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THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER

SATURDAY, MAY 9, 2009


050909 (3)_IF
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An international financial, economic, political and social commentary.

Published and Edited by: Bob Chapman


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WEDNESDAY, MAY 13, 2009
SATURDAY, MAY 16, 2009
WEDNESDAY, MAY 20, 2009
SATURDAY, MAY 23, 2009
WEDNESDAY, MAY 27, 2009
SATURDAY, MAY 30, 2009

US MARKETS
On Friday the dollar completely broke down, with the USDX collapsing to about
82.5, as monetizations by the Fed became a stark reality. A world stock market collapse
could be imminent as a source of dollar support. We wonder how low they will let the
dollar go before they collapse the stock markets to chase people back into US
treasuries, which have also broken down, with treasury interest rates on the rise despite
various Fed purchases of treasuries in the hundreds of billions. So much for the bogus
stress tests as things turn much uglier than anticipated by the boneheads in Goldman
Sachs South who are attempting to resurrect the Goldilocks Matrix. The suckers rally is
simply the loading and winding of a catapult meant to throw the dollar upward as the
stock market spring unwinds at the moment chosen by the PPT, which moment has
already been telegraphed to Illuminist insiders for their continued looting of the sheople
and for the filthy aggrandizement of their growing mountain of ill-gotten gains. The stock
market shorts are being set up in the dark pools of liquidity beyond the purview of
regulators as this article is being written, so if you plug yourself back into the pod
electrodes of the Goldilocks Matrix again, you are in for a major shock.
Stock market rallies aimed at sucking in sheople-dupes based on bogus hedonic
financial statistics, fairytale financial statements, fascistic injections of monopoly money
into the economy and false Goldilocks news spin will continue on as a source of insider
trading profits and as a ready source of capital to boost the dying dollar. As the world's
stock markets collapse in sympathy with the US stock markets as the PPT withdraws its
support globally, stocks around the world will be sold off, and the proceeds will be
channeled into the perceived safe-haven of US treasuries. This boosts the dollar
because sales proceeds from the liquidation of foreign stocks that are denominated in
foreign currencies are exchanged for dollars in order to purchase US treasuries, thereby
creating a dramatic demand for dollars. Sell into this current stock market strength and
get out of the stock markets, or prepare to get vaporized by an Illuminist laser beam that
is being focused on the sheople for a nice roasting so the elitists can enjoy some more
mutton chops while they watch the dollar anti-gravity machine perform its magic for their
entertainment and profit. Also, a dollar boost provides some assistance for carrying out
JOB ONE at the Fed, which is gold suppression, so you can take a stock decline to the
bank based on that principle alone.
The Consumers Confidence Index, the lowest since records began in 1967 came
off the bottom in March, just barely. The market has rallied 30% off its bottom, just as it
did in 1933, and we are told by Wall Street and Washington that the recession is over.
Housing starts are off 80.4% from three years ago. We forecast 75% would have been
sufficient, but in a depression things are different. The question is how long will starts
bump along the bottom with as 12.2-month inventory? Healthy markets have a 5-month
overhang - not to mention used home inventory. Prices are off 20% or more and the
median may eventually fall 40%. Buying in this atmosphere is foolhardy at best. Then
again, a fool and his money are soon parted.
Job losses result in foreclosure 15% of the time and if the monthly average of
570,000 in the first quarter falls to 325,000, almost 3 million jobs will be lost by yearend
and another 450,000 foreclosures and an unemployment rate of 11%. Experts say

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another 7.8 million jobs will be lost by the end of 2009, and industrial production will fall
another 17%. This would cause the loss of 5.1 million more jobs as opposed to 2 million.
Industrial production was off 12.8% yoy, as capacity utilization fell to 69.3%, the
lowest since records began in 1967. At the same time the amount of excess capacity
utilization is unprecedented. Never mind lost jobs, the economy has to create 125,000
jobs a month just to absorb new entrants into the labor market. It will be at least six
years before employment will grow again under the best of circumstances. We are
already in a depression as bad as in the 1930s.
The elitists continue to throw money at the problem and after 75 years of going to
the well, the debt structure is unsustainable. That is with many years of inflation. We all
know as professionals what has to happen as a result of these policies. Then to add to
the madness some economists have suggested negative interest rates. The act of the
Fed lending money and paying you to borrow the funds. This supposedly would increase
economic activity. The theory is for the Fed to increase inflation, which would make cash
trash and force people to spend. There is a problem with that theory other than it won’t
work and that is people can buy gold and silver with their depreciating dollars. Even if
they do not go up they’ll hold their value, something the dollar won’t do under those
circumstances. All current problems can be traced to low interest rates and
unsustainable levels of borrowing and spending. This theory in the long run increases
the problem and causes further monetization. Such ideas as usual emanate from
Harvard, that seat of illuminist intellectual power, the August hub of learning, which
bestowed a master’s degree on that idiot George W. Bush. Am I happy I chose
Northeastern instead.
The negative interest policy has been put forward by former White House Chief
Economist and Harvard professor of economics Gregory Mankiw. He wants to target
interest rates at a negative 3%. You could borrow $100.00 from the Fed and pay back
$97.00. Gregory believes zero interest rates are not working and he is right. Does he
really believe negative rates of 3% would work better? We don’t think so. The
psychology of spending has been dead-ended just as the lust for real estate. It will take
sometime to build a new spending foundation and a new spending psychology. We
forecast this would happen and the only way this can be offset is by massive injections
of more money and credit to offset these very negative factors. This month hyperinflation
begins. Two or three years from now, perhaps sooner, the plug will be pulled on
hyperinflation voluntarily or involuntarily. Supposedly this tax on money will force people
to spend. Again we say people do not have too. All they have to do is buy gold and silver
related assets. Mr. Mankiw isn’t going to tell you that.
Commercial bank loans are off 2.2% over the past six months. Banks are loaded
with cash that continues to pile up over at the Fed that now pays them for the privilege of
depositing their cash there. We are told banks have excess reserves of some $862
billion, up $91 billion in just this past month. Over the past eight years that average
reserve was $1.6 billion. Why are the banks not lending? We’ll tell you why, because of
all the bad or worthless assets they have on their balance sheets – that is why. Negative
interest rates, zero interest rates and massive money and credit expansion are
impoverishing wealth producers, keeping them from taking risks and driving them into
gold and silver. Is our President really taking on the transnational elitist conglomerates
and their tax havens? These are paying about 2% in taxation by parking their profits
abroad. American companies might decide as a result of legislation to domicile in other
countries. This would cost some taxation and the further loss of American jobs.
The truth of the matter is that such legislation could be used as a bargaining tool
in other legislation, such as universal health insurance. There is $700 billion in offshore

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corporate accounts that could be used to assist the US economy and bring in $200
billion in taxes.
Then again he may do what was done four years ago under the ruse of creating
jobs. The transnationals bought back $350 billion at 5-1/4% taxation, whereas normal
taxation was 3.3%. America is already one of the most heavily taxed nations worldwide
in the corporate area.
The GM management virtually destroyed the company along with the labor
unions and now they want a 1 for 100 reverse stock split. That is why we went short GM
long ago.
The pending home sales numbers indicated a 3.2% increase from February to
March. These are contracts signed. Cancellation rates are about 30% and have been for
two years. That increase will be adjusted downward next month. The inventory of
existing homes continues to mount with foreclosures making up 60% to 75% of sales by
speculators.
Bruce Bent, the inventor of money market funds and the proprietor of the
Reserve Primary Fund, was charged with lying about the stability of the fund last year.
He was investing in toxic garbage. This again should tell you how safe money market
funds are. Both Ken Lewis and Paulson are lying about the threats over Bank of America
and Merrill Lynch. Bernanke then lied before Congress. We see no outrage. No charges
of perjury, only more of the same criminal corruption. As you can see at Harvard and the
Ivy League schools they have courses in lying. We’ll eventually get them into court on
criminal charges, if the mob doesn’t get them first.
In recent years, never mind through more than a thousand years of history,
tactics such as those being used today by America’s Federal Reserve have been a
failure. Those at the Fed are well aware of that. It should be noted in the late 1980s and
again in 2001-03, that it was possible to use stimulus, and other money and credit
measures to resuscitate the economy. The troubles this time is different. They are far
beyond fixing. We have seen the same thing happen in Japan since 1991. They inflated
and inflated, incurred massive debt and even zero interest rates and they could not
resurrect their economy. The only thing that kept them afloat was unlimited access with
low tariffs to US markets.
It wasn’t easy in the 1970s. We were already 13 years in the brokerage
business, so we lived and were part of those years as well. We saw loose monetary
policy in the early 1960s when we began collecting gold and silver coins. We saw the
preparation in the early 1970s, which led to the debacle that culminated in the collapse
and purging of the economy in the early 1980s. There were a number of recoveries in
the years since the war but this time it is really very different.
The stimulus package of only a year ago was ineffective and it increased
government borrowing requirements as you saw recently. The Treasury had to have the
Fed monetize bond purchases.
The monetary and fiscal stimulus used in the last eight months should soon start
to show up in the form of inflation. Do not forget the move to stop inflation began five
years ago and it still hasn’t been effective.
We are told that there will be no increases in Social Security and Medicare for
the next two years. All government funds are being used to bail out Illuminists on Wall
Street, banks and insurance companies.
The number of mortgage applications rose 2% in the week ending May 1, the
Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday, with borrowers seeking both more
refinance and home-purchase loans.

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The MBA's seasonally adjusted composite index of mortgage applications rose to
979.7 from 960.6 a week earlier. The refinance index was up 1.2% while the purchase
index increased 5%.
The purchase-index number adds to signs of housing market stabilization, as low
mortgage rates and falling home prices have energized bargain hunters. The National
Association of Realtors said this week its index of pending home sales, a measure of
signed contracts for sales which have yet to close, rose 3% in March.
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 74.4% of total applications
from 75.3 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity
remained unchanged at 2.1% of total applications.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to
4.79% from 4.62%, with points increasing to 1.17 from 1.14 (including the origination
fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio loans. A point is 1% of the loan amount, charged
as prepaid interest.
The survey covers approximately 50 percent of all U.S. retail residential
mortgage applications and includes responses from mortgage bankers, commercial
lenders and thrifts.
Wells Fargo & Co. told employees on Monday it will no longer contribute to their
traditional pension plan, effectively cutting the total compensation of its workers less
than two weeks after announcing record first-quarter profit.
The San Francisco bank is combining its existing program with that of Wachovia
Corp., the Charlotte, N.C., bank it acquired in December, and freezing both companies'
cash balance plans, a type of defined benefit plan.
"We must manage expenses prudently to help Wells Fargo continue our long
track record of profitable growth so have decided to have one team member retirement
plan for the combined company," spokesman Chris Hammond said in a statement.
"These decisions were difficult and we are confident that we're taking the right steps to
ensure the long-term strength of our company."
He said the bank will maintain the dollar-for-dollar match for its 401(k) plan, up to
6 percent of pay.
At least three of the nation's 19 largest banks have passed government stress
tests of their financial strength.
American Express Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of New York Mellon
Corp. will not be asked to raise more capital when federal officials announce the test
results Thursday afternoon, according to people briefed on the results. The people
requested anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the results.
The stress tests were designed to see how the large banks and finance companies
would fare if the economy worsens. Analysts expect about half the companies will be
asked to raise capital.
Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. all will be asked to
raise money, sources have told The Associated Press.
Spokesmen for New York-based American Express and JPMorgan would not comment.
A Bank of New York Mellon representative did not immediately respond to
requests for comment Wednesday afternoon.
Bank of America stock rose Wednesday after reports that the Charlotte, N.C.-
based company would need to raise $34 billion in additional capital. The New York
Times and Wall Street Journal reported the figure. The Times quoted a bank executive,
while the Journal cited unnamed people familiar with the situation.
The stress tests are a centerpiece of the Obama administration's plan to stabilize
the financial industry. They measure how much the banks would be hurt if
unemployment rose to 10.3 percent and home prices dropped an additional 22 percent.

