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EquaTerra is pleased to release the findings from its 1Q09 • Demand and buying patterns, including the impact of
EquaTerra advisor and business and information technology market conditions on the demand for outsourcing and
(IT) service provider Pulse surveys. Through these surveys, related third-party business and IT services
EquaTerra has developed a highly informative gauge that
• The impact of current market conditions on new
provides quarterly insights into trends and projections in the
and existing deal structures and buyers’ outsourcing
outsourcing and third-party business and IT service markets,
governance capabilities and efforts
gleaned from its own field advisors and leading global service
providers. EquaTerra’s advisors are the leading experts on • Outsourcing deal scope, sales cycles, pricing, contract
business and IT services assisting buying organizations actively value and profitability
exploring or undertaking shared services, outsourcing,
offshore and other service delivery alternatives • Service provider pursuit and delivery capacity
Since their inception in 2004, the EquaTerra advisor and The Pulse surveys focus on using outsourcing and other third-
service provider Pulse surveys have yielded insightful analysis party services to support the following functional areas:
of current and ongoing market trends. They capture changes • Customer care/call center
in demand, scope, capacity and related key market indicators. • Finance & accounting
They highlight the changes, and the direction of change, in • Human resources
the business and IT service industry as a whole. The surveys • Information technology
focus on where the market is going and how that direction is • Knowledge process outsourcing
changing – or not – compared to prior quarters and years. • Procurement
EquaTerra also incorporates key quantitative market data and • Vertical industry business services
leading indicators from sources outside the Pulse surveys. The following leading global business and IT service providers
These sources include experiences from direct client advisory were polled for this quarter’s sell-side survey:
engagements and other EquaTerra market research, as well as
service provider performance and satisfaction studies. • Accenture • Infosys
• ACS • Logica
This edition of the advisor and service provider Pulse surveys
• ADP • Outsource Partners
reflects business and IT service market activity during 1Q09
• Capgemini International
(January through March 2009) and projections for the balance
• Ceridian • Perot Systems
of 2009.
• Convergys • TCS
• CSC • Unisys
• Hewlett-Packard • Wipro
• IBM • WNS
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EquaTerra offers the following conclusions from the 1Q09 Pulse survey:
• BPO and ITO market demand growth improved in 1Q09 • Market conditions are causing some buyers to push to
according to EquaTerra advisors and third-party business open up existing deals for better pricing and other terms
and IT service providers polled. Signs indicate this trend and conditions. Buyers for the most part are not pulling
will continue during the rest of 2009. Pent-up buyer back from existing outsourcing efforts, global sourcing
demand created but not consummated in the second or the use of offshore-based service providers.
half of 2008 is now making it to market. Uncertain
• Global sourcing efforts will face more scrutiny in 2009
market conditions and turmoil within individual buyer
given market events (e.g., terrorist attacks in India,
accounts will continue to slow or stop some sourcing
Satyam implosion and local unemployment trends), but
efforts, albeit less frequently.
will continue to grow. Buyers will increase focus and
• The market for more discretionary third-party services, improve abilities to address and account for risk in global
such as consulting, systems integration and some sourcing efforts.
application development work, is weaker than for
• Buyers in 2009 will migrate and consolidate third-party
outsourcing. The exception is in the public sector and
service work to larger and more established providers
military/aerospace markets where demand for all types
in a flight to quality, but also to gain economies of scale
of third-party business, mission support and IT services
and preferred pricing, terms and conditions. Leading
remains strong. U.S. public sector demand for third-
service providers will remain selective in the clients
party services continues to grow, driven in part by
and the business they pursue while tier two and below
stimulus fund inflows.
providers will scramble for whatever business they can
• Market conditions overall are driving more demand for get.
outsourcing, but the nature of the demand continues
• Market conditions are negatively impacting buyer
to change. Buyers are increasing pricing pressure on
abilities to perform outsourcing governance tasks as
service providers and are demanding more upfront
resources are cut and attention is focused elsewhere
and clearly defined costs savings. The deal sizes are
in the organization. This is dangerous given the key
smaller and there is a strong focus on cost savings and
role outsourcing governance efforts play in enabling
cost avoidance. Pricing pressure varies based on the
outsourcing success and satisfaction.
quality and desirability of both the buyer and the service
provider. • Service provider capacity for deal pursuit is improving,
though this is largely a function of more service provider
selectivity and discretion around the deals and clients
they choose to pursue. Service provider capacity for deal
transition and delivery also is improving.
Distribution of the EquaTerra Pulse survey reports, controlled by EquaTerra, is intended for internal use and select delivery to
EquaTerra clients, prospects and other marketplace representatives. Questions or comments regarding these surveys should be
directed to Stan Lepeak, Managing Director of EquaTerra and EquaSiis Global Research, +1 203 458 0677.
