EMPIRIC METHOD FOR PROSPECTING SMALL ENERGY POTENTIALS IN BASINS

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http://pt.scribd.com/doc/170216347/empiric-method-for-prospecting-small-energy-potentials-in-basins

Omar Campos Ferreira 1; Paulo Pereira Martins Junior 2; Vitor Vieira Vasconcelos 3 & Leandro Arb dAbreu Novaes 4
1) Civil Engineer, M.Sc. nuclear sciences and techniques, e-mail: omarecen@pib.com.br 2) Gel., Dr.Sc.T., Prof. Adj. IV UFOP, Researcher, CETEC, Av. Jos Cndido de Oliveira, 2000, 31170-000, Belo Horizonte, e-mail: paulo.martins@cetec.br 3) Tc. Informatics, Tc. Environment, Grad. Philosophy. BIC-CNPQ, CETEC, Av. Jos Cndido de Oliveira, 2000, 31170-000, Belo Horizonte, e-mail: vitor.v.v@gmail.com 4) Grad. Geography, specialist in geographic information systems. CETEC, Av. Jos Cndido de Oliveira, 2000, 31170-000, Belo Horizonte, e-mail: leandro.arb@yahoo.com.br

Paper originally published in Portuguese, at:

FERREIRA, Omar Campos; VASCONCELOS, Vitor Vieira ; MARTINS JUNIOR, Paulo Pereira ; NOVAES, Leandro Arb D'abreu. Mtodo Emprico de Prospeco de Pequenos Potenciais Hdricos. Joo Pessoa - Paraba. Anais do XVI Simpsio Nacional de Recursos Hdricos, 2005.

EMPIRIC METHOD FOR PROSPECTING SMALL ENERGY POTENTIALS IN BASINS MTODO EMPRICO DE PROSPECO DE PEQUENOS POTENCIAIS HDRICOS
Omar Campos Ferreira 1; Paulo Pereira Martins Junior 2; Vitor Vieira Vasconcelos 3 & Leandro Arb dAbreu Novaes 4
Abstract - In this paper the notion of energetic autonomy is the central theme for sustainable development within any watershed under the right conditions. For this purpose, the Horton and Strahler method is applied to the Paracatu Valley. It is a part of a more extensive method for evaluating existing hydrologic potentials for small hydroeletric power plants. The study focuses on this specific simple method for the rapid evaluation of the total available potential below the limit of 100 MW. This is based on the notion of the current evolutionary stage of a watershed. This evolutionary stage may have come to a possible maximum under actual regional tectonic conditions, i.e., the stage of a maximal relationship of uplifting versus erosion/ deposition, within which the basin attains a maximum stability, given all the internal tectonic and structural factors and amidst the external geodynamic factors, i.e. the climatic factor. The results present a good indicator of hydrologic potentials for small power plants in the Paracatu Valley, with which the exceeding dependence on the import of energy may be eventually surpassed. Resumo - Considera-se a noo de autonomia energtica de qualquer bacia hidrogrfica como tema central do processo de desenvolvimento eco-sustentvel. Com este propsito introduz-se um estudo do Vale do Paracatu, utilizando o mtodo de Horton e Strahler e a correlao entre vazo e rea de drenagem para avaliar os potenciais hdricos inferiores a 100 MW para a instalao de pequenas centrais hidroeltricas. O estudo baseia-se na noo de estgio evolutivo de uma bacia hidrogrfica. Esse estgio pode ter chegado ao seu mximo de evoluo possvel para as condies tectnicas regionais, isto , o estgio de mxima relao de soerguimento versus eroso / deposio, no qual o perfil da bacia atinge mxima estabilidade, considerados os fatores tectnicos e estruturais internos e entre os fatores da geodinmica externa o fator climtico. Os resultados so indicadores de um bom potencial para o Paracatu, no qual, por certo a excessiva dependncia de importao de energia poderia ser superada. Palavras-chave: Recursos Hdricos, Bacia Hidrogrfica, Hidroeletricidade Keywords: Water Resources, Hydrographic Basin, Hydroeletricity

