LIST OF TABLES

1.1 1.2 Comparison between Fuzzy Systems and Neural Networks Sample Multidimensional Vector X (First Four Column) and Sample Vector Y (Last Column) 1.3 1.4 1.5 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 Beta Values MatLab Variable Residuals MatLab Variable RMSE List of Input and output variables Sample Raw Data Set (Before processing) Setting of Premise and Consequence Parameters Descriptive Statistics of Research Methodology Meteorological Season Crop Season Descriptive Statistics of various input and output parameters of weather forecasting from 1970-2005 (monsoonal season) 4.4 4.5 4.5a 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 Standard Meteorological Weeks (SMW) Onset, Withdrawal and Span of Local Monsoonal Precipitation at Hisar Sample Normalized Data after Processing List of fuzzy variables with their Membership functions Comparison of Grid Partitioning Method and Subtractive Clustering Results of Multi Dimensional Surface Plot Results of various ANFIS Models Comparison of Statistical and ANFIS Models

LIST OF FIGURES
1.1 1.2 A two-rule two-input fuzzy inference System Structural diagram of a biological neuron (top) equivalent to schematic diagram of the artificial neural network (below) 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.3 Neuro-Fuzzy Systems for tuning a Membership Function Schematic Diagram of a Neuro-Fuzzy System First-order Sugeno fuzzy model Input Data as variable name hisar_test_data Training, Testing and Checking data Graph as circles, dots, and pluses Structure of ANFIS Model with six inputs and one output Training the ANFIS model with 100 epochs. Comparison of Testing data (.) and observed output(*) X and Y data saved in workspace Multidimensional Response Surface Plot of Predicted Variable Y Normal Dates of Onset and withdrawal of SW Monsoon, INDIA Types of Weather Forecast Normal Dates of Onset and withdrawal of SW Monsoon, HARYANA Annual Rainfall Zones in Haryana Architecture of Research Methodology Continental location of Hisar, Haryana, India General Framework of Proposed Study General Structure of ANFIS used in this Research Subtractive Clustering parameters Value of max-temp from 1970-2005 (monsoonal season) Value of AVP_M, AVP_E from 1970-2005 (monsoonal season) Value of RH_M, RH_E from 1970-2005 (monsoonal season)

4.4a 4.4 b 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14 4.15 4.16 4.17 4.18 4.19 4.20 4.21 4.22 4.23 4.24 4.25 4.26 4.27 4.28 4.29

Value of Total Rainfall from 1970-2005 (monsoonal season) Value of Total Rainfall from 1970-2005 (monsoonal season) Default Output, Lenear Model Pure Quadratic model Full Quadratic model Interactive Model RMSE plot in Grid Partition Method Comparison of observed value and predicted output in Grid Partition Method ANFIS Structure of (3,-3,-3,-3,-1) model with grid partitioning Subtractive Clustering Parameters ANFIS Model Structure of Subtractive Clustering Algorithm RMSE plot in Subtractive Clustering Method Comparison of predicted output and observed value in Subtractive Clustering RMSE plot with 1.0e-10 error tolerance and 40 epochs RMSE plot with 0.1 error tolerance RMSE plot with 0. 01 error tolerance and 40 epochs RMSE plot with 0. 01 error tolerance and 10 epochs ANFIS Structure with 4-inputs and single output (3-3-3-5,-1) A view of the Anfis System Created for experiment 2d Training of ANFIS Hybrid model with 100 epochs Surface View with Reference input [NaN NaN 0.26 0.12] Comparison of Predicted and observed Value Input and output data with its Mfs Loading testing ()and training data set(oooo) ANFIS Structure with 4-inputs and single output (3-5-5-3,-1) A view of the ANFIS System Created of Experiment 2e ANFIS Hybrid Model

4.30 4.31 4.32 4.33 4.34 4.35 4.36 4.37 4.38 4.39 4.40 4.41

Training of ANFIS Hybrid model with 25 epochs Surface View with Reference input: [NaN NaN 0.50 0.49] Rule viewer with 225 rules Comparison of Predicted and observed Value Input and output data with its Mfs Loading testing () and training data set (oooo) ANFIS Structure with 4-inputs and single output (5-3-3-5,-1) A view of the Anfis System Created for experiment 2f Training of model with 40 epochs Surface View with Reference input: [NaN NaN 0.5009 0.49] Comparison of Predicted and observed Value Rule viewer of experiment 2f

LIST OF ABBREVATIONS
AGRIL AGRIMET ANFIS anfisedit ANN AVP BSS EIAAS FNN GUI HAU IMD LMP MatLab MAX TEMP MF MIN _TEMP MSE NCMRWF PAN_EVAP RH RH_E RH_M RMSE rstool SMW SW Monsoon WS Agricultural Agricultural Meteorology Adaptive Network based Fuzzy Inference System Anfis Editor Toolbox Artificial Neural Network Average Vapour Pressure Bright Sunshine Economic Impact of Agro Advisory Services Fuzzy Neural Network Graphical User Interface Haryana Agriculture University Indian Meteorology Department Local Monsoonal Precipitation Laboratory of Matrices Maximum Temperature Membership Function Minimum Temperature Mean Square Error National Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasting Pan Evaporation Relative Humidity Relative Humidity at Evening Relative Humidity at Morning Root Mean Square Error Response Surface ToolBox Standard Meteorological Week South-West Monsoon Wind Speed