Oakland Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce Breakfast October 2, 2013

Methodology
2

Telephone survey of Likely November 2014 voters in Oakland 500 completed interviews City-wide margin of error of +/- 4.73 percentage points Oversampling in Council Districts 2, 4, & 6 in order to reach a sample size of 95 in each of these districts

As with any opinion research, the release of selected figures from this report without the analysis that explains their meaning would be damaging to EMC. Therefore, EMC reserves the right to correct any misleading release of this data in any medium through the release of correct data or analysis. Please note that due to rounding, percentages may not add up to exactly 100%

Margin of error in Districts 2, 4, 6 +/- 10.0 percentage points

Conducted September 24 29, 2013

Trained, professional interviewers

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Key Findings: Quality of Life in Oakland

3

Direction of the City

Only one-quarter of voters feel the City is headed in the right direction
Over half feel less safe than they did a year ago

Even so, voters like Oakland and think its a good place to live

Some of the best things about living in Oakland are the culture, diversity, and the weather
The worst thing about living in Oakland is the crime

Voters in Oakland frequently ride BART, visit parks and open spaces, libraries, and shop/dine in Uptown and Downtown Voters are generally favorable toward new business (national retail stores too!), and encouraging companies to move to Oakland Support for renewing Measure Y is below necessary threshold, but voters are very favorable toward components of measure (indicating that they just might not know that much about it)

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Key Findings: Quans destiny

4

Mayor Jean Quans vitals are weak

One-quarter of voters feel favorable toward her, compared to almost two-thirds who feel unfavorable (and her ratings have gotten worse since last year) More than three-quarters of voters give her a negative job rating

Less than one-fifth of voters would reelect her if the election were today

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Voter Mood

Just over one-quarter (27%) of voters think the City is headed in the right direction
6

Do you think things in the City of Oakland are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? (Q6)

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02

Right direction

Wrong track

47%

27%

Sep-03

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-10

Sep-11

Sep-12

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Sep-13

Sep-09

The number of voters who feel unsafe continues to rise

7

Would you say you feel safer today in Oakland than you did a year or two ago, or would you say you feel less safe? (Q7)

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04

Safer

Less Safe

55%

13% Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Sep-09

Voters in District 6 are most pessimistic

8

Right direction

Don't know

Wrong track

Safer

Same/Don't know

Less safe

47%

37%
54%

64%

55%

49%

57%

59%

25%

35% 24% 28% 12% 24% CCD 6 32% 39% 30% 29% 13% CCD 6

27%

22% CCD 4

13% Citywide

12% CCD 2

13% CCD 4

Citywide

CCD 2

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Priority Issues

Eighty percent of voters say public education is in GREAT need of additional funding
10

I am going to read a short list of public services in Oakland. For each one, please tell me if you think there is a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding for that service. (Q9-Q20)
Great need Some need (Should be less/DK) Little need No real need

Public education (Q19)

80% 75% 69% 57% 44% 39% 30% 39%

11% 4% 2% 4% 12% 3% 3% 6% 20% 35% 10% 6% 4%4%4% 2% 4% 2% 11% 6% 9% 7%

Police services (Q11)

Economic development and job creation (Q20) Road repair and maintenance (Q13) Preventing illegal dumping (Q15) Libraries (Q12) Neighborhood blight (Q17) Graffiti prevention and removal (Q16) Senior services (Q14) Parks and recreation (Q9)

38%
35% 35% 34% 28% 18% 33% 36%

33%
34% 31% 44% 12% 6% 21%

11%
6% 10% 22%

9%

9%
15% 8% 4% 8%

4% 10% 10%

Fire services (Q10)

Festivals and cultural events (Q18)

14% 22%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Need for police funding is same as last year, but intensity has increased
11

I am going to read a short list of public services in Oakland. For each one, please tell me if you think there is a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding for that service. (Q9-Q20)
Great/some need
Fire Parks and services recreation (Q10) (Q9) 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012

(Less/DK)

Little/no need

78% 81% 64% 67% 88% 88% 78% 80% 92% 88% 12% 11%

4% 2%

18% 17% 24% 22% 3% 9% 3% 9% 16% 15% 2% 6% 1% 11%

Road Senior repair and Police services maintena Libraries services (Q14) nce (Q13) (Q12) (Q11)

(75% great need, 12% some need) (66% great need, 22% some need)

6% 4%

2013
2012

66%
66%
Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

22%
18%

12%
16%

*In 2012, 79% of voters rated public education as VERY important to the future of Oakland

