Professional Documents
Culture Documents
行业研究 兴业证券 郑方镳 磷化工行业：深度报告，磷矿资源价值面临提升，看好一体化企业发展前景 20111023
Uploaded by
shdufuOriginal Title
Copyright
Available Formats
Share this document
Did you find this document useful?
Is this content inappropriate?
Report this DocumentCopyright:
Available Formats
行业研究 兴业证券 郑方镳 磷化工行业：深度报告，磷矿资源价值面临提升，看好一体化企业发展前景 20111023
Uploaded by
shdufuCopyright:
Available Formats
2011 10 23
11E 12E
0.70 1.18
0.33 0.63
10%
0.33 0.63
1.67 1.93
80%
3-5 8%
z
600141
2011-8-1
002386
2011-9-8
0004221-9
2011-10-17
40%
30%
3-5 30%
021-3856 5927
zhengfb@xyzq.com.cn
SAC:S0190510120005
021-3856 5754
liuxi@xyzq.com.cn
600141
600096
002386
000422002470
1 ........................................................................ - 4 1.1 ......................................................... - 4 1.2 ............................................. - 5 1.3 ............................................................. - 7 2 ............................................................................ - 7 2.1 ............................................................................. - 7 2.2 ................................................................. - 8 2.3 40% .......................................................... - 11 3 .............................................................. - 12 3.1 ........... - 12 3.2 ............... - 15 4 .............................................................................................................. - 19 4.1 ........................................... - 19 4.2 ................... - 20 4.3 ........................... - 21 4.4 ....................................................... - 21 4.5 ........................................................... - 22 1 ............................................................... - 4 2 2010 .................................................................. - 4 3 1999 ...................................................... - 4 4 2009 .......................................................................... - 5 5 2010 .................................................................. - 5 6 2009 ...................................................................... - 6 7 2009 .......................................................................... - 6 8 2002 .................................................................. - 6 9 2001 .............................................................. - 6 10 2000 ................................................ - 7 11 ..................................................................... - 7 12 ............................................................................. - 8 13 ..................................................................... - 8 14 2009 ................................................................ - 9 15 2010 ........................................................................ - 9 16 ................................................................... - 10 17 2009 .................................................................. - 10 18 2008 .......................................................... - 10 19 2010 .................................................. - 10 20 2000 .......................................................................... - 12 21 2010 .......................................................................... - 12 22 2007 .................................................. - 12 23 ............................................................... - 13 24 1998 .................................................. - 13 25 1998 .......................................................... - 14 26 2010 .................................................................. - 14 27 2010 .................................................................. - 15 28 2000 ...................................................... - 15
- 2 -