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The government wants the firms to have enough money to keep lending even if the
economy gets much worse. Officials have said none of the banks will be allowed to fold.
Signs of an economic recovery aren't showing up in the latest bankruptcy
statistics.
Phoenix-area bankruptcy filings jumped 91 percent in April compared with a year
earlier, pushing above 2,000 a month for the first time since bankruptcy laws were
changed in late 2005.
MetLife Inc., the biggest U.S. life insurer, said net unrealized losses on corporate
debt holdings increased 9.9 percent to $15.4 billion in the first quarter as borrowers
struggled to repay loans.
The loss, disclosed by the New York-based insurer in a regulatory filing today,
compares with $14 billion at the end of 2008 and $8.22 billion at the end of September.
Unrealized losses, which aren’t subtracted from earnings, are calculated as the
difference between a holding’s market value and what the company says the investment
is worth.
Bank of America Corp. is likely to convert preferred stock into common shares,
and traders betting on a potential swap should use options, Barclays Plc said.
Regulators have concluded Bank of America needs about $34 billion in capital to
withstand a weaker economy, according to a person with knowledge of U.S. stress tests
of lenders. The company may be able to accomplish that by exchanging preferred
shares for common stock.
Citigroup Inc. announced a plan in February to convert as much as $52.5 billion
in preferred stock to replenish capital, creating an arbitrage opportunity for investors who
bought those shares and shorted the bank’s common equity. The New York-based bank
reduced profits for Third Point LLC’s Daniel Loeb and other investors after delaying the
swap. Venu Krishna, a Barclays analyst, said trading options is safer than shorting Bank
of America’s common shares.
“Given the experience of Citi preferred holders who hedged themselves with the
common, we believe a more optimal choice is to sell combos (i.e. buy puts and sell calls
at the same strike) as a hedge,” Krishna wrote in a report yesterday.
Hedge funds and speculators rushed to buy preferreds and shorted Citigroup
stock to profit from the difference in prices between the two securities. Gains for
investors in the strategy were eroded by delays in completing the transaction and a
surge in the costs to borrow the common shares sold short.
Half a century prompted companies to lower expenses by squeezing more from
remaining staff.
Productivity, a measure of employee output per hour, rose at a 0.8 percent
annual rate, more than forecast, after a 0.6 percent decline in the fourth quarter, the
Labor Department said today. Labor costs increased 3.3 percent after climbing 5.7
percent at the end of 2008.
DuPont Co., the third-biggest U.S. chemical maker, plans to cut an additional
2,000 jobs as global demand remains weak.
Claims for state unemployment benefits fell sharply last week, the fourth decline
in five weeks, providing further evidence that the pace of layoffs has slowed after months
of steep job cuts.
Still, the total number of unemployed drawing jobless benefits hit its 14th-straight
record high and now stands at over 6.3 million, an indication that even if layoffs have
tapered off, there's little evidence that new jobs are being created.
Initial claims for state jobless benefits tumbled 34,000 to 601,000 in the week
ended May 2, the Labor Department said in a weekly report Thursday. That's the lowest
level since late January.

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Wall Street economists had expected a 4,000 rise, according to a Dow Jones
Newswires survey. The prior week's level was revised higher.
The four-week average - which aims to smooth volatility - slid for a fourth-straight week,
by 14,750 to 623,500, the lowest since mid-February.
The US has lost over 5 million jobs since the recession started in late 2007, with
over 2 million of those losses occurring in the first three months of 2009 alone, pushing
the unemployment rate to a 25-year high of 8.5%.
The current global crisis is “vastly worse” than the 1930s because financial
systems and economies worldwide have become more interdependent, “Black Swan”
author Nassim Nicholas Taleb said. “This is the most difficult period of humanity that
we’re going through today because governments have no control,” Taleb, 49, told a
conference in Singapore today. “Navigating the world is much harder than in the 1930s.”
Europe’s central banks are $40bn poorer than they might have been after they
followed a British move taken 10 years ago on Thursday to shrink the Bank of England’s
gold reserves, analysis by the Financial Times has shown.London’s announcement on
May 7 1999 that it would sell a large share of the Bank’s gold reserves in favour of
assets offering a return, such as government bonds, was the high water mark of so-
called “anti-gold” sentiment among European central banks.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/433a92b4-3a67-11de-8a2d-
00144feabdc0.html?referrer_id=yahoofinance&ft_ref=yahoo1&segid=03058&nclick_che
ck=1 - #Many of these banks, such as those in France, Spain, the Netherlands and
Portugal, decided later in 1999 to follow Britain and sell off their reserves. At that time,
gold was worth around $280 an ounce, less than a third of its current level of more than
$900.
European banks sold about 3,800 tonnes of gold, reaping about $56bn,
according to calculations from official sales data and bullion prices.
Taking into account the likely returns from the investments in bonds, the banks have
gained another $12bn. But because today’s gold prices are far higher, they are about
$40bn poorer than if they had kept their reserves.
The biggest loser is the Swiss National Bank which sold 1,550 tonnes over the
decade and at today’s gold prices is $19bn poorer, followed by the Bank of England,
which is $5bn poorer.
The UK Treasury on Wednesday defended its decision to sell gold as a way to
diversify reserves and cut risk. “As a result of the programme, a one-off reduction in risk
of approximately 30 per cent was achieved,” it said. The Swiss National Bank declined to
comment other than to say that it did not plan to sell more gold.
However, central bankers are confident that over the long run their move out of gold and
into bonds will pay off and reduce the volatility of their portfolios, people familiar with
their thinking said. Analysts also argue that because some banks had more than 90 per
cent of their assets in gold, some disposals were warranted.
The proportion of European reserves held as gold remains extremely large even
after years of sales, at an average of about 60 per cent, compared with the world
average of 10.5 per cent.
After 10 years of steady sales, Europe’s gold sales are set to slow to their lowest
levels since 1999, while central banks outside Europe have already become net buyers
of gold. The US, the world’s biggest holder of gold, decided not to follow Europe’s move.
Germany and Italy are the only two big European central banks which did not follow the
UK, mostly because of domestic disputes about what to do with the proceeds.
Consumers enticed by warmer weather and glimmers of hope for the economy
bought a few more items in April, helping discounter Wal-Mart Stores and many mall
clothing chains post better results for the month than expected.

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Business in many areas remains weak, however, and analysts expect a slow
recovery as unemployment remains high and other economic woes persist.
Among merchants that reported sales Thursday, mall-based clothing stores
including Gap, American Eagle and Wet Seal posted smaller declines than analysts had
forecast. The Children's Place, T.J. Maxx owner TJX Cos. Inc. and The Buckle saw
bigger gains than expected.
But warehouse store operator Costco Wholesale Corp. reported a deeper-than-
expected same-store sales drop, hurt by the closing of its stores on Easter.
China has given its clearest warning to date that emergency monetary stimulus
by Western governments risks setting off worldwide inflation and undermining global
bond markets.
"A policy mistake made by some major central bank may bring inflation risks to
the whole world," said the People's Central Bank in its quarterly report.
"As more and more economies are adopting unconventional monetary policies,
such as quantitative easing (QE), major currencies' devaluation risks may rise," it said.
The bank fears a "big consolidation" in the bond
markets, clearly anxious that interest yields will surge as western states try to exit their
QE experiment.
Simon Derrick, currency chief at the Bank of New York Mellon, said the report is
the latest sign that China is losing patience with the US and aims to diversify part its
$1.95 trillion (£1.3 trillion) foreign reserves away from US Treasuries and other dollar
securities.
"There is a significant shift taking place in China. They are concerned about the
stability of the global financial system so they are not going to sell US bonds they
already have. But they are still accumulating $40bn of fresh reserves each month, and
they are going to be much more careful where they invest it," he
said.
Hans Redeker, head of currencies at BNP Paribas, said China is switching into
hard assets. "They want to buy production rights to raw materials and gain access to
resources such as oil, water, and metals. They know they can't keep buying bonds," he
said Premier Wen Jiabao left no doubt at the Communist Party summit in March that
China is irked by Washington's response to the credit crunch, suspecting that the US is
engaging in a stealth default on its debt by driving down the dollar. "We have lent a
massive amount of capital to the United States, and of course we are concerned about
the security of our assets. To speak truthfully, I do indeed have some worries," he said.
Days later, the central bank chief wrote a paper suggesting a world currency
based on Special Drawing Rights issued by the International Monetary Fund.
Some economists say China is suffering from "cognitive dissonance" by anguishing so
much over its reserves, accumulated as a result of its own policy of holding down the
yuan to promote exports.
Quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve and fellow central banks may
have saved China as well, since the country's growth strategy is built on selling goods to
the West.
China's fears of imported inflation may reflect its concerns about over-heating.
The M2 money supply rose 25pc in March on a year earlier, and there has been
explosive credit growth since the government relaxed loan restraints. There are
concerns that the stimulus is leaking into a new asset bubble rather than promoting job
growth. The Shanghai bourse is up over 50pc since November.
Falling home prices have forced the government to ask Congress for a taxpayer
subsidy to prop up a program that lets senior citizens take out reverse mortgages.

9
The White House says in budget details that the Federal Housing Administration
needs a $798 million subsidy next year, the first in its 75-year history. The money is
needed for a program that lets seniors tap the equity in their homes.
The FHA's main program for borrowers with weak credit will not need a taxpayer
rescue, despite rising defaults.
There will be no rapid economic and financial recovery anytime soon. Job
formation is a long way from beginning as layoffs continue to abound. The pay rates for
those who can find jobs are deplorable. At the bottom end of the job food chain the
uneducated have to contend with competition from illegal aliens and at the middle and
upper ends workers have to contend with free trade, globalization, offshoring and
outsourcing. At the same time the fiscal deficit for 9/30/09 could be as high as $2.5
trillion, which is unfathomable. Worse yet, the President tells us this situation will persist
for years to come.
What we will have to do eventually is purge the system whether the elitists like it
or not. We need higher interest rates to encourage saving to provide funding for the
economy. Companies that are bankrupt should be allowed to fail – with no exception.
Funds have to be available to rebuild our capital foundation. All government agencies at
every level have to cut spending at least by 35% to balance budgets without increasing
taxes. Inflation should be under 2% and that is accomplished by not allowing the Fed to
recklessly increase money and credit. Tariff barriers on goods and services should be
erected to raise revenue for the federal government and to protect what is left of
American jobs. Tariffs will force US corporations to return home to manufacture or to
offer services. Over the last 200 years in similar situations these methods have been
employed and they have worked.
What the Fed and the Treasury are doing won’t work and it could be disastrous.
Keynesianism always has been and will continue to be a disaster.
The lies at the Fed get bigger and bigger. Mr. Bernanke as well as Mr. Geithner
say that there will be a reassuring picture of a banking system able to withstand
whatever stresses the recession may inflict on it once handful of institutions add to their
capital base.
Challenger job cut announcements total 132,600 in April, up 47.3% yoy.
The Senate has approved widening of the FDIC’s credit line at Treasury to $100
billion from $30 billion. It also approved an increase in the FDIC’s credit limit to $500
billion. The insurance fund’s reserves have been depleted by bank failures over the
course of the subprime collapse.
The number of borrowers who are underwater on their mortgages were 30% at
the end of the first quarter, up from 17.6% in the fourth quarter and 14.3% yoy. This
surge in underwater borrowers will cause fewer homeowners to qualify. In addition
interest rates are rising. Home sales are still falling off a cliff.
Even though consumer confidence perked up somewhat this past month, as did
exports worldwide, world trade is off some 35%. Consumption is showing a fall into
negative territory and we do not see a change anytime soon. Deeply in debt consumers
simply cannot launch a recovery in the face of rising unemployment. The days of being a
mall rat are over. People will have to find other ways to entertain themselves. No more
shop until you drop. Life on borrowed money is coming to an end. The future will be like
the 1940s and 1950s, days when you counted every penny.
The quest to get bigger and bigger by companies is over. They can no longer
borrow the funds to do so. What lenders want is to lend on collateral that is falling in
value? Banks are definitely exacerbating the financial and economic collapse. Our
President tells business and individuals to pile on more debt. The fact is they cannot.
Our government via lenders, FHA, Fannie and Freddie is again writing subprime loans,

