30

GOVERNMENT FORESIGHT: A N INVESTMENT FOR THE FUTURE

By Albert Gore, Jr.

November Planning Review 1985

HE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT is the only entity I know of that thinks it's wise to spend tomorrow's money today to solve the prob lems of yesterday. We end up with the worst of both worldscrisis management for today, and massive federal debts that we'll have to service in the future. What we should be doing is trying to figure out what problems and opportunities lie aheadto bring foresight into the governmental process. I have introduced a bill that would establish an Office of Critical Trends Analysis within the Executive Office of the President. Its mission would be to advise the President, and the country, "of the potential effect of government policies on critical trends and alternative futures." This office wouldn't require the Federal Government to purchase a crystal ball or hire a professional seer to gaze into the future. It would simply provide better information to back up long-range choices. It would do this by detecting early signs of change, identifying possible consequences, developing alter natives, collecting knowledge, and determining what further information is needed to evaluate the pos sibilities. Existing government agencies would be asked to participate in the process. We're in the midst of an extraordinary era. Dramatic technological, social, and economic changes are occurring very rapidly, and issues are becoming increasingly global. In our economy, for instance, cities once insulated from currency fluctuations, tariff schedules, and international trade balances now find their fate shaped by events in Tokyo, London, and Zurich. We know that land fueled the agricultural revo lution and capital fueled the industrial revolution. Now, there's a growing awareness that information is the currency of our present revolution. So far, the Federal Government has been a reluctant participant in this new era. It's not that we aren't doing enough studies or collecting enough information. But all too often we shelve it for today's crises.

I think Congress and the White House can begin to show much more foresight than that. Individuals do. Businesses do. In fact, for about 15 years the American Council of Life Insurance has run a sophisticated Trend Analysis Program to monitor industry-wide futures research. Consider what happens when the Federal Govern ment fails to exercise foresight. For years, the nation lulled itself into thinking that our energy supply would forever be cheap and bountiful, and that energy demands would grow exponentially. Nuclear power was expected to pro tect us from energy shocks. Then, suddenly, oil and gas supplies diminished and the prices of all forms of energy rose dramatically. The demand for electricity dropped and consumers were stunned at having to pay for power plants that were no longer needed. In the midst of this all too predictable crisis, many government actions made things worse. Instead of helping the energy situation, the Federal Government always seemed to be one step behind. We lacked a coherent nuclear regulatory system. We lacked a federal energy policy. We committed $15.3 billion for a synthetic fuels program, then changed our minds. There are endless instances where government foresight would have helped the nation. For instance: Peaks and valleys in school-age populations led to crash school construction programs and then wasteful school abandonments all over the country. These shifts were easily predictable. Even as the nation's massive highway program brought cities closer together, it contributed to urban sprawl and to air pollution. We blithely dumped billions of pounds of chemical wastes into the ground. No one bothered to consider that many people would suffer serious
Albert Gore, Jr., is a United States Senator, D.-Tennessee. For a copy of bill S.1031 write his Washington office.

31
already collecting about future trendsbut are not using. The Office of Critical Trends Analysis would be required to issue a formal report every four years beginning in 1990. The Joint Economic Committee of Congress would issue a similar report every two years beginning in 1989. The office would be bipartisan. It would consist of federal agency heads, members of Congress, and representatives of business, labor, academic insti tutions, and organizations. It would not usurp powers from any federal agency. In fact, I expect it to be a catalyst, encouraging federal offices to share more information with one another. Because now, although agencies do conduct futures research, they rarely coordinate their efforts. Such information entails much more than just focusing on what problems might lie ahead and trying to solve them before they become crises. All too frequently, we seem to miss out on what Yogi Berra used to call, "insurmountable opportunities." Clearly, identifying emerging opportunities is just as important as predicting crises, and the legislation is designed to encourage such efforts. An Office of Critical Trends Analysis could be a boon to business as well. The Federal Government is a prime provider of information to private industry on everything from demographic data and agricultural forecasts to economic statistics. Government informa tion is crucial to private sector decisions on capacity, siting, marketing and production. But business does not regard government information as either timely or accurate. The government needs to improve its performance. "Federal agencies are not collecting as much data as they have in the past, and economists fear that a shortage of reliable, consistent data may result," says Joseph W. Duncan, corporate economist of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation and former chief statistician of the Office of Management and Budget, in a recent Dun's Analysis. He adds that "the nation's statistical system is not in a shamblesat least not yet. What has happened over the past three years, however, should give us serious concern about the nation's longer term capability of keeping up with economic and social change and having the basic information required for sound public and private decision making." The Office of Critical Trends Assessment would be an advocate for the free flow of basic information. It would truly be an investment for the future that would benefit the entire nation today.
Continued on page 42.

I envision [the Office of Critical Trends Analysis] as a coordinator, an instigator, a facilitator for those of us in government and in the public at large who believe that present-day trends deserve more than seat-of-the-pants re actions. I see the office as a mechanism to encourage useful debate among people in the Federal Government as well as in the private sector, focusing our attention beyond immediate concerns, making us better prepared for the future. Senator Albert Gore, Jr., Congressional Record, April 30, 1985 health problems or be forced to relocate when the ground water became predictably contaminated. In Business Week six years ago, Thomas H. Naylor, now director of the Center for Corporate Economics and Strategy at Duke University, wrote: "Our govern ment (and many other governments throughout the world) suffers from the absence of (1) an overall sense of direction, (2) well-defined national goals and objectives, (3) an integrated strategy for achieving such goals and objectives, and (4) a process for answering difficult 'What if?' questions that cut across department lines within the govern ment" Six years later, the situation has not improved. By itself, the Critical Trends Assessment Act that I have introduced in the Senate as S. 1031, and Representatives Newt Gingrich and Buddy MacKay have introduced in the House as H.R. 2690, would not solve such problems or prevent others from occurring. But the office it would create would serve both as an early warning system and as a clearing house for the massive amount of information we're

November Planning Review 1985

42
SENATOR GORE, from page 31.

THE CRITICAL TRENDS ASSESSMENT ACT WHAT IS IT? HOW WOULD IT WORK?

Q: What would the bill do? A: It would create an office that would be respon sible for monitoring long-term trends, examining the alternatives and increasing the awareness of these issues in government and the public at large. Q: Would the office conduct any planning? A: No. Its power would be strictly informative. Q: What's your definition of a trend? A: A trend is a consistent tendency or pattern of behavior created by events over a period of time. Critical social, demographic, political, economic, and technological trends offer clues to what the future might hold. Trends are not predictions of the future since events do change the outlook. But the Critical Trends Assessment Act does create a mechanism for collecting and analyzing a wide variety of data to foster greater awareness of America's future and its relationship with other nations. Q: What types of trends would the office study? A: Here are just a few examples: the continued aging of the U.S. population; the world's food supply; the price and availability of energy; the supply of water in the western U.S.; environmental protection; the cost and availability of health care; training new and old workers for new technologies; and improving educational attainment. November Planning Review 1985 Q: What does this legislation mean to business? A: The Federal Government is a prime provider of information to private industry. In fact, a 1984 survey of thirty of the country's largest corporations, seven trade associations, and eight private infor mation companies found that the Federal Govern ment is the leading provider of resource information to the corporate sector. Q: How would this new office help? A: The Office of Critical Trends Analysis would deal strictly in information, both from governmental and nongovernmental sources. As such, it would be catalyst in getting the Federal Government to think about the future, and an advocate of the free flow of information.