1 QUALITY COURSE LECTURE OUTLINE A THINKING STUDENTS COURSE CONCEPTS IN QUALITY: Evolution of quality Beginning, inspection, preventing defect

ct with SPC, designing quality into product and process Big names in quality: Frederick Taylor 1875 (divide labor into component tasks with work standards industrial eng.), (incentive pay systems what are the effects on quality) Shewhart (1920 process variation and removal of process faults), Dodge and Romig1930 (acceptance sampling) W. Edwards Deming 1950 known for his 14 points showing management how to put quality on institutional basis rather than a departmental basis (also Juran), Taguchi 1980 (robust design) Example of parameter design for grade on test temp humidity interaction factorial design. Example fill bottles of water with cup speed affects variability-cup size affects average], Loss function [example fill volume of coke: one can has 12.1 fl.oz., one can has 11.9 fl.oz., and one can has exactly 12.0 fl.oz.], Dimensions of quality: Performance, Features, Conformance, Reliability, Durability, Service, Response, Aesthetics, Reputation What is a quality automobile? Total Quality Management (TQM): One of several terms used to define a philosophy and principles associated with the continuous improvement of services and manufacturing operations - long term commitment and involvement by management - focus on internal and external customers - effective involvement of entire work force - continuous improvement in all critical processes (a way of life) - partnering with suppliers where mutual trust exist - establishing, tracking, and improving performance measures for critical processes Process: A transformation of inputs to outputs (appropriate for service and manufacturing operations)

Issues in Quality: - who is responsible for quality - who is the customer - who is the supplier - can quality be inspected into the product - how do you know you have good quality - what metrics do you use to measure quality - importance of who, where, when, how, what and why - are customers always right - how do you know if customers are satisfied with your product or service - what does quality cost - does it matter where in the process failures occur Seven Tools of Quality (these are the very basic ones more later): http://www.asq.org/learn-about-quality/seven-basic-qualitytools/overview/overview.html - pareto diagram vital few and useful many: plotted from most frequent events to least frequent events - cause and effect diagram relationships between an effect and its causes: causes are usually broken down into contributions resulting from people, materials, work methods, environment, equipment, and measurements - check sheets used to insure that specific data is collected and documented - process flow diagrams diagram that shows the flow of products through various processing stations including control points - scatter diagrams graphical plot to show the relationship between two variables - histogram graphical plot depicting the spread of data throughout some range - control charts graphical tools used to track parameters of a process real time Simple goal: On target with minimal variation examples (on target, lots of variability), (off target, little variability), WHICH IS BEST?

Normal Distribution
40 30 Mean,Std. dev. 20,0.02 19.98,0.01

density

20 10 0
19.9 19.91 19.92 19.93 19.94 19.95 19.96 19.97 19.98 19.99 20 20.01 20.02 20.03 20.04 20.05 20.06 20.07 20.08 20.09 20.1

Fill

Signal to noise ratio = average/std.dev. ---may see the inverse std.dev./average (called coefficient of variation, relative std. dev., % nonuniformity), Example- run in shallow/deep water with small/large waves. (semiconductor industry), Example response surface for mean and std. dev. - attempt to get on target with minimum variability. If your paycheck each month is off by + $2000, why is that important to you but not important to Mark Cuban (very rich person)? Primary causes of variability materials, machines, methods, man (used for brainstorming problems, designing process controls, experimental designs, etc.). Other causes may be environment, measurement systems, etc. Relationship between design quality versus manufacturing quality. Toy Dump Trucks: Tanka vs Plastic Traditional view of quality what do we mean by quality products what do we mean by improving quality (how do you know) what do we mean by quality product design what do we mean by quality process design Definitions of quality many definitions best (?) the degree to which a product or service satisfies the customers expectations one we often talk about conformance to specifications Concept of specifications (for a given product/service metric)

4 specifications for measurement (continuous random variables) often stated as a nominal value + a tolerance (20 + .1) specifications for count data often stated as NMT (no more than) or LT (less than) essential that we know how our product/service conforms to spec??? Example spec for fill volume of 20 oz. bottle of coke is 20 + .1 What is distribution of fill volume in relation to spec? [show different scenarios] If you measure two bottles resulting in 19.9001 and 19.8999, which one conforms to spec? What if you have some measurement system variability? Are you sure which, if either, conforms to spec? ISO standard available that specifies zone around spec limits which would require additional actions. (show picture)

Taguchis definition of quality loss function: L = k(x T)2 if your goal is to be on target with minimal variability, what values should you set the parameter of the process to in order to achieve this. Example: process (fill 20 oz. bottle of coke), spec (20 + .1), process parameters (speed of production line and temperature of liquid). SHOW RESPONSE SURFACE FOR BOTH SPEED AND TEMPERATURE. Now, what would you recommend the speed and temperature be set at?

Normal Distribution
40 30 20 10 0 Mean,Std. dev. 20,0.02 19.98,0.01

density

Cost of Quality (traditional view) Prevention Costs (keep failure and appraisal costs to a minimum) planning, new product reviews, training, SPC, data analysis, improvement projects Appraisal Costs (to discover the condition of the product) incoming inspection, in-process inspection and testing, maintaining test equipment, cost of products Internal Failure Cost (cost which would disappear if no defects existed prior to shipment) scrap, rework, retest, downtime, yield losses

19.9 19.91 19.92 19.93 19.94 19.95 19.96 19.97 19.98 19.99 20 20.01 20.02 20.03 20.04 20.05 20.06 20.07 20.08 20.09 20.1

Fill

6 External Failure Cost (cost which would disappear if no defects existed after shipment to customer) complaint adjustment, returned material, warranty charges, concessions made to customers

