1.3 Risk Management Techniques

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety
Module 1.3 Risk Management Techniques used in Oil and Gas Industries
Examples of Process System that would require Major Incident Risk Analysis
Concept safety evaluation, often to compare different design options Fire and explosion risk analysis Evacuation, escape, rescue analysis Vulnerability analysis of emergency systems Ship/platform collision studies Dropped object studies

Examples of Process System that would require Major Incident Risk Analysis
Dispersion, toxicity and smoke ingress analysis Explosion overprotection prediction Fire loading analysis of structures and determination of optimized fire protection arrangements Emergency readiness analysis Temporary refuge impairment study

Principals of Risk Management: Risk management can be defined as: The process of analyzing exposure to risk and determining how to best handle such exposure.

Stage in Risk Management:

Identifying the hazards. Evaluating the associated risks. Controlling the risks.

Risk Management

UK Health and Safety Executive. (HSE) Five steps to risk assessment

Step 1 Identify the hazards Step 2 Decide who might be harmed and how Step 3 Evaluate the risk and decide on precautions Step 4 Record your findings and implement them Step 5 Review your assessment and update if necessary
www.hse.gov.uk

Risk Analysis and Assessment

Risk analysis typically involves the following key steps:
Hazard identification (HAZID) Frequency analysis Consequence analysis Quantification of risks using output from frequency and consequence analysis Investigation of potential risk reducing measures Development of recommendations.

Qualitative Risk Assessment This approach is commonly known as qualitative or subjective risk assessment Does not assign hard figures/values Takes into account likelihood and consequences only

Qualitative Risk Matrix

Example

Hazard Identification Hazard : The potential to cause harm. Harm including ill health and injury, damage to property, plant, products or the environment, production losses or increased liabilities.

Assessing the Risks Risk : The likelihood that a specified undesired event will occur combined with the severity of the undesired event

Assessing the Risks

Quantitative Risk Assessment Commonly used in the high technology industries QRA tends to deal with the avoidance of low probability events with serious consequences to the plant and the surrounding environment.

Assessing the Risks Qualitative / Subjective Risk Assessment

Qualitative risk assessment involves making a formal judgment on the consequence and probability using: Risk = Severity x likelihood

Assessing the Risks

Example: The likely effect of a hazard may for example be rated: 1. Major Death or major injury or illness causing long term disability 2. Serious Injuries or illness causing short term disability 3. Slight All other injuries or illnesses

Assessing the Risks

Example: The likelihood of harm may be rated 1. High Where it is certain that harm will occur 2. Medium Where harm will often occur 3. Low Where harm will seldom occur

Assessing the Risks
Risk = Severity of Harm x Likelihood of occurrence
The simple computation gives a risk value of between 1 and 9 enabling a rough and ready comparison of risks In this case the lower the number, the greater the risk, and so prioritises the hazards so that control action can be targeted at higher risks.

Module 1.3 Risk Management Techniques used in Oil and Gas Industries Controlling Risk Risk Avoidance This strategy involves a conscious decision on the part of the organisation to avoid completely a particular risk by discontinuing the operation producing the risk e.g. the replacing a hazardous chemical by one with less or no risk potential Risk Retention The risk retained in the organisation where any consequent loss is financed by the company. There are two aspects to consider here, risk retention with knowledge and risk retention without knowledge.

Controlling Risk Risk Transfer This refers to the legal assignment of the costs of certain potential losses from one party to another. The most common way is by insurance Risk Reduction Here the risks are systematically reduced through control measures, according to the hierarchy of risk control

ALARP:
As low as reasonably practicable
Legislation requires employers to reduce risks to a level that is as low as is reasonably practicable (sometimes abbreviated as ALARP) To carry out a duty so far as is reasonably practicable means that the degree of risk in a particular activity or environment can be balanced against the time, trouble, cost and physical difficulty of taking measures to avoid the risk

ALARP describe the level to which we expect to see workplace risks controlled Sacrifice Time Trouble Money
Risk

Types of Risk Assessment

Within Industry, three types of risk assessment can be distinguished:
Assessment of large scale complex hazard sites, such as these found in the process and nuclear industries. These require QRAs General assessments of the complete range of workpalce risks as required under the Management of Health & Safety at Work Regulations, 1999. Risk Assessments required under specific legislation for example for hazardouz substances (COSHH Regulations, 1998), Manual Handling (Manual Handling Operations Regulations, 1992).