10
the loans that started the economy downhill. Debt is now close to 175% of GDP. The
spending psychology, like the housing psychology, has been broken and it will take
years to fix.
Behind all these problems is the privately owned Federal Reserve, which refuses
to relinquish information on bank bailouts claiming it is a state secret. They won’t tell us
who has borrowed and how much because of stigma as well. That readers is some $2
trillion we are talking about. This is the same Fed that made disastrous decisions that
caused today’s problems. What the Fed is doing is bailing out fellow elitists. They are
subsidizing failure and we get to pay for it. There is no such thing as too big to fail.
The US government should let its weakest banks fail, argues economist Nouriel
Roubini, whose pessimistic forecasts have earned him the moniker Dr. Doom.
Roubini and fellow New York University economist Matthew Richardson, writing
in the Financial Times, ask the question: “Why keep insolvent banks afloat?
Their answer: “We believe there is no convincing answer; we should instead find
ways to manage the systemic risk of bank failures.”
The bank stress tests “could have facilitated this process,” the duo explain.
The problem is, “the tests, which measure how viable banks are under adverse
economic conditions, have no ‘failed’ category, even if as many as 10 are reported to
need additional capital,” they write.
Given that the economic environment already reflects the tests’ worst-case
scenario, the stress test results will not be credibly interpreted as a sign of bank health,
they maintain.
So investors “will conclude that banks requiring extra capital have, in fact, failed,”
the economists write.
“As a result, these institutions will not be able to raise outside capital and will
immediately require government help.”
Roubini and Richardson have plenty of allies.
Investor Jim Rogers told CNBC that ailing banks are “ruining the U.S. economy,
the U.S. government, the U.S. central bank and the U.S. dollar."
The world outside Idaho got a little bit smaller Wednesday, as four F-15SG
fighter jets flown from St. Louis by the Royal Singapore Air Force landed between
rainstorms at Mountain Home Air Force Base.
Greeted by a cheering crowd of more than 100 military personnel from both
Singapore and the U.S., the four jets are the first of as many as 10 that will call the
airbase home for at least the next 20 years.
More than 300 active-duty and support personnel will make up the 428th Fighter
Squadron and train alongside American pilots as part of a partnership between the two
countries - though they will not fly on missions.
U.S. Air Force representatives haven't allowed interviews yet with the
Singaporean pilots and crews. But Lt. Col. Keith Gibson, the training squadron's U.S.
commander, said U.S. officials have high hopes for the program.
"The base is very excited to work with the RSAF because this partnership
provides important combat readiness training for our Singapore partners, and fulfills the
need to train as a team in a multi-national force structure," Gibson said.
As many as 2,000 active-duty personnel from Singapore may live and work on
the base over the life of the program. The squadron will be officially activated at a May
18 ceremony at the base.
The Federal Reserve’s program to kick- start consumer loans may not be helping
small businesses get credit, a group overseeing the U.S. financial bailout said. The
Congressional Oversight Panel, in a report released today, also said the Term Asset-
Backed Securities Loan Facility may not be “well-designed to meet its purpose” in part

11
because of less-than-expected demand. The Bush administration created the TALF last
year using $20 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to restart the market for
securities backed by loans used by consumers and small firms for purchases such as
cars, equipment, real estate and education. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has
expanded the effort and made it a central part of the Obama administration’s market
rescue plans. The program “can provide more funds to the lenders for lending, but
asset-backed securities have never been the source of significant funding for small
businesses,” the panel wrote. Earlier this week, the Fed said investor requests for loans
under the program rose to $10.6 billion from last month, signaling greater investor
interest in the TALF.
Federal regulators plan to disclose today the results of stress tests designed to
show which U.S. banks will require additional capital if the recession worsens.
The review of 19 companies has so far found that Bank of America Corp., Wells
Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. are among those that need capital, while JPMorgan
Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are among those that don’t, according to
people familiar with the decisions.
Bank of America Corp. $34 Billion Wells Fargo & Co. $15 Billion GMAC LLC
$11.5 Billion Citigroup Inc. $5 Billion Morgan Stanley $1 Billion - $2 Billion.
American Express Co. No Additional Funds Bank of New York Mellon Corp. No
Additional Funds BB&T Corp. No Additional Funds Capital One Financial Corp. No
Additional Funds Goldman Sachs Group Inc. No Additional Funds JPMorgan Chase &
Co. No Additional Funds MetLife Inc. No Additional Funds State Street Corp. No
Additional Funds - Fifth Third Bancorp Not Yet Available KeyCorp Not Yet Available
PNC Financial Services Group Inc. Not Yet Available Regions Financial Corp. Not Yet
Available SunTrust Banks Inc. Not Yet Available U.S. Bancorp Not Yet Available.
Got assets you can’t value? Call Larry Fink.
That’s what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary
Timothy Geithner have done, as have many heads of banks and insurance companies,
including Robert Willumstad, former chief executive officer of American International
Group Inc., and current AIG CEO Edward Liddy.
Fink, 56, is CEO of BlackRock Inc., the U.S.’s biggest publicly traded asset
management firm, with $1.3 trillion under management for clients that include Ford
Motor Co. and Microsoft Corp. BlackRock, like many other money managers, has taken
some hits in the credit crisis. It also loaded up on Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. stock,
for example, buying shares last June at $28 only three months before Lehman declared
bankruptcy. One BlackRock fund that rushed in to buy distressed debt in September
2007 saw its value plunge 25 percent during the following 12 months.
More recently, mirroring results at rival firms, BlackRock’s first quarter profits fell
65 percent to $84 million after stock and bond market declines hurt its fees.
Fink has a way of making good money in bad times. A decade ago, he created a
subsidiary called BlackRock Solutions, looking to capitalize on ever-more-sophisticated
risk-management analytics that the firm was running for clients, including mortgage giant
Freddie Mac, that needed help in assessing stressed portfolios or in deciding whether an
investment made sense.
Fannie Mae, operating under a federal conservatorship since September, asked
the U.S. Treasury for a $19 billion capital investment as a seventh straight quarterly loss
drove the mortgage-finance company’s net worth below zero.
A wider first-quarter net loss of $23.2 billion, or $4.09 a share, pushed the
company to request its second draw from a $200 billion funding commitment from the
government, Washington- based Fannie Mae said in a filing today with the Securities
and Exchange Commission. The company took $15.2 billion in April.

12
Morgan Stanley raised $7.5 billion selling stock and debt, 50 percent more than it
announced yesterday, to cover a $1.8 billion capital shortfall and repay government
bailout funds.
The bank raised $3.5 billion by selling 146 million shares at $24 apiece, 12
percent below yesterday’s closing price. The New York-based company also sold $4
billion in debt in its first transaction not guaranteed by the U.S. Federal Deposit
Insurance Corp. since that backing became available last year.
Options traders are increasing wagers that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 34
percent rally in the past two months is coming to an end.
Futures on the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index are priced
above the gauge’s level of 33.44, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The so-
called VIX, which measures the cost of using the options as protection against market
declines, has dropped 16 percent this year in CBOE trading.
Dealers are charging more for insurance after better-than- estimated corporate
profits at companies ranging from American Express Co. to Ford Motor Co. and
economic reports on home sales and durable goods sent the S&P 500 to its steepest
eight-week rally since 1938. Now, the so-called term structure shows higher prices for
VIX futures for the next six months.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest U.S. bank by market value, says it may be
charged with violating federal securities laws for selling fixed-income financing that
helped push Alabama’s most populous county to the brink of bankruptcy.
The potential sanctions by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission,
disclosed yesterday in two sentences of a 162-page quarterly regulatory filing, relate to a
series of bond and interest-rate swap sales in 2002 and 2003 for sewers in Jefferson
County, which covers about 1,125 square miles including Birmingham, the state capital
with more than 240,000 residents.
Until recently, the little-known Securities Investor Protection Corp. was flying
high, confident its $1.7 billion fund was more than enough to insure investors against
brokerage failures and fraud for years to come.
For a decade, the agency did not raise how much it charged brokerage
companies for insurance: only $150 a year to insure every account for up to $500,000
whether it was Merrill Lynch, a small-time broker, or admitted Ponzi scheme operator
Bernard Madoff.
Then came the financial collapse of 2008, which included Madoff's $65 billion
swindle. The cost of the claims in the Madoff case is expected to be in the hundreds of
millions of dollars - and could wipe out the fund's assets. SIPC officials, who for years
have said the fund could withstand the most severe economic shocks, now acknowledge
that it is in danger of dropping far below adequate levels.
As a result, they have dramatically raised insurance rates on brokerage firms,
increasing the annual fee from $150 to 0.25 percent of each brokerage's net operating
revenues, which could cost millions of dollars a year at some firms. The agency, created
by Congress but privately run, also has a $1 billion line of credit with the Treasury
Department that it might have to tap for the first time in its history.
Consumer borrowing plunged in March at the fastest pace in 18 years as
Americans put away credit cards and hoarded cash.
The Federal Reserve said yesterday that consumer borrowing dropped 5.2
percent, the biggest decline since an 8.1 percent fall in December 1990.
In dollar terms, consumer borrowing plunged by $11.1 billion - the largest amount on
record since 1943, and more than three times the $3.5 billion drop economists had
expected.

13
The borrowing category that includes credit cards dropped 6.8 percent in March
after a 12.1 percent plunge in February. The category that includes auto loans fell 4.2
percent after rising by 1.2 percent in February.
The Commerce Department last week said that the personal savings rate edged
up to 4.2 percent in March, marking the first time in a decade the savings rate has been
above 4 percent for three straight months.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of total US economic
activity, fell 0.2 percent in March, ending an otherwise strong quarter. Consumer
spending grew at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter, according to
government data.
US wholesale inventories fell for a seventh straight month in March as sales
returned to negative territory after posting a small gain in February, a government report
released Friday showed.
Wholesale inventories fell 1.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted $411.7 billion,
after falling a revised 1.7% during February, the Commerce Department's report said.
The Department in a report released last month had estimated February inventories fell
1.5%. The February drop in inventories is the largest on record.
The March drop in inventories is more than the 1.2% decline analysts had expected and
indicates wholesalers are drawing down inventories as shipments to retailers remain
weak.
Sales of U.S. wholesalers dropped 2.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted
$310.9 billion after a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in February, the data showed.
Originally, February sales were estimated to have gained 0.6%.
The inventory-to-sales ratio, a measure of the number of months it would take a
business to deplete its current inventory, increased slightly to 1.32 from 1.31 in
February. The March 2009 figure is above the March 2008 ratio of 1.12.
On a year-over-year basis, sales were down 18.1% in March, while inventories were
down 3.5%.
Wholesalers' inventories of durable goods - a category that includes cars,
appliances and furniture - fell 2.4% in March, after falling a revised 2.6% in February.
Sales of durable good fell 3.3% in March, on the heels of a revised 1.7% increase in
February.
Auto stocks fell 5.0%, while auto sales declined 0.6%. That compares with a
7.9% drop in auto stocks in February amid a downwardly revised 3.5% increase in sales.
Lumber sales in March fell 3.1%, while furniture sales fell 2.5%.
Non-durable goods inventories fell 0.3% in March, following a 0.2% drop the month
before. March non-durable goods sales fell 1.6%, after dropping a revised 0.9% in
February.
Petroleum stocks rose 7.9% amid a 5.1% decrease in sales. Farm product
inventories rose 4.7%, while sales fell 3.9%
The economy has continued destroying employment in April although at a
somewhat slower pace than in previous months; Non farm Payrolls declined by 539,000
last month, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor
April’s decline, despite being a large one, is the lowest of the last four months, as
payrolls fell bu 699 K in March and by 651K in February. The Unemployment rate,
however, has increased to 8.9% in April, from 8.5% in March
Euro and Pound have rocketed on Payrolls data. EUR/USD has jumped from
around 1.3440 to levels right above 1.3500 inutes after NFP datas was released.
Employers are letting up a bit on the mass layoffs they resorted to earlier this
year to cope with the recession, but the unemployment rate is climbing because many
businesses remain wary of hiring given all the economic and financial uncertainties.