Demings 14 Points: 1. create constancy of purpose for the improvement of produce or service. driven by quarterly reports, management develops strategies to show profits in the short term. Why? Should develop strategy based on long term thinking to insure products, processes, and systems will position company, in the future, to serve the needs of their customers 2. adopt the new philosophy management must be willing to change corporate culture, discard old thinking of allowing some defective products, improvements are only necessary up to some acceptable level of quality, and assume a leadership posture. There exists some optimal level of quality (greater than 0% defectives) that should be strived for. Example- 50% defectives imply spend money to improve, , .0001% (1 in a million) defectives imply you spent too much money and will never recover these costs. YOU TEND TO BECOME SATISFIED WITH THE CURRENT QUALITY LEVEL. 3. cease dependence on mass inspection for quality control abandon defect detection as means of controlling quality emphasize importance of defect prevention like giving aspirin to reduce fever without finding out the cause of the fever goal of production is to get the product out the door versus goal of quality is to insure product going out the door is defect free. Same goal??? Example- [show standard process picture] is money better spent on a more powerful acceptance sampling plan (OC curve) that requires a larger sample size OR spend it on prevention activities? [Show picture of 2 OC curves]

4. end the practice of awarding business on the basis of price tag advantages of several suppliers - compete for business with lowest price allows flexibility in case one supplier cant deliver advantages of single supplier long term partnership trust relationships developed certification programs to reward suppliers who have developed and maintained process control programs with multiyear contracts 5. improve constantly and forever the system of production and service to improve quality and productivity, and thus constantly decrease costs concept of continuous improvement built on four step procedure step 1 recognize the opportunity (how do you do this?)(gap between what your are doing and what you are suppose to be doing from a customer perspective) PLAN step 2 test the theory to achieve the opportunity (experimental designs, data analysis, etc.)(data driven management Malcolm Baldrige core value) (what did you find out, what should you now do to potentially improve the quality)(now do it!) DO step 3 observe the test results ( was the improvement results what you expected?)- CHECK step 4 - act on the opportunity (incorporate changes in standard operating procedures - SOP) ACT where do you go from here? (back to step 1) danger cycle above fails to become an integral part of the culture and you become satisfied with status quo 6. institute more thorough, better job-related training

8 training and education are essential to continuous improvement and the body of knowledge taught must become part of the culture of the company training, without practice afterward, is of limited value employees must understand that the value of this training is real and will become part of the normal day to day activities training just to say your employees have been trained is a waste of money training budgets and lunches are the first to go during short/long term cash flow problems employees must have command of the tools necessary to do their jobs (Example two people asked to put screw into board one with screwdriver/ one without) 7. institute leadership supervisors must be coaches and teachers, not police or dictators praise for doing something right should replace criticism for doing something wrong (what do you do as a supervisor if someone is doing something wrong?) management by objective can lead to negotiated goals far less than the employee is capable of, just to insure employee can meet those objectives. (tends to result in retirement when those objectives are then achieved) 8. drive out fear, so that everyone may work effectively for the company why would fear play a role in quality what can foster fear (operator knows that if they follow the SOP, defective product may result which they will be blamed for) reducing fear requires a major change in philosophy by management 9. break down barriers between departments all activities within the organization must work as a team easy to say difficult to pull off (goes back to culture of organization) eliminating fear (point 8 above) is crucial (if I cooperate with other departments/people, they will know as much as me and I will be less value to the company, receive smaller raises, and damage my career growth) employee performance appraisal systems play a role in this. How? (egos, worked hard but still received marginal review so why try, etc.) 10. eliminate slogans, exhortations, and targets for the work force that ask for zero defects and new levels of productivity good for personal motivation and improved awareness of needs of the organization and will contribute to improvement, but are not a substitute for other improvement tools 11. eliminate work standards on the factory floor place cap (perceived acceptability) on productivity improvement 12. remove the barriers that rob employees at all levels in the company of their right to pride of workmanship supervisors must emphasize the need for quality, not volume use of daily/weekly production performance reports must be abandoned (management often dont know what went on that week that resulted in the

9 performance)(nothing wrong with using productivity as a metric to improve as long as other metrics (quality) take center stage) 13. institute a vigorous program of education and self-improvement people are a resource/asset which can be improved with training/education people must believe that management perceives them as a valuable asset to the company and worth the investment to make them better 14. put everybody in the organization to work to accomplish the transformation transformations require a change in the culture of the organization and will require obtaining new talent, training old talent, continual coaching, use of statistical methods, access to top management, and must be provided with the resources to get the job done. Danger start to slip by forgetting that continuous improvement means continuous. STATISTICAL PROCEDURES: Definitions: Population (or process): collection of all members of a group which you wish to know something about * fill volumes for a production run of cokes * removal torques associated with bottles of eye drops produced Monday * lot of firecrackers you plan to buy * fat content of hamburger meat made from a given type of cow * rates for one night stay in hotels in Dallas * automated welding machine used to weld a step on a trailer * machine that manufactures light bulbs * bottles of a given wine made from this years crop of grapes * super filter used to keep a clean room free of particles over a certain size Parameter: a numerical measure that describes some characteristic of a population * average or mean value (x): average amount of coke in cans of coke, average torque needed to remove a bottle cap, average breaking strength of a weld * standard deviation (x): a measure of variability associated with a numerical population (used to describe the how spread out the numerical values are in that population) has interpretative value * variance (x2): the square of the standard deviation * proportion defective( or p) : the proportion of light bulbs manufactured that dont work * average number of events in a sample unit (): the average number of particles over a certain size in one cubic meter of air in a clean room, the average number of auto accidents in one day on the university campus Sample: a part of a population selected according to some appropriate procedure.