Risk Management Tools

Modeling, to provide input to a risk assessment process. HAZID, Hazard Identification in the initial stage of development HAZOP, Hazard and Operability study, Good complex systems or new technology Failure modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMEA / FMECA) Used where very detailed assessment is required Fault tree analysis / Event tree analysis: Good for complex systems where multiple accident causes exist Hazard Realisation Models, show how accidents occur in organisations.

Use of Modelling
Modelling is usually used in order to provide input to a risk assessment process Historically, modelling has considered the effects of loss of containment and potential effects of fire (thermal radiation) and explosion (blast) on the plant itself and any neighbours. Evacuation processes and systems can also be modelled.

Use of Modelling
This usually results in blast zones being identified, affecting future planning or the placement of the process plant. On a small scale this can be seen in the placement of domestic gas tanks and workplace acetylene & oxygen bottles. In other words, it is used prior to build or modification.

HAZID HAzard IDentification Studies

A high-level, systematic assessment of a plant, system or operation intended to identify potential hazards. This method is often used as a basis for risk assessment. The HAZID study is carried out by a team of competent engineers from a mixture of disciplines and is led by a person who is experienced in the techniques of HAZID studies. The study leader is often referred to as the HAZID Chairman Each area of the installation (or modification in the case of brownfield work) is considered against a checklist of hazards.

HAZID HAzard IDentification Studies

Where it is agreed by the participants that the hazard exists in a particular area, the risk presented by the hazard is considered, and all possible means of either eliminating the hazard or controlling the risk and/or the necessity for further study are noted on a HAZID worksheet. Actions are assigned to either discipline groups or individuals to ensure the mitigating control, or further study is completed.

HAZOP HAZard or OPerability Studies

Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP) have been used for many years as a formal means for the review of chemical process designs A HAZOP study is a systematic search for hazards which are defined as deviations within these parameters that may have dangerous consequences In the process industry, these deviations concern process parameters such as flow, temperature, pressure, etc.


Hazards are any operation that could possibly cause a release of toxic, flammable or explosive chemicals (including oil and gas) or any action that could results in injury to personnel or harm to the environment Operability considers any operation inside the design envelope that would cause a shutdown that could possibly lead to a violation of environmental, health or safety regulations or negatively impact profitability.

HAZOP HAZard or OPerability Studies As a basis for the HAZOP study the following information should be available:
Process flow diagram Piping and instrumentation diagram (P&IDs) Layout diagrams Material safety data sheets Provisional operating instructions Equipment data sheets Start-up and emergency shut-down procedures.


HAZOPs are used to identify both hazards and operability problems. Although hazard identification is the main focus, operability problems are also identified to the extent that they have the potential to lead to safety or environmental hazards, or have a negative impact on plant operations. Systematic analysis that encourages use of imagination Team effort with a chairman Use of Keywords or Guidewords


The process is as follows:
The system is divided into suitable parts or sub-systems, which are then analysed one at a time For each sub-system each parameter (flow, temperature, pressure, volume, viscosity, etc.) that has an influence on it, is noted. Guidewords are applied to each parameter in each subsystem. The intention is to prompt creative discussion of deviations and possible consequences For each significant deviation, possible causes are identified.


Guidewords
NO or NOT MORE or LESS AS WELL AS PART OF REVERSE OTHER THAN
Definitions
No part of the design intent occurs, such as no flow in a pipeline due to blockage. A quantitative increase or decrease of some parameter, such as flow, temperature, etc. All the design intentions are fulfilled and something happens in addition Only part of the design intention is fulfilled The logical opposite of the design intention occurs Something completely different than intended occurs


It is important to remember at all times that HAZOP is an, Identifying technique and not intended as a means of solving problems nor is the method intended to be used solely as an undisciplined means of searching for hazardous scenarios.