14
The Labor Department on Friday is slated to release a report expected to show
that a net total of 620,000 jobs were lost in April. If analysts are correct, the figure —
while still big — would be an improvement from March's 663,000 job losses and mark
the fewest reductions since November.
The deepest job cuts of the recession, which started in December 2007 and is now the
longest since World War II, came in January: 741,000 jobs vanished then, the most
since the fall of 1949.
"I think the worst has passed in terms of losses," said John Silvia, economist at
Wachovia. "But the jobs situation will remain tough."
With few places for the out-of-work to land, the unemployment rate is expected to
jump to 8.9 percent, from 8.5 percent in March. If that happens, it would mark the
highest jobless rate since the fall of 1983, when the country was recovering from a severe
recession that drove unemployment past 10 percent.
The American economy lost another 539,000 jobs in April and the unemployment
rate leapt to 8.9 percent, the government reported Friday, yet the deterioration was
slightly milder than expected, buoying hopes that better days are approaching.
Fannie Mae, operating under a federal conservatorship since September, asked
the U.S. Treasury for a $19 billion capital investment as a seventh straight quarterly loss
drove the mortgage-finance company’s net worth below zero.
A wider first-quarter net loss of $23.2 billion, or $4.09 a share, pushed the company to
request its second draw from a $200 billion funding commitment from the government,
Washington- based Fannie Mae said in a filing today with the Securities and Exchange
Commission. The company took $15.2 billion March 31.
In the midst of the worst economic contraction in decades, some small business
owners are experiencing an additional—and brutal—cash squeeze, this time at the
hands of their credit-card processors. The recession and rising business bankruptcies
have prompted giant credit-card companies such as Denver (Colo)-based First Data and
Atlanta-based Elavon to demand that some business owners maintain a cash reserve
with the processors in order to protect against the possibility that customers may require
refunds after the merchants have gone belly-up. Most processing agreements give the
transaction giants the right to accumulate those reserves simply by holding back money
the merchant is supposed to be paid after a credit-card transaction has cleared, often
with little or no warning.
Dan Price, chief executive officer and co-founder of Gravity Payments, a card
processor in Seattle, says he has seen "dramatically more" cases of reserves being
created for small accounts in the past year. He says he has not asked any of his clients
for reserves but has requested regular financial statements from customers that might
pose a risk. Price says the size of reserves varies greatly, but it is common to require an
amount equal to one or two months' worth of transactions.
The ramifications on even a well-established company can be dramatic. "In two
weeks we would have been in bankruptcy," says Angie's List CEO Bill Oesterle, whose
processor, Elavon, tried to withhold a reserve of $2.5 million from his $35 million
company. Oesterle was instead able to change processors quickly, and with help from
his lawyers, got his money back in about three weeks.
When a processor agrees to clear a company's credit-card transactions, the
processor then becomes responsible for providing customer refunds. When an unhappy
consumer asks their credit-card company for a refund, the credit-card issuer gets that
money from the processor. The processor, in turn, pulls the money from the merchant's
account. If the merchant has gone under, the processor has to eat the loss. With
business bankruptcies on the rise, processors fear dishonest merchants might close up
shop and skip town, leaving the processor on the hook for any refunds. "Before

15
bankruptcy, some [unscrupulous] merchants will create lots of transactions," says
Richard Speer, CEO of financial consultancy Speer & Associates, based in Alpharetta,
Ga. Common triggers for the establishment of a reserve include a sudden surge in
activity and individual transactions that have large dollar amounts.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Friday the Obama
administration will provide substantial support to troubled lender GMAC, a vital provider
of financing for buyers of U.S.-made cars.
"It's likely, again, that GMAC will need to take additional capital from the
government and we'll be prepared to provide that," Geithner said in an interview with
Reuters Television.
The Treasury and U.S. banking regulators said on Thursday that GMAC needs to
raise $11.5 billion to fill a capital hole it could face if the economy were to deteriorate
further.

*****
How panic gripped the world’s biggest banks
By Gillian Tett
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e3b972fc-3aa6-11de-8a2d-00144feabdc0.html
*****

Green Shoots---Flowers or Weeds


http://www.comstockfunds.com/(X(1)S(qcno4145oa24qn55rnbuwl45))/default.aspx?act=
Newsletter.aspx&category=SpecialReport&newsletterid=1455&menugroup=Home&Aspx
AutoDetectCookieSupport=1
*****
Postponing Judgement Day
by Puru Saxena
http://www.safehaven.com/article-13293.htm

*****
Reviewing Ellen Brown's "Web of Debt:" Part II
by Stephen Lendman
http://sjlendman.blogspot.com/

*****
Leaked Agenda: Bilderberg Group Plans Economic Depression
http://www.infowars.com/leaked-agenda-bilderberg-group-plans-economic-depression/
*****
Have Americans Lost All Control Over the Federal Government?
by Mark R. Crovelli
http://www.lewrockwell.com/crovelli/crovelli29.html

*****
WHERE IS OUR MONEY
http://solari.com/archive/missing_money
*****
Cashing In on "Government Sachs"
http://www.truthout.org/050609C?n
*****
The Phoney Epidemic

16
http://www.truthout.org/050609F?n
*****
Bigger Than Watergate?
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1241630296.php
*****
Census GPS-tagging your home's front door
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&amp;pageId=97208
*****
Bank Regulator William K. Black Interviewed by The Young Turks
http://www.truthout.org/video/050609C?n
*****
401(k)s Hit by Withdrawal Freezes
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124148012581385199.html
We are going to warn you once and once only, the Dow is at 8500 up over 30% from
6600. The Dow before the year is out will test 6600 again and if you think getting out of
retirement plans or cash value insurance policies or annuities is difficult now, it will be
more difficult then. At 4000 on the Dow or lower nobody may get out. A word to the wise
should be sufficient.
*****
Senate moves toward easing mortgage terms
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2009/05/06/20090506biz-
CongressForeclosures0506.html?source=nletter-business
*****
Insider Selling Jumps to Highest Level Since 2007 - The Rats are Leaving the
Ships:::
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=au8cyqeJFifg&refer=h
ome
*****
Democratizing the US Monetary System: Urgency of the American Monetary Act
A monetary system which serves the American people
by Richard C. Cook
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13520
*****
The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/134820-the-worst-case-scenario-someone-has-to-say-it
*****
Banks That Received Federal Cash Enabled Subprime Lenders, Report Finds
http://www.truthout.org/050709M?n
*****
The End of Free Speech?
Criminalizing Criticism of Israel
By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/Find-Freedom.htm?At=0056433&From=News
*****
Global Crisis ‘Vastly Worse’ Than 1930s, Taleb Says
http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/Find-Freedom.htm?At=0056416&From=News
*****
Betting on a Global Crapshoot
http://www.truthout.org/050709R?n
*****
Government Could Destroy Records in Hundreds of Guantanamo Cases

17
http://www.truthout.org/050709T?n
*****
House bypasses governor’s veto to claim Oklahoma’s sovereignty
http://www.newsok.com/house-bypasses-governors-veto-to-claim-oklahomas-
sovereignty/article/3366762
*****
Ron Paul's Influence Grows
http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/election/1089
*****
CFR Pushes Law of the Sea Treaty (LOST)
http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/foreign-policy/1084
*****
Congressman: 'Hate crimes' would 'break' Constitution
Criminalizing thought called 'unprecedented in federal law'

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=97460
*****
Rockefeller wants to shut down the Internet
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/613.html
*****

20090108 Steve Quayle Favoriteand Alex Jones


http://www.viddler.com/explore/endgamenow/videos/198/

*****
Under Restructuring, GM To Build More Cars Overseas
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2009/05/07/AR2009050704336.html
*****

Fed Dread
The New York Fed is the most powerful financial institution you've never heard of. Look
who's running it.
http://www.slate.com/id/2217811/
*****
Feingold Bill Gives ALL
US Water To The Feds!
http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/Find-Freedom.htm?At=0056631&From=News
*****

Some Republicans still don't understand why mainstream America is soup set with their
Party.

Now that Sen. Arlen Specter has defected to the Democrat Party, many prominent
Republicans are openly recruiting liberal Republicans to run against Specter.

And at the top of their list is Tom Ridge.

Ridge is the turncoat Republican whose vote was crucial in passing the semi-auto ban in
1994.

18
After having opposed a similar ban in 1991, then-Rep. Tom Ridge flip-flopped and
teamed up with Charles Schumer (D-NY) to pass the semi-auto gun and magazine ban.
The gun ban passed narrowly, 216 to 214,thanks to Tom Ridge.

Later, as Governor of Pennsylvania, Ridge signed one of the most restrictive gun control
laws in the State's history -- the infamous Act 17, which registered and taxed long gun
buyers and placed other restrictions on Keystone State gun owners.

As the head of the Department of Homeland Security, Tom Ridge opposed arming pilots.
He asked, sarcastically, if pilots carry guns, then should we also arm railroad engineers
and bus drivers? As DHS Director, Ridge should have led the charge to arm pilots and
people in other positions that fell under the agency's purview.

Instead, he just repeated the same tired old anti-gun line that we hear every time a state
passes a concealed carry handgun law.

Guess who else opposed the armed pilots program? Pennsylvania's "Benedict" Arlen
Specter, who was one of only two Republican Senators to vote against the bill.

The last thing we need is another elitist in Congress who does not trust law-abiding
citizens with firearms. And yet, wishy-washy Republican
Senators like Utah's Orrin Hatch and South Carolina's Lindsey Graham are touting
Ridge over Specter. In other words, let's replace one turncoat with another.

There is a better option. His name is Pat Toomey, a Gun Owners of America "A" rated
pro-gunner who served in the U.S. House of Representatives for three terms, before
honoring a self-imposed term limit and retiring in 2004.

Those who are pushing anti-gunner Tom Ridge claim that Pat Toomey is unelectable
because he's "too conservative" for Pennsylvania.

But that's what self-appointed experts said before Toomey got elected term after term in
a largely Democrat district in the eastern part of Pennsylvania. And that's what they said
before he accrued a gigantic lead in the polls over a sitting Senator this year, forcing
Specter to jump parties.

It was Pat Toomey who forced Specter to jump to the Democrat Party. Toomey -- who
was backed by Gun Owners of America Political Victory Fund -- was leading Specter in
polls by an overwhelming margin.

