POPULATION DYNAMICS & DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN INDIA :DEMOGRAPHY Introduction :-This word demography is derived from two words

.Demo population , Graphy to study . It is a branch of science which deals with the study of human population .It gives an accurate idea of the vital events like crude death rate ,birth rate &the changing pattern of population is of importance for a nation . from these information the impact of the health care delivery system in a given period of time is evaluated . POPULATION DYNAMICS :-Population is not static but is always in a dynamic state .the factors involved in population dynamics are :1.Deaths 2.Births 3.Migration Eradication of epidemics such as small pox and to some extent of malaria and kala azar & improvement of health care delivery system are some of the factors responsible for reduction of crude death rate . On the contrary , there has been only a marginal fall in the birth rate through out the years . It is this disparity between the death rate and death rate which results in the rapid rise of population . The problem becomes intensified by the dynamic migration of population from one state to the other or amongst different parts of the same state e.g .rural and urban . MAGNITUDE OF THE PROBLEM :The total world population was estimated to be about 6 billion in the last century . Earlier in the last century , the rate of increase of population was about 10 millions per year .it is now increasing at much faster rate of 100 million per year. If the rate continues at the same pace, the projected population would be 8000 million in 2025. India with 2.5% of the world land surface area has to accommodate about 16%of the world population , the 2nd most populous country in the world , next to china. Moreover , it is not uniformly distributed . The density of the population is 300 per square km. the death rate stood at the level of 8 per 1000and the birth rate at 25 per 1000 in mid 2003.thus , there is a wide gap between the births and deaths resulting in rapid rise of population . In India ,during the period of 1991-2001, the population increase was to the extent 160 million . This means an increase in population to the extent of 16 millions per year . This increase in population per year is almost equal to the total population per year is almost equal to the total population of Australia with a land area 2.5 times more than that of India . As the rate of population growth continues , India population has reached 1027 million in2001and the projected population in 2025 in 1,363 millions. In 2050 , the projected population is 1628 millions when India would be the worlds most populous country exceeding china .

IMPACT OF INCREASED POPULATION :The rapid increase of population has got an adverse effect on the national economy & as the increase is only limited to the developing countries , the problem becomes an acute one . Moreover increasing number of births have got a deleterious effect on the health of the mother and the child and hinders social and economic upliftment of the family . High parity is also related to increased maternal , perinatal and infant deaths and is associated with various obstetric and gynaecological complications and nutritional problems . Considering the magnitude of the problem , many developing countries . India in a particular have taken this as national programme of vital importance . DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN INDIA:1.AGE & SEX COMPOSITION: The age sex composition of Indias population according to the National Family Health Survey-2 done in 1998-99 is as shown in the table below: AGE 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+ TOTAL MALE 11.2 12.8 12.1 10.4 8.5 7.8 6.7 6.6 5.1 4.5 3.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.3 100.0 FEMALE 11.1 12.4 11.8 10.3 9.3 8.7 7.1 6.4 4.7 4.2 3.1 3.3 3.0 2.0 2.8 100.0

The proportion of population below 15 years is showing decline, whereas the proportion of elderly in the country is increasing. 1.AGE PYRAMIDS: The age structure of a population is best represented by an AGE PYRAMID. A vivid contrast may be seen in the age distribution of men and women in India and Switzerland. The age pyramid of India is typical of underdeveloped countries, with a broad base and a tapering top. In the developing countries, as in Switzerland, the pyramid generally shows a bulge in the middle, and has a narrower base. 2.SEX RATIO: Sex ratio is defined as the number of females per 1000 males. One of the basic demographic characteristics of the population is the sex composition. In any study of population, analysis of the sex composition plays a vital role. The sex composition of the population is affected by the differentials in mortality conditions of males and females, sex selective migration and sex ratio at birth. The sex ratio in India has been generally adverse to women, i.e. the number of women per 1,000 men has generally been less than 1,000. Kerala has a sex ratio of 1,058 females per 1,000 males in 2001. It is the only state with a sex ratio favourable to females.

SEX RATIO IN INDIA:

YEAR

FEMALES Per 1000 males 972 964 955 950 945 946 941 930 934 927 933

1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

1. DEPENDENCY RATIO: The proportion of persons above 65 years of age and children below 15 years of age are considered to be dependent on the economically productive age group (15-64 years). The ratio of the combined age groups 014 years plus 65 years and above to the 15-65 years age group is referred as the Total Dependency Ratio and reflects the need for a society to provide for their younger and old age dependency ratio (0-14 years) ; and old age dependency ratio (65 years and more). TRENDS IN DEPENDENCY RATIO IN INDIA (per 100):

YEAR

TOTAL DEPENDENCY

CHILD DEPENDENCY

OLD-AGE DEPENDENCY

1990

69

61

2000

62

54

2010

54

45

5. DENSITY OF POPULATION: It is one of the important indices of population concentration. In the Indian census, density is defined as the number of persons, living per square kilometre. DENSITY OF POPULATION IN INDIA( 1901-2001): YEAR 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 PER sq.km 77 82 81 90 103 117

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

142 177 216 267 324

6. FAMILY SIZE: Family size refers to the total number of persons in a family. In demography, family size means the total number of children a woman has born at a point in time. The completed family size indicates the total number of children borne by a woman during her child-bearing age, which is generally assumed to be between 15 and 45 years. The family size depends upon numerous factors, via- duration of marriage, education of the couple, the number of live births and living children, preference of male children desired family size. 7. URBANIZATION: Growing urbanisation is a recent phenomenon in the developing countries. The proportion of the urban population in India has increased from 10.84% in 1901 to 25.72% in 1991 and was 27.8 in the year 2001. The increase in urban population has been attributed both to natural growth(through births) and migration from villages because of employment opportunities, attraction of better living conditions and availability of social services such as education, health, transport, entertainment etc. 8. LITERACY & EDUCATION: In 1948, the Declaration of Human Rights stated that everyone has a right to education. It was decided in 1991 census to use the term literacy rate for the population relating to seven years age and above. A person is deemed as literate if he or she can read and write with understanding in any language. A person who can merely read but cannot write is not considered literate. The same concept has been continued in census 2001 also Kerala continues to occupy the top rank in the country with about 91% literates. Mizoram (88.49%) and Lakshadweep (87.52%) closely follow Kerala. In Bihar and Jharkhand with literacy rate of only 49%. The states which have literacy rate below the national average are Arunachal Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Jammu, Kashmir, U.P, Rajasthan, M.P and Orissa etc.

9. LIFE EXPECTANCY: Life expectancy or expectation of life at a given age is the average number of years which a person of that age may expect to live, according to the mortality pattern prevalent in that country Demographers consider it as one of the best indicators of a countrys level of development and of the overall health status of its population. EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH- India:

YEAR 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

MALES 23.63 22.59 19.42 26.91 32.09 32.45 41.89 46.40 50.90 58.10 62.18

FEMALES 23.96 23.31 20.91 26.56 31.37 31.66 40.55 47.70 50.00 59.10 64.00

Trends in life expectancy show that people are living longer, and they have a right to a long life in good health, rather than one of pain and disability. Health policy makers thus need to recognise this changing demographic pattern and plan for prevention and control of diseases associated with old age.