29 ................................................................... - 16 30 2011 .......................................................... - 16 31 2008 .................................................................. - 17 32 2008 .............................................................. - 17 33 2000 .............................................. - 17 34 2004 .............................................................. - 17 35 ....................................................................... - 18 36 ............................................................................... - 18 -
1 ........................... - 5 2 2011 ........................................... - 6 3 ....................................................... - 8 4 2004 .......................................... - 9 5 ................................................................................. - 11 6 2007 ................................ - 13 7 2009 ............................................................ - 14 8 ..................... - 15 9 ............................................................. - 16 10 ............................................................... - 18 11 2011 ........ - 19 12 ....................................................... - 23 -
- 3 -
1
1.1
2010
80%70-80%
1 2
1
80%
20%
ST
2009
5000 100% P2O5 1999 10%
31.4% 30.6%
2 2010
3 1999
2.0
31.6%
1.8
14%
2%1%
31.4%
1.6
1.4
30%
31.2%
1.2
1.0
31.0%
0.8
19%
30.8%
0.6
0.4
30.6%
0.2
34%
0.0
30.4%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
100%
IFA
- 4 -
1.2
80% 40
4 2009
5 2010
2640
2765
22
18 15
15 13
16
14
37
500
635
740
1000
6020
2300
500
30% P2O5
USDS
30% P2O5
USDS
23%
29%
29%
58%
33%
70%
08
2010 150
100 1%
2002-2004
300 10%
- 5 -
6 2009
7%
7 2009
13%
8%
5%
31%
18%
17%
32%
49%
20%
IFA
IFA
2 2011
30.9
3.8
15.8
3.2
10.5
2.1
5.2
2.0
4.3
12.2
90.0
80
2000
2010
6807 2000 2 15%
40%
35%
8 2002
350
9 2001
2500
300
2000
250
1500
200
1000
150
500
100
50
0
2000
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2001
2010
2002
2003
2004
2005
100%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
100%
2007
- 6 -
15%9.9%
1.3
400
7 70 500
17%
200
2010
500 2009 57
76%
10 2000
3000
11
50%
45%
2500
40%
35%
2000
30%
1500
25%
20%
1000
15%
10%
500
5%
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
CEICUSDS
IFA
3-5
8%
2
2.1
37 17%
23 30%
- 7 -
90% P2O5 30%
12
45
13
19%
40
35
9%
30
25
20
60%
15
12%
10
5
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
30% P2O5
P2O530%
P2O5 25%30%
P2O5 12%25%
P2O5<12%
60%
95% 7000 30%
1 20-30
1-2
3
28
30
24
30
30
NPK
28
24
28
30
0.5mm
P2O5
2.2
75% 99%
1000 10
- 8 -
14 2009
15 2010
1%
15%
25%
35%
32%
7%
9%
13%
11%
20%
9%
23%
2005
533 2009 339 30% 10
2007 10 17
4 2004
2004.11
2005.9
2006.12
10 /
2008 15 /2010 50
/ 50 /
2008
2007 10 110
2007.3
2007.6
2011.7
2011.8
2010 1200 80
50 /
10 /
2011 ,,
15 /
,,
- 9 -
70
2000 284 100
60%
7
15 /
16
17 2009
600
78.6%
500
400
300
200
4.3%
100
17.1%
0
2005
2007
100
2009
30-100
30
2009
30 235
350
200
300
150
200
100
150
50
28%
29%
32%FOB
2011-08
2011-07
2011-05
2011-06
2011-04
2011-03
2011-02
0
2011-01
11-07
11-04
11-01
10-10
10-07
10-04
10-01
09-10
09-07
09-04
09-01
08-10
08-07
08-04
08-01
2010-12
50
2010-11
100
100
2010-10
200
2010-09
250
300
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
250
2010-07
2010-08
400
400
300
2010-06
450
2010-04
2010-05
500
2010-03
500
2010-01
600
19 2010
2010-02
18 2008
100
100%
Wind
- 10 -
2011
2.3 40%
OCP
11 IMCCargill Potash 2/3
08
600 /
FOB
800 /
208 /
32%
FOB ++
FOB
32% 40%
3-5 30%
- 11 -
3
3.1
2000-2010
663 1731 100% P2O5 9.9%
2010
82%
20 2000
2000
21 2010
5% 1% 4%
1800
33%
1600
26%
1400
1200
1000
800
600
31%
400
200
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
100%
14001500
100%
2010 1170
400
22 2007
/
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
11-04
11-01
10-10
10-07
10-04
10-01
09-10
09-07
09-04
09-01
08-10
08-07
08-04
08-01
07-10
07-07
07-04
-2000
07-01
Bloomberg
- 12 -
07
7
6 2007
07.4
07.6.1
20%
08.2.15~08.12.31
08.2.15~08.9.31 35%
08.10.1~08.12.31 20%
08.4.20~08.9.30
35% 135%
30% 130%
08.9.30~08.12.31
100% 120%
1-5 10-12 35% 110%
6-9 7%
=1.07-/*100%