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Statistic A single number calculated from some data Estimators for parameters: Statistics used to estimate (guess) at the value for some population parameter: x-bar, s2, s, Range/d2, sample proportion, etc. Interpretation of standard deviation and what it means: Empirical rule: If data is mounded approximately 68% of data will be within + 1 std deviation of mean, 95% will be within + 2 std deviations of mean, and almost all (99.7%) will be within + 3 std deviations of mean. Chebyshevs theorem: If data is not mounded, at least (1 1/k2)100% of data will be within + k std deviations of mean Tolerance Analysis: A statistical tool that allows you, based on a sample, to make statements such as We are 95% confident that at least 99% of the population is between LTL and UTL. If the data is assumed to be from a normal distribution, these limits are (X-Bar) + k*(sample standard deviation) where the constant k is found in quality literature [Jurans Handbook on Quality or my web site] Descriptive Statistics: histograms plot with excel, Histogram
250 200 150 100 50 0 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5 More Bin

Classroom Example: Assume final grade averages for students taking statistics last semester are normally distributed with mean 75 and standard deviation 6. Use Excel Tools Data Analysis Random Number Generation to simulate 200 grades. Now use Excel Data Analysis Histogram to plot a histogram with cell boundaries (bins) set at 50, 55, 60, , 100. You might play around with the cell boundaries to make you histogram look better. This exercise is a good example of how you can use simulated data [from a known distribution] to see what happens when you use various statistical tools.

Frequency

11

Box and whisker plots (interpretation only most statistical software will have box and whisker plots), examples [display grade distribution of several faculty teaching same course to see if some faculty have more rigorous grading standards, display data collected from day and night shift to see any differences, display data collected over 5 work days to see if all days appear to be similar]

Box-and-Whisker Plot
Dr Baker

Faculty

Dr Karl

Dr Wilson 57 67 77 87 97 107

Grade

Random Number Simulation Homework: [TURN IN NEXT WEEK] 1. Generate 100 random numbers from a normal distribution with mean 20 and standard deviation 0.5 . Plot a histogram of the data. Select your bin ranges (cell boundaries) such that you have a pretty histogram. 2. Generate 100 random numbers from a normal distribution with mean 22 and standard deviation 0.5 . Plot a histogram of the data. Select your bin ranges (cell boundaries) such that you have a pretty histogram. 3. Now combine all the data (200 observations) in problems 1 and 2 above and plot a histogram. 4. Put all 3 histograms on one sheet and turn in. 5. If you data set was that used in 3. above, what would you suspect about the process that generated the data? Events: Something that happens [next baby born at hospital is a boy, firecracker pops, fill volume for can of coke is in spec, employee graduated from a given university, etc.] Probability: We calculate probabilities of events. For example, if you are interested in the event that you make an A in this course, you would want to know what the probability of this event occurring is. Definition: P(A) = ??? where 0 < P(A) < 1.0

12 Some people will display a probability of 0.8 as 80% since most people understand what 80% means better than a probability of 0.8 . Contingency tables: Used extensively for categorical data. Example: A sample of 100 students who took statistics last semester were asked their gender and whether or not they liked statistics, resulting in the following data.
Don't Like Stat (D) 36 13 49 51 49 100 Like Stat (L) Male (M) Female (F) 15 36 51

P(M) = 51/100 = 0.51 P(F) = P(L) = P(D) = P(L/M) = 15/51 = 0.294 P(D/M) = P(L/F) = P(D/F) = P(M/L) = P(F/L) = P(M/D) = P(F/D) = P[L/(M+F)] = Multiplicative law: P(A*B) = P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B/A) = P(B)*P(A/B) P(M*L) = P(M)*P(L/M) = (0.51)*(0.294) = 0.15 OR 15/100 =0.15 P(M*D) = P(L*D) = Additive law: P(A + B) = P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A*B) P(M+L) = P(M) + P(L) P(M*L) = 0.51 + 0.51 0.15 = 0.87 OR (15+36+36)/100 = 0.87 P(M+D) = P(L+D) = Independent events: Two events are independent if the occurrence or nonoccurrence of one event has no effect of the occurrence or non-occurrence of the other event. [Snows in Denver day you take 1st test, Pass 1st test] [Snows in Arlington day you take 1st test, Pass 1st test] [Observe # 2 when you roll a die, Observe an even # when you roll die]

13

Mutually exclusive events: Two events are mutually exclusive if both cannot occur in one experiment. [Snows tomorrow in Denver, Snows tomorrow in Arlington] [Make an A in this course, Make a B in this course] Discrete random variables, discrete probability distribution, examples (binomial, poisson) the number of firecrackers that pop in a sample of 100, the number of students who drop a stat course containing 60 students, the number of scratches on a one square foot piece of window glass, the number of accidents that occur on the UTA campus during a given day. [usually count data] Continuous random variables, continuous probability density function, examples (normal, t-distribution, f-distribution) the fill volume of a can of coke, the time it takes a NASCAR crew to change 4 tires during a race. [usually measurement data] Mathematical expectation: expected value and variance of Y = c1*x1 + c2*x2 + c3*x3 where all xi are independent. Y = c1*x1 + c2*x2 + c3*x3 Y2 = c12*2 x1 + c22*2 x2 + c32*2 x3 Example: A medical company manufactures surgical packs by randomly selecting 3 clamps, 2 needles, and 1 mask from their inventory. If they are interested in the weights (Y) of the surgical packs, what is the mean weight and standard deviation of the weight for the surgical packs manufactured by this company? Assume that clamps have a mean weight of 6 oz and std. dev. of 0.2 oz, needles have a mean weight of 2 oz and std. dev. of 0.1 oz and masks have a mean weight of 4 oz and std. dev. of 0.3 oz. Y = 3*6 + 2*2 + 1*2 = 24 oz Y2 = 9*0.04 + 4*0.01 + 1*0.09 EXPLAIN WHY THIS IS A BAD EXAMPLE!! HOMEWORK: 1. Assume that the distribution of surgical pack weights is normally distributed and draw a picture of this distribution [be sure to show the scale on the X-axis]. Assuming you cannot see inside the surgical packs to detect missing parts, present an argument as to how you can weigh a given surgical pack and detect one missing clamp. 2. Currently, when you check the fill volume for bottles of liquid pain killer, you take the cap off the bottle and pour the contents into a measuring device that can measure the volume within + .001 fl.oz. (in effect you destroy one bottle of product each time you do this). Since you get a big bonus for suggestions that

