Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Key Financials
| Crore Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS (|) FY11 59,467 19,960.8 6,046.8 15.9 FY12 71,450.8 23,657.3 4,259.4 11.2 FY13E 81,268.0 26,931.7 5,609.6 14.8 FY14E 90,104.4 30,690.3 8,106.4 21.4
EPS (FY13E) ........................................................................................................ Unchanged EPS (FY14E) ........................................................................................................ Unchanged RATING ............................................................................. Changed from Buy to Strong Buy
Valuation summary
P/E Target P/E EV / EBITDA P/BV RoNW (%) RoCE (%) FY11 19.2 26.4 8.8 2.4 12.4 8.6 FY12 27.3 37.5 7.7 2.3 8.4 8.4 FY13E 20.7 28.4 6.6 2.1 10.1 10.1 FY14E 14.3 19.7 5.4 1.8 12.8 12.3
Stock data
Market Capitalization (| Crore) Total Debt (FY12) (| Crore) Cash and Investments (FY12) (| Crore) EV (| Crore) 52 week H/L Equity capital Face value MF Holding (%) FII Holding (%) 116,286.2 69,023.2 3,843.2 181,466.2 441 / 282 | 1898.2 Crore |5 8.2 16.9
Price movement
6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Nifty (L.H.S) Price (R.H.S) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Jul-12
Valuation
Using the DCF methodology for valuing Bharti and assuming a revenue CAGR of 7.9% in FY12-20E and a terminal growth of 3.0% thereon, we have arrived at a target price of | 420. The risk reward seems to be favourable at this point. We rate the stock as STRONG BUY.
Exhibit 1: Key Financials
(Year-end March) Net Sales (| crore) EBITDA (| crore) Net Profit (| crore) EPS (|) P/E (x) Price / Book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%) FY10 39,615.0 16,026.6 9,102.5 24.0 12.8 2.8 7.2 19.7 22.0 FY11 59,467.2 19,960.8 6,046.8 15.9 19.2 2.4 8.8 8.6 12.4 FY12 71,450.8 23,657.3 4,259.4 11.2 27.3 2.3 7.7 8.4 8.4 FY13E 81,268.0 26,931.7 5,609.6 14.8 20.7 2.1 6.6 10.1 10.1 FY14E 90,104.4 30,690.3 8,106.4 21.4 14.3 1.8 5.4 12.3 12.8
Analysts name
Karan Mittal karan.mittal@icicisecurities.com Anil Shenoy anil.shenoy@icicisecurities.com
Dominant position Bharti is a dominant market leader in the industry with revenue market share of 30.1% in the industry and subscriber market share of 19.8% (24.3% on VLR basis) indicating strong quality of subscribers. Total 91.4% of subscribers are active as per the visitor location register (VLR) data as against 74.6% of the industry. These high-end subscribers will be the first to move on to 3G services. Consequently, the company also boasts of highest 3G subscribers in the country with ~8 million subscribers. The company also has the highest ARPU and MoU among listed players at | 189 and 431 minutes, respectively.
Exhibit 2: Strong market leader
35.0 33.0 31.0 29.0 27.0 25.0 23.0 21.0 19.0 17.0 15.0 32.7 33.9 33.3 33.1 33.3 32.7 32.8 33.3 32.2 32.0 31.1 31.8 30.9 30.5 30.1
31.2
Q109
Q309
Q110
Q310
Q111
Q311
Q112
Q312
Though the company has been marginally losing its revenue market share with the entrance of new operators in the industry, the market share still remains at a strong level of above 30%. With imminent consolidation in the industry, we expect Bharti to retain its market share subsequently. Going forward, though the ARPM would be pressurised by the competition among incumbents, we expect MoU and ARPU to improve significantly. This will drive revenues, going forward. We expect the Indian mobile business to grow at a CAGR of 12.9% in FY12-14E led by 13.6% growth in total minutes on the network and a marginal decline in the ARPM to 43 paisa. African operations to drive growth subsequently Though the improvement in African operations has been lower than expectations, the trend seems to be reversing in the last two quarters.
