Q1 Draw the graphs of series and explain the behaviour of the series.

Jul-01
Aug-01
Sep-01
Oct-01
Nov-01
Dec-01
Jan-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Aug-02
Sep-02
Oct-02
Nov-02
Dec-02
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04

Exp
951.9
683.9
780.5
800.2
760.0
711.1
722.2
699.6
654.9
725.8
786.0
846.1
816.7
902.8
869.0
891.7
854.1
863.2
946.5
776.4
935.6
990.2
1049.6
1264.4
890.2
1038.7
1038.8
1006.6
861.6
1045.1
1094.0
906.2
1024.0
1095.8
1063.6
1248.6
1183.8
1187.7
1113.4
997.7
909.0

Imp
791.6
938.0
774.5
838.3
825.3
707.7
854.8
738.1
886.6
890.1
1119.3
975.3
927.2
969.3
880.3
1018.0
960.2
1032.6
1053.1
918.7
1270.5
1068.0
969.8
1152.6
999.8
1035.1
1077.6
1176.5
991.6
1323.8
1345.7
1139.4
1408.1
1508.7
1724.0
1861.7
1457.7
1475.2
1377.7
1456.4
1476.9

WR
84.74
96.89
158.42
188.93
260.12
193.22
180.80
236.33
227.17
238.79
255.10
268.54
307.41
392.44
353.04
377.77
353.83
363.19
383.22
342.77
356.41
306.85
336.42
363.50
307.23
280.87
318.38
328.52
253.08
385.71
382.31
289.49
329.67
335.31
306.00
355.01
330.51
339.70
312.94
334.80
291.81

Exp: Pakistan's Exports in million US $

Imp: Pakistan's Imports in million US $
WR: Pakistan's Worker's Remittances in million US $

Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08

1130.0
1148.2
1166.1
1346.8
1297.9
1378.2
1532.2
1269.3
1400.7
1483.3
1325.0
1113.5
1455.3
1224.7
1228.9
1512.9
1443.2
1484.1
1510.1
1342.0
1498.5
1412.8
1262.6
1374.9
1516.6
1175.6
1271.9
1523.1
1469.3
1584.8
1544.1
1471.6
1464.6
1484.5
1378.2
1539.2
1320.2
1464.2
1538.1
1771.6
1790.8
1920.8
1908.6
1879.4
1564.0
1772.1
1475.2

1673.7
1610.3
1783.0
2135.2
1902.6
2019.8
2229.6
1996.3
2233.8
2321.8
2325.3
2299.0
2474.7
2144.3
2210.4
2681.9
2258.6
2648.5
2986.4
2459.9
2523.6
2442.3
2131.1
2773.6
2564.2
2329.9
2572.3
2622.6
2573.5
2750.3
2796.5
2573.8
2747.4
2734.9
3384.7
3161.3
2348.8
3529.1
3657.9
3821.6
4099.9
3882.3
4023.8
3548.9
3459.5
3806.1
3460.3

336.38
321.38
339.29
443.70
401.00
358.30
358.98
313.14
348.41
341.10
372.50
308.81
371.24
391.32
358.13
423.56
401.47
506.57
463.87
377.01
434.84
421.74
410.61
448.61
475.21
391.33
457.18
520.24
513.35
537.98
505.55
495.69
489.51
516.05
580.24
505.58
479.26
557.07
502.76
602.21
590.71
584.75
547.41
627.21
592.30
660.35
466.13

Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11

1527.1
1256.5
1346.0
1249.6
1311.8
1321.5
1462.7
1522.0
1467.6
1462.3
1508.0
1577.2
1518.0
1566.1
1684.8
1518.6
1769.6
1700.8
1753.6
1780.6
1726.2
1738.4
1593.0
1938.1
1776.7
2126.6

2716.9
2125.4
2528.4
2122.7
2354.7
2798.4
2561.4
3339.3
2639.2
2528.2
2419.3
2971.6
2528.4
2907.6
3320.9
2504.6
3287.0
3015.7
3363.3
3224.2
3238.8
3010.0
2780.6
3193.3
3125.0
3751.0

620.52
673.50
637.30
641.32
739.43
697.52
720.68
735.17
744.85
780.53
806.12
758.29
742.79
697.60
667.90
589.03
763.72
755.77
757.86
841.44
791.18
933.06
922.06
855.11
926.89
863.13

Export
2500.0
2000.0
1500.0
Export
1000.0

Linear (Export)

500.0

Poly. (Export)

Nov-10

Mar-10

Jul-09

Nov-08

Mar-08

Jul-07

Nov-06

Mar-06

Jul-05

Nov-04

Mar-04

Jul-03

Nov-02

Mar-02

Jul-01

0.0

Nov-10

Mar-10

Jul-09

Nov-08

Mar-08

Jul-07

Nov-06

Mar-06

Jul-05

Nov-04

Mar-04

Jul-03

Nov-02

Mar-02

Jul-01

The behaviour of the series is inclining and the best fitted trend line is linear covering the maximum points in the g
The peak point of the graph is at May 2008 reaching upto 2000m US $.

Import
4500.0
4000.0
3500.0
3000.0
2500.0
2000.0
1500.0
1000.0
500.0
0.0

Import
Linear (Import)

Nov-10

Mar-10

Jul-09

Nov-08

Mar-08

Jul-07

Nov-06

Mar-06

Jul-05

Nov-04

Mar-04

Jul-03

Nov-02

Mar-02

Jul-01

Poly. (Import)

The behaviour of the series is inclining and the best fitted trend line is quadratic covering the maximum points in t
The peak point of the graph is at Apr 2008 reaching upto 4100m US $.

Workers Remittance
1000.00
900.00
800.00
700.00
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00

Workers Remittance
Linear (Workers
Remittance)

Jul-10

Oct-09

Jan-09

Apr-08

Jul-07

Oct-06

Jan-06

Apr-05

Jul-04

Oct-03

Jan-03

Apr-02

Jul-01

Poly. (Workers
Remittance)

The behaviour of the series is inclining and the best fitted trend line is quadratic covering the maximum points in t
The peak point of the graph is at Nov 10 reaching upto 900m US $.

s in million US $
s in million US $
r's Remittances in million US $

ering the maximum points in the graph.

covering the maximum points in the graph.

covering the maximum points in the graph.

Q2: Calculate month on month (MoM) and year on year (YoY) growth of the series, draw graph and ex

Jul-01
Aug-01
Sep-01
Oct-01
Nov-01
Dec-01
Jan-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Aug-02
Sep-02
Oct-02
Nov-02
Dec-02
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04

Exp
951.9
683.9
780.5
800.2
760.0
711.1
722.2
699.6
654.9
725.8
786.0
846.1
816.7
902.8
869.0
891.7
854.1
863.2
946.5
776.4
935.6
990.2
1049.6
1264.4
890.2
1038.7
1038.8
1006.6
861.6
1045.1
1094.0
906.2
1024.0
1095.8
1063.6
1248.6
1183.8
1187.7
1113.4
997.7

Imp
791.6
938.0
774.5
838.3
825.3
707.7
854.8
738.1
886.6
890.1
1119.3
975.3
927.2
969.3
880.3
1018.0
960.2
1032.6
1053.1
918.7
1270.5
1068.0
969.8
1152.6
999.8
1035.1
1077.6
1176.5
991.6
1323.8
1345.7
1139.4
1408.1
1508.7
1724.0
1861.7
1457.7
1475.2
1377.7
1456.4

WR
84.74
96.89
158.42
188.93
260.12
193.22
180.80
236.33
227.17
238.79
255.10
268.54
307.41
392.44
353.04
377.77
353.83
363.19
383.22
342.77
356.41
306.85
336.42
363.50
307.23
280.87
318.38
328.52
253.08
385.71
382.31
289.49
329.67
335.31
306.00
355.01
330.51
339.70
312.94
334.80

MoM-X
-28.1493
14.11524
2.526632
-5.02321
-6.43617
1.572672
-3.13176
-6.39901
10.82681
8.296869
7.648602
-3.47894
10.54697
-3.74623
2.621034
-4.22083
1.067515
9.650087
-17.9737
20.50586
5.836828
5.994016
20.46949
-29.5981
16.68274
0.013425
-3.10247
-14.4
21.29659
4.67343
-17.1633
12.99361
7.016796
-2.9361
17.39096
-5.19425
0.332798
-6.25824
-10.3861

MoM
MoM-Y
18.4904
-17.4302
8.241223
-1.55476
-14.2429
20.7777
-13.6543
20.11744
0.395277
25.75697
-12.8638
-4.9329
4.534281
-9.17609
15.63955
-5.67685
7.539198
1.983941
-12.7654
38.30192
-15.942
-9.18879
18.84443
-13.2606
3.537285
4.102036
9.181958
-15.7206
33.50276
1.653109
-15.3279
23.58129
7.142882
14.27165
7.990853
-21.7022
1.202934
-6.61262
5.71183

MoM
MoM-Z
14.33797
63.50501
19.25893
37.68062
-25.7189
-6.42791
30.7135
-3.87594
5.115112
6.830269
5.268522
14.47457
27.66013
-10.0398
7.004872
-6.33719
2.645338
5.51502
-10.5553
3.979345
-13.9053
9.63663
8.049462
-15.4801
-8.57989
13.35493
3.184873
-22.9636
52.40635
-0.88149
-24.2787
13.87958
1.710802
-8.74116
16.01634
-6.90121
2.780551
-7.87754
6.985365

Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08

909.0
1130.0
1148.2
1166.1
1346.8
1297.9
1378.2
1532.2
1269.3
1400.7
1483.3
1325.0
1113.5
1455.3
1224.7
1228.9
1512.9
1443.2
1484.1
1510.1
1342.0
1498.5
1412.8
1262.6
1374.9
1516.6
1175.6
1271.9
1523.1
1469.3
1584.8
1544.1
1471.6
1464.6
1484.5
1378.2
1539.2
1320.2
1464.2
1538.1
1771.6
1790.8
1920.8
1908.6
1879.4
1564.0
1772.1

1476.9
1673.7
1610.3
1783.0
2135.2
1902.6
2019.8
2229.6
1996.3
2233.8
2321.8
2325.3
2299.0
2474.7
2144.3
2210.4
2681.9
2258.6
2648.5
2986.4
2459.9
2523.6
2442.3
2131.1
2773.6
2564.2
2329.9
2572.3
2622.6
2573.5
2750.3
2796.5
2573.8
2747.4
2734.9
3384.7
3161.3
2348.8
3529.1
3657.9
3821.6
4099.9
3882.3
4023.8
3548.9
3459.5
3806.1

291.81
336.38
321.38
339.29
443.70
401.00
358.30
358.98
313.14
348.41
341.10
372.50
308.81
371.24
391.32
358.13
423.56
401.47
506.57
463.87
377.01
434.84
421.74
410.61
448.61
475.21
391.33
457.18
520.24
513.35
537.98
505.55
495.69
489.51
516.05
580.24
505.58
479.26
557.07
502.76
602.21
590.71
584.75
547.41
627.21
592.30
660.35

-8.8989
24.31838
1.612737
1.558354
15.49685
-3.63095
6.186528
11.17521
-17.1571
10.34907
5.896624
-10.6708
-15.9664
30.70335
-15.8495
0.348772
23.10472
-4.6042
2.833677
1.748846
-11.1306
11.66438
-5.72226
-10.6324
8.897373
10.30473
-22.4865
8.194537
19.7515
-3.53239
7.85916
-2.56474
-4.70069
-0.47544
1.358675
-7.16102
11.6846
-14.226
10.9086
5.045693
15.1804
1.083389
7.25798
-0.6363
-1.52894
-16.7796
13.30568

