Happy About - Knowing What To Expect in 2009

Happy About®
Knowing What to
Expect in 2009
Business, Electronic, Consumer
and Political Trends
By Mitchell Levy
with Vasu Shastry
20660 Stevens Creek Blvd.

Suite 210
Cupertino, CA 95014
Happy About® Knowing What to Expect in 2009:
Business, Electronic, Consumer and Political Trends
Copyright © 2009 by Happy About®
All rights reserved. No part of this book shall be reproduced, stored in
a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means electronic,
mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without written
permission from the publisher. No patent liability is assumed with
respect to the use of the information contained herein. Although every
precaution has been taken in the preparation of this book, the
publisher and author(s) assume no responsibility for errors or
omissions. Neither is any liability assumed for damages resulting from
the use of the information contained herein.
First Printing: January, 2009
Paperback ISBN: 978-1-60005-138-8 (1-60005-138-3)
Place of Publication: Silicon Valley, California, USA
Paperback Library of Congress Number:
eBook ISBN: 978-1-60005-139-5 (1-60005-139-1)
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cannot attest to the accuracy of this information. Use of a term in this
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Warning and Disclaimer

Every effort has been taken to make this book as complete and as
accurate as possible, but no warranty of fitness is implied. The
information provided is on an “as is” basis. The authors and the
publisher shall have neither liability nor responsibility to any person or
entity with respect to any loss or damages arising from the information
contained in this book.
Dedication
This book is dedicated to all those that have contributed to the top 10
predictions throughout the years and to those who are helping to
make Happy About® a reality.
Acknowledgment for the 2009 Contributors

• Alexander B. Kasdan, President, Convergence Capital Partners,
LLC
• Angelika Blendstrup, Founder & Principal, Blendstrup & Associates
• Ann H. McCormick, CEO & President, LearningFriends.com
• Anthony Migyanka, Managing Partner, Mobile Money Minute, LLC
• Anyck Turgeon, Chief Marketing and Strategy, Cross Roads
Systems
• Axel K. Kloth, Founder, CTO Parimics, Inc.
• Bob Beck, Owner, Winning in the 5th qtr Sales Builders
• Bob Klag, CEO, Westlake Realty Group Inc.
• Brandon J. Mendelson, Author of "Albany Times Union's Graduate
Student Survival"
• Brian Lawley, CEO, 280 Group, and Author of "Expert Product
Management"
• Cyril Rayan, President & CEO, Reliligence Inc. and Author of
"Moving From Vision to Reality"
• Daniel Meyerov, CEO and Co-Founder, OnlyBusiness.com
• Dave Muti, Author of "Mortgages: What You Need to Know"
• David Bookout, Founder, Effetti, Inc.
• David H Deans, Managing Director, GeoActive Group
• Dean Lane, Principal, Office of the CIO
• Don Gaspar, CTO, Yapstone, Inc.
• Frumi Rachal Barr, Advisor
• Grant Cardone, Entreprenuer and Author of "Sell to Survive"
• Dr. Gregory Alan. Bolcer, Serial Entrepreneur in Internet &
Security, Bolcer.org
• Hanoch McCarty, Director, Bestspeaker.com
• Hugh Simpson, Co-Founder, 7th Haven Development
• Ivan Temes, Author of "Care: You Have the Power!"
• Jack Yan, CEO, Jack Yan & Associates
• Jack Bass, AMP Program
• Jay Deragon, Social Media Strategist, The conversation Group and
Author of "The Relationship Economy"
• Jean Paul, Emeritus, IBM Research / U.C. Berkley
• Jennifer Vessels, CEO, Next Step
• Jennifer L Jacobson, Founder, Jacobson Communication
• Jeremy Gutsche, Founder, Trendhunter
• Jim Cates, President & Founder, LOBI Group, LLC and Author of
"Climbing The Ladder of Business Intelligence"
• Jim Terzian, Principal Consultant, The Terzian International Group
• Jim O'Toole, Distinguished Professor of Business Ethics,
University of Denver
• Joel Libava, President, Franchise Selection Specialists Inc.
• John Wilkerson, Executive Director, Bellwether Services
• Kay Koitzsch, Owner & COO, JBF Consignment Sales, LLC
• Kay Compton Logsdon, Director, The Food Channel
• Ken Brand, Sales Manager, Prudential Gary Greene, Realtors
• Love Goel, Chairman & CEO, Growth Ventures Group
• Marc Scheer, Author of "No Sucker Left Behind"
• Marian Salzman, Chief Marketing Officer & Trendspotter, Porter
Novelli
• Michael Bradley, Adviser, Iigroup
• Nancy Zucker, Founder & President, Nancy Zucker Associates
• Nicolas Soergel, CEO, T-Systems Japan K.K. & Author of "Happy
About an Extra Hour Every Day"
• Nirvikar Singh, Professor & Advisor, UCSC
• Pamela Springer, President & CEO, ECNext, Inc.
• Pat Sonti, President & CEO, Strategic Capital Investments LLC
• Peter Ostrow President & CEO Technical Communities, Inc.
• Phil Newbold, Director, RSM McGladrey, Inc.
• Philippe Lavie, President, KeyRoad Enterprises, LLC
• Phyllis Rockower, President & Founder, Real Estate Investors Club
• Punita Pandey, CEO, NetCustomer
• Ralph Marx, CEO, Advocate Systems, Inc.
• Rich Goldman, VP, Corp Marketing & Strategic Alliances,
Synopsys
• Robert (Bob) Hagerty, CEO & President, Polycom, Inc.
• Robert Laura, Financial Speaker, Robertlaura.com
• Roger Hardy, Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO, Coastal Contacts
• Sean McCauley, CEO, SMI, Inc. and Author, "DNA of the Young
Entrepreneur"
• Seshadri Sundararajan, COO, Real Soft
• Sheridan Tatsuno, Principal, Dreamscape Global
• Stephen Ibaraki, CIPS Fellow, NPA Distinguished Fellow
• Steve Brown, Author of "Jesus Drank, Judas Repented"
• Stewart Levine, Author of "Collaboration 2.0" and "Resolution
Works"
• Todd Rhoad, Managing Director, BT Consulting and Author of
"Blitz The Ladder"
• Tom Vanderwell, Mortgage Lender
• Tom Scarda, Franchise Consultant, FranChoice, Inc.
• Vanessa Horwell, Chief Visibility Officer, ThinkInk
• Vicki Kunkel, CEO, Vicki Kunkel International
• William W. McGinnis, Securities Expert, W. McGinnis Advisors,
LLC
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• The Successful Introvert:
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• Happy About Customer Service:
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• DNA of the Young Entrepreneur:
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C o n t e n t s
Part I This Year’s Predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
Chapter 1 2009 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Part II Why Should You Believe . . . . . . . . . . . .37
Chapter 2 Predictability in Previous Years . . . . . . . . . 39
Chapter 3 2008 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Chapter 4 2007 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Chapter 5 2006 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
Author About the Authors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
Your Book Create Thought Leadership for your Company . . . 213
Books Other Happy About Books . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .215
Happy About Knowing What to Expect in 2009 vii

viii Contents
Part I
This Year’s
Predictions
• Chapter 1: “2009 Predictions”
C h a p t e r
1 2009 Predictions
Looking at this year’s trends, there’s a lot of

pessimism. Continued recession (#2), decrease
in housing prices (#3) unemployment hitting 10%
(#4) and an increase in oil prices (#7). This leads
to an increase in SMEs (#5), increased utilization
of Web 2.0 technologies (#9) and a cultural
business revolution (#10). Most folks do not want
to make the same mistake that many folks made
in going from 2001 to 2002. We all assumed that
the rebound would happen quicker than what we
saw.
It is my hope that we’re wrong about Trend #1

and that the “Obama Effect” truly allows us to rise
out of the recession quicker than is predicted in
the pages ahead. Regardless of what happens,
reading the opinions of those in the following
pages will arm you with some great ideas of what
you can do to take advantage of it for yourself
and your business.
Happy About Knowing What to Expect in 2009 3

Top Ten Trends for 2009
1. Obama Brings a "Slight" Increase in
Optimism and Hope
2. Despite the Obama Effect, the U.S.
Economy Will Remain in Recession
3. Continued Decline in Real Estate Prices by
15-25%
4. Unemployment Becoming a Major Political /
Economic Issue Hitting 10%
5. Significant Increase in SMEs
6. China Closes the Gap on Becoming the
World's #1 Economic Power
7. Energy Prices Go Back Up
8. The Stock Market Continues to be an
"E-Ticket" Roller Coaster Ride
9. Web 2.0 Continues to Play an Integral Part
of our Future
10. Tougher Economic Times Drives a
Business Cultural Revolution
Bonus Trend: Potential Investment Opportunities
Trend 01: Obama Brings a

"Slight" Increase in Optimism
and Hope
Ann H. McCormick, "There will be a surge of hope around the world

PhD, when Obama takes office, so stock markets
Learningfriends.com
surge upward briefly then gradually climb as we
face the difficult challenges of the nation and
world."
4 Chapter 1: 2009 Predictions

Phil Newbold, "Obama mania will cause a stock market rush in
Director, the second half of 2009 that will based more on
Consulting and
Risk Management enthusiasm and exuberance rather than
Services fundamentals. Unfortunately, the Obama mania
bubble will burst in the Fall causing Americans to
again fear their financial future."
Jim Terzian, "The new administration will take over as the bills
Principal are coming due. Not only will it have lot to deal
Consultant, The
Terzian with a recession an order of magnitude greater
International than it would have been six years earlier, but the
Group economy and government President Obama will
have to face it with are crippled and over
burdened, severely reducing the effectiveness of
whatever is tried."
Jack Bass, The "Short-term predictions based on the anticipated

Apprentice 'Obama Stimulus'
Millionaire
Program,
amprogram.com 1. Federal reserve will continue to add liquidity
to the banking system and 'force banks to
lend more aggressively – both to
consumers and business.
2. The stimulus package will be at least $500
billion dollars
3. These measures will inspire a general
return of optimism and lift the economy;
lower mortgage rates will ease foreclosure
rates and help lift home sales; will re-inflate
the housing market and dispel fears of
deflation."
Hanoch McCarty, "Republicans will continue to argue against any

Director of meaningful change functioning as the brakes on
Training,
Bestspeaker.com the Obama Express. Their negative role will be
noted forever by historians. Obama will begin
restoring American's self-confidence by the
middle of 2010."

Marian Salzman, "Chicago, hometown of President-elect Barack
Chief Marketing Obama, will become the new style-setter for
Officer &
Trendspotter, leadership trends and values for the country and
Porter Novelli the world."
Jim O'Toole, "Congress will pass almost all of President

Daniels Obama's stimulus measures."
Distinguished
Professor of
Business Ethics,
University of
Denver
Rich Goldman, V.P. "The United States' standing in the world takes a
Corp Marketing & significant upward swing, as the trust and
Strategic
Alliances, credibility that the world has placed in Barak
Synopsys Obama's administration makes a clear and
immediate difference. Both our allies and our
enemies respect us more as policies of
pragmatism, transparency and realism replace
policies of dogmatism and cronyism. The United
States becomes much more effective as a world
leader, making significant strides in climate
change, protecting our environment, energy
independence and difficult relations in Russia,
the Middle East, China and North Korea."
Trend 02: Despite the Obama

Effect, the U.S. Economy Will
Remain in Recession
Pat Sonti, "The federal budget deficit, trade deficit, and

President (CEO), current account deficit will further increase in
Strategic Capital
Investments LLC 2009. Interest rates cannot be raised nor can
taxes be raised significantly without hurting the
overall economy. The US dollar will depreciate
further among various currencies and global

currency instability sets in. Crude oil and other
commodity prices are declining due to price
elasticity and income elasticity of demand.
"Mark-to-Model" accounting rule has destroyed
Wall Street and will continue unless its is stopped
by the SEC. Early signs of 'stagflation' in terms of
low business activity, hyperinflation, and high
unemployment will set in."
Nirvikar Singh, "The global economy will get worse in 2009, as

Professor of the financial sector crisis works it way through
Economics, UCSC,
Co-Director and the rest of the economy. China and India will see
Special Advisor to significantly slower growth as well."
the Chancellor
Stewart Levine, "We'll all spend the entire year watching for the
Co-Author bottom...and as optimistic as I usually am it may
"Collaboration
2.0," and Author not come in 2009. The economic and market
"Getting to correction we're in the middle of represent a
Resolution and the profound restructuring of all facets of global
Book of
Agreement" business, political and economic values
requiring most people to ask themselves "what's
really important?." Many will wait and see where
we are at year's end before making big
decisions. I think it's prudent to remain an
observer until the smog clears."
Grant Cardone, "Companies and industries that can only sell

Entrepreneur and their products by offering free credit to
Author of
"Sell to Survive" consumers will go bankrupt."
William W. "The U.S. and world economies will struggle to

McGinnis, CFA, gain footing in 2009. Credit markets, the
Securities Expert,
W. McGinnis foundations of commerce and economic growth,
Advisors, LLC should begin to stabilize during the first half of
the year. Further improvement can be expected
in the later half of the year. A return to normal
conditions should not be expected during 2009.
The credit dislocations and near standstill of the

automotive industry that occurred in the fourth
quarter of 2008 will likely have a rippling affect
into other sectors of the eonomy."
Steve Brown, "The US economy will remain in recession during

Author of 2009. As the recession deepens and lags on
"Jesus Drank,
Judas Repented consolidation will continue in all areas of
and God Divorced business and industry including food service,
His Bride" electronics, auto makers, etc. for example, look
for Circuit city to collapse, Best Buy to benefit."
Hanoch McCarty, "The economy will hit rock bottom in the third
Director of quarter of 2009."
Training,
Bestspeaker.com
Bob Klag, CEO, "In spite of the massive financial bailout, our
Westlake Realty experience is that all lenders (banks, insurance
Group, Inc.
companies, pension & equity funds etc.) are still
very risk averse, constricting credit on existing
loans and being very cautious on new lending.
We believe that this will be the general mood of
the credit markets for 2009. Until the credit
markets ease, it is very difficult to make new
business deals - therefore we believe that
economic activity will continue to contract in
2009."
Phyllis Rockower, "The economy will continue to stay in recession."

President &
Founder,
realestateclubla.com
Anyck Turgeon, "Strong push by the government to assist

Chief of Market low-performance sectors that will eventually
Strategy &
Security, create inflation and substantially reduce the
Crossroads value of the American dollar."
Systems

Jim Cates, "Inflation rate will reach 3-4% as the US
President and government tries to spend its way out of the
Founder, LOBI
Group, LLC, and recession."
Author of
"Climbing The
Ladder of
Business
Intelligence"
Love Goel, "Retailers that survive will become more

Chairman & CEO, dominant , 10-15% of supply will disappear - as
Growth Ventures
Group competitors go bankrupt or shut down stores."
Rich Goldman, V.P. "The economy continues to deteriorate through

Corp Marketing & most of 2009. We will see unemployment levels
Strategic
Alliances, not seen since before World War II. As the year
Synopsys progresses, more and more companies will enter
bankruptcy and go out of business as the
malaise spreads from industry to industry.
Obama stimulus policies will start to make an
appreciable impact at the latter part of the year,
as the economy hits bottom and begins its long,
slow recovery"
Jennifer Vessels, "Revenue and profits to be down by 20% or more

CMC and CEO, across all industries."
Next Step
Marian Salzman, "By spring, the subprime mortgage debacle was

Chief Marketing about to trigger a full-on global financial
Officer &
Trendspotter, meltdown."
Porter Novelli
Kay Compton "In the current economy and for sustenance,

Logsdon, Director, people will be dining out a lot less, especially in
The Food Channel
the midscale and fine dining establishment, and
that will hit the restaurant business in the
pocketbook."

Roger Hardy, "The global economy will continue to slow for the
Co-Founder, first 3 quarters of 09 and as the cost cuts and
Chairman, CEO &
President of rationalizations take full effect, the economy will
Coastal Contacts up-tick in q4 09 with q1 2010, starting the next
bull cycle."
Bob Beck, Owner "Companies will show their lack of 'Operational

of Sales Builders, Prudence' in this slow economy, which means
Author of "Winning
in the 5th Quarter" they will make broad-brush/wholesale cutbacks
and the upcoming regardless of the impact on forward revenue
book, "Are We in a growth."
Recession, or is it
Just Me?"
Punita Pandey, "It will get worse before it gets better. It will get
CEO, netCustomer better. People and businesses retool to survive &
thrive."
Brian Lawley, CEO, "By the end of 2009 the economy will have
The 280 Group and recovered enough that most companies and
Author of
"Expert Product individuals will wish they had not reacted with as
Management" much panic as they did. Housing will stabilize
due to the fed's actions to lower mortgage rates.
The financial system will heal. The American car
companies will recover somewhat due to
downsizing/restructuring and low gas prices
leading to purchases. Venture Capitals will have
gotten phenomenally great deals due to
"panic-ridden" thinking from startups that leads
to ridiculously low valuations. And in the
meantime a whole range of very smart people in
Silicon Valley will have had a lot of time on their
hands and will come up with a new batch of great
ideas and products."
John Wilkerson, "Fed interest rates will begin to rise as the

Executive Director, economy & GDP improves during Q4 '09."
Bellwether
Services

Dean Lane, "Tech will be the first to recover (by Q3) while the
Principal, auto and housing markets will lag behind."
The Office of CIO
Trend 03: Continued Decline

in Real Estate Prices by
15-25%
Alexander B. "It's going to get a lot worse before it gets any

Kasdan, President, better. Housing prices in overheated areas such
Convergence
Capital Partners, as New York area and California will drop by
LLC another 25-30%."
William W. "Real estate problems can be expected to

McGinnis, CFA, worsen at least through mid-year due to the
Securities Expert,
W.McGinnis declining employment base and continuing
Advisors, LLC shocks to consumer confidence. Real estate is
unlikely to see any recovery during 2009."
Dave Muti, JD, "The housing market will not bottom until half
RMA, and Author way through 2010. Government intervention will
of "Mortgages:
What You Need to not help in any way. In fact it is prolonging the
Know" crash. Loan modifications are just one example
of this. More foreclosures will in turn further
depress the real estate market causing an
increase in short sales."
Steve Brown, "US Real Estate values will continue to erode.

Author of The skyrocketing number of 2009 US
"Jesus Drank,
Judas Repented foreclosures will shatter 2008 records."
and God Divorced
His Bride"
Phyllis Rockower, "Housing prices will come down another 10-20%

President & in "bubble areas" - especially in the higher end."
Founder,

Anyck Turgeon, "Additional declines in the real estate market -
Chief of Market particularly in markets that have not yet been
Strategy &
Security, affected and in remaining over-inflated markets
Crossroads given the return to group and family living
Systems arrangements."
Philip Newbold, "Real estate prices in non-Sun Belt areas will

Director, bottom in mid 2Q09. Most Sun Belt properties
Consulting and
Risk Management will not find their bottom until late 2009, at best,
and will recover more slowly as Boomers
continue to show less proclivity for retiring in the
Sun Belt than did their parents."
Jack Bass, The "Inflation will elevate house prices and reduce
Apprentice the drag of housing on the economy until the
Millionaire
Program, point that rising mortgage rates again halt the
amprogram.com housing expansion."
Tom Vanderwell, "The housing market will be showing small

Mortgage Lender pockets of recovery, but the majority of the nation
and Author at
straighttalkaboutm will still be plagued by high levels of inventory,
ortgages.com high levels of foreclosures, and low sales."
Tom Vanderwell, "The savings rate will be higher at the end of

Mortgage Lender 2009 than it is now but the mortgage rates will
and Author at
straighttalkaboutm also be higher than they are now."
ortgages.com
Ken Brand, Sales "In the 1st quarter, Uncle Sam will swoon
Manager, mortgage interest rates into the low 4% and
Prudential Gary
Greene, Realtors suspend capital gains taxes for real estate
and investors who buy foreclosed properties. By
Author/contributor summer's end, foreclosure inventory will be
–
Agentgenius.com significantly lower, price stability will begin,
consumer confidence will bloom and '09 will be
better than '08."

Sean McCauley, "As housing prices stabilize and flatten we will
Author of have a turn in new entry level wealth beginning,
"DNA of the Young
Entrepreneur" as first time buyers accrue equity on there new
homes there will be great opportunity for the
service related industries."
Trend 04: Unemployment

Becoming a Major Political /
Economic Issue Hitting 10%
Jim Terzian, "Unemployment plus Underemployment will top

Principal 20%."
Consultant, the
Terzian
International
Group
Hanoch McCarty, "The unemployment rate will be about 11% with

Director of cities and towns close to bankruptcy."
Training,
Bestspeaker.com
Peter Ostrow, "Unemployment bottoms out at 11% in 2009 in

President and the second/early third quarter."
CEO, Technical
Communities, Inc.
Jim O'Toole, "Unemployment will peak at a litle over 10% by

Daniels next summer."
Distinguished
Professor of
Business Ethics,
University of
Denver
Dave Muti, JD, "Mounting layoffs leading to unemployment

RMA and Author of upwards to 10%."
"Mortgages: What
You Need to Know"

Phyllis Rockower, "California unemployment will hit 10%."
President &
Founder,
Tom Scarda, "The current recession is already worse than

FranChoice 2002 and unemployment rate will be close to 9%
Consultant &
Coach, Host of The by Q1 '09."
Franchise Hour
radio show
Sheridan Tatsuno, "Unemployment rate tops 9%, leading to a new

Principal, entrepreneurial boom."
Dreamscape
Global
Pamela Springer, "Unemployment will go to 8% and include many

President and more federal and state employees than usual
ECO, ECNext, Inc.
due to stress all the individual states are
experiencing."
Anyck Turgeon, "On-going massive lay-offs in the press and

Chief of Market analyst communities as social media are
Strategy &
Security, empowering the masses to communicate
Crossroads globally for free."
Systems
William W. "Job losses and business failures will most likely

McGinnis, CFA, accelerate at least through mid-year and
Securities Expert,
W. McGinnis possibly through the end of the year."
Advisors, LLC
Marc Scheer, "The number of unemployed college graduates

Ph.D., Author of will increase. Salaries for new college graduates
"No Sucker Left
Behind: Avoiding will decrease."
the Great College
Rip-Off

Todd Rhoad, "Career stability for Generation Y and Baby
Director, Blitz boomers will decrease due to organizational
Team Consulting
and Author of instabilities and transformations, not individual
"Blitz The Ladder" choice."
Nancy Zucker, "Contractors and consultants will be busier than

Founder and people looking for full time commitments from
President, Nancy
Zucker Associates companies in the first two quarters of '09.
Companies will not be ready to hire employees at
full time salaries and pay benefits."
Jennifer Vessels, "Companies continue to downscale and realign

CMC and CEO, to increase productivity and people are working
Next Step
harder and longer for less pay."
Trend 05: Significant

Increase in SMEs
Vanessa Horwell, "Entrepreneurship and the revival of small

Chief Visibility business - In spite of the doom and gloom, a
Advisor, ThinkInk
wonderful thing to come from this economic
climate is entrepreneurship and the revival of
small business. They're the backbone of this
country, and one of the great things about living
in this culture. A good idea can still pay off if
accompanied by realistic goals and hard work.
Organizations like NFTE are out there training
youth from low-income communities to think like
entrepreneurs, to envision possibilities and then
how to make them manifest. Their success rate
is remarkable. Extensive job slashing will
revitalize the small business arena and people
who never thought they had it in them will
discover their inner entrepreneur."

Angelika "Small businesses survive by re-inventing their
Blendstrup, Ph.D., business models and are stronger for it."
Founder &
Principal,
Blendstrup &
Associates
Pamela Springer, "Small business will continue to grow as

President and unemployed individuals will become resourceful
ECO, ECNext, Inc.
and innovative...the sustainability of their
business will be key, a few gems will definitely
pop out as a result of it."
Jeremy Gutsche, "Do it Yourself (DIY) & the Rise of the Cottage
Founder, Industry - Troubled job market and the need for
TrendHunter.com
extra cash will spark many hobbiests to transition
their love for craft into cottage industry. Internet
communities like Etsy and Craftster were already
sparking interest in DIY projects, fashion and
crafts."
Daniel Meyerov, "Economic Necessity will be the Mother of

CEO, Co-Founder, Entrepreneurial Invention and Small Business
OnlyBusiness.com
rises from the ashes. With the shrinking job
market and companies looking to minimize their
exposure to staffing and payroll commitments,
there will be a marked increase in the number of
micro and small businesses that start up. The
bottom line is that, with less jobs available,
innovation and new approaches to doing
business will be the order of the day."
Tom Scarda, "2009 will see the most new franchise

Franchise businesses open in history. Laid off, individuals
Consultant,
FranChoice, Inc. will be forced into entrepreneurship. What makes
franchising so attractive is there are more than
75 industries to consider and many are at an
investment way under $100,000 dollars. Many
corporate refugees will have a severance
package or money saved and franchising is

ubiquitous in America and easy to establish. I
predict upward of 15,000 new franchised units
will be opened in 2009."
David Bookout, "As the world re-calibrates and companies adjust

Accomplishment head counts to maximize profitability, individuals
Artist, Strategist, &
Founder, will find it more and more difficult to compete for
Effetti, Inc. the jobs they want and may in fact need.
Personal Brand will become a critical factor in
professional differentiation."
Sean McCauley, "I predict an increase in small business start ups

Author of as well. While unemployment increases so will
"DNA of the Young
Entrepreneur" the young entrepreneurs wanting to get traction
in the market place. "
Robert Laura, "The Financial Planning Industry will see a

Financial Speaker, seismic shift in financial advisers who will begin
Author, &
Money Expert to offer financial coaching and counseling
services as more middle Americans find
themselves in need of money management
support and tools instead of just investment
advice."
Trend 06: China Closes the

Gap on Becoming the World's
#1 Economic Power
Nicolas Soergel, "A lot of companies in emerging countries such

CEO, T-Systems as the BRIC countries accumulated a lot of cash
Japan K.K. &
Author of and look for opportunities to expand their reach
"Happy About into western markets. Especially in India and
Finding An Extra China a lot of large corporations are state or
Hour Every Day"
privately owned allowing large anti-cyclical
investments into further growth. The dollar and

the Euro are cheap and stock prices will reach
their rock bottom in 2009, so that western listed
companies will never be that cheap for a long
time. 2009 will therefore see a few spectacular
acquisitions of well known large western
enterprises by new global players from emerging
countries."
Stephen Ibaraki , "With 2 trillion in financial reserves and nearly

CIPS Fellow, NPA 600B in expenditures in infrastructure, expect
Distinguished
Fellow China's fortunes to continue to rise in 2009.
China will also become the largest investor in
America's future obtaining assets at such sharp
discounts that the financial multiples returned in
the medium-term future will cement China's
leadership. This will be driven by the sharp and
extended recession in the US which in 2009 will
average more than a 1% shrinkage in the
economy over the quarters. 2009 will be the
known as the year when China becomes the
economic hub or keystone for the planet and
replacing the US. As a result, China will become
the undisputed leader much sooner than
originally predicted - knock 5-10 years off of prior
predictions."
Jean Paul, IBM "The best way to look at the world in 2009 is
research, Emritus through Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC)
and Scholar in
Residence, filters. BRIC countries and many other and many
Univerity of other emerging regions will have economic
California, Berkley growth as measured by their GDP while the
developed economies will struggle to even keep
their current GDP levels."
Mike Bradley, "Western economies will find it increasingly

Strategy Emerging difficult to respond quickly to global dynamic free
Market and
Collaboration enterprise markets because financial institutions
Adviser, ii Group are now tethered to political desires of the
western governments"

Axel K. Kloth, "The world economies are going to continue to
Founder, CTO & implode in 2009, with China and India leading the
Vice President of
Engineering, decline. Malaysia and the Philippines will suffer
Parimics, Inc. R&D from reversal of outsourcing of their
semiconductor packaging and call center
industries, with them being pulled back to the
US. This worldwide prolonged collapse of the
US-type turbo capitalism will trigger a search for
a new, kinder, more stable and less cyclical
version of capitalism, pay scales, and taxation."
Trend 07: Energy Prices Go

Back Up
Nirvikar Singh, "The price of oil will start to creep up again, and
Professor of the US will start to establish global leadership in
Economics, UCSC
and Special technologies for sustainability."
Advisor to the
Chancellor, UCSC
Joel Libava, "Gasoline prices will be at $2.99 a gallon by june

President, 15th."
Franchise
Selection
Specialists Inc.
Jim Terzian, "Oil will drop to $40/barrel or a little below in Q1

Principal '09, then rebound to $100 a barrel or more in the
Consultant, The
Terizian summer. But neither oil prices nor gasoline
International prices in the US will go within 20% of the highs of
Group 2008. "
Pamela Springer, "A stronger, more competitive, energy efficient

President and country can only be better for the long run."
CEO, ECNext, Inc.