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Table of Contents
Please note: this PDF I. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
also includes embedded II. EquaTerra Advisor Highlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
bookmarks to help better III. BPO/ITO Service Provider Highlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
navigate through the IV. Market Demand and Market Trends Update. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
document. For a list of Figure 1 - Advisors: Market Demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
bookmarks, please click Figure 2 - Advisors: Demand by Service Delivery Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
on the “Bookmarks” tab to Figure 3 - Advisors: Change in Demand by Service Delivery Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
the left of this PDF. Figure 4 - Service Providers: New Deal Pipeline Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Figure 5 - Service Providers: Demand Next Quarter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Figure 6 - Weighted Aggregate Market Demand: Advisors & Service Providers. . . . . 9
V. Economy’s Impact on Outsourcing Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Figure 7 - Economic Environment’s Impact on Outsourcing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
VI. Service Provider Responsiveness to Changing Buyer Needs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
VII. Market Conditions: Impact on New Deals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Figure 8 - Market Conditions: Impact on New Deals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
VIII. Demand Trends by Functional Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Figure 9 - Advisors: Demand by Functional Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Figure 10 - Service Providers: Demand by Functional Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
IX. Advisors:Functional and Process Area Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
X. Service Providers:Functional and Process Area Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
XI. Demand Trends by Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Figure 11 - Advisors: Demand by Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Figure 12 - Service Providers: Demand by Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
XII. Sales Cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Figure 13 - Service Providers: Sales Cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
XIII. Pricing Competitiveness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Figure 14 - Service Providers: Pricing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
XIV. Deal Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Figure 15 - Service Providers: Scope. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
XV. Service Providers: Contract Profitability and Ability to Increase Scope. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Figure 16 - Service Providers: Contract Profitability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Figure 17 - Service Providers: Ability on Increase Scope. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
XVI. Service Provider Capacity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Figure 18 - Advisors: Service Provider Capacity Overall. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Figure 19 - Advisors: Service Provider Capacity, Pursuit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Figure 20 - Advisors: Service Provider Capacity, Delivery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Figure 21 - Service Provider Capacity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
XVII. Update on Existing Deal Structures and Outsourcing Governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Figure 22 - Market Conditions: Impact on Existing Deals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Figure 23 - Market Conditions: Impact on Outsourcing Governance (1) . . . . . . . . . 28
Figure 24 - Market Conditions: Impact on Outsourcing Governance (2). . . . . . . . . 28
Figure 25 - Sample #1 from EquaTerra European
ITO Service Provider Performance and Satisfaction Study. . . . . . . . . . . 29
XVIII. Service Provider Market Update . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Figure 26 - Sample #2 from EquaTerra European
ITO Service Provider Performance and Satisfaction Study. . . . . . . . . . . 30
XIX. Deal Snapshot. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
XX. Service Providers: Current Deal Portfolio Status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Figure 27 - Service Provider Re-competes and Renegotiations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Figure 28 - Service Provider cancellations and now-renewals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Figure 29 - Service Provider problem contracts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
XXI. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
XXII. Appendix - Key Questions by Advisors’
Primary Geography and Outsourcing Focus Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
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Fifty-one percent say the economy is driving more outsourcing while 44 percent (down six
Economy’s Impact on Outsourcing
percent Q/Q) indicate economics are slowing deal flow
Driving emphasis on
• Cost savings
Market Conditions: Impact on New Deals
• Short term ROI
• Smaller scope deals
Service Provider Capacity – Pursuit Steady Q/Q with constrained levels at 29 percent; improved Y/Y
Service Provider Capacity – Delivery Improved; 22 percent cite adequate levels, up 10 percent Y/Y, 29 percent constrained
Driving buyers to
• Open deals to get better pricing
Market Conditions: Impact on Existing Deals
• Scrutinize deal governance and supplier risk
• Overhaul outsourcing governance
Causing
Market Conditions: Impact on Outsourcing • Uncertainty that complicates renewals
Governance • Cuts to retained organization and outsourcing governance efforts
• Distracting management from supporting outsourcing governance
1. ITO
Leading Market Segments 2. FAO
3. HRO
1. Payroll
Leading HRO Segments 2. HRIT
3. Benefits
1. AP
Leading FAO Segments 2. AR/C&C
3. General Accounting
1. ADM
Leading ITO Segments 2. Infrastructure/Operations
3. Desktop Services
1. AP
Leading Procurement Segments 2. Strategic Sourcing
3. Order Management
1. Energy/Utilities
Leading Industries 2. Banking/Financial Services
3. Public Sector
Market appetite for third-party business and IT services, primarily outsourcing, improved in 1Q09. This was driven by pent-up
demand from the end of 2008 and a stark recognition that dealing with negative global economic conditions requires drastic
action to reduce costs and overhaul operating models. These conditions will continue to drive outsourcing demand in the
second half of 2009 and into 2010 though turbulent market and buyer events still will disrupt deal flow.