1.411228
13.32386
-3.7886
10.72637
19.75088
-10.8932
6.162415
10.38732
-10.4659
11.89914
3.937526
0.152082
-1.13081
7.641919
-13.35
3.081954
21.33007
-15.782
17.2598
12.75941
-17.6291
2.588966
-3.22129
-12.7425
30.14557
-7.54965
-9.13438
10.40112
1.955827
-1.8736
6.872874
1.678045
-7.96132
6.743416
-0.45679
23.76285
-6.6019
-25.7005
50.24953
3.650211
4.475151
7.28186
-5.30584
3.644428
-11.8042
-2.51902
10.02159

-12.8405
15.27364
-4.45924
5.572842
30.77308
-9.62362
-10.6484
0.189785
-12.7695
11.26333
-2.0981
9.205512
-17.098
20.21631
5.4089
-8.48155
18.2699
-5.21532
26.17879
-8.42924
-18.7251
15.33912
-3.0126
-2.63907
9.254524
5.929426
-17.6511
16.82723
13.79325
-1.32439
4.797896
-6.02811
-1.95035
-1.24675
5.421748
12.43872
-12.8671
-5.2059
16.23545
-9.74922
19.78081
-1.90963
-1.00896
-6.38563
14.57774
-5.56592
11.48911

Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10

40
30

1475.2
1527.1
1256.5
1346.0
1249.6
1311.8
1321.5
1462.7
1522.0
1467.6
1462.3
1508.0
1577.2
1518.0
1566.1
1684.8
1518.6
1769.6
1700.8
1753.6
1780.6
1726.2
1738.4
1593.0
1938.1
1776.7
2126.6

3460.3
2716.9
2125.4
2528.4
2122.7
2354.7
2798.4
2561.4
3339.3
2639.2
2528.2
2419.3
2971.6
2528.4
2907.6
3320.9
2504.6
3287.0
3015.7
3363.3
3224.2
3238.8
3010.0
2780.6
3193.3
3125.0
3751.0

466.13
620.52
673.50
637.30
641.32
739.43
697.52
720.68
735.17
744.85
780.53
806.12
758.29
742.79
697.60
667.90
589.03
763.72
755.77
757.86
841.44
791.18
933.06
922.06
855.11
926.89
863.13

-16.7543
3.517732
-17.7191
7.11823
-7.15989
4.973494
0.746085
10.68121
4.056153
-3.57671
-0.35756
3.123394
4.589074
-3.75154
3.166538
7.579602
-9.8677
16.52875
-3.88793
3.104861
1.541624
-3.05518
0.707575
-8.36328
21.65964
-8.32784
19.69413

-9.08606
-21.4831
-21.7714
18.96127
-16.0447
10.92615
18.84232
-8.46739
30.36964
-20.9654
-4.20421
-4.30856
22.82653
-14.9135
14.99602
14.21592
-24.581
31.23914
-8.25448
11.52822
-4.13537
0.451735
-7.06335
-7.62257
14.84357
-2.1394
20.03092

-29.4117
33.12166
8.538
-5.37491
0.630786
15.29814
-5.66788
3.320335
2.010601
1.316702
4.790226
3.278542
-5.93336
-2.04407
-6.08382
-4.25745
-11.8086
29.65699
-1.04086
0.276929
11.02812
-5.97321
17.93271
-1.17892
-7.26092
8.394242
-6.87892

MoM-X

20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40

The series exhibits fluctuating behaviour

Highest position:

MoM-X

Point: 54
Value: 30.70
Lowest position:
Point: 35
Value: -29.6
60
50

YoY-X
100

40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30

The series exhibits fluctuating behaviour

Highest position:
Point: 12
Value: 49.44
Lowest position:
Point: 81
Value: -25.96

YoY-X

the series, draw graph and explain behavior of series

MoM
YoY-X

YoY
YoY-Y

YoY-Z

-14.204
32.00264
11.34141
11.44392
12.38542
21.39857
31.05261
10.97298
42.87129
36.43851
33.53724
49.44146
9.00174
15.05175
19.54565
12.87821
0.881781
21.07368
15.57854
16.72039
9.444128
10.66431
1.340716
-1.24899
32.98168
14.34787
7.177323
-0.87907

17.13041
3.334477
13.66433
21.43333
16.34869
45.90099
23.19789
24.46616
43.309
19.98835
-13.3544
18.17529
7.823348
6.794983
22.40802
15.57247
3.266078
28.19796
27.78209
24.02848
10.82709
41.26363
77.7581
61.52417
45.80437
42.51707
27.84856
23.78515

262.7685
305.0366
122.8507
99.95236
36.02568
87.96708
111.958
45.03872
56.89131
28.50203
31.8777
35.36158
-0.05855
-28.4298
-9.81758
-13.037
-28.4741
6.200611
-0.23746
-15.544
-7.5026
9.27489
-9.04227
-2.33563
7.577385
20.94563
-1.70865
1.911604

5.490971
8.119007
4.957564
28.67876
31.52949
18.44283
29.57478
22.7139
7.229497
17.93427
33.22601
32.80287
22.50017
28.79176
6.65875
5.388421
12.33043
11.19598
7.684953
-1.44548
5.724
6.984187
-4.75403
-4.71308
23.48034
4.209001
-4.00997
3.495003
0.675931
1.807075
6.782389
2.255413
9.653845
-2.2674
5.073026
9.154418
11.94822
-12.9481
24.55646
20.93143
16.31528
21.88073
21.20139
23.60021
27.71387
6.791733
19.37913

48.94742
26.43407
19.66578
56.48793
51.63758
26.11135
17.16192
19.7619
36.94862
51.42282
68.52933
59.6658
55.66351
47.8587
33.16459
23.97106
25.6059
18.71468
31.12417
33.94188
23.22584
12.97326
5.192105
-8.35134
20.6409
3.614779
8.65579
16.37072
-2.2116
13.93789
3.845226
-6.3601
4.630305
8.867421
11.97723
58.82435
13.97924
-8.39845
51.46643
42.20442
45.71828
59.31418
41.15951
43.88943
37.88164
25.91726
39.17189

15.30346
-12.7894
-15.9373
17.20267
34.58913
19.59083
17.0915
1.118278
-5.25551
2.564027
8.99853
11.26045
5.825709
10.36328
21.7624
5.552772
-4.5391
0.117207
41.38152
29.2189
20.39663
24.80698
23.64116
10.23087
45.27055
28.00614
0.002555
27.65755
22.82557
27.86759
6.200525
8.985276
31.47927
12.57244
22.36212
41.31171
12.69923
0.852255
42.353
9.969815
15.75619
15.06964
8.693632
8.280091
26.53271
20.99855
27.96241

7.043342
-0.78413
-4.82457
-8.07725
-18.758
-25.9574
-26.2045
-23.8493
-20.253
-21.9114
-6.50207
-14.9043
6.913418
-0.5943
24.63815
25.17499
21.52408
34.90119
28.69614
19.88663
16.98956
17.62233
18.87966
5.637935
22.87969
17.03716
35.78686

2.233132
-14.0558
-9.51088
-28.3545
-41.9681
-38.3848
-31.7453
-34.0241
-17.012
-25.6322
-26.9178
-36.4366
-14.1247
-6.93928
36.79928
31.34238
17.98794
39.5941
7.765752
31.30755
-3.4457
22.71894
19.05624
14.93305
7.463117
23.59657
29.00803

-19.666
22.73429
40.52915
14.40214
27.55987
22.78607
18.08163
23.24583
34.2997
18.75608
31.7795
22.07466
62.67779
19.70444
3.578322
4.801506
-8.15341
3.284864
8.351015
5.159426
14.4553
6.220044
19.54185
14.38247
12.7682
24.78493
23.7285

MoM-Y
60
50
40
30
20

MoM-Y

10
0
-10
-20
-30

The series exhibits extreme fluctuation

Highest position:

Point: 79
Value: 50.25
Lowest position:
Point: 78
Value: -25.70

YoY-Y
100

350

80

300

60

250

40

200

20

YoY-Y

150

100

-20

50

-40

-60

-50

The series exhibits fluctuating behaviour

Highest position:

The series exhibits fluctuating

Highest position:

Point: 23
Value: 77.76
Lowest position:
Point: 80
Value: -41.97

Point: 2
Value: 305.3
Lowest position:
Point: 17
Value: -28.47

MoM-Z
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40

The series exhibits extreme fluctuation

Highest position:

MoM-Z

Point: 3
Value: 63.51
Lowest position:
Point: 88
Value: -29.41

YoY-Z

YoY-Z

The series exhibits fluctuating behaviour

Highest position:
Value: 305.3
Lowest position:
Value: -28.47

Q3: Regress the three series with time trend and identify the trend i.e. it is linear or quadratic.
Exp
Jul-01
Aug-01
Sep-01
Oct-01
Nov-01
Dec-01
Jan-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Aug-02
Sep-02
Oct-02
Nov-02
Dec-02
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03

Imp
951.9
683.9
780.5
800.2
760.0
711.1
722.2
699.6
654.9
725.8
786.0
846.1
816.7
902.8
869.0
891.7
854.1
863.2
946.5
776.4
935.6
990.2
1049.6
1264.4
890.2
1038.7
1038.8
1006.6
861.6
1045.1

WR
791.6
938.0
774.5
838.3
825.3
707.7
854.8
738.1
886.6
890.1
1119.3
975.3
927.2
969.3
880.3
1018.0
960.2
1032.6
1053.1
918.7
1270.5
1068.0
969.8
1152.6
999.8
1035.1
1077.6
1176.5
991.6
1323.8

t
84.74
96.89
158.42
188.93
260.12
193.22
180.80
236.33
227.17
238.79
255.10
268.54
307.41
392.44
353.04
377.77
353.83
363.19
383.22
342.77
356.41
306.85
336.42
363.50
307.23
280.87
318.38
328.52
253.08
385.71

t^2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
169
196
225
256
289
324
361
400
441
484
529
576
625
676
729
784
841
900

Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06

1094.0
906.2
1024.0
1095.8
1063.6
1248.6
1183.8
1187.7
1113.4
997.7
909.0
1130.0
1148.2
1166.1
1346.8
1297.9
1378.2
1532.2
1269.3
1400.7
1483.3
1325.0
1113.5
1455.3
1224.7
1228.9
1512.9
1443.2
1484.1
1510.1
1342.0
1498.5
1412.8
1262.6

1345.7
1139.4
1408.1
1508.7
1724.0
1861.7
1457.7
1475.2
1377.7
1456.4
1476.9
1673.7
1610.3
1783.0
2135.2
1902.6
2019.8
2229.6
1996.3
2233.8
2321.8
2325.3
2299.0
2474.7
2144.3
2210.4
2681.9
2258.6
2648.5
2986.4
2459.9
2523.6
2442.3
2131.1

382.31
289.49
329.67
335.31
306.00
355.01
330.51
339.70
312.94
334.80
291.81
336.38
321.38
339.29
443.70
401.00
358.30
358.98
313.14
348.41
341.10
372.50
308.81
371.24
391.32
358.13
423.56
401.47
506.57
463.87
377.01
434.84
421.74
410.61

31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

961
1024
1089
1156
1225
1296
1369
1444
1521
1600
1681
1764
1849
1936
2025
2116
2209
2304
2401
2500
2601
2704
2809
2916
3025
3136
3249
3364
3481
3600
3721
3844
3969
4096

Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09

1374.9
1516.6
1175.6
1271.9
1523.1
1469.3
1584.8
1544.1
1471.6
1464.6
1484.5
1378.2
1539.2
1320.2
1464.2
1538.1
1771.6
1790.8
1920.8
1908.6
1879.4
1564.0
1772.1
1475.2
1527.1
1256.5
1346.0
1249.6
1311.8
1321.5
1462.7
1522.0
1467.6
1462.3

2773.6
2564.2
2329.9
2572.3
2622.6
2573.5
2750.3
2796.5
2573.8
2747.4
2734.9
3384.7
3161.3
2348.8
3529.1
3657.9
3821.6
4099.9
3882.3
4023.8
3548.9
3459.5
3806.1
3460.3
2716.9
2125.4
2528.4
2122.7
2354.7
2798.4
2561.4
3339.3
2639.2
2528.2

448.61
475.21
391.33
457.18
520.24
513.35
537.98
505.55
495.69
489.51
516.05
580.24
505.58
479.26
557.07
502.76
602.21
590.71
584.75
547.41
627.21
592.30
660.35
466.13
620.52
673.50
637.30
641.32
739.43
697.52
720.68
735.17
744.85
780.53

65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98

4225
4356
4489
4624
4761
4900
5041
5184
5329
5476
5625
5776
5929
6084
6241
6400
6561
6724
6889
7056
7225
7396
7569
7744
7921
8100
8281
8464
8649
8836
9025
9216
9409
9604

Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10

1508.0
1577.2
1518.0
1566.1
1684.8
1518.6
1769.6
1700.8
1753.6
1780.6
1726.2
1738.4
1593.0
1938.1
1776.7
2126.6

2419.3
2971.6
2528.4
2907.6
3320.9
2504.6
3287.0
3015.7
3363.3
3224.2
3238.8
3010.0
2780.6
3193.3
3125.0
3751.0

806.12
758.29
742.79
697.60
667.90
589.03
763.72
755.77
757.86
841.44
791.18
933.06
922.06
855.11
926.89
863.13

99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114

423.3

Significance F
7.64325E-40

Export
Linear Trend
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.89
R Square
0.79
Adjusted R Square
0.79
Standard Error
154.54
Observations
114

Y=772.3+9.05t

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
112
113

SS
10108922.0
2674999.7
12783921.6

MS
10108922.0
23883.9

9801
10000
10201
10404
10609
10816
11025
11236
11449
11664
11881
12100
12321
12544
12769
12996

Intercept
X Variable 1

Coefficients
772.316
9.049

Standard Error
29.140
0.440

t Stat
26.503
20.573

P-value
0.000
0.000

Lower 95%
714.579
8.178

Upper 95%
830.054
9.921

Quadratic Trend
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.898827528
R Square
0.8079
Adjusted R Square
0.8044
Standard Error
148.7457
Observations
114

Y=671.68+14.25t-0.045t^2

ANOVA
df
2
111
113

SS
10328014.25
2455907.366
12783921.62

MS
5164007.125
22125.29158

F
Significance F
233.3983761 1.72547E-40

Coefficients
671.68
14.25
-0.045

Standard Error
42.5380
1.7076
0.0144

t Stat
15.7900
8.3480
-3.1468

P-value
Lower 95%
0.0000
587.3831
0.0000
10.8710
0.0021
-0.0738

Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

Upper 95%
755.9671
17.6383
-0.0168

Conclusion
The trend of this series is linear because in the quadratic trend the value of X variable 2 is very small and negative.
Import
Linear Trend
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.89
R Square
0.79
Adjusted R Square
0.79
Standard Error
431.41
Observations
114

Y=720.84+25.06t

ANOVA
df
1
112
113

SS
77550331.42
20844486.08
98394817.5

Coefficients
720.84
25.064

Standard Error
81.34
1.23

Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

MS
77550331.42
186111.4829

t Stat

F
Significance F
416.6875156 1.52792E-39

P-value
8.86
20.41

0.00
0.00

Lower 95%
559.66
22.63

Quadratic trend
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9058
R Square
0.8205
Adjusted R Square
0.8173
Standard Error
398.8947
Observations
114

Y=337.26+44.9t-0.172t^2

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual

2
111

SS
80732832.81
17661984.69

MS
40366416.41
159116.9792

F
Significance F
253.6901883 3.98781E-42

Upper 95%
882.01
27.50

Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

113

98394817.5

Coefficients
337.27
44.90
-0.17

Standard Error
114.08
4.58
0.04

t Stat

P-value
2.96
9.81
-4.47

Lower 95%
0.00
111.22
0.00
35.83
0.00
-0.25

Upper 95%
563.31
53.98
-0.10

Conclusion
The trend of this series is linear because in the quadratic trend the value of X variable 1 is very small and negative.

Workers remittances
Linear Trend
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.93
R Square
0.86
Adjusted R Square
0.86
Standard Error
71.91
Observations
114

Y=154.107+5.4389t

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

1
112
113

SS
3651906.496
579144.1812
4231050.678

Coefficients
154.1
5.4

Standard Error
13.6
0.2

MS
3651906.496
5170.930189

t Stat

F
Significance F
706.2378262 3.48882E-50

P-value
11.4
26.6

Lower 95%
0.0
127.2
0.0
5.0

Upper 95%
181.0
5.8

Quadratic trend
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.954
R Square
0.911
Adjusted R Square
0.909
Standard Error
58.321
Observations
114

Y=250.64+0.44t+0.043t^2

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

2
111
113

SS
3853495.968
377554.7095
4231050.678

Coefficients
250.64
0.45
0.04

Standard Error
16.68
0.67
0.01

MS
1926747.984
3401.393779

t Stat

F
Significance F
566.4583724 5.68208E-59

P-value
15.03
0.67
7.70

Lower 95%
0.00
217.59
0.51
-0.88
0.00
0.03

Upper 95%
283.69
1.77
0.05

Conclusion
The trend of this series is Linear because in quadratic trend the calculated value of X variable 1 lies in the acceptance region,
which means that regression coefficient is not significant. This model is not fit for forecasting

Q4: Estimate simple linear regression of combination of three series given to you. Test the significance o
apply the goodness of fit test for these combinations and if both tests show significance of regression eq
then forecast the respective dependent variables.
X
Exp
Jul-01
Aug-01
Sep-01
Oct-01
Nov-01
Dec-01
Jan-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Aug-02
Sep-02
Oct-02
Nov-02
Dec-02
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04

951.9
683.9
780.5
800.2
760.0
711.1
722.2
699.6
654.9
725.8
786.0
846.1
816.7
902.8
869.0
891.7
854.1
863.2
946.5
776.4
935.6
990.2
1049.6
1264.4
890.2
1038.7
1038.8
1006.6
861.6
1045.1
1094.0
906.2
1024.0
1095.8
1063.6
1248.6
1183.8
1187.7
1113.4

Y
Imp

Z
WR
791.6
938.0
774.5
838.3
825.3
707.7
854.8
738.1
886.6
890.1
1119.3
975.3
927.2
969.3
880.3
1018.0
960.2
1032.6
1053.1
918.7
1270.5
1068.0
969.8
1152.6
999.8
1035.1
1077.6
1176.5
991.6
1323.8
1345.7
1139.4
1408.1
1508.7
1724.0
1861.7
1457.7
1475.2
1377.7

84.74
96.89
158.42
188.93
260.12
193.22
180.80
236.33
227.17
238.79
255.10
268.54
307.41
392.44
353.04
377.77
353.83
363.19
383.22
342.77
356.41
306.85
336.42
363.50
307.23
280.87
318.38
328.52
253.08
385.71
382.31
289.49
329.67
335.31
306.00
355.01
330.51
339.70
312.94

Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08

997.7
909.0
1130.0
1148.2
1166.1
1346.8
1297.9
1378.2
1532.2
1269.3
1400.7
1483.3
1325.0
1113.5
1455.3
1224.7
1228.9
1512.9
1443.2
1484.1
1510.1
1342.0
1498.5
1412.8
1262.6
1374.9
1516.6
1175.6
1271.9
1523.1
1469.3
1584.8
1544.1
1471.6
1464.6
1484.5
1378.2
1539.2
1320.2
1464.2
1538.1
1771.6
1790.8
1920.8
1908.6
1879.4
1564.0

1456.4
1476.9
1673.7
1610.3
1783.0
2135.2
1902.6
2019.8
2229.6
1996.3
2233.8
2321.8
2325.3
2299.0
2474.7
2144.3
2210.4
2681.9
2258.6
2648.5
2986.4
2459.9
2523.6
2442.3
2131.1
2773.6
2564.2
2329.9
2572.3
2622.6
2573.5
2750.3
2796.5
2573.8
2747.4
2734.9
3384.7
3161.3
2348.8
3529.1
3657.9
3821.6
4099.9
3882.3
4023.8
3548.9
3459.5

334.80
291.81
336.38
321.38
339.29
443.70
401.00
358.30
358.98
313.14
348.41
341.10
372.50
308.81
371.24
391.32
358.13
423.56
401.47
506.57
463.87
377.01
434.84
421.74
410.61
448.61
475.21
391.33
457.18
520.24
513.35
537.98
505.55
495.69
489.51
516.05
580.24
505.58
479.26
557.07
502.76
602.21
590.71
584.75
547.41
627.21
592.30

Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10

1772.1
1475.2
1527.1
1256.5
1346.0
1249.6
1311.8
1321.5
1462.7
1522.0
1467.6
1462.3
1508.0
1577.2
1518.0
1566.1
1684.8
1518.6
1769.6
1700.8
1753.6
1780.6
1726.2
1738.4
1593.0
1938.1
1776.7
2126.6

3806.1
3460.3
2716.9
2125.4
2528.4
2122.7
2354.7
2798.4
2561.4
3339.3
2639.2
2528.2
2419.3
2971.6
2528.4
2907.6
3320.9
2504.6
3287.0
3015.7
3363.3
3224.2
3238.8
3010.0
2780.6
3193.3
3125.0
3751.0

660.35
466.13
620.52
673.50
637.30
641.32
739.43
697.52
720.68
735.17
744.85
780.53
806.12
758.29
742.79
697.60
667.90
589.03
763.72
755.77
757.86
841.44
791.18
933.06
922.06
855.11
926.89
863.13

Export on import
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.94
R Square
0.88
Adjusted R Square
0.88
Standard Error
118.43
Observations
114

X=562.79+0.338Y

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
112
113

SS
11212974
1570948
12783922

MS
11212974
14026

Significance F
799
0

Intercept
X Variable 1

Coefficients
Standard Error
562.80
28.0954
0.338
0.0119

Results
Calculated T-Stats=
P-Value
Conclusions
Coeffecient of determination
Conclusions
Forecasting
For X on Y
For Y= 3444
For Y= 3053
For Y= 3417

t Stat
20.0316
28.2741

28.2741
8.24469E-53
Significant
0.88
Significant

X=562.79+0.338Y
X= 562.80+0.338(3444)=
X= 562.80+0.338(3053)=
X= 562.80+0.338(3417)=

P-value
0.0000
0.0000

Lower 95%
507.1282
0.3139

Greater than 2
smaller than 0.05
b0
Greater than 0.65
Model is fit for forecasting

Forecasted value
1726.87
1594.71
1717.75

Export on WR
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.805887
R Square
0.649454
Adjusted R Square 0.646324
Standard Error
200.030310
Observations
114