Attitudes toward business

Voters are favorable toward affordable housing, and bringing new business to Oakland
13

Next some ideas about economic growth and job creation. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose(Q22-Q25)
Strongly favor Somewhat favor (DK) Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

Requiring affordable housing be part of any new housing development project (Q24)

53%

26%

4% 10% 7%

Offering tax incentives to encourage companies to move to Oakland (Q25)

45%

34%

4% 12% 5%

Allowing more national retail stores to locate in Oakland (Q22)

38%

32%

6% 14%

11%

Allowing more parking structures to be built to accommodate new development (Q23)

28%

38%

7%

20%

8%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Voters are more favorable to national retail stores (rather than chain stores)
14

Next some ideas about economic growth and job creation. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose(Q22-Q25)
Total Favor Offering tax Allowing more incentives to parking structures Allowing more encourage to be built to national retail companies to accommodate move to Oakland new development stores to locate in Oakland (Q22)* (Q25) (Q23) 2013 (DK) Total Oppose

70% 58% 66% 5%

6% 36% 7%

25%

2012

2013

28%

2012

72%
79% 88%

6%
4%

23%
17% 3% 10%

2013

2012

*In 2012, this item read Allowing more chain stores to locate in Oakland.
Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

District 6 is especially favorable toward national retail stores

15

Next some ideas about economic growth and job creation. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose(Q22-Q25)
Total Favor Allowing Requiring more parking affordable structures to Allowing be built to more national housing be part of any accommodate retail stores to locate in new new housing development development Oakland (Q23) (Q22) project (Q24) Citywide CCD 2 CCD 4 CCD 6 Citywide CCD 2 CCD 4 CCD 6 Citywide CCD 2 CCD 4 CCD 6 Citywide CCD 2 CCD 4 CCD 6 (DK) Total Oppose

70% 61% 67%

84% 66% 62% 65% 73% 79% 83% 79% 74% 79% 77% 81% 89%

25% 9% 30% 6% 27% 7% 10% 7% 28% 2% 35% 6% 29% 7% 20% 4% 17% 17% 1% 20% 5% 20% 4% 17% 2% 21% 5% 14% 2% 9%

6%

Offering tax incentives to encourage companies to move to Oakland (Q25)

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Quality of life in Oakland

Oaklands diversity, weather, and culture are best things about living here
17

What would you say is the BEST thing about living in Oakland? (OPEN ENDED, ACCEPT ONE RESPONSE) (Q4)

Diversity Weather Proximity/Location

23% 19% 11% 9% 6% 5% 5% 4% 2% 1% 3% 8% 1% 3%

The people
Love living here Cultural events It's beautiful Affordable/Home ownership

Restaurants/stores
Public transit Nothing good to say Other No/None/Nothing

Don't Know

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

More than two-thirds volunteered crime as worst thing about living in Oakland
18

What would you say is the WORST thing about living in Oakland? (OPEN ENDED, ACCEPT ONE RESPONSE) (Q4)

Crime City Government Lack of police City finances Bad reputation Poverty Everything

69% 6% 3% 2%

2%
2% 1% 1% 1% 10% 2% 1%

Drugs Parking
Other No/None/Nothing (DK)

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Seventy percent of voters say Oakland is an excellent or good place to live

19

How would you rate Oakland as a place to live? Would you say it is an excellent, good, only fair, or poor place to live? (Q8)

Excellent

Good

(Don't know)

Only fair

Poor

21%

49%

2%

20%

8%

70%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Voters in District 2 are especially happy to live in Oakland

20

Excellent

Good

(Don't know)

Only fair

Poor

Citywide

21%

49%

2%

20%

8%

CCD 2

31%

45%

1% 17%

5%

CCD 4

25%

45%

2%

19%

8%

CCD 6

14%

44%

1%

28%

14%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Support is mixed for keeping local sports teams in the area

21

Thinking about the future of Oakland, how important is it to you that we keep the As, Raiders, and Warriors in Oakland extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not at all important? (Q21)

Not Important 48%

Not at all important, 24%

Extremely important, 29%

Somewhat important, 24%

Important 50%
Very important, 21%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Nearly two-thirds of voters in District 6 support keeping teams here

22

Thinking about the future of Oakland, how important is it to you that we keep the As, Raiders, and Warriors in Oakland extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not at all important? (Q21)

