AKD Commodities

September 26, 2013

Commodity Gold Silver Oil
S&P GSCI Index
2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 777.95

Technical View Buy on Weakness Neutral Neutral

Global Developments:

Initial claims for U.S. unemployment benefits may have risen to 325K in the week to Sept. 21, from 309K in the previous week, while the National Association of Realtors may say its index of pending home sales fell 1% last month from July, when it slid 1.3%. GDP in the U.S., probably expanded 2.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an earlier reading for a 2.5 percent gain, according to the median of economists forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Yesterday, orders for goods meant to last at least 3 years in the U.S. surprisingly climbed in August, signaling strength in business spending. Demand for all durable goods such as machinery and computers, rose 0.1% after plunging 8.1% in July against the analyst expected a drop of 0.1%. Excluding transportation equipment, where demand is often volatile month to month, orders declined 0.1% after a 0.5% drop in July. Furthermore on the other hand sales of new U.S. homes cheerfully climbed in August following two of the worst months this year, indicating that the record-high mortgage rates still has its effect on the housing sector and its recovery. U.S. dollar slipped in U.S. trading Wednesday pulled down by fears over the budget impasses in Washington which could induce a government shutdown next week. The deadlock over the federal budget may influence the next set of negotiations over raising the $16.7 trillion U.S. borrowing limit, which the Treasury Department said will be reached by Oct. 17. A lack of clarity over how long the U.S. central bank will delay scaling back stimulus has also weighed on the dollar. The yen dropped amid speculation the government will study a reduction in the nations corporate tax rate. Japanese big manufacturers' mood improved in 3QCY13, the Bank of Japan's key survey is likely to show next week, underlining an economic recovery backed by firm private spending and pickup in exports. Oil declined after EIA said U.S. stockpiles increased 2.64 million barrels last week, compared with the 1 million-barrel decrease forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. WTI rose to a two-year high on Aug. 28 amid concern that a U.S.-led assault would widen the Syrian conflict and disrupt Middle East exports. The region accounted for 35 percent of global oil output in the first quarter of this year, according to the International Energy Agency

1,068.65

633.82

914.13

-0.5%
-1.0% S&P GSCI Index

562.64

Brent Crude Index

Crude Oil Gold Index Silver Index Index

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar Index
84

82

Event Calendar
80

Time PST 1:30pm 1:30pm

Country GBP GBP USD USD USD USD Curre nt Account Fi na l GDP q/q

Event

Actual

Forecast -11.2B 0.70% 319K 2.70% -0.90%

Previous -14.5B 0.70% 309K 2.50% -1.30%

Source: Forex Factory

78

Nov-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Jul-13

Mar-12

May-12

Mar-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-12

Jan-13

5:30pm 5:30pm 7:00pm 7:10pm

Une mpl oyme nt Cl a i ms Fi na l GDP q/q Pe ndi ng Home Sa l e s m/m FOMC Me mbe r Ste i n Spe a ks

Source: Bloomberg

International Currencies:

TRJ-CRB Index
335 325 315 305 295 285 275 265

SPOT Dollar Index USD/JPY EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD CHF/USD CAD/USD USD/KRW CNY/USD
Sep-12 Jul-13
Jul-12

Current 80.412 98.930 1.352 1.609 0.939 0.829 0.910 1.031 1,075 6.119

Previous 80.334 98.430 1.353 1.608 0.937 0.824 0.909 1.031 1,077 6.120

Chg +/0.078 0.500 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.005 0.000 0.000 -2.040 0.000

CYTD Chg% 0.29% 28.63% 4.34% 3.55% -7.98% 6.64% -3.04% 0.98% -6.70% -2.79%

Jun End-12 81.627 79.790 1.267 1.571 1.024 0.801 0.949 1.017 1,145 6.354

Dec End-11 80.178 76.910 1.296 1.554 1.021 0.777 0.938 1.021 1,152 6.295

May-12

Source: Bloomberg

May-13

Mar-12

Nov-12

Mar-13

Sep-13

Jan-12

Jan-13

Source: Bloomberg ( PST 10:00am)

AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Ltd.

info@akdcommodities.com +92-21-35303032

Copyright2012 AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided in this document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Limited or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Limited or its affiliates to buy or sell any commodities/FX or provide any investment advice or service. AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Limited does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

AKD Commodities
September 26, 2013

Technical Analysis
World Gold Reserves

Gold - XAU
MT
1380 1360 1340 1320 1300 1280 1260 1240 1220 1200 1180

US$bn 12,000 10,000

Market Flow: Gold (spot) Monday settled 0.084% up at US$1334.36/ounce from an intra-day high of US$1338.14/ounce after setting a low of US$1316.76/ounce.

8,000
6,000 4,000

Daily Chart

2,000 Aug-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13
W o rld Gol d R eserve s SP DR Ho l di n g(R H S)

Source: Bloomberg

Closing Snapshot
Close High Low Chg (%) 14D RSI 50-DMA 100-DMA 200-DMA 1,334.36 1,338.14 1,316.76 0.84 46.09 1,347.75 1,344.21 1,468.00

Intraday Support Levels

S1 S2 S3 1,325.00 1,308.00 1,297.00

Technical View
Last quoted at US$1331 Minute consolidation continues around 1325. Need a break above 1361 1369 to go bullish for 1397 and 1433. On the downside, slippage below 1297 1291 would expose pressure towards 1252. Buy with risk below 1307.

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1 R2 R3 1,342.00 1361-1369 1,397.00

Daily Momentum Data

Minor Averages (5,10,15 MAs) MACD STS Negative Negative Negative

Qasim Anwar Technical Analyst

AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Ltd. info@akdcommodities.com +92-21-35303032

AKD Commodities
September 26, 2013

Technical Analysis
Gold/Silver Ratio

Silver - XAG
Market Flow: Silver (spot) Monday made an intra-high of US$21.94/ounce after making a low of US$21.48/ounce. Silver settled the day 0.44% up at US$21.80/ ounce.

59 57 55 53
51 49 47 45
Oct-12 Jul-12

Daily Chart

Apr-12

Source: Bloomberg

Closing Snapshot
Close High Low Chg (%) 14D RSI 50-DMA 100-DMA 200-DMA 21.80 21.94 21.48 0.44 44.32 21.92 21.61 25.13

Intraday Support Levels

S1 S2 S3 21.34 20.75 20.38

Apr-13

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Technical View
Last quoted at US$21.77 Minute consolidation continues around 21.34. Strength past 21.94 is needed to allow recovery towards 22.31 and 22.91. On the downside, a relapse below 21.34 21.90 would expose pressure towards 20.75 and 20.38. Trade accordingly.

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1 R2 R3 21.94 22.31 22.91

Daily Momentum Data

Minor Averages (5,10,15 MAs) MACD STS Negative Negative Negative

AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Ltd. info@akdcommodities.com +92-21-35303032

AKD Commodities
September 26, 2013

Technical Analysis
Brent vs. WTI Oil Spread (US$/bbl)
31
26 21 16 11 6

Oil - WTI
Market Flow: Crude futures (June 2013) Monday made an the intra-day low of 102.20/bbl and made an intraday high of US$103.96/bbl and settled the day 0.46% down at US$102.66/bbl on session close.

Daily Chart

Jan-

Jun-

Jan-

Oct-

Jun-

Mar

Mar

Source: Bloomberg

Closing Snapshot
Close High Low Chg (%) 14D RSI 50-DMA 100-DMA 200-DMA 102.66 103.96 102.20 -0.46 38.64 106.51 101.85 97.40

Intraday Support Levels

S1 S2 S3 101.22 97.94 0.00

Aug

Aug

Technical View

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1 R2 R3 103.25 104.89 106.52

Last quoted at US$102.52 Expect further weakness towards 101.22 with immediate resistance around 103.25 Need a break above 104.89 for recovery towards 106.52 Sell on strength / Reverse positions above 104.89

Daily Momentum Data

Minor Averages (5,10,15 MAs) MACD STS Negative Negative Negative

AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Ltd. info@akdcommodities.com +92-21-35303032