X=638.67+1.40Z

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
112
113

Intercept
X Variable 1

SS
8302563.61
4481358.01
12783921.6

Coefficients
Standard Error
638.674
49.112
1.401
0.097

Results
Calculated T-Stats=
P-Value
Conclusions

MS
8302563.605
40012.12509

F
Significance F
207.5011908 2.97718E-27

t Stat
13.004
14.405

P-value
0.000
0.000

14.405
2.97718E-27
Significant

Greater than 2
smaller than 0.05
b0

Lower 95%
541.365
1.208

Coeffecient of determination
Conclusions
Forecasting
For X on Z
For Z= 826.57
For Z= 845.28
For Z= 1052.88

0.65
Significant

X=638.67+1.40Z
X=638.67+1.40(826.57)
X=638.67+1.40(845.28)
X=638.67+1.40(1052.88)

Greater than 0.65

Model is fit for forecasting

Forecasted value
1795.87
1822.06
2112.7

Import on WR
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.7662
R Square
0.5871
Adjusted R Square
0.5834
Standard Error
602.3014
Observations
114

Y= 437.03+3.695Z

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
112
113

Intercept
X Variable 1

SS
57764917
40629901
98394818

Coefficients
Standard Error
437.0326
147.8795
3.6949
0.2928

Result
Calculated T-Stats=
P-Value
Conclusions
Coeffecient of determination
Conclusions
Forecasting
For Y on Z
For Z= 826.57
For Z= 845.28
For Z= 1052.88

MS
57764917
362767

t Stat
2.9553
12.6188

12.61880
3.008E-23
Significant
0.59
Insignificant

Y= 437.03+3.695Z
Y=437.03+3.695(826.57)
Y=437.03+3.695(845.28)
Y=437.03+3.695(1052.88)

F
Significance F
159.2342216 3.00811E-23

P-value
0.0038
0.0000

Lower 95%
144.0284
3.1148

Greater than 2
smaller than 0.05
b0
Smaller than 0.65
Model is fit for forecasting

Forecasted value
3491.21
3560.34
4327.42

Line fit plot

Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38

For X on Y
Export on Import

For X on Z
Export on WR

For Y on Z
Import on WR

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Predicted Y
830.03
879.44
824.25
845.79
841.39
801.71
851.35
811.95
862.08
863.26
940.65
892.05
875.80
890.00
859.97
906.45
886.94
911.38
918.29
872.91
991.69
923.32
890.19
951.89
900.29
912.23
926.56
959.96
897.53
1009.67
1017.06
947.43
1038.13
1072.08
1144.77
1191.27
1054.88
1060.80

Residuals
121.84
-195.52
-43.79
-45.62
-81.41
-90.65
-129.10
-112.32
-207.22
-137.50
-154.67
-45.95
-59.14
12.80
9.00
-14.70
-32.83
-48.15
28.23
-96.51
-56.09
66.90
159.38
312.53
-10.12
126.45
112.25
46.62
-35.89
35.47
76.92
-41.21
-14.16
23.73
-81.12
57.35
128.89
126.91

Predicted Y
830.03
879.44
824.25
845.79
841.39
801.71
851.35
811.95
862.08
863.26
940.65
892.05
875.80
890.00
859.97
906.45
886.94
911.38
918.29
872.91
991.69
923.32
890.19
951.89
900.29
912.23
926.56
959.96
897.53
1009.67
1017.06
947.43
1038.13
1072.08
1144.77
1191.27
1054.88
1060.80

Residuals
121.84
-195.52
-43.79
-45.62
-81.41
-90.65
-129.10
-112.32
-207.22
-137.50
-154.67
-45.95
-59.14
12.80
9.00
-14.70
-32.83
-48.15
28.23
-96.51
-56.09
66.90
159.38
312.53
-10.12
126.45
112.25
46.62
-35.89
35.47
76.92
-41.21
-14.16
23.73
-81.12
57.35
128.89
126.91

Predicted Y
750.14
795.04
1022.39
1135.12
1398.16
1150.97
1105.08
1310.26
1276.41
1319.35
1379.61
1429.27
1572.90
1887.08
1741.50
1832.87
1744.41
1779.00
1853.01
1703.55
1753.95
1570.83
1680.09
1780.15
1572.23
1474.83
1613.43
1650.90
1372.15
1862.21
1849.65
1506.68
1655.15
1675.98
1567.69
1748.77
1658.25
1692.21

39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85

1027.87
1054.43
1061.37
1127.80
1106.39
1164.70
1283.58
1205.07
1244.65
1315.47
1236.70
1316.89
1346.58
1347.77
1338.89
1398.20
1286.68
1308.98
1468.15
1325.26
1456.87
1570.94
1393.22
1414.72
1387.27
1282.21
1499.09
1428.40
1349.33
1431.14
1448.12
1431.54
1491.24
1506.82
1431.67
1490.26
1486.02
1705.41
1629.97
1355.70
1754.13
1797.62
1852.88
1946.82
1873.39
1921.15
1760.81

85.51
-56.69
-152.42
2.19
41.82
1.41
63.24
92.85
133.57
216.76
32.65
83.83
136.73
-22.74
-225.43
57.14
-62.00
-80.04
44.74
117.97
27.26
-60.86
-51.21
83.82
25.52
-19.64
-124.17
88.19
-173.77
-159.24
74.99
37.78
93.54
37.32
39.89
-25.70
-1.56
-327.25
-90.78
-35.48
-289.89
-259.50
-81.26
-156.01
47.40
-12.59
118.57

1027.87
1054.43
1061.37
1127.80
1106.39
1164.70
1283.58
1205.07
1244.65
1315.47
1236.70
1316.89
1346.58
1347.77
1338.89
1398.20
1286.68
1308.98
1468.15
1325.26
1456.87
1570.94
1393.22
1414.72
1387.27
1282.21
1499.09
1428.40
1349.33
1431.14
1448.12
1431.54
1491.24
1506.82
1431.67
1490.26
1486.02
1705.41
1629.97
1355.70
1754.13
1797.62
1852.88
1946.82
1873.39
1921.15
1760.81

85.51
-56.69
-152.42
2.19
41.82
1.41
63.24
92.85
133.57
216.76
32.65
83.83
136.73
-22.74
-225.43
57.14
-62.00
-80.04
44.74
117.97
27.26
-60.86
-51.21
83.82
25.52
-19.64
-124.17
88.19
-173.77
-159.24
74.99
37.78
93.54
37.32
39.89
-25.70
-1.56
-327.25
-90.78
-35.48
-289.89
-259.50
-81.26
-156.01
47.40
-12.59
118.57

1593.33
1674.10
1515.25
1679.94
1624.51
1690.69
2076.48
1918.71
1760.93
1763.44
1594.07
1724.39
1697.38
1813.40
1578.07
1808.74
1882.94
1760.30
2002.06
1920.44
2308.78
2151.01
1830.06
2043.74
1995.34
1954.21
2094.62
2192.91
1882.98
2126.29
2359.29
2333.83
2424.84
2305.01
2268.58
2245.75
2343.81
2580.99
2305.12
2207.87
2495.38
2294.70
2662.17
2619.67
2597.65
2459.68
2754.54

86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114

1730.63
1847.67
1730.92
1479.97
1280.29
1416.34
1279.39
1357.68
1507.46
1427.47
1690.07
1453.73
1416.28
1379.50
1565.93
1416.33
1544.32
1683.86
1408.29
1672.41
1580.82
1698.18
1651.23
1656.14
1578.92
1501.46
1640.79
1617.73
1829.05

-166.60
-75.53
-255.70
47.15
-23.76
-70.36
-29.79
-45.93
-185.92
35.22
-168.05
13.85
46.06
128.51
11.29
101.72
21.79
0.96
110.28
97.15
119.95
55.39
129.38
70.06
159.50
91.57
297.28
158.95
297.53

1730.63
1847.67
1730.92
1479.97
1280.29
1416.34
1279.39
1357.68
1507.46
1427.47
1690.07
1453.73
1416.28
1379.50
1565.93
1416.33
1544.32
1683.86
1408.29
1672.41
1580.82
1698.18
1651.23
1656.14
1578.92
1501.46
1640.79
1617.73
1829.05

-166.60
-75.53
-255.70
47.15
-23.76
-70.36
-29.79
-45.93
-185.92
35.22
-168.05
13.85
46.06
128.51
11.29
101.72
21.79
0.96
110.28
97.15
119.95
55.39
129.38
70.06
159.50
91.57
297.28
158.95
297.53

2625.55
2876.99
2159.36
2729.82
2925.58
2791.82
2806.67
3169.19
3014.33
3099.91
3153.45
3189.21
3321.05
3415.60
3238.87
3181.60
3014.63
2904.89
2613.47
3258.93
3229.56
3237.29
3546.11
3360.40
3884.64
3843.99
3596.62
3861.84
3626.25

Test the significance of regression coefficients,

cance of regression equation,

Upper 95%
618.4631
0.3612

Upper 95%
735.984
1.593

Upper 95%
730.0368
4.2751

IDUAL OUTPUT
Residuals
41.47
142.95
-247.90
-296.80
-572.88
-443.23
-250.29
-572.18
-389.86
-429.29
-260.30
-453.95
-645.68
-917.82
-861.18
-814.88
-784.21
-746.40
-799.92
-784.89
-483.43
-502.86
-710.25
-627.55
-572.48
-439.71
-535.85
-474.37
-380.58
-538.44
-503.99
-367.29
-247.07
-167.33
156.28
112.95
-200.56
-216.98

-215.66
-217.74
-38.34
-6.24
-14.23
92.32
58.69
-16.12
258.90
466.19
402.21
509.43
624.40
511.91
720.95
665.96
261.39
450.12
679.84
338.20
339.70
835.41
629.87
479.88
446.99
176.90
678.93
371.25
446.96
445.99
263.30
239.62
325.48
491.46
305.26
501.66
391.04
803.74
856.15
140.94
1033.70
1363.19
1159.43
1480.20
1284.69
1564.15
794.31

833.91
929.16
1300.96
-12.89
-800.16
-263.40
-683.93
-814.51
-215.97
-538.50
185.85
-550.01
-792.80
-996.29
-267.31
-653.20
-107.07
416.01
-108.88
28.06
-213.89
126.03
-321.87
-121.60
-874.60
-1063.40
-403.29
-736.83
124.73

Q5: Estimate multiple regression of combination of three series given to you. Test the significance of regression coeffecients,
and if they are significant then forecasting the respective dependent variables. Also apply goodness of fit test for these regressions.
X
Exp
Jul-01
Aug-01
Sep-01
Oct-01
Nov-01
Dec-01
Jan-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Aug-02
Sep-02
Oct-02
Nov-02
Dec-02
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03

951.9
683.9
780.5
800.2
760.0
711.1
722.2
699.6
654.9
725.8
786.0
846.1
816.7
902.8
869.0
891.7
854.1
863.2
946.5
776.4
935.6
990.2
1049.6
1264.4
890.2
1038.7
1038.8
1006.6

Y
Imp
791.6
938.0
774.5
838.3
825.3
707.7
854.8
738.1
886.6
890.1
1119.3
975.3
927.2
969.3
880.3
1018.0
960.2
1032.6
1053.1
918.7
1270.5
1068.0
969.8
1152.6
999.8
1035.1
1077.6
1176.5

Z
WR
84.74
96.89
158.42
188.93
260.12
193.22
180.80
236.33
227.17
238.79
255.10
268.54
307.41
392.44
353.04
377.77
353.83
363.19
383.22
342.77
356.41
306.85
336.42
363.50
307.23
280.87
318.38
328.52

Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06

861.6
1045.1
1094.0
906.2
1024.0
1095.8
1063.6
1248.6
1183.8
1187.7
1113.4
997.7
909.0
1130.0
1148.2
1166.1
1346.8
1297.9
1378.2
1532.2
1269.3
1400.7
1483.3
1325.0
1113.5
1455.3
1224.7
1228.9
1512.9
1443.2
1484.1
1510.1
1342.0
1498.5

991.6
1323.8
1345.7
1139.4
1408.1
1508.7
1724.0
1861.7
1457.7
1475.2
1377.7
1456.4
1476.9
1673.7
1610.3
1783.0
2135.2
1902.6
2019.8
2229.6
1996.3
2233.8
2321.8
2325.3
2299.0
2474.7
2144.3
2210.4
2681.9
2258.6
2648.5
2986.4
2459.9
2523.6

253.08
385.71
382.31
289.49
329.67
335.31
306.00
355.01
330.51
339.70
312.94
334.80
291.81
336.38
321.38
339.29
443.70
401.00
358.30
358.98
313.14
348.41
341.10
372.50
308.81
371.24
391.32
358.13
423.56
401.47
506.57
463.87
377.01
434.84

Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09

1412.8
1262.6
1374.9
1516.6
1175.6
1271.9
1523.1
1469.3
1584.8
1544.1
1471.6
1464.6
1484.5
1378.2
1539.2
1320.2
1464.2
1538.1
1771.6
1790.8
1920.8
1908.6
1879.4
1564.0
1772.1
1475.2
1527.1
1256.5
1346.0
1249.6
1311.8
1321.5
1462.7
1522.0

2442.3
2131.1
2773.6
2564.2
2329.9
2572.3
2622.6
2573.5
2750.3
2796.5
2573.8
2747.4
2734.9
3384.7
3161.3
2348.8
3529.1
3657.9
3821.6
4099.9
3882.3
4023.8
3548.9
3459.5
3806.1
3460.3
2716.9
2125.4
2528.4
2122.7
2354.7
2798.4
2561.4
3339.3

421.74
410.61
448.61
475.21
391.33
457.18
520.24
513.35
537.98
505.55
495.69
489.51
516.05
580.24
505.58
479.26
557.07
502.76
602.21
590.71
584.75
547.41
627.21
592.30
660.35
466.13
620.52
673.50
637.30
641.32
739.43
697.52
720.68
735.17

Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10

1467.6
1462.3
1508.0
1577.2
1518.0
1566.1
1684.8
1518.6
1769.6
1700.8
1753.6
1780.6
1726.2
1738.4
1593.0
1938.1
1776.7
2126.6

2639.2
2528.2
2419.3
2971.6
2528.4
2907.6
3320.9
2504.6
3287.0
3015.7
3363.3
3224.2
3238.8
3010.0
2780.6
3193.3
3125.0
3751.0

744.85
780.53
806.12
758.29
742.79
697.60
667.90
589.03
763.72
755.77
757.86
841.44
791.18
933.06
922.06
855.11
926.89
863.13

Exp=f(Imp,WR)
For X=f(Y,Z)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.946571
R Square
0.895997
Adjusted R Square
0.894123
Standard Error
109.444
Observations
114

X= 516.95+0.278Y+0.37Z

ANOVA
df

SS

MS

Significance F

Regression
Residual
Total

2
111
113

11454361
1329561
12783922

Coefficients
Standard Error
516.95
27.90
0.28
0.02
0.37
0.08

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

5727180
11978

t Stat
18.53
16.22
4.49

Calculated
T-Stats=

X Variable 1
X Variable 2

16.22133
4.48915

Greater
than 2

P-Value

X Variable 1
X Variable 2

0.00000
0.00002

Smaller
than 0.05

Conclusions

X Variable 1
X Variable 2

Significant
Significant

Coeffecient of determination
Conclusions

0.90
Significant

Model fit
for forecasting
Greater than 0.65
fit for forecasting

Imp=g(Exp,WR)
For Y=g(X,Z)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.94
R Square
0.88
Adjusted R Square
0.88
Standard Error
329.54
Observations
114

Y= -1175.7+0.15X+2.52Z

478.1406

2.79221E-55

P-value
0.00
0.00
0.00

Lower 95%
461.67
0.24
0.21

Upper 95%
572.24
0.31
0.54

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

2
111
113

SS
86340452.5
12054365.0
98394817.5

Coefficients
Standard Error
-1175.7351
128.1849
0.1576
0.2706
2.5252
0.1557

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

Calculated T-Stats= X Variable 1

X Variable 2
P-Value

X Variable 1
X Variable 2

Conclusions

X Variable 1
X Variable 2

Coeffecient of determination
Conclusions

MS
43170226.2
108597.9

t Stat
-9.1722
0.5825
16.2213

0.5825
16.2213

Smaller than
Greater than 2

0.5614
0.0000

Greater than 0.05

Smaller than 0.05

Insignificant
Significant

Model is not fit

for forecasting

0.88
Significant

Model is fit
for forecasting

WR=h(Exp,Imp)
For Z=h(X,Y)
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.807
R Square
0.651
Adjusted R Square
0.644225

Z= -109.3+0.41X+0.019Y

F
Significance F
397.523643
2.47487E-51

P-value
0.0000
0.5614
0.0000

Lower 95%
-1429.7420
-0.3786
2.2167

Upper 95%
-921.7282
0.6938
2.8337

Standard Error
Observations

115.417745
114

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

2
111
113

SS
2752391.3
1478659.4
4231050.7

Coefficients
Standard Error
-109.3182
58.6135
0.4134
0.0921
0.0193
0.0332

Calculated T-Stats= X Variable 1

X Variable 2

MS
1376195.6
13321.3

t Stat
-1.8651
4.4892
0.5825

4.4892
0.5825

Greater than 2
Smaller than 2

P-Value

X Variable 1
X Variable 2

0.0000
0.5614

Smaller than 0.05

Greater than 0.05

Conclusions

X Variable 1
X Variable 2

Significant
Insignificant

model is not fit

for forecasting

0.65
Significant

Model is fit
for forecasting

Coeffecient of determination
Conclusions

F
103.3

Significance F
4.56884E-26

P-value
0.0648
0.0000
0.5614

Lower 95%
-225.4647
0.2309
-0.0464

Upper 95%
6.8284
0.5959
0.0851

Forecasting
For X=f(Y,Z)
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

Predicted Y
768.9293063
814.212978
791.5480576
820.6659308
843.4973096
785.891922
822.2322408
810.3652928
848.315641
853.6108644
923.5248338
888.4174701
889.4654442
932.7810623
893.36438
940.9026185
915.9083549
939.5500721
952.7010855
900.2241437
1003.294791
928.4600722
912.1191854
973.0872626
909.6021899
909.6537288
935.4225454
966.7492117

Residuals
182.9321179
-130.2938457
-11.09208653
-20.49070578
-83.51654647
-74.82478232
-99.98234878
-110.734517
-193.4542977
-127.8489513
-137.5474074
-42.32375855
-72.80686465
-29.98978493
-24.39373609
-49.15595666
-61.80077309
-76.32476365
-6.173784026
-123.823023
-67.68595169
61.75864705
137.4533979
291.3275167
-19.43012574
129.0234672
103.3940956
39.83843638

29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62

887.193947
1029.017937
1033.849098
941.8999001
1031.668636
1061.777799
1110.851213
1167.437109
1045.79854
1054.098342
1016.981713
1047.023946
1036.768731
1108.143251
1084.906848
1139.671506
1276.564765
1195.91225
1212.695608
1271.38349
1189.35159
1268.621309
1290.402034
1303.05697
1272.059541
1344.19785
1259.645925
1265.715727
1421.353911
1295.25738
1442.900915
1521.149638
1342.228947
1381.46261

-25.55500734
16.12068985
60.13335336
-35.68147111
-7.69970355
34.04094699
-47.20683685
81.18523589
137.9671936
133.6069459
96.39415062
-49.28488366
-127.8174513
21.85025194
63.3104802
26.43911482
70.25631734
102.0064792
165.5192226
260.849717
79.99444924
132.0902294
192.9041981
21.96912952
-158.5926541
111.1407004
-34.97167633
-36.77016183
91.53605009
147.9760335
41.22907283
-11.06450831
-0.225541686
117.077238

63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96

1353.951555
1263.135512
1456.19182
1407.758868
1311.345396
1403.318548
1440.770307
1424.523713
1482.940625
1483.740448
1418.066803
1464.11088
1470.48051
1675.344417
1585.355969
1349.285076
1706.935019
1722.626407
1805.184985
1878.417755
1815.615132
1841.143289
1738.513535
1700.638757
1822.493878
1653.981449
1504.321315
1359.265443
1458.055044
1346.559676
1447.625798
1555.620443
1498.234408
1720.278382

58.83788941
-0.558945457
-81.2791128
108.8348937
-135.7802649
-131.4212961
82.34574953
44.7900165
101.8488247
60.4033394
53.49152971
0.451109146
13.98011293
-297.1863093
-46.16565661
-29.06071962
-242.6926924
-184.5029111
-33.56824532
-87.60750898
105.1717679
67.42160897
140.8705646
-136.6076285
-50.35770079
-178.7549582
22.79968491
-102.736294
-112.083255
-96.9579529
-135.8752069
-234.0830723
-35.54087969
-198.2557642

97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114

1528.885714
1511.244194
1490.416636
1626.449451
1497.258569
1586.064675
1690.147397
1433.473055
1716.322298
1637.798273
1735.404511
1727.732518
1713.106987
1702.127792
1634.134891
1724.205393
1731.858324
1882.50336

-61.30150241
-48.90743601
17.59466751
-49.23439043
20.78668247
-19.94994245
-5.327396852
85.09399363
53.24485567
62.96926372
18.16948922
52.87500794
13.09979446
36.2931928
-41.10289108
213.8716072
44.81867608
244.0746405

se regressions.