1) Civil Engineer, M.Sc. nuclear sciences and techniques, e-mail: omarecen@pib.com.br 2) Gel., Dr.Sc.T., Prof. Adj. IV UFOP, Researcher, CETEC, Av. Jos Cndido de Oliveira, 2000, 31170-000, Belo Horizonte, e-mail: paulo.martins@cetec.br 3) Tc. Informatics, Tc. Environment, Grad. Philosophy. BIC-CNPQ, CETEC, Av. Jos Cndido de Oliveira, 2000, 31170-000, Belo Horizonte, email: vitor.v.v@gmail.com 4) Grad. Geography, specialist in geographic information systems. CETEC, Av. Jos Cndido de Oliveira, 2000, 31170-000, Belo Horizonte, e-mail: leandro.arb@yahoo.com.br

1 EMPIRICAL METHOD FOR PROSPECTING SMALL ENERGY POTENTIALS IN WATER COURSES Making use of the electrical potential of small rivers and streams has received an important stimulus from the Federal Government through its Incentive Program for the use of Alternative Energy Sources (Programa de Incentivo a Fontes Alternativas de Energia PROINFA). This could initiate a new trend for Brazils electrical system development, since it eliminates some of the inconveniences involved in interconnecting great generating basins, such as the high energy loss, and the tension lost in the transmission lines. With this in mind, it is appropriate to develop methods for quickly evaluating potential energy generation below the limit of 70 MW, which was considered in the inventory developed by the consortium CANAMBRA at the beginning of the systems expansion. This issue is part of a project financed by MCT / FINEP / Fundo Setorial CTHidro/2002 entitled Conservation of water resources as concerns environmental management and agriculture at water basins (Conservao de Recurso Hdrico no mbito da Gesto Ambiental e Agrcola de Bacia Hidrogrfica). Objective In comparison with traditional evaluation methods, the objective of this article is to suggest an alternative low-cost method for exploratory evaluations for the existing potential of Brazils principal water basins. The basis of the method is provided by research performed by Yang (1971) about the morphology of hydrographic basins, and the correlation between the drainage area and the water flow. Expressing the empirical laws of [Horton, (1945)] for a basin ordenated according to the criteria of Strahler1 [Figura 2], we have: ln Nu = A B u ln Lu = C D u ln Su = E F u ln Adu = M N u, or: Nu = e (A B u) Lu = e (C D u) Su = e (E F u) Adu = e (M N u) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

In which Nu is the number of current of the order u, Lu is the average current length, Su the average slope and Adu the average drainage area. Table 1 shows, for a case study, the values of the morphological parameters of the Paracatu River Basin (Figura 1), obtained using a cartogrphic scale of 1:100.0002.

The order is set up as follows: Order 1 is the water currents that have not yet flowed into another current; Order 2 is the result of the meeting of this current with another, and so on. The sub-basin with an Order u is the set for all of the currents involved in this order. 2 The parameter survey was elaborated by the Department for Environmental Analysis of the Minas Gerais Technical Center (Setor de Tcnicas de Anlise Ambiental do Centro Tecnolgico de Minas Gerais CETEC).

Figure 1 Detailed map of the Paracatu Valley water courses, available on a scale of 1:100.000 (map is undergoing revision to provide more details) [Martins Jr. et al. (2004)].

Figure 2 Stretch of the Entre Ribeiros and Black River Basins in the Paracatu Valley in which can be seen the water courses classified into diverse orders according to the Strahler method. The orders are represented by color [Martins Jr. et al. (2004)]. Table 1 Morphological parameters of the Paracatu Basin. Order 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Number of Currents Nu 5,439 1,295 285 63 17 6 1 Average Length Lu (m) 2,518 3,699 9,425 23,794 63,176 82,000 363,000 Average Fall Yu (m) 66.9 37.6 55.8 62.4 66.5 40.0 53.0 Average Slope Su 0.0266 0.0102 0.0059 0.0026 0.00105 0.00049 0.00015 Average Drainage Area - Adu (km2) 4.53 6.59 18.02 44.57 127.06 181.83 1270.00

Figure 3 shows the Horton-Strahler relationships.