Rich Goldman, V.P. "The United States will see $1.00 per gallon
Corp Marketing & gasoline as the price of oil declines to $25 per
Strategic
Alliances, barrel."
Synopsys
Dean Lane, "There will be a boom in the energy efficiency /

Principal, green industry."
The Office of CIO
Jean Paul, IBM "The way you live and work will be impacted by
Research, 'green' thoughts, some of which will take us in
Emeritus and
Scholar in unexpected directions, like cloud computing."
Residence,
University of
California, Berkley
Trend 08: The Stock Market

Continues to be an "E-Ticket"
Roller Coaster Ride
William W. "The stock market will likely be a rough ride in

McGinnis, CFA, 2009 with likely market upswings followed by
Securities Expert,
W. McGinnis declines – possible of even greater magnitude.
Advisors, LLC While bottom levels may be found in certain
industry sectors early in the year, others will not
reach bottom until some time later. The market
as a whole is unlikely to reach a bottom until the
pervasiveness of the economic problems are
clearly seen and understood. That is not likely to
occur until late in 2009 or beyond."
Tom Vanderwell, "The stock market will be lower on December 15,

Mortgage Lender 2009 than it is on December 15, 2008."
and Author at
straighttalkaboutm
ortgages.com

John Wilkerson, "All stock markets will end slightly lower in Q1 of
Executive Director, '09."
Bellwether
Services
Jim Terzian, "Small and Medium size businesses will lead the
Principal recovery; $20 Milllion to $200 Million grossing
Consultant, the
Terzian companies with the focus, agility and drive will be
International the first to capitalize on this failing economy, then
Group the first to lead the general recovery. Look for the
Russell Index to show short term victories and
herald the longer term recovery. Just don't look
for that recovery in 2009."
Jim O'Toole, "The stock market will start a long slow recovery
Daniels in February."
Distinguished
Professor of
Business Ethics,
University of
Denver
Peter Ostrow, "Market bottoms for 2009 by March 31 at above

President and 7900 on the Dow Jones."
CEO, Technical
Communities, Inc.
Philippe Lavie, "Dow Jones back over 10,000 by September

President, '09."
KeyRoad
Enterprises, LLC
Jack Bass, The "The stock market is in a bottoming process and

Apprentice is anticipating a great stimulus package from the
Millionaire
Program, new administration, plus the auto bailout will lift
amprogram.com the economy. Optimism of a better economy will
lift the stock market as billions in investor
accounts - now parked - will return to equities.
The stock market will rally on the basis of a
visibly better housing and U.S. economy and
companies producing commodities – particularly
oil and gold will lead the stock market recovery."

Anthony Migyanka, "Stock Market (Dow Jones) rebounds 53%."
Managing Partner,
Mobile Money
Minute, LLC
Trend 09: Web 2.0 Continues

to Play an Integral Part of our
Future
Seshadri "Obama will explicitly acknowledge the

Sundararajan, contribution of technology to solve the problems
COO, Real Soft
he is likely to face on assuming the office."
Jennifer L. "The White House, major bands, news stations,

Jacobson, and television shows will regularly send 'live
Founder,
Jacobson broadcasts' to social media venues during
Communication important announcements, events, and
and Author of performances enabling an unprecedented level
"42 Rules of Social
Media for of connectivity with the online public."
Business"
Rich Goldman, V.P. "The internet continues its trajectory toward

Corp Marketing & more and more relevancy in everyday life. The
Strategic
Alliances, internet enters politics in a major and
Synopsys nonreversable way as the Obama administration
takes advantage of it to provide transparency,
and to allow ordinary citizen a voice in the
governance of the United States. Social Media
continues to increase in importance as people
find it an effective way to communicate with each
other, and companies find it a cost effective way
to market themselves to their customers.
Viewing habits continue to be more fulfilled
through the internet."

Jean Paul, IBM "There will be more transistors in the world than
Research, grains of rice, perhaps also at a cheaper price...
Emeritus and
Scholar in "Smart Object" will be no longer be an oxymoron
Residence, but an ever-increasing part of our daily lives,
University of much beyond your cell phone or your GPS
California, Berkley
enabled car. Object will take advantage of the
tremendous quantity of information that is being
gathered by the Internet and "mashing" will be a
smashing success. There will be more objects
using the Internet than humans. Eventually we
will reach one trillion users and the Internet will
become the Intranet."
Jay Deragon, "Google, or someone else, will release 'smart

Social Media agents' which enable users to learn faster and
Strategist,
The Conversation save time engaging in relevant conversations."
Group and
Author of
"The Relationship
Economy"
Jim Cates, "IT budget reductions and data overload will

President and make BI a sought after skill for getting business
Founder, LOBI
Group, LLC and impactful information."
Author of
"Climbing The
Ladder of
Business
Intelligence"
David H. Deans, "Tele Presence and all other forms of online

Managing Director, meetings or collaboration will develop new
GeoActive Group
USA momentum in 2009 as business leaders reduce
most non-essential business travel."
Marian Salzman, "Technology and media advances will help

Chief Marketing people to create a self-curated, media-driven
Officer &
Trendspotter, Third Place to escape the pressures of home and
Porter Novelli work."

Daniel Meyerov, "As the costs and limited flexibility that comes
CEO, Co-Founder, from traditional bricks-and-mortar presence
OnlyBusiness.com
continues to undermine traditional retail chains,
more and more businesses will come to rely on
the flexible and affordable performance of the
online business channel, The web will see a
major push as a dominant market channel for
small business."
Jay Deragon, "Social Commerce" will create a new definition of

Social Media economic value and subsequently we may see
Strategist,
The Conversation the dawn of a new currency (Social Capital will
Group and take on new meaning and measure). Social
Author of Media emphasis will shift from marketing and
"The Relationship
Economy" public relations to customer and supplier
relationship models (Doc Searls VRM).
Convergence of social technology will cut across
all devices and broadcast mediums bringing new
meaning to the terms "always on".
Brandon J. "Twitter will peak in 2009 before starting to

Mendelson, Author decline at the end of 2010. The explosion of the
of the "Albany
Times Union's Gphone and iPhones will allow for more mobile
Graduate Student video to be shared, leading to a growth in
Survival" companies like Seismic; however, it will continue
to be difficult to monetize both
because:Advertisers don't want to waste money
on poorly designed videos. Twitter users have
mounted a rebellion against inststream Twitter
ads."
Michael Bradley, "Collaboration tools will increasingly replace

Strategy Emerging business travel for communication convenience
Market and
Collaboration cost and security reasons"
Adviser, ii Group

Angelika "Social group in Facebook etc. will move offline
Blendstrup, Ph.D., to do business together".
Founder &
Principal,
Blendstrup &
Associates
Jennifer L. "Major mergers to happen in the social media

Jacobson, space between sites that offer completely
Founder,
Jacobson different types of social media, like book marking
Communication and video streaming.
and Author of
"42 Rules of Social
Media for
Business"
Brian Lawley, CEO, "Just as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and other

the 280 Group and websites/services have appeared in previous
Author of
"Expert Product years at least one major new company will
Management" become a massive viral hit. This is due to the fact
that the web 2.0 infrastructure is mature and
prevalent enough now and there are so many
people familiar with social networking etc. that a
new application can (and will) gain adoption
faster than any yet seen."
Ralph Marx, CEO, "Twitter and Facebook, just on the basis of sheer
Advocate Systems, numbers alone, will lock down their dominance
Inc.
as the primary social networks. A few others will
find survival via a shift of their business models
to the needs of a society in recession and
undergoing a strong cultural change. A market
place based on bartering would be a good
example."
Stephen Ibaraki , "We are at an historical inflection point. For the

CIPS Fellow, NPA first time, the UN-Founded, International
Distinguished
Fellow Federation for Information Processing is
launching a global certification and
professionalism program in 2009. The Program
is called IP3 and is based upon common

standards. It will deliver the outcomes of global
standards, professionalism, trust, code of ethics,
a stronger voice for the IT practitioner, and a
sense of common identity. Also the program will
deliver a feeling of being an engineer or
executive versus a geek or pirate; business
solutions over technical features; a career path,
progression, and recognition over a soiled job."
Trend 10: Tougher Economic

Times Drives a Business
Cultural Revolution
Cyril Rayan, "When times become tough, we are forced to

President & CEO, innovate to get out of the tough times. That's
Resiligence Inc.
and Author of exactly what is needed and what will happen in
"Moving From the business world in 2009. Those who will not
Vision to Reality" innovate will be no more. We will need to work
with fundamentally strong business models and
provide a compelling value proposition to
succeed."
Frumi Rachel Barr, "2009 will be a year of creative approaches and

MBA, Ph.D., re-examining business paradigms. People stuck
Advisor to
Business Leaders, in old belief systems will be left behind."
clarityandresults.com
Brandon J. "The economy will sink to new lows in 2009 as

Mendelson, author there are too many businesses using outdated
of the Albany
Times Union's business models to prop themselves up. Until
Graduate Student these old businesses adapt, and sadly, they
Survival make up many large companies, we will all suffer
from their inability to evolve."

Vicki Kunkel, CEO, "Global shifts in consciousness. 2009 will be a
Vicki Kunkel period much like the 1960s in that there will be a
International
renewed "battle" between the "old guard" and the
"new generation. "The biggest outcome of this
will be a greater focus on eliminating corruption
in all industries and at all levels, as well as an
increasing interest in a "we" society, instead of a
"me" society. People will begin to focus not so
much on how to improve their own lot in life, but
how to improve the life of mankind in general.
Any industries that promote community and
working for the greater good will succeed in a big
way."
Roger Hardy, "2009 will continue a record number of hedge

Co-Founder, fund and other opportunistic business plan
Chairman, CEO &
President of failures as the economy returns to a
Coastal Contacts "back–to–basics" mentality, where investors
invest in what they understand."
Ralph Marx, CEO, "The ongoing radical change in our economy is

Advocate Systems, going to cause some big shifts in our culture and
Inc.
will cause some changes in the way we live."
Robert Laura, "Internet Real-Estate (buying and selling of

Financial Speaker, domain names) along with website development
Author, &
Money Expert will become the hot niche as the economic crisis
creates a significant upswing in entrepreneurs
who want and know the benefits of a solid web
presence."
Jack Yan, CEO, "Recessionary times will lead to more

Jack Yan & soul-searching, which will make people more
Associates
considerate for a longer time than after 9-11. It's
not just about economizing, but about being less
selfish and more willing to reach out to other
territories and markets—which will lead to a
fairer and more balanced concept of
globalization."

Kay Koitzsch , "The re-use and re-sale of clothing (and just
Owner and Chief about everything else) will become more and
Operating Officer,
Just Between more popular as people downsize and learn to
Friends Seattle use their resources better! (and it makes me
happy!)"
Vanessa Horwell, "Less is more - a possible good thing for 2009 is

Chief Visibility that Americans will learn what others around the
Advisor, ThinkInk
globe already know - which is that less is often
more. 2009's economy should be looked at as
opportunity to reconsider our value system,
individually and collectively. I just don't believe
we need so much of the frills and froth that we
THINK we do. I believe people will continue to
spend, albeit cautiously, and companies will take
this crunch as an opportunity to re-define and
listen to their core audience, resulting in the
emergence of all sorts of new and successful
niche markets based on values."
Ivan Temes, "Volunteer organizations and non-profits will

Author of have additional assistance from a portion of the
"Care: You Have
the Power" many laid-off workers who now understand more
the importance of 'giving.' Many people who
believe that giving presents to others will begin to
see that what is really needed is 'presence' –
more so than presents."
Ann H. McCormick, "Online education for children will be well funded

Ph.D., CEO, so it can actually work, bringing incomparable
LearningFriends.com
benefit to society at a tiny cost per child, like
Sesame Street did in the sixties and after. There
will be a great emphasis on children in the
economy of 2009, no matter what else happens
in the world, we will take a broad and long view
to make sure children are warm, dry, well-fed,
with loving people, and given fine learning
opportunities."

Kay Compton "We are in search of healthier food as a lifestyle,
Logsdon, Director, not as temporary diet. Living La Vida Locavore –
The Food Channel
grow, buy fresh and eat local to stay healthy. Our
perspective has changed in this economy, and
eating at home this time around is about both
entertainment, sustenance and healthy. We see
people and companies stepping up to
incorporate food philanthropy to address the
hunger in the world. Food drives will be
enhanced by that $1 donation at the grocery
checkout lane, or the purchase of a pin ribbon
label product."
Mike Bradley, "International companies in the consumer

Strategy Emerging markets will have to increasingly embrace social
Market &
Collaboration and environmental responsibility else customers
Adviser, ii Group will vote with their feet"
Marian Salzman, “Shifts in generational and gender dynamics, as

Chief Marketing cuspers (born 1955 to 1964) take leadership
Officer &
Trendspotter, roles in government, business and communities,
Porter Novelli and the emergence of the Female Economy will
have major impact on getting the world back on
its feet.”
Hugh Simpson, "More of the Social Enterprise model as I'm using

Co-Founder, with my new dome kit manufacturing business.
7th Haven
Development Kids today want to offer something to the
improvement of the world in addition to filling
their pocketbooks. This model allows for
re-employment in what I see is as the trend for
2009 and beyond - the return of the Small
Manufacturer in the USA."
Vanessa Horwell, "Out with the Old - Today, job security will require
Chief visibility initiative and a desire to learn things that keep
Officer, ThinInk
the employee not only useful to the company, but
also mentally alert and challenged. Those who

view the world as it is today will be far better
prepared for any hard knocks coming their way,
seniority is no guarantee."
Grant Cardone, "Individuals that don't produce far in excess of

Entreprenuer and what is expected will find themselves in
Author of
"Sell to Survive" unemployment lines. Management that does not
insist on and ensure that their people work to
achieve targets will be demoted back into the
work force where they probably won't be able to
find a job."
Vicki Kunkel, CEO, "Expect major changes in the way consumers

Vicki Kunkel are marketed to: advertising will be replaced with
International, and
Author of interactive consumer education campaigns. As
"Instant Appeal: part of the focus on the "we society", media
The 8 Primal companies that will prosper will go away from
Factors that Create
Blockbuster traditional advertising to reach consumers, and
Success." will instead focus on consumer educational
content that is highly interactive. The marketers
will be the sponsors of educational content that
consumers crave. The key to the success of
these programs is the interactivity of the
clickable video. Early adopters of these
consumer engagement education campaigns will
be the "healthcare" and "green" industries, and
will be widely accepted by most other markets by
mid 2010.
Bob Hagerty, CEO "2009 will be a tipping point for visual

& President, communication. Across industries, we are seeing
Polycom
visual communication solutions help customers
work faster, smarter and more effectively than
their competition. The promise of visual
communication originated in the late 50s, but
today the bandwidth, network management
tools, business drivers, the quality of experience
is here. People love using the current HD video

and telepresence technology and they value the
significant business and work-life balance
benefits that it delivers."
Bob Beck, owner "Organizations won't be able to employ the same

of Sales Builders, cookie cutter sales approach they used in a good
Author of
"Winning in the 5th economy. The most open-minded, progressive,
Quarter" and the and forward-thinking individuals and
upcoming book, organizations will thrive in 2009."
"Are We in a
Recession, or is it
Just Me?"
Marian Salzman, "Technology and media advances will help

Chief Marketing people to create a self-curated, media-driven
Officer &
Trendspotter, Third Place to escape the pressures of home and
Porter Novelli work."
Anthony Migyanka, "At least one major television network airs their
Managing Partner, entire schedule on-demand via the internet."
Mobile Money
Minute, LLC.
David H. Deans, "Video communication will more than double in

Managing Director, adoption as distribution costs continue to
GeoActive Group
USA decline."
Peter Ostrow, "The NY TIMES companies merge with a

President and privately held media company."
CEO, Technical
Communities, Inc.

Bonus Trend: Potential
Investment Opportunities
Jack Bass, The "A tidal wave of money will lead to a tidal wave
Apprentice carrying inflation and gold to new heights. In the
Millionaire
Program, short term the massive trillion dollar packages
amprogram.com put in place have had the effect of lowering
mortgage rates and inter- bank lending rates.
However, they have thus far failed to promote
bank lending to the degree that companies have
access to borrowing. indeed , General Electric
and Goldman Sachs had to turn to Warren
Buffett for billions. Those without access to
Buffett and/ or the AAA credit rating are having to
delay expansion and lay off workers."
Phil Newbold, "Following the historically brief recovery of the

Director, U.S. Dollar in 2008, the dollar will return to its
Consulting and
Risk Management retreating ways in mid-2009 leading to a
Services rediscovery of commodities investing and
significantly higher energy prices."
Anthony Migyanka, "At least 20 new funds started that invest in

Managing Partner, "human capital loans" and low-income housing
Mobile Money
Minute, LLC solutions."
Joel Libava, "2009 will start out ugly, and by late summer, we
President, all just may feel that there is some light at the end
Franchise
Selection of the tunnel. The US Treasury will be printing
Specialists Inc. money well through the late spring."

Jim Cates, "Corporate Bond rates will reach their highest
President and yields in 10years due to constraints in the
Founder, LOBI
Group, LLC and financial loan market from banks. Thus, solid
Author of corporations will have to pay these yields to get
"Climbing The dollars from risk taking investors. Most investors
Ladder of
Business will purchase treasuries and CDs."
Intelligence"
Dave Muti, JD, "The exotic types of mortgages referred to as

RMA, Author, option arms and pick-a-payment will begin to
"Mortgages: What
You Need to Know" reset in 2009 and beyond increasing the number
of defaults."
Love Goel, "The next generation of specialty retail leaders

Chairman & CEO, will begin to emerge - catering to changing
Growth Ventures
Group consumer demographics, behaviors and
lifestyles."
Dr. Gregory Alan "Similar to the explosion of computer viruses in

Bolcer, Serial the 90's, corporate data breaches have hit their
Entrepreneur in
Internet & tipping point. Corporate piracy will become
Security, rampant as non-technical executives will happily
Bolcer.org pay the ransoms for breached data rather than
face the public scrutiny and lawsuits. These
exchanges that you won't read about in the news
will be the catalyst for a self-reinforcing vicious
cycle."
Don Gaspar, CTO, "Finally seeing the traction of printed materials

Yapstone, going away: books, magazines, bills, etc.
Inc./RentPayment,
Inc. Amazon's Kindle and Sony's eReader are
leading the way as we see traditional publishes
vanish. Look at the Tribune Company filing for
bankruptcy as an example. Companies in the
publishing space that do get it will do better than
ever. Marvel Entertainment gets it. They see they
were NOT a comic book publisher, but rather an
entertainment company with their own

characters and that comics happened to be a
form of presenting their stories to their audience.
Now look at their block buster movies.
Don Gaspar, CTO, Distribution media really getting digital traction

Yapstone, exceeding traditional media. Another obvious
Inc./RentPayment,
Inc. one, music, shows, movies, but an overlooked
item is eBills. Getting your bill through your email
is more convenient, easy to add payment
reminders, and very useful to load into Excel or
any program to track your finances. As the bigger
banks start using eBills, we'll see the Pony
Express mail going away with our newspapers,
books and magazines.
Margaret G. Orem, The protection and safeguarding of, and

CEO - focused/limited/controlled access to information
Execsolution, Inc.
and intelligence gather by and used by
governments will become one of the main issues
in a nations' security considerations. Technology
infrastructure will become a critical componenent
in governmental strategic plans and initiatives as
well as the management of information systems
and data.
CONCLUSION
Increased Government spending on bailouts

around the world, high unemployement and low
interest rates lead to one not-so-good outcome:
stagflation. In transition times like these, there
are many that will lose, but there are few that
seem to prosper. Maybe with this information in
this chapter, you find your way to prosper.

Good luck in the year ahead!

Part II
Why Should
You Believe
• Chapter 2: “Predictability in Previous Years”
C h a p t e r
2 Predictability in
Previous Years
The predictions for a future year are typically

made in October or November of the preceding
year. At the end of the following year, we look at
the previous predictions to determine whether
they came to fruition. Here is how Mitchell Levy's
predictions have faired over the last 11 years.
• 2008: 85% accurate

40 Chapter 2: Predictability in Previous Years
C h a p t e r
3 2008 Predictions
If this were not a presidential election year, we'd

be uttering the "R" word for the first time in a
decade. The U.S. economy is in serious trouble;
huge budget deficit, sliding dollar, increased oil
prices, high unemployment, and lack of a
long-term focus on the fundamental components
of prosperity (education, jobs, stable economic
environment, etc.). Let's hope that the new
president brings the tenacity and focus that
allows us to get out of the downward spiral we've
been in for the last decade.
Top Ten Trends for 2008

1. A Tough Year for the U.S. and the World
Economy
2. Green is the New Black: Global Warming
and Environmental Concerns Affect
Businesses
3. The U.S. Dollar’s Long-term Decline
Continues
4. The Largest Asset Most People have
Becomes Somewhat of a Liability!
5. The Internet Ride continues to thrill

6. Rise of 'Chindia' Continues to Threaten the
U.S. as the Dominant World Power
7. Rapid Demographic Change and Ways to
Reach Them: The Internet is Bringing about
a Change in Marketing and Advertising
8. Ascendancy of the Mobile Sector
9. Market Pressures Foster More Innovation
10. Hi-Tech and Software Evolve Dramatically
Bonus trends:
1. Bio-Tech Brings Forth Good Promise

2. Predictions on U.S. Elections and Politics
3. Interesting Tidbits
Trends #1:
A Tough Year for the U.S. and
World Economy
Ric Urrutia, CEO, "The banking crisis will worsen considerably,

Taos Mountain forcing the Fed to continue to lower rates,
Software
making the dollar weaker relative to world
currencies, and oil will go to $120 a barrel."
Allan Kramer, "Overall, the economy in 2008 will be choppy and

Chairman of the flat, at best. A worst case scenario, not
Board, Bridgebank
unreasonable to expect, would be a mild
recession."
Brad Peppard, "Stagflation returns. Not since the early 1970s

Partner, has the U.S. economy experienced the dual
MarketingBank
problems of inflation and slow economic growth.
However, the explosive inflationary economic

policies of the GW Bush administration (high
spending combined with low taxes) over the last
six years, which have been offset by the
deflationary impact of Chinese productivity in
combination with their maintenance of an
artificially low exchange rate, are finally going to
hit home. Expect a couple of years of pain (at
least), while the U.S. economy works its way out
of the hole that has been dug."
Eddy Coenye, "The Western world will be in recession in 2008.

CEO, Nubiquity Consolidation will be the way to maintain
stability. Mergers will reach an all time high.
Venture Capital will be hard to get in 2008, due
to the economic slow down."
Frank Slootman, "A severe economic slump, mostly affecting

President & CEO, 'Walmart shoppers', widens the gap between the
Data Domain, Inc.
haves and have-nots. Causes: Oil prices, weak
dollar, budget deficit, massive mortgage
foreclosures, and the housing market continues
to go down and sideways."
Stewart L. Levine, "Unfortunately the U.S. will be challenged in

Esq., Co-Author, 2008. Global political stature, balance of
'Collaboration 2.0'
(Publisher: Happy payments and deficits will weigh on the
About) economy. The politics of the election and
dissatisfaction with the current political climate
will take a toll on the economy when coupled with
the sub-prime collapse. It could be a very messy
year. It reminds me of the early 1980's when the
U.S. had lost its edge."
Dennis, Former "The challenges of the financial industry are only

CEO, Okidata in their infancy and I predict major write- offs and
Corporation
employee challenges in the first half of 2008."

Jon William Toigo, "The sub-prime lending fiasco will be the final
CEO, Toigo nail in the coffin for the economy. A full-blown
Partners
International recession is imminent."
George L. Roman, "The Fed will continue to print money like there's
Senior Enterprise no tomorrow. Exports will rise and imported
Consultant,
Rockville, MD goods will get very expensive. Any further
significant turbulence in the Middle East will send
oil to $150 a barrel."
Michael Drapkin, "2008 will be a spotty and uneven year for the
CEO, Drapkin economy and business. The crash of the
Technology Corp.
sub-prime mortgage market will continue
unabated through the rest of the year, causing
disruptions in the real estate market and
continued free falls in property prices in the
affected areas, as well as
tightening of credit to mortgage seekers. The

spike in oil prices will hit the gas pump, causing
tightening of general consumer spending, which
will both affect the retail markets and influence
the presidential race, to the detriment of the
Republican candidate, whoever that ends up
being."
Mike Heintz, "The outlook on next year's economy is that it will

President, play out about the same as 2007. Small projects
University Electric
will be put on hold while larger ones will go
ahead. I think we should see the upturn
sometime in the 4th quarter next year. Look for a
big holiday season of shopping as the election
will be over and a new confidence is restored."
Rohit Talwar, CEO, "The U.S. economy will go into a downturn--if not
Fast Future a full recession--driven by a combination of a
credit crunch and associated crisis in the banking
system, selling of U.S. T-bills by foreign
countries, declining value of the dollar, rising oil

prices and a general loss of confidence in many
markets. The rest of the world will follow the U.S.
down at differing rates."
"Major banks globally will collapse and either be

bailed out by the central banks or be forced to
sell up or merge with other entities."
Trend #2:
Green is the New Black: Global
Warming and Environmental
Concerns Affect Businesses
Kurt Doelling, Vice "In 2008, more and more companies will
President Supply recognize the importance of deploying a green
Management, Sun
Microsystems, Inc. and socially responsible supply chain. A key
element in creating green supply chains is the
availability and acceptance of consistent industry
standards. We are at a tipping point, ready to
make a major ecological shift in the way
business is conducted globally; but for this shift
to be truly sustainable, we must also emphasize
how it can also be profitable. A green supply
chain has the potential to not only impact a
company's environmental record, but also its
bottom line."
Ralph Marx, CEO, "The concept that we do have alternatives to oil

Advocate Systems, will finally take hold. This will open doors for
Inc.
solutions that have not been even conceived as
of yet. This shift from the question, 'Is it viable' to
'This is doable, now lets look at what really is
viable' will spur a huge invention cycle and a
wave of entrepreneurial ventures."

Ian Browde, Global "Significant innovations in alternative energy,
Village Idiot and and hence, transportation and land use, will start
Social
Technologist to emerge as the majority of global society
recognize that global warming is a more complex
issue than 'the planet is getting warmer'. These
innovations will help humanity recognize that our
global system of transportation, energy use, and
land development (including food and
agriculture) are integrated and each affects the
other."
Sheridan Tatsuno, "$100+ per barrel oil prices, combined with oil
Principal, market volatility and growing concern over global
Dreamscape
Global warming, will lead to accelerated venture and
corporate financing of alternative energies,
lifestyle services, and business models.
Example: Current moves to include externalities
into pricing."
Anyck Turgeon, "Providing renewable clean energy and water

Chief of Market will become globally very important--starting in
Strategy &
Security at 2008."
Crossroads
Systems
Bobby Jadhav, "Awareness to ‘green living’ and environmental

CTO, Siterra friendliness will improve."
Brock Hinzmann, "In 2008, a very large number of alternative

Technology renewable energy technology companies will be
Navigator, SRI
Consulting breaking ground or starting up production in such
Business areas as thin-film solar cells, wind power,
Intelligence algae-based bio-fuels."
Rob Ingersoll, "Alternate fuel vehicles will be seen popping up

Contributor to all over the country but big oil companies will try
Foolosophy
(Publisher: Happy to squash the competition since they still have
About) more then enough oil to keep people going for
the next hundred years."

Buddy Arnheim, "Solar will become a major topic as the price of
Partner/Member of solar panels falls, and the efficiency of related
Firm's Executive
Committee, technology (converters, etc.) improves."
Perkins Coie LLP
Catherine Kitcho, "Substantial venture capital investment will be

The Launch targeted for renewable energy and the
Doctor, and
Author, 'Happy infrastructure required to develop, market, and
About Being a deliver it."
Baby Boomer'
(Publisher: Happy
About)
Peter Paul Roosen, "Carbon dioxide is now being widely viewed as

Author, pollution rather than plant food. It is both. But the
'Overcoming
Inventoritis: The CO2 that comes from burning fossil fuels comes
Silent Killer of in larger amounts than the planet can handle. It
Innovation' also comes with other surprises. There is more
(Publisher: Happy
About) uranium and thorium waste produced in a
coal-fired power plant than a nuclear plant of
equivalent energy output uses as fuel. How's that
for an argument in favor of nuclear energy?
The costs of industrial production are going to

increasingly include the environmental costs.
The traditional producer was only concerned
about getting unwanted stuff up the smokestack,
out the drainpipe or into a dump. Now they are
going to retain ownership and title to the waste
progressively longer. As part of this, the
long-resisted carbon taxes are starting to
appear."
Ross Sedgewick, "Even more focus on mainstreaming of green

Director, Global technologies, energy sources, and alternatives
Product Marketing,
Siemens to burning fossil fuel and/or creating CO2
Enterprise emissions, which will start trickling down to most
Communications power/fuel consuming products in some way."

Sam Gill, "Green is going to be at the top of the agenda for
Co-Author, the next decade as governments and industry
'Climbing the
Ladder of move to implement the Kyoto Protocol."
Business
Intelligence'
(Publisher: Happy
About)
Rob Ingersoll, "The electric car will make a comeback in the

Contributor to next year with solar powered paint or panel on
Foolosophy
(Publisher: Happy the car that will charge the vehicle as it's going to
About) get a much longer time out of the batteries."
Trends #3:
The U.S. Dollar's Long-Term
Decline Continues
Eddy Coenye, "The U.S. dollar will tumble to its lowest level
CEO, Nubiquity since World War II. Gold price will exceed $1400
per ounce."
G. Mark Towhey, "The biggest risk facing businesses globally in

President, Towhey 2008 is the fast decline of the U.S. dollar. There
Consulting Group
Inc. are trillions and trillions of U.S. dollar bills stuffed
into shoeboxes and under mattresses around the
world. Each of these tiny pieces of paper
represents an 'I.O.U.' from the people of the
United States. Each of these dollars is basically
a check--written by the U.S. in exchange for
some foreign good or service. Unlike most
checks, however, these dollars have never been
returned to the bank to be cashed. Rather, they
are hoarded and exchanged from hand to hand
outside the country for further value. At this point,
these trillions of dollars represent a massive
liability in 'un-cashed checks' written by the U.S.