Q6: Estimate autoregressive model for each series using Specific to general approach and test its significance and forecast for remaining si
Exp
y
Jul-01
Aug-01
Sep-01
Oct-01
Nov-01
Dec-01
Jan-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Aug-02
Sep-02
Oct-02
Nov-02
Dec-02
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03

Imp
x

951.9
683.9
780.5
800.2
760.0
711.1
722.2
699.6
654.9
725.8
786.0
846.1
816.7
902.8
869.0
891.7
854.1
863.2
946.5
776.4
935.6
990.2
1049.6
1264.4
890.2
1038.7
1038.8
1006.6
861.6

z
0
951.9
683.9
780.5
800.2
760.0
711.1
722.2
699.6
654.9
725.8
786.0
846.1
816.7
902.8
869.0
891.7
854.1
863.2
946.5
776.4
935.6
990.2
1049.6
1264.4
890.2
1038.7
1038.8
1006.6

y
0
0.0
951.9
683.9
780.5
800.2
760.0
711.1
722.2
699.6
654.9
725.8
786.0
846.1
816.7
902.8
869.0
891.7
854.1
863.2
946.5
776.4
935.6
990.2
1049.6
1264.4
890.2
1038.7
1038.8

x
791.6
938.0
774.5
838.3
825.3
707.7
854.8
738.1
886.6
890.1
1119.3
975.3
927.2
969.3
880.3
1018.0
960.2
1032.6
1053.1
918.7
1270.5
1068.0
969.8
1152.6
999.8
1035.1
1077.6
1176.5
991.6

z
0
791.6
938.0
774.5
838.3
825.3
707.7
854.8
738.1
886.6
890.1
1119.3
975.3
927.2
969.3
880.3
1018.0
960.2
1032.6
1053.1
918.7
1270.5
1068.0
969.8
1152.6
999.8
1035.1
1077.6
1176.5

0
0.0
791.6
938.0
774.5
838.3
825.3
707.7
854.8
738.1
886.6
890.1
1119.3
975.3
927.2
969.3
880.3
1018.0
960.2
1032.6
1053.1
918.7
1270.5
1068.0
969.8
1152.6
999.8
1035.1
1077.6

Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06

1045.1
1094.0
906.2
1024.0
1095.8
1063.6
1248.6
1183.8
1187.7
1113.4
997.7
909.0
1130.0
1148.2
1166.1
1346.8
1297.9
1378.2
1532.2
1269.3
1400.7
1483.3
1325.0
1113.5
1455.3
1224.7
1228.9
1512.9
1443.2
1484.1
1510.1
1342.0
1498.5
1412.8

861.6
1045.1
1094.0
906.2
1024.0
1095.8
1063.6
1248.6
1183.8
1187.7
1113.4
997.7
909.0
1130.0
1148.2
1166.1
1346.8
1297.9
1378.2
1532.2
1269.3
1400.7
1483.3
1325.0
1113.5
1455.3
1224.7
1228.9
1512.9
1443.2
1484.1
1510.1
1342.0
1498.5

1006.6
861.6
1045.1
1094.0
906.2
1024.0
1095.8
1063.6
1248.6
1183.8
1187.7
1113.4
997.7
909.0
1130.0
1148.2
1166.1
1346.8
1297.9
1378.2
1532.2
1269.3
1400.7
1483.3
1325.0
1113.5
1455.3
1224.7
1228.9
1512.9
1443.2
1484.1
1510.1
1342.0

1323.8
1345.7
1139.4
1408.1
1508.7
1724.0
1861.7
1457.7
1475.2
1377.7
1456.4
1476.9
1673.7
1610.3
1783.0
2135.2
1902.6
2019.8
2229.6
1996.3
2233.8
2321.8
2325.3
2299.0
2474.7
2144.3
2210.4
2681.9
2258.6
2648.5
2986.4
2459.9
2523.6
2442.3

991.6
1323.8
1345.7
1139.4
1408.1
1508.7
1724.0
1861.7
1457.7
1475.2
1377.7
1456.4
1476.9
1673.7
1610.3
1783.0
2135.2
1902.6
2019.8
2229.6
1996.3
2233.8
2321.8
2325.3
2299.0
2474.7
2144.3
2210.4
2681.9
2258.6
2648.5
2986.4
2459.9
2523.6

1176.5
991.6
1323.8
1345.7
1139.4
1408.1
1508.7
1724.0
1861.7
1457.7
1475.2
1377.7
1456.4
1476.9
1673.7
1610.3
1783.0
2135.2
1902.6
2019.8
2229.6
1996.3
2233.8
2321.8
2325.3
2299.0
2474.7
2144.3
2210.4
2681.9
2258.6
2648.5
2986.4
2459.9

Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09

1262.6
1374.9
1516.6
1175.6
1271.9
1523.1
1469.3
1584.8
1544.1
1471.6
1464.6
1484.5
1378.2
1539.2
1320.2
1464.2
1538.1
1771.6
1790.8
1920.8
1908.6
1879.4
1564.0
1772.1
1475.2
1527.1
1256.5
1346.0
1249.6
1311.8
1321.5
1462.7
1522.0
1467.6

1412.8
1262.6
1374.9
1516.6
1175.6
1271.9
1523.1
1469.3
1584.8
1544.1
1471.6
1464.6
1484.5
1378.2
1539.2
1320.2
1464.2
1538.1
1771.6
1790.8
1920.8
1908.6
1879.4
1564.0
1772.1
1475.2
1527.1
1256.5
1346.0
1249.6
1311.8
1321.5
1462.7
1522.0

1498.5
1412.8
1262.6
1374.9
1516.6
1175.6
1271.9
1523.1
1469.3
1584.8
1544.1
1471.6
1464.6
1484.5
1378.2
1539.2
1320.2
1464.2
1538.1
1771.6
1790.8
1920.8
1908.6
1879.4
1564.0
1772.1
1475.2
1527.1
1256.5
1346.0
1249.6
1311.8
1321.5
1462.7

2131.1
2773.6
2564.2
2329.9
2572.3
2622.6
2573.5
2750.3
2796.5
2573.8
2747.4
2734.9
3384.7
3161.3
2348.8
3529.1
3657.9
3821.6
4099.9
3882.3
4023.8
3548.9
3459.5
3806.1
3460.3
2716.9
2125.4
2528.4
2122.7
2354.7
2798.4
2561.4
3339.3
2639.2

2442.3
2131.1
2773.6
2564.2
2329.9
2572.3
2622.6
2573.5
2750.3
2796.5
2573.8
2747.4
2734.9
3384.7
3161.3
2348.8
3529.1
3657.9
3821.6
4099.9
3882.3
4023.8
3548.9
3459.5
3806.1
3460.3
2716.9
2125.4
2528.4
2122.7
2354.7
2798.4
2561.4
3339.3

2523.6
2442.3
2131.1
2773.6
2564.2
2329.9
2572.3
2622.6
2573.5
2750.3
2796.5
2573.8
2747.4
2734.9
3384.7
3161.3
2348.8
3529.1
3657.9
3821.6
4099.9
3882.3
4023.8
3548.9
3459.5
3806.1
3460.3
2716.9
2125.4
2528.4
2122.7
2354.7
2798.4
2561.4

Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10

1462.3
1508.0
1577.2
1518.0
1566.1
1684.8
1518.6
1769.6
1700.8
1753.6
1780.6
1726.2
1738.4
1593.0
1938.1
1776.7
2126.6

1467.6
1462.3
1508.0
1577.2
1518.0
1566.1
1684.8
1518.6
1769.6
1700.8
1753.6
1780.6
1726.2
1738.4
1593.0
1938.1
1776.7

1522.0
1467.6
1462.3
1508.0
1577.2
1518.0
1566.1
1684.8
1518.6
1769.6
1700.8
1753.6
1780.6
1726.2
1738.4
1593.0
1938.1

AR(1) Model
Export
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.877835685
R Square
0.77059549
Adjusted R Square
0.768547235
Standard Error
161.8169512
Observations
114

ANOVA

Y=213.10+0.85Yt-1

2528.2
2419.3
2971.6
2528.4
2907.6
3320.9
2504.6
3287.0
3015.7
3363.3
3224.2
3238.8
3010.0
2780.6
3193.3
3125.0
3751.0

2639.2
2528.2
2419.3
2971.6
2528.4
2907.6
3320.9
2504.6
3287.0
3015.7
3363.3
3224.2
3238.8
3010.0
2780.6
3193.3
3125.0

3339.3
2639.2
2528.2
2419.3
2971.6
2528.4
2907.6
3320.9
2504.6
3287.0
3015.7
3363.3
3224.2
3238.8
3010.0
2780.6
3193.3

df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

1
112
113

SS
9851232.338
2932689.277
12783921.62

Coefficients
Standard Error
213.10
57.68
0.85
0.04

MS
9851232.338
26184.72569

t Stat
3.69
19.40

F
Significance F
376.2205667
1.33515E-37

P-value
0.0003
0.0000

Lower 95%
98.81
0.76

Upper 95%
327.39
0.93

AR (2) Model
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Y=187.02+0.49Yt-1+0.38Yt-2

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.898
R Square
0.806
Adjusted R Square
0.803
Standard Error
149.428
Observations
114
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

2
111
113

SS
10305448.5
2478473.1
12783921.6

Coefficients
Standard Error
187.02
53.58
0.49
0.09
0.38
0.09

MS
5152724.273
22328.58621

t Stat
3.49
5.48
4.51

F
Significance F
230.7680489
2.86659E-40

P-value
0.00069
0.00000
0.00002

Lower 95%
80.85
0.31
0.22

Upper 95%
293.19
0.67
0.55

Result
Since the values of both X variable 1 and 2 is very small in AR 2 model, so we accept AR 1 Model for forecasting.

Forecasting for following periods

Export
Import
W.Remittance
AR (1)
AR (2)
AR (1)
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11

2020.7
1930.7
1854.2
1789.2
1733.9
1686.9

3472.1
3526.6
3461.2
3441.7
3407.3
3380.1

850.3
838.2
826.7
815.7
805.3
795.4

orecast for remaining six months.

AR(1) Model
WR

Workers' Remittance

84.74
96.89
158.42
188.93
260.12
193.22
180.80
236.33
227.17
238.79
255.10
268.54
307.41
392.44
353.04
377.77
353.83
363.19
383.22
342.77
356.41
306.85
336.42
363.50
307.23
280.87
318.38
328.52
253.08

0
84.74
96.89
158.42
188.93
260.12
193.22
180.80
236.33
227.17
238.79
255.10
268.54
307.41
392.44
353.04
377.77
353.83
363.19
383.22
342.77
356.41
306.85
336.42
363.50
307.23
280.87
318.38
328.52

z
0
0.0
84.74
96.89
158.42
188.93
260.12
193.22
180.80
236.33
227.17
238.79
255.10
268.54
307.41
392.44
353.04
377.77
353.83
363.19
383.22
342.77
356.41
306.85
336.42
363.50
307.23
280.87
318.38

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.96
R Square
0.91
Adjusted R Square
0.91
Standard Error
56.74
Observations
114

Y=30.37+0.95Yt-1

ANOVA
df
1
112
113

SS
3870474.668
360576.0095
4231050.678

Coefficients
30.37
0.95

Standard Error
13.66
0.03

Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

MS
3870474.668
3219.428657

t Stat
2.22
34.67

AR (2) Model
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.963
R Square
0.928
Adjusted R Square
0.927
Standard Error
52.319

Y=25.47+0.57Yt-1+0.40Yt-2

385.71
382.31
289.49
329.67
335.31
306.00
355.01
330.51
339.70
312.94
334.80
291.81
336.38
321.38
339.29
443.70
401.00
358.30
358.98
313.14
348.41
341.10
372.50
308.81
371.24
391.32
358.13
423.56
401.47
506.57
463.87
377.01
434.84
421.74

253.08
385.71
382.31
289.49
329.67
335.31
306.00
355.01
330.51
339.70
312.94
334.80
291.81
336.38
321.38
339.29
443.70
401.00
358.30
358.98
313.14
348.41
341.10
372.50
308.81
371.24
391.32
358.13
423.56
401.47
506.57
463.87
377.01
434.84

328.52
253.08
385.71
382.31
289.49
329.67
335.31
306.00
355.01
330.51
339.70
312.94
334.80
291.81
336.38
321.38
339.29
443.70
401.00
358.30
358.98
313.14
348.41
341.10
372.50
308.81
371.24
391.32
358.13
423.56
401.47
506.57
463.87
377.01

Observations

114

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

2
111
113

SS
3927212
303838
4231051

Coefficients
25.47
0.57
0.40

Standard Error
12.645
0.087
0.087

MS
1963606
2737

t Stat
2.014
6.524
4.553

Result
Since the values of both X variable 1 and 2 is very small in AR 2 model, so we accept AR 1