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Demand Next Quarter Improved; 62 percent expect increases, up 9 percent Q/Q and 12 percent Y/Y
Thirty-eight percent say the economic climate is driving more outsourcing, no change
Economy’s Impact on Outsourcing
Y/Y; 57 percent indicate buyers are slowing/ rethinking outsourcing
Driving emphasis on
• Cost savings
Market Conditions: Impact on New Deals
• Adding new business with current service providers
• Smaller scope deals
Driving buyers to
• Scrutinize deal governance and supplier risk
Market Conditions: Impact on Existing Deals
• Open deals to get better pricing
• Open deals for other terms/conditions
Causing
Market Conditions: Impact on Outsourcing • Management distraction from supporting outsourcing governance
Governance • Uncertainty that complicates renewals
• Cuts to outsourcing governance efforts
Thirty-three percent cite lengthening, unchanged Q/Q but up 24 percent Y/Y; 57 percent
Sales Cycle
see no change
Much more aggressive; 76 percent cite more competitive pricing, up 32 percent Q/Q and
Pricing Competitiveness
41 percent Y/Y; nearly 2X average
Stable; 70 percent cite no change; just 20 percent cite improvement, well below average
Contract Profitability
of 38 percent
Ability to Increase Current Contract Scope Improved; 85 percent expect increases, up 24 percent Q/Q and 33 percent Y/Y
Improved; 43 percent cite adequate levels, up 10 percent Q/Q but down 21 percent Y/Y,
Service Provider Capacity
while just 14 percent cite restrictions
1. ADM
1. FAO, ITO
Leading Market Segments Leading ITO Segments 2. Infrastructure/Operations
2. HRO
3. Desktop, Packaged App Svcs.
1. Payroll, Benefits 1. AP, Order Management
Leading HRO Segments Leading Procurement Segments
2. HRIT 2. Strategic Sourcing
1. Banking/Financial Services
1. AP, AR/C&C
Leading FAO Segments Leading Industries 2. Manufacturing
2. General Accounting
3. CPG, Energy/Utilities
Business and IT service providers polled indicated that demand and pipeline growth improved in the first quarter. Demand
remains stronger for outsourcing than for more discretionary and project-based services. Providers are being forced to deal
with more aggressive pricing demands from buyers and strong emphasis on cost savings and short- term, realistic ROI, though
pressures vary significantly across buyer accounts. Ongoing supplier rationalization creates opportunities for leaders to gain
market share.
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Figure 1
EquaTerra added two new questions to the 1Q09 advisor Pulse survey to better
profile the overall market demand for third-party business and IT services. The first
(see Figure 2) assessed the greatest demand level areas across BPO, ITO, other types
of third-party IT services (e.g., consulting, systems integration, project based work)
and internal process improvement efforts (i.e., deploying expanded shared service
of offshore captive operations). The second new question (see Figure 3) assessed the
change in demand for these service delivery models compared to the prior quarter.
1 The aggregate market demand and pipeline levels illustrated in Figures 1-3 are based on a
calculation of the “down,” “flat” and “up” responses to each question and depict a combined
or aggregate total of each quarter’s response levels.
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• ITO was cited as the strongest area of demand across the four service delivery
categories by 59 percent of advisors, followed by BPO at 22 percent.
• The greatest increase in demand was cited for internal transformation and
improvement efforts by 60 percent of advisors. Fifty-six percent of advisors
indicated that the demand for ITO grew quarter over quarter. Just 21 percent
of advisors cited an increase in demand for non-ITO third-party IT services,
which are often viewed by buyers as more discretionary or easier to cut back
because they are delivered via shorter term projects.
ITO 59%
BPO 22%
Other IT Svcs 7%
Other 5%
Figure 2
12% 9% 6%
17%
34%
35%
39%
62% Down
Flat
Up
56% 60%
49%
21%
Figure 3
The increased demand for internal transformation efforts shows that organizations
more often are addressing problems themselves today instead of bringing in
external resources. It is also a function buyers need in order to prepare processes
for outsourcing prior to transitioning them to providers. Typically, this approach is
more common in organizations less prone to outsourcing, such as those in the public
sector.
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The acute need to reduce costs and overhaul operating models will continue to drive
more outsourcing deal flow into the market. This will become more visible via deals
closing in the second half of 2009, though EquaTerra did see an uptick in closings in
March compared to prior months. Demand for other types of third-party services,
like unbundled consulting and more discretionary application development work, will
remain weak throughout 2009. Protectionist trade policies, anti-outsourcing rhetoric,
and anti-globalization efforts with continue to grow in most western markets but
will have limited impact on overall outsourcing levels, though specific measures will
complicate some specific buyers’ sourcing agendas.
Service providers polled were positive regarding new deal pipeline growth
projections (see Figure 4).
Figure 4
There are no major variations on pipeline growth assessments based on the profile
of the service providers polled. Results are more a function of specific service
provider situations and their existing market traction and capacity levels, rather than
functional outsourcing areas served.
Service providers were optimistic about future outsourcing demand growth (see
Figure 5).
Please note this question is a measure of change in demand growth quarter over
quarter, not absolute demand levels.