14 result in cost savings, you find out that the actual volume of pain killer in a bottle can be calculated from the weight of the pain killer in that bottle (something you remembered from chemistry). So, if you could just weigh the bottle of pain killer without taking the cap off, you would be able to save thousands of units of product each year. A bottle of pain killer is comprised of a glass bottle, a cap, and the actual pain killer inside the bottle. Therefore the weight of a bottle of pain killer (WB) is given by WB = WGB + WC + WPK where WGB ,WC , and WPK are the weights of the glass bottle, cap, and pain killer respectively. Before todays production run, you go out to the warehouse where they store component parts and estimate the mean and standard deviation of the weight of the glass bottles to be 5.00 and 0.10 grams and the mean and standard deviation of the caps to be 0.40 and .02 grams from a very large sample of glass bottles and caps. After todays production run, you take a very large sample of bottles of pain killer (complete units containing a bottle, cap, and the pain killer) and estimate the mean weight and standard deviation to be 20.00 and .50 grams. a. Based on the information above, estimate the mean and standard deviation of the weight of the pain killer in each bottle. Normal Distribution: normal density function (parameters), calculate probabilities, relationship between normal density function and z scores (standard normal distribution), targeting mean of normal distribution PROBLEMS: 1. The time it takes a Nascar crew to change all 4 tires during a race is known to be normally distributed with a mean of 12 seconds and standard deviation of 0.8 seconds. a. Draw a picture of this normal distribution [be sure to label the X-axis]. b. What is the probability they take longer than 13 seconds to change all 4 tires? c. What is the probability they take less than 13 seconds to change all 4 tires? d. What is the probability they take exactly 13 seconds to change all 4 tires? e. If they are currently leading the race by 12 seconds over the second place car and the crew chief decides to have a pit stop and change all 4 tires, what is the probability they are still leading the race after the pit stop? f. If the crew chief want to reduce the mean time to change the tires such that they have a 97.%% probability of changing all 4 tires in less than 13 seconds, what would their target value for the mean be?

15

HOMEWORK: 2. The amount of active ingredient in a blood pressure pill is known to be approximately normally distributed with mean 20 mg. and standard deviation 0.3 mg. a. Draw a picture of this normal distribution [be sure to label the X-axis]. b. Doctors discover that patients develop a rash if the blood pressure pill has more than 20.6 mg. of active ingredient. What is the probability that the pill you take today has more than 20.6 mg. and you develop a rash? c. If 100 people in Arlington took this pill today, what is the probability that none develop a rash? How many of these 100 people would you have expected to develop a rash? d. The pills are known to be ineffective if they have less than 18 mg. of active ingredient, but are quite effective as long as they have at least 18 mg. What is the probability that a randomly selected pill has less than 18 mg. of active ingredient? e. With so many patients developing rashes from taking these pills, the company puts you in charge of fixing this problem. After forming a process improvement team, the first suggestion is to change the process and target a mean less than the current 20 mg. The entire team is aware that the cost of the active ingredient is very high and the more pills manufactured [for a given volume of active ingredient] means more profit for the company. What would you suggest for a new target mean? Draw a picture to show what you are recommending here.

Sampling distribution of x-bar: large sample, small sample, (population normal/not normal), central limit theorem 1. A production line filling bottles of liquid pain killer is known to target the mean fill at 12.132 fl.oz. Capability studies have indicated that the standard deviation of fill is fairly constant and equal to 0.044. The goddess of statistics tells us that, for todays production run of 200,000 bottles, the true mean fill is, in fact, 12.132 and standard deviation is, if fact, 0.044 . If you were to randomly sample 121 bottles and measure the fill for each bottle, what is the sampling distribution of the sample mean? Assuming a normal distribution for the fill volume, draw a picture, on the same graph, of the fill volume of individual bottles and the sampling distribution of sample means you calculated above. Show a scale on the x-axis so I will know you drew the correct distributions. HOMEWORK: Fill volumes of Koke are known to have a mean of 2.00 liters with standard deviation of 0.10 liters. If you take a random sample of 25 Kokes, a. what is the sampling distribution of the sample mean? List any assumptions you make.

16 b. Draw a picture of the distribution of fill volume and the sampling distribution of the sample mean on the same graph. Tests for normality assumption: When you use a statistical tool that assumes the data came from a normal distribution, you should test for normality by using a normal probability plot, histogram, chi-square test, etc. SINGLE MEAN PROBLEMS: Hypothesis test (single mean large sample) steps to conduct hypothesis test. For large sample problems, you may use the z-statistic, especially when working by hand. However, most statistical packages will automatically use the t-statistic regardless of the sample size since most problems estimate the population standard deviation from the data. NOTE: the t-statistic is approximately equal to the z-statistic when the degrees of freedom for the t-statistic is large. Specify null/alternative hypothesis Specify level of significance () (meaning) assume null is true define sampling distribution for test statistic (assumptions) identify rejection region based on calculate value for test statistic from data (unstandardized and standardized) compare sample value for test statistic to determine whether or not it is in the rejection region (reject null hypothesis or fail to reject hull hypothesis) write managerial summary calculate p-value SKETCH POWER CURVE FOR TEST (WHY?) discuss type I errors ( risk/producter risk) and type II errors ( risk/consumer risk) What is a 95% confidence interval estimate for mean What are tolerance limits?

