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Spiros Lakkos1, Andreas Hadjiprocopis2, Richard Comley1, Peter Smith2 City University, Centre for Information Engineering(1), Department of Computer Science(2), Northampton Square, London, EC1V 0HB, UK
Introduction
It has been reported that transient variations of the electrotelluric eld - called Seismic Electric Signals (SES) - are observed before an earthquake. The study of the physical properties of these signals is used for the determination of the parameters (epicentre and magnitude) of an impending event 1]. The occurrence of these precursors varies from a few hours to a few days before the earthquake and have a duration of one minute to a few hours. These signals appear as a transient change of the potential di erence measured between two electrodes (up to a few tenths of V/m) (Figure 1) depending on the earthquake magnitude, Ms, the epicentre, local geophysical inhomogeneities, source characteristics and travel path. The components of the electric eld are measured in two perpendicular directions (East-West and North-South) using dipoles with lengths varying from a few tenths of meters to a couple of kilometers. Very often, noise obstructs the clarity of SES. It can be classi ed into three categories depending on the nature of the cause: electrochemical, magnetotelluric and cultural. By using various techniques 9], 10] to eliminate the noise from the electrotelluric eld measurements and by applying 1
certain, well de ned, criteria 2], the detection of SES is achieved. The study of the physical properties of SES and their correlation to the impending seismic activity leads to the construction of an empirical selectivity map for a monitoring station. Selectivity is de ned as the sensitivity of a station to signals from a restricted number of seismic areas while remaining insensitive to SES from other areas 3]. In this paper a di erent approach is suggested for the construction of the selectivity maps based on the use of Arti cial Neural Networks.
The Delta-Bar-Delta 16] training algorithm was employed. The training data was collected by a monitoring station based at Ioannina (western Greece) and presented in 1 to 8]. Due to its small size, expansion of the original set was necessary by addition of a small amount of Gaussian noise to each of the training vectors. The size of the data set has been increased by a factor of ve, (Figure 3). The mapping produced with the expanded data set works better since the network now has a better idea of what the input surface looks like and any misinterpretations due to restricted input data are avoided. Although the overall output error in this case increases, a continuous and smooth output is obtained, moreover, meaningless output values are avoided. After convergence, the network can be used to predict impending earthquakes and construct the selectivity map for a monitoring station.
sensitive to that station possibly propagate, (Figure 5). Similarly, by discarding the epicentre information and plotting only the earthquake magnitude versus one component of the input vectors, while the other is kept constant, the relationship between the magnitude of the earthquake and the SES could be obtained, (Figure 6).
Earthquake Prediction
[Ms]
Eq. Mag.
[o]
[o]
Latitude
Longitude
ENS
EEW
means of ANN.
0.04
0.02
0.01
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03 -0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
Sensitivity_Area High_Sensitivity_Area
Latitude N[o]
Ens=+0.018mV/m
38
Ens=-0.026mV/m
37.5 19.6
19.8
20
20.2
20.8
21
21.2
21.4
EEW constant.
7 Ms Ex.Data 6.5
5.5
4.5
4 -0.03
-0.025
-0.02
-0.015
-0.01
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
References
1] Varotsos P. and Alexopoulos K.: Physical Properties of the Variation of the Electric Field of the Earth Preceding Earthquakes I and II, Techtonophysics, vol 110, (1984). 2] Varotsos P. and Lazaridou M.: Latest Aspects of Earthquake Prediction in Greece based on Seismic Electric Signals, Techtonophysics, vol.188 (1991). 3] Varotsos P., Alexopoulos K. and Lazaridou M.: Latest Aspects of Earthquake Prediction in Greece based on Seismic Electric Signals II, Techtonophysics (1993). 4] Varotsos P., Alexopoulos K., Lazaridou M., Nagao T.: Earthquake predictions issued in Greece by seismic electric signals since February 6, 1990, Techtonophysics (1993). 5] Varotsos P., Alexopoulos K., Lazaridou M.: Recent earthquake predictions issued by the VAN-network in Greece. Period: Feb. 6, 1990 - May 31, 1991, submitted in Techtonophysics. 6] Shnirman M., Schreider S., Dmitrieva O.: Statistical evaluation of the VAN predictions issued during the period 1987-1989, Techtonophysics (1993). 7] Dologlou E.: A three year continuous sample of o cially documented predictions issued in Greece using the VAN method: 1987-1989 Techtonophysics (1993). 8] Eftaxias K., Hadjicontis: Information material on earthquake prediction in Greece by means of seismic electric signals, Int. Conf. Measurement and Theoretical Models of the earth's electric eld variations related to earthquakes, Feb. 6-8 Athens). 9] Chouliaras G. and Rasmussen T.M.: The Application of the Magnetotelluric Impedance Tensors to Earthquake Prediction Research in Greece, Techtonophysics, vol. 152 (1988). 8
10] Lakkos S. and Comley R.A.: An Adaptive System for the Estimation of the Magnetotelluric Impedance Tensor and its Application in Earthquake Prediction, International Proceedings of the International Symposium of Information Theory and Applications, ISITA '92, Singapore (1992). 11] McCullough W.S. and Pitts W.: A Logical Calculus of the Ideas Immanent in Nervous Activity, Bull. Math. Biophys. 5, 115-133 (1943). 12] Rosenblatt F.: Principles of Neurodynamics: Perceptrons and the Theory of Brain Mechanisms, Spartan Books, New York (1962). 13] Widrow B. and Ho M.E.: Adaptive Switching Networks, IRE Wescon Convention Record (1961). 14] Freeman J.: Neural Networks: Theory and Practice, Addison-Wesley (1991). 15] Hecht-Nielsen R.: Neurocomputing, Addison{Wesley (1990). 16] Drew Van Camp: The XERION Neural Network Simulator Users Guide, University of Toronto (1993).