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Figure 5
The final chart in this section (see Figure 6) highlights general demand trending
over the past 17 quarters. The weighted average is based on response levels from
both advisors and service providers for each quarter. Any aggregate totals above
the line indicate overall market growth, while totals below the line indicate market
contraction.
Market Growth
Market Contraction
1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09
Figure 6
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• Organizations are looking for ways to reduce costs, defer future investments
and better map costs to their shrunken top lines.
• Organizations are demanding short-term and realistic ROI models on any new
initiatives.
EquaTerra has polled advisors and service providers over the past five quarters as to
how current economic conditions are impacting outsourcing demand levels (see
Figure 7).
• The combined response levels for advisors and service providers show that 45
percent felt market conditions are driving more outsourcing. This level was
down 13 percent from last quarter. Advisors were more likely than service
providers, by a total of 13 percent, to indicate the economy was driving more
outsourcing.
• Advisors in the Americas were more likely than those in Europe to indicate the
economy was driving more outsourcing.
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Figure 7
EquaTerra sees that pent-up outsourcing demand created in the second half of
2008 is now starting to flow faster into the market. Buyers can no longer wait to
significantly respond to bad economic conditions. Change, often radical, is required
to realign costs and operating models to market realities. EquaTerra increasingly is
seeing buyers use troubled times as a motivator to pursue aggressive change efforts
they were too timid or distracted to undertake when times were good. There is a
strong desire to make the deep cuts and major changes to service delivery models
that are required to fundamentally change operating models to better compete with
more aggressive global competition. As one advisor noted, “I see outsourcing plans
being investigated under the current cost pressure that would never have even
been discussed in a normal economic climate.”
Advisors offered the following additional comments on how the current economy is
impacting outsourcing and third-party service usage:
–– “Everyone is looking for value. The faster the speed to value the better.
Significant transformation in terms of dollars needed is being highly
scrutinized as to whether it’s a want or a need.”
–– “In some respects it has paralyzed decision making. Companies that are in
serious trouble are having a hard time affording help. Those that can afford
help are a bit paralyzed. But it looks like things are starting to break loose.
And the service providers are becoming more predatory.”
Service providers added these comments on how the economy is impacting market
demand:
–– “We saw deals in our pipeline slow down considerably in the second half of
last year. Some of those deals are now getting done. And we’re seeing new
deals come into the pipeline now, so yes it looks like companies are inclined
to get something done in 2009.”
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Figure 8
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The most commonly cited response identified by both buyers and service providers
was that buyers are pursuing deals primarily focused on cost savings (vs. process
improvement, access to external talent). This response was ranked at 4.3 on the
one-to-five scale.
Advisors and service providers also agreed that buyers are more commonly pursuing
deals that have short (<12 month) ROI time frames, scoring this option just
below 4.0. This trend is more prevalent in smaller deals and single functional and
geographic areas than in larger, global and multi-tower deals where a 12-month ROI
is unrealistic.
While the trend to de-emphasize the use of Indian service providers was not
commonly cited overall, it was given greater weight by advisors in the Americas
(3.14) than in EMEA (2.57).
ITO
FAO
HRO
1Q09
Procurement 1Q08
1Q07
CC/CRM
Other
Figure 9
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FAO remained the area of top demand cited by service providers in 1Q09 (see Figure
10) and was followed by ITO. It is important to note that demand levels registered in
the Pulse surveys are impacted by the particular outsourcing service providers polled
in any one quarter.
FAO
ITO
HRO
1Q09
CC/CRM 1Q08
1Q07
Other
Procurement
Figure 10
EquaTerra has seen both demand and supply grow for outsourcing services beyond
general and administrative back-office functions over the past two to three years.
These new areas include knowledge process outsourcing (KPO) for functions like
engineering, research and development (R&D), analytics and legal process work,
and financial analysis, modeling and analytics. Some of these functions are specific
to certain industries, such as drug development and clinical trial services in the
pharmaceutical market. There is also outsourcing supply and demand growth in
areas such as document services, facilities and real estate management, and logistics
services. Please refer to prior quarterly Pulse survey reports for more details on
demand trends in these outsourcing areas.
Suppliers targeting these areas in 2009 must balance the desire to build capabilities
and clients in the newer market segments with their ability to continue funding
investments during more challenging economic times. Reduced funding to support
market penetration efforts will slow growth in these areas.
The charts on the following two pages illustrate outsourcing demand by process
area for the four major functional areas – IT, HR, F&A and procurement – covered in
the Pulse surveys.
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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
AR/C&C
AR/C&C
General Accounting
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ADM ADM
Infrastructure/Ops
Infrastructure/Ops
Networks/Telco Networks/Telco
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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Figure 11
Manufacturing
Figure 12
There are several key points to highlight relative to demand by industry. One is
increased strength in demand in the banking and financial services industries. This
is not surprising given the challenges buyers in these sectors are facing and the
need they have to reduce costs. It shows that buyers are still striving to execute
sourcing efforts despite the operational challenges they face. Public sector demand
also remains strong, though it is comprised of a proportionally higher percentage
of non-outsourcing third-party services. Ironically, there are also emerging signs
that newly infused stimulus money is being spent on third-party services. Public
sector organizations are showing increased interest in moving from legacy customer
software application environments to commercial ERP (enterprise resource planning)
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systems as a means to reduce operating costs, and improve and standardize service
delivery models. Finally, energy and utility buyers are very focused on reducing
operational costs through the use of internal shared service operations and
outsourcing.
