Service Life Prediction Based on Hard Data P.I. Morris Forintek Canada Corp.

2556 East Mall, Vancouver BC.

Abstract
Service life prediction was a lot easier when one preservative, creosote, and one wood species, Scots pine, were used for a simple commodity, utility poles, for over 150 years and the only changes were in the treatment process and the treatment quality. More recently, efforts have been made to predict the performance of complex wood frame buildings. In the absence of hard data on many of the key parameters, default values and adjustment factors have been estimated based on expert opinion. The number of factors, the lack of data on those factors and the uncertainty around expert estimates make service life prediction for buildings using a factor method highly speculative. It has, however, been possible to fit an equation to data on stake tests of wood preservatives with at least some parameters that relate directly to known preservative properties. Unfortunately the step-wise rating system used for stake tests does not lend itself to accurate modeling. Experiments need to be designed specifically for service life prediction. Even then we will not be able to predict the performance required by the consumer just from the three years field test data typically required for standardization of a wood preservative. Data from accelerated lab tests may be useful for refining parameters in modeling field data. Accelerated tests are useful provided they do not change the deterioration hazard such that the agents of deterioration have a different capacity to overcome to the preservative or modification treatment. In any simulation of field exposure, the use of realistic inocula is critical for valid data since, for example, treatments for use above ground that may protect against basidiospores may not be resistant to mycelia or mycelial cords. Recently building scientists have developed models to predict how long wood components in buildings will stay at particular moisture contents given known climate, building design and construction faults. Forintek is providing the data that will show the effect these moisture contents and times might have in terms of strength loss. Finally, methods of service life prediction need to be checked with real life data and not matched against perception. Concrete and steel are perceived to be durable materials but in a survey of demolished buildings, wood frame buildings were demolished at a more advanced average age than concrete and steel buildings.

Introduction
Having experimented with service life prediction several times over the past 20 years, I can confidently say I can now predict the service life of any wood product in any hazard class (use category) as 50 years 50 years 19 times out of 20 (p=0.05). Unfortunately specifiers and consumers are looking for a somewhat greater degree of precision. Furthermore this is becoming increasingly difficult as product life cycles shorten and

manufacturers look for more rapid standardization and regulator acceptance of their product. It was not too difficult to believe chromated copper arsenate (CCA) would provide an acceptable service life when it was introduced to the US standards in the 1960s since there were field tests dating back 30 years. The manufacturers were prepared to put 40-year warranties on the product, and these have been lengthened as further decades of data were gathered. Now we have preservatives standardized on the basis of three years field test data in North America and on the basis of laboratory test data only in most of Europe. These field and laboratory tests were designed for preservative treated wood, primarily for structural applications in ground contact and may not be appropriate for physically or chemically modified wood in appearance applications above ground. In this paper I will address some key issues around service life prediction based on my painful experiences in this field. First, I will reflect on how easy service life prediction was just 20 years ago. I will then proceed to discuss some ten-year old work on a risk assessment model using what is now called the factor method and similar vintage attempts to model preservative field test data. I will digress a little to address the use of tropical test sites to predict service lives in temperate zones and summarize our current efforts to develop data for damage functions for leaky buildings. Finally I will illustrate how important it is to compare the results of expert predictions to real service life data.

