BZE welcomes Doctors for the Environment

Thursday 19 September
Murali Nathan & Chitrani Perez

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Intro Slide
Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Plan
A plan to repower Australia with 100% renewable energy in 10 years
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Climate change is a problem of unprecedented scale and consequence Use of fossil fuels is the biggest cause of the problem The ZCA Stationary Energy Plan provides easy solutions to the problem of increasing need for energy from a growing population while eliminating GHG emissions

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Business As Usual Global Temperature Increase

2Guardrail Limit

The difference between 2 & 4 is human civilisation

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What kind of future do we need to prepare for ?

A business as usual policy could see a 4 degree rise in temperatures by 2060. On the hottest days, the temperatures could be : 6-8 degrees higher than the mean in China 8-10 degrees in Europe and 10-12 degrees in New York Such unprecedented increases would give rise to a host of issues about how the ageing infrastructure of our cities could deliver even survival-level services. By 2100 the planet would become unliveable in most places.

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...if Australia builds up its coal exports as currently planned, it would produce 30% of the carbon needed to push global warming beyond two degrees. By 2020 the countrys coal burnt abroad will be producing three times as much CO2 as all the countrys cars and factories and homes; by 2025, four times. And so on.
Bill McKibben Do the math 2013

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Per Capita Global Carbon Budget 2010-2050

2/3 of a chance of keeping global warming < 2oC Maximum CO2 next 40 years: 750 billion tonnes = allocation of 85 tonnes for each person in the world between 2010 and 2050 Australia emits >20 tonnes CO2 per Australian resident per annum Business as usual: By 2050: >800 tonnes per person. I.E. Our 85 tonnes share p.p. emitted in 4 years. MUST reduce emissions to ZERO in 10 years so not to exceed our share.
Source: Derived from paper by Prof HJ Schellnhuber, Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Science, Potsdam, Germany bze.org.au

Per Capita Global Carbon Budget 2010-2050

USA Rate of emissions by nation (tonnes of CO2 per capita per year) Quota: Global absolute maximum of 85 tonnes per person before 2050

Germany

China

Burkina Faso

India

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Head of the Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC in 2008, European Union and other bodies talked about a 350 ppm atmospheric carbon as a desirable target to aim for. In 2013 the levels breached 400ppm More carbon in the atmosphere creates a negative feedback loop A vast expanse of permafrost in Siberia and Alaska has started to thaw for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago, marked in dark blue on the map. It is caused by the recent warming in local temperature. Peat bogs cover an area of a million square miles (or almost a quarter of the earth's land surface) to a depth of 25 meters. Started to melt in the last 4 years with the potential to release vast quantities of methane trapped by ice below the surface - billions of tonnes of methane. World-wide, peat bogs store at least two trillion tons of CO2. This is equivalent to a century of emissions from fossil fuels. This is one of the most feared tipping points

http://www.planetextinction.com
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Intro Slide
Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Plan
A plan to repower Australia with 100% renewable energy in 10 years
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Stationary Energy
Stationary energy is the supply of electricity to fixed outlet points; it is what we plug our appliances into and run our industry from. The ZCA Stationary Energy Plan is a detailed, fully costed, resourced model to repower Australia with 100% renewable energy in 10 years

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Zero Carbon Australia Plan (ZCA) Guiding Principles

Blueprint for a Zero Carbon Australia in 10 years Fully accept latest climate science evidence Specifies only Commercial-Off-The-Shelf technology Maintain or enhance Australias:
Energy Supply security and reliability Food and water security Standard of living
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Traditional Power Generation

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Concentrated Solar Thermal with Storage

CENTRAL RECEIVER (TOWER)

565oC

565oC 290oC

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Heliostat

Torresol Gemasolar in full operation

Heliostat Field

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Solid salt

Hot & Cold Tanks exterior view

Thermal Storage

Interior of tank under construction

Spain 2011 Torresol Gemasolar 20MW. 15h storage Only the beginning

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Brightsource and Abengoa are currently working on a 500 megawatts concentrated solar project in California that would be composed of twin 250-megawatt units with what should be the tallest solar towers in the world
Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a major exporter of oil and gas. Abu Dhabi is also a leader in renewables. Their Shams Power Company in early 2013 started operating the 100MW Shams 1 concentrated solar power (CSP) station bze.org.au