Sales Cycle
For the purposes of the Pulse surveys, the sales cycle is defined as the time period
from RFP release to contract signing. Many factors contribute to the length of the
sales cycle, including:
The Pulse surveys do not measure the absolute length of sales cycles. EquaTerra
estimates, however, the sales cycle for larger deals (those with more than $50 million
in total contract value, or TCV) that are competitively bid is typically six to 12 months
– barring deal flow disruption -- from the time the buyer goes to the market until the
deal is closed.
Current market trends are contributing to both shortening and lengthening sales
cycles. Smaller deals pursued by more experienced buyers can lead to shorter sales
cycles, as can the use of speed sourcing techniques addressed in last quarter’s
Pulse survey. On the other hand, the complexities associated with multi-sourcing
can complicate the sourcing process and extend the sales cycle, as can considering
more intricate pricing arrangements. EquaTerra sees most buyers today more
intensely scrutinizing pricing models and levels. Global deals also are more complex
to source. The major factor affecting sales cycles over the past year, however, has
been sourcing cycle disruption caused by economic events. EquaTerra expects to see
market conditions complicate the sourcing process, especially in industries currently
in flux (such as financial services), for the balance of 2009.
Figure 13 illustrates sales cycle trends according to service providers polled in this
quarter’s study.
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Figure 13
Pricing Competitiveness
Increased pricing competitiveness implies the buyer has the upper hand and is
getting a better priced outsourcing deal. As pricing is one element of determining
profitability, the alternative of less competitive pricing is generally favorable to the
service provider. The consensus among service providers polled, especially Indian
providers, is that buyers are getting more aggressive with their pricing demands.
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Figure 14
While there is a stronger desire among buyers today to get more aggressive
with pricing, a number of factors can ultimately temper final pricing levels. More
experienced buyers generally are aware that the lowest price may not lead to the
best deal. There is concern now in the market among buyers about entering into
deals today that will fail because of bad pricing. Buyers also can reduce overall spend
– the ultimate goal – by lowering consumption levels, but still pay an equitable unit
price for services that help ensure they get the provider’s top resources.
Providers must still cover their operating costs, overhead, margin and risk. They
continue to look for ways to reduce operating costs and overhead to meet their
current contract commitments and continue to push price competitive policies
regardless of the economic downturn. The net result is more aggressive pricing in
the market, but not routinely egregious pricing terms, at least for top tier service
providers or less desirable buyers.
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Deal Scope
Deal scope is defined as the number of processes, users, geographies, etc., included
in an outsourcing arrangement. Contract value usually is directly correlated to scope,
though the mix of remote/low-cost delivery resources involved also affects contract
value. From the outsourcing buyer’s perspective, understanding trends in scope and
contract value helps not only to determine how aggressively other organizations are
pursuing outsourcing, but also how to define and construct a viable and potentially
optimal-sized deal. The growth of the multi-sourcing/multi-provider outsourcer has
both driven and resulted from smaller deal scope. On average, scope levels have
been flat to declining for the past two years.
Figure 15 illustrates deal scope trends according to service providers polled in this
quarter’s study.
Figure 15
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Over the past year all providers have faced pressure on existing contract profitability.
This has resulted from buyer pricing pressure, more competition for business, buyer
pull-back on more profitable discretionary services, and an increased focus on cost
cutting over process improvement work.
Figure 16
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Figure 17
Capacity also is tightly linked to service provider aggressiveness in deal pursuit. When
service providers are being more selective and entering into fewer deals, as is often
the case in today’s BPO market, they need less capacity for pursuit and delivery. Thus,
capacity is intentionally constrained to keep costs down and to match capacity to
demand goals. As both BPO buyers and service providers focus more on smaller deals
with fewer processes in-scope, capacity pressure also is lessened.
Figures 18 through 20 illustrate combined capacity levels for pursuit and delivery,
and then separately break out the two.
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Figure 18
Figure 19
Figure 20
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• Overall capacity levels remained largely unchanged in the quarter after seeing
gradual improvements over the past year. Twenty-four percent of advisors
overall cited improved capacity, up slightly for the quarter and up nine percent
from 1Q08 (see Figure 18). Twenty-nine percent of advisors cited constrained
or tightening service provider capacity, down one percent year over year.
• Capacity for sales pursuit and deal structuring (see Figure 19) constricted
slightly. Twenty-nine percent of advisors cited constrained levels, up for the
fourth straight quarter and the highest level since 4Q07. Sales pursuit capacity
is dually impacted by more supplier selectivity (improves capacity) and more
market demand (strains capacity, especially as service providers manage down
pursuit costs).