If the U.S. dollar loses its status as the 'most
trusted currency' then these checks will begin
finding their way back to the U.S. Treasury to be
cashed. Promptly. Could the U.S. Treasury do
so?"
Barbara L. Harley, "In 2008, the U.S. dollar will lose some of its
Author, ability to attract foreign currencies. The strength
'International
Business of the Euro and the positive impression of the
Incubation for new governments in France and Germany will
Global Trade' (to siphon some of the currencies into the Euro.
be released Winter
2008) Since it will take the U.S. government at least
twenty four months from now to significantly
change its economic policies and rate of
spending, the deficit will continue to weaken the
dollar and the overall economy. A weak dollar
may provide more export sales and may
encourage more tourism into the U.S., but it will
limit the ability of U.S. tourists to travel and shop
abroad."
Mahmood A. Khan, "The dollar will be much lower, especially

Hewlett Packard compared to Euro. This will spurt growth in
Services, Business
Strategy and exports of goods and services, especially in the
Implementation, area of computers, software, and health
Application sciences related products."
Outsourcing and
EAS Practice
Principal
Stephen Ibaraki, "When one of the world's largest holders of U.S.

CIPS Fellow currency reserves, China, with well in excess of
(FCIPS)
a trillion dollars, decides that there's a need to
diversify, and then takes notice. Expect more
pressures on the U.S. dollar providing new
opportunities for those who watch carefully."
Mark Rabkin, CEO, "The dollar will continue to weaken against

Closet Factory of foreign currencies through 2008."
Silicon Valley

Anyck Turgeon, "The Canadian dollar and the Euro will keep on
Chief of Market gaining points over the U.S. dollar."
Strategy &
Security at
Crossroads
Systems
Robert D. Cormia, "We are in a quandary over inflation--as the price

Associate of oil is now somewhat tied to a declining dollar,
Professor, Foothill
College which is tied to our debt, and flight from the dollar
will have a further upwards pressure on oil
prices. So our misdeeds at home (debt) affect
currency, which affects the price of energy (oil
and then gas), and flight from the dollar into
metal commodities drives up gold, suggesting
further we are in an inflationary period, when
actually the value of the dollar is the real issue."
Michael Britti, "Long-term value of the dollar and its use as a

CEO, TU Rental 'reserve' in the global economy is far more
Screening
Solutions important than any short-term market
adjustment."
Brad Peppard, "We will see a continuing weakness in the U.S.

Partner, dollar. As the U.S. fights recession, the value of
MarketingBank
the dollar relative to foreign currencies will
continue to fall. The only forces supporting it will
be the relatively inflationary policies of our
primary trading partners. No doubt some
European countries will take cover in the weak
dollar to avoid dealing with their internal
problems (specifically the costs of current social
welfare programs) as aggressively as they might
otherwise. Still, at the end of the day, we are still
a ways off from the bottom of the dollar versus
the Euro, and an even longer way off from the
bottom versus the Yuan."

Catherine Kitcho, "The U.S. Dollar's current decline in world
The Launch markets will lead to the beginning of a reversal in
Doctor, Author,
'Happy About offshoring because companies will find American
Being a Baby employees to be affordable again."
Boomer'
(Publisher: Happy
About)
Ian Browde, Global "U.S. dollar weakens: Increasingly large

Village Idiot and economies, corporations, and private individuals
Social
Technologist will shift significant aspects of their finances
away from the U.S. dollar, causing it to weaken
further. At the same time, in the margins but
increasingly present, alternatives to the global
money system will start getting publicity. These
exchange systems will include barter but they will
be more innovative than just local trading and
they'll be tried out in virtual environments like
Second Life."
Trend #4:
The Largest Asset Most People
have Becomes Somewhat of a
Liability!
Jon William Toigo, "We will begin to see the largest up tick in
CEO, Toigo foreclosures on private property since the
Partners
International Depression as the economy slows, layoffs
accelerate, and homeowners can't keep up the
payments on properties they purchased during
the housing valuation bubble."

Dave Nielsen, "National housing sales/prices continue to drop
Director, ISV & ~10% spurred on by the credit crisis and a
Developer
Program, Strike downturn in the job market. The bottom doesn't
Iron come until 2009. Some micro-regional pockets
like Silicon Valley increase by 10%."
Mark Moore, CEO, "The housing slowdown will continue through

Omni Agri 2008 and turn around starting in 2009. It will be
Resources LLC
the determining factor for the health of the
economy."
George L. Roman, "The sub-prime mess is worse than it seems.

Senior Enterprise Lots of people who thought they had built a large
Consultant,
Rockville, MD equity stake in their homes will learn that that
amount has shriveled up or even gone negative.
Spending will dry up and we'll see a recession."
Allan Kramer, "The real estate market will continue to slide with
Chairman of the further fallout from the sub-prime loan situation."
Board, Bridgebank
Johnny Khamis, "Housing prices will continue to go down but at a

Author, 'Costi and slower pace."
the Raindrop
Adventure'
(Publisher: Happy
About)
Mahmood A. Khan, "The financial Industry will bounce back towards

Hewlett Packard the later half of the years due to careful lowering
Services, Business
Strategy and of interest rate step-by-step and getting closer to
Implementation, 2%. This will lead to stabilizing of housing
Application markets and growth."
Outsourcing and
EAS Practice
Principal
Mark Rabkin, CEO, "Housing prices will continue to fall but this will
Closet Factory of be healthy as real estate has been over-valued
Silicon Valley
for several years."

Michael Britti, "The 'solutions' created by politicians in D.C. and
CEO, TU Rental the states will be worse for the economy than the
Screening
Solutions actual sub-prime meltdown and adjustments in
real estate value.
Phillip Howells, "Driven probably by the U.S. weakening

Self-Employed economy, the UK house price increase rate will
slow and the economy will suffer as people begin
to realize they have debt they cannot repay."
Robert Klag, "The sub-prime lending issue is expected to

Co-Author, impact the real estate markets. Strict credit
'Apartment
Management' evaluation has reduced the liquidity in capital
(Publisher: Happy markets and will hold down cap rates for
About) properties. We expect to see greater demand for
apartments which will drive rent increases over
the next year. Maybe next year."
Trend #5: The Internet ride

continues to thrill
Jim Sterne, "Social media moves from life as a curiosity to a

Chairman, competitive edge. What was exciting for kids and
http://WebAnalytic
sAssociation.org a necessity for students has crept into the
business world as a collaboration tool.
Companies that get it will allow it and their
employees will be more productive."
Sheridan Tatsuno, "Social networking for enterprises will lead to

Principal, new collaboration systems and business models.
Dreamscape
Global Example: iPhone and smartphone social
networking apps for field sales and fleet
management."

Gemma Lim, "Sales2.0 will take off. More deals will be closed
Co-Author, without any face-to-face interaction but instead
'Apartment
Management' through relationships developed over the Web. A
(Publisher: Happy leader in this revolution is Webex.com's
About) web-touch sales model, which has been the key
to the company's 100X revenue growth."
Richard Simoni, "In 2008, we'll see a large number of the Web 2.0
Partner, Asset companies funded in the past 4 years go out of
Management
Company business, as they fail to catch on in a big enough
way and run short of funding. These failures will
be largely under the radar, as the media doesn't
generally cover 15-employee companies that
fail. There will also be a handful of spectacular
Web 2.0 successes, which will garner
substantially more attention than the failures.
And, if the broader equity markets remain
long-term positive, we will see the return of the
dot-com IPO, based largely on the promise of
future monetization of a large user base."
Phillip Howells, "The Internet and social networking activities will

Self-Employed become ever more pervasive and we will be
aware of an increasingly 'virtual living' option in
life!"
Bryan D. Stolle, "Enterprise use of cloud-computing (aka: utility

Partner | MDV - computing) will have crossed 'the chasm' and
Mohr, Davidow
Ventures entered the tornado as Geoffrey Moore likes to
say. From utility models like Amazon's S3,
development/hosting platforms like Force.com,
or application providers like NetSuite,
SalesForce, Omniture, etc., enterprise
computing outside the four walls will become the
de facto standard."
Bobby Jadhav, "Social and consumer software will make big

CTO, Siterra strides both on platform and applications space."

Peter Paul Roosen, "While the Internet continues to bring more of the
Author, world into the growing community, it will become
'Overcoming
Inventoritis: The more regionalized in 2008. In well-established
Silent Killer of markets search engines will return increasingly
Innovation' regionalized results as commercial interests
(Publisher: Happy
About) continue to take greater control of this powerful
media."
Jean Paul Jacob, "Too many bytes are being created for business
IBM Research and by business. The Internet knows everything
Emeritus and
Visiting Scholar at but tells us almost nothing. We will see new ways
U.C. Berkeley to search for information with a strong
component of 'social networks and their wikis',
some of which will be economic forecasters. In
education, the Horizon Report is a good example
of a social network producing a wiki of
technological forecasts for education. It is only a
matter of months before other fields, including
business/economy catch up."
Brock Hinzmann, "Google, Microsoft, and other providers of

Technology real-world mapping data and who have
Navigator, SRI
Consulting introduced easy-to-use 3-D computer-aided
Business design software for use by average consumers,
Intelligence will form partnerships and adapt the technology
to form practical mashups in virtual worlds. Small
enterprises will be able to leverage mashups into
real business opportunities that expand their
normal geographical limitations."
Bill Cullifer, "Microsoft will start paying consumer users

Executive Director, sizable cash incentives and rebates to switch
World
Organization of from Google search to MSN Search. As a result,
Webmasters shares of Google will dip."
(WOW)

Peter Paul Roosen, "Blogging will reach its peak in 2008 if it hasn't
Author, already."
'Overcoming
Inventoritis: The
Silent Killer of
Innovation'
(Publisher: Happy
About)
Buddy Arnheim, "Online shopping is going to hit a record this

Partner/Member of winter, only to be surpassed next year beyond
Firm's Executive
Committee, expectations."
Perkins Coie LLP
Trend #6:
Rise of 'Chindia' Continues to
Threaten the U.S. as the Dominant
World Power
Mitchell Levy "A couple years ago, I thought it would be 10-20

CEO & Publisher years before the U.S. is not considered the #1
Happy About
world economic power. Now, I think it will happen
in the next 5 years.”
Stephen Ibaraki, "China--through its double-digit GDP continuing

CIPS Fellow growth, rapidly expanding consumer base,
(FCIPS)
world's largest manufacturing base, and market
potential of the U.S. and the European Union
times two--represents both a resource
opportunity and draw on the world. This will
continue to drive resource economies."
Deepika Bajaj, "Asia becomes a force to reckon with in the world

Founder and CEO, of business. Emerging countries like India and
Invincibelle
China will foster entrepreneurship and develop

products to serve the local markets. Examples
are Baidu.com: China's lead search engine; and
Reliance: India's largest telecom provider."
Stephen Ibaraki, "With 700,000 engineering and science

CIPS Fellow graduates a year, the largest representation of
(FCIPS)
graduate students, China is destined to be the
innovation leader for the world and in the
medium term. Overall Asia will have 90% of the
world's engineers and scientists in just a few
years. This represents a tremendous opportunity
for innovation and investment. The future is
grassroots-driven thought leadership and
collaboration enabled by the pervasive use of the
Internet, on mobile platforms, and by an
entrepreneurial population base, which honors
diligence, hard work, sacrifice, and scholarship.
With Internet usage soon to the world's largest,
cell phone usage larger than the next three
countries combined, China is perfectly situated
to lead this revolution. Watch for the rise of
‘Global Giants’ from China impacting every major
sector—the shift from West to East is happening
and it's now."
Barbara L. Harley, "In 2008, the trend of far fewer international

Author, attendees at U.S. universities and research
'International
Business institutions will continue because alternative
Incubation for locations (such as Australia, Brazil, China,
Global Trade' (to Sweden, UK) are working hard at recruiting and
be released Winter
2008) providing easier immigration processes.”
Axel Kloth, CTO, "The U.S. economy will see a strange

Parimics Inc. phenomenon in which its local economy seems
to recover, but by year's end (2008) the
devaluation of the Dollar and the resulting rise of
all other currencies will lead to near-collapse of
the U.S. economy, and the rise of India and
China to economic superpowers will continue

without the need for the U.S. market. The U.S. of
A will then completely reverse course and
de-globalize to save its local economy, with a
new theory of economics (more precisely: only
macroeconomics) behind it."
G. Mark Towhey, "The Chinese government has already voiced its

President, Towhey quiet threat to liquidate some of its U.S.
Consulting Group
Inc. denominated foreign reserves for more stable
currencies. While the Chinese threat is mere
posturing at this stage, since unwinding their
U.S. positions would further devalue the dollar
(and their own positions), it is indicative of a
broader move with, ultimately, disastrous
consequences for the U.S. economy–and much
of the western world."
Stephen Ibaraki, "Expect more examples of short-term 1 trillion-

CIPS Fellow dollar-market capitalization companies coming
(FCIPS)
from China [PetroChina is just the first].
However, in the medium term, the short term
promise will build into long-term reality. This
represents a unique opportunity for West and
East."
Rohit Talwar, CEO, China and India will slow their rates of economic
Fast Future growth but still grow at over 7%."
Peter C Harrison, "Any new government immigration legislation

Chief Executive that may materialize in 2008 will have little to no
Officer,
GlobalLogic Inc effect on the pace of offshoring."
"China will continue to grow as a percentage of

total U.S. IT outsourcing, but will still be only a
small fraction work sent to India."

Ralph Marx, CEO, "Economies worldwide were on a tear last year,
Advocate Systems, raising questions about the continued
Inc.
dominance of the U.S as an economic super
power. This will be the year where the list of
winners and losers starts to take shape. For
instance, once oil comes back down to
reasonable prices, will Russia really have a
second act in its playbook? No matter how things
shake out, it is clear that one can no longer
ignore the rest of the world when planning for
business growth and expansion."
Peter C Harrison, "Growth of outsourced R&D will continue to

Chief Executive outpace the growth of the overall offshoring
Officer,
GlobalLogic Inc. sector."
Dennis, Former "The Olympics will show case the changing

CEO, Okidata China to the world, a new realization for many."
Corporation
Phil Hood, "At least two Fortune 500 companies will be

Principal, bought by Chinese companies."
Transcend
Strategy Group
Trend #7:
Rapid Demographic Change and
Ways to Reach Them: The Internet
is Bringing about a Change in
Marketing and Advertising
Ian Browde, Global "Citizen Press and the beginning of the decline of
Village Idiot and the aligned media: where new forms of news
Social
Technologist services will arise on the Internet and people will
increasingly get their news from real people
experiencing real stories in their own

environments, and contributing text, images, and
even video clips via mobile devices and digital
cameras. This will herald the loss of power of the
media like the major newspapers and TV
stations that are all but owned by private
interests."
Jim Sterne, "Pay-per-click search marketing continues to be

Chairman, a money magnet. Newsworthy? Not really. More
http://WebAnalytic
sAssociation.org marketing companies are finally getting to it.
More marketers are finally getting the hang of it.
More people are going to use web analytics and
figure out how to optimize their ROI."
Michael Silton, "Pay-per-click will evolve to pay-per-sale."

CEO, Rainmaker
Catherine Kitcho, "The TV and film industry will (finally!) wake up

The Launch and realize that the currently coveted 18 to 49
Doctor, and
Author, 'Happy demographic is actually smaller than the 50+
About Being a audience that is expanding due to 78 million
Baby Boomer: aging Baby Boomers. Studios will begin targeting
Facing Our
Newfound more of their films and programming to older
Longevity' audiences."
(Publisher: Happy
About)
Jim Sterne, "Widgets will be the latest, cool marketing

Chairman, technique but will be massively difficult to
http://WebAnalytic
sAssociation.org master. Can you spell 'viral software
application'?"
Janek Kaliczak, "With over 150 million copies of World of

Senior Partner, Warcraft out there and up to 5-million people
Designing
Hyper-Spectral online worldwide, how are advertisers going to
Cameras, NSKR reach a generation of viewers who do not watch
(Research and TV, read a paper or own a telephone? My
Development
Group) prediction here is there is going to be a lot of

smooth talking going on in boardrooms to try and
correct this problem. Just think of the $10+ plus
a month per online subscriber per month."
Trend #8:
Ascendency of the Mobile Sector
Rohit Talwar, CEO, "The mobile phone will increasingly become our
Fast Future 'remote control for life'–gradually replacing
laptops–aided by projection screens and
keyboards and an increasing array of
functionality."
Janek Kaliczak, "Phone cameras will achieve full motion video

Senior Partner, recording and hi-resolution images with simple
Designing
Hyper-Spectral editing for both. We should thank Philippe Kahn
Cameras, NSKR for his invention here."
(Research and
Development
Group)
David H. Deans, "The formation of the Open Handset Alliance will

Managing Director, free the North American and European mobile
GeoActive Group
U.S.A. Internet consumer experience from the prior
limitations of the wireless service provider's
restrictive walled-gardens. These previously
handicapped markets will now be able to catch
up with the mobile multimedia global market
leaders (in Japan and South Korea)."
James E. Biorge, "The rising cost of fuel with reduced computer

Chairman/CEO, prices will encourage home and mobile office
LibertySmart
models that are dependent upon increased
security systems that authenticate the access by
device and user to enterprise systems from
anywhere at anytime."

Bobby Jadhav, "We will see a Mobile Internet (may be WiMAX)
CTO, Siterra and related devices/applications."
Dr. Gregory Alan "Cellphones will include WiMAX and VoIP as

Bolcer, VP standard features."
Engineering, High
Tower Software
Inc.
Janek Kaliczak, "State Public utilities commissions are going to

Senior Partner, be facing a problem as more people switch over
Designing
Hyper-Spectral from land lines to cell phones and web phones.
Cameras, NSKR Congress would be committing political suicide if
(Research and they tried to TAX or even change the way it is
Development
Group) happening now."
Trend #9:
Market Pressures Generate More
Innovation
Deepika Bajaj, "Consumers will lead the next level of innovation.

Founder and CEO, We observed the rise of consumer identity with
Invincibelle
Internet. Many consumers are used to getting
things for free online and pay for things that
increase their capacity to work and play. No
doubt, Google is the darling of consumers and
businesses."
James E. Biorge, "Look forward to seeing how the creative

Chairman/CEO, American mind finds ways around these
LibertySmart
challenges and proves that challenges are the
mother of invention."

Barbara L. Harley, "The size of U.S. markets and the exceptional
Author, investment opportunities for new companies and
'International
Business innovative technologies will continue to attract
Incubation for businesses despite the general negative feelings
Global Trade' (to expressed."
be released Winter
2008)
Jean Paul Jacob, "Business and the economy will start catching up
IBM Research with the fact that in our services economy, the
Emeritus and
Visiting Scholar at competitive advantage is given by innovation,
U.C. Berkeley and new companies and consultancies will
appear in the marketplace, helping business
innovate."
William Toigo, "'Do more with less' will become the driving
CEO, Toigo mantra in business information technology.
Partners
International Businesses will become much more concerned
about how they are managing infrastructure and
data within the context of three objectives:
driving labor costs out of operations, deferring
more technology acquisition, and ‘greening’
(reducing power consumption) in data centers."
Ross Sedgewick, "Consumers will backlash against being overrun

Director, Global by 7x24 communications technology, and that
Product Marketing,
Siemens will impact work life as well as people’s
Enterprise realization that always being connected really
Communications means distractions, fragmented focus,
interruptions, and ultimately attention deficit and
lost productivity."
Deepika Bajaj, "Gen Y will need more meaning at work. They

Founder and CEO, will demand training and more responsibility and
Invincibelle
more time. They will prefer working virtually and
in international locations. This generation is now
entering the work force and has more
opportunities than any generation before them.

The high turnover in these 20-somethings has
already made companies like Deloitte evaluate
work-life balance programs."
Anyck Turgeon, "Entrepreneurship will be on the rise in the

Chief of Market U.S.A. as employees will be pressed to work
Strategy &
Security at longer hours without much pay raises, given this
Crossroads recession."
Systems
Trend #10:
Hi-Tech and Software Evolve
Dramatically
Bob Worrall, CIO, "With the IT industry poised to take advantage of

Sun Microsystems more network-based, secure application
services, the role of IT will change significantly.
The traditional roles of applications developers
and operations support staff will give way to roles
such as vendor management, contracts
administration, and communications. Equally
important, the business analyst will continue to
be a vital role within the department. However,
that role will focus less on the actual design of
technological solutions and more on the
definition of clear business requirements, which
will be built and operated by trusted partners and
delivered as services over the Internet."
Bryan D. Stolle, "Enterprise IT spending will accelerate, driven by

Partner | MDV - line of business executives who need solutions
Mohr, Davidow
Ventures now, going outside constrained corporate IT
groups to solutions offered in the cloud (eg:
SaaS, Outsourced Business Process suppliers,
etc.)."

Robert D. Cormia, "Virtualization continues to drive the desktop /
Associate network environment, and virtual communities
Professor, Foothill
College comes into the mainstream from interpersonal
(long distance) business."
Jean Paul Jacob, "A new technology will find its place in the
IBM Research ‘spectrum of intimacy’ in communications where
Emeritus and
Visiting Scholar at e-mail is at one extreme and face-to-face
U.C. Berkeley meeting at the other extreme. New technologies
to occupy vacant positions in the
communications spectrum of intimacy are 3D
Virtual Worlds."
Axel Kloth, CTO, "Multi-Core CPUs (more precisely:

Parimics Inc homogeneous multi-core CPUs) will be not only
in the desktop and laptop, they'll penetrate the
embedded space too."
Dr. Gregory Alan "Class action lawsuits on behalf of users will

Bolcer, VP finally overwhelm IT bad practices for storage
Engineering, High
Tower Software and handling of sensitive customer data as the
Inc. number of data loss incidents explodes
exponentially."
Anyck Turgeon, "Data breaches will keep on increasing and

Chief of Market costing much to so-called 'advanced' nations as
Strategy &
Security at companies and the financial world are focusing
Crossroads on short-term profits.”
Systems
Dr. Gregory Alan "Intrusion detection systems will grow up from

Bolcer, VP focusing on down-in-the-trenches, real-time
Engineering, High
Tower Software detection to focus more on broad management
Inc. and integration of security data, events, and
incidents across all types of hardware and
software deployed in a business."

Axel Kloth, CTO, "The current model of writing, testing, and
Parimics Inc. deploying SW on these new multi-core CPUs
completely breaks since the resulting code does
not show performance advantages over
single-core CPUs, but requires a lot of
hand-coding of OS and application layer
software to just balance the load."
Ralph Marx, CEO, "One could describe Open Source software as a

Advocate Systems, ‘Two heads are better than one’ concept on
Inc.
steroids. The remaining stumbling block is to
create a fair system that properly rewards the
efforts of the brains and creativity that go into
pure inventing with the stifling effects that
patents can cause to overall technological
progress, and thus, the advancement of society
as a whole. This year will be the year where we
make some major strides in this area. Expect
influence from many sectors ranging from
Google to the courts."
George L. Roman, "Oracle will accelerate its domination of the

Senior Enterprise enterprise space. They've shown the world that
Consultant,
Rockville, MD they can skillfully integrate high value-add
acquisitions and deliver on the service
infrastructure required to support them."
Peter Ostrow, "Apple eliminates DRM altogether from iTUNES

President and song downloads."
CEO, Technical
Communities, Inc.
George L. Roman, "Apple will prove to be the Linux-on-the-desktop

Senior Enterprise solution that all the Open Source advocates wish
Consultant,
Rockville, MD they had. Apple will see 20% market share of the
desktop by year end."

Bonus Trend #1: On U.S.
elections and politics
Jim O'Toole, "The Democrats will win the Presidency and

Daniels secure both houses of Congress next November.
Distinguished
Professor of Both as a cause, and as a result, there will be
Business Ethics, increasing pressure to clean up the excesses of
Daniels College of Wall Street. When President Sarkozy of France
Business,
University of spoke to the joint session of Congress about
Denver those excesses, he was expressing what most
people around the world, including the majority of
Americans, feel. Now, the debate is public and it
will grow, and the salaries of CEOs of large
corporations will be the immediate subject of
criticism."
Dave Nielsen, "Democrats take the White House and stock

Director, ISV & market drops 10% at the end of the year, ending
Developer
Program, Strike a 6 year bull market and setting the tone for a
Iron 2009 bear market."
Evelyn Preston, "With recession threatening, American voters will

Author, 'Memoirs finally raise their collective voice and loudly
of the Money Lady'
(Publisher: Happy demand that a new President and do-nothing
About) Congress find realistic, bi-partisan solutions to
the rising health care, energy, and tax burdens."
Ric Urrutia, CEO, "In November, Hillary will be elected as our first
Taos Mountain female president."
Software
Anyck Turgeon, "U.S.A. launches a stronger war against illegal

Chief of Market immigrants and limits entrance of legal
Strategy &
Security at immigrants."
Crossroads
Systems

Frank Slootman, "Continued quagmire in Iran and Afghanistan,
President & CEO, more Islamic militant activity, including new
Data Domain, Inc.
terrorist attacks in Europe and North America."
Peter Paul Roosen, "The American empire reached its peak just
Author, before U.S. troops crossed the border into Iraq.
'Overcoming
Inventoritis: The 2008 will see further realignment and relative
Silent Killer of declines as the rest of the world challenges the
Innovation' U.S. position. The U.S. military will need to
(Publisher: Happy
About) maintain its strong presence in the Middle East to
prevent the euro and other currencies from
taking over the oil business."
Bonus Trend#2:
Biotech brings forth good
promise
Buddy Arnheim, "Pharma related will be under considerably

Partner/Member of regulatory pressure, despite the emergence of
Firm's Executive
Committee, some very interesting drugs. Good time to buy
Perkins Coie LLP those stocks."
Claes Gustafsson, "We will see the first publication of an organism

VP Sales & with a completely synthetic chromosome. It will
Marketing, DNA2.0
create significant media attention and large
interest in synthetic biology."
Bryan D. Stolle, "Personalized medicine will impact in a positive

Partner | MDV - way a majority of people in 2008, through better
Mohr, Davidow
Ventures diagnosis and choice of more effective
therapeutics."

Brock Hinzmann, "Neurological research will result in some new
Technology therapy within the next year. It could be curing a
Navigator, SRI
Consulting sleep disorder, migraine headaches, some
Business neurological disease, or the ability to recover
Intelligence some lost capability due to a sensory loss or
brain damage. It might be in combination with a
chemical or an implant, but ideally it will be a
noninvasive technique that does not need a
lengthy FDA approval period to reach the
market. So many people are conducting
research on the brain that I believe something
will pop out. Gamer interfaces have already been
introduced that use brain waves. This area will
grow."
Bonus Trend#3:
Interesting Tidbits
Peter Ostrow, "Yahoo is acquired or merges with an entity that

President and is as large as or larger than Yahoo."
CEO, Technical
Communities, Inc.
Rohit Talwar, CEO, "Investor interest will increasingly shift to

Fast Future post-conflict nations in Africa such as Angola and
the oil rich central Asian countries such as
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan."
Mark Moore, CEO, "The U.S. GDP will be 1.5-2.5%. Inflation will
Omni Agri stay in check (2%) but unemployment will rise
Resources LLC
above 5%."
Michael Silton, "Pay for performance will become the norm for
CEO, Rainmaker outsourcing relationships."

Dr. Ivan Misner, "Online and face-to-face networking will continue
Founder and to flourish. Online networking works, but
Chairman, BNI
relationships must still be part of the process.
The more ‘high tech’ business owners become,
the more and more they really need to foster
those ‘high touch’ opportunities that face-to-face
networking affords."
James E. Biorge, "The out of control costs for healthcare will

Chairman/CEO, motivate development of technology that
LibertySmart
optimizes consumer driven healthcare models,
preventing the disaster of government intrusion
while creating healthier and more productive
employees capable of standing up against global
competition."
Dr. Ivan Misner, "Small companies will continue to have the edge
Founder and over big companies relating to business
Chairman, BNI
networking. The problem is–big companies don't
effectively add referral marketing into the
process. When it comes to developing social
capital and the networking process, small
business is king."
Sheridan Tatsuno, "The Hollywood writers strike will drag on for

Principal, months, pushing more production overseas and
Dreamscape
Global creating opportunities for digital distributors."
Frank Slootman, "Environmental activism steps up: hybrids,

President & CEO, bottled water, recycling."
Data Domain, Inc.
Ian Browde, Global "Privatization of military systems--a softer way of

Village Idiot and saying mercenary military systems--will become
Social
Technologist more of an issue as various ‘wars’ against drugs,
immigrants, Iraqis, Afghanis, etc., get
outsourced."

Dennis, Former "Tourism in the U.S.A. will have a major boost in
CEO, Okidata 2008 due to currency imbalance with the rest of
Corporation
the world."
CONCLUSION
I have had the privilege and pleasure of talking
annually to thousands of business executives
who share their views and predictions on the
next year's economy. As detailed in Chapter 2,
you can see that the accuracy of my predictions
has been precise (with the exception of the year
2002). As you plan for the year's activities, taking
these predictions into consideration will allow
you to prepare, plan, and execute more
effectively.

C h a p t e r
4 2007 Predictions
This chapter focuses on predictions for 2007.

Although we've seen a number of these trends,
there are two mega trends that can be pulled
from these predictions: our natural resources are
diminishing and the US continues to become
less important on the world stage
• Trends # 1 & 2 deal with the world and the impact

that a growing industrial population has on it. As
our supply of natural resources continue to
diminish, these trends (unless reversed) will
continue to be a focus of business and consumer
alike.
• Trends #3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 & 10 deal with the

continued utilization of the Internet and its effect
on spreading capitalism around the world
After reading and digesting these trends, please

share your feedback. It's most certainly
welcomed.