Quantitative Risk Assessment

QRA is most commonly used in the process industries to quantify the risks of major hazards QRA used in the offshore oil and gas industries, the transport of hazardous materials, the protection of the environment, mass transportation (rail) and nuclear industry.


Individual Risk is defined as the frequency at which an individual may be expected to sustain a given level of harm from the realisation of specific hazards.


Societal Risk A functional or psychosocial risk a person feels he/she is taking.


Quantitative Risk Assessment: Acceptance Criteria The HSE state that broadly, a risk of death of 1 in 1000 (1 x10-3) per annum is about the most that is ordinarily Accepted under modern conditions for workers in the UK And it seems to be the dividing line between what

Quantitative Risk Matrix Example

Risk Assessment Matrix (Probability and Likelihood Scales)
Likelihood rating
1
Severity Rating 1 Minor injury, minor damage Lost time injury, illness, major damage Major injury, disabling illness, major damage Single fatality, or permanent total disability Multiple fatalities Description Delay only Very Unlikely
2
Unlikely
3
May happen
4
Likely
5
Very likely
6
Certain or imminent
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH

Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)

The system is divided into sub-system that can be handled effectively. It involves:
Identification of the component and parent system. Failure mode and cause of failure Effect of the failure on the sub-system or system. Method of detection and diagnostic aids available.


A crucial step is anticipating what might go wrong. The development team should formulate as extensive a list of potential failure modes as possible Very important in design stage whether new build or modification http://www.fmea-fmca.com

Types of Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)

The Concept (CFMEA) is used to analyze concepts in the early stages before hardware is defined (most often at system and sub-system) The Design (DFMEA) is used to analyze products before they are released to production. (Design FMEAs are normally done at three levels system, sub-system, and component levels. This type of FMEA is used to analyze hardware, functions or combination). The Process (PFMEA) is normally used to analyze manufacturing and assembly processes at the system, sub-system or component levels. (This type of FMEA focuses on potential failure modes of the process that are caused by manufacturing or assembly process deficiencies).


For each component s functions, every conceivable mode of failure is identified and recorded. It is also common to rare the failure rate for each failure mode identified. The potential consequences for each failure must be identified along with its effects on other equipment, components within the rest of the system. It is then necessary to record preventive measures that are place or may be introduced to correct the failure, reduce its failure rate or provide some adequate form of detection.


Risk Priority Number (RPN) is a measure used when assessing risk to help identify critical failure modes associated with your design or process. The RPN values range from 1 (absolute best) to 1,000 (absolute best) to 1000 (absolute worst). The FMEA RPN is commonly used in the auto motive industry Below shows the factors that make up the RPN and how it is calculated for each failure
Severity (S) 1 No Risk for accid. or any effect on prod 2-3 No risk for accid, or insign, influ, or prod 4-6 Very low resk for accid, or risk for interrupt, prod, func. 7-9 Risk for accid, under spec. cond. or lack of pro.d. func. 10 Serius risk fr perrsonal injuries. Probability of occurrence (Po) 1 Remote prob.. Of occur, e.g. fool-proof design, <1/10,000 2-3 Very low prob. Of occur. No previous complaints, <1/1000 4-5 Low prob. of occur. <1/1000 6-7 Moderate prob, of occur. <1/100 8-9 High prob. of occur. <1/10 10 Very high prob. of occur, <1/1 Probability of detection (Pd) 1 Failure which always will be detected 2-4 Relatively high probability of detection 5-7 Moderate probability of detection 8-9 Low probability of detection alt, not included directly in test program 10 Failure will not be foundcannot be tested
Risk Priority Number (RPN)

