 (Pesos) 143,625,000 225,900,000 128,100,000 40,875,000 45,450,000 0 672,750 438,750 150,150 2,000,000 2,250,000 0 320,000 0 0 0 0 0 589,781,650

(HECTARE) 195,000/HECTARE 138 26,910,000 75 14,625,000 22 4,290,000 (3,000m2/Unit) 33 30 0 (5,000m2/Unit) 8 0 0 0 0 0 3,000,000/UNIT 100,000,000 90,000,000 0 2,000,000/UNIT 16,000,000 0 0

OPEN SPACE TOTAL

* See Angeles 0 0 Values

0

Source: Factor applied from the Study on Flood Control and Drainage Project in Metro Manila, Volume 1 Main Report, 1990, JICA

Objectives
The project is part of the over-all engineering intervention works whose ultimate aim is to rehabilitate affected areas devastated by the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, restore conditions at least to pre-eruption levels, and provide the necessary facilities to protect lives, properties, settlements, against lahar deposition and or flooding. Its objective/purpose is to improve drainage, reduce extent, & minimize the duration of flooding in Pasac Delta and Porac-Gumain river influence areas in the Province of Pampanga. Specifically, the project aims to: a) Reduce inundation depth from 1.5 1.8 meters to 0.60 0.90 meters in the affected areas during 20-year flood event; and b) Shorten inundation time from 45 days to 10 days, and 10 days to 2-3 days during 20-year and 2-year flood event, respectively.
Flooding was reduced in terms of area covered, duration and depth as follows 2-year flood Area (ha) Without Project With Project 47,100.00 29,000.00 Days 9 2 Depth 0.3-0.4 0.1-0.2 5-year flood Area (ha) 49,600.00 35,500.00 Days 18 4 Depth 0.6-0.3 0.2-.03 20-year flood Area (ha) 51,900.00 46,200.00 Days 45 10 Depth 1.5-1.8 0.6-0.9

PHUMP Phase III Benefit Estimates

The following direct damages from flooding & lahar deposition are avoided:

a)

Properties

: P 198.96 M/Yr P 26.02 M/Yr - Roads & bridges P 119.68 M/Yr - Residential houses P 53.26 M/Yr - Commercial bldgs & establishments

b)

Agri-production : P 411.82 M/Yr. P 136.08 M/Yr - rice or 13,608 ton (P 10.0/kg raw rice/paddy) P 275.74 M/Yr - fish or 4,596 ton (P 60.00/kg)

c)

Income losses : P 1,127.07 M/Yr (35 days) or P 24,381 / HH / year or P 4,583 / person / year

PHUMP Phase III Economic Evaluation

1. BASE CASE (a)

Project Cost Investment cost : : : PhP 4,132 Mil. PhP 1,670 Mil. PhP 198 Mil. PhP 412 Mil. PhP 1,127 Mil. PhP 36 Mil. 31.84%

(b) Project Benefits (per year) Avoided damage to property

Avoided damage to agricultural production : Avoided losses to livelihood : O/M cost per year : :

(c)

(d) Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) 2. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Case 1 Indicator 2 3 4 5 6

Base

EIRR (%)Cost 28.81 Case 28.49 26.47 +10% 26.95 25.88 22.35

Increase

Investment costs increase by 10% Benefits decrease by 10% +10%C/ Case 1 plus Case 2 +20% -10%costs increase -20% by 20% 10%B Investment Benefits decrease by 20% Case 4 plus Case 5

Remarks Benefit Decrease

Combination +20%C/ 20%B

IRR (%)
NPV (15%) B/C

31.84
3,245.8 4.97

29.64
3,025.2 4.52

27.72
2,804.6 4.14

29.31
2,678.5 4.45

26.64
2,111.2 3.94

27.23
2,457.9 4.05

23.02
1,669.9 3.28

Social and Environmental Evaluation

Resettlement : CP-2 CP-3a/3b CP-4 110 households (approx.) 40 households 40 households 30 households

Land Acquisition : Structural areas : 203 ha

Residential 1.0 ha Rice field 16.0 ha Fishpond 186.0 ha

Spoil disposal areas in construction stage : about 311 ha Possible free spoil site areas within the Mun. of Guagua, 125 has.(approx.)
Projected cost of ROW acquisition of about P 537 million is needed to undertake these activities. Acquisition of fishpond, rice field, and residential lots were estimated at P 100.00/m2, P 250.00/m2, and P 1,500.00/m2, respectively.