Page 2
While the ARPM in the African business is expected to reduce, going forward, owing to the competition in African markets, we expect the growth in MoU and the subscriber base to more than cover up for the slump in ARPM. We expect African revenues to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% in FY12-14E from | 19826.7 crore to | 26470.8 crore on the back of an increase in the subscriber base from 53.1 million to 70.0 million and growth in MoU from 123 to 134.
Exhibit 5: KPI assumptions
Key Metrics for Africa Subscriber base ARPU MoU ARPM Units Millions US$ Min US FY11 44.2 5.4 122 6.2 FY12 53.1 7.1 123 5.8 FY13E 61.6 6.8 126 5.4 FY14E 70.0 6.7 134 5.0
EPS to almost double by FY14E We expect revenues to post a CAGR of 12.3% from FY12-14E owing to strong KPIs and its leadership position in the domestic market. The EBITDA margin is expected to improve from 33.1% in FY12 to 34.1% in FY14 due to its operating leverage. The company is past its peak capex cycle. On a consolidated level, Bharti would be generating free cash flow in excess of | 10000 crore each year, which would be used to repay the debt. Led by an improving operational performance and reduction in interest outgo on account of debt repayment, we expect the EPS to grow 1.9x to | 21.4 by FY14E from FY12 EPS of | 11.2.
Page 3
Revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.3% in FY12-14E from | 71451 crore to | 90104 crore while the EBITDA margin is expected to increase from 33.1% to 34.1%
EBITDA Margins
Net debt is expected to reduce from | 65180.0 crore in interest outgo from | 3818.5 crore to | 3592.5 crore. PAT would grow at a CAGR of 38.0% from | 4259.4 crore to | 8106.4 crore
| crore
60090.9 FY11
The company is past its peak capex cycle and is expected to witness a decline in capex intensity from 25.3% in FY12 to 16.6% in FY14. The absolute capex is expected to decrease from | 18075.9 crore to ~| 15000 crore
| crore
Page 4
Regulatory overhang remains The industry has been marred by regulatory issues since 2010 when the first set of recommendations were issued by Trai for the new telecom policy. In the latest set of recommendations, several issues ranging from spectrum refarming, one time spectrum charges and high reserve prices for auction to spectrum liberalisation have been raised. Most of these issues have been widely opposed by industry participants. While several new operators like DB Etisalat, STel and Loop have already decided to shut shop after the Supreme Court cancelled their licenses, Uninor and SSTL have announced that they will not participate in auctions if the recommendation on high reserve price is accepted by the government. We believe even incumbents would shy away from participating if reserve prices are not rationalised. However, some of the media reports suggest that the EGoM may relax the recommendations considerably to aid industry growth. To factor in the financial impact on Bharti Airtel, we have assigned a 25% probability to the reserve price being kept at current levels, 50% probability to it being lowered by 50% and 25% probability to it being cut by 75%. Based on our analysis, the company may have to shell out ~ | 30700 crore (at the base price) as one-time spectrum fee and for retaining its spectrum as and when it comes up for renewal.
Exhibit 10: Estimated payout
(| Crore) Pan India Spectrum Fees (per MHz) Current At 50% Discount 900 MHz 1800 MHz 900 MHz 1800 MHz 7244.4 3622.2 3622.2 1811.1 Payout for Bharti Airtel Current At 50% Discount 11404.4 5702.2 Equal Equal 5068.8 2534.4 Probability Probability 2518.5 1259.2 6330.6 48253.1 54583.7 25% 3165.3 24126.6 27291.8 50% 30703.3 At 75% Discount 900 MHz 1800 MHz 1811.1 905.5 At 75% Discount 2851.1 Equal 1267.2 Probability 629.6 1582.6 12063.3 13645.9 25%
Entire Spectrum Above 4.4 MHz Above 6.2 MHz Estimated Payout on one time spectrum fees NPV of spectrum retention charges Total Payout Assigned Probability Estimated Payout
but Bharti Airtel would remain the last man standing We believe in such a scenario the company would raise tariffs to support high capital expenditure. We assume the ARPM will go up to 60 paisa, which would result in an MoU decline of about 25% from 431 currently to 323. Moreover, the tariff increase would also be supported by reduced competition since post these auctions most of the operators who were awarded licenses in 2008 would cease to exist.
