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Background Brief United States: Implications of Obamas No Show in Southeast Asia Carlyle A. Thayer October 4, 2013

[client name deleted] We request your assessment about the cancellation of US President Barack Obama's travels to the Southeast Asia region as a result of the US government shutdown. Mr Obama has cancelled his visits to Malaysia and the Philippines next week, and also his attendance at the APEC Leaders Summit in Bali, the East Asia Summit and the US-ASEAN Summit in Brunei. Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping is visiting Indonesia and Malaysia, while Premier Li Keqiang is visiting Thailand, Vietnam and Brunei for the East Asia Summit. Our specific concerns are as follows: Q1- How will/should countries in the region view Mr Obama's no-show and how would it impact the US' standing/influence in the region, and why? ANSWER: Countries in the region are well aware of special circumstances in which ASEAN heads of government/state have had to pull out of summit commitments because of internal domestic politics in the past. The leaders of Southeast Asian countries most closely allied with the US will understand the reasons why President Obama has had to cancel his visit. But the wider circle of political elites and many regional academics will seize on this as an indication that that the US rebalance is not an absolute but a contingent commitment. From the moment he took office President Obama has led from the top in engaging ASEAN and Southeast Asia. Recall Hillary Clintons cry, we are back! The posit ive impact of Obamas engagement with Southeast Asia in his first and early years of the second term have now been set back. It is not so much the President has cancelled his visit, but the disarray and divisions in American domestic politics that creates uncertainty in the region over the future Obamas policy of rebalancing. For countries not closely allied with the US, Obamas no show will reinforce their policy of bandwagoning with China. Q2- In turn, how would Mr Obama's no-show impact China's relations with ASEAN as a grouping and individual ASEAN countries, particularly those like the Philippines and Vietnam that are logged in maritime disputes with China? Is China able to take advantage or are there challenges it faces, and why?

2 ANSWER: President Obamas single handedly revived the ASEAN-US Leaders Meeting. A year ago this was elevated to the ASEAN-US Summit. Obamas no show will be a huge setback, reviving memories of the Bush Administrations no show. It will be another year before this round of summits is back on the calendar. Two ASEAN countries will be affected the most Malaysia and the Philippines. Malaysia has engaged with China economically, and has quietly engaged with the US militarily. Malaysia also joined the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TRPP) group, Obamas no show will aid Malaysian critics of the TPP. Malaysia was due to host separate visits by Obama and Xi Jinping. Malaysias approach to balance these two major powers will become more difficult in the wake of Obamas no show. The Philippines is a US treaty ally. Obamas cancellation will come as a bitter disappointment because he has visited other countries in the region but not the Philippines. Obamas visit would have provided the occasion for an announcement on where the Philippines-US Joint Vision Statement is headed. In Vietnams case, it is clear that no visit by Obama to Hanoi was forthcoming this year despite Vietnamese lobbying. President Obama did promise his Vietnamese counterpart in July that he would try his best to visit before his term in office ended. More importantly, Secretary Hagel is due to visit Vietnam next year. This will suit Vietnam in its delicate approach to balancing Beijing and Washington. China has to do little to reap benefits from the dysfunctional political system in the United States that has hobbled the worlds most powerful country. But nothing in Obamas cancellation will affect the current balance of power and US naval primacy in the western Pacific. The nuts and bolts of rebalancing in the defence and security realm will continue. Even as Obama is grounded by domestic in-fighting, Secretary of State John Kerry is in Japan shoring up the alliance, while Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel is in South Korea overseeing the evolution of that alliance. Q3- So far, the Chinese media have been quite muted in its reports/commentary on the US government shutdown and Mr Obama's no-show. What are the possible reasons? ANSWER: China has long preached non-interference in the internal affairs of other states. The Chinese government therefore will be circumspect in its reaction. Chinese leaders have an interest in Obama showing up because this would have provided the presidents of the two countries another opportunity to discuss bilateral issues and regional security. The Chinese media, especially publications that appear independent of the government, will have a field day as academic commentators offer their opinions on Americas demise. All in all Obama cancellation of his planned visit to four Southeast Asian states and attendance at three summit meetings is a devastating blow to the Presidents policy of engagement with Southeast Asia. Only the United States could press for discussion of maritime security, cyber and non-proliferation at the East Asia Summit. Americas allies would have chimed in with their support. Without Obama many countries, including Australia, will pull their punches. They prefer to follow the leader rather than take the point (leadership role).

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, United States: Implications of Obamas No Show in Southeast Asia, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 4, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.