• Capacity levels for deal transition and delivery continued to improve (see
Figure 20). Constrained or tightening citation levels came in at 29 percent,
down quarter over quarter and year over year. Twenty-two percent of advisors
indicated transition capacity was adequate, up from 11 percent last quarter.
Delivery capacity improvement is largely a function of service provider
selectivity in deal pursuit.
Both sales and delivery capacity vary across functional areas of outsourcing and
across different supplier classes. Sales capacity is less constrained for larger global
deals (cited by just 13 percent of advisors) and more constrained in the Americas (37
percent of advisors) than in Europe (28 percent of advisors). Transition and delivery
capacity also was more constrained in the Americas than Europe (41 percent and
23 percent respectively) and in BPO compared to ITO (39 percent compared to 17
percent respectively).
Digging into the reasons for positive and negative changes in service provider
capacity, EquaTerra advisors offered the following comments.
• Pursuit capacity
• Delivery capacity
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Not surprisingly, outsourcing service providers typically have been more optimistic
about their own capacity. Figure 21 illustrates contract pursuit and delivery capacity
trends according to service providers polled in this quarter’s study.
Providers concurred that more client and deal selectivity is helping to improve sales
pursuit capacity levels. The ongoing expansion of global delivery footprints similarly is
helping improve transition and delivery capacity. On the issue of the quality of sales
or pursuit capacity, advisors and services providers continue to have differences of
opinion.
Figure 21
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EquaTerra queried both advisors and service providers as to how market conditions
are impacting existing outsourcing deals in the market. Respondents were asked to
rank on a one-to-five scale how different buyer responses were to market conditions
relative to their outsourcing efforts.
• The most common response cited by advisors was that buyers are opening
deals up to get better pricing (3.74 on the one-to-five scale). This was the
second most common response cited by service providers (3.20), who ranked
as most common the buyers’ efforts to meaningfully scrutinize existing deals
from a governance and supplier financial risk perspective. Advisors gave
high scores to this response.
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Opening up deals up
to get better pricing
Scrutinizing existing deals
relative to risk
Opening up deals up to change
other deal terms/conditions
Overhauling governance
operating models
Service Providers
Investing more in governance
Advisors
Shifting more work
onshore/nearshore
Pulling work back
offshore altogether
Figure 22
Overall, both buyers and service providers indicated that market conditions were
having at least somewhat of a negative impact on buyer outsourcing governance
operations (see Figure 23). Sixty-five percent of advisors indicated conditions were
having a minor negative impact and 20 percent cited a major negative impact.
Advisors in Europe were more likely than those in the Americas (26 percent and 10
percent respectively) to indicate conditions were having a major negative impact.
Service providers were more sanguine, with 44 percent indicating market conditions
having no material impact on buyer outsourcing governance efforts and just six
percent citing a major negative impact.
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Figure 23
There was a general consensus between advisors and service providers about how
market conditions were negatively impacting buyer outsourcing governance efforts
(see Figure 24).
• The most common response cited by advisors (3.34 on the same one-to-
five scale) was that uncertain organizational future state conditions
are complicating pending renewal and renegotiation efforts. This was
the second most common response identified by service providers after
inadequate support from distracted executives and management (rated
3.39 by service providers and 3.24 by advisors).
• Advisors were more likely than service providers to cite declines in the quality
of service provider services and declines in the levels of service provider
support and communications as problems created by current economic
conditions.
Figure 24
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Excellent 70%
ep d
Good 64%
s/c
t t
e
Average 57%
e
u t
Weak 53%
e t c on t t r c pr de ( )
Figure 25
Recent market events have made many buyers more nervous about global sourcing
efforts. Terrorist attacks in India, the financial problems experienced by Satyam,
and the global economic turmoil in general have made business-as-usual difficult,
if not impossible, to maintain. Buyers can account for and defend against risk when
entering into new global sourcing efforts in many ways. The bigger issue for many
buyers, however, is addressing risk in already established global sourcing efforts that
were deployed when market conditions were better and attention to risk often not
great enough. Please refer to last quarter’s Pulse whitepaper, as well this webcast, for
EquaTerra’s advice on how to address and manage risk in global sourcing efforts.
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The research unveils direct insights into buyer opinions on service provider
performance levels, also assessing and interpreting general outsourcing demand and
activity trends in the markets covered. Market coverage and due dates for the next
editions of these studies are as follows:
Figure 26 provides another snapshot of the results from the Pan-European ITO
performance and satisfaction study. It illustrates general satisfaction levels for buyers
in application management (AM), infrastructure management (IM) and end-user
management (EUM) outsourcing efforts. In all cases, over 65 percent of respondents
were somewhat satisfied, satisfied, or very satisfied with their outsourcing efforts and
service providers’ performance levels. This is a positive endorsement of the success
that European buyers are having with their ITO efforts.