That's also what they said about Ronald Reagan -- who was supposedly too
conservative to win a national election. (By the way, Reagan also won Pennsylvania.)

Bottom line: We need to put these squishy politicians on alert. Their internal party
politics is their business. But when party leaders start pushing noted gun banners --
using the money contributed by millions of gun owners around the country -- we're not
going to remain silent.

Texas Senator John Cornyn is the head of the National Republican Senatorial
Committee. Michael Steele heads the Republican National Committee. The decision to

19
support an anti-gunner over a defender of the Second Amendment rests largely in their
hands.

ACTION: Please urge Senator John Cornyn and Chairman Michael Steele not to
interfere in Pennsylvania's primary. There is already a pro-gun, electable conservative
running in the primary who deserves their support.

You can contact NRSC's Sen. Cornyn at info@nrsc.org or by phone at (202) 675-6000.

You can contact RNC Chairman Michael Steele at chairman@gop.com or by phone at


(202) 863-8700.

COMMODITIES
The DOE reports crude oil inventories rose 167,000 barrels, gas fell 167,000
barrels and distillates rose 2.43 m/b.

GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM


The Royal Mint, established in the 13th century, used 75 percent more gold in
the first quarter amid a surge in demand for bullion to diversify investments.
The U.K. mint made 28,496 ounces of gold coins in the quarter, compared with
16,317 ounces a year earlier, according to data obtained by Bloomberg News under a
Freedom of Information Act request. Production last year rose 30 percent to 53,089
ounces, the data show.
Demand for gold and exchange-traded funds linked to the metal accelerated as
equities collapsed and governments spent trillions of dollars to combat recessions. The
Austrian mint, Muenze Oesterreich AG, sold a record 1.5 million ounces of gold last
year, while the U.S. Mint’s sales of 1-ounce American Eagle gold coins more than
quadrupled in January to 92,000.
“People are worried about their savings and banks, and a lot of people realize it’s
a safe-haven asset,” said Mark O’Byrne, managing director of brokerage Gold and Silver
Investments Ltd. in Dublin. “Very few people are selling.”
Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETF backed by bullion, has
expanded to 1,104.45 metric tons, overtaking Switzerland as the world’s sixth-largest
gold holding. Gold has advanced for eight consecutive years, the longest winning streak
since at least 1948, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The Royal Mint is now based in Llantrisant, Wales. Its 2009 Gold Proof
Sovereign coin, made from 22-carat gold and weighing 7.99 grams (0.26 ounce) sells for
299 pounds ($450), according to the government agency’s Web site. Gold for immediate
delivery averaged $904.18 an ounce this year, compared with $872.25 an ounce last
year.
The Mint’s use of silver declined 10 percent to 74,793 ounces in the first quarter,
the data show. Production last year fell 14 percent to 240,759 ounces. The metal fell 23
percent last year in London.
Wednesday saw June gold rise $8.80 to $911.00 as silver rose $0.29 to $13.71.
Outside contracts were similar. Open interest in gold rose 2,520 contracts to 334,360, as
silver OI rose 604 to 81,050. The ETF-GLD tells us their inventory has been unchanged
for eight business days. If you believe that we have a tooth fairy we’d like to introduce
you too. The ECB says, gold and gold receivables last week fell 12 million euros, or 0.54
tons. One bank sold and another bought. The Tocom is closed for the week. The HUI
rose 15.68 to 335.62. AEM rose 4.42%, or up $2.04 to $48.24; GG rose 5.79%, or up

20
$1.66 to $30.33; SSRI rose 6.62%, or up $1.26 to $20.29 and MFN rose 2.74%, or up
$0.22 to $8.24.
Richard Russell has discovered, as we did a few months ago, that gold is in a
giant long-term reverse head and shoulders bottom pattern. The right shoulder is being
completed and gold could catapult upward at any time, solidly breaking through $1,025.
This will have huge implications for the world monetary situation. It is tragic for most
Americans, including most of our Congress.
The market climbed again with the Dow up 101 to 8512; S&P rose 141 and
Nasdaq 30 Dow points. We detect some weakness. The 2-year was 0.96%; the 10’s
3.16%; the 1-month Libor 0.40% and the 3-month 0.99%.
The yen rose .0070 to $.9832; the euro rose .0039 to $1.1349; the pound rose
.0061 to $1.5129; the Swiss franc was up .0027 to $1.3307; the Canadian dollar rose
.0063 to $.8568 and the dollar index, USDX, fell .18 to 83.97.
Oil rose $2.15 to $56.34; gas rose $0.02 to $1.63 and natural gas rose $0.16 to
$3.98. Copper rose $0.29 to $2.19; platinum rose $3.10 to $1,141 and palladium rose
$5.85 to $228.05. The CRB index rose 5.64 to 237.48.
Early Thursday markets were slightly stronger. The Dow rose 63 to 8534; S&P
was up 52; Nasdaq gained 14 and the FTSE gained 166 Dow points. The Nikkei rose
408; the CAC gained 61 and the DAX rose 80. The yen fell .0064; the euro rose .0011
and the pound rose .0023. The 2-year was 0.99% and the 10’s were 3.24%, a gaping
breakdown. 1-month Libor was 0.40% and the 3-month was 0.97%. Oil rose $1.53 to
$57.87 as the result of profit taking in the market and rotation into commodities, the next
day. It certainly won’t be the long side of the long bond market or long interest rates. Gas
rose $0.04 to $1.67 and natural gas rose $0.02 to $3.91. Gold rose $4.60 to $915.60;
silver gained $0.25 to $13.96 and copper was up $0.02 to $2.20. Can it break out?
On Thursday June gold fell $0.50 to $911.30, as July silver rose $0.13 to
$13.84. The cartel sat on gold all day long. Mr. Bernanke spoke again and the market
fell again. Mr. Geithner spoke after the close when it was safer. Gold open interest rose
7,101 contracts to 341,461, as silver OI gained 427 contracts to 89,447. The HUI fell
3.50 to 332.12, as those in the index fell fractions.
For the 4th day in a row the Nasdaq 100, which has led the current rally seemed
to be faltering. The Dow fell 102 to 8409; the S&P fell 83 and the Nasdaq fell 254. The
interest rates are headed relentlessly higher. The 2-year yielded 0.99% and the 10’s
3.32%.
The yen fell .0069 to $.9899; the euro rose .0022 to $1.3371; the pound fell
.0137 to $1.4992; the Swiss franc fell .0002 to $1.1309; the Canadian dollar fell .0049 to
$.8519 and the USDX rose 2 to 83.83.
Oil rose $0.03 to $56.37; gas rose $0.01 to $1.67 and natural gas rose $0.28 to
$4.15. Copper rose $0.05 to $2.14; platinum rose $9.90 to $1,153 and palladium rose
$11.05 to $239.10. The CRB rose 2.05 to 239.53.
Early Friday was up again as the “Working Group on Financial Markets”
manipulates the market and specifically financial stocks. These banks are coming to
market with stock for sale to fund their insolvent companies. Now you can understand
why they doubled in price over the past two months. The buyers are headed to severe
losses.
The Dow rose 86 to 8471; S&P rose 83, Nasdaq gained 53 and the FTSE
gained 96 Dow points. The Nikkei rose 47 to 9433; the CAC rose 64 and the DAX 118.
The 2-year T-bill broke down to yield 1.01%; the 10’s were 3.35%; 1-month Libor 0.38%
and 3-month 0.96%.

21
Oil rose $0.97 to $57.68; gas rose $0.02 to $1.69 and natural gas rose $0.09 to
$4.17. Gold rose $1.20 to $916.70; silver fell $0.10 to $13.94 and copper rose $0.02 to
$2.18.
On Friday the gold and silver market dueled with the forces of evil again and
came out decently. Spot gold rose $5.00 to $916.00. The June contract was $917.00, up
$1.50. Spot silver rose $0.18 to $14.01 and July was off $0.04 to $13.99. The shares
were strong again. The XAU rose 4.61 to 138.29 and the HUI rose 11.23 to 343.34. AEM
rose 3.95%, or $1.89 to $49.76; GG rose 4.58%, or $1.43 to $32.63; SSRI rose 0.65%,
or $0.13 to $20.06 and MFN rose 3.28%, or $0.27 to $8.50.
Gold and silver were helped by a lower dollar. The yen rose .0063, or to $.9837;
the euro rose .0250 to $1.3621; the pound rose .0234 to $1.5216; the Swiss franc rose
.0200 to $1.1059; the Canadian dollar rose .0168 to $.8687 and the USDX, dollar index,
fell 1.51 to 82.43.
Oil also aided gold and silver rising $2.06 to $58.77, gas rose $0.03 to $1.70
and natural gas rose $0.27 to $4.35.
Copper fell $0.01 to $2.15; platinum fell $3.80 to $1,153.00 and palladium rose
$2.00 to $243.70. The CRB rose 3.70 to 243.23.
The market and the financials rose again; the Dow rose 165 to 8575; S&P rose
197 and Nasdaq 137 Dow points. This week the former leader Nasdaq showed weak
gains and that could be a precursor to a downward break in the market. The 2-year
Treasury yielded 0.97 after hitting a recent high this morning and the 10’s were 3.29%
after hitting 3.35 at 4:00 a.m. this morning. That will help gold and silver as well.
US wholesale inventories fell for a seventh straight month in March as sales
returned to negative territory after posting a small gain in February, a government report
released Friday showed.
Wholesale inventories fell 1.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted $411.7 billion,
after falling a revised 1.7% during February, the Commerce Department's report said.
The Department in a report released last month had estimated February inventories fell
1.5%. The February drop in inventories is the largest on record.
The March drop in inventories is more than the 1.2% decline analysts had expected and
indicates wholesalers are drawing down inventories as shipments to retailers remain
weak.
Sales of U.S. wholesalers dropped 2.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted
$310.9 billion after a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in February, the data showed.
Originally, February sales were estimated to have gained 0.6%.
The inventory-to-sales ratio, a measure of the number of months it would take a
business to deplete its current inventory, increased slightly to 1.32 from 1.31 in
February. The March 2009 figure is above the March 2008 ratio of 1.12.
On a year-over-year basis, sales were down 18.1% in March, while inventories were
down 3.5%.
Wholesalers' inventories of durable goods - a category that includes cars,
appliances and furniture - fell 2.4% in March, after falling a revised 2.6% in February.
Sales of durable good fell 3.3% in March, on the heels of a revised 1.7% increase in
February.
Auto stocks fell 5.0%, while auto sales declined 0.6%. That compares with a
7.9% drop in auto stocks in February amid a downwardly revised 3.5% increase in sales.
Lumber sales in March fell 3.1%, while furniture sales fell 2.5%.
Non-durable goods inventories fell 0.3% in March, following a 0.2% drop the month
before. March non-durable goods sales fell 1.6%, after dropping a revised 0.9% in
February.