Go to SINGLE MEAN LECTURE on web site: Discuss sampling distribution of sample mean, SINGLE MEAN LECTURE TAB, SINGLE MEAN PRACTICE TAB, HOMEWORK : DUE NEXT WEEK - SINGLE MEAN 1. Have you ever had trouble taking the cap off of a new bottle of eye drops (or any new product)? During the manufacturing process, the equipment is initially set up, before each production run, to apply a specified torque to the caps. This is important because if the cap is too loose, it might be possible that leaks occur causing a loss of

17 sterility and if the cap is too tight, consumers, old like your professor, would not be able to remove the cap and refuse to buy your product again. In order to insure that the equipment is set up properly each morning, you decide to randomly sample 100 bottles during the first 30 minutes of production and check to see if the average torque is on target. The target for the application torque is 50 ft-lbs. Consumer research has found that old professors can still remove the cap as long as the torque is less than 90 ft-lbs and bottles will not leak as long as the torque is greater than 10 ftlbs. The sample of 100 bottles resulted in the following:
BOTTLE 1 2 100 SAMPLE MEAN SAMPLE STANDARD DEVIATION TORQUE 89 111 93 60 9

a. Test the hypothesis that the mean torque is equal to 50 against the alternative hypothesis that the mean torque is not equal to 50 at a 5% level of significance. You may assume that torque data is approximately normally distributed. b. What will you tell your manager about todays torque set-up? c. For the previous hypothesis test, sketch the power curve d. Your boss is charged with recommending process improvements resulting in cost savings but at the same time continue to produce quality products. In your opinion, what is the largest average torque you would consider acceptable? Give reason. 2. A similar product, packaged in the same bottles and using the same equipment as in the previous problem, has a FDA requirement that the average torque be 50 ft-lbs, but no larger than 55 ft-lbs and no smaller than 45 ft-lbs. If it is larger than 55 or smaller than 45, you get in a lot of trouble. How large a sample would you recommend we take to test the hypothesis and stay out of trouble. Make whatever assumptions you wish to answer this problem (just write them down). 3. Additional homework problems can be found on TAB: SINGLE MEAN HOMEWORK. Working these problems will help you understand the what the power curve represents. IN CLASS EXERCISE (WITH COMPUTERS) 1. Go to SINGLE MEAN LECTURE on web site and SAVE that Excel file to desk top, open desk top Excel file, tab to TWO TAIL SIM FOR POWER CURVE and do the following. 2. Simulate 50 random numbers from a normal distribution with mean 20 and standard deviation 6 [be sure to locate them in the appropriate cells]. Test the hypothesis that the true mean is equal to 20 at alpha of 0.05. Did you reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis? Sketch the power curve. 3. For the power curve you sketched, determine the value for the true mean (either the LCV or UCV value) where you have a 50% probability of rejecting the hypothesis. Now simulate another 50 random numbers from a normal distribution with mean UCV (or LCV) and standard deviation 6 [ be sure to locate them in the appropriate cells]. Did you reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis?????

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Hypothesis test (single mean small sample) steps to conduct hypothesis test. In this case we would use the t statistic with degrees of freedom equal to n-1, BUT we also must be able to assume that the data comes from a normal population. Specify null/alternative hypothesis Specify level of significance () (meaning) assume null is true define sampling distribution for test statistic (assumptions) identify rejection region based on calculate value for test statistic from data (unstandardized and standardized) compare sample value for test statistic to determine whether or not it is in the rejection region (reject null hypothesis or fail to reject hull hypothesis) write managerial summary calculate p-value what is a 95% confidence interval estimate for mean. TWO POPULATION PROBLEMS (Diff in Variances and Diff in Means): Hypothesis test (difference in two variances): This hypothesis test is needed before you conduct the difference in means hypothesis tests below. Used to test hypothesis that the variances of two populations are equal. EXERCISE: In Excel simulate two columns of 11 data points each from a normal distribution with mean 20 and standard deviation 6. [Use Random Seed: 12345] Calculate the sample variances for both samples. In this case the ratio of the true variances is 1. By hand, test the hypothesis that the two population variances are equal with alpha of 0.05. Specify null/alternative hypothesis Specify level of significance () (meaning)

assume null is true define sampling distribution for test statistic (assumptions)

19 identify rejection region based on calculate value for test statistic from data

compare sample value for test statistic to determine whether or not it is in the rejection region (reject null hypothesis or fail to reject hull hypothesis)

write managerial summary

calculate p-value

EXERCISE: Use the data simulated above to conduct the following hypothesis test. 1. In Data Analysis use the F-Test Two-Sample for Variances module to test hypothesis that the two variances are equal at alpha 0.05 [NOTE: The alpha you input for this module is for one tail only. Therefore input 0.025 for alpha for the one tail so that both tails would total 0.05]. Did you reject or fail to reject your hypothesis? What is the p-value for your test? Compare to your hand calculations above. 2. Test hypothesis that the two means are equal (or difference in means is equal to 0) at alpha 0.05. Your choice of which t-Test to use depends on whether of not you can assume that the variances are equal or not equal. Conduct hypothesis test (difference in two means small/large samples): Use t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances or t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances in data analysis. When sample sizes are small, we would use the t statistic with degrees of freedom equal to n1+n2-2, IF we are able to assume the variances of the two populations are equal, BUT we also must be able to assume that the data comes from a normal population. For cases where the variances are not equal, it is still appropriate to use the t-statistic, BUT the degrees of freedom will be something other than n1-n2-2 (formula for degrees of freedom in this case can be found in most statistics texts)
S1 15.60 S2 21.29 F-Test Two-Sample for Variances Variabl e1

