Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

CHAPTER-2 POPULATION AND WATER DEMAND 2.1. PRESENT POPULATION

The development of a particular city, town or a region depends upon natural, physical and socio-economic factors. Among these factors the population assumes significance in determining the future pattern of progress and development. Sikkim underwent many changes in its economy and demography after it joined the national mainstream. There was considerable increase in developmental activities, which caused a growth in urbanization. The population of Sikkim was slightly higher than 5, 40,000 in 2001 as against 4, 06,000 in 1991. Sex ratio of Sikkim was much lower (875 females) than the national average (933 females).Population changes from 1951 to 2001 show a growth of 3.9 times in Sikkim. Table 2.1: Demographic Profile of Sikkim ` Census Year 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Total Population 1,37,725 1,62,189 2,09,843 3,16,385 4,06,457 5,40,851 Rural Population 1,34,981 1,55,341 1,90,175 2,64,301 3,69,473 4,80,981 Urban Population 2,744 6,848 19,668 51,084 37,006 59,870

Source: District Census Handbook 1951, 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991 and Primary Census Abstract 2001,Census of India.

Gangtok, the capital city of Sikkim is located in the East District and lies between 27 21 to 27 16 N latitude and 88 37 longitude with an altitude of 5500 ft above mean sea level. Gangtok is connected by National Highway (31-A) to Siliguri, which is a major town in the North of West Bengal. The nearest airport and railhead near Siliguri is 117 kms from Gangtok. The total area of Gangtok covered under this project is around 2112.11 hectare. This area falls under the following revenue blocks Penlong, Burtuk, Sichey, Chandmari, Rongyek, Gangtok (includes Rajbhavan), Tathangchen, Tadong, Syari and Samdur. This report is prepared considering the population of Gangtok in 2001 as 82149. The ward wise a breakup of population of the project area is given in Table 2.2.This excludes the tourist population.

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Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

Table 2.2: Ward wise Population (2001) of the Project Area Wards Penlong Burtuk Sichey Chandmari Rongyek Tathangchen Tadong Syari Samdur Gangtok Total Population (2001) 1553 4188 7352 2744 1114 2308 19599 3015 4902 35374 82149 Area (In Hectare) 72.5 254.38 321.57 69.17 37.63 139.29 292.23 475.57 102.54 347.23 2112.11

The historical growth rate has been derived based on the past decadal population of Gangtok given in Table 2.3 as per Census figures. Table 2.3 Population of Gangtok as per 1961, 1971, 81, 91, & 2001 Census Year 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Population 6848 13308 36747 58242 82149

. The Population forecast of Gangtok Project Area has been arrived at based on the methods laid down in the Manual on Water Supply and Treatment published by the Ministry of Urban Development, Govt. of India. 2.2. POPULATION FORECAST

The design population is estimated with due regard to all factors governing the future growth and development of the project area in the industrial, commercial, educational, social and administrative spheres. Special factors causing sudden emigration or influx of population should also be foreseen to the extent possible.

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Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

The population for Gangtok has been estimated on the basis of following methods as given in the CPHEEO Manual: a) b) c) d) e) a) Arithmetical progression method Incremental increase method State urban increase method Geometrical increase method Graphical method Arithmetical Progression Method: Year Population Increase (X) 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Total Average Population in 2010 = = = = Population in 2025 = = = = Population in 2040 = = = = 6848 13308 36747 58242 82149 6460 23439 21495 23907 75301 18825

Population In 2001 + increase for 0.9 decades 82149+ (0.9 x 18825) 82149 + 16943 99092 Population In 2001 + increase for 2.4 decades 82149+ (2.4x18825) 82149 + 45181 127330 Population In 2001 + increase for 3.9 decades 82149+ (3.9 x 18825) 82149+ 73418 155567

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Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

b)

Incremental Increase Method: Year Population Increase (X) 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Total Average 6848 13308 36747 58242 82149 6460 23439 21495 23907 75301 18825 16979 -1944 2412 17447 5816 Incremental Increase(Y)

Population in 2010

= Population in 2001+0.9x18825+0.9(1+0.9)/2x5816 = = 82149+ 0.9x18825+ 0.9(1+0.9)/2x 5816 104064

Population in 2025

= 82149+ 0.9x18825+ 0.9(1+0.9)/2x 5816 = 151058 = = 82149+ 3.9 x 18825 + 3.9(1+3.9)/2 x 5816 211136

Population in 2040

c)

Geometrical Increase Method: Rate of growth per decade between 1971 and 1961 1981 and 1971 1991 and 1981 2001 and 1991 0.943 1.761 0.585 0.410

Geometric mean, rg = (0.943 x 1.761 x 0.585 x 0.410)1/4 = 0.79 Population in 2010 = = = = Population in 2001 x (1+rg)0.9 82149 x (1+0.79).9 82149 x 1.6928 139060

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Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

Population in 2025

= = =

82149 (1+0.79)2.4 82149 x 4.07 334353 82149 (1+0.79)3.9 82149 x 9.786 803911

Population in 2040

= = =

d)

State Urban Average Method:

Average Percentage Increase per decade (uavg) = (94.33 + 176.13 + 58.49 + 41.05)/ 4 = 68.92 Population in 2010 = = = Population in 2025 = = Population in 2040 = = e) Population in 2001 + (Population in 2001 x uavg x 0.9)/ 100 82149 + (82149 x 68.92 x 0.9)/100 133102 82149 + (82149 x 68.92 x 2.4)/100 218025 82149 + (82149 x 68.92 x 3.9)/100 302947