Top Ten Trends for 2007:
NOTE The italics represent the accuracy of the

predictions as of 12/08/07
1. Global Warming/Environmental Concerns

Effect Business (right)
2. Energy Continues to Take Center Stage
(right)
3. The Internet Continues to Grab Mindshare
by Getting Incorporated into Daily
Processes (right)
4. The World Continues Going Mobile (right)
5. Marketing Starts Moving From and “Art” to a
“Science” (partial)
6. The US Dollar Becomes Less Important
(right)
7. Capitalism Continues to Spread Throughout
the World (right)
8. Rapid Adoption of Mass Customization
(partial)
9. Software Continues to Morph (right)
10. Online Networking Becomes a Key
Business Asset (partial)
Bonus trends:
1. Industries/Trends to Watch
2. Fun Predictions We Couldn't Resist
Including

Trend #1:
Global Warming/Environmental
Concerns Effect Business
Margaret "Global warming will start to impact consumer

Heffernan, Author, decisions and buying habits."
"The Naked Truth"
and "How She
Does It"
Deep Sahni, CEO, "Global warming will take center stage in the
Global Now media."
Christopher "Climate change concerns will drive a wholesale

Hazen, Managing re-evaluation of the "environmental" agenda by
Director, WSP
Environmental business and government, resulting in significant
Strategies regulatory and market changes. Among these,
the US Government will be forced, at the Federal
level, to begin drafting national legislation."
Robert D. Cormia, "In 2007, as one house of congress passes

Associate under democratic control, we will see legislation
Professor, Foothill
College working towards a formal 'cap and trade'
commitment to greenhouse gas reductions. It will
likely resemble the California legislation, but will
have additional requirements for mandatory
CAFE increase in mileage standards and energy
efficiency."
Bob Corbett, "Concern for the environment will move from

Principal, R.E. being a concern of a small lobby to become a
Corbett Associates
mainstream issue. This is the cumulative result
of Katrina, leadership at the city and state level
(note the recent legislation passed with
collaboration of Democratic-controlled
legislature and the Republican governor of

California.), and a plethora of natural resource
issues, including water contamination and
increased health awareness."
Andrew 'Flip' "Environmentally sensitive products that are

Filipowski, Owner, ‘green’ will become equally acceptable and
Chairman & CEO,
SilkRoad equity, pursued for profit by all political
Inc. factions.....Bio-degradable plastic bottles made
from organic materials will become the rage..."
Neerja Raman, Sr. "Global warming issues go beyond activism to

Research Fellow, technology solutions for alternative energy,
Stanford
University research investment and deployment."
Dave Asprey, Sr. "Continued climate change (helped along by

Manager, Strategic idiots in Washington) will cause companies to
Planning, Citrix
Systems seriously pay attention to disaster recovery and
business continuity. Insurers will demand strong
DR and BC procedures in order to insure against
business loss."
Andrew "Green. Green. Green. The color of money?

Greenberg, CEO, More than that, it's the mantra for corporate
Greenberg Brand
Strategy America. Today and tomorrow, F500 companies
will lean heavily on this moniker of currency,
claiming to have done well by the environment.
In an attempt to create good will and a better
relationship with its consumer, brands will tout
their royal 'green-ness'."
John Montgomery, "The second wave of the Internet will be evident

Partner, and the first wave of clean technology will be
Montgomery Law
Group, LLP rolling."
Christopher "Thin film solar technologies will drive the hottest

Hazen, Managing IPOs in 2007."
Director, WSP
Environmental
Strategies

Lawrence J. Udell, "In 2007 we will see a dramatic increase in both
Executive Director, famine and disease in areas of the world where
Intellectual
Property it is not a potentially profitable resource area
International, Ltd. such as mining, oil, etc. The over population in
these areas will have a huge resource drain on
the rest of the worlds financial resources."
Neerja Raman, Sr. "Investments in technology for social

Research Fellow, development goes mainstream. Corporations
Stanford
University form government partnerships to scale in
emerging economies for poverty reduction,
improved education. MIT style open courseware
becomes mainstream."
Richard Brenner, "As China prepares for the Olympic games, their
CEO, The Brenner environmental issues, such as pollution, will
Group, Inc.
become a worldwide concern, slowing economic
growth in that region."
Trend #2:
Energy Continues to Take Center
Stage
Andrew 'Flip' "Global warming will be recognized as a serious

Filipowski, Owner, issue by all political factions and alternative fuel
Chairman & CEO,
SilkRoad equity, sources will become more acceptable including
Inc. nuclear power generation...."
Kimberly Wiefling, "Alternative energy sources, underserved by the

Founder and centralized utility companies for decades, will be
President, Wiefling
Consulting boosted into high adoption rate by individual
consumers weary of waiting for transformation to
come from the big players. Dramatically
increased adoption by consumers will drive the
rapid expansion of alternative energy companies

and products, led by electric car manufacturers
offering cars that run on electricity powered by
solar powered house power supplies. Why do
you think Ford owns 1/3 of Mazda, the only
company in the world with a hydrogen-powered
car?"
Thomas M. Evans, "Within 24 months it will be generally

President, The Tax acknowledged that the solar cell is on the same
Co-Op, Inc.
revolutionary path as the integrated circuit.
Similar to what happened to the IC, cost per unit
of output will continue to decrease dramatically
thereby stimulating more demand, investment,
and research which will further cut
price/performance. This virtuous circle will reach
a ‘tipping point’ within five years when the
tangible economic benefits alone are sufficient to
switch to this power source. At that time,
mainstream planners in the housing,
transportation and other industries begin to
design in solar power as a standard alternative to
conventional sources of energy."
David Krueger MD, "Energy and raw materials will lead a tumultuous
Executive Mentor market upswing catalyzed by sporadic world
Coach
conflict. Refineries and organic resources must
be protected from direct contamination and
computer terrorism."
Ralph Marx, CEO, "Despite lower oil prices, alternative energy

Soiree companies will popup faster than tulips in the
spring time. Alternative fuels such as ethanol
have seen vast acceptance in the U.S. in the last
year. 2007 will likely be the year where
everything else takes hold. From conservation
methodologies to vast technical improvements
that create lower cost and greater efficiency
amongst all forms of energy production and
CONSUMPTION!"

Neerja Raman, Sr. "LED technology goes mainstream resulting in
Research Fellow, cheaper displays, more energy efficient lighting,
Stanford
University energy efficient buildings etc. Key Players GE,
Phillips, Osram...."
Robert D. Cormia, "As John Doer has said, greentech / cleantech

Associate will be key targets of venture funding, and NOT
Professor, Foothill
College singly because of oil prices, war, energy
independence, or climate change, but simply
because it's time to 'move on from carbon'."
Mark Rabkin, CEO, "There will continue to be a rising tide of

Closet Factory of investments in businesses around the macro
Silicon Valley
trends of clean, renewable sources of energy
that will be coupled with a desire to begin
reduction of greenhouse gasses to mitigate
global warning."
Brock Hinzmann, "Micro-Energy. New businesses will appear all

Technology over to make and sell devices that produce
NavigatorSRI
Consulting relatively small amounts of energy or that save
Business energy when they replace an existing device.
Intelligence These products will show up in the home, in
offices, in cars and trucks, and all over. They will
be based on solar, wind, water flow, temperature
change, body motion, or whatever force that
generates a little bit of energy that can be
saved."

Trend #3:
The Internet Continues to Grab
Mindshare by Getting
Incorporated into Daily Processes
Buddy Arnheim, "The Internet will continue to grab mindshare and

Partner/Member of leisure time from the US population, as people
Firm's Executive
Committee, transform their use of the Internet from 'search
Perkins Coie LLP and retrieve' to 'receive and interact.”
Richard "The world is moving past Web 2.0, at least as it

Hasenpflug, is often defined. The most interesting
President, R.L.
Hasenpflug & developments on the Internet will be beyond the
Associates traditional concepts of Web 2.0 as simply a
vehicle for enhanced collaboration and
integration, moving instead into new paradigms
for work and social structures. These require not
just new technologies and applications, but
fundamental changes in the way we work and
live."
Jean Paul Jacob, "The convergence of telephone, instant

Emeritus, IBM messaging, texting, movie making, browsers that
Research
can modify a "site", browsers which know which
other browsers are in the same space, etc, will
start to happen in 3D Massive Multiplayer Online
Environments, of which Second Life is a good
example."
Stephen Ibaraki, "Expect wider enterprise adoption of Web 2.0

CIPS Fellow through broader acceptance of enabling tools
(FCIPS)
and users demanding more. Consumers lead the
charge and then enterprises follow. Look at
history with the internet, cell phones, and e-mail.
Converged user experiences with integrated:
blogs, shared rich media (podcasts, photos,
videos), group collaboration (wikis, "Groove"

networks), personal communications (VoIP,
instant messaging, web-video), user tagging and
content control--create an expectation and
demand that will reach further into enterprises as
these experiences become the norm with
consumers. Moreover, expect to see this
transformation growing into a wider build-out of
3-D like virtual worlds and experiences. The
journey to wider main-stream acceptance will
begin in 2007 where users create online virtual
world economies with links to real dollars. This
will focus business, education, media and finally
governments into these virtual world
environments."
Mike Bradley, "Businesses and organizations from micro to

Managing Director, multinational will increasingly adopt and obtain
4tech Support - the
Nationwide IT enormous productivity gains from the adoption of
Support Service the smarter working practices made possible
for SMEs with the use of audio and web collaboration tools.
They will improve communications, optimize
resources, reduce costs, enhance competitive
advantage, extend global reach, improve crisis
management and more smoothly manage
change.
Mark Rabkin, CEO, "Either Skype or Youtube will turn out to be the
Closet Factory of Netscape of Web 2.0. Ushering in the next wave
Silicon Valley
of high-technology investments both early-stage
and IPOs. There will be a boom but as in the past
only a few long-term winners. And perhaps fewer
exit strategies will include an IPO with more
companies being bought by the likes of Google,
Microsoft, eBay and Amazon as the turf war for
the desknet continues. "
Brian Lawley, "Web 2.0 and many interesting new ideas will
President & continue to emerge. Startups in this area that
Founder, 280
Group LLC gain momentum and user bases rapidly will be

snapped up within 12-18 months (or less) by
Google and other players looking for "Land
Grab" opportunities. Most of the others will find
that the barrier to entry is too low to justify
keeping the doors open."
Peter Ostrow, "Business to business Internet-based firms will

President and make a comeback in valuations and begin to
CEO, Technical
Communities trade at a 7-10X EBITDA multiples in 2006. This
is a result of the fact the public market will begin
to recognize that the Internet brings efficiencies
and communities to the B2B market in a similar
manner as they do to the C2C market."
Dave Asprey, Sr. "2007 will be the year of virtualization. Server

Manager, Strategic virtualization, desktop virtualization, and data
Planning, Citrix
Systems center virtualization will combine to make it
economically and technically attractive for IT
administrators to deploy Windows desktops in
data centers instead of end user PCs, providing
data-center-level security and availability to end
user applications."
Michael Worry, "Virtual meetings, in worlds such as Second Life,

CEO, Nuvation will become accepted forms of business
communication."
Ed Lambert, VP, "The next generation of Web 2.0 companies will

Bridge Bank focus on actual sales models vs. eyeballs."
Dr. Gregory Alan "Internet Collaboration. Yes, 'Collaboration'

Bolcer, Chief means everything to everybody (and thus nuthin
Software Architect,
Encryptanet, Inc. to nobody), but expect it to become a hot area
again as competition between Google and
Microsoft heat up. Collaboration this time around
will mean 'Internet-enabling' desktop
applications for joint use."

Ian Kaye FCCA "As we come to the end of 2006 we can already
MBA, Director, ISK see that traditional areas of the economy are
Limited
being surpassed by the youthful online market.
Noticeably in the UK we have seen Google
outweigh advertising income compared to the TV
channels. Similarly I predict other areas of the
economy will be larger online then offline. A
specific example I am involved with - recruitment
- by the end of 2007 we will see more advertising
on online job boards then in the more traditional
newspaper based adverts."
Mike Myatt, "In 2007 there will be a dramatic

Managing Director, macro-economic consolidation impacting social
Chief Strategy
Officer, N2growth media. While the social media industry as a
whole will continue its overall expansion as well
as increasing in acceptance and popularity, 2007
will signal the beginning of a much needed
regression to the mean…it is a sustainable
medium that will be a long-term survivor forever
changing the way we interact."
Trend #4:
The World Continues Going
Mobile
George Roman, "2007 continues the March of the Handheld.

Senior Enterprise Phones, PDAs, cameras and mpeg players get
Consultant, Arion
Systems Inc. cheaper and more powerful, and now they'll be
integrated in ways most people will love."
Rodger Raderman, "In 2007, a video shot with a mobile phone will be
Co-founder, seen by the world."
Veeker

Brad Peppard, "Games finally reach US cell phones in a serious
Managing Partner, way."
Marketing Bank
George Roman, "WiMax will prove it's for real, and give the telcos
Senior Enterprise and cable companies a run for their money."
Consultant, Arion
Systems Inc.
Hannah Kain, CEO, "Functionality of mobile phones will increase --

ALOM every second new phone will have GPS."
Gary Rudman, "As this generation of teens who we refer to as

Founder and 'Technomads' get more and more mobile, they'll
President, GTR
Consulting become less likely to connect with traditional
advertising media. Marketers will have to
consider the “third screen,” (cell phones/video
iPods, etc.) and develop strategies to optimize
and deliver message content appropriate to
those devices."
Trend #5:
Marketing Morphs While
Becoming More Quantifiable
Jim Sterne, "'Web analytics'" will make the transition to

President, Target 'marketing optimization' as more companies
Marketing
realize that online behavior provides a clear
picture of the desires of the marketplace. More
companies will alter their offline efforts as a result
of observing online activity which will result in
higher customer loyalty and market share."

Chris Consorte, "Advertising will become ROI focused. Lead
President & CEO, generation and acquisition marketing will
Integrated
Worldwide continue to gain popularity. Pay per call and
other prospecting and acquisition methods will
begin to see larger shares of the ad market."
Vijay S. Chattha, "The business of public relations will rely more

Chief Talker, on quantitative tools than any year before it."
VSC Consulting
Jim Sterne, "Internet marketing no longer belongs to the

President, Target early adopters. We are well into the tall part of the
Marketing
Crossing the Chasm bell curve. The amount of
money spent for online marketing will continue to
hit all time highs as larger percentages of
marketing and advertising budgets are dedicated
online efforts."
David Krueger MD, "Neuroscience and psychological research of

Executive Mentor money behavior and financial decisions
Coach
(Behavioral Economics) will be applied in
innovative marketing strategies to transcend
current paradigms."
Mark Walsh, "Key TV viewing demographics will become

Managing Partner, more and more striated: 15-30 year olds
Ruxton Ventures
LLC becoming web streaming personalized
entertainment consumers, 55+ watching
traditional network programming. In between will
be advertisers "bread and butter", but will be
more and more difficult to amass volumes of... so
major annual destination viewing (Super Bowl,
etc.) will become more crucial for brand
building."
Jim Sterne, "Companies will continue to Not Get It when it

President, Target comes to the Cluetrain Manifesto admonition that
Marketing
markets are conversations. They will continue to
make embarrassing gaffes by trying to

manipulate that conversation (as WalMart did in
2006). A handful of firms will get lucky and learn
not to push against the social network, but
embrace it as Coke and Mentos did. But only a
couple will find new and exciting ways to help
promote the conversation - which will give them
a serious competitive edge."
Chris Consorte, "Animation will continue to gain popularity in both

President & CEO, the advertising and entertainment worlds.
Integrated
Worldwide Low-cost animation will replace high-cost
celebrity talent -- and companies will begin to use
animation in their overall image marketing
campaigns."
Trend #6:
The US Dollar Becomes Less
Important
Kim Singh, "The US will see its global position erode further
Executive Director, via a via China in 2007. The balance of trade will
Asian American
Public Policy tilt even more markedly in favor of China. The US
Institute will continue to lose jobs due to outsourcing to
China and India. The US economy will continue
to be underwritten significantly by the Chinese."
Ravi Thatte, "China will allow the Chinese currency to move

Executive Director closer to its real value (the gap between the real
/ Coach, Dixtinct
Services Pte Ltd and the regulated value will become less
unreasonable than before but will still continue to
be unreasonable). This will enable the dollar to
maintain its bloated value for another year. The
Euro will get stronger."

Brad Peppard, "No decline in deficits, but another hit to the
Managing Partner, dollar: 10% to 15%. It would be a lot more except
Marketing Bank
that further declines (after the 30% over the last
few years) will make US exports competitive,
plus Europe isn't doing so well so they'll inflate
along with us, plus we're still the main reserve
currency so it hurts everyone to see the dollar
drop. Note that we used to be the only reserve
currency, but we're losing steadily to the Euro.
Expect countries to hold 20% to 30% of their
reserve in Euros in the future, with the balance in
dollars."
NOTE If the following doesn't happen, there'll be

a continued exodus of companies to non-US
stock exchanges.
Lawrence Dietz, "Corporate 'panic' over Sarbannes Oxley will

Research Director, subside as the marketplace, law makers, and the
Sageza Research
judicial system agree on what is normal. A
common sense approach will dominate where
solid governance, noble intentions and clear,
complete documentation constitute compliance."
Ed Lambert, VP, "There will be increased lobbying attempts to

Bridge Bank lighten the impact of Sarbanes Oxley as the M
and A and foreign IPO markets continue to grow
as alternatives."

Trend #7:
Capitalism Continues to Spread
Throughout the World
Ravi Thatte, "Sounds almost like a no-brainer but China, India

Executive Director will continue to grow at speeds not known to the
/ Coach, Dixtinct
Services Pte Ltd western world since years. In addition, there will
be other economies that will start growing at a
furious pace - Vietnam, Burma, Indonesia and
Pakistan. For the last three, politics will be the
only risk/constraint. Since the size of those
economies are relatively small, their
achievements will go largely unnoticed."
Kimberly Wiefling, "Expect a surprising rise in Japanese creativity

Founder and and innovation as Japan leaves the low ground
President, Wiefling
Consulting of 'better, faster, cheaper' to China and India for
more profitable business territory. Western
business people may not see this coming due to
outdated notions of a risk-averse Japan where
failure was fatal. Now entrepreneurism and
innovation are driving the collective
consciousness of Japan to strive with great
intensity toward another economic
transformation every bit as big as the one
Demming helped catalyze in the 1950's."
Jim Anderson, "In order to maintain productivity growth and

President, SVB profits U.S. companies will accelerate their
Analytics
efforts to arbitrage labor rates internationally.
This will impact software development and
service sector support jobs most dramatically.
Despite a wage pricing advantage which has
declined from 20:1 to 7:1, no U.S. market
participant will be able to ignore the benefit that
remains in the face of a weakening economic
environment."

Stephen Ibaraki, "Expect mobile and wireless business models in
CIPS Fellow Asia driving adoption of similar models in the
(FCIPS)
West. The Eastern leadership becomes more
pronounced in 2007. West first, China second is
now evolving into China first, West second. The
dynamo that is China, which I forecasted 4 years
ago as a force to be recommended with, will now
become the force to lead the world."
Hannah Kain, CEO, "Chinese prices will increase -- both due to the
ALOM currency rate and due to normal competitive
behavior."
Ulysses Wong, VP, "The global economy will gain robustness,

Sales and placing a premium on effective global
Business
Development, Alps relationships."
Electric
Jack Yan, CEO, "Another major, global fund-raising effort

Jack Yan & illustrates that social responsibility actually helps
Associates
companies' bottom lines."
Lawrence J. Udell, "The acquisition spree of the big getting bigger

Executive Director, will dominate the business and economic
Intellectual
Property landscape and create drastic problems for the
International, Ltd. establishment of new ventures and innovation.
America was founded by individuals with ideas
and the opportunities were obvious. The huge
investment portfolios controlled by greed will
destroy this freedom."

Trend #8:
Rapid Adoption of Mass
Customization
Brock Hinzmann, "Cocreation Services. Businesses will become

Technology interactive with customers to create new
Navigator, SRI
Consulting versions of products and services of all kinds,
Business from food to toys to manufactured business
Intelligence supplies. In most cases, such services will start
out as a make-your-own kind of service, where
the business provides a place, tools, and starting
materials. Eventually, the business will
cherry-pick the best items or recipes and make
them and most of the customers will learn to
quick making their own and just buy the best
picks."
Patricia Seybold, "'Customer Empowerment'" will be a Popular

CEO, Patricia Strategic Initiative in 2007: Customer
Seybold Group
empowerment is an easy concept around which
employees and partners can align. Customer
loyalty, customer experience and customer
self-service initiatives have all had their heydays.
Customer empowerment combines all three
concepts into a simple, easy-to-understand test:
Are we empowering our customers? Does this
action we're contemplating empower or
dis-empower our customers?
The Goal: Empower our customers to get the

results they care about. How do we do this?
We enable customers to serve themselves. We

make it easy for them to find things. We make it
easy for them to accomplish their tasks. We
streamline their processes. We empower
customers to roll their own solutions, to
customize and extend our products. We help

them innovate. We make it easy for them to strut
their stuff by sharing their ideas and creations so
that others can appreciate them, re-use them
and build upon them. Empowered customers are
loyal, profitable and enthusiastic customers.
They'll grow your business!"
Stephen Ibaraki, "2007 is all about the user experience and

CIPS Fellow consumer personalization driving business,
(FCIPS)
government, industry, education, and media.
Technology does not drive business, the
consumer, and user; rather the user/consumer
drives business and this in turn is a catalyst for
technology. The question is no longer about
learning the technology and seeing how it can be
used but what the consumer/user expects,
wants, needs, what is the context for this
experience, and then how can technology enable
it. Consumers/users determine and drive
technological innovation."
Rajesh Setty, "Co-operative applications will become more

President, common. This will range from simple mashups to
Foresight Plus,
LLC leasing and licensing other applications to build
their own applications. The reason is simple -
why re-invent the wheel?"
David H. Deans, "The notion of a mass-market is finally laid to

Managing Director, rest, as marketers uncover effective ways to
GeoActive Group
USA reach clusters of individual consumers that have
similar lifestyles, interests and behaviors. At
least one big multinational ad agency will fail to
evolve, by embracing this transformation. As a
result, they will be disregarded as fossils from a
bygone era."

Brock Hinzmann, "Intimate Computing. We will see increasing
Technology numbers and types of personal, wearable
Navigator, SRI
Consulting sensing and recording devices that will be
Business intimate to our bodies as well as be sensing and
Intelligence recording intimate details of our lives, which will
be shared with increasing numbers of other
people, including healthcare providers, family,
and friends. Lifeblog projects are underway,
sponsored by Microsoft, Nokia, and others, to
record and make sense of personal information.
Eventually, our daily blogs could be
semi-automated, much as sports and financial
news releases are increasingly written by
softbots today. Even if we maintain editorial
control, laziness or hackers will eventually lead
to large amounts of intimate details being
revealed. Even though we know our robotic
servants are there, listening to our every word,
anticipating how to serve us even before we
know what it is we want (something I refer to as
the Gosford Park phenomenon), we will become
accustomed to ignoring them and the privacy
implications. As sensors and interfaces based on
nanotechnology become more widespread, the
intimacy of details will reach the cellular level."
Trend #9:
Software Continues to Morph
Rajesh Setty, "Open source will continue to change the

President, software landscape. Being one of the founders of
Foresight Plus,
LLC an open source company in late 2000, I have had
an opportunity to watch this space keenly. The
time has now come for open source. Saying that
Open Source will take over is a bit extreme but in
2007, we will see that Open Source will
significantly change the software landscape."

Dr. Gregory Alan "Free-to-Play! We've been through all possible
Bolcer, Chief combinations of letter-2-letter the past
Software Architect,
Encryptanet, Inc. decade--this year's hot item will be F2P. F2P
allows any software, but Internet gaming
software at first, to be freely available, but
include small downloadable or unlockable
components that are purchased through a
micro-commerce channel. Imagine getting a
copy of Microsoft Office 2007 with basic editing
features for free, but adding in the image
manipulation, effects, and clip art components
for a much smaller purchase price than buying
the whole suite of software. Korea invented this
technique of upselling users after giving away
the game. See this technique to make a big
splash in North America with both gaming and
corporate software publishers."
Amy D. Wohl, "SaaS market will flourish like wild fire - not just
Editor, Amy Wohl's for SMBs. Software from China and India will
Opinions and
President, Wohl start to be a factor in the US market. Google will
Associates stop fooling around and start offering a complete
on-line office suite. Microsoft will have to
counter."
Moses Ma, Partner, "There will be continued uptake for Ruby (500K
Next Generation downloads and going strong), the open source
Ventures
"meta-programming" language, and Rails,
Ruby's full-stack framework for web application
development. This is possibly the most important
open-source project to be introduced in the past
10 years. It has an elegant syntax that is natural
to read and easy to write. For example, it takes
only 58 lines of code to create an Ajax-enabled
weblog application."

Frank Cohen, "Enterprise CIOs will be very happy to see IT
founder of operations costs reduce as the efforts behind
PushToTest
Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) and Master
Data Management (MDM) merge."
Trend #10:
Online Networking Becomes a Key
Business Asset
Patricia Seybold, "Rapid Growth in Online B2B Customer

CEO, Patricia Communities: While MySpace and Facebook
Seybold Group
and other social networking sites attract mobs of
teens and other consumers, business
professionals will be expecting their suppliers to
offer online communities of knowledgeable peers
who can explain and help support the suppliers'
products in ways that only other knowledgeable
users can.
Do you have a strategy in place to attract, nurture

and support a vibrant online customer
community?"
Julia Hubbel, "The art of charisma will determine success.

President, The People are realizing that hard-core sales
Hubbel Group Inc.
techniques, managing by title, intimidation and
status no longer work. Old school ways of
influencing people don\'t work with the younger
generations and the older generations are tired
of being browbeaten. The most successful
people in the world spend about 54% of their
time building and maintaining relationships- it\'s
how they do it that makes them unique. They are
about creating value, being empathetic, helping
others be successful, listening with intent,
focusing on making a difference, and leaving

others feeling larger than how they felt at the
beginning of the conversation. These skills will
increasingly be in demand in our leaders and in
our everyday managers because they will be the
influencers of tomorrow. We are in the Century of
the Network, and it belongs to those who know
how to move other people's lives with grace and
courtesy."
Dr. Ivan Misner, "The current trend in networking and social

Founder & capital education will emerge in the form of
Chairman, BNI
private professional training organizations in
much the same way that private industry has
controlled the educational market on “sales
techniques” (another area that colleges fail
miserably). Companies like the Referral Institute
(www.referralinstitute.com) that are offering a
series of trainings specific to the techniques and
systems of networking, social capital, and
referral marketing are starting to pop up with a
very refined and polished slate of seminars and
trainings for those business owners who want to
learn how to harness the power of word-of-mouth
marketing."
Ian Kaye FCCA "Consolidating this will be the continued growth

MBA, Director, ISK of social platforms like Facebook and myspace.
Limited
I think niche platforms will also spring up -
allowing more communication and more areas of
the economy to be conducted online"

Bonus: Industries/Trends to
Watch
Companies Influencing the
Landscape (Apple)
Peter Ostrow, "IPOD market share will decline by at least 10%

President and in 2006 as the market responds to competitive
CEO, Technical
Communities offerings on the hardware side by Microsoft and
others and begins to penalize Apple for its DRM
issues."
Jeffrey S. Young, "Apple Computer will become the leading

Author, Rose distributor of studio movies over the Internet,
Springs
expanding its iTunes business into iVideo. As
part of this effort the company will also invade the
home entertainment arena and dislodge all the
traditional home electronics companies,
reinventing itself as a digital entertainment
company. The iPod will trash Microsoft's Zune,
and every other competitor, and the company will
have to split its stock again."

Landscape (Google)
Jeffrey S. Young, "Google will continue to defeat everyone in

Author, Rose monetizing search and expanding its franchises.
Springs
The You Tube acquisition will make no sense
economically, but will be a giant win in terms of
visibility and continuing to give Google the
leading spot in mind share over the development
of online video. The stock will move past $750 a
share on its way to $1000."

Phil Hood, "Google stock will hit $600 in July, 2007."
Principal,
Transcend
Strategy Group
Dean Lane, CEO, "Google stock will rise above $600.00 per share."
VariTRAK, Inc.

Landscape (Microsoft)
Richard Brenner, "Microsoft VISTA will reinvigorate PC sales

CEO, The Brenner worldwide, and the demand for semiconductors
Group, Inc.
and systems will increase by at least 10%
worldwide over 2006."
Moses Ma, Partner, "Office 2007 is going to become the next big
Next Generation thing... it's not just an application, it's a brand
Ventures
new Internet platform. We'll see enterprise
applications taking advantage of new capabilities
to create a new breed of solution. It's not
middleware, it's 'officeware'."
Brad Peppard, "Vista, of course. It's a no-brainer to say that it

Managing Partner, will be a huge success. Or is it? Has Microsoft's
Marketing Bank
time finally come? I'm betting with Steve
Ballmer, that this is going to herald a renaissance
in Microsoft's fortunes. Their stock is up 38% this
year, from what was effectively a five year low
about six months ago. But I expect the joint
release of a new OS and a new Office to set
record revenues for msft. For the rest of
computing, this is going to be a very good thing,
injecting excitement and creating new
opportunities across the board: for both
hardware and software."

Dean Lane, CEO, "There will be growing concern about Microsoft’s
VariTRAK, Inc. Operating System, Vista, and its proprietary
nature."
Consumer
Rich Goldman, VP, "Consumer Wars will reign throughout the year,
Strategic Market with Microsoft on the short end. Microsoft's Zune
Development,
Synopsys won't make a dent in Apple's iPod kingdom.
Sony's PS3 will take market share from the Xbox
360, and Microsoft's Vista will prove to be a
nonevent. (Who needs another search engine
when Google rules the world?) Nevertheless,
Microsoft will log another good year of profits.
You will need all your toes and fingers to count all
the new portable video devices. Meanwhile,
consumers are completely confused about HD
DVD vs. Sony's BluRay, and will stay away from
buying either. It is the Beta vs. VHS of the
decade."
Gary Rudman, "Teens are faced with more and more stress.
Founder and They are always plugged in to the Internet, tuned
President, GTR
Consulting in, and connected with their friends and the
world. As they mature and deal with more
technology and more responsibility, what we call
Brain Blur is going to turn into absolute overload.
Teens will look for ways to step back and
distance themselves from overwhelming
pressure in their lives. In the not-too-distant
future, they will search for 'safe,' comfortable,
stress-free ways to unplug."
Ralph Marx, CEO, "The individual is now empowered with a whole

Soiree new ability to communicate to the world and to
express themselves. The next phase will be one
of skepticsm over what is real and what is not as

well as a need to be protected from the vast
amounts of relevant data. It will be incredibly
interesting to see how these problems are solved
and by whom."
John Spence, "It will continue to be a 'War for Talent.'