Somewhat/Not at all
(DK) Extremely/very important

35% 48% 50% 52%

2% 1%
2% 63% 48% 48%

51%

Citywide

CCD 2

CCD 4

CCD 6

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Many voters have experience with taking BART, visiting parks, and shopping/dining in Downtown & Uptown
23

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

More than half (52%) of voters said they have taken BART at least 12 times in the last year; 46% have visited a park or open space area
24

In the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or another household member has done each of the following activities? (Q40-Q57)
Never 1 or 2 times (DK) 3 to 12 times More than 12 times

Rode BART (Q54)

15%

9%

23%

52%

Visited an Oakland park or open space area (Q47)

11%

11%

32%

46%

Read the Oakland Tribune online or in print (Q53)

36%

11%

19%

34%

Shopped or dined in Downtown Oakland (Q52)

15%

15%

40%

29%

Used Oakland public libraries or their services (Q48)

33%

15%

26%

26%

Shopped or dined in Uptown (Q44)

25%

16%

6%

32%

21%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Fifty-five percent of voters have never been to an As game

25

In the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or another household member has done each of the following activities? (Q40-Q57)
Never 1 or 2 times (DK) 3 to 12 times More than 12 times

Hosted a visitor for an overnight stay (Q56)

32%

15%

35%

17%

Shopped or dined in Jack London Square (Q43)

23%

26%

38%

13%

Flown into or out of Oakland Airport (Q57)

29%

24%

36%

12%

Attended a cultural event in Oakland (Q45)

26%

25%

35%

12%

Used Oakland senior services (Q49)

85%

5%4% 6%

Attended an As game (Q40)

55%

20%

19%

5%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Attendance at NFL and NBA games is low

26

In the last twelve months, about how many times do you think you or another household member has done each of the following activities? (Q40-Q57)
Never 1 or 2 times (DK) 3 to 12 times More than 12 times

Visited the Oakland Zoo (Q51)

58%

24%

14% 4%

Used services in person at Oakland City Hall (Q50)

67%

20%

10% 4%

Attended Oaklands First Fridays Art Festival (Q55)

53%

26%

18%

3%

Attended a Raiders game (Q41)

82%

9% 6%2%

Attended a Warriors game (Q42) Attend the Childrens Holiday parade in Oakland (Q46)

80%

13%

6% 1%

85%

12% 2% 1%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Voters under 50 are more likely to ride BART, and shop/dine downtown
27

% Who does each activity frequently

18-49 years old (44%)
Rode BART (Q54) 67% 56%

Visited an Oakland park or open space area (Q47)

Shopped or dined in downtown Oakland (Q52) Used Oakland public libraries or their services (Q48)

40%
31% 50%

50-64 years old (31%)

Rode BART (Q54)

Visited an Oakland park or open space area (Q47)

41%
38% 26% 49% 34% 29% 25%

Read the Oakland Tribune online or in print (Q53) Shopped or dined in downtown Oakland (Q52)
Read the Oakland Tribune online or in print (Q53) Visited an Oakland park or open space area (Q47)

Over 65 (25%)

Rode BART (Q54)

Used Oakland public libraries or their services (Q48)

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Attitudes toward public safety

Support for Measure Y renewal is at 48%, but components of measure are popular
29

As you may know, in 2004 Oakland voters approved a parking lot and parcel tax, called Measure Y to reduce crime and increase public safety. Based on what you know now, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject a renewal of Measure Y at the current tax rates? (Q26) Total Yes (Undecided/Don't know) Total No

Measure Y renewal

48%

21%

30%

There are a few different components to Measure Y. I will read some of those components and please tell me if you would vote yes to approve or no to reject each one. (Q27-Q30) (DO NOT RANDOMIZE)

Raises revenue to hire more police officers (Q27) Expand violence prevention social programs for youth (Q28) Increase paramedics and emergency fire personnel (Q29) Reauthorizes the PT rate of $88/yr for a single family residential property and maintains the 8.5% comm. pkg surcharge (Q30)

75% 84%

4%

22% 4% 13%

76%
57% 13%

5% 20%
30%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

More than half (55%) of voters in District 4 support Measure Y

30

30%

28%

23% 39%

22%
21%

27%
19%

Total No

(Und)
Total Yes 48% 45%

55% 43%

Citywide

CCD 2

CCD 4

CCD 6

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Attitudes toward elected officials

Local leaders mostly unknown citywide

32

Now Im going to read you a list of individuals and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so. (Q31-Q36)

Favorable

(DK)

Unfavorable

Oakland City Auditor Courtney Ruby (Q33)

17%

75%

7%

Oakland City Council Member Pat Kernighan (Q34)

