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Economic Management Journal

210013

C-D
19882009
1 GDP 0.15

Logistics and Regional Economic Growth-Evidence from the Space


Econometric Panel Data from China
Zhibing Cai*, Jianchu Zhou
The economic department of Jiangsu Party school, Nanjing, China, 210013
Email: czbcqx@163.com
Abstract: Unlike the traditional economic growth model, spatial contact must be noted when we construct relative models in the study of
the relationship between logistics industry development and regional economic. With the use of space panel econometric model and CD
production function, by constructing a regional logistics industry development and regional economic growth economic model, the study
of the economic growth of Chinese provinces and the logistics industry during 1988-2009 is carried out. The results show that there are
significant spatial correlation between Chinese province's economic growth and development of the logistics industry. 1 percent increase
in the neighboring provinces logistics industry will make the province's GDP increase about 0.15 percent. Finally, according to
estimations, some relevant policy recommendations are given.
Key words: Logistics; Eeconomic Growth; China; Space Econometric; Panel Data

2006GDP
GDPGDP[1]2007
[2]
2007GDP[3]2011

[4]
2003
[5]2007
[6]

EMJ July 2012 Vol.1 Iss.1 pp.1-8 www.em-j.org 2012 American V-King Scientific Publishing, LTD|1

Economic Management Journal


2008
[7]2009

[8]

2
2.1
(Spatial Auto Regressive ModelSAR)
(Spatial Error ModelSEM):
(SAR) y Wy X u
(SEM) y X W v

1
2

y X n k ()
W ( N
) 1 0

29

23 W I T T

T W WT C I T W
FPSARFPSEM
Elhorst2003

sF N sF 1 , 2 , N
iT sF iT T 1
FPSAR

y Cy X u

y X

FPSEM

C v
45 Matlab7.0 Spatial
econometrics

2.2

2| EMJ July 2012 Vol.1 Iss.1 pp.1-8 www.em-j.org 2012 American V-King Scientific Publishing, LTD

Economic Management Journal

Morans I
n

i 1

j 1

W Y
ij

Moran's I

S 2

1
n

Y Y

i 1

1
n

i 1

j 1

ij

Y Y i n
i

i 1

Wij
Morans I -11 0
0 0

2.3
CD

Yt f ( K t , Lt ) AK t Lt

C-D W solow

Yt f ( K t , Lt ,Wt ) AK t Lt Wt

Y A K L W

LnYit LnAi LnKit LnLit LnWit uit

i t uit

2.4
1988-2009 29

1989-2010

GDP 1978 GDP

Goldsmith 1951 OECD

Kit Ki ,t 1 (1 it ) I it

Kit i t K i ,t 1 i t 1 Lit i
EMJ July 2012 Vol.1 Iss.1 pp.1-8 www.em-j.org 2012 American V-King Scientific Publishing, LTD|3

Economic Management Journal


t it t 1952-2000
[9] it 5%

3
3.1

1 31

23

17

121416182227

1315

18

141719202224

124561516

19

1314182021

351627

20

18192425

34678272830

21

19

357

22

1718232427

568

23

22242526272829

57

24

1820222325

1011

25

20232426

10

9111215

26

23252931

11

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27

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12

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28

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13

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[10]

Rook
W : 0 i j Wij 1 0

1ij
Wij
0ij

10

i 1, 2,3 n; j 1, 2,3 m; m n

W 1 1 31
4| EMJ July 2012 Vol.1 Iss.1 pp.1-8 www.em-j.org 2012 American V-King Scientific Publishing, LTD

Economic Management Journal

GDP
2006

1 Yi Y j (i j )
Wij
0(i j )

Yi Yit T T0 Yit i t GDP


t T0

20022007[11,12]

3.2
1988-2009
Eviews6.0 LSDV
i 2
2 1988-2009
LnKit

LnLit

LnWit

Coefficient

0.4804

0.1523

0.0698

-1.2439

t-statistic

13.7005

5.7734

5.3782

-3.8842

Prob.

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

R2=0.9229Adjusted R2=0.9974F-stat.=289.673,DW-stat=0.6772

3.3
2 R2 Adjusted R2 2

DW =0.6772
Matlab 7.0 Spatial econometric 3
Prob.=0.0000

GDP
LMerror=38.0977 <LMlag=70.4503
FPSAR

EMJ July 2012 Vol.1 Iss.1 pp.1-8 www.em-j.org 2012 American V-King Scientific Publishing, LTD|5

Economic Management Journal


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3 1988-2009

0.2254

-0.1024

-0.2104

-0.3332

0.2189

0.2373

-0.1132

-0.3599

0.3275

0.3543

0.1824

-0.1214

0.2007

0.3366

-0.1836

-0.1558

-0.1763

0.1509

0.2778

-0.2518

0.2965

-0.2767

0.2274

-0.1844

-0.3308

0.2407

0.3004

0.1108

0.3302

4
N=609

LMerr

Value

Prob.

Robust LMlag

Morans I

LMlag

Robust LMerr

38.0977

70.4503

33.8813

68.1448

28.1878

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

56
1% 29
GDP 1 GDP
0.15

R2
GDP
0.56 0.25 1%
0.11 GDP

i
6| EMJ July 2012 Vol.1 Iss.1 pp.1-8 www.em-j.org 2012 American V-King Scientific Publishing, LTD

Economic Management Journal

5 1988-2009 FPSAR
LnK

LnL

LnW

0.5580

0.2543

0.1098

0.1497

t-statistic

23.1754

7.0987

8.6245

3.8793

Prob.

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

R2=0.9725Adjusted R2=0.9867log-likelihood=288.90342

6 1988-2009

0.2389

-0.1667

-0.2744

-0.2831

0.2150

0.3572

-0.1308

-0.3053

0.4927

0.5549

0.3855

-0.1828

0.3972

0.4314

-0.0923

-0.0847

-0.1903

0.2013

0.3717

0.4914

-0.3298

0.3942

-0.2022

0.2361

-0.2815

-0.2314

0.3443

0.4322

0.2167

4
GDP
GDP
GDP

4.1

EMJ July 2012 Vol.1 Iss.1 pp.1-8 www.em-j.org 2012 American V-King Scientific Publishing, LTD|7

Economic Management Journal

4.2

4.3

[1]

. [J]. : , 2006(6): 115-123.

[2]

, . [J]. : , 2007(4): 84-87.

[3]

, . [J]. , 2007(10): 12-14.

[4]

, . [J]. , 2011(03): 6-8.

[5]

, , . [J]. , 2003(8): 22-24.

[6]

, . [J]. , 2007(3): 40-42.

[7]

, . [J]. : ,
2008(3): 65-69.

[8]

. [J]. , 2009(12): 6-8.

[9]

, , . : 1952-2000[J]. , 2004(10): 35-44.

[10] . [M]. , 2008: 48-51.


[11] , . [J]. , 2002(01): 33-39.
[12] , . [J]. , 2007(01): 106-113.

1988-

(1957-)

E-mailjszjc@163.com

E-mail:czbcqx@163.com

8| EMJ July 2012 Vol.1 Iss.1 pp.1-8 www.em-j.org 2012 American V-King Scientific Publishing, LTD