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Anand Rathi reviewed Cadila and thus expects EBITDA margin to recover in 1QFY14 as numerous one-time expenses and disapproving revenue mix rigorously hit 3QFY13 and 4QFY13. Steady growth is expected in the US and India with an estimated 12.3% yoy growth in revenue. But, its adjusted net profit is estimated to grow merely by 6.4% yoy because of lesser EBITDA margin yoy and greater interest cost. They maintain BUY with a price target of 900. Motilal Oswal evaluated that Cipla had performed poorer than expected in 3QFY13 due to which Motilal Oswal lowered the estimated EBITDA of FY13E/FY14E/15E by 12%/8%/8%. It has been observed that 4 reasons led to the increased pressure on profitability those were: (1) nonrecurring expenses incurred in 3QFY13, (2) the slower than expected ramp-up at Moraiya facility, (3) adverse product mix in its US formulations and (4) continuing pressure in Brazil due to the ANVISA strike. Moreover, earnings approximations have also faced a substantial cut compelled by augmented tax rates and decreased interest rates. Although it has been believed that recovery would be witnessed in FY14, as maximum cost pressures will be absorbed by innovative launches in US, stabilization of processes in Brazil and growth stability in domestic operations. Thus, they suggest maintaining BUY with revised target price of Rs.995. According to Angel Broking, Cadila Healthcare produced below-expected results for 3QFY13 excluding the sales part. The sales were just in line with the expectations while operating margins were below the estimates. The Management has estimated the company to be a US$3BN one, by FY2016. Therefore, Angel Broking has recommended NEUTRAL rating on Cadila stock. In IndiaNiveshs view, after the launch of Cadilas first NCE (New Chemical Entity), Lipaglyn in the domestic market, it would not have major financial impacts in the immediate run. Though utmost outcome is dependent on the drug acceptability by the Physicians but the Management has assumed that this product would contribute Rs.1 billion in subsequent 5 years. Thus, it is expected that the stock will trade at P/E multiple of 20x of FY14E & 16.3x of estimate earnings of FY15E at CMP of Rs.775. Hence, IndiaNivesh recommends BUY rating on the stock having the target price of Rs.913. According to Abhishek Jain, Cadila healthcare earning is expected to grow at a CAGR of above 25% for next 2 to 3 years. At current market price, the stock is trading at 14.6 P/E multiple of FY14 Estimated EPS. Investors are recommended to buy the with medium to long term investment horizon.
REFERENCE
Angel Broking (2013). Buy Cadila Healthcare, Cipla: Angel Broking - Moneycontrol.com. Retrieved from http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/recommendations/buy-cadila-healthcarecipla-angel-broking_939502.html Dion Global Solutions Limited (2013). Cadila Healthcare > Listing Details > Pharmaceuticals > Listing Details of Cadila Healthcare - BSE: 532321, NSE: CADILAHC. Retrieved from http://www.moneycontrol.com/company-facts/cadilahealthcare/listing/CHC#CHC
IndiaNivesh (2013). Cadila announces launch of its first NCE LIPAGLYN into domestic markets - IndiaNivesh : ValueNotes.com. Retrieved from http://www.indianotes.com/InvestmentStrategy/Cadila-announces-launch-of-its-first-NCE-called-LIPAGLYN-into-domesticmarkets/182675/12540403.00/C Jain, A. (2013). Cadila Healthcare: Strong buy - Abhishek Jain : ValueNotes.com. Retrieved from http://www.indianotes.com/Investment-Strategy/Cadila-Healthcare-Strong-
buy/180437/12540403.00/C Motilal Oswal (2013). Cadila Healthcare Q3FY13: Revenues grew 15% YoY - Motilal Oswal : ValueNotes.com. Retrieved from http://www.indianotes.com/Quarterly-Results/Cadila-
Healthcare-Q3FY13-Revenues-grew-15-YoY/180820/12540403.00/C Motilal Oswal (2013). Cadila Healthcare: Adjusted PAT would grow 1.3% y-o-y to Rs1.94b Motilal Oswal : IndiaNotes.com. Retrieved from http://www.indianotes.com/QuarterlyResults/Cadila-Healthcare-Adjusted-PAT-would-grow-13-y-o-y-toRs194b/183284/12540403.00/C Sushil Finance (2013). Buy Cadila Healthcare; target Rs 955: Sushil Finance Moneycontrol.com. Retrieved from http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/recommendations/buycadila-healthcare-target-rs-955-sushil-finance_898253.html Sushil Finance (2013). Cadila Healthcare Q4FY13: Decent set of numbers on revenue front Sushil Finance : ValueNotes.com. Retrieved from http://www.indianotes.com/QuarterlyResults/Cadila-Healthcare-Q4FY13-Decent-set-of-numbers-on-revenuefront/182778/12540403.00/C Sushil Finance (2013). Cadila Healthcare: Reports disappointing set of numbers in Q1FY14 Sushil Finance : IndiaNotes.com. Retrieved from http://www.indianotes.com/QuarterlyResults/Cadila-Healthcare-Reports-disappointing-set-of-numbers-inQ1FY14/183699/12540403.00/C