Variable 2

20
24.78 14.46 25.93 27.27 19.34 21.89 16.70 22.65 24.96 17.06 22.73 23.40 14.16 23.40 19.27 22.53 18.94 17.06 12.97 16.03 Mean Variance Observations df F P(F<=f) one-tail F Critical one-tail 20.97 20.59 11 10 1.45 0.28 3.72 19.25 14.20 11 10

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances Variabl Variable e1 2 Mean 20.97 19.25 Variance 20.59 14.20 Observations 11 11 Pooled Variance 17.40 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 df 20 t Stat 0.97 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.17 t Critical one-tail 1.72 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.35 t Critical two-tail 2.09 t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances Variabl Variable e1 2 Mean 20.97 19.25 Variance 20.59 14.20 Observations 11 11 Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 df 19 t Stat 0.97 P(T<=t) one-tail 0.17 t Critical one-tail 1.73 P(T<=t) two-tail 0.35 t Critical two-tail 2.09

Most statistical packages will use the t-statistic for this problem, but when working large sample problems by hand, you may use the z-statistic since the t-statistic and the zstatistic will be approximately equal when the degrees of freedom for the t-statistic is large. Specify null/alternative hypothesis Specify level of significance () (meaning)

21

assume null is true define sampling distribution for test statistic (assumptions) (std devs equal/unequal)

identify rejection region based on

calculate value for test statistic from data (unstandardized and standardized)

compare sample value for test statistic to determine whether or not it is in the rejection region (reject null hypothesis or fail to reject hull hypothesis)

22

write managerial summary

calculate p-value

23

Homework 1. In Excel, simulate two columns of 100 data points each from a normal distribution with mean 20 and standard deviation 6. [USE Random Seed = 12345] In this case the true difference in means is zero [20-20]. In Data Analysis use the tTest: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances module to test hypothesis that the two means are equal at alpha 0.05. Did you reject or fail to reject your hypothesis? What is the p-value for your test? 2. Now simulate 100 data points [USE some Random Seed other than 12345 or leave blank] from a normal distribution with mean 21.7 and standard deviation 6 and replace ONE of the columns of data you generated above. In this case the true difference in means is 1.7 [21.7-20]. In Data Analysis use the t-Test: TwoSample Assuming Equal Variances module to test hypothesis that the two means are equal at alpha 0.05. Did you reject or fail to reject your hypothesis? What is the p-value for your test? 3. Based on what happened, could we roughly sketch a power curve? We will answer this in class after everyone comes to class with the answers to 1 and 2 above.

HOMEWORK: Due next class. 1. Generate 2 samples of size 100 each from a normal distribution with mean 30 and standard deviation 2 (2 columns of data). From this data a. Test hypothesis that the variances are equal at alpha of 0.05 b. Test hypothesis that the means are equal at alpha of 0.05 2. Now replace the 2nd column of data with simulated data from a normal distribution whose mean is 31.79 and standard deviation 2. Repeat the two hypothesis test above. 3. Now replace the 2nd column of data with simulated data from a normal distribution whose mean is 30 and standard deviation 9. Repeat the two hypothesis tests above. One Way/Two Way Analysis of Variance (Hypothesis test for equality of multiple means) Use Excel Data Analysis Anova: Single Factor/Two Factor Test hypothesis that the mean weld strength for the 4 welders are equal. What is the test statistic? What value will you use for the level of significance? What is the p-value? Should you reject hypothesis that the means are equal? EXERCISE: Go to DOE Seal Data on web (tab WORKSHEET) and do a one way analysis of variance to test hypothesis that the mean seal strength is equal for the seven seal locations (Seal 1, Seal 2, Seal 7)

24

REVIEW QUESTIONS: 1. Discuss the brief history of how quality has evolved over the last 100 years? 2. What did Taylor, Shewhart, Dodge, Deming, and Taguchi do to gain fame? 3. What does on target with minimal variability mean? Show examples with pictures. 4. Identify the 4 primary causes of variability. 5. Define attribute acceptance sampling by providing an example. 6. Considering Demings 14 points, which three do you consider most valuable (and why)? Which point do you consider least valuable (and why)? 7. Provide several definitions of quality. Which do you prefer and why? 8. What does a spec 20 + 3 imply? 9. If the fill volume of koke is normally distributed with an average of 21 and standard deviation of 0.5, draw this distribution and show the spec above on your graph. 10. What is Taguchis loss function and how does it allow you to compare several different distributions to determine which distribution is best? 11. What are the 4 major quality cost categories and give an example of each. 12. What are the seven tools of quality? Give examples for those tools covered so far in class. 13. Define a random variable, population, parameter, sample, and statistic with your own example. [i.e. like x = time for you to drive home] 14. Calculate by hand, the sample mean, sample variance, and sample standard deviation for a small sample. [i.e. (2, 4, 8)] 15. Given a mean (12) and standard deviation (2), interpret what they mean using the empirical rule and Tchebycheffs theorem. 16. Be able to construct a histogram for a given set of data (sorted from smallest to largest), interpret this histogram, and guess as to whether or not this data comes form a normal distribution. 17. Use the multiplicative and additive law of probability for events that are independent, not independent, mutually exclusive, or not mutually exclusive. 18. From a contingency table, be able to calculate various probabilities. 19. Distinguish between a discrete random variable and a continuous random variable. 20. Give an example of a discrete probability distribution. 21. Determine the mean and standard deviation for a linear combination of independent random variables, each with known mean and standard deviation. 22. Use either the binomial formula or the binomial tables to calculate binomial probabilities. 23. Use the normal tables to calculate normal probabilities. 24. For large samples from a population with known mean and standard deviation, determine the sampling distribution of the sample mean. 25. Conduct a two tailed single mean hypothesis test for a large sample (x-bar and s provided), determine the p-value, sketch the power curve, and calculate a 95% confidence interval estimate for the population mean. 26. Conduct a two tailed single mean hypothesis test for a small sample (data only provided). 27. Interpret the excel output for a hypothesis test for equality of two population variances, for the difference in two population means assuming equal variances, and for the difference in two population means assuming unequal variances, and which one to use based on the results of the hypothesis test for equality of two variances.