22
Petroleum stocks rose 7.9% amid a 5.1% decrease in sales. Farm product
inventories rose 4.7%, while sales fell 3.9%
The economy has continued destroying employment in April although at a
somewhat slower pace than in previous months; Non farm Payrolls declined by 539,000
last month, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor
April’s decline, despite being a large one, is the lowest of the last four months, as
payrolls fell bu 699 K in March and by 651K in February. The Unemployment rate,
however, has increased to 8.9% in April, from 8.5% in March
Euro and Pound have rocketed on Payrolls data. EUR/USD has jumped from
around 1.3440 to levels right above 1.3500 inutes after NFP datas was released.
Employers are letting up a bit on the mass layoffs they resorted to earlier this
year to cope with the recession, but the unemployment rate is climbing because many
businesses remain wary of hiring given all the economic and financial uncertainties.
The Labor Department on Friday is slated to release a report expected to show
that a net total of 620,000 jobs were lost in April. If analysts are correct, the figure —
while still big — would be an improvement from March's 663,000 job losses and mark
the fewest reductions since November.
The deepest job cuts of the recession, which started in December 2007 and is now the
longest since World War II, came in January: 741,000 jobs vanished then, the most
since the fall of 1949.
"I think the worst has passed in terms of losses," said John Silvia, economist at
Wachovia. "But the jobs situation will remain tough."
With few places for the out-of-work to land, the unemployment rate is expected to
jump to 8.9 percent, from 8.5 percent in March. If that happens, it would mark the
highest jobless rate since the fall of 1983, when the country was recovering from a severe
recession that drove unemployment past 10 percent.
The American economy lost another 539,000 jobs in April and the unemployment
rate leapt to 8.9 percent, the government reported Friday, yet the deterioration was
slightly milder than expected, buoying hopes that better days are approaching.
Fannie Mae, operating under a federal conservatorship since September, asked
the U.S. Treasury for a $19 billion capital investment as a seventh straight quarterly loss
drove the mortgage-finance company’s net worth below zero.
A wider first-quarter net loss of $23.2 billion, or $4.09 a share, pushed the
company to request its second draw from a $200 billion funding commitment from the
government, Washington- based Fannie Mae said in a filing today with the Securities
and Exchange Commission. The company took $15.2 billion March 31.

*****
The Educated Investor
Theodore Butler
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-the-educated-
investor.aspx?article=2030667420G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Theodore+Butler
*****
*****
How panic gripped the world’s biggest banks
By Gillian Tett
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e3b972fc-3aa6-11de-8a2d-00144feabdc0.html
*****

Green Shoots---Flowers or Weeds

23
http://www.comstockfunds.com/(X(1)S(qcno4145oa24qn55rnbuwl45))/default.aspx?act=
Newsletter.aspx&category=SpecialReport&newsletterid=1455&menugroup=Home&Aspx
AutoDetectCookieSupport=1
*****
Postponing Judgement Day
by Puru Saxena
http://www.safehaven.com/article-13293.htm

DISCOUNT GOLD AND SILVER


Riding The Debt Tiger
I’m a long ways from being the first to observe that the total American debt has grown to
dangerous proportions. But I may have been the first (last July) to note that the total
American debt has now grown so great that it can’t be ever be repaid and therefore
won’t be repaid. (“What can’t be paid, won’t be paid.”) In fact, according to my
guesstimates, at least 80% and perhaps 90% of existing debt instruments cannot—and
therefore will not—be repaid.
The May 3rd, New York Times published “Worries Rise on the Size of U.S. Debt” which
warned “The nation’s debt clock is ticking faster than ever—and Wall Street is getting
worried.” Oooo—if even the mighty Wall Street is worried, the problem must be getting
pretty serious, hmm? According to the NYTimes:

“Last week, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, a group of industry officials
that advises the Treasury on its financing needs, warned about the consequences of
higher deficits at a time when tax revenues were “collapsing” by 14 percent in the first
half of the fiscal year.

(I’m curious. How can tax revenues collapse by 14% if the economy itself hasn’t also
“collapsed” by 14%?)

“‘Given the outlook for the economy, the cost of restoring a smoothly functioning
financial system and the pending entitlement obligations to retiring baby boomers, the
fiscal outlook is one of rapidly increasing debt in the years ahead. . . .such a fiscal path
could force real rates notably higher at some point in the future.’”

I presume that by “real rates,” they mean interest rates after calculating for inflation. I.e.,
if the inflation rate were 5% and the nominal interest rate was 3%, then the “real” interest
rate would be minus 2%.
While the current interest rates will almost certainly rise in the foreseeable future, will
they ever rise to a level that exceeds the “real” inflation rate?
So long as the “real” interest rate is negative (less than the inflation rate), gov-co should
not be too concerned. The inflation rate will be repudiating part of the gov-co’s debt.
Thus, you can bet that gov-co will seek to keep the inflation rate higher than the interest
rates.
But if the “real” interest rate exceeds the inflation rate and becomes positive, gov-co debt
will begin to increase even faster than borrowing.

“In some ways, ballooning deficits should not matter. Deficits are a useful way for
governments to use public spending to stimulate the economy when private demand is
weak. This works as long as a country closes its deficit and pays back its borrowings
after its economy starts to recover.”

24
And how often has gov-co closed its deficiet and paid back borrowing when the
economy started to recover? Almost never.

“Then there is the concern that the interest the government must pay on its debt
obligations may become unsustainable . . . .”

The federales tell us that the total “national debt” is approaching $12 trillion. At 5%
interest per year, a $12 trillion national debt would cost $600 billion per year—about
$2,000 for every U.S. man, woman and child. The “fair share” of the cost of interest on
the national debt for the average family of four would be about $8,000 per year.
But John Williams (shadowstats.com), USA Today (April, ’08) and former U.S.
Comptroller General David Walker have all agreed that the real “national” debt is about
$55 trillion. If so, at 5% interest, the annual cost to pay only the interest on that national
debt would be about $2.75 trillion per year in an economy with a $13 trillion GDP. That’s
about 21% of the GDP being spent on INTEREST ALONE. On a per capita basis, each
American’s “fair share” of the INTEREST on the national debt would be about $9,150.
The “fair share” of the interest on the national debt for a family of four would be about
$37,000. Per year. And bear in mind that the obligation to pay $37,000 per year would
continue forever—unless we also began to pay off on the $55 trillion debt-principal—or
admitted we were bankrupt and repudiated the entire $55 trillion debt.
And then we have the rest of our taxes for actual costs of entitlements, defense,
infrastructure, pay-hikes for gov-co employees at the federal and state levels (currently
estimated to consume about 55% of an American workers income). All this suggests
that an obligation to pay 21% of our GDP on interest, and 55% on regular taxes might
force the average American to learn to live on about 24% of his gross income. Here, in
the “land of the free,” if you earned $100,000 a year, you’d have learn to live on $24,000.
If you earned $50,000 a year, gov-co would let you keep and spend about $12,000.
Can you say “riots,” boys and girls?

“‘You’re just paying more and more interest and having to borrow more and more
money to pay the interest,’ said Charles S. Konigsberg, chief budget counsel for the
Concord Coalition, which advocates lower deficits.”

How long can we continue to borrow money to simply pay the interest on money we’ve
already borrowed? It’s like going to a second loan shark to borrow money to pay off the
“vig” owed to first loan shark. It’s like using your MasterCard to pay off your Visa to pay
off your American Express. And note that we’re not talking about borrowing more
money to repay the existing debt—we’re talking about borrowing more money and
incurring more interest costs to simply keep current on repaying our existing interest
costs. Who believes that there’s one chance in ten—even one chance in one
hundred—that we can borrow our way out of debt?
The truth is this: When any debtor must borrow more money just to repay the interest
(not principle) on his previous debts, that borrower is already (or nearly) bankrupt.
Borrowing more to pay the interest on an existing debt is the desperate act of a debtor
who can’t pay his existing debts and therefore won’t pay his existing debts. That debtor
may use his Master Card to make the minimum payment on his Visa Card (or his credit
with China to borrow enough to maintain the illusion of solvency)—but that debtor is
insolvent and merely stalling for time, trying to postpone the inevitable day of reckoning
when everyone will have to face the unpleasant truths: 1) that debtor can’t pay his debts
and therefore won’t pay his debts; 2) that debtor is bankrupt; 3) that debtor’s debt

25
instruments (promises to pay) are largely worthless; and 4) those holding the debtor’s
debt instruments as assets are going to lose their assets—big time.
None of this is news. All of this is fundamental economics that’s been known to anyone
who bothered to look for centuries, perhaps millennia.
Gov-co has understood for most of my lifetime that its unbridled borrowing could one day
collapse the whole economy, but gov-co didn’t care. A day of reckoning might be
inevitable, but so long as that day wasn’t today, gov-co continued to borrow. In fact,
once gov-co couldn’t or wouldn’t repay the principal on the existing debt, increased
borrowing was the only way that a catastrophic day or reckoning might be postponed.
Having mounted the debt “tiger,” gov-co could not (and will not) dare dismount. Gov-co
will ride the debt “tiger” until gov-co (and the American people) are too exhausted to
keep hanging on and simply fall off. At that point, the “tiger” will feed. On us.
The only question is when does the tiger feed? When will it be feeding time in our
economic “zoo”? This month? This year? Five years from now?
You have to give gov-co credit. They’ve successfully postponed the day of reckoning
(“feeding time”) for decades. It’s not impossible that with a little more “soaring rhetoric,”
they may be able to postpone feeding time for another decade or two. But judging from
the tiger’s growls and the general commotion in our economic zoo, it does appear that
feeding time is not only inevitable but near.
Now, get this: in light of the NYTimes previous statement (“‘You’re just paying more and
more interest and having to borrow more and more money to pay the interest,’ said
Charles S. Konigsberg, chief budget counsel for the Concord Coalition”), the NYTimes
declares in its very next sentence:

“Of course, no one is suggesting the United States will have problems paying the
interest on its debt.”

Ohh, “of course”!


The NYTimes makes me laugh. Do the authors truly believe that we can keep the truth
in abeyance forever by simply refusing to “suggest” that which is true?
What are the authors thinking of? How can they keep a straight face when they write, 1)
“‘You’re just paying more and more interest and having to borrow more and more money
to pay the interest,’”; and then in the very next sentence write 2) “Of course, no one is
suggesting the United States will have problems paying the interest on its debt”? By
definition, if gov-co could repay the interest, gov-co would not need to borrow more
money to repay the interest. Thus, by admitting that gov-co is already borrowing money
to repay interest on existing debt, the NYTimes itself implicitly “suggests” that gov-co
already can’t even pay the interest on the national debt.
Nonetheless, the NYTimes reports that “of course” no one (at least no one in gov-co) will
“suggest” that the US will have problems paying the interest. Similarly, of course, no
one will suggest that using your Master Card to pay off the interest on your Visa is a
good sign of bankruptcy. Likewise, of course, no one will suggest that riding the debt
tiger will inevitably lead to national destruction. Of course!
But what about paying off the principal? Yes, the U.S. may be able to continue to pay off
the interest on its debt (much like some Master Card holder can continue making the
minimum monthly payment on his debt). But has anyone “suggested” that what can’t be
paid, won’t be paid and the U.S. can never repay the principal on its debts?
“Of course,” the $55 trillion principal can’t be repaid. Not ever. So now what? Shall the
mighty United States continue to limp along making minimum monthly payments
(interest) forever? How often can the Master Card holder continue to make “minimum

26
payments” before he loses his car, apartment and job and is forced to file for bankruptcy
or simply “skip”?
Admittedly, the gov-co has a longer life expectancy and can therefore continue making
“minimum payments” far longer than some fool living off his Master Card. But the
principle is the same. When you can’t make more than a minimum payment on your
credit card, you’re on the verge of bankruptcy. Yes, many private persons have made
minimum payments for a while and then recovered. But when a gov-co has run up
trillions in debt and moved much of the nation’s industry and jobs overseas, and made
only “minimum payments” for decades—where is the hope that that gov-co will somehow
work its way out of the debt? How can the end result be anything but formal bankruptcy
and probable economic collapse?

“On Wednesday, even as it announced its huge financing needs for the latest quarter,
the Treasury said financial markets could accommodate the flood of new bonds. ‘We feel
confident that we can address these large borrowing needs,’ said Karthik Ramanathan,
the Treasury’s acting assistant secretary for financial markets.”