Graphical Method : = = = 1,10,000 1,50,000 1,90,000

Population in 2010 Population in 2025 Population in 2040

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Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

Figure: 2.1 Population Projections by Graphical Method

The summary of the population forecast is tabulated in Table 2.4 Table 2.4: Population forecast for project area by various methods Airthematic Progression Method 99092 127330 155567 Incremental Increase Method 104064 151058 211136 Geometric Increase Method 139060 334353 803911 State Urban Average Method 133102 218025 302947 Graphical Method 110000 150000 190000

Year 2010 2025 2040

It is evident from the table that the population forecast by Arithmetic Increase Method is lowest. The Graphical Method is around average of all the four methods except Geometrical Increase Method, while the higher values obtained from geometrical increase method may be attributed to the job opportunities which Gangtok offers. Hence, for ward-wise population projections and design population Graphical method figures are used.

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Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

2.3.

DESIGN POPULATION Table-2.5 Design Population for Base, Mid-design and Design Years

The design population considered is presented in Table 2.5

Year 2010 Base Year 2025 - Mid Design Year 2040 Design Year

Total Population 110000 150000 190000

Tourist Population (Staying in Hotels) 10000 20000 30000

Design Population 120000 170000 220000

The Project Area has been divided into 10 Wards and ward wise population provided by the Census(2001) has been adopted for projected densities.

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Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

Table-2.6 Ward wise Projected Densities and Population

Wards

Area

Year 2001

Year 2010

Year 2025

Year 2040

Population*

Density ((In person/ hectare) Population Population Population 21 16 23 40 30 17 67 6 48 102 5206 6226 53263 120000 26656 3554 26 91 11 61 153 1515 40 4186 61 6070 2083 5107 38802 7939 8082 74203 170000 9999 31 14498 7213 28 10133 40 45 88 55 37 133 17 79 214 2182 30 3082 43 4370 13933 17760 7436 2552 7283 54020 10701 9900 92046 220000

Density ((In person/ hectare)

Density ((In person/ hectare)

Density ((In person/ hectare) 60 55 55 108 68 52 185 23 97 265

Penlong 4188 7352 2744 1114 2308 19599 3015 4902 35374 82149

72.50

1553

Burtuk

254.38

Sichey

321.57

Chandmari

69.17

Rongyek

37.63

Tathangchen

139.29

Tadong

292.23

Syari

475.57

Samdur

102.54

Gangtok

347.23

Total

2112.11

*Source: Census

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Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

2.4.

WATER DEMAND

Water demand for Gangtok has been estimated based on the guidelines laid down in Manual for Water Supply and Treatment published by Ministry of Urban Development, Govt of India. The recommendations as per CPHEEO Table No. 2.1, which is reproduced as Table 2.7 below: Table 2.7: Recommendations as per CPHEEO S.No. Classification of Towns/Cities Towns provided with piped water supply but without sewerage system 2 Cities provided with piped water supply where sewerage system is existing/contemplated Metropolitan and mega cities provided with piped water supply where sewerage system is existing/contemplated Recommended Max. Water Supply (lpcd) 70

135

3 Note:

150

1. In Urban areas, where water is provided through public stand post, 40 lpcd should be considered. 2. Figures exclude unaccounted for water (UFW) which should be limited to 15%. 3. Figures include requirements of water for commercial, institutional and minor industries. However the bulk supply to such establishments should be assessed separately with proper justification. Gangtok is the capital of the state of Sikkim and is the most important economic centre in the state. It is provided with piped water supply where sewerage system is existing/ contemplated. In view of the above, the per capita water supply for Gangtok has been taken as 135 lpcd + 15% Losses. Table 2.8: Water Demand Year 2010 Base Year 2025 - Mid Design Year 2040 Design Year Design Population 120000 170000 220000 Water Demand (135 lpcd + 15 % losses) MLD 18.6 26.4 34.2

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Detailed Project Report for Strengthening of the Distribution etwork of Gangtok Water Supply

Table-2.9 Ward wise Water Demand Wards Year 2010 Total Penlong Burtuk Sichey Chandmari Rongyek Tathangchen Tadong Syari Samdur Gangtok Total 2182 7213 9999 4186 1515 3554 26656 5206 6226 53263 120000 Water Demand MLD 0.3 1.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.6 4.1 0.8 1.0 8.3 Year 2025 Total 3082 10133 14498 6070 2083 5107 38802 7939 8082 74203 Water Demand MLD 0.5 1.6 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.8 6.0 1.2 1.3 11.5 Year 2040 Total 4370 13933 17760 7436 2552 7283 54020 10701 9900 92046 Water Demand MLD 0.7 2.2 2.8 1.2 0.4 1.1 8.4 1.7 1.5 14.3 34.2

18.6 170000

26.4 220000

It has been generally observed in the hilly areas that most of the growth is along the main roads of the city. First, the areas along the main road are occupied and gradually population pockets start occupying the areas off the road. It has also been found that huge patches of land remain unoccupied just because they are far from the road. Hence, for design purposes population catered to per meter of pipe laid for each ward is used for pipe sizing etc.
Ward Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total Ward Name PENLONG WARD BURTUK WARD SICHEY WARD CHANDMARI WARD RONGYEK WARD TATHANGCHEN WARD TADONG WARD SYARI WARD SAMDUR WARD GANGTOK WARD Road length in Mtrs 510.30 429.00 2651.70 194.00 240.80 492.80 480.10 1297.8 1303.90 153.90 7754.3

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