Exhibit 11: Estimates after considering the payouts and increase in prices
(| Crore) Revenue EBITDA Depreciation Interest PBT PAT EPS (|) FY13 Current Estimates 81268.0 26931.7 14703.8 4348.6 7999.3 5609.6 14.8 After Payout 81161.7 29230.7 15453.8 6271.5 7545.4 5291.4 13.9 FY14 Current Estimates 90104.4 30690.3 15914.0 3592.5 11303.7 8106.4 21.4 After Payout 90368.1 33350.7 17414.0 5677.5 10305.4 7390.5 19.5
Page 5
Valuation
We believe at current valuations the stock looks attractive as most of the negatives seem to be already priced in. The stock has been subdued since the first set of recommendations was released in 2010. We believe once the auctions are conducted and there is more clarity on regulatory policy coupled with reduced competition, the company would get rerated. Currently, the stock is trading at a P/E of 14.3x, which is way below the last five years average PE of 21.2. We believe that as regulatory clarity starts emerging, the stock will start inching towards its long term average.
Exhibit 12: One year forward P/E chart
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Apr-08 Price Sep-08 CLOSE Feb-09 Jul-09 PER 35 Dec-09 May-10 PER 29 Oct-10 PER 23 Mar-11 Aug-11 PER 17 Jan-12 PER 11
Using the DCF methodology for valuing Bharti and assuming a revenue CAGR of 7.9% in FY12-20E and a terminal growth of 3.0% thereon, we have arrived at a target price of | 420. The risk reward seems to be favourable at current valuations. We rate the stock as STRONG BUY.
Exhibit 13: DCF valuation
| in Crore
WACC Revenue CAGR over FY12-20E Present Value of Cash Flow till FY20E Terminal Growth Present Value of terminal cash flow PV of firm Less: Current Debt Total present value of the Equity Number of Equity Shares outstanding DCF - Target price (|) 10.7% 7.9% 90,105.9 3.0% 138,413.3 228,519.2 69,023.2 159,496.0 379.6 420
Page 6
Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March) Total operating Income Growth (%) Employee Expenses Marketing Expenses Access Charges Network Operating License Fee Other Costs Total Operating Expenditure EBITDA Growth (%) Depreciation Interest Other Income Non Operating Expenses PBT MI / Profit from associates Total Tax PAT Growth (%) EPS (|) FY11 59,467.2 50.1 3,280.3 10,780.7 7,476.4 12,753.1 5,173.0 42.9 39,506.4 19,960.8 24.5 10,206.6 2,181.3 136.3 23.6 7,685.6 -140.2 1,779.0 6,046.8 -33.6 15.9 FY12 71,450.8 20.2 3,515.9 12,630.9 9,736.1 15,759.8 6,109.9 40.9 47,793.5 23,657.3 18.5 13,368.1 3,818.5 55.0 6,525.7 6.1 2,260.2 4,259.4 -29.6 11.2 FY13E 81,268.0 13.7 3,855.9 14,057.8 11,485.0 17,666.6 6,943.7 327.3 54,336.3 26,931.7 13.8 14,703.8 4,348.6 120.0 7,999.3 -10.1 2,399.8 5,609.6 31.7 14.8 (| Crore) FY14E 90,104.4 10.9 4,175.5 15,450.2 12,711.0 18,995.2 7,718.6 363.6 59,414.1 30,690.3 14.0 15,914.0 3,592.5 120.0 11,303.7 -24.2 3,221.6 8,106.4 44.5 21.4
Balance sheet
(Year-end March) Liabilities Equity Capital Reserve and Surplus Total Shareholders funds Total Debt Deferred Tax Liability Others Total Liabilities Assets Gross Block Less: Acc Depreciation Net Block Investments Inventory Debtors Loans and Advances Other Current Assets Cash Total Current Assets Creditors Provisions Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Net Current Assets Others Assets Application of Funds FY11 1,898.8 46,868.0 48,766.8 61,670.8 1,248.7 6,272.6 117,958.9 FY12 1,898.8 48,712.5 50,611.3 69,023.2 1,162.1 6,685.5 127,482.1 FY13E 1,898.8 53,877.9 55,776.7 63,023.2 1,162.1 6,675.4 126,637.4 (| Crore) FY14E 1,898.8 61,540.1 63,438.9 54,023.2 1,162.1 6,651.2 125,275.4