Executive Companies are realizing more and more that the
Educator, John
Spence Consulting only sustainable competitive advantages left are
truly talented people and consistently superior
customer service (which of course is delivered
by... truly talented people!). Location,
technology, access to capital, scale, proprietary
processes... are all diminishing as ways to
differentiate your business and dominate a
market. In today's global marketplace products
are becoming commodities - only the
"experience" of purchasing them is what sets
one apart from another. So what is the killer app
of today? Bright people who dazzle and surprise
customers with consistently superior service."
Healthcare
Hannah Kain, CEO, "Healthcare reform will come from the private
ALOM industry, not from the politicians. WalMart's drug
sales for $4 is just the start."
Bob Corbett, "The USA will have universal health care within 5
Principal, R.E. years. Unlike previous eras when doctors and
Corbett Associates
business leaders opposed 'socialized medicine',
big business and labor are now behind it.
Business leaders want a health care solution
which levels the playing field with offshore
manufacturers. Detroit is 'making noises about
the need and labor has always been behind it.
Institutions are ready to have their costs reduced
from today's mandatory emergency care."

David Krueger MD, "Scientific findings will increasingly demonstrate
Executive Mentor the use of vitamins and nutritional supplements
Coach
in health enhancement as well as disease
prevention and treatment, partly in response to a
worsening healthcare crisis. Organic growers,
supplement makers, and micro farms will
experience growth in the high double digits."
Housing
Christopher "Growth in new multi-purpose, high-density

Hazen, Managing commercial/residential developments will
Director, WSP
Environmental outpace the housing sector as a whole."
Strategies
Andrew 'Flip' "The housing bubble will return after only a brief
Filipowski, Owner, plateau as the baby boomers insist on a multiple
Chairman & CEO,
SilkRoad equity, homes especially near the coast.....and begin
Inc. acquiring in anticipation of a booming market
trying to buy at the bottom...."
Mark Walsh, "Pockets of deep housing cost depression will

Managing Partner, appear, similar to southern California in the
Ruxton Ventures
LLC eighties, causing bank-stock depression and a
more general malaise. High-end vacation
homes will stay strong."
Mark Rabkin, CEO, "The housing market slowdown will be the

Closet Factory of number one economic impact story of 2007.
Silicon Valley
However, I believe the slowdown will be a
relatively soft one buoyed by lowered interest
rates by the Federal Reserve in the latter part of
2007 in preparation for the 2008 Presidential
election season."

Phil Hood, "In late 2007 the country will experience a sharp
Principal, recession. Eighty percent of the time, real estate
Transcend
Strategy Group downturns such as we experienced in 2006 are
followed by stock market downturns a year later.
It will be over quickly, unless monetary policy
makers react stupidly."
Mike Heintz, "If the housing market continues to be slow and

President, people are not moving because they cannot get
University Electric
their asking price then we will see more kitchen
and bathroom remodeling because people are
not going to remodel only to move. This is what
happened in the early 90s and also in 2004."
Market/Financial/M&A
Warren Myer, CEO, "Fed cuts interest rates in Q3, Foreclosures rise
Myers Internet to record levels, Stock market (DJIA) is up 15%
for 2007."
Ric Urrutia, CEO, "M&A will be up, Nasdaq will be up, IPO will be
Taos Mountain slow, more startups being funded so IPO back
Software
but not next year, etc."
John Montgomery, "There will be an increase in the number of IPOs

Partner, of venture capital backed companies."
Montgomery Law
Group, LLP
Jay Conrad "Our economy will flourish as a result of our

Levinson, the increase vigilance."
father of Guerilla
Marketing
Love Goel, "Private equity firms will continue to acquire

Chairman & CEO, companies at an ever increasing pace.
Growth Ventures
Group Companies will have to reorganize and reorient
themselves to become competitive with
private-equity owned companies - i) they will

have to attract and build strong management
teams, ii) they will have to hold these teams
accountable, and iii) they will have to take a
longer term perspective focused on creating
sustainable value. Or else, they might become
attractive candidates for buy-outs."
Love Goel, "Multi-channel players (i.e. bricks and clicks

Chairman & CEO, companies) across several sectors - retail,
Growth Ventures
Group financial services, media, travel - will accelerate
taking online market share from pure play
internet leaders like Yahoo, eBay, Amazon,
Expedia and eTrade."
Buddy Arnheim, "The tech economy will continue to grow, with

Partner/Member of large investments in communications
Firm's Executive
Committee, infrastructure and new dramatic pharma and
Perkins Coie LLP med device breakthroughs."
Bill Lockyer, "California will make significant strides in

California Attorney extending health coverage to uninsured and
General
reforming system to try to control costs.
Infrastructure investment in California will
continue to ramp up dramatically. California bond
sales will double or triple during year compared
to previous high volumes."
Outsourcing
Axel K. Kloth, CTO, "India and China as low-cost outsourcing

Parimics countries will be replaced by Eastern European
countries, with much higher initial quality
hardware and software engineers, and shorter
project times than we ever saw in China or India."

Bill Widmer, CEO, "Offshoring will migrate to bestshoring and
g8solutions nearshoring. Rising labor costs in India, quality
issues arising from labor transitions, and
potential political issues will move work into Viet
Nam, eastern Europe, South America and yes,
back to North America. This best shore approach
will provide full business recovery capabilities,
improved service quality and overall lower
blended costs."
Bill Widmer, CEO, "Over the last few years organizations have been
g8solutions outsourcing activities in a piecemeal fashion to
best of breed companies-in a 'smartsourcing'
fashion. The outsourcers have quietly been
evolving from strong niche players into vertically
integrated service partners--very similar to the
major industries of the late 80's and 90's but with
the benefit of having its infrastructure leveraged
across many more revenue streams. This shift
has now allowed the outsourcing organizations
to also start going back to having only one
source for multiple needs, eliminating the smart
source culture and allowing the industry to go
back to a one call sourcing as it was 10-15 years
ago. This will lead to growth of the big
outsourcers and a slow death (by attrition or
acquisition) of the smaller niche players."
Regulation
Mark Walsh, "Air travel will become so striated between the

Managing Partner, "fully vetted with retinal scans or other
Ruxton Ventures
LLC biometrics" versus the common masses that the
travel industry will begin crisis mode and a steep
decline... HDTV Videoconferencing will become
a viable alternative, as will "NetJets" style
individual flights."

Anyck Turgeon, "More security regulations and compliance
Chief of Market requirements will be deployed in the USA and
Strategy and
Security, Europe."
Crossroads
Semiconductor Industry
Rich Goldman, VP, "The Semiconductor industry will stay in a

Strategic Market Goldilocks environment, not too hot, not too cold,
Development,
Synopsys just nice steady growth of under 10% with a few
scary moments (a k a inventory corrections)
thrown in for good measure. Growth will be led
by SRAM to power all those new MP3 players,
digital cameras and other great consumer
gadgets, and Foundries will continue to gain
market share. Nonetheless, watch out if you start
hearing people say that we have broken out of
the semiconductor cycles. If you hear this, then
you can sure we are headed for a downturn."
Axel K. Kloth, CTO, "General-purpose multi-core CPUs are going to

Parimics be mainstream."
Michael Worry, "While Moore's Law on increasing transistor

CEO, Nuvation density shall continue, growth of single CPU
processing power will slow substantially. This will
lead to not only the multi-core processors being
seen now, but a convergence of traditional
processors with programmable logic."

Fun Predictions We Couldn't
Resist Including:
John Spence, "Since I do work with a handful of the nation's top

Executive financial institutions the one other thing that
Educator, John
Spence Consulting strikes me is that there is a massive amount of
money on the move. As baby-boomers retire,
down-size, cash-in their 401Ks / IRAs and begin
to collect pensions and such, there is going to be
the largest transfer of wealth in the history of our
country. I am not sure where it will all end up, but
there will be literally trillions of dollars
re-distributed within the next few years."
Jean Paul Jacob, "Electronic paper will make its appearance in

Emeritus, IBM e-books and e-newspapers."
Research
Andrew "The rise and fall of Martha Stewart was

Greenberg, CEO, impressive to witness, both its heights and depth.
Greenberg Brand
Strategy More impressive, however, is her resurgence —
from the ashes rise the Phoenix. 2007 will be the
year of forgiveness…"
Jack Yan, CEO, "Bob Barker loses his hair."

Jack Yan &
Associates
Jeffrey S. Young, "OJ Simpson will finally disappear from the

Author, Rose cultural landscape...and good riddance."
Springs

C h a p t e r
5 2006 Predictions
This chapter focuses on 2006. Although we've

seen some of these trends over the last 9 years,
trends #1 and #2 are surfacing for the first time.
Go to Part 2 and view the trends since 1988 and
you'll see the preliminary focus and buildup of
the trends we see this year. The three major
hurricanes in the United Stated and the
continued expansion of the middle classes in
China and India will put a strain on energy
availability, which will have ripple effects around
the world. We also see some very interesting
devices using the Internet and changing the way
the population uses the product and forcing the
corporations to modify the way it sells and
services it.
Almost all of the 10 trends this year relate to one

catalyst: the Internet. As we continue to move
into the 21st century, the democratization effects
of the Internet will continue to dramatically
change the world. Times of shifting power
structures present opportunities. Keep your eyes
open and you might be one of the next big
winners. Best of luck using these trends to your
advantage.

Top 10 Trends for 2006

predictions as of 12/20/06
1. Energy issues take a front burner on the

world stage. (right)
2. The Internet's democratization effect
expands to traditional media. (right)
3. Marketing expenditures and activities
continue to shift to the Internet. (right)
4. China's continued growth significantly
affects world commerce. (right)
5. Outsourcing continues to expand to other
sectors of the economy. (right)
6. Services continues to play a bigger role in
Western economies. (partial)
7. Usage and proliferation of mobile
commerce expands. (right)
8. Adoption of VOIP continues. (right)
9. Employer/employee relationships
strengthen for the first time in years.
(wrong)
10. Security and privacy issues raise their
heads again. (right)

Trend #1:
Energy Issues Take a Front
Burner on the World Stage
Rohit Talwar, CEO, “Oil prices will top $100/barrel and average over
Fast Future $80/barrel and oil prices will drive at least one
country to effectively declare bankruptcy and call
in the World Bank/IMF.”
Bob Cormia, “Americans will have to start to think about

Faculty Member, energy, and especially Peak Oil.
Foothill College
(http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/) While oil
prices may drop somewhat, demand will
seriously out-strip production, and we are at the
leading edge of the escalation to $100/barrel
(well before 2010).”
Sue Kunz, “The rising anger over fuel costs in America

President & CEO, gives the administration an opportunity to pass
Solidware
Technologies legislation approving oil drilling in the Alaskan
wilderness.”
Peter Ostrow, “Investment in alternative energy sources and

President & CEO, services will skyrocket. Publicly traded
Technical
Communities/ companies in the sector will see significant
TestMart bump-ups in valuation.”
Dan Shafer, “Globally, I expect China to emerge as a serious

Technology leader in the emergent field of alternative energy
Visionary and
Author technologies. Some time in 2006, China will
announce a major undertaking -- fueled in part by
American Venture Capital -- to become the
OPEC of the 21st Century, while the United
States, true to form, stays on the sideline nursing
its petroleum hangover and wondering what hit it.
While it is hazardous to predict precisely what
alternative energy might emerge as important in

2006 China, I think it's safe to say it's not likely to
be a technology, per se, but probably
agrarian-based. Think biofuel.”
Ralph Marx, “Higher energy prices will effectively lower the

Former CEO, demand side of the standard demand/supply
Acteva, and
Strategic Business curve, thus reducing the total impact on our
Advisor economy. Yet it will provide enough concern
about our energy future that this will prove to be
a boon to companies that are involved in
alternative energy.”
Jack Yan, CEO, “A larger shock on gasoline prices means that

Lucire LLC even crossover SUV sales become doubtful.
Sales of larger SUVs collapse totally.”
Gerard Wen, “Over 50% of the current “over 2 tons” SUV

Principal, The owners will choose a crossover SUV or a
Alternative Board
Silicon Valley non-SUV vehicle in their next purchase or lease.
General Motors and Ford will continue to lose
money in their U.S. operations for a minimum of
12 months. Additionally, they will continue to lose
market share because of poor product mix.”

Trend #2:
The Internet's Democratization
Effect Expands to Traditional
Media
Sue Kunz, “Apple's release of the video iPod leads to a

President & CEO, whole new revolution.”
Solidware
Technologies
Karl Shaikh, “We the public can all become journalists and will
Co-founder, Virtual have in our pockets the capacity to contribute
Directors, London,
England content into mainstream media. We will be able
to submit our media content to news channels:
news media houses will encourage submission
of public-generated content particularly video
generated by mobile phones.”
Karen Howe, VP, “Blogs, podcasts, and videoblogs are not a fad.
AOL They're here to stay. With the continued
democratization of traditional media, new
high-end but user-friendly tools will continue to
be built. As a result, younger and younger users
will create increasingly more complex content
with higher production value. Heck, who doesn't
know a 4th grader who’s made a movie?”
Karl Shaikh, “Video blogging will take off. We will also be open
Co-founder, Virtual to receiving video content broadcast more
Directors, London,
England readily to our cellphones. Alternative formats of
the original TV content will be distributed as mini
serials or mini episodes. The iPOD phenomenon
will extend to video, and video iPOD will achieve
some early success, although this market will not
be as easy for Apple as the original iPOD was.
The industry dynamics are different, and
people's consumption behavior patterns are very
different to the consumption of Music. The

creative industry will also need to adjust to this
new opportunity to ensure we have the right
content.”
Ann Revell-Pechar, “Social Media. Taken Seriously. This might be

President, the most widely booed of all, because those
Revell-Pechar, Inc.
bloggers who still fill 'em up with segues into who
they danced with last night will be moved to the
National Enquirer level. But Publishers and
Editors, CEOs and Industry Movers... this is the
format. Businesses who want to be recognized,
who want to be heard, will have to begin to rely
on Social Media methodologies.”
Ann Revell-Pechar, “Video over Broadband Gets Real. No more

President, watching tiny little screens in lo-def format... no
Revell-Pechar, Inc.
no no! 2006 will be the year that there's an
enormous breakthrough in streaming media.
Finally, you will be able to get hi-def, full-screen
video piped to your gorgeous flat panel monitor!
And not only that, there will be tools to let YOU
post video without going back to programming
school.”
Jack Powers, “The number of television screens we watch will

Director, double, as tens of millions of LCDs and flat panel
International
Informatics displays turn up in cars, mobile phones, pocket
Institute computers, billboards, store signs, appliances
and office machines. Print is not dead, it's just
being displaced by video in the next generation.
(http://pervasive.TV)”
Bill James, CEO, “We will start listening to our digital music
Digital Media playlists through our home stereo. New devices
Services BT
that make our playlist available to our hi-fi system
will allow us to enjoy our digital music in a more
traditional way and enjoy the experience at home
comfortably.”

Jim (J.C.) Carlton, “Global interaction will continue to make the
Retired, President planet feel smaller, and worldwide
and CEO
communications will be more common for the
average person.”
Trend 3#:
Marketing Expenditures and
Activities Continue to Shift to the
Internet
Kevin Lee, “2006 will be the first year that major marketers
Executive will truly consider Internet advertising part of the
Chairman,
Didit.com LLC media plan. The shift of media consumption
away from newspapers, TV and radio to the
Internet is irrefutable. This shift will spur
significant M&A activity.”
Stewart Quealy, Sr. “Search Engine Marketing (SEM) continues its

Conference scorching pace in 2006 as marketers push more
Program Director,
Incisive Media and more of their ad dollars online. Religiously
reading Search Engine Watch
(http://searchenginewatch.com/) and ClickZ
(http://www.clickz.com/) will remain the best
strategy for keeping pace as Google and the rest
of the search universe evolve at breakneck
speed. Regarding search, the WSJ recently
noted that, “The best way to find new customers
is to make sure they find you.” Hard to argue with
that bit of logic given that “search is the door to
the store.”
Chris Consorte, “Pay-Per-Call online advertising will begin to

President & CEO, emerge and start impacting Pay-Per-Click
Integrated Direct
LLC models such as Google and Yahoo! Overture.
Advertisers will focus, more than ever, on viable

leads and absolute results in their online
marketing plans. With this, clicks alone won't be
enough to prove positive ROI from the Web.
Actual phone calls will drive the ultimate
measurement, tracking, and conversion to
sales.”
Chris Consorte, “Managers will, once again, place an emphasis

President & CEO, on marketing and advertising and increase their
Integrated Direct
LLC expenditures to grow their business. Marketing
will make it's long-awaited come-back as
decision-makers realize it's the right time to jump
back-in and use direct mail, telemarketing, the
Web, TV, and other marketing initiatives to drive
new business.”
Nigel Woods - “E-Commerce will continue at the expense of

CEO, other forms of marketing. This, together with a
Need More Sales,
www.needmoresal tightening on outbound call regulations, will
es.co.uk result in a decrease in large call centre business,
but a corresponding increase in B2B niche
business.”
Stephen Ibaraki, “In 2006 to 2008, expect ad revenues to begin

Chairman/ Board shifting dramatically from traditional media,
Director,
iGEN.ca/CIPS/ stalling growth in this segment, to online led by
NPA/ blogs where revenue models will reach the
ChinaValue.NET critical point for wider acceptance. Also see a
dramatic increase in readership, and the move to
wider-spread audio and video segments, video
search capabilities, and broadcasts; a dramatic
increase and move away from traditional
television and radio. There will be an increasing
array of online video content providers and
aggregators, which include search capabilities,
which fuel more growth. And, expect to see the
rise of professional blogs, including key ones
from China and the Asia region. The semantic
Web will become yield semantic blogs (sblogs) in

2006 so that blogs links will be meaningfully
searchable and have some underlying useful
context.”
Trend #4:
China's Continued Growth
Significantly Affects World
Commerce
Stephen Ibaraki, “In 2003, I predicted the tremendous

Chairman/ Board opportunities in China and in the e-business
Director,
iGEN.ca/CIPS/ arena. Expect this trend to continue, with 115
NPA/ million Internet users in 2005, 180 million in
ChinaValue.NET 2007, and more than 210 million in 2008, making
it the largest center for Internet usage in the
world. However, with market Internet penetration
still under 20%, this also represents a long-term
growth market; with usage now exceeding 50%
in key cities as an indicator of things to come.
Cellphone usage exceeds 300 million and text
messaging exceeds any other nation worldwide.
Expect even wider Internet penetration of the 1.3
billion-consumer market with the introduction of
sub$100 computers for non-profit distribution,
and sub$200 computers in the retail market in
2006. The business models in the Internet arena
that worked in the West will work in China, but
domestic [China-based] companies will
dominate, driving further strategic alliances and
partnerships from companies in the West who
want a greater foothold in a great economy. See
increasing investment in Internet-based media
properties, including China-based blogs. Due to
the nature of the underlying infrastructure,
technology allows China to leapfrog Western
limitations in the adoption of newer technologies.

What does this mean? Higher reliance on the
Internet for consumer activity, including bill
paying. These trends will begin a long-term
upward spike beginning in 2006.”
Philippe Lavie, “Continuous emergence of China and India will

President, contribute to further increases in oil prices,
Keyword
Enterprises, reaching $70/barrel in 2006.”
a Customer
Centric Selling
Affiliate
Rohit Talwar, CEO, “At least five Chinese corporations will list on
Fast Future international markets. China's growth rate will
defy all the analyst's predictions and top 10%
and at least two fortune 500 companies will
receive takeover bids from Chinese
corporations.”
Kevin Nikkhoo, “IT outsourcing from China: Chinese IT

President & CEO, outsourcing companies will start penetrating the
Simplex, Inc.
US market and compete successfully in niche
markets.”

Trend #5:
Outsourcing Continues to Expand
to Other Sectors of the Economy
John Zenger, CEO, “The advent of virtual teams, with members from
Zenger|Folkman widely different geographic locations, cultures,
and time zones will spark new initiatives in how
to get maximum productivity and performance
from such groups. The solutions will include
innovative uses of communications technology
along with some insights from the behavioral
sciences about ways to make these teams
effective.”
Andrew “Countries as Brands. In 2006 countries will start

Greenberg, CEO, overtly branding themselves to increase export
Greenberg Brand
Strategy visibility. Made in Luxembourg? You bet. We've
seen it with wine brand, Australia takes over as
the number one imported wine in the UK. Yellow
Tail has Beringer Blass, Robert Mondavi, and
others in a catch up position.”
“AGK” “Globalization in product development. More

Karunakaran, companies will have distributed development
President, GDA
Technologies Inc. taking advantage of the global talents and cost
structures.”
Jack Yan, CEO, “India's middle class booms more rapidly than
Lucire LLC China's, thanks to innovations for the masses
that have huge export impact globally. India
realizes it needs to compete through intellectual
property. Chinese growth is in existing products,
which only serve to widen the rich–poor gap.”
Joe Tedesco, “An option that will continue to gain popularity in

Founder & CEO, 2006 is nearsourcing, keeping the work in the
Architech
Corporation neighborhood. Contracting with a local IT partner

enables a company to take advantage of the
benefits of outsourcing (focusing on its core
business, cutting costs, and adding value), while
reducing concerns about security and avoiding
hidden costs.”
Narry Singh, “2006 is the year Business Process Outsourcing

Founder, crosses the chasm. This year will see a
Tacit, Inc.
significant increase in outsourcing related to
non-voice processes.”
Trend #6:
Services Continues to Play a
Bigger Role in Western
Economies
Jean Paul Jacob, “Amazing acceleration of the economy of

IBM Researcher, services. IBM as a company has more than 50%
Emeritus
of its revenue from services. In '93/94 IBM was a
computer company, but about two years ago
things accelerated: buying PWC, letting go of the
PC division made it happen overnight. For next
year, we will see an acceleration of the
knowledge workers working in a services
economy, where the competitive edge is given by
innovation. Expect the services component of
US GDP grow from 72% to 80%.”
Stephen Ibaraki, “In the IT world, see a strong move towards

Chairman/ Board professionalism and stronger credentialing,
Director,
iGEN.ca/CIPS/ much like that found in the other traditional
NPA/ professions. Also, a movement towards the
ChinaValue.NET unification of IT professionals worldwide into a
common network, vision, and mission centering
around community. Moreover, the trends towards

business-centric rather than tech-centric will
continue. For example in the security arena, a
traditionally tech-centric arena, the focus will be
on corporate brand protection, strengthening
governance issues, compliance with laws
providing accountability and protection from
liability, trade law and corporate interoperability,
privacy, and identity.”
Trend #7:
Usage and Proliferation of Mobile
Commerce Expands
Rip Gerber, CMO, “Office in your phone. Millions will be carrying

GM-Ecommerce, mobile devices that do more than voice, e-mail,
Intellisync
Corporation and text. Videos, Web conferencing, unified
messaging, PowerPoint presentations, mobile
access to any content using infobots, and more
are coming.”
Thomas Wong, New mobile browsers such as Bitstream

CEO, Thunderhawk and Opera Mini will drive the
Koyale LLC
popularity of mobile Web. This in turn will drive
the development of new mobile applications and
devices.
Vamsee Tirukkala, “This year we will see more products

Co-founder (cellphones, smartphones etc.) based on Wi-Fi
and EVP, Zinnov
standards. I would expect an iPOD with Wi-Fi
capabilities to download directly! Also WiMAX
technology, which extends the rage of Wi-Fi will
be more popular. My guess is that a couple of
local network providers will offer this service by
the end of 2006.”

Kevin Nikkhoo, “Wireless Technology: WiMax, both 802.16A
President (2004 standards) and the mobile version
& CEO, Simplex,
Inc. 802.16B (2005 standards), will start coming into
the market. Prices will be very competitive with
the existing offerings, but the technology will
provide better bandwidth and speed for both
consumers and businesses.”
Rip Gerber, CMO, “Era of the 3G devices is finally here along with
GM-Ecommerce, the second wave of unified messaging – mobile
Intellisync
Corporation unified messaging. Mobile unified messaging will
be the killer app. There will be a greater variety
of third generation devices, albeit with higher
adoption rates in Asia. But users all over the
world will use their smartphones not just for
receiving/sending e-mail, but also for instant
messaging, voice e-mail, and trading. Carriers
will choose one vendor for all their wireless
message service needs versus point solution
providers. They are already experiencing
support issues with the various point solution
vendors they have been using over the past 3-4
years.”

Trend #8:
Adoption of VOIP Continues
Gerard Wen, “Continued adoption of VOIP (voice over IP) by

Principal, consumers and businesses of all sizes.”
The Alternative
Board
Silicon Valley
Thomas Wong, Unified telecommunication systems that use

CEO, Koyale LLC VOIP, SMS, e-mail, fax, data, and Internet will
become business-friendly and attractive to use.
Tony Di Franco, The VOIP explosion is in full swing in Europe, but

CEO, Mail2Net increasing volumes together with increased
competition and lower prices and margins at
wholesale level will force a re think in Market
strategy. Many second-level VOIP wholesale
operators who previously were acting as bridging
gateways between larger Telcos will need to
extend their reach into retail market opportunities
to average margins and consolidate their
business. This will be essential to avoid their
VOIP business becoming a very volatile
commodity trading activity with very high-volume
fluctuations.

Trend #9:
Employer/employee Relationships
Strengthen for the First Time in
Years
Prasad Kaipa, “Talent management and retention will become

Ph. D., CEO important again.”
Advisor and
Coach,
The Kaipa Group
Diana Hoffman, “Going to be a real strong push to bring things

Former-CEO, back into this country to help within. To build
EnvironSystems
within. As such, labor is going to rethink its
positions. In short, jobs will be more important
than increased pay (greater cooperation
between labor and management).”
Brandon Hall, CEO, “There will be increasing respect for VPs of

Brandon-Hall.com human resources in organizations since they are
the key to building talent in the organization (per
Jack Welch). We will also see an emergence of
the concept of human capital management
throughout the enterprise that will consolidate all
the efforts in HR, training, and knowledge
management.”

Trend #10:
Security and Privacy Issues Raise
Their Heads Again
Jim (J.C.) Carlton, “Security is going to continue to be at the top of

Retired, President the list for cost for both individuals and
& CEO
companies. Better approaches are being
discovered everyday.”
Andrew Fife, VP “IT security software market will begin a process

Business of consolidation in 2006. In the past, security was
Development,
Cryptine Networks an annual event that took place in the form of an
audit. However, the increasing speed at which
vulnerabilities are discovered and exploited
necessitates that security become a regular part
of network management. Security vendors are
isolated in many niches (firewalls, IPS,
vulnerability assessment, identity management,
access control, etc.) that make it difficult for
customers to effectively manage security.
Ultimately, enterprises seek to minimize the
likelihood of security breaches and it is only in
concert that existing products offer this ability. I
believe that current security market leaders such
as Cisco and Symantec will begin to integrate
their individual product lines to offer customers
solutions that focus on managing security while
network management vendors such as HP
(OpenView) and BMC will likely enter the
security market through acquisition.”
Karen Orton Katz, “Reputation and personal identity management -

VP of Marketing, how do we know and ensure that someone is
Sales, and
Business who they say they are? In business and in
Development personal interactions on the Web.”

Dave Anderson, “E-mail will start to be more secure. We need
CEO, Sendmail authentication two ways. I am always giving info
to identify and authenticate myself to companies.
They need to learn to authenticate themselves to
me. Show me a piece of data about me that a
criminal couldn't know when you send me an
e-mail.”
Dave Anderson, “Crime on the Internet will be more rampant than

CEO, Sendmail ever. Why? Sutton's law. Willy Sutton the bank
robber said he robbed banks because, “That's
where the money is.” As the value of commerce
online grows, in all forms, crime will follow. This
has nothing to do with technology. It is likely a
safer environment than walking around with a
bunch of cash.”
George Sidman, “In 2006, the Internet will move up from it's
Chairman, Chief juvenile delinquent adolescence to a more
Technology
Architect, mature and private place for business. 2006 will
WebLOQ, Inc. be the year that new levels of privacy will be
introduced that allow any end-user device to
achieve complete e-mail, IM, and blog privacy.
To put a new spin on how privacy is achieved,
technology will be introduced that leaves the
nasty old public Internet to operate like skid road,
while a new private community approach frees
professionals and businesses of all types to
operate in complete privacy. It will be delivered
as a free download, require zero tech expertise
to install, and will achieve multi-point privacy far
superior to a VPN. It will turn any wireline or
wireless connection private without any
additional equipment, and at very low cost.”

Fun Predictions on the
Economy
Michael Drapkin, “Wall St. stock prices will continue to be

CEO, Drapkin stagnant, with the exception of upstarts Google
Technology Corp.
and eBay. Google releases its “Google
Government,” which eliminates the need for
elective democracy, and eBay (on the heels of its
Skype purchase) buys the exclusive right
nationally for garage sales from a cash-strapped
federal government.”
Peter Ostrow, “The giants of e-commerce will look to fuel their

President & CEO, growth through acquisitions. Specifically, they
Technical
Communities/ will target business-to-business marketplace
TestMart providers looking to consolidate with their
existing business the users, the virtual inventory,
and the transactions.”
Vamsee Tirukkala, “Industry consolidation will fuel VC funding to

Co-founder & EVP, reach 2000 levels.”
Zinnov
Suzette “The Big Get Bigger. 2006 will mark continued

Cavanaugh, consolidation of the high-tech industry. The large
Independent
Consultant companies with big bank accounts will continue
to gobble up the mid-size companies.”
Jean Kovacs, CEO, “Enterprises have “bottomed out” and are now
Comergent looking at ways to increase revenue (as opposed
to just cutting costs). We see new channels and
new business models often leading this.”
Ian Lessen, Auditel “I predict that a combination of high energy

prices, further natural disasters, and increased
terrorist activity will send the World on the
precipice of a recession, possibly hitting in 2007.
(I hope I'm wrong.)”