410.61
448.61
475.21
391.33
457.18
520.24
513.35
537.98
505.55
495.69
489.51
516.05
580.24
505.58
479.26
557.07
502.76
602.21
590.71
584.75
547.41
627.21
592.30
660.35
466.13
620.52
673.50
637.30
641.32
739.43
697.52
720.68
735.17
744.85

421.74
410.61
448.61
475.21
391.33
457.18
520.24
513.35
537.98
505.55
495.69
489.51
516.05
580.24
505.58
479.26
557.07
502.76
602.21
590.71
584.75
547.41
627.21
592.30
660.35
466.13
620.52
673.50
637.30
641.32
739.43
697.52
720.68
735.17

434.84
421.74
410.61
448.61
475.21
391.33
457.18
520.24
513.35
537.98
505.55
495.69
489.51
516.05
580.24
505.58
479.26
557.07
502.76
602.21
590.71
584.75
547.41
627.21
592.30
660.35
466.13
620.52
673.50
637.30
641.32
739.43
697.52
720.68

780.53
806.12
758.29
742.79
697.60
667.90
589.03
763.72
755.77
757.86
841.44
791.18
933.06
922.06
855.11
926.89
863.13

744.85
780.53
806.12
758.29
742.79
697.60
667.90
589.03
763.72
755.77
757.86
841.44
791.18
933.06
922.06
855.11
926.89

735.17
744.85
780.53
806.12
758.29
742.79
697.60
667.90
589.03
763.72
755.77
757.86
841.44
791.18
933.06
922.06
855.11

AR(1) Model
Import
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.936
R Square
0.877
Adjusted R Square
0.876
Standard Error
328.912
Observations
114

ANOVA

Y=188.5+0.9Yt-1

df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

1
112
113

SS
86278300.56
12116516.94
98394817.5

Coefficients Standard Error

188.5
76.4
0.9
0.0

MS
86278300.56
108183.187

t Stat
2.5
28.2

F
797.5204184

Significance F
9.26991E-53

P-value
0.0151
0.0000

Lower 95%
37.2
0.9

AR (2) Model
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Y=165.23+0.59Yt-1+0.35Yt-2

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.944
R Square
0.892
Adjusted R Square
0.890
Standard Error
309.402
Observations
114
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2

2
111
113

SS
87768852
10625966
98394818

Coefficients Standard Error

165.23
72.08
0.59
0.09
0.35
0.09

MS
43884425.9
95729.4

t Stat

F
458.422

P-value
2.29
6.54
3.95

0.024
0.000
0.000

Significance F
2.25677E-54

Lower 95%
22.40
0.41
0.17

Result
Since the value of X variable 1 is very small in AR 1 model, so we accept AR 2 model for forecasting

F
Significance F
1202.224084 1.01408E-61

P-value
Lower 95%
0.03
3.30
0.00
0.90

47+0.57Yt-1+0.40Yt-2

Upper 95%
57.45
1.00

F
Significance F
717.3557196 3.30216E-64

P-value
Lower 95%
0.046
0.414
0.000
0.397
0.000
0.225

Upper 95%
50.528
0.743
0.572

AR 2 model, so we accept AR 1 Model for forecasting.

Upper 95%
339.8
1.0

Upper 95%
308.07
0.77
0.53

Q7: Calculate 3 months, 5months, 7 months and 12 months moving average of the given series and forecast for the remaining Six months.
3 Months Moving Average
Jul-01
Aug-01
Sep-01
Oct-01
Nov-01
Dec-01
Jan-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Aug-02
Sep-02
Oct-02
Nov-02
Dec-02
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03

Exp

Imp

WR

Exp

951.9
683.9
780.5
800.2
760.0
711.1
722.2
699.6
654.9
725.8
786.0
846.1
816.7
902.8
869.0
891.7
854.1
863.2
946.5
776.4
935.6
990.2
1049.6
1264.4
890.2
1038.7
1038.8
1006.6
861.6

791.6
938.0
774.5
838.3
825.3
707.7
854.8
738.1
886.6
890.1
1119.3
975.3
927.2
969.3
880.3
1018.0
960.2
1032.6
1053.1
918.7
1270.5
1068.0
969.8
1152.6
999.8
1035.1
1077.6
1176.5
991.6

84.74
96.89
158.42
188.93
260.12
193.22
180.80
236.33
227.17
238.79
255.10
268.54
307.41
392.44
353.04
377.77
353.83
363.19
383.22
342.77
356.41
306.85
336.42
363.50
307.23
280.87
318.38
328.52
253.08

805.4
754.9
780.2
757.1
731.1
711.0
692.2
693.4
722.2
785.9
816.2
855.2
862.8
887.8
871.6
869.7
888.0
862.1
886.2
900.7
991.8
1101.4
1068.1
1064.4
989.2
1028.0
969.0

Imp

834.69
850.26
812.70
790.45
795.94
766.87
826.47
838.23
965.31
994.90
1007.29
957.27
925.60
955.86
952.84
1003.60
1015.30
1001.45
1080.75
1085.71
1102.77
1063.47
1040.73
1062.49
1037.49
1096.41
1081.89

5 Months Moving Average

WR

Exp

113.35
148.08
202.49
214.09
211.38
203.45
214.77
234.10
240.35
254.14
277.02
322.80
350.96
374.42
361.55
364.93
366.75
363.06
360.80
335.34
333.23
335.59
335.72
317.20
302.16
309.26
299.99

795.3
747.1
754.8
738.6
709.6
702.7
717.7
742.5
765.9
815.5
844.1
865.3
866.9
876.2
884.9
866.4
875.2
902.4
939.7
1003.2
1026.0
1046.6
1056.3
1047.7
967.2

Imp

833.54
816.76
800.12
792.84
802.49
815.44
897.76
921.87
959.70
976.24
974.29
954.02
951.00
972.08
988.84
996.51
1047.01
1068.56
1056.01
1075.91
1092.13
1045.06
1046.98
1088.32
1056.11

WR

157.82
179.516
196.298
211.88
219.528
215.262
227.638
245.186
259.402
292.456
315.306
339.84
356.898
368.054
366.21
364.156
359.884
350.488
345.134
341.19
334.082
318.974
321.28
319.7
297.616

Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06

1045.1
1094.0
906.2
1024.0
1095.8
1063.6
1248.6
1183.8
1187.7
1113.4
997.7
909.0
1130.0
1148.2
1166.1
1346.8
1297.9
1378.2
1532.2
1269.3
1400.7
1483.3
1325.0
1113.5
1455.3
1224.7
1228.9
1512.9
1443.2
1484.1
1510.1
1342.0
1498.5
1412.8

1323.8
1345.7
1139.4
1408.1
1508.7
1724.0
1861.7
1457.7
1475.2
1377.7
1456.4
1476.9
1673.7
1610.3
1783.0
2135.2
1902.6
2019.8
2229.6
1996.3
2233.8
2321.8
2325.3
2299.0
2474.7
2144.3
2210.4
2681.9
2258.6
2648.5
2986.4
2459.9
2523.6
2442.3

385.71
382.31
289.49
329.67
335.31
306.00
355.01
330.51
339.70
312.94
334.80
291.81
336.38
321.38
339.29
443.70
401.00
358.30
358.98
313.14
348.41
341.10
372.50
308.81
371.24
391.32
358.13
423.56
401.47
506.57
463.87
377.01
434.84
421.74

971.1
1000.3
1015.1
1008.1
1008.7
1061.1
1136.0
1165.3
1206.7
1161.6
1099.6
1006.7
1012.2
1062.4
1148.1
1220.4
1270.3
1341.0
1402.8
1393.3
1400.8
1384.5
1403.0
1307.3
1297.9
1264.5
1303.0
1322.2
1395.0
1480.1
1479.1
1445.4
1450.2
1417.8

1163.95
1220.33
1269.61
1297.71
1352.04
1546.90
1698.11
1681.12
1598.21
1436.86
1436.42
1436.98
1535.66
1586.97
1689.00
1842.82
1940.26
2019.19
2050.68
2081.91
2153.25
2183.96
2293.64
2315.37
2366.34
2306.02
2276.49
2345.55
2383.66
2529.68
2631.18
2698.28
2656.66
2475.30

322.44
340.37
352.50
333.82
318.16
323.66
332.11
330.51
341.74
327.72
329.15
313.18
321.00
316.52
332.35
368.12
394.66
401.00
372.76
343.47
340.18
334.22
354.00
340.80
350.85
357.12
373.56
391.00
394.39
443.87
457.30
449.15
425.24
411.20

998.2
1009.2
982.7
986.2
1033.0
1036.7
1067.7
1123.2
1155.9
1159.4
1146.2
1078.3
1067.6
1059.7
1070.2
1140.0
1217.8
1267.5
1344.3
1364.9
1375.7
1412.8
1402.1
1318.4
1355.6
1320.4
1269.5
1307.1
1373.0
1378.8
1435.9
1458.5
1455.6
1449.5

1120.91
1183.02
1195.38
1241.69
1345.11
1425.15
1528.36
1592.02
1605.45
1579.25
1525.73
1448.77
1491.97
1518.99
1600.05
1735.82
1820.95
1890.18
2014.05
2056.70
2076.43
2160.27
2221.37
2235.24
2330.93
2313.03
2290.76
2362.07
2354.00
2388.76
2557.17
2607.08
2575.42
2612.16

313.312
333.6
327.822
328.052
344.498
328.556
323.096
331.3
333.306
328.832
334.592
321.952
323.126
319.462
324.732
346.512
368.35
372.734
380.254
375.024
355.966
343.986
346.826
336.792
348.412
356.994
360.4
370.612
389.144
416.21
430.72
434.496
436.752
440.806

Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09

1262.6
1374.9
1516.6
1175.6
1271.9
1523.1
1469.3
1584.8
1544.1
1471.6
1464.6
1484.5
1378.2
1539.2
1320.2
1464.2
1538.1
1771.6
1790.8
1920.8
1908.6
1879.4
1564.0
1772.1
1475.2
1527.1
1256.5
1346.0
1249.6
1311.8
1321.5
1462.7
1522.0
1467.6

2131.1
2773.6
2564.2
2329.9
2572.3
2622.6
2573.5
2750.3
2796.5
2573.8
2747.4
2734.9
3384.7
3161.3
2348.8
3529.1
3657.9
3821.6
4099.9
3882.3
4023.8
3548.9
3459.5
3806.1
3460.3
2716.9
2125.4
2528.4
2122.7
2354.7
2798.4
2561.4
3339.3
2639.2

410.61
448.61
475.21
391.33
457.18
520.24
513.35
537.98
505.55
495.69
489.51
516.05
580.24
505.58
479.26
557.07
502.76
602.21
590.71
584.75
547.41
627.21
592.30
660.35
466.13
620.52
673.50
637.30
641.32
739.43
697.52
720.68
735.17
744.85

1391.3
1350.1
1384.7
1355.7
1321.4
1323.5
1421.4
1525.7
1532.7
1533.5
1493.4
1473.5
1442.4
1467.3
1412.5
1441.2
1440.9
1591.3
1700.2
1827.7
1873.4
1902.9
1784.0
1738.5
1603.8
1591.5
1419.6
1376.5
1284.0
1302.4
1294.3
1365.3
1435.4
1484.1

2365.69
2449.00
2489.61
2555.89
2488.79
2508.27
2589.44
2648.79
2706.75
2706.88
2705.91
2685.36
2955.66
3093.62
2964.94
3013.05
3178.59
3669.52
3859.79
3934.60
4002.02
3818.34
3677.38
3604.82
3575.31
3327.80
2767.56
2456.93
2258.86
2335.28
2425.26
2571.48
2899.69
2846.64