Key ratios
(Year-end March) Per share data (|) EPS Cash EPS BV DPS Cash Per Share Operating Ratios EBITDA Margin (%) PBT Margin (%) PAT Margin (%) Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE RoIC Valuation Ratios (x) P/E EV / EBITDA EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Solvency Ratios Debt/EBITDA Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio FY11 15.9 42.8 128.5 1.0 2.5 33.6 12.9 10.2 0.8 21.1 113.2 12.4 8.6 8.2 19.2 8.8 3.0 2.0 2.4 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.3 FY12E 11.2 46.4 133.3 1.0 5.3 33.1 9.1 6.0 0.9 30.3 120.6 8.4 8.4 8.7 27.3 7.7 2.5 1.6 2.3 2.9 1.4 0.4 0.4 FY13E 14.8 53.5 146.9 1.0 1.0 33.1 9.8 6.9 0.7 29.5 107.0 10.1 10.1 10.2 20.7 6.6 2.2 1.4 2.1 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.4 FY14E 21.4 63.3 167.1 1.0 4.0 34.1 12.5 9.0 0.7 27.5 101.0 12.8 12.3 12.7 14.3 5.4 1.9 1.3 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.4
160,391.0 31,516.7 128,874.3 1,415.4 213.9 5,492.9 3,050.4 870.6 957.5 10,585.3 23,968.4 118.0 4,461.1 28,547.5 -17,962.2 5,631.4 117,958.9
178,466.9 44,884.8 133,582.1 3,524.2 130.8 6,373.5 3,262.1 1,198.8 2,030.0 12,995.1 23,265.0 129.0 6,185.5 29,579.5 -16,584.3 6,960.1 127,482.1
194,466.9 59,588.6 134,878.3 3,524.2 158.6 6,763.0 3,415.1 1,296.1 384.3 12,017.1 24,382.5 135.2 5,923.9 30,441.7 -18,424.5 6,659.4 126,637.4
209,466.9 75,502.6 133,964.3 3,524.2 162.3 6,814.4 3,613.0 1,470.1 1,528.1 13,587.9 25,483.4 141.3 7,502.2 33,126.9 -19,539.0 7,325.9 125,275.4
Page 7
Buy 116,286 Hold 27,268 UR 438 Hold 14,221 Sell 2,647 Sell 1,698
Page 8
RATING RATIONALE
ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: > 10%/ 15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more;
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Karan Mittal MBA, Anil Shenoy MBA research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.
Disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management and brokerage and financing group. We along with affiliates are leading underwriter of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. Our research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their dependent family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ICICI Securities, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and employees (ICICI Securities and affiliates) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities is acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return of investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities and its affiliates might have managed or co-managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months. ICICI Securities and affiliates might have received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction. It is confirmed that Karan Mittal MBA Anil Shenoy MBA research analysts and the authors of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Our research professionals are paid in part based on the profitability of ICICI Securities, which include earnings from Investment Banking and other business. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. It is confirmed that Karan Mittal MBA Anil Shenoy MBA research analysts and the authors of this report or any of their family members does not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. ICICI Securities and affiliates may act upon or make use of information contained in the report prior to the publication thereof. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.
Page 9