EE 351K Probability, Statistics, and Random Processes Instructor: S.

Shakkottai Homework 1 Solutions

Fall 2013 shakkott@ece.utexas.edu

Problem 1 We are given that P (B A) = 0.15, P (A B ) = 0.65 and P (B c ) = 0.70. Determine P (A) and P (A B ). Solution : P (B A) = P (B ) P (A B ) = 0.15 Now, P (B ) = 1 P (B c ) = 1 .70 = 0.30 = P (A B ) = 0.15 We know that , P (A B ) = P (A) + P (B ) P (A B ) = 0.65 = P (A) = 0.50 Problem 2 Let A and B be two sets.

(a) Show that (A B ) (A B c ) = A. Also show that (A B )c = Ac B c . (b) Assume that a fair 6 sided die is rolled. Let A be the event where the sum is less than or equal to 6. Let B be the event that both the numbers are different. Verify the properties in part (a). Solution : Part a : We have B B c = and B B c = . Suppose x (A B ) (A B c ), = x is either in A B or in A B c . This naturally implies that x A. = (A B ) (A B c ) A Now, suppose x A . Now suppose that x does not belong to neither A B nor A B c . As x / A B , therefore x is in A but not in B . In this case we contradict that x A B c . in B but not in A. But this contradicts our assumption that x A neither in A nor B , which again is a contradiction. So, x (A B ) (A B c ) = A (A B ) (A B c ). = A = (A B ) (A B c ). Next we have to prove that (A B )c = Ac B c . Suppose x Ac B c = that x belongs to either Ac or B c . So, if x A B , then x is neither in Ac nor in B c , so this is a contradiction. So, x (A B )c . = Ac B c (A B )c . Similarly it can be proven that (A B )c Ac B c . Thus we get , (A B )c = Ac B c

Part b : A = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (4, 1), (4, 2), (5, 1)} B = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}c = A B = {(1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (2, 1), (2, 3), (2, 4), (3, 1), (3, 2), (4, 1), (4, 2), (5, 1)} A B c = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3)} So, A = (A B ) (A B c ). Problem 3 Show that P (A) + P (B ) P (A B ) = 1 P (Ac B c ). This implies that the probability that atleast one will occur is equivalent to 1 - Prob(none will occur). Use this identity to calculate the probability that out of n people, atleast two will have their birthday on the same day of the year. Make necessary assumptions. Solution : P (A) + P (B ) P (A B ) = P (A B ) . Now by De Morgans law, (Ac B c )c = A B So, P (A) + P (B ) P (A B ) = 1 P (Ac B c ). P(atleast two people having their birthday on the same day) = 1 - P(none having their birthday on the same day). Number of ways of n people having their birthday in a year = 365n (as each person has a choice of 365 days before them). Number of ways in which n people can have their birthday such that no two people have theirs on the same day = 365.364.363....(365 n + 1). ....(365n+1) So, P(none having their birthday on the same day) = 365.364.363 . 365n 365.364.363....(365n+1) = P(atleast two people having their birthday on the same day) = 1 . 365n Problem 4 Jimmy and Axle each choose a real number between 0 and 1. Let us dene the events,

A: The sum of the numbers is less than 0.75. B: The maximum of the numbers is less than 0.5. C: The two numbers are equal. D: Jimmys number is atleast .25 more than that of Axle. Find the probabilities P (A), P (B ), P (A B ), P (C ), P (D), P (A D). Solution Let x be the value Jimmy chooses and y be the value Axle chooses. We can then represent the sample space as a square on the x and y axis as shown in Figure 1. We assume that both of them choose the number independently and uniformly distributed from [0, 1]. In this context the event A bounded by the line x + y = 0.75 as shaded in the Figure 1, as the equation governing the event is x + y 0.75. The event B states that the max{x,y} must be less than 0.5. We note that in the area below the line x = y , x is greater and in the area above this line y is greater. So, in these two areas it sufces to limit x and y respectively to a value less than 0.5. Hence we get the area as shown in Figure 1.

 The event C is just the straight line representing x = y . The event D represents the are where x y 0.25 and is shown in the gure below.

Figure 1: The events It must be noted that the numbers are all equiprobable in the sample space. So, P rob(X ) =
area(X ) area(samplespace) .

With the above reperesentation the probability of the events and their intersection can be easily found out by calculating the area under the respective events. For example P (A B ) can be calculated by nding out the area that is both in A and B . Note that the event C is just a straight line with 0 area. So, P (C ) = 0, which may be counter-intuitive. This points us to the fact that the real line is uncountably dense, so the probability of Jimmy and Axle choosing the same number is 0. Problem 5 equally likely. We roll two fair 6-sided dice. Each one of the 36 possible outcomes is assumed to be

(a) Find the probability that two numbers differ by 2 or more. (b) Given that the roll resulted in a sum of 7 or less, nd the conditional probability that the two differ by atleast 2. (c) Find the probability that second die has number greater than that of rst die. (d) Given that the two dice land on different numbers, nd the probability that the sum is greater than or equal to 5. Solution : (a) A : {two numbers differ by 2 or more} = {(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),(3,5),(3,6),(4,6),(3,1),(4,1),(5,1),(6,1),(4,2),(5,2),(6,2),(5,3),(6,3),(6,4)}. = |A| = 20. = P (A) = 20 36

(b) B : {sum is 7 or less} = {(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(5,1),(5,2),(6,1)}. (AB ) Now calculate P (A|B ) = P P (B ) . Note that A B is the set of events that are common to A and B .

(c) There are 6 cases when the numbers are equal. There are 15 cases where the rst number is greater 15 and 15 cases when the second is greater. So, P rob = 36 . (d) C : {Two dice land on different numbers}. D : { Sum is greater than or equal 5}. Find P (C D) and P (C ) to calculate P (D|C ).