Frank Jewett, VP “Silicon Valley will continue to build and maintain
Business a robust economy. The Silicon Valley economic
Development,
RedFlagsHelp engine will be a driving force in the market base
economy of California and the Nation. This will
be achieved through incisive technology and
innovation.”
Michael Drapkin, “Economy will grind forward, but will be

CEO, Drapkin hampered by increased interest rates and high
Technology Corp.
fuel costs, with problems compounded by
out-of-control government deficit spending
because of the continuing debacle in Iraq and the
hurricane disasters in both New Orleans and
Galveston TX.”
Barry Weinbaum, “Higher interest rates, hyper energy prices, the

President & CEO, Iraq War, and the cost to rebuild the Gulf States
NanoOpto
following Katrina and Rita will slow the economy
in 2006, impacting mid-term elections.”

Other Fun Predictions
Dan Shafer, “On the Net, 2006 will be the “Year of the Google
Technology Bird.” I look for Google to unleash a spate of new
Visionary and
Author applications, primarily fed by Ajax and similar
technologies. The result will be a sea change
shift of applications away from the desktop and
onto the Web, a change that would have been
inconceivable without the emergence of the Rich
Internet Application and its Ajax acceleration. I
also see Google moving into some new strategic
areas that will make it more of a Microsoft
competitor than a Yahoo, AOL, or MSN
competitor as I think they will leapfrog over the
notion of a personal portal to become the first
real Personal Virtual Desktop. And that will
trigger other trends.”
Ann Revell-Pechar, “RSS Notifications Supplant e-Mail as primary

President, form of messaging! Everyone's complaining
Revell-Pechar, Inc.
about e-mail - we're getting too much, spam's too
rampant, viruses abound, sometimes the
server's kaput. We also know that RSS is the
wave of the future. And now that you don't have
to be inside some aggregator to get an alert,
you'll know whenever information that you really
care about has been published. This will
completely change the nature of our
e-communications.”
Jack Powers, “On Jan 1, 2006, the first Baby Boomer turns 60.
Director, The richest, best-educated, most spoiled
International
Informatics generation in history -- 76 million strong -- has
Institute money, power, and high expectations. They want
to live well and live forever, and they will
transform our 20th Century healthcare system
with their demands. (http://healthcareNBIC.org)”

Jack Powers, “The convergence of nanotechnology,
Director, biotechnology, information technology and
International
Informatics cognitive science will produce innovations that
Institute cross over traditional discipline boundaries:
machines that think, cells that compute, animals
that cure disease, stores that are smarter than
their customers, humans who live longer, see
farther, think quicker. (http://in3.typepad.com/
hnbic/2005/05/nbic_analysis_a.html)”
Stewart Quealy, Sr. “As Ryan Mathews and Watts Wacker

Conference precociously pointed out in “The Deviant's
Program Director,
Incisive Media Advantage” back in 2002, “...spirituality will
replace sexuality as the most effective marketing
tactic available to business.” Forward thinking
movie producers like Mel Gibson (“The Passion
of The Christ”) and Disney (“Chronicles of
Narnia”) have already harnessed this concept,
but look for more big business categories to ride
the “faith wave” to a corporate crescendo in
2006.”
Andrew “2006 will mark the rise of the “brave” brand.

Greenberg, CEO, Brands have been hammered by their lack of
Greenberg Brand
Strategy response to natural disasters, Walmart after
Katrina, for example. More and more brands will
begin to acknowledge the importance of good
will and corporate citizenship. In the wake of
Enron, consumers want (and will get) their share
of brands that respond responsibly.”
Philippe Lavie, “Results from stem cell research sponsored by

President, all governments and by private enterprises will
Keyword
Enterprises, see its first significant medical accomplishments
a Customer prior to end of 2006.”
Centric
Selling Affiliate

Prasad Kaipa, “Toyota will become Number 1 automaker in the
Ph. D., CEO world overtaking GM, while Ford will gain more
Advisor and
Coach, respect and will break away from other domestic
The Kaipa Group automakers.”
S Sundararajan, “Opera's visibility will increase in browser usage.

Head of With its recent decisions to identify itself as
Operations,
Real Soft Opera (rather than IE) and also become a full
freeware, Opera will be more visible, especially
with its great capabilities.”
Steven Rothberg, “The job market for college graduates will

President continue to improve, with an increasingly
& Founder,
CollegeRecruiter.c percentage receiving multiple job offers within six
om months of graduation.”
Daniel Anthony, “The buzz for 2006 business leaders will be:
MBA Student, competitive intelligence. Renewed focus on this
Class of 2007, The
Johns Hopkins classic concept will hit its peak in 2006. From
University, cutting edge data extraction techniques to
Regional Advisor, classic product de-engineering, companies will
Marketing,
Envision EMI, LLC. be looking at more ways to boost thin profit
margins through intelligence gathering on the
competition. The key ingredient in the 2006
wave of competitive intelligence: relationships
with the enemy (the competition). Your business
and ideas could be the target of competitive
intelligence. Watch for the coincidental run-in
with competitors at luncheons and happy hours!”
Michelle Aden, “Standards collaboration efforts and

Standards technologies will flourish now that all parties can
Strategist, Sun
Microsystems, Inc. openly discuss intellectual property royalties well
before patented technology becomes part of a
standard.”

Jack Yan, CEO, “As Wikifying gets mainstream, it attracts less
Lucire LLC knowledgeable people, who begin to render
some of the services less useful.”
Bob Cormia, “Local search and meta data start to become

Faculty Member, popular in Websites, using XHTML, RSS, and
Foothill College
XML site maps to better catalog local business
data.”
Jean Paul Jacob, “2006 is the year of the search. The Internet
IBM Researcher, knows almost everything, but tells us almost
Emeritus
nothing. Data no longer has value; it's what you
extract from it that's relevant. The main tool to
get to knowledge workers will be in search. Will
see new search companies breaking out and
growing tremendously.”

C h a p t e r
6 2005 Predictions
This chapter focuses on 2005. Interestingly

enough, most of the trends are continuations on
trends we've seen in past years. The key
element is that capitalism and democracy is
working. This is not always a good thing. The
advent of the Internet has helped spread
democracy and capitalism better than any other
vehicle we've ever seen. This is good for many,
but not for telecommunication companies, those
effected by offshoring, and anyone in an industry
or country where the economic power is
changing.
If you're not actively working on incorporating

some of these trends into your business plans for
2005 and beyond, you should. Business and life
as we know it is changing.

1. VOIP goes mainstream (partial).
2. China's Power and World Economic
Influence Grows (correct).
3. Working at Home Goes Mainstream While
Small Business Thrives (partial).
4. Pickup in Offshoring Activity (correct).
5. While the World is Shrinking, the World
Market is Expanding (correct).
6. Increase in Technology Stocks (partial).
7. Cell Phones look More and More like PDAs
and vice versa (correct).
8. Blogging and Social Networking Become
Accepted Business Tools (correct).
9. Continued Confidence in Using the Internet
(correct).
10. The World Keeps Changing (correct).
Bonus Trend:
1. Included the Most Interesting Predictions
this Year.

predictions as of 10/31/05.

Trend #1:
Voice Over Internet Protocol
(VOIP) Goes Mainstream
William Grosso, “Right now, VOIP, while widely heralded, is not

VicePresident of particularly widely adopted. Free services such
Engineering,
Echopass as Yahoo Voice (offered through Yahoo
Messenger) and low-cost services such as
Skype are beginning to break down the barriers
to adoption. In 2005, we'll see more and more
people abandoning traditional phone service for
a combination of Internet-based telephony and a
cellphone. By 2015, Costco won't even carry
traditional phones.”
Ming Shao, “VOIP is catching fire in the corporate world. US

Sr.Product businesses are having low penetration of using
Manager, Covad
Communications VOIP at rate of under 10% today. Year 2005 will
bring VOIP to the corporate world with much
higher penetration rate up to around 40%.”
Bill Widmer, “Voice over IP will take off as corporations

President & CEO, combine networks to gain efficiencies and further
g8solutions
integrate systems. VOIP will handle over 40% of
the voice traffic for corporate America.”
Sheridan Tatsuno, “Skype and other VOIP services will add

Principal, integrated communications services, calendar,
Dreamscape
Global directory and other conveniences to appeal to
consumers and small businesses.”
Amy Wohl, “We are moving from a wired to a wireless

President, Wohl society. This will make most of the traditional
Associates
telcos' infrastructure investments irrelevant and
push the change to VOIP.Maybe the last mile
doesn't count after all. Maybe you just do it
yourself.”

Trend #2:
China's Power and
WorldEconomicInfluence Grows
Sheridan Tatsuno, “China will continue as the economic juggernaut,

Principal, expanding its R&D, manufacturing, logistics, and
Dreamscape
Global its domestic market, increasing pricing pressure
across the board. Supply chain management is
becoming a big new opportunity for companies
that prefer to 'switch rather than fight' the
onslaught and leverage their end-use markets.
For tech firms, R&D centers in Shanghai and
other major cities will become mandatory for
building a presence in China.”
Dr. James Lin, “The global economy and competitive markets

President & CEO, will shift from US dominance to China
QLQ International
dominance. FTA among China and SE Asia will
undercut US interests in Asia Pacific.”
Jean Su, Partner, “China will become a major market for

Champion Scott technology industry. We will see Chinese
Partners
companies making it to the U.S. market in the
next year.”
Bill Liao, COO, “China will continue to buy commodities at an

http://openbc.com increasing rate and thus it will be good for those
who are long in oil and steel.”
Axel Kloth, CTO, “Rise of China and India in terms of proportional

Parimics, Inc. trade in world trade and in internal markets, with
India's economy ending hyper growth.”

Trend #3:
Working at Home Goes
Mainstream While Small Business
Thrives
William Grosso, “Many knowledge industries already have some

Vice President of personnel who work at home one or two days a
Engineering,
Echopass week. In 2005, the trend will continue as
employers realize the cost savings and
productivity increases possible (one impact of
outsourcing: businesses are already 'virtual'--
this change amounts to realizing even the local
employees don't need to be on-site).”
Mike Johnson, “Trend towards virtual offices will accelerate as

President, Sales companies seek ways to reduce costs and
Solutions
accommodate the growing trend towards a
balance between work and personal life.”
Bahar Gidwani, “There will be a big increase in 'portable

CEO, Index Stock workers.'These are people who rely on wireless
Imagery, Inc.
infrastructure to support a mobile work approach.
They will work at home, on planes, in cars, and
in their regular office. More businesses will
tolerate and support this style of operation,
because it will help them cut occupancy and
infrastructure costs. It will also allow them to
attract the right talent for their needs, without the
costs and disruptions of relocating people across
the country (or the world). And, the trend will
further entrench the trend towards outsourcing of
jobs to other countries.”

David Krueger, “Increasing self-reliance for financial autonomy
DavidKrueger MD willsignificantly expand the numbers of
Executive
Strategist, self-employed.”
Executive Mentor
Coach
Chris Consorte, “2005 will be the year of the small business.

Managing Partner, Small businesses will be the catalyst driving
Integrated Direct
economic growth and recovery, and put the US
economy back on track. Small businesses will
proliferate through hiring and spending. While
large companies continue to merge and purge
employees, small businesses will adapt and
grow to thrive in this economic environment.”
Trend #4:
Pickup in Offshoring Activity
Brandon Hall, CEO, “Outsourcing, although it can have a difficult

brandon-hall.com impact on particular individuals who are
outplaced, is a more efficient model for using
specialists and less expensive labor, therefore,
further enhancing productivity and use of
resources.”
Dr. Marguerite “With the Bush win, we are going to see much
Raaen, Consultant, more offshoring occurring in the first two quarters
Raaen Consulting
of 2005 to improve the balance sheets of many
large corporations. The Federal government just
came out with a set of regulations for
government executives about the approval of
offshoring for technology, call centers, and other
types of government activities if you can show
substantial savings. This is a first in the history of
the US.”

Valerie W. “The biggest IT challenge facing organizations
Perlowitz, over the coming year will be finally undertaking a
President and
Founder, Reliable variety of neglected initiatives that could
Integration increase margins or even spur revenue growth,
Services while at the same time more cost-effectively
managing infrastructure. That's why we're going
to see more outsourcing. Organizations will
outsource routine network management and
maintenance, freeing in-house IT managers to
tackle the more strategic concerns. Look for
security to finally take its turn at the top of the list
of those issues.”
Mike Gospe, “In the US, Fortune 500 companies will continue
Principal, to downsize and not replace employees with as
KickStart Alliance
many full-time resources (for every two
employees let go, only one will be replaced with
a full-time headcount.) Consultants and
contractors will be in even more demand to
replace these downsized workers.”
S. Sundararajan, “Though outsourcing will grow, movement of jobs

Head of outside the country will not grow significantly.”
Operations, Real
Soft
Bill Widmer, “Offshoring will come back to this hemisphere

President & CEO, with South American growth of call centers and
g8 solutions
software developers. Costs are similar to that of
Asia (India) and the quality is excellent. As an
added bonus, they are closer and in the same
time zones.”
Karen Orton, VP “Hopefully, we will see government address the

marketing, issue of job loss through outsourcing and
Encentuate
automation. Retraining of our citizens for new
careers will need to be addressed on a
countrywide level.”

Sheridan Tatsuno, “Fast-growing Indian and Chinese companies
Principal, will enter the U.S. and hire Americans for local
Dreamscape
Global sales, marketing, and R&D.”
Trend #5:
While the World is Shrinking, the
World Market is Expanding
Jean Su, Partner, “Globalization will continue. More companies will

Champion Scott expand into the U.S. markets and U.S.
Partners
companies will continue their growth overseas, in
particular, Asia.”
Dr. James Lin, “The East-West synergy in knowledge, talents,

President & CEO, and cultural exchanges will narrow down the
QLQ International
global divides for more equal economic
opportunities. The East will be the global
economic and business equalizer while the West
will depend more on thesupports from the East
for survival in the global economic scale.”
Tonny Yu, CEO, “The Euro and China currency will continue to
Mailshell grow in strength compared to the US dollar.
Foreigners will continue to buy US bonds and
fund the growing US deficit. This will lead to
greater US exports.”
Dan Shafer, “The Euro will become the most stable currency
President, Shafer in the world markets, with more and more smaller
Media
nations pinning their currency valuations to it
rather than the dollar. While this may cause
near-term perturbations in the United States, the
long-term benefit for the global economy will be

enormous and eventually, America too will
benefit though not without going through some
painful adjustments.”
Jack Yan, CEO, “Young people who have grown up with

Jack Yan & Clinton-era ideals of a global economy begin in
Associates
better jobs in the economy, creating what
advertisers brand a 'global class'.”
Trend #6:
Increase in Technology Stocks
Dr. Marguerite “Increase in technology stocks due to the big

Raaen, Consultant, business fear that ‘Kerry would win’ being
Raaen Consulting
snuffed out. The major technology purchases
that were delayed until after the election will now
be pushed through as RFPs. With Bush winning,
many F1000 companies now feel more secure in
making large technology purchases.”
Jean Su, Partner, “The U.S. economy will pick up more in 2005,
Champion Scott there will be more hires in the tech sector
Partners
compared with the past three years.”
Brad Peppard, “Corporations see unexpectedly high

Partner, productivity gains, pushing earnings above
MarketingBank
expectations.”
Gary Pearson, “Technology continues to recover and drives

COO, PocketThis, unemployment in Bay Area below 5% by
Inc.
year-end.”

Tim Lundeen, CEO “We will see continuing strong economic growth
& Founder, in 2005, up 4% for the year. All indicators are
WebCrossing, Inc.
positive, with lower taxes in the US and Europe's
taxes trending down, productivity growing nicely,
new jobs being created at a high rate, and more
economic freedom throughout the world.”
Rick Giorgetti, “Slow but steady with some bumps--but trend is

President, up. Have you driven the Silicon Valley roads
Montgomery
Professional between 6-10 a.m. and 3-7 p.m.?Lots of
Services Corp congestion. BIG difference since 2002. Look for
continuing traffic woes!!!!!”
Margaret A. “The economy will improve, spurred by

Schaninger, corporations spending on IT and infrastructure
President & CEO,
Info Plus upgrades. Most companies upgraded their
International systems and infrastructure for Y2K back in 1999
and now have outdated systems in place. Times
have changed significantly for how companies
spend on technology; any and all technology
change-out and upgrades must be accompanied
by a solid business case. But with many vendors
no longer supporting older systems, companies
must upgrade. This will help fuel the growth for
the economy.”
Peter Ostrow, “Look for more IPOs from Internet-based

President & CEO, e-commerce companies. Yes, I am aware of
TestMart
what I have just said.”
Neil Sherratt, “The number of IPOs from the Internet Services

Founder Director, sector around the world will increase.”
iProof Limited
Sandip Chintawar, “Companies will start spending on IT by

CEO, Arion incremental development on existing
Systems
infrastructure. IT services companies and ASPs
will benefit.”

Trend #7:
Cell Phones look more and more
like PDAs and vice versa
David H. Deans, “Mobile phones and PDAs continue to inherit

Managing Director, each other's features and capabilities, and they
GeoActive Group
USA become more and more personalized sources of
information about the world around us.”
Ralph Marx, CEO, “Wireless companies will see big growth. We will
Soiree see a significant change in how people use their
phones (cell phone). The perception of a phone
as a simple device with one purpose willbe
severely reduced by the end of the year. There
will be many industries that take advantage of
this from the entertainment industry to marketing
perspectives.”
Trend #8:
Blogging and Social Networking
Become Accepted Business Tools
Bill Liao, COO, “Blogging will become a mainstream business

http://openbc.com tool.”
Jack Yan, CEO, “The Internet braces itself for the next wave as
Jack Yan & bloggers band together to force changes, both
Associates
good and bad. The largest collaborative blog
becomes an exercise in human rights'
advocacy.”

Dave Asprey, “The combination of social networking sites and
Strategy & Startup Google will finally make real the cyberpunk
Consultant
concept of reputation servers. We will all get
used to checking Google and LinkedIn before
doing a business deal or going on a date. To do
otherwise, will be unthinkable.”
Trend #9:
Continued Confidence
inUsingtheInternet
Rand Schulman, “Internet commerce will continue to grow.”

Chief Marketing
Officer,
WebSideStory, Inc.
Dan Shafer, “Consumer confidence in and usage of the

President, Shafer Internet will increase dramatically throughout
Media
2005 as one or more start-up companies provide
unique, outside-the-box solutions to the
problems of spam and phishing. As Internet
communications become more secure, banks,
financial institutions, and other organizations
who are now largely prevented from e-mail
communication with their customers will open
floodgates of useful information flow, to the
mutual benefit of the companies and their
customers.”
David H. Deans, “Internet-oriented marketing matures to the point

Managing Director, where search engines, e-mail, instant
GeoActive Group
USA messaging, and Weblogs all morph together to
create compelling, always-on, and potentially
fully mobile online interactions with savvy
marketers.”

Jared Spool, “In the world of Web sites, we'll see a major
Founding movement from first generation sites (where the
Principal, User
Interface enterprise focuses on making the technology just
Engineering work) to next generation sites (where the
enterprise focuses on making the site provide
value to the audience). It's already starting with
some of the leaders in key indicator industries,
such as insurance, healthcare, government, and
higher education. The leading organizations now
focus on designs that enhance the audiences'
experience and are reaping tremendous
benefits.”
Trend #10:
The World Keeps Changing
Karen Orton, VP “Boomers will become the focus of new products

marketing, and services. Someone turns 50 every 7
Encentuate
seconds. Marketeers will turn their attention to
this group and realize that they are different that
previous generations that traditionally did not
adopt new brands and were extremely cost
conscious.”
Cynthia Holladay, “There's never been a better time or greater need

President, UpRight for marketing innovation. (It can no longer be
Marketing
'build it and they will come' technology looking for
a place to happen, or big spending on mass
marketing. We're moving from paying 1-to-1
marketing lip service to radical
change-your-business shifts that focuses on
specific customer values.)”
Amy Wohl, “We are about to enter the age of the ASP where
President, Wohl software -- nearly any kind of software -- is
Associates
available as a service. Not a service you buy and

pay for by the enterprise, by the year, but rather
a pay for usage model, where a user can buy as
little as a single picture or the one-time use of a
special font -- or budget software for his
20-person company for the next three months,
extendable at will.”
Bahar Gidwani, “The curve will tilt further towards wireless and
CEO, Index Stock cell communication. Hordes of people will drop
Imagery,Inc.
their “land line” home phones. Businesses will
stop wiring their premises for phone and
computer use, and will instead rely on wireless
interfaces. There will be a lot of spectrum
crowding (value of spectrum will go up) and
equipment churn/turnover (good for hardware
and software folks).”
Dave Asprey, “2005 will be the year of Wi-Fi. Numerous cities

Strategy & Startup (on top of San Francisco and Long Beach) will
Consultant
realize that cities with ubiquitous 802.11 (or
faster) signals are simply better places to live,
and will use city coffers to fund free wireless
access. People who live in those cities will soon
find it impossible to remember how they used to
live without always-on, anytime access.”
Chris Heuer, “The sales of smart phones will exceed the sales
ChiefIdeaGuy, of handhelds for the first time.”
Conversal
John Kwan, “Digital cameras sales will completely crush film

President, VeriPic camera sales. Traditional film based companies
will continue to struggle to find a place in a digital
world.”
Gary Feldman, VP “The telecommunications industry will begin a

of Marketing and move from basic bundles of services (basic
Business Strategy,
Amedia Networks cable, 2Mbps data, and voice) to high margin
add-ons and premium levels of service.”

Barry J. “Nanotechnology engineered products will
Weinbaum, become embedded in mainstreamed consumer
President & CEO,
NanoOpto Corp. product and communications devices that
transmit, distribute or network information.”
Vamsee Tirukkala, “More companies will implement Open Source

Co-Founder & EVP, solutions.”
Zinnov
Glenn Glow, “Companies that invest in technology solutions

President & CEO, will increasingly order ala carte and/or on an
Crimson
Consulting Group, as-needed basis. The technology vendors that
Inc. create pricing models that meet these
requirements will win business from the
competitors who do not.”
BONUS Trends:
Most Interesting Predictions this

Year
Vamsee Tirukkala, “Gas price at $3 and Google stock at $300.”

Co-Founder & EVP,
Zinnov
Ravi Thatte, “Several Free Trade Agreements will be signed,

Executive Director, particularly in Asia creating large trading zones.
Dixtinct Services
Pte Ltd National borders will become irrelevant;
opportunities as well as competition would come
from totally unexpected quarters.”
Phil Hood, Partner, “The Beginning of the End of the PC: Despite
Transcend good initial sales it will become clear that the PC
Strategy Group
is a failure as a mass market home media center
and will be eclipsed by easier-to-use offerings
from telcos, cable firms, game companies.”

Julie Sautter, “New energy companies will see record growth
President & as people continue to care about the
Founder,
BodyLines Inc. environment and are tired of relying upon
traditional resources of energy and foreign oil.”
S. Sundararajan, “Microsoft will continue to be the company every

Head of body loves to hate. It will only improve its
Operations, Real
Soft monopoly.”
Shanes Hedges, “The US and Britain will seize the opportunity to

Chief of Staff, push the Middle East peace plan and major
Envision EMI
progress will be made by the end of 2005."
Suzette “Private savings accounts to replace part of

Cavanaugh, VP Social Security will be established, which will
Marketing,
Saratoga Systems lead to growth in the financial services markets.”
Inc.
Cameron Kane, “Spam filters begin to get supplemented with

President, human eyes. Too many legitimate messages
Strategic Design
Group LLC don't get delivered because of these things.”
Jeffrey Paul “In response to strong demand from China,

Hayward, Finance steel-making capacity in the UK will increase for
Director, Deejay
Accident Repair the first time in many years.”
Centres Ltd
Bob Cormia, “The growth of China's economy, and in

Faculty, Computer particular the energy demands of the
Technology and
Information manufacturing economy, will largely go
Systems, Foothill unnoticed.”
De Anza Colleges
Luc Schoups, “Profitability will still be a tall order. Even in this

Americas Region, hesitant economy employees will expect salary
Assistant General
Manager, Anritsu increases and other benefits that were put on
Company hold during the previous downturn. In general

profitability will need to be secured by the very
traditional balance of cautious investment and
continuous scrutiny on costs.”
David “The number of UK start-up companies in 2005

Cruickshank, Joint (measured by new VAT registrations in that year)
Managing Director,
Farrellsoft Limited will be greater than at any time in the last 10
years and will exceed 200,000.”
Marc E. Faerber, “The venture community returns to ventures and

CPA, Owner not fully packaged deals.”

C h a p t e r
7 2004 Predictions
Many prominent individuals have contributed to

CEOnetworking's top 10 2004 trends. Eighty
industry experts contributed over 225
predictions. Unfortunately, we couldn't include
them all. Contributors of note include:
• Tony Scott, CTO of General Motors

• Patrick Lo, Chairman and CEO, NETGEAR
• Dan Tapscott, Co-author of “The Naked
Corporation”
• Geoffrey Ramsey, CEO and Co-founder,
eMarketer
• John C. Dvorak, Kevin Maney, and Mark Jones,
columnists
Overall, the business environment is getting

better, however, there are a number of obstacles
that need to be tackled (viruses, spam, offshore
outsourcing backlash, and IT security). While
doing this, the Internet continues to force
business to evolve to the next level (Internet
telephony, Wi-Fi, business consolidation, social
networking, e-commerce, the software ASP
model and marketing). With this in mind, let's get
ready for a very interesting ride in 2004.


1. Viruses and spam get worse, not better

(correct).
2. Continued global economic dependency
and a backlash against offshore
outsourcing (correct).
3. Internet telephony continues disrupting the
existing players (correct).
4. For survival, companies continue to
consolidate (correct).
5. Wi-Fi gets bigger (correct).
6. Business continues to evolve to the next
level (partial).
7. Some positive IT, economic, and stock
market movement (partial).
8. Security is still the #1 IT concern (correct).
9. Social networking takes off (partial).
10. The term “e-commerce” comes back into
vogue (partial).
Bonus Trends
1. Software continues to change forever
especially via the ASP model.
2. Marketing becomes important again.

Trend #1:
Viruses and Spam get Worse,
not Better
Thomas E. “The window of opportunity for corporations to

Noonan, Chairman, apply patches to protect against computer
President and
CEO, vulnerabilities will continue to shrink as
Internet Security corporations will have to battle more than 3,500
Systems, Inc. new worms and viruses. The major worms of
2004 will blow right past traditional standalone
anti-virus and firewall products and continue to
ravage corporate networks.”
Tony Scott, Chief “Sadly, in 2004 we will have a so-called

Technology “zero-day” event - a case where a previously
Officer, IS&S,
General unknown exploit in the form of a virus or worm is
Motors unleashed broadly. Prior to this, all exploits have
Corporation been based upon a previously disclosed
vulnerability.”
John C. Dvorak, “Massive virus. This is the year where a serious

Columnist virus/tojan/worm program with a destructive
payload wrecks computers and sinks a few
ill-prepared businesses. The result is that the
government gets involved with computer
security.”
Alan Wallace, CEO, “Security and viruses will only get worse - many
Reward average users will be the source of most of the
Marketing, Inc
trouble as they won't know what they need and
won't even pay attention to run the updates
alerted by Microsoft. While corporations may be
very secure, it will be home users that affect the
usability of the Internet until solutions are
implemented for flash attacks and OS fixes are
deployed.”

Tom Henderson, “Congress will try to stop spam, and fail. Domain
Managing Director, blocking will become the last resort to
ExtremeLabs, Inc.
undesirable mail, and most of the blocking will
occur in the USA.”
Edward Segal, “'Do not spam' lists will become more popular
Author, than “do not call lists”, thus posing new
“Getting Your
15 Minutes of challenges for all companies on how to use the
Fame” Internet to reach and communicate with potential
customers without offending them.”
Trend #2:
Continued Global Economic
Dependency and a Backlash
Against Offshore Outsourcing
John Bartold, “There will be no boundaries. Forget

Contributing governments, borders, taxing authorities and the
Editor,
www.Colloguy.co like. People will seek providers of solutions and
m value regardless of where they are. Shipping
goods around the world is as simple as shipping
it across the US. Shipping ideas are even
easier. It happens with the click of a mouse. By
the time nexus issues are resolved in the US, it
will be too late.”
Atul Vashistha, “Companies will become increasingly dependent

President & CEO, upon the global market to achieve best-in-class
neoIT
services and minimize costs. The backlash
against offshoring will increase as it becomes a
political focus area as unions, politicians, and
anti-globalists voice their concerns. As the U.S.
presidential campaign heats up and the labor
impact of recent large transactions are realized
this will cause more outcry against offshoring.”

Nicole Kidd, “Increased IT offshoring will backfire, especially
Journalist, Author, in the healthcare and financial services verticals,
TheJournalists.co
m when hidden costs (and bugs) come home to
roost.”
John C. Dvorak, “Beginning of the End. Outsourcing mania

Columnist backfires for one too many companies as
outsource companies are spread too thin. The
companies using poor quality outsource firms get
bad marks for customer service as their business
declines.”
Susan Mulcahy, “The largest growth will be in China for

VP of Research, electronics and high tech. Not only will European
Reed Research
Group/Reed and North American companies continue to
Business move into China. China's own businesses will
Information begin to catch up and be real forces there.”
Thomas Wong, “China will become a major e-commerce player.