4.0 /3.7 /
1-5 10-12 35% 110%
6-9 7%
=1.07-/*100%
3.4 /2.9 /
2009-2010
2011
300
23
24 1998
20%
16%
14%
31%
12%
8%
28%
4%
27%
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
0%
2007-2010 1-11 2011 1-6
- 13 -
2010
70%
25 1998
26 2010
700
600
23.7%
500
400
300
55.7%
200
20.6%
100
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
1
20 0
11
H1
20
03
20
01
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
99
2007-2010 11
5-10
3-5
7 2009
197.3
97.0
111.6
74.4
108.9
59.1
65.6
51.5
61.3
48.1
59.7
43.3
50.4
38.2
41.7
34.4
40.1
33.7
38.4
30.3
CPCIF
- 14 -
600141
1.56 ,
250 120 2011
37.2
6026 205
600096
5-6
1280 2009
830
000422
1.23 23.44%
150
5400
002386
2.79 90 /
600078
1.3
002470
59.6
3.2
30%
2000-2010 7.3%
27 2010
28 2000
250
9%
3%
6%
200
43%
150
100
15%
50
24%
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
50%
- 15 -
1000
2006
200 / 100% 100
29
30 2011
2%
10%
30%
46%
29%
50%
18%
28%
15%
2006
08 20
2010 180 99 55%
30%
9
2006.6
2007
2007
1 /
2008 3000 /
2010 5000 /
2009.1
1
5
2009
2011.5
2011
2011.8
2013 95%
5000 /
2011
- 16 -
0.1
1300
31 2008
32 2008
30000
12000
30000
11-07
11-04
11-01
10-10
10-07
10-04
10-01
09-10
09-07
09-04
09-01
08-10
08-07
08-04
0
08-01
11-07
11-04
5000
11-01
5000
10-10
10000
2000
10-07
4000
10-04
10000
10-01
15000
09-10
6000
09-07
15000
09-04
20000
09-01
8000
08-10
20000
08-07
25000
08-04
10000
08-01
25000
5000 /
2011 6
140
2006
2010 99 4
33 2000
900
800
700
600
500
400
50
40
30
20
10
0
11-05
11-01
10-09
10-05
10-01
09-09
09-05
09-01
08-09
08-01
08-05
07-09
07-05
07-01
06-09
06-05
06-01
05-09
05-05
05-01
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
04-09
100
0
04-05
300
200
04-01
100
90
80
70
60
34 2004
2008 1
2
34
- 17 -
10
2.70
0.55
3800
530
1800
0.7
1431
990
2660
5081
2.80
0.70
530
1800
1484
1260
2744
2.80
0.70
85% 30%
1200
1400
3360
980
4340
2002 94 83
2011
10% 3
2011
5.8 10%
7 15%
35
1200
36
35000
1000
30000
800
25000
600
20000
400
15000
200
10000
06-04
06-07
06-10
07-01
07-04
07-07
07-10
08-01
08-04
08-07
08-10
09-01
09-04
09-07
09-10
10-01
10-04
10-07
10-10
11-01
11-04
5000
0
FOB
FOB
Bloomberg
- 18 -
5
70%
11 2011
1 /0.5 /0.5 /
3 /
4
4.1
250 /9 /
18 /18 /5 /
20102011H1 46.832.7
1.831.13 50%
1.56 250
13.8 0.2 /
100% 45%
6026 205 /
- 19 -
120 /
60
2011-2013 EPS 0.701.181.50
4.2
78
/10 /50 /50
/ 50 / 80 /
3 / 20102011H1
71.450.0 1.820.95
600 /
1280 / 5-6 2009
830 2008 11 8
2011 60% 09
10 26 / 20-30 /
50 /80 /
2011-2013
EPS 0.330.630.93
- 20 -
4.3
PVC 52 / PVC 41.8 /
1.5 /82 8 /
100 / 30 / PVC32
/2 / 2011 3 60
/ 20102011H1 49.6
28.1
20102011H1
1.12 0.62 36.0% 5.0%.
2010-2011 PVC
2011
2011 -2013 EPS 0.330.631.12
4.4
PVC 260 /
104 /
70 /10 /
10 /90 / PVC 20102011H1
115.473.3 5.734.65
- 21 -
8 18
1.23
150 5400
2011-2013 EPS 1.421.782.01
4.5
210
/ 90 /
2013 230 /120 /
170 /20102011H1
54.837.8 3.142.25
32%70%
50%
50% 60%
3000
2011 8 18
59.6 60 / MAP60 / DAP40
60 /20 /
5 -
-
2011-2013 EPS 0.660.871.27
- 22 -
12
EPS
PE
10.21
2011E
2012E
2013E
2011E
2012E
2013E
600141
18.64
0.70
1.18
1.50
26.6
15.8
600096
17.86
0.33
0.63
0.93
54.1
002386
10.85
0.33
0.63
1.12
000422
19.26
1.42
1.78
002470
16.30
0.66
600470
10.49
600078
9.78
BPS
PB
12.4
4.89
3.8
67.1
28.3
19.2
9.19
1.9
123.9
32.9
17.2
9.7
8.33
1.3
52.1
2.01
13.6
10.8
9.6
6.08
3.2
104.5
0.87
1.27
24.7
18.7
12.8
4.35
3.7
114.1
0.28
0.38
0.46
37.5
27.6
22.8
4.26
2.5
54.7
0.08
0.15
0.22
122.3
97.8
65.2
2.45
4.0
64.8
Wind
- 23 -
12 /,
12 /,
15%
5%15%
-5%5%
-5%
1199 1 21
200135
021-38565955
2 6
100140
010-66290200
4068 15 1502-1503
518048
0755-82562090
- 24 -
www.xyzq.com.cn
- 25 -
You might also like
- 行业研究 华创证券 周铮 化学制品行业：终端渠道决定规模扩张，"马太效应"成就行业龙头 20121127Document38 pages行业研究 华创证券 周铮 化学制品行业：终端渠道决定规模扩张，"马太效应"成就行业龙头 20121127shdufuNo ratings yet
- 2 韩国造船行业最佳实践报告Document76 pages2 韩国造船行业最佳实践报告shdufuNo ratings yet
- c2012年船舶行业风险分析报告Document126 pagesc2012年船舶行业风险分析报告shdufuNo ratings yet
- c2012年船舶行业风险分析报告Document126 pagesc2012年船舶行业风险分析报告shdufuNo ratings yet
- Financial Stability ReportDocument191 pagesFinancial Stability ReportshdufuNo ratings yet