Figure 26
EquaTerra also conducted a service provider Pulse survey in the Netherlands this
quarter in parallel with the global advisor and service provider Pulse surveys. We will
release the results from the Dutch study in May 2009. For additional details on this
research offering and copies of executive summary reports for all of these research
efforts, please contact: research@equaterra.com.
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Deal Snapshot
EquaTerra estimates approximately 100 outsourcing deals (in ITO and the functional
BPO areas covered in the Pulse surveys) with greater than $50 million in TCV were
announced in 1Q09. Average TCV for these deals was approximately $260 million.
This compares to approximately 120 deals with an average TCV of $225 million in
4Q08. Two very large U.S. defense industry deals -- Verizon and the Department of
Defense for $2.5B, Lockheed Martin and U.S. Special Operations Command for $5B
-- skewed up the average deal size in the quarter.
Less than 20 of these 1Q09 deals were purely BPO, with an average deal size of
approximately $150 million TCV. When estimating the number of new deals and
average TCV, it is important to recognize that some deals are not publicly announced
or the deal details are not provided. The ultimate TCV of a deal also is likely to change
over the life of the contract. There were approximately 180 total BPO and ITO deals
with TCV levels greater than $25 million in the quarter, down from 225 in 4Q08.
Following is a select list of some of the top deals announced in 1Q09. The greatest
level of market activity during this quarter occurred in the military/aerospace
segments.
• IBM win estimated at approximately €360M over seven years with ENDESA
(Spanish/Latin American utility). IBM will provide various IT infrastructure
services to ENDESA and its clients in Spain and Latin America.
• IBM win estimated at approximately $500M over seven years with Kaiser
Permanente. IBM will provide data center operations and application
management services.
• EDS/HP win estimated at approximately £700M over 10 years with Aviva (UK
insurance). EDS/HP will provide a full range of data center services.
• Verizon win estimated at approximately $2.5B over 10 years with the U.S.
Department of Defense (Defense Information System Network Transmission
Services). Verizon will provide a broad range of telecommunications and
network services to military installations globally.
• Lockheed Martin win estimated at $5B over 10 years with the U.S. Special
Operations Command. Lockheed Martin will provide logistics services, including
IT network and infrastructure management.
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• HCL Technologies win estimated at $350M over seven years with Reader’s
Digest. HCL Technologies will provide IT infrastructure and network services
globally.
• Recompetes/Renegotiations
• Cancellations/Non-renewals
• Problem Contracts
These results are provided for informational purposes only and to highlight ongoing
market directional trending. They do not represent actual deal total in any of the
categories profiled. The number of service providers citing increased levels of
recompetes and renegotiations rose to 45 percent, the highest level ever recorded
in the Pulse survey. Cancellation and problem account levels remained largely
unchanged.
Figure 27
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Figure 28
Up Same Down
Figure 29
Conclusion
EquaTerra offers the following conclusions from the 1Q09 Pulse survey:
• BPO and ITO market demand growth improved in 1Q09 according to EquaTerra
advisors and third-party business and IT service providers polled. Signs indicate
this trend will continue during the rest of 2009. Pent-up buyer demand created
but not consummated in the second half of 2008 is now making it to market.
Uncertain market conditions and turmoil within individual buyer accounts will
continue to slow or stop some sourcing efforts, albeit less frequently.
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• Market conditions overall are driving more demand for outsourcing, but the
nature of the demand continues to change. Buyers are increasing pricing
pressure on service providers and are demanding more upfront and clearly
defined costs savings. The deal sizes are smaller and there is a strong focus on
cost savings and cost avoidance. Pricing pressure varies based on the quality
and desirability of both the buyer and the service provider.
• Market conditions are causing some buyers to push to open up existing deals
for better pricing and other terms and conditions. Buyers for the most part are
not pulling back from existing outsourcing efforts, global sourcing or the use of
offshore-based service providers.
• Global sourcing efforts will face more scrutiny in 2009 given market events
(e.g., terrorist attacks in India, Satyam implosion and local unemployment
trends), but will continue to grow. Buyers will increase focus and improve
abilities to address and account for risk in global sourcing efforts.
• Buyers in 2009 will migrate and consolidate third-party service work to larger
and more established providers in a flight to quality, but also to gain economies
of scale and preferred pricing, terms and conditions. Leading service providers
will remain selective in the clients and the business they pursue while tier two
and below providers will scramble for whatever business they can get.
• Service provider capacity for deal pursuit is improving, though this is largely a
function of more service provider selectivity and discretion around the deals
and clients they choose to pursue. Service provider capacity for deal transition
and delivery also is improving.