Sr. Consultant, They already have the world's second largest
Intesync
Internet community in 2003. One of the enablers
is state-sponsored smart cash card
development, which will become more popular
than credit cards.”
Patrick LeGranche, “The shift of Silicon Valley based employees to

Chairman & CEO, India or China based ones is only beginning. The
Qarbon
21st Century will be Asian.”

Trend #3:
Internet Telephony Continues
Disrupting the Existing Players
Mark H Goldstein, “Internet telephony takes off, creating a huge

CEO, Retail disruptive event for any organization selling
Presents
communications services by the drop.”
Leland Harden, “Skype and peer-to-peer telephony will set

Vice Chancellor telephone companies and long distance
of Institutional
Advancement, New companies on their ear. VOIP is ready for prime
Canoe University time and adding the p2p 'free' element is a
tinderbox.”
Mark Resch, CEO, “Increased cellphone functionality including still

Onomy Labs, Inc. images and video will lead to at least one Telco
to begin experimenting with opening its network
to application developers. This will be the starting
gun for a race to open telecommunication
networks, and will transform telecommunication
in a winner-take-all frenzy to capture market
share for these new open networks.”
Craig J. Mathias, “Public-access WLANs are going to be a huge

Principal, success because cellular carriers are going to
Farpoint Group
dominate this business. Far from being a threat
to 3G, PWLANs are essential to the carriers who
need them to augment their data (and even
voice) capacity. Look for combined
WLAN/cellular handsets in 2004.”
Carol Erickson, “Bill to phone solutions will provide significant

Chief Technology profit areas for wireless carriers as well as third
Officer,
YellowPepper Inc. party providers when coupled with the present
affordable hybrid devices capable of utilizing
premium content such as mp3s, games, and
more.”

Trend #4:
For Survival, Companies
Continue to Consolidate
Steve Weissman, “Expect a continuation and even acceleration of

President, Kinetic the vendor consolidation we've seen over the
Information LLC
past few months (Open Text/IXOS,
EMC/Documentum, PeopleSoft/JD Edwards,
etc.). This will be especially true in the
BPM/workflow, Web Services, and capture
spaces, in which there are too many players to
serve too few customers. Look for the following
companies to be involved either as acquirers,
“acquirees,” or parties to a merger: EMC (they're
not done yet!), Cardiff, Dell, Ultimus, and one or
more of Bowstreet, Cape Clear, SeeBeyond, and
webMethods.”
Jeff Karan, “Companies will merge to survive. Independent

Managing Partner, companies with small product footprints,
Woodside Capital
Partners marketing budgets, and shallow customer
support will fail. Marketing strategy and financial
strength will again become causative factors of
success.”
Bruce R. “Look for consolidation in the industry.

Mancinelli, Companies will continue to merge and/or sell as
President and
CEO, WebSurveyor a means of equity conversion. IPOs will only
Corporation happen infrequently.”
Atul Vashistha, “Supplier consolidation will continue to occur,

President & CEO, especially as the number of new companies
neoIT
trying to enter the BPO market are not able to
realize client wins soon enough to capitalize on
their efforts”

Karen Howe, CEO, “There will be continued consolidation in the
Singingfish Search space; however this consolidation will
generate acquisition opportunities for specialty
search engines and search-related
technologies.”
Trend #5:
Wi-Fi Gets Bigger
Patrick Lo, “Wi-Fi will become widespread worldwide in

Chairman and 2004. We expect homes to reach up to 20%
CEO, NETGEAR
penetration for wireless networking. In the office
we will see new, rapid adoption now that
standards, speeds, and security have advanced
sufficiently enough for business-class
deployment. For those on the road, we predict
over half a million hotspots worldwide by the end
of 2004."
Richard Brenner, “A number of technology companies are

CEO, The Brenner developing methods of extending 802.11(a) or
Group, Inc.
(b) or (g) from hundreds of feet to thousands of
feet. As they continue to figure out ways to
eliminate the interference caused by such things
as walls and 2.4 GHz phones, which are in the
same frequency range as 802.11, look for even
greater adoption of 802.11 networks in homes
because it solves the last mile problem, in
corporations, and in large public areas.”
Dave Anderson, “IM and e-mail by wireless device will cause

CEO, Sendmail Inc. growth of message volume in the US to
accelerate. Wireline growth rates will not go
down. This will be added growth.”

Daniel Anthony, “Free wireless hotspots will increase
Director, substantially. This is a no-brainer. Anyone
National Youth
Leadership Forum who's blown hours in a Panera or Starbucks will
on Technology tell you that a cool social ambiance plus free
Internet connection is a successful recipe.”
William Grosso, “Nationwide, wireless Internet access points will

VP, Technical be free. Wireless access points are cheap, easy
Services and
Support, Hipbone to run, and a nice source of competitive
Incorporated advantage (or disadvantage, if you don't have
one). Coffee shops and hotels won't be able to
charge for them in most parts of the country past
mid 2004.”
Trend #6:
Business Continues to Evolve
to the Next Level
Don Tapscott, “Transparency will continue its ascendancy to

Co-author, “The being the over-arching guiding principle for
Naked
Corporation: How corporate behavior. Every corporate boardroom
the Age of should have a goldfish bowl sitting in the middle
Transparency Will of the table, to remind the Directors of the
Revolutionize
Business” increasing scrutiny under which they operate.”
William Ryan, “The needs of enterprise computing are quickly

Founding Partner, evolving from 'Functional Competency' of the
Portola Strategies
1990s (how can we make our business more
efficient?) to 'Integration Competency' (how can
we best manage the end-to-end business?).
This will lay the foundation for the next big
technology trend: 'Collaboration Competency'
where business systems around the world
seamlessly interact with each other over the
semantic Web.”

Geoffrey Ramsey, “As a result of continued media fragmentation,
CEO and the advent of new media platforms and
Co-founder,
eMarketer accelerated global competition, marketing and
advertising functions will come under greater
scrutiny to prove their ROI. The Internet, which is
arguably the most measurable of all media, will
set a new standard for media accountability in
2004. This trend is not a fad, it will continue ad
infinitum.”
Patrick J. Yam, “Venture Capital will continue on an evolutionary

CEO and path. Not unlike other industries, as the Venture
Managing Member,
Sensei Partners Capital industry evolves market segmentation of
LLC the constituent firms becomes more prominent
and distinction on a value add basis gains
prominence. Spurred by the aggregation of
capital between 1996-2001 (which far exceeded
the amount raised since the modern advent of
Venture Capital investing since the 1950's) the
Venture Capital industry will now highlight the
interdependent need between early stage real
“Company Builder” VCs from later stage more
passive investors.”
Kevin Maney, “A return to long-term thinking. In the wake of

Technology corporate scandals and a general disgust with
Columnist
greed, the best CEOs will increasingly revolt
against the quarterly-earnings,
make-that-number game, which frees them to
focus on longer-term, deeper issues.”
Molly E. “Intellectual property law will undergo a major

Holzschlag, overhaul, with more and more alternatives and
Consultant,
Molly.Com, Inc. extensions to traditional IP protection emerging
(such as Creative Commons).”

Trend #7:
Some Positive IT, Economic, and
Stock Market Movement
Bill Widmer, “The market downturn has pushed companies to

Managing Partner, become lean and agile. As the upturn begins
Diamond
Hawk Ventures unprecedented growth in margins and new
corporate agility will make mid-sized and larger
companies provide greater returns to
shareholders while they find they can enter new
market places and adequately complete with
their smaller companies and start-ups.”
David J. Blumberg, “The general economy, and IT spending in

Managing Partner, particular, will continue to advance as inflation
Blumberg Capital
stays low and the business cycle catches up with
ongoing, strong gains in productivity.”
Philip Lay, “… the IT buying climate - not the entire economy

Managing Director, - improves, and healthy growth (though not
TCG Advisors, LLC
necessarily hyper-growth) will return to large
parts of the e-business sector, both in consumer
and business markets.”
Bill Murphy, “Strong Economic Recovery in 2004, 3.5- 4%

CEO and GDP growth, Unemployment 4.5-5%.”
Chairman, Clos
LaChance Wines.
Inc.
Amy D. Wohl, “The IT Slump is over -- but there won't be a

President, return to the Good Old Days of unlimited
Wohl Associates
spending.”
Peter Ostrow, “The stock market will see at least four new
President & CEO, e-business IPOs in the next year creating at least
TestMart/
NAVICPmart $1 billion of new, incremental market cap.”

Kevin Maney, “Return of the tech IPO. It won't be anything like
Technology the bubble days, but the long-dorman tech IPO
Columnist
will bust out of its shackles with a few big ones in
early-2004, among them Google and
Salesforce.com.”
Rod Diridon, “Silicon Valley will begin adding jobs to the as-yet
SR., Executive jobless recovery, much to the relief of the under
Director, Mineta
Transportation and unemployed... and the shrunken classified
Institute advertising pages of local media.”
Trend #8:
Security is Still the #1 IT Concern
Lawrence D. Dietz, “Security Finally Reaches The Boardroom -

Director, North Boards of Directors and Top Management will be
American
Enterprise held accountable for business stoppages as a
Marketing, result of information security issues. CIOs will be
Symantec replaced in the event critical systems are brought
down by foreseeable security problems such as
failed patch management and worms.”
James E. Biorge, “Governments and private sector businesses will

Chairman and be driven by the need for greater security to take
CEO, 1steTech
authentication beyond the device to
authenticating the user as well. The $50 billion
identity theft problem last year will meet its match
when PDA's, cellphones and smartcards
standardize on self contained biometric solutions
and cryptography.”
Greg Bolcer, “Security will get grounded in reality which

CTO and Founder, includes destroying the myth that everything
Endeavors
Technology, Inc. inside the firewall is safe (and everything outside
isn't). Security vendors will uproll their products

so that intrusion detection, anti-spam, anti-virus,
and personal firewall policy and management will
have to be included on every desktop.”
Mark Jones, “Security will remain the most important, largely

Executive Editor, unresolved, problem for IT.”
News, InfoWorld
Media Group
Stephen Ibaraki, “Beware of the next acronym: X-HI (XML-HI).

Teacher/Educator, Expect a major XML-based Hacker Intrusion or
Writer, Analyst,
Chairman and attack due to insufficient preventative measures.
Chief Architect, With all the XML document sharing, many
CIPS, companies are not sufficiently protected against
StephenIbaraki.co
m, Igeninc.com embedded security threats.”
Trend #9:
Social Networking Takes Off
Don Tapscott, “Social Computing. The shift from the solitary

Co-author, “The experience of reading a Web page to the social
Naked
Corporation: How experience of human interaction, collaborative
the Age of information sharing and entertainment online.
Transparency Will Blogs, meet chat rooms, meet interactive games,
Revolutionize
Business” meet MUDs, meet computer conferencing.”
Mark Resch, CEO, “We will see the first IPO of social network
Onomy Labs, Inc. technology companies like LinkedIn, Ryze,
match.com, and Friendster. This is the *second*
generation of online virtual community. This new
wave takes advantage of the Internet to build a
new social infrastructure. Rather than an
egalitarian free-for-all, this is a technology that
supports the formation of social networks based
upon the premise that you will share contacts
and make introductions with people you trust.

Knowledgeable VC's are making their bets in this
space, and Microsoft, Yahoo, and Google will
make big acquisitions this year.”
Andy Snider, “The cutting edge software of the next generation

Founder, will look more like a dating service that links
Advanced
Thinkers Forum people ---rather than what we are used to as
software.”
Stephen Ibaraki, “Forget boundaries, cohorts are the future.

Teacher/Educator, Organizational, cultural, regional, and national
Writer, Analyst,
Chairman and boundaries will disappear, replaced by on-line
Chief Architect, cohorts based upon attitudes and interests being
CIPS, the glue that binds people into future
StephenIbaraki.co
m, Igeninc.com marketplaces. Ads will increasingly be targeted
to these future virtual groups making on-line
targeted marketing as the most effective
mechanism. The explosive growth of Weblogs
are the tip of what is to come.”
Mitchell Levy, “A couple of large corporations will deploy one of

Partner, the social business networking software (e.g.
CEOnetworking
Ryze or Ecademy) within the firewall as a
productivity tool.”
Trend #10:
The Term “E-Commerce” comes
back into Vogue
Jeff Drust, “E-Commerce will continue to grow based on

VP E-Business, wider acceptance, reliability and security and
Autodesk, Inc.
that growth will accelerate on a multiplier to
economic recovery. That is to say that
e-commerce as a route to market will gain
disproportionately from economic recovery.”

Jim Sterne, “Online sales will continue to rise. Convenience
President, and familiarity are at work here. Those who have
Target Marketing
not bought will and those who have will buy
more.”
Philippe Lavie, “Like with railroad industry in the early 20th

President, century, Web-based businesses will emerge
KeyRoad
Enterprises, again from the ashes of their founding parents to
a CustomerCentric significantly contribute as a channel of
Selling affiliate distribution to the 21st century economy.”
Alex Osadzinski, “Some of the e-commerce survivors from the

Venture Partner, bubble will emerge as exciting, viable, profitable,
Trinity Ventures
newly-public companies. This will drive a new
wave of new investment in consumer
e-commerce, although rather more tempered
than the last time around.”
Sheridan Tatsuno, “Online auctions. Entrepreneurs will use

Principal, cellphones with digital cameras to buy and sell
Dreamscape
Global items via eBay and other online auctions.
Carriers, credit card companies, banks, and
other infrastructure players will enter the “mobile
eBay” market, which will explode worldwide
during the next decade.”
William Raduchel, “The dreams of the dot.com boom continue their

Independent march to reality but with very different returns.”
Strategic Advisor

Bonus Trend #1:
Software Continues to Change
Forever Especially via the
ASP Model
Peter Harrison, “All enterprise software companies will have

VP Consulting, delivered a solution that hosts their software
GetThere,
A Sabre Company services on the Web that companies can pay for
as they use. This software model has proven
viable in several industries including travel,
procurement, expense reporting, human
resources, customer management, and more.”
Michael Maziarka, “Hosted services will grow as businesses look for

Director, ways to quickly obtain results with minimal
CAP Ventures, Inc.
up-front monetary and human resource
investment.”
Greg Bolcer, “Businesses discover app subscriptions and app

CTO and Founder, rentals really are cost effective as delivery
Endeavors
Technology, Inc. barriers drop. Many major ISVs will include
bundle pricing, ISPs will drop prices on pipes to
stay competitive, enterprise site licenses will be
cheap compared to end user licensing, and new
rich client streaming technologies will all but
eliminate deployment and IT costs.”
Chuck DeVita, “ASPs/hosted solutions are not a business

President, model. This is a delivery mechanism and will
Growth
Process Group become a viable alternative to software licensing
as the infrastructure becomes more reliable and
robust.”

Tony Scott, “Technology providers will be forced to offer their
Chief Technology corporate customers something similar to an
Officer, IS&S,
General automobile's 5 year/50,000 mile
Motors bumper-to-bumper warranty on their products.
Corporation The first major technology company to offer this
will be rewarded with a large gain in market
share and will set the pace for all other
companies to follow. Maintenance fees will be
called “extended warranty” or “insurance” after
the initial period.”
Bonus Trend #2:

Marketing Becomes Important
Again
Philippe Lavie, “For the past 7 years, marketing had become

President, obsolete and a necessary evil. 2004 will see
KeyRoad
Enterprises, marketing re-birth as an enabler and service
a CustomerCentric provider to sales by helping craft customer
Selling affiliate messages (how products can be used to achieve
prospect's goals) and no longer long list of
feature descriptions.”
William Ryan, “Forget traditional positioning and brand-centric

Founding Partner, approaches to marketing. We're now in the 'Age
Portola Strategies
of the Narrative' where the biggest challenge
facing companies is how to tell communicate
their story in the most compelling, consistent and
credible way possible -- both internally and
externally.”

Glenn Gow, “Technology partnerships and Go-To-Market
President & CEO, partnerships will gain in importance as
Crimson
Consulting Group, technology vendors formulate a clearer
Inc. understanding of a customer's 'whole solution
requirement'.”
Karen Orton, “Marketing will stay focused on blocking and

Principal, Internet tackling, great positioning and execution are
Strategies Group
essential. The two 3's will be the focus: revenue
and references (reference customers).”
Karen Howe, CEO, “Search advertising will continue to build

Singingfish significant revenue for portals and will help
revitalize the online advertising industry.”

C h a p t e r
8 2003 Predictions
In the first prolonged economic downturn in a

decade, Americans are trying to come to grips
with an environment they haven't had to deal with
for many decades, probably never in their
lifetimes. This uncertainty, coupled with the
prolonged change to business brought about by
the continued proliferation of the Internet into all
aspects of work and play, accounts for all the 10
trends highlighted for this year. [Of special note
are trends #9 and #10. Although I'm not 100%
certain these trends will be fully realized in 2003,
I certainly wish we would make significant
progress in these areas.]

Top 10 Trends for the
Year 2003:

1. The American Psychological Association

announces its best year ever (correct).
2. Quiet, yet continued strong growth in
e-commerce (correct).
3. The economy waffles while folks look for
“the breakout event” and to overcome the
dot.bomb malaise (mostly correct).
4. Operational efficiency continues to be a key
corporate driver (correct).
5. Specialist are in, generalists are out
(correct).
6. The software industry has changed forever
(correct).
7. Web Services show demonstrated ROI
(somewhat, not really yet).
8. Marketing has changed forever (correct).
9. Significant inroads made on eliminating
spam (slight at best).
10. Users will get more of what they want
(wishful thinking).

Bonus Trend:
1. Key areas to keep an eye on include:
security, wireless, real-time business
intelligence, broadband.
Trend #1:
The American Psychological
Association Announces its
Best Year Ever
Mitchell Levy, “After 10 years of sustained economic growth, a

Author, 4-year bubble where salaries, expectations, and
E-Volve-or-Die.co
m retirement dreams increased dramatically, and a
number of decades of relative “safety,” a number
of Americans are trying to find the meaning of
life.”
Scott Adams, “Employees will become increasingly disgruntled

Dilbert Cartoonist because the sluggish economy reduces their
employment options. Managers will have more
power and will become more overtly evil.”
Susan “Health and emotional balance… with the

Papageorgio, challenges on Wall Street, the 401k mess, and
Owner,
Inspired Learning, the socio-economic challenges of the probable
a training and war with Iraq, companies are turning to a more
learning resource holistic approach to employee
productivity. Focusing on coping skills, building a
sense of well-being, and helping their teams
build the emotional tools to develop positive
thinking, learning, and communication skills.”
Mark X. Addison, “Ethics will become a required course in most

President, MBA programs.”
Rocket Science

Trend #2:
Quiet, Yet Continued Strong
Growth in E-Commerce
Tom Popek, “The use of e-commerce will continue to

VP, Finance & increase, despite the economic climate, with a
Operations,
Resilence more efficient, disciplined, orderly, and user
friendly manner that will increase not only the
usage rate, but also participation.”
Lisa Ann Strand, “eBay will continue to move from its stronghold in
Director and Chief online auctions to being a major player in
Analyst,
eCommerce, shopping online in general - both in the C2C and
NetRatings Inc. B2C space.”
James Roche, “Amazon (or EBay) is once again accepted as

Co-President and the most likely future 'Wall*Mart killer.'”
CEO, Fort Point
Partners Inc.
Lisa Ann Strand, “Sites that focus on industries transformed by an

Director and Chief online presence will continue to be most
Analyst,
eCommerce, successful in taking away offline share of sales –
NetRatings Inc. most salient examples include Travel, Photo
Processing, and Flowers & Gifts.”
Leland Harden, “Profits will become the norm for dotcoms that
Vice Chancellor of whose demise had previously been grossly
Institutional
Advancement, New exaggerated.”
Canoe University

Trend #3:
The Economy Waffles While Folks
Look for “the Breakout Event” and
to Overcome the dot.bomb
Malaise
Richard M. “The technology sector will hold steady in 2003,

Brenner, CEO, The without any significant increase. The consumer
Brenner Group,
Inc. confidence index needs to remain relatively
constant for this prediction to hold true. If the
consumer confidence index drops during this
holiday season, the technology sector could be
negatively impacted and the impact would have
a longer duration.”
Damon Danielson, “This will be an unspectacular year in every

CEO, nForceNet sense of the word, other than on the political
stage. As corporate earnings grow somewhat
and are gauged to be more predictable by
investors, the stock market will have an average
year, as in the old gauge of average.”
Mark Resch, CEO, “Many e-commerce entrepreneurs in Silicon

Onomy Labs, Inc. Valley continue walking around like members of
a cargo cult after World War II, just hoping the
planes come back. But VCs will not increase
investment in the e-commerce sector.”
Barbara Shaw, “Jobs come from small business but the dot.com
President & CEO, bomb killed investment in entrepreneurs who
Breveon
actually have solid products. Tracking
reinvestment in businesses is critical because it
will fuel the drivers of the next boom.”

Robert Labatt, “IT projects will continue to advance at budget
Entrepreneur pace, not fear pace for at least the first half of the
in Residence,
Saint's Ventures year.”
Punita Pandey, “The pendulum will start to stabilize in the

CEO, netCustomer middle.”
Scott Andrews, “… unprecedented corporate bankruptcies and

Founder, losses.”
AspireNow
Trend #4:
Operational Efficiency Continues
to be a Key Corporate Driver
Tony Scott, CTO, “Increased focus on software and systems

IS&S (Information quality…this is a high-cost item for most IT
Systems and
Services), organizations and continued cost pressures will
General Motors force a stronger look at this. Additionally,
offshore sourcing will emerge as a significant
factor in the outsourcing model for most
corporations. Companies that were dabbling with
this in 2002 will morph their exploratory activity
into significant (greater than 50% growth) activity
in 2003.”
John Jordano, “Zero Impact Payback Time - Companies are

Sr. Member conserving cash at all costs. The days of
Technical Staff,
Salesforce.com 12-month implementation efforts and nebulous
ROI after 2 years are dead. Companies will only
purchase technologies that have a clear,
immediate benefit to the bottom line. Suppliers
that have the shortest payback times will
benefit.”

Don Tapscott, “Transparency, its implications for business and
President, how to manage it will become a central issue for
New Paradigm
Learning executives, driving profound changes in
Corporation corporate values and behavior, for the better, as
firms rethink how to build trusting relationships.”
Amy D. Wohl, “Many firms, large and small, will decide to do

President, some of their computing in a hosted or
Wohl Associates
on-demand environment, avoiding new or
additional capital expenditures and the need to
hire skilled support staff.”
Nicole Kidd, “Continued focus on integration and data quality

Author, that enables increased automation of business
TheJournalists.co
m processes.”
Parag Patel, “…consolidation of internal systems.”

VP, International,
Bowstreet Inc.
Keith Borman, “Employees are a vastly unused resource when

President & CEO, it comes to information transferal- strange but
Qarbon
true...with staffing cutbacks happening at many
companies, it's essential to spread internal
knowledge.”
Trend #5:
Specialist are In,
Generalists are Out
Andrea Reynolds, “Businesses will hire greater numbers of experts

Founder/Agent, who have single, narrow niches - very
ExpertsWhoSpeak.org
specialized areas of expertise -- as problem

solvers. Generalists with multiple unrelated
niches (jack-of-all-trades) and coaches will be
less desirable.”
Andy Sernovitz, “Whatever happens to the economy, smart

CEO, GasPedal marketers will continue to do well, wanna-be's
will keep losing their jobs.”
Robert Middleton, “The future for e-business is not the

Owner, Action mega-corporation, but the small business, often
Plan Marketing
home-based business. This area is already
exploding… these businesses are small, they
are flexible, they have no inventory and they can
turn on a dime.”
Trend #6:
The Software Industry
has Changed Forever
James Roche, “Enterprise software never recovers from its

Co-President and slump. $100mm mega projects based on Siebel,
CEO, Fort Point
Partners Inc. SAP, and others have produced such a legacy of
pain and failure that CIOs suggesting their
implementation are viewed with skepticism.”
Hank Barnes, “Less investment in major back office system

SVP of Software implementations, but increased investment in
Marketing and
Strategy, divine, wrappers that expose information and
Inc. capabilities in those systems to external parties,
particularly customers.”
Jason Bloomberg, “Enterprise architecture committees/teams

Senior Analyst, inside large companies will recommend that their
ZapThink LLC
organizations move toward loosely coupled

service-oriented architectures. Many companies
will have “ROI battles,” as people who
understand the substantial long-term cost
benefits of service oriented architectures (SOAs)
battle the bean counters, who will still be focused
on short-term cost savings.”
Howard Smith, “The technology planning horizon for Global

CTO EMEA, 5000 companies is now a synthesis of software
co-chair BPMI.org,
Computer engineering (Web Services) and process
Sciences engineering (BPMS). With the wildfire adoption
Corporation of application servers, component-based
development and Web Services, the field is ripe
for the wildfire spread of process management...
The balance of power will shift, away from the
need to squeeze business processes into the
prepackaged fashions of the IT industry, and
toward the ability to creative, improve and
transform business processes. 2003 will be the
first year some providers of individual
applications make the switch to process
manufacturing.”
Chris Beall, CEO, “One-size-fits-all packages will give way to

Transparent incremental, custom automation of each
Business
Corporation company's unique business processes.”
Michael Ker, “Best of Breed software vendors must continually

President & CEO, reinvent themselves or get rolled over.”
Webplan, Inc.
Philippe Lavie, “More consolidation in healthcare,

President, transportation, and technology software
KeyRoad
Enterprises, companies with additional short-term staff
a CustomerCentric shrinkage. Point solutions for mission critical
Selling Affiliate challenges will receive more buyers' attention
than large, somewhat integrated, and expensive
solutions.”

Ted Henson, Chief “Users will use standard desktop applications to
Learning interface with complex enterprise applications.
Strategist, Global
Knowledge, This will reduce reluctances to adopting new
Knowledge systems, reduce training needs, and increase
Products productivity.”
William Grosso, “Microsoft will become a leading player in the

Member, Board of CRM space faster than anyone expected… One
Directors,
Software of the leading companies will fail...”
Development
Forum
Trend #7:
Web Services Show
Demonstrated ROI
Don Tapscott, “Web Services, despite the hype, will become

President, integrated into enterprise IT architectures. IT
New Paradigm
Learning strategy will be based in “Services Based
Corporation Architectures.”
Kaj Van de Loo, “Web Services will start to seriously take off...the
Director, Product first packaged applications that offer some Web
Strategy,
GBU Commerce, Services out-of-the-box will hit the market…”
SAP Labs, Inc.
Richard Petersen, “Web Services will be used for real application

VP Product integration, however, to most employees and
Marketing,
Infravio, Inc. customers, Web Services will remain an
invisible, back-end technology, so the press will
proclaim that Web Services are failing to live up
to vendor hype.”

Jnan R. Dash, “Integration across disparate islands of
Executive applications remains the number 1 issue with
Consultant &
former Group VP at Enterprises. Web Services picks up steam to
Oracle address this area with lower connection cost.”
Dave Asprey, “Systems and network management players will

Director, Strategy, embrace Web Services as a common integration
Cable & Wireless
technology, enabling enterprises to “roll their
own” management packages that combine the
best of monolithic traditional SNM frameworks
(HP, BMC, Tivoli, etc.) with strong niche offerings
from smaller SNM vendors. (NetIQ, Wyle,
Collation, DigitalFuel, etc.)”
Trend #8:
Marketing has Changed Forever
Brad Peppard, “As the online medium delivers more reliable,

President, projectable, results at a reasonable cost, big
CinemaScore
Online Inc. agencies and their fortune 500 clients are going
to continue to increase the share of marketing
dollars that are allocated in this direction.”
Cia Romano, CEO “In the face of consumer backlash against

and Founder, conventional Web advertising, companies are
Interface Guru (tm)
turning to permission-based, interactive
branding such as contextual cross-selling,
newsletters, and polling.”
Aaron Heinrich, “… proliferation of product placements in video

SVP, Manning and online games.”
Selvage & Lee

Trend #9:
Significant Inroads Made on
Eliminating Spam
Brad Peppard, “Tools for handling spam are going to take a

President, quantum leap next year as they become a
CinemaScore
Online Inc. normal part of e-mail client software. Automated
filters built on a combination of collaborative
filtering shared across the Internet, customized
filtering such as pattern recognition (e-mail from
anyone in my address book is ok), and layered
filtering (direct to trash vs. red flag vs. yellow flag
vs. unknown vs. advertising) will cut the spam
you have to deal with by 99%.”
Andy Sernovitz, “Spammers will get sued right out of business.”

CEO, GasPedal
Mitchell Levy, “I get 1,000 spam e-mails a day and would be

President & CEO, happy to test-drive any proposed solution.
ECnow.com
Please don't spam me.”
Trend #10:
Users Will Get More
of What They Want
Hank Barnes, “Increased focus on designing business and

SVP of Software processes from the outside-in, that is, the way
Marketing and
Strategy, divine, your customers want it, not the way you have
Inc. executed traditionally.”

Cia Romano, CEO “User expectations of Web sites will continue to
and Founder, rise, fueled by lean and mean models such as
Interface Guru (tm)
Google. Companies failing to embrace current
best-of-breed solutions such as content
management systems, intelligent search, and
usability testing will face two concurrent
challenges: dropping audience numbers and
increasing production costs.”
Chris Consorte, “Back to the basics on (online) customer service.

Marketing Companies doing business online will finally
Consultant /
Partner, realize that the customer really is king. It's the
Integrated Direct customer that's empowered, they have a choice,
and companies are finally going to realize that
the power of the Web truly lies in customer
service and in doing better (and more efficient)
business with the end-user. This will include
better use of e-mail with the customer, fulfillment,
order-taking, and general inquiries.”
Jack Powers, “Increasingly intelligent ECRM software will

Director, IN3.ORG, analyze customers' price expectations and
the International
Informatics dynamically re-price items upward to avoid
Institute ''leaving money on the table” in electronic
transactions.”