Service Life Prediction based on Historic Data

Simpler times My earliest foray into service life prediction was made in much simpler times only 20 years ago (Morris and Calver 1985). The largest treated wood volumes were utility poles and railway sleepers (ties) essentially unchanged for over 150 years, treated with creosote, essentially unchanged for 150 years, using a treatment process with few modifications since patenting by John Bethell in 1838. Scots pine was virtually the only wood species used for utility poles. The major influences on service life were treatment process (Bethell, Reuping or Lowry process) and treatment quality. The UK electricity supply industry had experienced premature failures of creosoted poles installed during the 1950s approaching 20% of the population after 20 years in service. They were expecting the same rate of failure in more recently installed poles, so we examined inspection data to see what was really happening. We projected 1974 inspection data forward 10 years and compared it to 1984 inspection data. This showed in the more recently installed poles a longer period before premature decay showed up and the probability of premature decay did not increase as rapidly with age. The data also showed in the older poles a peak in decay incidence coinciding with the peak in pole installations in 1956 when treaters could not keep up with demand and maintain quality. The subsequent drop in decay incidence could be attributed to the introduction of a quality assurance scheme in 1958. Based on this examination of historic data we were able to predict the peak of replacements anticipated in the 1990s would not occur. We also identified the need to shift focus from premature failure caused by basidiomycete attack on the untreated interior of inadequately penetrated poles to mature failure caused

by soft rot attack on the treated exterior of properly treated poles that had suffered preservative depletion (Morris and Calver 1985). This made my PhD and postdoctoral research on remedial treatment of inadequately penetrated poles of rather less consequence than I had imagined and I promptly gave it up and left the country. Since then, the issues I have had to deal with have rapidly become a lot more complex.

Risk Assessment Model for Durable Wood Construction

Hard data or adjustment factors It was ten years before I ventured back into the arena of service life prediction in response to increasing problems with moisture intrusion in wood frame buildings. Together with Forinteks senior wood engineer I attempted to develop a framework for modeling the durability of wood buildings consisting of 1) life cycle considerations, 2) a durability risk assessment model and 3) a performance evaluation model. (Varoglu and Morris 1996). Although we did not get very far with this effort, some examples of our thinking might be useful to those who would take this work further. The first aspect covered issues for consideration and information required to make decisions at each stage of a building life cycle, from conceptual design through final design, construction, maintenance/repair and demolition. The first steps towards a risk assessment model looked at the demand on durability, the durability capacity and the degree of loss due to failure. Durability demand factors included hazard class (use category), climate, local conditions, exposure, required service life and adverse design effects (Morris 1994). Durability capacity factors included material properties, design, construction quality, treatment, maintenance/repairs. Degree of loss due to failure was considered to include consequences of failure and effort required for maintenance and repair. In the area of demand, we got as far as breaking down exposure effects into tendency to wet and rate of drying and the parameters influencing both of them. We also looked at adverse design effects such as water trapping and water uptake and the parameters affecting each of these. We believed that some of these parameters would be measurable and if the data were not available, we could set up experiments to quantify their effects. For other parameters not so easy to quantify we resorted to default values and adjustment factors but there were an awful lot of them (Varoglu and Morris 1996). For example, for rate of drying of wood components, we considered protection from sun, windiness and number of wood surfaces exposed. Since climate data are typically available from widely spaced locations, we felt that adjustment factors might be necessary to deal with local variants such as fog, rain or wind caused by proximity to oceans, lakes or mountains. For the required service life we took the categories from CSA S478-1995, temporary (0-10 years), short life (10-24 years), medium life (25-49 years), long life (5099 years) and permanent (>100 years). We also created a matrix of weighted factors to deal with consequences of failure and effort required for maintenance and repairs. Consequences included none, inconvenience, some disruption of service, major disruption of service to injury and death. Effort required for maintenance and repairs

were none, minor, moderate and major effort, replacement and finally irreplaceable. At this point, we already had a dozens of adjustment factors and no idea of the accuracy of their estimation. The task of verifying these factors seemed insurmountable. The next intended step was a performance evaluation model in which durability capacity would be matched against durability demand considering consequences of failure. If the capacity provided by the conceptual design was inadequate to meet the demand with an acceptable level of maintenance and repair and a sufficiently low probability of serious consequences, the design would be adjusted as needed. Unfortunately, we did not even get as far as completing the risk assessment model when the level of building problems in areas like Vancouver, Seattle and Wilmington NC escalated to the point that immediate assistance to the local building community became more important than long term efforts to develop a model (Hazleden and Morris 1999). Hazleden and Morris (1999) addressed the balance between load in terms of rain falling on a wall and capacity in terms of deflection, drainage, drying and durable materials on a conceptual basis. Change in capacity at each stage of the building life cycle was illustrated with a novel graphical method and the potential for development of a mathematical model was discussed. Nevertheless, efforts turned to ensuring that designers, specifiers and builders had ready access to basic information on design for durability through a web site jointly run with the Canadian Wood Council www.durablewood.com. These more unassuming efforts continue today. The number of factors, the lack of data on those factors and the uncertainty around expert estimates makes service life prediction for buildings using a factor method highly speculative. It may be more productive to start with a simpler system such as preservative treated stakes in ground contact.