Paracatu basin - Empirical Laws

15,00 y = 0,8211x + 6,7786 R = 0,9812 10,00
Ad Lu

25

20

ln Nu, Lu, Su

y = -1,4064x + 9,9371 R = 0,9975 0,00 1 2 3 4 5 6

Nu

10 7
Su

8 5

-5,00

y = -0,8333x - 2,75 R = 0,9933

-10,00

Order Figure 3 Empirical laws of Horton-Strahler represented by straight lines. Lu is in pink, Adu in black, Nu in dark blue, and Su in red. To calculate the hydric potential for sub-basins, it is necessary to express the flow rate in terms of morphological parameters and water affluence. Our proposal is to correlate the flow rate with the drainage area, which presents the greatest conceptual compatibility with the flow rate. A long-term survey of this flow rate provides a linear relationship2 between the flow rate and the drainage area [RURALMINAS, (1996)]; see Figure 3. Using the data above, the potential in the sub-basin of Order u is calcalted as follows: Pu = Nu (kAdu) (Su Lu). (9)

In the equation above, the first factor between parentheses represents the product of the massive flow (kg/s) times the gravitational acceleration; whereas the second, represents the average fall of the sub-basin (m). Using the exponential form of of the empiricial laws, gives: Pu = k e (A+C+E+M) e-(B+D+F+N) u (10)

In which, the factor [e (A+C+E+M)] is indendent of the Order u, and as such can be incorporated with the constant k: Pu = k e-(B+D+F+N) u (11)

The linearity of the relationship between the flow rate and the drainage area was also verified for the Doce River. 5

ln Adu m2

5,00

y = 0,914x + 14,062 R = 0,9727

15

River Flow in Paracatu River Basin

500 y = 0,0107x + 6,2288 R = 0,9969 Average flow of long term m3/s 400

300

200

100

0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000

Drainage area, in km2 Figure 4 relationship between the flow rate and drainage area that permits a valid mathematical pattern for the Paracatu Basin. Substituting the parameters: B, D, F and M by the numerical values obtained through the adjusted equations shown in Figure 3, we get: Pu = Ke-(-1.4064+ 0.8211 0.8333+ 0.9140) u = K e0.5046 u (12)

This latter equation allows the relationship between the potentials of the two sub-basins to be calculated for any order; for example, between two basins of consecutive orders. Pu+1/ Pu = e0.5048(u+1) / e0.5048u = e0.5048 = 1.66. (13)

Beginning with the potential for the principal basin, which are generally inventories, the potentials for the other sub-basins can then be calculated as shown in Table 2. Table 2 Distribution of the hydroelectric potential of the Paracatu Basin. Order 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Total Potential - MW 420* 254 153 92 56 34 21 1,030 6 Number of Potential/course courses 1 420 6 42 17 9,0 63 1,5 285 0,19 1295 0,026 5439 0,004 *source - [RURALMINAS, (1996)]

2 HYDROGRAPHIC BASIN PLANNING The focus for hydrographic basin planning has been shown to be sufficiently efficient interritorial environmental management because the basins can be researched as delimited natural systems, where the exchange of material, energy and bio-information are well defined, such as: the surface runoff at the basins outflow, the amounts of hydroelectric energy and rain, the incidence of solar energy, erosion, trade balance and animal/human migration, etc. Another advantage for managing the hydrographic basins is that it permits working through multiple scales, from the great national rivers that cross several states and flow into the ocean to the basins of small creeks that exist in rural properties. These scale differences permit hydrographic basins to be used as zoning limits for the governments great sectorial planning for territories, as well as for the planning of rural production activities on private properties. This is also valid for various scales of hydroelectric potentials. When comparatively studying the hydrographic basins, it is possible to perceive that each one has its own set of characteristics, environmental dynamics and hydroelectric potentials. These characteristics will directly influence the human activities in these hydrographic basins, inclusively defining the feasibility of certain undertakings. This is the case of the mineral availability for the extraction industry, the endowments of the soil for each type of crop, the availability of water to produce electric energy, the availability of water for irrigation, and the relief of the land and soil type being adequate for tractors and agricultural equipment, etc. The environmental characteristics define the manner in which the population will survive within the hydrographic basin, determining indirectly, but crucially, their culture and living style. Extreme examples are populations of a semi-arid basin, another of a rain forest basin (such as in the Amazon) and still another of a basin in an agriculture pioneer front; each of these has its specific type of people living in their area. Therefore, the hydrographic basins need to be examined from their ecological, energetic economic and social points of view, since these four spheres intertwine with each other and are reciprocally connected and limiting. [Martins et al. (2005)]. 3 THE AUTONOMY AND MANAGEMENT OF HYDROGRAPHIC BASINS Discussions with different types of populations have shown how it is strategic for them to defend their autonomy and sustainability so that they can provide for their own needs. This diminishes their dependence on external supplies and avoids exploration by others. A population that is auto-sufficient for their food, energy, water and economic needs is protected against crises and turnabouts that might affect the region or some other expressive part of the world because their needs are taken care of locally. From the ethical and moral point of view, this regional autonomy is important because it defends the dignity of the population, as they need not be submissive to some external group, and as such, they are able to maintain their way of life, their values, their culture, their knowledgeable traditions, not to mention, their right to a secure and good quality of life. It is important to mention that the autonomy of the population does not mean their isolation from the rest of the national or global society, but that they can be successful in developing their socialeconomical projects in a mature manner and that their interaction with others will be on a samelevel basis as partners and not in a dominated-dominator form. Regarding sustainability, it is necessary to plan and take action to secure these rights, not only for the present generation, but also for those to come, which implies that natural resources and ecosystemic potentials must not be destroyed. It also means that intelligent use must be made of all potential energy sources so that the autonomy of the region is protected. The autonomy goals of a country can be extended to each of its basins, guiding their management methods. Given that each hydrographic basic has a unique natural/human system, it is useful to adopt these areas as strategic units for their sustainable development. From the physical7