23%

69%

8%

Oakland City Council Member Libby Schaaf (Q35)

26%

67%

7%

Oakland City Council Member Desley Brooks (Q36)

18%

57%

26%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

But are popular within their districts

33

Now Im going to read you a list of individuals and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so. (Q31-Q36) Favorable (DK) Unfavorable

Oakland City Council Member Pat Kernighan (Q34)

Citywide CCD 2

23% 48%

69% 40%

8% 12%

Oakland City Oakland City Council Council Member Desley Member Libby Brooks (Q36) Schaaf (Q35)

Citywide
CCD 4 Citywide CCD 6

26%
54% 18% 31% 57% 42%

67%
39% 26% 27%

7%
8%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Three-quarters of voters give the City Council a negative job rating; ratings similar across the City
34

How would you rate the overall job the Oakland City Council is doing? (Q38)

Excellent/Good

(DK)

Only Fair/Poor

Citywide

14%

11%

75%

CCD 2

13%

11%

76%

CCD 4

11%

11%

78%

CCD 6

20%

7%

74%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Mayor Quans favorable rating continues to worsen

35

Now Im going to read you a list of individuals and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so. Mayor Jean Quan

Favorable

Never Heard/DK

Unfavorable

2013

24%

14%

62%

2012

36%

11%

53%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Little difference in her favorable rating by District

36

Now Im going to read you a list of individuals and organizations. For each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person or organization. If you have never heard of one, please say so. Mayor Jean Quan

Favorable
Citywide

Never Heard/DK 14%

Unfavorable 62%

24%

CCD 2

28%

12%

60%

CCD 4

26%

15%

60%

CCD 6

29%

11%

60%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

More than three-quarters (77%) give Quan a negative job rating

37

How would you rate the overall job Oakland Mayor Jean Quan is doing? (Q37)

Excellent

Good

(DK)

Only Fair

Poor

4%

16%

4%

32%

45%

77%
Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Voters in District 4 are especially unimpressed

38

How would you rate the overall job Oakland Mayor Jean Quan is doing? (Q37)

Excellent/Good
Citywide

(DK)

Only Fair/Poor 77%

19%

4%

CCD 2

21%

79%

CCD 4

17%

3%

80%

CCD 6

22%

2%

76%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

More than two-thirds (69%) of voters would elect someone else if the election were today, including nearly half who said definitely someone else
39

As you may know, Jean Quan is running for re-election as Mayor of Oakland. If the election were held today would you definitely vote for Quan, probably vote for Quan, probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else? (Q39)

Definitely Quan 5% 18% Probably Quan

13%

Probably Else

23%

69% Definitely Else

46%

(Dont know/not sure)

13%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Quans reelect is low throughout the City

40

Reelect Quan

(DK/Refused)

Else

69%

59%

67%

70%

20%

13%
18% 21%

10%
23%

7%
23%

Citywide

CCD 2

CCD 4

CCD 6

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

By every measure, Quans vitals are weak

41

Negative for Quan

Neutral

62% 77%

69%

Positive for Quan

15% 4% 24%
Favorable Rating

13%

20%
Job Rating

18%
Re-Elect

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Oakland Mayoral favorability, through the years

42

Source: EMC past polling

Favorable

Neutral

Unfavorable

Quan (2013)

24%

14%

62%

Dellums (2009)

30%

8%

63%

Brown (2000)

81%

4%

14%

Harris (1997)

58%

8%

35%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Oakland Mayoral job rating, through the years

43

Source: EMC past polling

Excellent/good

(DK)

Only fair/poor

Quan (2013)

20%

4%

77%

Brown (2000)

73%

4%

23%

Harris (1997)

36%

3%

62%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Oakland Mayoral reelect, through the years

44

Source: EMC past polling

Reelect

(DK/Refused)

Else

Quan (2013)

18%

13%

69%

Dellums (2009)

18%

13%

69%

Harris (1997)

33%

20%

48%

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Voter demographics
45

Lived in Oakland
6-10 years (14%)

45% Men 55% Women

2-5 years (12%) Less than 2 years (1%)

11-20 years (19%)

More than 20 years (53%)

71% Democrats 6% Republicans 23% NPP/Others

Employed 57% Unemployed 7% Retired 27% Other 9% 43% of those employed work in Oakland (25% of electorate)

44% are 18-49 years old 31% are 50-64 25% are over 65

Oakland Chamber of Commerce Annual Survey | EMC #13-4992

Discussion