Example of FMEA outcome

Fault Tree Analysis

A fault tree is a diagram that displays the logical interrelationship between the basic causes of hazard Fault tree analysis can be simple or complex depending on the system in question. Complex analysis involves the use of Boolean algebra** to represent various failure states
** Boolean algebra (or Boolean logic) is a logical calculus of truth vales, developed by George Boole in the 1840. wikipedia.org

Fault Tree Analysis

The first stage is to select the hazard or top event that is to be analysed. The tree is structured so that the hazard appears at the top. It is then necessary to work downwards, firstly by identifying causes that directly contribute to the hazard. When all the causes and sub-causes have been identified, the next stage is to construct the fault tree.

Fault Tree Analysis

Symbol Designation EVENT / CAUSE BASIC EVENT/CAUSE UNDEVELOPED EVENT/CAUSED AND gate OR gate Function Causes or events that can be developed further Basic or Root Causes or events that cannot be developed further Causes are not developed due to lack of information or significance Output event occurs only if all input events occur Output event occurs if any one of the input events occurs

Fault Tree Analysis Example Consider the simple circuit diagram shown below:

Fault Tree Analysis The corresponding fault tree for the above circuit, with the top event (or hazard) being the lamp not working is as follows:

Fault Tree Analysis

Event tree analysis is based on binary logic, in which an event either has or has not happened or a component has or has nor failed An event tree begins with initiating event, such as a component failure, increase in temperature / pressure or a release of hazardous substance The consequences of the event are followed through a series of possible paths. Each path is assigned a probability of occurrence and the probability of the various possible outcomes can be calculated.

Event Tree Analysis

Hazard Realisation Models

Single Cause Domino Theory
Ancestry & Social Environment
Fault of Person
Unsafe Act or Condition
Accident
Injury
Hazard Realisation Models

Single Cause Domino Theory
If one of the dominoes is removed then the chain of events will be halted and the accident will not happen Element 3 (unsafe act and/or mechanical or physical hazard) is probably the easiest factor to remove
Hazard Realisation
Accident Casual Chain: Swiss Cheese
The accident causal chain as explained by the Reason model, sometimes called the Swiss Cheese
Hazard Realisation
Accident Casual Chain: Swiss Cheese
Hazard Realisation
Loss of containment leading to: Ignition leading to: Explosion & Fire leading to: Damage, injury, death, destruction
Risk Control Models

Barrier Model: Bow Tie concept
The idea is a simple one of combining the cause (fault tree) and the consequence (event tree). When the fault tree is drawn on the left hand side and the event tree is drawn on the right hand side with the hazard drawn as a knot in the middle the diagram looks a bit like a bowtie, as shown.
Risk Control Models

Barrier Model: Bow Tie concept. Fault Side
Risk Control Models

Barrier Model: Bow Tie concept. Event Side
Risk Control Models

Barrier Model: Bow Tie concept.

1.3 Risk Management Techniques

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NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

Stage in Risk Management:

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

UK Health and Safety Executive. (HSE) Five steps to risk assessment

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

Risk Analysis and Assessment

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

Qualitative Risk Matrix

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

Assessing the Risks

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

Assessing the Risks Qualitative / Subjective Risk Assessment

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

Assessing the Risks

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

Assessing the Risks

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

As low as reasonably practicable

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

Types of Risk Assessment

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

Risk Management Tools

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

HAZID HAzard IDentification Studies

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

HAZID HAzard IDentification Studies

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

HAZOP HAZard or OPerability Studies

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

HAZOP HAZard or OPerability Studies

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

HAZOP HAZard or OPerability Studies

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

HAZOP HAZard or OPerability Studies

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

HAZOP HAZard or OPerability Studies

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

HAZOP HAZard or OPerability Studies

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

Quantitative Risk Assessment

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

Quantitative Risk Assessment

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

Quantitative Risk Assessment

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

Quantitative Risk Assessment

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety

Quantitative Risk Matrix Example

NEBOSH, International Certificate in Oil & Gas Operational Safety