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45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 1
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanomaterial Forecast: Volumes
and Applications
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 3
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Agenda
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 4
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
The nanotechnology value chain
Nano-enabled
Nanomaterials Nanointermediates products
Nanoscale Intermediate
Finished goods
structures in products with
incorporating
unprocessed nanoscale
nanotechnology
form features
Nanoparticles, Coatings, fabrics, memory Cars, clothing, airplanes,
nanotubes, quantum and logic chips, contrast computers, consumer
dots, fullerenes, media, optical components, electronics devices,
dendrimers, nanoporous orthopedic materials, pharmaceuticals, processed
materials… superconducting wire… food, plastic containers,
appliances…
Nanotools
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 5
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanotechnology will impact $2.9 trillion worth of
products across the value chain by 2014
Sales of products incorporating nanotechnology, 2005 to 2014
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
Sales
$1,500
($ billions)
$1,000
$500
$0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Forecast based on Lux Research’s value chain ontology, secondary research, and more than 100
interviews with executives, thought leaders, and academics. Projections were triangulated from bottom-up,
top-down, analogical, and third-party market estimates, as well as advanced evolutionary models.
Source: Lux Research Report “Sizing Nanotechnology’s Value Chain”
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 6
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Example value chains for specific nano-enabled
products
Nano-enabled
Nanomaterials Nanointermediates products
Clay Clay/poly-
nanoparticles propylene 2004 Chevrolet
(Southern Clay nanocomposite Impala
Products) (Basell) (GM)
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 7
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanotechnology funding reached $12.4 billion worldwide
in 2006
By source By region
$0.65 $0.32
$4.0 $4.4
$6.4
$5.3
$3.6
US$ billions US$ billions
North America Europe
Government Corporate Venture capital
Asia Rest of world
Lux Research Reference Study “The Nanotech Report, 4th Edition”; Reports “How Industry Leaders Organize for Nanotech
Innovation”; “Profiting from International Nanotechnology”; “Exits for Venture Capitalists in Nanotechnology Remain Elusive”
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 8
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Agenda
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 9
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanomaterials: Ceramic nanoparticles
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 10
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanomaterials: Metal nanoparticles
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 11
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanomaterials: Nanoporous materials
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 12
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanomaterials: Carbon nanotubes
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 13
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanomaterials: Nanostructured metals
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 14
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanomaterials: Dendrimers
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 15
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanomaterials: Quantum dots
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 16
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanomaterials: Fullerenes
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 17
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanomaterials: Nanowires
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 18
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanomaterials: Other important categories
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 19
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Agenda
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 20
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Journal articles on EHS implications by nanomaterial
60
10
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
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2002
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2005
2006
Carbon nanotubes Ceramic nanoparticles Fullerenes
Metal nanoparticles Molecular aggregates Other
Sources: ICON database (icon.rice.edu), review articles, literature searches
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 21
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
EHS research doesn’t follow commercial activity
$700 $45
27
$89
83 $901
77
$6,300
$179
Source: Lux Research/ICON US$ thousands US$ millions
Source: Wilson Center Source: Lux Research
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 22
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
IP density also indicates potential future applications
s ts s les
es on es er do re
s cle ic
m rtic els
en rb tub rim m i al arti a og
r a nd tu ow et p er pa r
lle C no an n M no C no Ae
Fu na De Q u Na na na
General
Energy
Optics
Electronics
Healthcare/
cosmetics
Other
Low white Challenge
space likely
Platform
overall
Total
patents
235 446 262 387 76 403 635 294
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 23
Source: June 2006 Lux Research Report New“Nanotech
York, NY 10017IP Battles
• +1 Worth Fighting.”
888 589 7373 Lux on
Assessment Research found
January 9, 2007 4,986
by Michael nanotechnology
Holman, Senior Analyst patents
covering 102,651 claims, and did claim-by-claim analysis of eight nanomaterials covering 2,646 patents and 49,807 claims.
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Firms need to handle three aspects of nanotech EHS…
Rat exposed to cobalt nanoparticles on the Protest of the use of Nano-Tex fabric Text of the Environmental Protection
left side, bulk cobalt on the right side treatment outside an Eddie Bauer store Agency’s Toxic Substances Control Act
Best case: Nanomaterials prove to be Best case: Consumers appreciate the Best case: Existing regulatory
more dangerous than ordinary substances benefits nanomaterials can offer and frameworks case be painlessly adapted to
in only a handful of cases embrace the technology manage nanomaterials
Worst case: Studies show that many Worst case: Nanotech comes to be seen Worst case: Risks drive regulators to
nanomaterials have elevated hazard and as synonymous with danger and impose stringent testing requirements on
are more difficult to control consumers are reluctant to accept it all nanomaterials
Michael Holman
Senior Analyst
+1 646 723 0161
michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
www.luxresearchinc.com
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 25
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Studies have shifted toward hazard
50
10
2006
1988
1990
1995
1997
2005
1987
1989
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1998
2004
1999
2002
1986
2000
2001
2003
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
Hazard Exposure
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 26
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Inhalation has been the main exposure route studied
60
25% 35%
Peer- 40
reviewed
journal
30
articles on 5%
nanotech 3%
6%
EHS 20
22%
10
0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1996
1997
1998
1999
2006
1987
1992
1993
1994
1995
2005
1982
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1980
1981
1983
1984
1985
1986
Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 27
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanomaterial categories
$1,600
2005 2010
$1,200
$800
US$
millions
$400
$0
ts
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Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 28
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com
Nanointermediate categories
$10,000
2005 2010
$8,000
$6,000
US$
millions $4,000
$2,000
$0
y
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Lux Research Inc. • 140 E. 45th Sti, 30th Floor Presented at the Presented at the ICON NanoEHS Research Needs 29
New York, NY 10017 • +1 888 589 7373 Assessment on January 9, 2007 by Michael Holman, Senior Analyst
www.luxresearchinc.com +1 646 723 0161 • michael.holman@luxresearchinc.com