Modelling Data from Standard Tests:

The perils of experiments not designed for the purpose Standardisation of new wood preservatives through the American Wood Preservers Association requires a minimum of three years stake test data at an aggressive test site. However, this is not difficult to achieve with any number of biocides at a high loading. What is required by the producer and end user is a treatment that they can rely on to prevent decay for 15, 40 or 60 years depending on the commodity. Ideally we need to predict long-term performance of high preservative loadings from short-term performance of lower loadings. The standard method for interpreting field test data was AWPA E3-83 but this did not work well for waterborne preservatives and was so difficult to follow that it was never used and was removed from the book of standards in 2003. An alternative approach was developed (Morris and Cook 1994, Cook and Morris 1995, Morris and Rae 1995, Morris 1998), based on the approach of Gray and Dickinson (1983). A single equation was derived to fit the deterioration curves for a series of retentions of a preservative, where condition of the wood is expressed as log stake score on the 100 (sound) to zero (broken) scale.

(i)

Condition of the wood = 100 - eA (retention)B (time)C

The fit to the mean rating data was extremely good but then again we had 15 to 20 years data to work with. We suggested the term eA varied according to the test site, and the durability of the untreated stake. It is possible to constrain this term to a specific value based on a broad range of data from a specific site and method (Morris and Rae 1995). The value of B seemed to be specific to each preservative and described the relationship between increasing the retention and the reduction in the decay rate. This was typically an example of diminishing returns (Morris and Rae 1995). The value of C was also specific to the preservative and described the degree to which the rate of decay increases with time and depletion of preservative (Morris and Rae 1995). Preservatives like CCA that do not leach substantially had first order term (linear). Preservatives that do leach had a second order term (curved). Preservatives that leach and biodegrade had a third order term (even more curved). Preservatives like creosote that bleed, volatilise, leach and biodegrade had a fifth order term, probably because biodegradation proceeds faster with decreasing retention. The validity of this equation was supported by its similarity to the antilog of the log probability model developed by Hartford and Colley (1984) using an entirely different approach, where X is the AWPA logscore converted to a probability variable. (ii) eX = eA (retention)B (time)C

Equation (i) can be reworked to predict time to reach a specific condition for a given preservative retention. Ln (time) = ln (100-condition) B(ln retention) - A C It could also be reworked to determine what retention of a new preservative would give equivalent time to a reach specified rating to that of a standard retention of a reference preservative. Initially equation (i) was applied to the mean logscore but it was recognized that this did not accurately represent the mode of deterioration of individual stakes. The mean was inevitably a sigmoid curve since it was bound to tend away from 100 at the start and tend to zero at the end. Individual stakes tended to follow a simple curve to failure. Attempts were made to use the mode and the median but the goodness of fit of the equation to the data dropped dramatically (Morris 1998). This is because the AWPA rating scheme was a step function: 10, 9, 7, 4, 0 at the time we were generating the test data we used for this work. This rating scheme has now been modified to 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 4, 0, which may improve the fit but it is still a step function. The equation may be more appropriately applied to percent residual strength, which is a continuous function. For structural applications, the 5th percentile would be more appropriate than the mean, median or mode since that would predict a minimum life for the majority of the population. When all is said and done, the basic problem was that this test method was never designed to generate data for mathematical modeling. It is likely that service life prediction will require experiments specifically designed for the purpose. (iii)