economical viewpoint, they would then be considered as human production and natural units. In practice, we propose that administrative planning should aim at reaching regional autonomy, as it becomes feasible in 2nd order basins; that is, basins branching from a larger river, as defined by the National Department of Hydrographic Resources (Secretaria Nacional de Recursos Hdricos). This is the reasoning behind which this study aimed to detail all of the hydrographic potentials for the Small Hydroelectric Centers (SHCs) in the Paracatu Valley. The geological location for their most appropriate places, including for the micro-plants is still to be determined. [Martins et al. (2005)]. 4 - CONCLUSES The total hydrographic potential for the Paracatu Basin is around 2.5 times greater than that of its main basin of order 7, which is the Paracatu River, and around 1.5 times the sum of the potentials of the basins with order 7 and 6 (that have been surveyed). If this conclusion could be applied to all of the Brazilian basins, the total potential would be 1.5 x 260GW = 390GW. The use of this generated capacity is limited by other uses for the water, by environmental legislation, and by the cost of its generation, which tends to vary in the inverse sense of it potential, estimated to have an upper limit of 70% of the total, or 273 GW. Nowadays, PROINFA stimulates the use of plants of up to 30 MW (SHCs), whereby ELETROBRS is obliged to acquire the energy generated by these plants for a period of 20 years at a privileged price. In the Paracatu Basin, the potential for SHCs corresponding to its sub-basins is in the order of 4 and 5, totaling 245 MW. Based on the results of this research project, supported by the CT-Hidro /2002 fund, it can be concluded that the hydrographic basins of a size such as the Paracatu Basin should become energetically autonomous. This would permit better usage of waters courses, eventual flood control, better forms of soil conservation and water management in the sense of long-term dams and their energetic potentials that could last for centuries. It also means the eventual diminishing of energy costs, fewer transmission line distances with a resulting economy in the energy normally consumed and liberated by huge generators needed to transmit energy to high-consumer centers. This set of benefits justifies a project for energy autonomy in the Paracatu Valley, which is without doubt a great basin that favors high agricultural production through intensive irrigation projects. REFERENCES: FERREIRA, O. C.; MARTINS Jr., P,P; MOREIRA, C. V. R Aplicao da Termodinmica para a Avaliao do Equilbrio de Redes Fluviais, CETEC, 2002. HORTON, R. E (1945) Erosional development of streams and their drainage basins, Bull. Geol. Soc. Amer. MARTINS Jr., P.P., MARQUES, A.F.S.e M., MOURA, L.C., WERNECK, C., NOVAES, (2004) L.A.dA. Informaes Cartogrficas Padro do Projeto CRHA. Belo Horizonte e Ouro Preto: Fundao CETEC e UFOP-EM-DEGEO. Nota Tcnica NT-CRHA 05/2004. MARTINS Jr., P.P., Vasconcelos, V.V., IUNES, M. A. de O. (2005) - Desenvolvimento Ecosustentvel. Belo Horizonte: Fundao CETEC. Nota Tcnica NT-CRHA 36 / 2005. RURALMINAS (1996) Plano Diretor de Recursos Hdricos da Bacia do Rio Paracatu MMA, SRH, SEAPA-MG, SEMAD, IGAM. YANG, T. C (1971) Potential Energy and Stream Morphology Water Resources Research.