I suppose we should be encouraged by gov-co’s confidence. You might also be


encourage to know that I, too, “feel confident” that I “could” fly around the room like Peter
Pan if I could just get some pixie dust from Tinker Bell. (So, if you see Tinker Bell, have
her gimme a call.)
But, as has often happened, people in positions of power routinely express their “full
confidence” in some subordinate just before they give him the ax. I can’t help thinking
that gov-co’s “confidence” in being able to “address these large borrowing needs” is
likewise signal that gov-co is actually extremely “unconfident” in their continued ability to
borrow to repay interest on existing loans—often from the very party (China) to which
those existing loans are supposed to be repaid.
It’s a little like applying for a second Master Card in order to make the minimum monthly
payments on your first Master Card. Will Master Card approve your application?
Maybe. But what about your application for a third card to pay minimum payments on
the second? Sooner or later your credit “pusher” is going to cut you off and make you
face the world without your credit “fix”. Best thing for you, really. But quitting any
addiction (cocaine, heroin or credit) “cold turkey” is always painful and sometimes
catastrophic.

“To calm nerves and fill the deficit hole, the government is getting creative [desperate].
The Treasury is ramping up its auction calendar, holding more frequent sales of
government debt and selling the debt in expanded amounts. It is now holding sales of its
30-year bond each month, up from four times annually. It is also resuscitating previously
discontinued bonds, such as the seven-year note and the three-year note, to try to mop
up any available money all along the yield curve.”

Gov-co’s attempt to “mop up any available money” is simply more evidence of


desperation. They are grasping at straws. That suggests gov-co may be drowning.

“On a second front, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve are trying to bolster the
mechanics of the market—to make sure every auction goes smoothly. With such
enormous sums involved, every extra basis point on the interest rate the government
pays could mean extra billions of dollars for the taxpayer. Earlier this year, when
demand was hesitant at a Treasury auction and when a British bond auction went

27
poorly, investors grew nervous that the government might struggle to sell its mountain of
debt.”

“Bolster the mechanics of the market” is code for “putting in the fix”.
The “taxpayers” have little to worry about—at least with regard to the issuance of new
debt. So long as taxpayers can’t even pay the existing debt, what difference does it
make if they are saddled with more debt that they also can’t pay? What difference does
it make if a debtor who can’t repay $1 billion in existing debt is saddled with an additional
$1 trillion in debt? What can’t be paid, won’t be paid. One way or another (by inflation,
bankruptcy or genocide) the vast majority of the existing debt will be repudiated simply
because it is already too big to ever be repaid.
“Hesitant” investors and gov-co’s “struggle to sell its mountain of debt,” simply mean that
the system has just about exhausted its supply of “greater fools” (food for the “debt
tiger”). Once it’s clear that gov-co can’t find enough fools to buy debt instruments that
can’t possibly be repaid, the stuff will hit the economic fan, and Americans may
experience a national catastrophe.

“To avoid such an outcome and to keep borrowing costs low, the government is trying to
expand the group of firms that bid at Treasury auctions. After the demise of such names
as Lehman Brothers, the number of these firms, called primary dealers, has shrunk to
16, the smallest since this elite club was formed decades ago. Now the government is in
discussions with smaller firms like Nomura and MF Global to persuade them to join.”

The NYTimes describes “MF Global” as a broker of derivative products headquartered in


Bermuda. By “Nomura” I presume the NYTimes means the “Nomura Group”—one of
the major industrial and financial conglomerate groupings of Japan.
Gov-co’s search for “greater fools” (food for the “debt tiger”) is increasingly international.
That tells me that the American people are either becoming too broke or too smart to
continue purchasing gov-co debt. When the foreign fools also wake up and refuse to
further subsidize the federal gov-co, our federal Ponzi-scheme will collapse.
If you can see a way to painlessly dismount the “debt tiger,” please advise.
If you can’t, buckle up.
For the best in pricing and service for gold and silver coins, call Melody at 1-800-375-
4188. Be sure to listen to DGSTC live on Short-wave 7.415Mhz M-F 4:00PM ET, and
3.215 MHz M-F 11PM ET. Call 1-800-375-4188 or visit the Web site at
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or email us at: discountgoldandsilver@yahoo.com

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including gold, silver platinum and palladium whether you are buying or selling.
Our inventory includes but not limited to the American Gold, Silver, Platinum
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Silver dollars, silver bars, rounds are on hand for the silver investor. Foreign gold
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silver IRA. 1 800 375 4188

*****
CANADA
AprIL Ivey PMI increase to 53.7 vs 43.2.

28
Housing Starts s.a decline 19.9% in April to 117.4K annual rate.
April Unemployment Rate stable at 8%.

EUROPE
Euro-zone retail sales posted a record drop in annual terms in March, fueled by
the sharpest ever year-on-year slump in sales of food, drink, and tobacco, official data
showed Wednesday.
Sales volumes dropped 0.6% on the month and 4.2% on the year in March, the
biggest annual fall since comparable records began in 2000, the European Union
statistics agency Eurostat said. The data compare with a revised decline of 0.3% on the
month and 4.0% on the year in February.
The data were weaker than the market consensus estimate of a flat reading on
the month and 2.3% drop on the year from a Dow Jones Newswires survey of
economists last week. February's monthly decline was revised from 0.6% reported in
April.
Economists expect the European Central Bank to cut its benchmark interest rate
to a record low of 1.0% from 1.25% at its next policy meeting Thursday, but the retail
sales figures could add pressure on the bank to do more to combat Europe's recession.
The fall in Spanish industrial production accelerated in March, pointing to a
deepening slump for the euro zone's fourth-largest economy.
Spanish March industrial production fell 25% in calendar-adjusted terms,
following an 22% decline in February and a 21% fall in January, according to preliminary
data Wednesday from Spain's National Statistics Institute, or INE.
The Spanish economy entered recession in the third quarter of last year after the global
financial crisis hastened the collapse of a decade-long construction boom in the country.
Russia will put the first regiment of new-generation RS-24 intercontinental
ballistic missiles into service in late 2009, the Strategic Missile Forces (SMF)
commander said on Thursday.
"We plan to put the first regiment of mobile [RS-24] missile systems equipped
with multiple re-entry vehicle warheads into service by the end of this year," Col. Gen.
Nikolai Solovtsov said.
The RS-24 ICBM, which will replace the older SS-18 and SS-19 missiles by
2050, is expected to greatly strengthen the SMF's strike capability, as well as that of its
allies until the mid-21st century, Solovtsov said.
The missile will be deployed both in silos and on mobile platforms, and together
with the Topol-M single-warhead ICBM will constitute the core of Russia's SMF in the
future, he added.
He also said the SMF would conduct at least 14 missile test launches, including
space launches, in 2009.
"We are planning 14 launches for various purposes, including the testing of
missile components and warheads, the extension of missiles' service life, and space
launches," Solovtsov said.
The SMF reportedly has a total of 538 ICBMs, including 306 SS-25 Sickle (Topol)
missiles, 88 SS-18 Satan (Voyevoda) and 56 SS-27 Stalin (Topol-M) missiles.
European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said the ECB has agreed
on a 60 billion-euro ($80 billion) plan to buy covered bonds and that its benchmark
interest rate is now appropriate.
“The governing council has decided in principle that the eurosystem will purchase
euro-denominated bonds issued in the euro area,” said Trichet at a press conference in
Frankfurt. The bank, which today cut its main rate by a quarter point to 1 percent, will
extend the maturity of the unlimited loans it gives banks to 12 months.

29
ECB officials have spent the past months bickering over whether to fight a
recession by purchasing assets, with Bundesbank President Axel Weber leading
resistance to such a move. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and Bank of
Japan have lowered rates close to zero and are already buying bonds, effectively
printing money to reflate their economies in a policy known as quantitative easing.
German manufacturing orders unexpectedly increased for the first time in seven
months in March, adding to signs that the deepest economic slump since World War II
may be bottoming out.
Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, rose 3.3 percent from
February, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists expected a 1 percent
decline, the median of 27 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey showed. From a year earlier,
orders plunged 26.7 percent in March.
Greek consumer prices rose 1.0% on the year in April, compared with a 1.3% on-
year rise in March, the National Statistics Service said Thursday.
On the month, consumer prices rose 0.3% in April, compared with a 2% on-
month rise in March.
Switzerland and Liechtenstein are both actively inviting Germans to dodge taxes
at home, German Federal Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said in a speech to the
lower house Thursday.
"It's a criminal act ... not a trivial offense," to dodge taxes Steinbrueck said. He
added that Angela Merkel's bi-partisan government had taken big steps forward to fight
tax havens over the past months.
Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves rose by $5.3 billion to $385.9 billion
in the week to May 1, the country's central bank said Thursday.
The rise follows a fall of $4.2 billion the previous week.
After reaching a record high of $597.5 billion in early August, reserves have declined
dramatically as the central bank spent more than $200 billion of them on propping up the
struggling ruble.
Switzerland Apr CPI rises 0.9% on month, -0.3% on year.
Volkswagen AG’s A3 debt rating may be reduced by Moody’s as the carmaker
prepares to combine with Porsche SE, the credit-reporting company said today in a
statement on its newswire.
German industrial production was flat in March after February's slump, raising
hopes that the yearlong downturn in industry may have come to a halt, data from the
Economics Ministry showed Friday.
The outcome was above economists' forecasts of a 1.2% monthly drop.
German industrial output was down 12% in the first quarter of 2009, compared with the
preceding period.
"Recent positive impulses came from the car industry that has benefitted from
economic stimulus measures at home and abroad," the ministry said.
The first economic green shoots were also visible in German manufacturing orders that
unexpectedly jumped 3.3% between February and March.
Industrial production was down 20.4% in March from the same month a year ago,
data adjusted for the number of working days per month and also seasonal effects
showed.
Manufacturing output was down 0.4% in March from February; construction
output jumped 7.6% as building activity recovered after a cold winter.
Producer goods production, which is part of manufacturing, fell 2.4% month-on-
month in March; capital goods output was up 2.5%.
A two-month comparison, which helps smooth monthly fluctuations, showed that
production was down 6.6% in February-March from the previous two months.

30
German industrial production was flat in March after February's slump, raising
hopes that the yearlong downturn in industry may have come to a halt, data from the
Economics Ministry showed Friday.
The outcome was above economists' forecasts of a 1.2% monthly drop.
German industrial output was down 12% in the first quarter of 2009, compared with the
preceding period.
"Recent positive impulses came from the car industry that has benefitted from
economic stimulus measures at home and abroad," the ministry said.
The first economic green shoots were also visible in German manufacturing
orders that unexpectedly jumped 3.3% between February and March.
Industrial production was down 20.4% in March from the same month a year ago,
data adjusted for the number of working days per month and also seasonal effects
showed.
Swiss unemployment rate s.a. rises to 3.4% in April.
*****
EU wants 'Internet G12' to govern cyberspace
by Leigh Phillips
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13537
*****
ENGLAND
The UK's dominant service sector contracted in April but at a much slower pace
than in March, though concerns remain over the recovery of the sector.
Research group Markit Economics Wednesday said the purchasing managers index for
the sector rose sharply to an eight-month high of 48.7 in April from 45.5 in March.
The size of the increase came as a surprise because economists surveyed by
Dow Jones Newswires last week forecast the PMI would increase to just 46.2.
UK consumer confidence strengthened in April, buoyed by a less downbeat
assessment of the outlook for the economy and the jobs market over the next six
months.
This suggests that consumers believe the measures taken by the government
and the Bank of England to support the economy will work, and indicates that they in
turn won't cut back on spending as sharply as many economists had expected.
The Nationwide Building Society - a leading mortgage lender - Wednesday said its
measure of consumer confidence rose to 50 in April from 42 in March.
The pickup in confidence was driven by a less negative assessment of the
prospects for the economy.
Nationwide said 26% of those surveyed believed the economy will be better in six
months' time, up from 19% in March, while 32% of respondents believed the economy
will be in worse shape, down from 41% in March.
The proportion of those who believed few jobs will be available in six months time
fell to 62% from 65% in March.
The government announced a fiscal stimulus package worth GBP20 billion in
November, and has taken large equity stakes in a number of banks as well as offering
guarantees to revive lending.
Between October and March, the BOE cut its key interest rate to 0.5% from
5.0%, and last month announced it would inject GBP75 billion of new money into the
economy by buying government and corporate bonds.