CONTROL CHARTS:

25 1. How to set up x-bar/R control charts to determine statistical stability 2. How to interpret patterns reflected in x-bar and R charts to determine out of control conditions 3. Understanding the conceptual reason x-bar and R charts work 4. Use Excel to simulate out of control conditions to see effect on x-bar and R control charts 5. What is a rational subgroup? 6. What variability should a rational subgroup capture? [common, assignable] 7. How large should the sample be and how frequent should it be taken? 8. What is an example of stratification? 8. For stable process, calculate and interpret capability indices Cp/Cpk and standard deviation. 9. What does the expression over control of the process imply? 10. Set up and interpret individual control charts based on moving range. 11. Define defect, defective, number of defectives, number of defects, and fraction defective 12. Understand the binomial distribution and poisson distribution 13. Set up p-chart, determine statistical stability, and understand conditions needed to use. 14. Set up c-chart and determine statistical stability 15. When do you use p-charts or c-charts? 16. What are the three primary categories of variation associated with a part during production (within piece, piece to piece, time to time) 17. What are the major causes of variation present in a process (equipment, material, environment, operator) 18. What is the difference in chance/common causes and assignable causes of variation 19. What allows you to delete some samples from your x-bar/R chart analysis 20. What would cause you to revise your control charts 21. What are Type I and Type II errors as they pertain to control charts 22. Be able to reflect what would happen to X-bar/R charts when the mean and/or the variability change. Problems: 1. For the following data collected for an x-bar and R chart a. calculate control chart limits and plot on the graphs. b. If appropriate, calculate Cp and Cpk for specification 6 + .4 c. What do you think is going on with the process? Be specific.

26

SAMPLE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

5.901 5.888 5.955 6.118 6.240 6.181 6.059 5.903 5.952 6.028 5.946 5.949 6.003 6.091 6.125 5.865 5.949 5.958 6.007 5.889 6.238 6.454 6.336 5.830 5.873

DATA 6.118 5.928 5.924 6.055 5.918 5.867 5.926 5.943 6.072 5.909 6.097 5.972 5.885 6.231 6.003 5.875 5.944 5.958 6.107 6.080 5.920 6.081 6.142 5.806 6.199 5.904 5.916 6.058 6.019 5.912 5.923 5.944 5.952 5.932 6.072 5.738 6.106 5.948 6.060 5.989 6.165 6.273 6.370 6.215 6.201 6.457 6.035 6.138 5.985 6.130

X-BAR RANGE 5.842 5.947 0.276 5.967 5.958 0.167 5.871 5.903 0.088 6.076 6.016 0.193 5.934 6.039 0.331 5.926 0.255 6.001 6.044 0.346 6.195 5.994 0.320 6.140 5.999 0.196 6.015 6.058 0.092 5.998 5.986 0.161 6.178 6.019 0.372 6.016 6.031 0.296 5.960 6.006 0.175 6.125 6.045 0.213 5.981 5.928 0.117 5.965 5.949 0.033 6.001 5.942 0.334 5.938 6.000 0.168 5.846 5.946 0.214 6.323 6.250 0.158 6.218 6.314 0.239 6.326 6.330 0.255 6.035 6.010 0.309 6.003 5.998 0.258 X-BarBar = 6.030 R-BAR =0.223

X-Bar Chart
6.400 X-bar 6.200 6.000 5.800 5.600 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Sample

R Chart
0.400 Range 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Sample

27 2. For the following data collected for an x-bar and R chart a. calculate control chart limits and plot on the graphs. b. If appropriate, calculate Cp and Cpk for specification 6 + .4 c. What do you think is going on with the process? Be specific.

28

SAMPLE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

5.901 5.888 5.955 6.118 6.240 6.181 6.059 5.903 5.952 6.028 5.946 5.949 6.003 6.091 6.125 5.865 5.949 5.958 6.007 5.889 6.042 5.888 5.926 5.934 6.069

DATA 6.118 5.928 5.924 6.055 5.918 5.867 5.926 5.943 6.072 5.909 6.097 5.972 5.885 6.231 6.003 5.875 5.944 5.958 6.107 6.080 5.920 6.081 6.142 5.806 6.199 5.904 5.916 6.058 6.019 5.912 5.923 5.944 5.952 5.932 6.072 5.738 6.106 5.948 6.060 5.989 5.952 5.926 5.842 6.101 6.074 5.733 6.126 6.106 5.918 5.969