World Solar Thermal growth

Globally 17.54GW built or under development
USA 8.67GW Spain 4.46GW China 2.5GW

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World Wind Power growth

Global investment increased 30% p.a. in last decade China target 150 GW wind by 2020: (nearly 68 GW by June 2012) Denmark 50% wind by 2025 (Already 22% in 2011) Sweden 4,000 MW 1100 Enercon Turbines

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Global Wind Power growth

China U.S. Spain Canada Portugal

75,000 MW (2012) 60,000 MW 23,000 MW 6,200 MW 4,500 MW

Target:

150,000 MW by 2020

~ 28% annual growth ~ 7.5% annual growth ~ ~ 25% annual growth ~ 13% annual growth tripled since 2007

Germany 31,000 MW

World-wide 282,000 MW (2012)

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In July 2013 the world's biggest offshore wind farm opened in the UK (175 turbines, 630MW) The UK targets 16GW of offshore wind power by 2020, a huge increase from the 3.3GW of installed capacity that they have now

- London Array

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"GWEC Global Wind Statistics 2011" Global Wind Energy Commission. Retrieved 15 March 2012.

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100% Renewable Energy for Australia - three main components

Concentrated solar thermal power

Wind power

Upgraded electricity grid

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Concentrated solar thermal power

X 17 = 1 Solar region

Module 220MW
Sunlab 220

3500MW capacity

12 = 60% of Australias Stationary Energy delivered by Solar Thermal with storagebze.org.au

Wind power
Module 7.5MW
Enercon E-126

330 = 1 Wind region 2500MW capacity

Turbine

23 = 40% of Australias Stationary Energy delivered by Wind bze.org.au

100% Renewable Stationary Energy

~2%
Backup with bio-mass and hydro

~60%
Concentrated Solar Thermal with storage

~40%
Large scale wind farms

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Existing grid Solar Region Renewable Australias Wind region New HVDC line New HVAC line

Australia's renewable energy Energy Gridgrid: 2020 2020

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Australia Best Solar Resource in the World

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30 year Cost to Economy all energy

BUSINESS AS USUAL

ZCA
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What about the jobs lost in the mining and oil industries?
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Labour Requirements

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30 years

507,000 tonnes CO2 saved

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How much will it cost? Can we afford it?

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Solar Thermal Cost Reduction

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Safe Climate: 3% of GDP for 10 years

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ZCA per year and Australias GDP

ZCA AUS GDP (2009)

ZCA $37Bn for 10 years Australian Gambling 2009 $20Bn Australian Insurance 2009 $38Bn

1200

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30 year Cost to Economy all energy

BUSINESS AS USUAL

ZCA
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Why Coal Seam Gas is not a great idea

1.Methane is atleast 20 times more damaging than carbon di-oxide.

2.Leakages from extraction, processing, transport and delivery to point of use can be as much as 12%
3.Extraction involves potentially hazardous methods such as fracking Fracking is the process of pumping water, sand and a cocktail of different chemicals, underground at huge pressure in order to fracture open the coal seam and allow the gas to escape. Fracking uses massive amounts of water a scarce resource in Australia. 11 million litres per well. Queensland alone has issued licences for 40,000 wells. Nationwide nearly a 100,000 wells could be in operation by 2020. CSG extraction damages prime agricultural land beyond repair

Fracking creates micro-seismic events (mini earthquakes), which cause the connection of naturally separated geological layers. This process can contaminate ground water with hazardous chemicals.
Australia does not require companies to list the chemicals they use in fracking fluids. However, experience in the USA, Queensland and NSW shows the use of known carcinogens as well as other chemicals including: ethylene glycol, which affects kidney function, the lungs and heart; the BTEX group (Benzene, Toluene, Ethyl Benzene and Xylene), which affect bone marrow, the blood system and cause leukaemia; and other toxins that affect hormone regulation and the reproductive system-http://quitcoal.org.au/fracking-in-victoria/

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Zero Carbon Australia - Conclusion

Will secure our climate and future Technically doable
Uses commercially available technologies

Fully Resourced
We have the materials Jobs rich

Fully Costed
3% of GDP for 10 years & 60% saving over BAU in 30 years
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