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Appendix - Key Questions by Advisors’ Primary Geography and Outsourcing Focus Area
Question Response Total Global Americas EMEA ITO BPO BPO & ITO
Up 49% 58% 47% 42% 47% 43% 52%
Demand -
Flat 41% 42% 44% 41% 39% 44% 43%
Overall
Down 10% 0% 9% 17% 14% 12% 5%
BPO 22% 27% 28% 12% 6% 52% 17%
ITO 59% 40% 52% 71% 75% 24% 75%
Demand - By
Other IT services 7% 20% 3% 5% 6% 5% 4%
Service Model
Internal improvement 15% 13% 17% 12% 14% 19% 4%
Other IT services 5% 7% 6% 10% 10% 15% 9%
Demand - By Service Model - Change
Up 49% 53% 50% 46% 54% 37% 58%
BPO Flat 39% 47% 46% 29% 31% 41% 42%
Down 12% 0% 4% 25% 15% 22%
Up 56% 69% 59% 50% 51% 33% 76%
ITO Flat 35% 31% 30% 40% 38% 53% 24%
Down 9% 0% 11% 10% 11% 13%
Up 21% 38% 29% 9% 20% 36% 13%
Other IT
Flat 62% 63% 59% 64% 60% 55% 69%
services
Down 17% 0% 12% 27% 20% 9% 19%
Up 60% 73% 50% 62% 63% 67% 61%
Internal imp. Flat 34% 27% 41% 31% 26% 29% 39%
Down 6% 0% 9% 7% 11% 5%
Service SP capacity is constrained/tightening 29% 13% 37% 28% 32% 33% 18%
Provider
SP capacity is unchanged 45% 67% 40% 41% 44% 42% 50%
Capacity -
Pursuit SP capacity is adequate/increasing 26% 20% 23% 31% 24% 25% 32%
Service SP capacity is constrained/tightening 29% 25% 41% 23% 17% 39% 38%
Provider
SP capacity is unchanged 49% 63% 37% 51% 63% 35% 43%
Capacity -
Delivery SP capacity is adequate/increasing 22% 13% 22% 26% 20% 26% 19%
Driving more outsourcing 51% 63% 65% 37% 42% 48% 60%
Economy Slowing/rethinking outsourcing plans 44% 31% 32% 58% 56% 52% 28%
Little/no impact 4% 6% 3% 5% 3% 0% 12%
Adding new business w’ existing SPs 3.47 3.75 3.50 3.36 3.42 3.55 3.48
Consolidating business w’ large, tier one SPs 2.91 3.08 2.91 2.85 2.90 2.90 3.15
Market De-emphasizing use of Indian SPs 2.78 2.73 3.14 2.57 2.75 2.84 2.70
Conditions: Focusing more on onshore/nearshore 3.01 2.75 3.16 3.00 3.07 3.18 2.75
Impact on Pursuing deals smaller in scope 3.72 3.92 3.69 3.68 3.55 3.96 3.81
New Deals Pursuing deals focused on cost savings 4.30 3.93 4.37 4.38 4.27 4.42 4.30
Pursuing deals that have short ROI timeframes 3.84 3.36 4.07 3.84 3.78 3.96 3.86
Pushing SPs to finance/defer/absorb upfront costs 3.82 3.77 3.75 3.89 3.84 3.83 3.81
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Scrutinizing existing deals relative to risk 3.66 3.50 3.48 3.83 3.64 3.52 4.00
Opening up deals up to get better pricing 3.74 3.29 3.74 3.90 3.72 3.57 4.11
Market Opening up deals up to change other deal terms/
3.59 3.64 3.42 3.68 3.49 3.52 3.90
Conditions: conditions
Impact on Shifting more work onshore/nearshore 2.54 2.07 2.81 2.56 2.45 2.35 2.74
Existing Deals Pulling work back offshore altogether 2.06 2.00 1.90 2.17 2.10 2.17 1.95
Investing more in governance 3.01 2.93 3.05 3.03 3.15 3.05 2.75
Overhauling governance operating models 3.42 3.38 3.36 3.47 3.47 3.50 3.25
Market Major Negative 20% 20% 10% 26% 22% 25% 14%
Conditions:
Impact on Minor Negative 65% 73% 72% 57% 58% 54% 82%
Outsourcing
Governance No Material 15% 7% 17% 17% 19% 21% 5%
OG team budget/staff cuts 3.27 3.14 3.38 3.24 3.22 3.44 3.36
Retained organization, budget staff/cuts 3.29 3.14 3.32 3.33 3.17 3.42 3.38
Market Inadequate support from execs/mgmnt 3.29 3.57 3.31 3.18 3.14 3.16 3.71
Conditions: Outsourcing deal out of sync with current ops 3.19 2.86 3.16 3.34 2.97 3.32 3.65
Impact on Uncertain organization future complicating
3.34 3.07 3.28 3.49 3.26 3.68 3.17
Outsourcing renewal/renegotiation
Governance Decline in the quality of SP services 2.74 2.36 2.96 2.74 2.67 2.74 2.79
Declines in the levels of SP support 2.71 2.43 2.96 2.67 2.73 2.47 2.68
Uncertainty over future SP stability/viability 3.01 2.57 3.12 3.12 3.06 2.90 3.00
Service Provider Responsiveness to Changing Buyer Needs 2.99 3.36 2.93 2.91 2.87 3.00 3.17
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