BONUS Trend:
Key Areas to Keep an Eye On
Include: Security, Wireless,
Real-time Business Intelligence,
Broadband
Security
Kaj Pedersen, “The demand for more tools to analyze and

CEO, Urbana derive meaningful information from a diverse and
Software
distributed number of sources will become
critical as the “war on terrorism” gains
momentum in the global political landscape.”
Randy Haykin, “Holistic security: 9/11/01 has made enterprises

Managing Partner, and governments more safety-conscious.
Outlook Ventures
Security spans from the individual (such as
identity checking) to the enterprise (such as
business continuity planning or BCP) and in the
future beyond to collaboration partners.”
Alan Karp, “People will continue to say that security is

Principal Scientist, critical to making e-commerce viable, but they
Hewlett-Packard
still won't be willing to pay extra for it.”
RTE
Mike Turner, CEO, “The Real Time Enterprise (RTE) is about people
Waveset looking at fresh information and making different
Technology
decisions based on that data. Today, most
organizations are looking in the rear view mirror
and making forward moving decisions based on
what they see behind them. The RTE allows
people to look out the side windows to predict
where to go next.”

Randy Haykin, “Real-time proactive systems - If information is
Managing Partner, available almost everywhere, systems can
Outlook Ventures
leverage that information to be more proactive in
real-time. Today, C-level managers are
demanding real-time information on their
companies in order to stay proactive and
competitive.”
Jnan R. Dash, “Real-time Business Intelligence becomes hot in

Executive 2003. Near real-time access to the right
Consultant &
former Group VP at information by the right user becomes crucial for
Oracle staying ahead in the game.”
Wireless
Gloria Gery, “Wireless. Nothing more needs to be said. We're

Principal, burdened by connectivity issues. Lots of work is
Gery Associates
performed away from the office context. It needs
to be supported.”
Thomas Wong, “Mobile/PDA applications that integrate with the

Author and Internet will become easier to use and provide
Consultant,
Intesync more business transactions for the masses.”
Steve Weissman, “Wireless computing will come into its own as

President, Kinetic security and management issues begin to be
Information LLC
successfully addressed.”
Broadband
Russell Levine, “Look for the Internet and broadband TV content

CEO, Zoomedia, to converge in style and impact.”
Inc.

C h a p t e r
9 2002 Predictions
The top 2002 predictions are heavily influenced

by two key events in 2001: the September 11
terrorist attack and the dot.com bust. Even with
these two negative events, the predictions are
still primarily positive as society continues to
make the transition from the industrial age to the
Internet age, creating plenty of opportunity for
continued growth and e-volution.


1. Increased security and safety focus

(correct).
2. Revenue (not at the expense of margin) will
be the primary driver (partial).
3. Companies will start dropping the “E”
(partial).
4. Late 2002 recovery (no).
5. Major industry consolidation (correct).
6. Customer experience will become vogue
(no).
7. Functions vs. features (correct).
8. Collaborative commerce grows and meets
P2P (no).
9. “Blended solutions” is the major new
buzzphrase (no).
10. “Transparent commerce” is another new
buzzphrase (no).
Bonus Trends
1. Prediction of key technology/classes of
applications that will experience growth.
2. The Value Equation helps companies
succeed.

Trend #1:
Increased Security and Safety
Focus
Security through smart chips and retinal

identification will find increased acceptance.
Additionally, the call for a national (and ultimately
a worldwide) Smart Card based identification
system will gain significant momentum.
Mark Resch, CEO, “September 11, 2001 affects everything.”

CommerceNet
James Biorge, “Increased attacks by hackers will require new

Chairman/CEO, security standards through Smart Cards that will
1steTech
make the virtual world more secure than the
physical world in which we live.”
Raymond A. “There will be legislation to prevent certain

Kowalski, Director anonymous purchases, such as airline tickets,
of Technology
Policy, United for cash. Cash will still be accepted as payment,
States Chamber of but not without verification of identity.”
Commerce
Dave Asprey, “Web and e-mail traffic will continue to flourish,

Director, Strategic especially as the US public realizes that “snail
Planning, Exodus
Communications mail” can be used by terrorists.”
Ed Moed, “There will be greater spending in security

Managing Partner, software and data storage, as well as other
Peppercom
e-commerce/technologies that can help
companies operate in various areas efficiently,
but are very cost-effective.”

Trend #2:
Revenue (not at the Expense of
Margin) will be the Primary Driver
In addition to traditional and Internet-based

revenue, the metrics of Web-assisted and
Web-shifted revenue will come into vogue.
Darlene K. Mann, “Without a focus on “e-profit”, there will be very

General Partner, little interest in e-business.”
ONSET Ventures
Chuck DeVita, “e-commerce/e-business will be a major force in

President, Growth corporations returning to profitable growth.”
process Group
Jim Sterne, “I'm seeing a shift from personalization and

President, Target one-to-one marketing and Web analytics over to
Marketing
e-metrics. The fascination with the possible is
wearing off and the need to focus on actual ROI
is growing.”
Kevin Tate, Vice “Big companies will further specialize by

President, Global outsourcing to partners and third-parties as Toys
Markets - Fort
Point Partners R Us and Circuit City have recently done with
Amazon. Companies will take a hard look at their
core values and capabilities, and throw many
other operations over the wall to a third party.
Logistics/Fulfillment outsourcing is old news, but
now it's moving to the demand side, with
e-commerce and direct marketing leading the
way for some companies.”

Trend #3:
Companies will Start Dropping
the“E”
The holistic corporation will realize that business

is business, regardless of the medium used to
conduct it. E-Commerce implementations will
focus on delivering the total end-to-end solution.
Mark Hogan, “e-business will become better integrated with

Group Vice core business.”
President, GM,
President, e-GM,
General Motors
Mark Resch, CEO, “We don't talk about the telephone

CommerceNet enable-economy.”
Punita Pandey, “business = business”

President & CEO,
netCustomer
Brandon Hall, Lead “Global and enterprise-wide: Solutions will

Researcher, become not just a division or
brandon-hall.com
departmentalselection, but organizations will be
challenged to take the solution and goglobal
withit, extending it beyond employeesand
vendors.This will accelerate as you gain more
momentum within your organization.”

Trend #4:
Late 2002 Recovery
After the overall corporate purge of excess and

obsolete inventory in mid-to-late 2001,
companies will start reinvesting in the goods and
services it needs to survive and create profitable
entities. This, coupled with the money spent on
the US war efforts, will bring a slight US recovery
in late Q3, 2002.
Jim Sterne, “The economy will pick up, and it's all about
President, Target consumer confidence. After the debacle of the
Marketing
dot.com belly-ups, we were wallowing in the
hangover. After September 11, we've realized
that there are more important things in life than
stock options and we're getting tired of sitting on
our duffs moaning about how slow everything is.
As a nation, our attitude is changing into: 'If it's to
be, it's up to me'.”
Mark Grossman, “In 2002, every tech company is a potential

Attorney and Chair defense contractor. They just need to figure out
of the Technology
Law Department, a way to apply their technology to security or the
Becker & Poliakoff, war effort.”
P.A.
Peter M. Ostrow, “There will be a recovery in the financial markets

President and in 2002 that will reopen the IPO market. At least
CEO, TestMart
10 B2B organizations will file and go public.
Those that are at (or closest to profitability) will
be the first.”

Trend #5:
Major Industry Consolidation
With the capital markets remaining difficult to

raise money, there'll be a continued
consolidation in the business world as both
traditional and dot.com companies continue to
be acquired or run out of money and go out of
business.
Sheridan Tatsuno, “There will be a major market shakeout and

Principal, consolidation of e-commerce vendors.”
Dreamscape
Global
Bill Lipsin, “There will be fewer players in the market

President & CEO, through either consolidation, lack of cash to
Ironside
Technologies, Inc. sustain their business, or their inability to
manage through these tough economic times.”
Brandon Hall, Lead “More vendor consolidations: In the coming year,

Researcher, we will see more vendor consolidations, which is
brandon-hall.com
a good thing. Some companies may disappear
altogether, while other companies will merge,
which we've already seen happening. Using the
learning management system category as an
example, with over 120 different products on the
market, the industry does not need, and cannot
support, this many products. More
consolidations will be an advantage for overall
growth in this category.”

Trend #6:
Customer Experience will Become
Vogue
Although companies have talked about the

customer being king, this philosophy is paid only
lip service in a majority of companies. In 2002,
we'll see the position of CCEO “Chief Customer
Experience Officer” starts to proliferate among
companies. The lifetime value of the customer
will be a key focus of the CCEO.
Paul Robinson, “Customer Relationship Management (CRM) will

Co-Founder and emerge as THE single most important key
President,
NetByTel strategic initiative for e-business and
e-commerce companies in 2002. As the market
becomes more and more commoditized, the only
way for these companies to differentiate
themselves will be through superior customer
service. The e-commerce/e-business companies
that truly know and understand their customers
and offer the ability to order and get information
anytime, from anywhere, using any device will
ultimately win the battle for customers and
profits.”
Tom Rearick, VP of “I see the emergence of Experience as a service

Product Strategy, differentiator. The way that commodity markets
eGain
Communications, differentiate their products predicts how
Inc. economies evolve in the future. Commodity
manufactured goods (e.g., IBM mainframes) are
differentiated by service. The US Gross
Domestic Product is no longer dominated by raw
materials or manufacturing, it is now a service
economy. IBM gets most of its revenue from
service. But how do you differentiate service
when it becomes a commodity? The answer is to
deliver a superior customer experience.”

Punita Pandey, “Customers will take center stage.”
President & CEO,
netCustomer
Trend #7:
Functions vs. Features
The user community will pay more attention to

the functions that products deliver as opposed to
the features (bells and whistles) they have. Web
Services are well positioned to help make this
trend a reality.
Gloria Gery, “Simplification. It's just too damn difficult to

Principal, Gery perform even the simplest procedural, process,
Associates
and cognitive tasks. Too many variables. Too
much interpretation and transformation required.
We'll focus on stripping out irrelevant features,
functions, content, and tools and filter them to
provide just what's needed at the moment of
need.”
Andrew J. Birol, “If the technology enhances human

Business understanding it will be valuable; otherwise new
Development
Expert and functionality will be likely to go unvalued.”
President, PACER
Associates, Inc.
Tom Rearick, VP of “A Web site (or other Internet communications

Product Strategy, channel) either offers greater convenience over
eGain
Communications, existing forms of media, including picking up the
Inc. phone, or it has no reason to exist.”

Trend #8:
Collaborative Commerce Grows
and Meets P2P
Companies will continue to grow their value Web

relationships and strive to increase efficiency
among the participants. Peer to peer technology
and processes find their way in the B2B space
helping improve the efficiency of many
collaborative efforts. Additionally, there will be an
increased focus on sharing useful “confidential”
data among participants of the value Web.
Marty Gruhn, Vice “P2P will emerge as the power platform for group
President and collaboration applications and early entrants will
Practice Director,
Summit Strategies be the darlings of the VC and IPO crowds.”
Bill Lipsin, “Trading partners on both sides of the transaction

President & CEO, (i.e. buyers and sellers) will begin to REALLY
Ironside
Technologies, Inc. connect so that it is a win-win for all involved.”
Steve Rabin, CTO, “A focus on collaboration for operational

eB2B, Commerce, excellence.Higher returns for all trading partners
Inc.
come from collaborating across the operational
order management life cycle. This includes
everything from requisition through payments
and all of the business documents that must be
exchanged to complete a trade.”

Trend #9:
“Blended Solutions” is the Major
New Buzzphrase
Making the transition from the on-line learning

space, blended solutions become vogue as
product and service companies deliver blended
(integrated on-line and on-ground) solutions to
their customers.
Paul Robinson, “The number of pure-play e-commerce

Co-Founder and companies will rapidly decline in 2002, making
President,
NetByTel their numbers almost extinct, as they realize the
need to implement a multi-channel sales strategy
and to offer customers telephone ordering
capability and other outlets to increase sales.”
Ted Henson, Chief “Meta applications, that permit end users to

Learning control the interaction between elements from
Strategist, Global
Knowledge different sources' will gain a foothold in
businesses.”
Trend #10:
“Transparent Commerce” is
Another New Buzzphrase
Also being bantered around as u-commerce

(Ubiquitous Commerce), this is where commerce
occurs automatically without getting in the way of
our lives. Automatic bridge tolls and stop light
violations, as well as product recommendations
from trusted sources that automatically turn into
sales, are good examples of what we'll see.

Sheridan Tatsuno, “… beginning of location-based wireless
Principal, business services (sales, logistics, fleet
Dreamscape
Global management, taxis, etc.”
Brad Peppard, “… dawn of the usable PDA phone. Fear is a

President, great driver of innovation. The phone/PDA mix is
CinemaScore
Online, Inc. still floundering, but the benefits are there to
drive the PDA market to the next level. Look for
the breakthrough product to hit late in 2002.”
Leland Harden, “Currency barriers will come crashing down.

President, Right now it continues to be difficult for
Web-Runner
Networks consumers to shop internationally and for
e-tailers to accept payment from international
consumers, but companies like Promisant,
FEDS, E4X and Fexco, will begin to get
recognition and critical mass. This will enable
e-tailers to have a 'Pick Your Currency' option at
their checkout.”
Bonus Trend #1:

Prediction of key
technology/classes of applications
that will experience growth
• The Killer Apps: blended customer service
solutions, P2P for both consumers and
businesses (collaborative commerce),
self-service for both consumers and businesses
• Other Areas of Growth: security, instant

messaging video conferencing, smart card
identification, IP telephony location-based
commerce, mobile applications, collaborative
commerce, 1x1 marketing tied to metrics,
pay-per-view content

Kevin Tate, Vice “Peer-to-peer will emerge as 'the next killer app'.
President, Global Only e-mail has enjoyed the adoption rate and
Markets - Fort
Point Partners sense of inevitability that instant messaging and
file-swapping are showing now in business and
social communities. It's only going to get bigger.”
Chris Pirillo, Chief “E-Commerce integration in instant messaging

Executive will occur.”
Ding-Dong,
Lockergnome.com
Peter Harrison, VP “Economic pressures will be the catalyst for

Adoption every leading company to mandate employee
Consulting,
GetThere, A Sabre use of self-service intranets for booking business
Company trips, filing expense reports, etc.”
Leland Harden, “IP telephony will get a solid foothold. AT&T has
President, already said that long distance is not a viable
Web-Runner
Networks business model. They see the handwriting on the
wall. More and more companies will begin
implementing IP telephony in earnest in '02, thus
making PBX's obsolete.”
Craig J. Mathias, “M-commerce will gain in importance and value,

Principal, Farpoint but 2002 is not the breakout year. M-commerce
Group
does, however, remain the 'killer app' for wireless
data.”
Craig J. Mathias, “Location-based services likewise will gain

Principal, Farpoint interest and some subscribers, but real traction
Group
won't occur before 2004.
Raymond A. “The e-commerce business model will quickly

Kowalski, Director shift from the 'broadcasting' model of free
of Technology
Policy, United content supported by site advertising, to a
States Chamber of 'pay-per-view' model, where the customer pays
Commerce for content in the form of subscriptions.”

Dave Asprey, “Web Services will take off but hit some of the
Director, Strategic hurdles that EDI originally ran into; namely,
Planning, Exodus
Communications differing standards.”
Ken Campbell, “The e-business application will be

Entrepreneur I-conferencing (Internet-based video). The cost,
hassles and nervousness of travel will bring back
this long promised communications medium to
reality.”
Michael Abbott, “J2ME will become the dominant development

Founder, Code environment for wireless handheld devices (RIM
Metamorphosis
Blackberrys, Phones, PDAs), and the 'killer
application' will still be messaging (SMS, e-mail)”
Bonus Trend #2:

The Value Equation
HelpsCompanies Succeed
Companies will start using the Value Equation to

ensure they are creating value today and will
continue to do so well into the future (okay, this
one is self-promotion).
Guy Kawasaki, “Entrepreneurship won't die.”

CEO, Garage
Technology
Ventures

C h a p t e r
10 2001 Predictions

Trend #1:
The More Things Change, the
MoreThey Stay the Same
The tried and true basics of business will be back

– to remind us of the old-fashioned principles that
still seem to work, even in this new
Internet-enabled world. Profitability, revenues,
and proven processes will be key. (Correct)

Trend #2:
The New Economic Environment
Although we are already mired in the New

Economy, we are just at the beginning of the
changes, as brick and mortar companies race to
be successful online, and dot.coms try to
dethrone established companies’ brands. There
will be more consolidation, hybrids, partnering,
and new business models that will shift the mix
and balance of power. (Correct)
Trend #3:
A New Internet-enabled World
In the not too distant future, the use of the

Internet will be routine, rather like electricity, as
the comfort level with the technology and this
method of doing business evolves. Not only will
more of our work and personal lives be
connected because of the evolving technology
infrastructure, but more integrated as well.
Processes and functions that we use in the
workplace will make their way into our homes. A
total Internet-enabled world where every IP
appliance can coordinate an exchange
transaction with or without a human guide, is
right around the corner. (Partially correct)

Trend #4:
Customers Rule
With the Internet, customers have gained

considerable power to choose with whom they
will do business, where and when. The need for
intense customer focus and exemplary customer
service will continue into the future, as
customers remain central to the growth of
e-commerce. (Partially correct)
Trend #5:
Better, Faster, and Maybe
Cheaper
With continued learning and experimentation,

companies will build better products and services
by using the multiple capabilities of their own
companies and also their partners. Price may still
be a determinant in customers’ buying decisions,
but value received is becoming more important
than price by itself. New ways to conduct
business enabled by technology will lead to
many new opportunities for companies, with
improved choices for customers and more
efficient payment mechanisms for the exchange
of value between parties. (Correct)

Trend #6:
Business Models and Value Webs
Just when you thought things were settling down

with business models, be prepared for more
changes. Improvements in efficiency of the
supply chain and logistics, disintermediation and
continuing complex are part of the future.
(Correct)
Trend #7:
New Standards and Rules Create
Opportunity
There has been much controversy and

discussion about privacy and security and how it
affects e-commerce. Quite often, new
regulations and laws can be perceived as just
more bureaucracy that gets in the way of doing
business. However, as security issues are
mitigated and standards are commonly deployed
for security and privacy, new opportunities will
actually be created for business. (Correct)
Trend #8:
Evolving Infrastructure and Tools
Many advances have been made in integrating

front office and back office systems both in a
company and via the ASP/BSP model.

Technologies that improve speed, collaboration
or integration of processes will be a requirement
for survival and growth in the future. (Correct)
Trend #9:
The New Face of Marketing
As companies continue to wrestle with issues

about online and offline branding, we are
entering a new era of personalization. Marketing
will be faced with implementing new approaches
in the Internet-enabled world. (Correct)
Trend #10:
New Dimensions for Growth and
Evolution
As today’s leaders make decisions about

tomorrow’s growth, many factors are at work in
this new environment that will make a huge
impact. Technologies such as wireless and
portable computing will provide more ways to
access the Internet and require companies to
provide content accordingly. The world
marketplace means greater demand for products
and services, and companies need to figure out
how to build businesses across geographic
boundaries. We are faced with much growth in
the next few years. Whether it happens slowly or
quickly, we all need to be armed with the lessons
we have learned so far to be better prepared to
meet all the challenges of the brave new world.
(Correct)

Bonus Trend:
Peer-to-Peer Commerce Takes
Off
eBay is remarkably successful and first coined

the concept of C-C commerce. Regardless of
whether Napster actually survives, it's existence
will have resulted in the morphing of the music
industry. Napster also helped demonstrate that
peer-to-peer commerce may be the most widely
participated business model on the Internet.
Having passed legislation of digital signatures,
with SET (Secure Electronic Transactions)
individuals can swap digital files, and create an
encrypted transaction contract; non-repudiation
of the event between the buyer and seller.
Individuals will begin to conduct peer-to-peer
commerce using digital cash, with new and
existing players trying to be the financial
intermediary. (Correct - with a vengence)

C h a p t e r
11 2000 Predictions

Trend #1:
B2B Growth Continues its
Dramatic Pace
B2B growth will continue at its dramatic 1999

pace, leading to more liquidity in the B2B
exchanges and inter-organizational virtual
enterprises. Part of this growth will stem from the
B2B practitioners borrowing successful
techniques already proven in the B2C
marketplace. (Correct)

Trend #2:
M&A Activity Escalates
Private, public, traditional and newly created

corporate Venture Capital funds will increase the
pace of mergers and acquisitions. We will
continue to see the “dot.com's” snapping up
physical real estate. In addition to technology
and market share as reasons for acquisition,
companies will be acquired for their employee
base (technical and managerial). (Correct)
Trend #3:
Privacy Concerns Increase
Privacy concerns will increase in the U.S. as the

public becomes more aware of how their Web
site activity can be tracked, profiled, and merged
with data collected from multiple off-line sources
to reveal very “personal” information about
themselves. (Correct - with a vengence)
Trend #4:
Dynamic Pricing Reaches
MostIndustries
Dynamic pricing will extend into numerous

industries via the name-your-own-price model
(such as Priceline) and the Auction (such as
eBay) model. (Didn't significantly materialize)

Trend #5:
ASP's Capabilities Expand
ASPs (Application Service Providers) will

continue to increase the quantity and quality of
their customers and the robustness of their
service offerings. The ASP model, as it becomes
more pervasive, will lead to a dramatic change in
how the software industry produces and
distributes software. (Correct)
Trend #6:
Wireless Applications Become
MoreCommon
Wireless Internet access will have rapid adoption

in the U.S., possibly catching up to Europe.
Wireless technology will be incorporated into
standard business operations, will be used to
deliver in-store competitive pricing, and remote
e-mail anywhere, contributing to a steep rise in
online usage. (First part, silly prediction, second
part happened)
Trend #7:
Free Extends into B2B Space
“Free” continues as a B2C

(business-to-consumer) e-commerce model and
extends into the B2B (business-to-business)
world. (Didn't significantly materialize)

Trend #8:
Customer-Centric Corporate
Restructuring
For the global 2000 companies that adapt and

integrate the Internet into their businesses, a
customer-centric view will start reshaping their
culture and infrastructure. (Only partially correct)
Trend #9:
Executive Inability to Morph
The majority of global 2000 corporations will

recognize that e-commerce is a reality they must
embrace, but the majority of top executives will
be unable to “morph” their corporations into
holistic Internet-enabled entities. (Correct - few
exceptions)
Trend #10:
Expanded ECM Deployment
Brick-and-mortar companies will continue to

deploy e-commerce efforts that integrate with
their core business. After Y2K preparation and
cleanup, e-commerce will hit the business world
like a tidal wave. Year 2000 will see a significant
increase in the number of traditional companies
that extend their brands onto the Web and meld
on and off-line marketing activities. (Correct)

C h a p t e r
12 1999 Predictions

Trend #1: While consumer-based security

concerns continue to decrease, privacy concerns
will increase leading companies for focus on the
non-monetary forms of currency (time, attention.
and trust). (Partial, security concerns decreased
while privacy concerns increased, however not
enough attention was placed on the
non-monetary forms of currency)
Trend #2: Companies will begin to recognize

that the value-added activity begins after the
customer hits 'submit order' and that customer
service will become the point of differentiation.
(Correct)
Trend #3: Movement of EC to a service industry

rather than purely product or technology
driven...outsourcing EC functions becomes very
popular. (Correct)

Trend #4: More top-level executives will focus on
and be responsible for EC. (Not yet, where some
companies are talking the talk only a small
percent are walking the walk)
Trend #5: Dramatic increase in access speeds

and appliances (mobile devices, ATMs,
home/office appliances, etc.) connecting to the
Web and integrated into EC applications.
(Correct)
Trend #6: Continue growth of affinity groups

(e.g. Chemdex, Metalsite, Rosettanet, etc.).
(Correct - with a vengence)
Trend #7: Continued price transparency with

auctions and other real-time pricing
vehicles...will see prices for scarce items
increase and prices for commodities decrease.
(Correct)
Trend #8: Shopping: a) Wallets and “impulse

buying” will take root, b) Price-driven buying:
looking for the best deals will be a big play and c)
Special EC function keys will appear on key
boards. (Partial: While price-driven buy
occurred, wallets didn't stick and special EC
functions didn't appear on key boards)
Trend #9: Will see a non US-based player

dominating some EC space. (Didn't materialize
yet)
Trend #10: 1999 and 2000 will be the years of

“show me the money,” essentially companies will
continue to demonstrate success with EC while
small to medium enterprises (SMEs) flock to the
net. (Correct)

C h a p t e r
13 1998 Predictions

Trend #1: Other forms of currency take focus

(time, attention, and trust). (Wrong, not as much
focus in '98 as expected)
Trend #2: Consumer acceptance of SSL

security. (Correct)
Trend #3: Login/password authentication will

start going away. (Wrong, not yet)
Trend #4: XML will start to replace HTML.

(Partially, most vendors have XML
implementations, slower than expected)
Trend #5: Too many solutions, particularly point

solutions, will be consolidation, but... (Correct)
Trend #6: Continued price transparency.

(Correct)
Trend #7: “True” e-commerce implementations

will be driven from the top-down. (Correct)

Trend #8: E-Commerce implementations will
focus on meeting business needs. (Mostly, still a
ways to go)
Trend #9: E-Commerce implementations will be

more than pretty pages. (Correct)
Trend #10: The definition of e-commerce will

expand. (Mostly, still a ways to go)

A u t h o r
About the Authors
Mitchell Levy is CEO and publisher of Happy

About (http://happyabout.info), a quick2publish
book publisher you should know about if you're
an author or are responsible for marketing for
your firm. His overarching goal in life has been to
put tools in the hands of corporations and individ-
uals to help them be successful.
Author of eight business books, he is also a
partner in CXOnetworking and sits on the Board
of Directors of Rainmaker Systems (NASDAQ:
RMKR). He was the former Chair of four
conferences at Comdex; creator of the
world-renown E-Commerce Management
Program at San Jose State University; and
managed the e-commerce component of Sun
Microsystem's $3.5 billion supply chain during
his nine years there.

Vasu Shastry, a software professional with over
15 years of global work experience in the
software industry; held various responsible roles
at different capacities. She has built
organizations from ground up and helped them
grow. Her diverse work experience from
start-ups to Fortune 500 companies, enabled her
establish unique development approaches,
resulting in with quality and timely enterprise
software solutions. During her tenure at Sun
Microsystems she built support engineering
organizations in APAC, EMEA and improved
Sun's customer experience through exceptional
production support. Her key areas of expertise
include Organizational development, Enterprise
Services, Outsourcing/Off-shore development,
Project / Program / Development Engineering
management.
212
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Create Thought Leadership

for your Company
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Having an MBA or PhD is great, however, putting
the word "author" in front of your name is similar
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Why wait to write your book?
Check out other companies that have built
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Contact Happy About at 408-257-3000 or go to

http://happyabout.info.
214 Your Book

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Purchase these books at Happy About
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Acknowledgment for the 2009 Contributors

Other Happy About books available include:

Part I This Year’s Predictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

Chapter 1 2009 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Part II Why Should You Believe . . . . . . . . . . . .37

Chapter 2 Predictability in Previous Years . . . . . . . . . 39

Chapter 3 2008 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

Chapter 4 2007 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

Chapter 5 2006 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

Chapter 6 2005 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131

Chapter 7 2004 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149

Chapter 8 2003 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167

Chapter 9 2002 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

Chapter 10 2001 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197

Chapter 11 2000 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203

Chapter 12 1999 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207

Chapter 13 1998 Predictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

Author About the Authors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211

Your Book Create Thought Leadership for your Company . . . 213

Books Other Happy About Books . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .215

Happy About Knowing What to Expect in 2009 vii

Looking at this year’s trends, there’s a lot of

It is my hope that we’re wrong about Trend #1

Happy About Knowing What to Expect in 2009 3

Bonus Trend: Potential Investment Opportunities

Trend 01: Obama Brings a

Ann H. McCormick, "There will be a surge of hope around the world

4 Chapter 1: 2009 Predictions

Jack Bass, The "Short-term predictions based on the anticipated

Hanoch McCarty, "Republicans will continue to argue against any

Happy About Knowing What to Expect in 2009 5

Jim O'Toole, "Congress will pass almost all of President

Trend 02: Despite the Obama

Pat Sonti, "The federal budget deficit, trade deficit, and

6 Chapter 1: 2009 Predictions

Nirvikar Singh, "The global economy will get worse in 2009, as

Grant Cardone, "Companies and industries that can only sell

William W. "The U.S. and world economies will struggle to

Happy About Knowing What to Expect in 2009 7

Steve Brown, "The US economy will remain in recession during

Phyllis Rockower, "The economy will continue to stay in recession."

Anyck Turgeon, "Strong push by the government to assist

8 Chapter 1: 2009 Predictions

Love Goel, "Retailers that survive will become more

Rich Goldman, V.P. "The economy continues to deteriorate through

Jennifer Vessels, "Revenue and profits to be down by 20% or more

Marian Salzman, "By spring, the subprime mortgage debacle was

Kay Compton "In the current economy and for sustenance,

Happy About Knowing What to Expect in 2009 9

Bob Beck, Owner "Companies will show their lack of 'Operational

John Wilkerson, "Fed interest rates will begin to rise as the

10 Chapter 1: 2009 Predictions

Trend 03: Continued Decline

Alexander B. "It's going to get a lot worse before it gets any

William W. "Real estate problems can be expected to

Steve Brown, "US Real Estate values will continue to erode.

Phyllis Rockower, "Housing prices will come down another 10-20%

Happy About Knowing What to Expect in 2009 11

Philip Newbold, "Real estate prices in non-Sun Belt areas will