X-BAR RANGE 5.842 5.947 0.276 5.967 5.958 0.167 5.871 5.903 0.088 6.076 6.016 0.193 5.934 6.039 0.331 5.926 0.255 6.001 6.044 0.346 6.195 5.994 0.320 6.140 5.999 0.196 6.015 6.058 0.092 5.998 5.986 0.161 6.178 6.019 0.372 6.016 6.031 0.296 5.960 6.006 0.175 6.125 6.045 0.213 5.981 5.928 0.117 5.965 5.949 0.033 6.001 5.942 0.334 5.938 6.000 0.168 5.846 5.946 0.214 6.075 5.999 0.149 6.020 5.963 0.259 5.947 5.920 0.340 6.007 6.043 0.193 5.777 5.933 0.291 X-BarBar = 5.988 R-BAR =0.223

X-Bar Chart
6.100 6.050 6.000 5.950 5.900 5.850 5.800 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Sample

X-bar

R Chart
0.400 Range 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Sample

3. If a process is determined to be stable with an x-bar-bar equal to 6.4 and R-bar equal to .12 , draw a picture of this process. (you may assume it is normal). Show

29 enough detail to convince me that you know what the process actually looks like. Assume the sample size (n) is 4. 4. Given specifications 20 + 1 and a process that is stable, draw a picture of a process that would have a Cp = 2 and a Cpk = 1. Show enough detail to convince me that you know what you are doing. 5. If the weight of men is normally distributed with mean 160 and standard deviation 20 pounds and the weight of women is normally distributed with mean 120 and standard deviation 15 pounds, what would the the mean weight and standard deviation of the weight of a randomly selected couple (1 man and 1 woman) be. Assume that men and women do not marry each other based on weight. 6. In you own words, what is meant by a process being in statistical control for the following examples. a. fill volume for cans of coke b. proportion of defective TV picture tubes manufactured in lots of 200. 7. Assume that you collected data, calculated control chart limits for you x-bar and range charts, and determined that your process was in a state of statistical control. You had acceptable capability, and you were now going to use these control charts to monitor future production. (the actual numbers do not matter in this problem). a. show a pattern of data you would expect for the next 10 samples assuming the process were still in control. X-BAR
UCL

LCL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

RANGE

UCL

LCL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

30

b. show a pattern of data you would expect for the next 10 samples assuming the process variability were to increase substantially at sample number 3.

X-BAR

UCL

LCL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

RANGE

UCL

LCL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

c. show a pattern of data you would expect for the next 10 samples assuming the process variability were to substantially decrease at sample number 5. X-BAR
UCL

31
LCL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

RANGE

UCL

LCL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

d. show a pattern of data you would expect for the next 10 samples assuming the process mean were to slightly increase at sample number 5 to a value half way between the center line and UCL for the x-bar chart.. X-BAR
UCL

LCL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

RANGE

UCL

LCL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

32

ACCEPTANCE SAMPLING: 1. Understand concept of attribute acceptance sampling (single, double, and multiple) and how it is used within the context of Z 1.4 Sampling Procedures and Tables for Inspection by Attributes. 2. Be able to use Z 1.4 to select an appropriate acceptance sampling plan. 3. Understand what the operating characteristic curve is and how it can be used to select an acceptance sampling plan that satisfies your risk levels. 4. Be able to sketch an operating characteristic curve for a given single sampling plan. 5. Understand AQL, RQL, ASN 6. Understand the role acceptance sampling plays in the quality process. 7. Dangers associated with acceptance sampling does this affect quality, improve quality, insure quality products delivered to customer? How does acceptance sampling relate to process controls (SPC)? When is 100% inspection useful or dangerous (is it perfect count letter e on this page) 8. Be able to sketch the OC curves for several different sampling plans in order to compare the relative powers of each plan. ACCEPTANCE SAMPLING PRACTICE PROBLEMS. 1. Specific Motors Corp. has a new supplier for spark plugs and is concerned about the incoming quality. They purchase spark plugs in lots of 100,000 at a time and want to use Z 1.4 to determine an acceptance sampling plan. Corporate officers has agreed on an AQL value of 0.1% defectives and the use of general inspection level II. a. Determine the acceptance sampling plan you would recommend using Z 1.4 as a guideline. b. Sketch the operating characteristic curve. c. What is the value for the RQL (LQ or LTPD) for this sampling plan. (assume = 0.10) d. If the incoming quality is actually 0.539% defective, what is the probability that your acceptance sampling plan accepts the lot? e. After a lot was accepted, many Specific Motors cars appeared to not run very good and it was determined that the cause was defective spark plugs. After an extensive study, it was determined that the actual percent defective was in fact 0.53% defective (much larger that the AQL of 0.1% defective). In order to protect yourself from taking the risk of accepting this level of quality in the future, what sampling plan would you suggest they switch to and why? 2. For a given AQL of 1% defective and general inspection level II, explain the logic associated with the continual increase in sample size (or sample size code letter) associated with larger batch sizes. Show several OC curves showing this effect.

33 3. Z 1.4 is an acceptance sampling scheme. Explain the reasoning behind the switching rules associated with normal, tightened, and reduced inspection. 4. Z 1.4 also includes, in additions to single sampling plans, double and multiple sampling plans. Explain the advantage of using double or multiple sampling plans over single sampling plans for a given AQL. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN PRESENTATION: 1. Understand the role Design of Experiments plays in process improvement. 2. Understand terminology used in DOE: replication, randomization, confounding, interactions, response surfaces, treatment combinations, factors, blocking, fixed effects models, random effects models, resolution of a design. 3. Be able to set up a factorial (2k) design, collect data, analyze data, fit model, determine optimal levels of process factors to hit target and minimize variability, and make managerial decisions. 4. Understand standard experimental designs use for screening experiments and response surface modeling. MEASUREMENT SYSTEMS STUDIES: 1. Understand the role measurement systems play in variability. 2. Be able to design a measurement system study, collect data, analyze data, and determine the variation associated with a measurement system.