Affected Structures/Improvements

Estimated cost of residential structures ranges from PHP 4T/m2, PHP 6T/m2, PHP 7.5T/m2 and PHP 10T/m2.

Note: Cost of structures/improvements based on actual estimate. Valuation based on replacement cost method per Section 10, RA 8974 IRR

Table 5-14 Development Planning Framework (The Case of Flooding in Pampanga)

Devt Challenge Flooding aggravate d by the effects of the Pinatubo eruption along the influence areas of PoracGumain and San Fernando Rivers in Pampanga (refer to Table 5-7 for details) Objective/ Target Rehabilitate Reduce flood risks Pinatubo by implementing eruption measures to reduce affected extent & minimize areas, duration of flooding restore as follows: conditions to Porac-Gumain: at least the Reduce inundation pre-eruption depth from 1.5-1.8 levels, and meters to 0.60-0.90 institute meters during 20measures to year flood event; protect and shorten settlements, inundation time industrial from 45 days to 10 and other days, and 10 days socioto 2-3 days during economic 20-year and 2-year development flood event, against lahar respectively. deposition San Fernando: and flooding. Reduce inundation depth from 0.3-0.6 meters down to 0.1- 0.2 meters; shorten inundation time from 18 days down to 4 days Secure the reliability of the regions major arterial roads and other key infrastructure facilities. Goal Strategy / Policy Implement flood/mudflow control measures in order to (1) mitigate flood damages by channel improvement works in the Porac-Gumain River; (2) improve drainage efficiencies of river channel networks in the Pasac Delta, including the Fernando river & its efficient link up with the Third River. Plan out and Implement nonstructural measures and institutional capability building in order to complement and ensure effectiveness of the instituted structural measures Retrofit key roads and infrastructures corresponding to the worst case scenario. Program/Projects/ Activities Pinatubo Hazard Urgent Mitigation Project (PHUMP) - Phase III Part I: Flood/Mudflow Control Works Dredging/excavation of major (Pasac, Guagua & Dalan Bapor) rivers, 19.2 km in length River diversion of the lower Porac-Gumain River to Pampanga Bay, 18.7km in length (7.2km with dike & 11.5km without dike) Improvement of 6 local drainage channels (14.7 km) & partial relocation of 2 channels (4.5 km) Construction of new bridges and raising of key roads & bridges. Dredging, excavation, improvement & embankment protection of San Fernando River & tributaries (with upgrading of Panlumacan Bridge & approaches) Part II: Monitoring and Planning of Non-structural Measures and Institutional Capability Building (ICB) Formulation of comprehensive land use plan/s covering the entire watershed (with ROW acquisition & resettlement plan); Optimum rehabilitation options in the upstream stretch of Porac and Gumain river basins; Instituting flood forecasting and warning system (FFWS); Formulation of flood management plans of downstream LGUs; Formulation of development framework plan (ID institutional set-up and requirements); and Ensuring sustainable operation & maintenance of PHUMP II and III. Widening/Improvement of GSO Road & Emergency Dredging Project Widening/improvement of critical GSO Road sections; Raising of Sta. Cruz Bridge; and Dredging of critical waterways affecting GSO Road

Reconstructed hospital considering worst scenario flooding

LIVING WITH THE FLOODS

ADB-FAO Tonle Sap Environmental Management Project Kingdom of Cambodia Team Leader: E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.