Currencies Daily Report

Monday September 16, 2013 Monday|

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday September 16, 2013 Monday|

Highlights
Indian Rupee appreciated around 3 percent in the last week. US Core Retail Sales grew at slow pace of 0.1 percent in August August. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment fell to 76.8-mark mark in September September. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of unfavorable economic data from US eased the concerns of QE tapering from Federal Reserve. Further, Lawrence Summers has withdrawn himself for consideration of next Federal Reserve eserve chairman and making way for Janet Yellen who is in favor of slower reduction of stimulus measures. US Core Retail Sales grew at slow pace of 0.1 percent in August as against a rise of 0.6 percent in July. Producer Price Index (PPI) increased to 0.3 percent in August. Retail Sales gained by 0.2 percent in August from 0.4 percent a month ago. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment declined by 5.3 points to 76.8-mark mark in September with respect to 82.1 82.1level in August. Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations increased by 3.2 percent in current month when compared to 3 percent in August.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on September 13, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Oct13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Oct13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5850.6 19732.8 15376.06 1688.0 17463.5 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 108.21 1308.40 21.67

0.0 -0.2 0.5 0.3 -0.3 -1.5 0.2 0.2 -0.4 -1.7 -1.9

1.9 1.9 3.0 -0.4 0.0 0.2 8.8 -0.1 -2.1 -5.7 -8.4

1.9 1.9 2.0 -0.4 2.7 2.2 15.8 8.1 0.7 -4.2 -6.4

8.5 7.9 13.6 15.6 6.4 0.5 -5.4 66.3 10.1 -26.0 -37.4

US Dollar Index
Over the week, the Dollar Index (DX) weakened on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. Further, decline in US jobless claims data which was s at lowest level since April 2006 acted as a negative factor. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of unfavorable retail sales and consumer sentiments data from US. Additionally, decline in jobless claims data increased conce concerns of QE tapering from Federal Reserve in its meeting during the week. The DX touched a weekly low of 81.35 and closed at 81.448 on Friday.

7064.00 102.09

-0.1 0.0

-1.3 11.3

-10.0 11.9

-12.5 2.3

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on September 13, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Sep13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Sep13 Futures (MCX-SX)

81.45 63.37 63.81 63.79

-0.1 0.1 -0.21 0.21 -0.23 0.23

-0.9 2.9 4.03 3.99

0.2 -3.4 4.03 3.99

2.5 -12.9 15.05 15.02

Dollar/INR
During the last week, the Rupee appreciated around 3 percent on the back of favorable industrial production ction and manufacturing output data from the country. Further, decline in countrys inflation data supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, expectations of new measures to be declared by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor acted as a positive factor. Also, weakness in the DX, upbeat global and market sentiments along with increase in FIIs inflows led to positive movement in the currency. The Indian Rupee touched a weekly high of 62.91 and closed at 63.365 on Friday. For the month of September 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.6372.20 th crores ($986.41 million) as on 13 September 2013. Year to date basis, th net capital inflows stood at Rs.66542 crores ($12569.70 million) till 13 September 2013. Outlook In todays trade, Rupee is expected to trade on a positive note on the back of upbeat global and domestic market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of measures to be taken by the RBI in its policy meeting review this week will l act as a positive factor. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped or reversal can be seen on account of forecast for unfavorable inflation data from country.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Sep13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for September 16, 2013 Support 63.20/62.80 Resistance 64.10/64.40

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday September 16, 2013 Monday|

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated around 1 percent in the last week due to weakness in the DX. Further, optimistic global market sentiments supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was restricted as a result of unfavorable economic data from the region. The currency touched a weekly high of 1.3324 and closed at 1.3292 on Friday. Outlook

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on September 13, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Sep 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Sep13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3292 84.23 84.9 84.9

0.0 0.1 0.35 0.30

0.9 2.0 4.15 4.15

0.3 -3.7 4.15 4.15

3.0 -15.4 18.36 18.40

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro In todays session, we expect Euro to trade higher on the back of upbeat global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX will act as a positive factor. Additionally, expectations of favorable economic data from the country will support an upside movement in n the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Sep13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 84.30/84.00 84.90/85.20 valid for September 16, 2013 Support Resistance

GBP/INR
GBP (% change) On a weekly basis, The Sterling Pound traded appreciated around 1.6 percent due to upbeat global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX supported an upside in the currency.
$ / GBP (Spot)

Source: Telequote

as on September 13, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

1.5873 100.615 100.72

0.44 0.37 -0.34 0.34

1.6 -1.34 6.20

2.4 5.97 6.20

-1.4 12.38 40.85

Additionally, favorable economic data from the country coupled with decline ne in unemployment rate acted as a positive factor. The currency touched a weekly high of 1.5884 and closed at 1.5873 on Friday. UKs Rightmove House Price Index (HPI) declined by 1.5 percent in September as against a decline of 1.8 percent in August. Outlook In todays trade, we expect Pound to trade on a positive note taking cues from upbeat global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX will also continue upside movement for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Sep 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for September 16, 2013 Support 100.20/99.90 Resistance 100.90/101.20

GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Sep13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Sep 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

100.74

-0.31 0.31

6.25

6.25

40.87

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday September 16, 2013 Monday|

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen depreciated around 0.2 percent in the last week due to upbeat global market sentiments led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched a weekly low of 100.60 and closed at 99.34 on Friday. Outlook With sentiments remaining upbeat in the global markets will lead to decline in demand for the low yielding currency, fall in the Yen is expected. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Sep 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for September 16, 2013 Support 63.50/63.20 Resistance 64.10/64.40

JPY (% change)
Last

as on September 13, 2013 Prev day WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Sep13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Sep13 Futures (MCX-SX)

99.34 0.637 8 63.90 63.93

-0.2 0.13 -0.68 -0.63

0.2 -3.11 2.14 2.17

1.2 1.88 2.14 2.17

27.7 -10.66 -28.41 -28.39

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on September 16, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Bank Holiday ECB President Draghi Speaks CPI y/y Core CPI y/y Empire State Manufacturing Index Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m

Japan Euro Euro Euro US US US

All day 1:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 6:00pm 6:45pm 6:45pm

1.3% 1.1% 9.2 77.8% 0.5%

1.3% 1.1% 8.2 77.6% 0.0%

High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

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