422.40
426.99
444.81
438.38
441.24
456.25
496.92
523.86
518.96
513.07
496.92
500.42
528.60
533.96
521.69
513.97
513.03
554.01
565.23
592.56
574.29
586.46
588.97
626.62
572.93
582.33
586.72
643.77
650.71
672.68
692.76
719.21
717.79
733.57

1405.2
1378.2
1413.1
1348.5
1320.3
1372.4
1391.3
1404.9
1478.7
1518.6
1506.9
1509.9
1468.6
1467.6
1437.3
1437.3
1448.0
1526.7
1577.0
1697.1
1786.0
1854.2
1812.7
1809.0
1719.9
1643.6
1519.0
1475.4
1370.9
1338.2
1297.1
1338.3
1373.5
1417.1

2508.68
2466.11
2486.96
2448.22
2474.21
2572.50
2532.48
2569.72
2663.02
2663.34
2688.30
2720.58
2847.46
2920.42
2875.42
3031.75
3216.36
3303.73
3491.45
3798.16
3897.11
3875.30
3802.87
3744.13
3659.72
3398.34
3113.65
2927.45
2590.77
2369.64
2385.93
2473.12
2635.30
2738.59

421.614
418.562
438.202
429.5
436.588
458.514
471.462
484.016
506.86
514.562
508.416
508.956
517.408
517.414
514.128
527.64
524.982
529.376
546.402
567.5
565.568
590.458
588.476
602.404
578.68
593.302
602.56
611.56
607.754
662.414
677.814
687.25
706.824
727.53

Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11

1462.3
1508.0
1577.2
1518.0
1566.1
1684.8
1518.6
1769.6
1700.8
1753.6
1780.6
1726.2
1738.4
1593.0
1938.1
1776.7
2126.6

2528.2
2419.3
2971.6
2528.4
2907.6
3320.9
2504.6
3287.0
3015.7
3363.3
3224.2
3238.8
3010.0
2780.6
3193.3
3125.0
3751.0

780.53
806.12
758.29
742.79
697.60
667.90
589.03
763.72
755.77
757.86
841.44
791.18
933.06
922.06
855.11
926.89
863.13

1484.0
1479.3
1515.9
1534.4
1553.8
1589.7
1589.8
1657.7
1663.0
1741.3
1745.0
1753.5
1748.4
1685.9
1756.5
1769.3
1947.1
1189.9
1186.1
1222.7
1260.8
1339.6
1388.0

2835.58
2528.92
2639.71
2639.76
2802.50
2918.95
2911.01
3037.49
2935.75
3222.00
3201.08
3275.45
3157.69
3009.81
2994.65
3032.98
3356.44
1985.5
1982.3
2104.9
2156.7
2282.3
2360.9

753.52
777.17
781.65
769.07
732.89
702.76
651.51
673.55
702.84
759.12
785.02
796.83
855.23
882.10
903.41
901.35
881.71
432.3
431.3
447.2
459.4
481.9
483.1

1447.2
1484.5
1507.4
1506.6
1526.3
1570.8
1573.0
1611.4
1648.0
1685.5
1704.6
1746.1
1739.9
1718.4
1755.3
1754.5
1834.6
1206.8
1182.2
1207.4
1238.0
1274.0
1326.2

2773.30
2697.49
2779.52
2617.34
2671.01
2829.54
2846.60
2909.69
3007.14
3098.29
3078.96
3225.81
3170.41
3123.40
3089.40
3069.55
3171.99
2004.6
2000.4
2038.3
2091.2
2177.5
2263.5

735.75
757.47
764.992
766.516
757.066
734.54
691.1221
692.208
694.804
706.8566
741.5648
781.9946
815.8628
849.1208
868.5702
885.66
900.05
430.6
427.7
440.8
450.9
459.5
471.3

he remaining Six months.

7 Months Moving Average
Exp

772.82
736.78
732.63
724.82
722.79
735.09
750.18
775.97
800.16
834.00
852.34
863.37
877.72
871.97
876.66
893.98
916.52
975.14
978.99
992.15
1029.64
1039.78
1021.41

Imp

818.60
810.95
803.61
820.12
860.26
881.70
913.05
929.40
949.72
968.50
978.52
966.13
977.24
976.02
1019.05
1045.86
1038.98
1066.47
1061.77
1059.21
1081.91
1068.48
1057.57

12 Months Moving Average

WR

Exp

166.16
187.82
206.43
217.91
227.36
228.56
244.88
275.11
291.78
313.30
329.73
345.17
361.56
366.61
361.46
354.86
348.96
350.34
342.34
327.72
324.24
320.25
312.57

760.17
748.90
767.14
774.52
782.15
789.99
802.67
821.36
827.76
851.16
873.19
895.16
930.02
936.15
947.47
961.62
971.19
971.82

Imp

861.63
872.93
875.54
884.36
899.33
910.57
937.64
954.17
969.22
1001.21
1016.04
1003.58
1018.35
1024.40
1029.89
1046.33
1059.54
1062.15

WR

199.09
217.64
242.27
258.49
274.23
282.04
296.20
313.07
321.94
332.71
338.38
345.16
353.07
353.06
343.76
340.87
336.77
328.37

1020.78
996.43
998.72
996.62
1004.76
1012.92
1068.20
1088.00
1101.39
1130.99
1127.24
1100.54
1110.02
1095.68
1093.16
1115.89
1142.25
1196.60
1285.64
1305.55
1341.62
1386.94
1383.82
1357.47
1368.49
1324.55
1318.78
1334.81
1329.08
1351.81
1408.47
1392.28
1431.40
1457.67

1108.13
1135.71
1155.66
1208.94
1270.52
1348.73
1473.03
1492.16
1510.67
1544.71
1551.61
1547.08
1539.90
1503.98
1550.45
1644.73
1719.72
1800.21
1907.74
1953.83
2042.91
2119.87
2147.03
2203.67
2268.65
2256.46
2287.06
2351.07
2342.05
2388.21
2486.41
2484.30
2538.49
2571.62

319.61
322.30
319.77
326.74
329.16
325.94
340.50
332.61
326.53
329.88
330.61
324.40
328.74
323.93
325.19
340.04
352.62
355.98
365.58
362.26
366.12
366.38
356.20
343.03
344.88
349.50
355.93
366.67
375.29
394.44
416.59
417.42
423.64
432.72

986.98
999.27
1010.09
1017.45
1026.25
1027.42
1026.11
1050.57
1062.99
1069.21
1068.47
1072.41
1079.48
1084.00
1105.66
1132.56
1149.41
1175.62
1199.25
1206.39
1224.14
1254.96
1282.24
1299.28
1326.39
1332.76
1338.00
1351.84
1363.95
1372.78
1370.93
1376.98
1385.14
1379.26

1086.41
1110.80
1129.19
1140.65
1177.38
1240.22
1299.31
1337.48
1374.15
1399.16
1422.48
1462.92
1492.08
1514.14
1567.77
1628.36
1661.19
1685.85
1716.51
1761.39
1824.61
1903.28
1975.69
2044.20
2110.95
2155.46
2191.07
2236.63
2266.31
2318.69
2381.76
2420.40
2444.55
2454.59

330.25
330.17
325.73
323.50
325.87
323.34
322.63
324.57
329.47
329.02
329.54
332.77
328.66
323.58
327.73
337.24
342.71
347.07
347.40
345.95
346.68
349.02
352.17
353.58
356.49
362.32
363.89
362.21
362.25
374.60
383.34
388.67
395.87
402.59

1421.91
1412.15
1416.79
1369.00
1358.98
1362.49
1370.57
1416.60
1440.77
1434.34
1475.63
1505.99
1485.28
1495.27
1457.47
1446.06
1455.57
1499.43
1543.20
1620.71
1673.48
1753.36
1767.62
1801.05
1758.71
1721.04
1626.14
1545.77
1455.80
1419.76
1355.39
1353.60
1352.87
1383.02

2492.94
2566.49
2554.45
2460.67
2476.71
2490.85
2509.58
2598.04
2601.32
2602.70
2662.34
2685.56
2794.44
2878.41
2821.06
2925.71
3080.58
3234.03
3429.04
3500.12
3623.35
3794.78
3784.83
3806.01
3754.40
3556.84
3305.85
3092.22
2888.49
2730.67
2586.70
2458.28
2547.19
2620.59

430.87
437.61
433.13
422.76
434.22
446.42
459.50
477.70
485.83
488.76
502.79
511.20
519.77
518.66
510.27
517.63
518.64
534.74
545.40
546.05
552.02
573.16
578.19
600.71
581.27
585.52
598.20
611.04
613.06
634.08
639.39
675.75
692.13
702.32

1374.06
1395.84
1400.95
1396.86
1400.43
1401.29
1403.46
1411.85
1414.69
1425.48
1422.65
1428.62
1438.26
1451.95
1435.58
1459.64
1481.82
1502.53
1529.32
1557.32
1587.69
1621.68
1629.97
1653.94
1662.03
1661.02
1655.71
1645.86
1621.82
1583.49
1544.39
1506.21
1474.00
1439.68

2438.41
2477.95
2485.41
2500.88
2531.03
2526.09
2552.32
2560.81
2544.98
2554.47
2573.12
2597.50
2701.97
2734.28
2716.33
2816.26
2906.73
3006.64
3133.85
3228.18
3330.46
3411.71
3471.05
3560.32
3566.62
3529.59
3510.98
3427.59
3299.66
3177.42
3068.96
2958.88
2901.84
2826.03

405.76
417.41
426.08
426.08
434.33
442.39
451.71
454.33
457.80
467.69
472.25
480.11
494.25
498.99
499.33
513.14
516.94
523.77
530.22
534.12
537.60
548.56
557.13
569.15
559.65
569.22
585.41
592.10
603.64
615.08
623.98
635.31
650.95
660.76

1399.65
1436.56
1474.49
1502.56
1517.33
1540.59
1547.87
1591.76
1619.30
1644.49
1682.00
1704.87
1712.53
1723.17
1747.24
1758.09
1811.37
1218.7
1204.2
1214.5
1220.4
1248.5
1291.3

2620.56
2662.93
2751.06
2712.49
2761.94
2759.31
2740.08
2848.47
2933.67
2989.63
3089.04
3136.36
3091.95
3131.38
3118.00
3133.62
3189.00
1992.2
1996.2
2036.8
2073.0
2109.2
2186.2

722.79
746.33
749.02
755.49
752.19
742.58
720.32
717.92
710.73
710.67
724.76
738.13
776.01
823.58
836.64
861.09
876.12
424.2
426.8
437.2
442.8
451.4
461.8

1431.21
1409.20
1417.70
1416.94
1442.74
1470.98
1493.39
1531.54
1563.15
1587.39
1608.93
1630.49
1653.49
1660.58
1690.65
1712.20
1758.91
1276.3
1284.9
1296.5
1306.6
1316.7
1263.5

2748.43
2632.86
2592.13
2576.42
2641.60
2707.64
2739.46
2817.15
2835.26
2902.09
2892.50
2942.46
2982.61
3012.72
3031.20
3080.92
3151.20
2148.4
2166.8
2191.8
2213.9
2237.3
2105.3

676.44
688.59
712.94
723.13
725.13
727.68
723.33
725.35
730.20
733.30
742.16
746.02
758.73
768.39
776.46
791.80
805.60
448.5
452.2
457.8
463.2
468.4
443.8