31
Those actions appear to have convinced consumers that the economy will
recover from a deep contraction. The economy shrank by 1.9% in the first quarter of this
year and 1.6% in the fourth quarter of 2008.
However, Nationwide's survey took place before the government presented its budget
April 22. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling then said he expects the economy
to shrink by 3.5% this year, having previously forecast it would shrink by 1%. He also
forecast a rapid increase in public sector debt that most economists say can only be
corrected by tax increases or spending cuts when the economy has begun to grow
again.
The Bank of England said it will increase bond purchases to give the British
economy a further push as it shows signs of emerging from the worst recession in a
generation.
The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Mervyn King,
will add 50 billion pounds ($75 billion) to its program of asset purchases. By the time it
meets in August policy makers anticipate having spent a total of 125 billion pounds. The
panel also left the key interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent, the bank said today in
London.
The Bank of England said it will increase bond purchases to give the British
economy a further push as it shows signs of emerging from the worst recession in a
generation.
The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Mervyn King, will
add 50 billion pounds ($75 billion) to its program of asset purchases. By the time it
meets in August policy makers anticipate having spent a total of 125 billion pounds. The
panel also left the key interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent, the bank said today in
London.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s government has authorized King to print a total of
150 billion pounds to stave off deflation in an economy where gross domestic product
dropped the most since 1979 in the first quarter. Lloyds Banking Group Plc said today
that “difficult economic conditions” will persist for a year or more, exacerbating the
bank’s corporate bad loans.
Tata Steel Ltd.’s Corus unit may shut a plant in northeastern England,
threatening about 2,000 jobs, after a group of buyers terminated a purchasing contract.
April Input PPI falls a 1%, -5% YoY. April Output PPI increases 0.6%, +1.2%
YoY
Producer prices jumped the most in 10 months in April after the government
raised taxes and costs of petroleum products and motor vehicles increased.
The price of goods at factory gates rose 0.6 percent, compared with a 0.1
percent gain the previous month, the Office for National Statistics said today in London.
The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 20 economists was for an increase
of 0.2 percent.
The Bank of England yesterday expanded its money-printing program to as much
as 125 billion pounds ($188 billion) to counter the threat of deflation. Policy makers still
noted that the weakness of the pound has created “upward pressure” on inflation and
Governor Mervyn King has said the path of consumer prices will be volatile.
“Inflation is going to be bumpy in the near term,” said James Knightley, an economist at
ING Financial Markets in London. “The bank sees it slowing and they’ve left the door
open for further stimulus.”
Gilts extended losses after the report. The decline pushed the yield on the 10-
year government bond up seven basis points to 3.74 percent, and it was at 3.72 percent
as of 10:16 a.m. in London. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

32
Of the ten categories of producer prices, seven rose on the month and only the
cost of metal products fell, the statistics office said. On the year, prices increased 1.2
percent. While that was the smallest gain since 2004, it exceeded the 0.7 percent
median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 21 economists.

*****
10p tax hike needed to rescue British economy as MPs attack Darling's 'optimistic'
forecast
By Sam Fleming
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1177751/10p-tax-hike-needed-rescue-British-
economy.html

LATIN AMERICA
Chile posted a $774.6 million trade surplus in April, roughly half of the $1.58
billion surplus for the same month a year earlier, the central bank reported Thursday.
The year-to-date surplus plummeted to $2.74 billion from $7.82 billion in the first four
months of 2008. Last year, Chile had a trade surplus of $10.16 billion, less than half of
the $23.65 billion of 2007.
Exports totaled $4.05 billion in April, down 40.2% from $6.77 billion in the year-
earlier month. Accumulated exports fell 42.1% to $15.08 billion from $26.05 billion in the
January-April period of 2008.
Imports dropped 36.9% to $3.28 billion in April from $5.19 billion in the same
month a year earlier. January-April imports retreated 32.3% to $12.35 billion from $18.23
billion the same period a year ago.
Exports have plummeted mostly as a result of the drop in London copper prices,
which in April averaged $1.99878 a pound, according to state copper commission
Cochilco's market data. In April 2008, copper fetched an average $3.93942 a pound.
Chile is the world's largest copper producer and exporter. As Chile is a net importer of
crude oil, imports also retreated amid falling international crude prices.

CHINA

*****
China Says Global Easing Policies Risk Devaluation
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=appzGzSLS6bw
*****

If China loses faith, the dollar will collapse


By Andy Xie
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/46db5314-390d-11de-8cfe-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=ebe33f66-
57aa-11dc-8c65-0000779fd2ac,print=yes.html
*****
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND
Australia's seasonally adjusted balance on trade in goods and services widened
to a surplus of A$2.50 billion in March from a surplus of A$1.75 billion in February, the
Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday.
The latest figure is wider than analysts' expectations of a surplus of A$1.75
billion. Australia recorded a deficit of A$2.51 billion in the year-earlier period.

33
Australian retail sales rose a higher-than-expected 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted
A$19.30 billion in March from A$18.87 billion in February and rose from A$18.16 billion a
year earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday.
Economists surveyed ahead of the announcement on average had expected a
0.5% rise in sales for March.
Sales had fallen 2.0% in February on month.
Sales also rose 1.0% in the first quarter from the fourth quarter 2008, in chain
volume terms, compared with expectations for a rise of 0.8%.
Retail turnover, in volume terms, rose to A$53.96 billion in the first quarter from
A$53.41 billion in the previous quarter.

HEALTH
INDIGENOUS HEALING
In ancient times people used medicinal plants that grew in their region. European
settlers were introduced to new herbs that the Native American Indians used. I am going
to go back a little further into western history to explore some healing techniques the
ancient Mayan’s used and see if we can successfully apply some of this knowledge
today. The Mayan civilization, at its height existed from about 300 to 900 AD and was
more than just pyramids. The Mayan Empire included architectural wonders, art,
writings, mathematics, astronomy, engineering, scientific and medical advancements.
So, I am not alone in this as many medical researchers are noticing that there are
effective ancient treatments out there.

WHY MAYAN?
We always want what we can’t have. Medical researchers are determined to uncover the
secrets of the Mayan Empire. Uncovering some of the Mayan healing secrets are almost
impossible. I say almost because their healing tradition was passed down orally. The
Mayan empire included present day Belize, Guatemala, western Honduras and El
Salvador, the Yucatan (the Tabasco & Chiapas region of Mexico). Historians still don’t
know why the Mayan people abandoned many of their jungle cities and as a society
briefly recovered in the Yucatan between 1000 and 2500 AD. They ran into trouble
around 1519 AD at the arrival of Cortez, the Spanish conquistadors and others. At this
time the Mesoamerican writings were destroyed by the Catholic priests, which burned
more than 800,000 writings and officially ended the Mayan era. Since the healing
secrets were passed down to the generations orally, many healing techniques were
spared this fire.

THE MAYAN WAY


The healing secrets of the Mayan Empire are considered one of the richest traditions to
survive the Spanish invaders. Spanish and Moorish traditions eventually did creep into
the Mayan healing prayers. Personally I disagree with the principles applied regarding
the Maya spirits; spirit guides, ritual, ceremony, incense, amulets, dream visions and
soul retrieval by shamanic journeying. I prefer to pray to my Creator, God. When we look
at some of the Eastern forms of healing there are similarities to the Mayan medicine.
There is a major “life-force” concept and the use of pressure points (similar to
acupuncture), massage therapy, herbal medicine and prayer - these were all
components of the Mayan healing tradition.

THE BRASS TACKS OF IT ALL


The Mayan medicine was holistic in principle. The Mayan healing teaching takes into
account the physical and the spiritual; therefore many historians classify it as a medico-

34
religious form of healing. The Mayan attitude towards healing addressed simultaneously
everything that affected a person’s life and living; for example emotions, grief,
depression, anger, fear, which are mingled with and influence the physical body. Their
healing principle of “life-force” taught that life energy is everywhere and in everything;
rivers, plants, mountains and people and is in a divine “spiritual” form. This is similar to
the Eastern teaching known as chi. The Mayan’s believed that prayer directed the life-
force and the Mayan healer was there to help balance the flow of the life-force in the
patient’s body.

SIX MAYAN PRINCIPLES


The Mayan’s lived by six healing principles. First Principle is the “life-force”, which we’ve
already mentioned. The Second Principle is that the body and soul are one and for the
purposes of healing there is no separation. The Third Principle is interesting - the Mayan
healers talked to their plants and one could ascertain that it was to the point of worship.
The Fourth Principle incorporates what modern medicine is trying to accomplish today.
The Mayan’s may be the most popular civilization to use the integrative approach to
healing. They used a comprehensive approach by including several therapies of herbs,
hydrotherapy, massage, pressure points, praying etc. to bring about healing. Each
therapy held equal importance. The Fifth Principle addressed human blood. As in
Eastern Chinese Medicine, the status of the patient’s blood was critical in establishing a
diagnosis. The Mayan’s used this principle to determine if the illness was caused by the
physical or spiritual (emotional) and what healing therapy they should use. The Sixth and
final Principle involved temperature. The Hot and Cold Principle applies not only to
illness but to the foods and plants they used. For example for fever, diarrhea or vomiting
this would have been diagnosed as a “hot” disease. Garlic, onion, peppers and ginger
were considered “hot” foods or herbs. If a patient had cramps, constipation or paralysis
this was considered a “cold” disease. A cold food included cheese. The Mayan’s would
select “cold” foods to treat a “hot” disease and “hot” foods to treat a “cold” disease.
According to Mayan medicine, quick temperature changes were the cause of many
illnesses. Therefore, it was not recommended to consume “hot” foods with “cold” ones,
which they felt resulted in gastro-intestinal disorders.

LESSONS FROM HISTORY


Well, what the Mayan’s did was quite advanced for their time and could be considered
as advanced as the Egyptians in the area of medicine. Did the Mayan Six Principles
influence modern-day medicine? You might find Dr. True Ott’s DVD History of Medicine
very interesting (www.meminerals.com). I believe that if we paid more attention to history
we could avoid a lot of trouble.

THE SEVENTH PRINCIPLE


I’m going to live by my principle, “cleanse & nourish.” Health gets a whole lot easier if we
get the toxins out and put good nutrition in. The Mayan’s had it right by using God’s
powerful herbs to put super-nutrition back into the body fast. This is why God refers to
His herbs as “meat.” Gen 1:30. The blood system is also very important because life is in
the blood. So, do your organ cleanses in the proper order for safety and success – the
blood cleanse is always last. Keep the blood system (and your lifestyle) clean and you
significantly reduce your risk of disease. Do your organ cleansing at lease twice a year. I
also think prayer is key component to health – for what we cannot do - God can. Ps. 91.
Call the experts in organ cleansing Apothecary Herbs 866-229-3663, International 704-
875-8010 online http://www.thepowerherbs.com.

35
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*****
Media Censoring Lethal Side Effects Of Flu Remedies
http://www.americanfreepress.net/html/flu_remedies_177.html
*****
Big Pharma Rip Off
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s43vfS9-KkQ
*****

36

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