This method is still not going to predict 15 to 60 years performance from three years stake test data. It may, however, be possible to estimate the value of B for new preservatives through accelerated laboratory testing to determine the relationship between retention and rate of decay and the value of C by quantifying the rate of each mode of depletion. Using a constrained value for A and values of B and C from laboratory tests may allow the model to be fitted to field test data at an earlier stage. Service life prediction will thus require employment of a suite of laboratory and field tests specifically designed for the purpose.

Using Tropical Test Sites

Ensuring Acceleration Without Change Major obstacles to the prediction of service life particularly for above ground applications are the lack of realism of laboratory tests and the time required for field tests. To speed up the generation of field test data, many researchers have turned to using tropical or subtropical test sites where temperatures are consistently higher, rainfall is more reliable and decay rates are much faster. We have certainly done this with weathering tests of coatings (Groves, McFarling and Morris 2004). However this approach involves potential pitfalls that may not be fully appreciated. Constantly moist conditions above ground as found in windward Hawaii may favour colonization by white rot fungi and jelly fungi, whereas fluctuating moisture conditions more common in North America favour colonization by Gleophyllum species which are brown rot fungi. These groups of fungi may have very different preservative tolerances such that results obtained over the short term in tropical climates may not be predictive of long-term performance in temperate climates. This could become particularly important as we move towards using organic biocides that are degraded by the lignin and extractive breakdown mechanisms of the white rot fungi. It is imperative to ensure that accelerated tests simply accelerate and do not fundamentally change the mechanism of failure. To that end we are attempting to develop an accelerated above ground laboratory test using spore inoculum (Morris 2004).

Simulating Conditions in Leaky Buildings

The Need for Appropriate Inoculum Around the time Varoglu and Morris (1996) abandoned their efforts to predict building performance, the building science community began to develop hygrothermal models to predict moisture conditions in buildings (Karagiozis and Salonvaara 1995). Initially these focused on cold climate condensation problems but they were later modified to allow for liquid water intrusion (Kumaran et al. 2002). Once these were close to completion, they began to look at adding damage functions to predict the impact of these moisture contents on damage to components (Nofal and Kumaran 1999). The critical data for these models are the minimum relative humidity and equilibrium moisture content for decay to start and the time to initiation of decay. It was well known that decay would not start below 20% moisture content but would start and proceed rapidly

above 30% moisture content. Between these boundaries was a gray area with many authors disagreeing about the minimum moisture content for decay. Initially the data used in these calculations came from experiments on Norway spruce and Scots pine using European fungus strains (Viitanen 1997) and on aspen OSB under pure culture conditions (Schmidt 1988). A threshold of 80% RH for unacceptable moisture conditions was proposed by building scientists based on their review of the biological literature. Models run using 80% RH as the threshold showed wood frame buildings designed and built perfectly using conventional wood products would be exposed to unacceptable moisture conditions everywhere in North America except in desert regions. Forintek proposed 95% RH as the threshold based on the work of Viitanen (1997) and offered to develop data more relevant to North America (Morris and Winandy 2002). Models run using 95% RH as the threshold showed wood frame buildings designed and built perfectly using conventional wood products would not be exposed to unacceptable moisture conditions. Buildings with design and construction faults would be OK in most locations but would be exposed to unacceptable moisture conditions in areas such as Seattle, Vancouver and Wilmington NC. Since that seemed to reflect real life we were comfortable with 95% RH as an interim solution while we developed more relevant data. One of the key concerns in developing relevant data was considered to be the use of appropriate inocula. Untreated wood or treatments for use above ground that may be resistant to basidiospores may not be resistant to mycelia or mycelial cords. Inside buildings constructed with kiln-dried lumber and engineered wood products that are sterile from heat of manufacturing, basidiomycetes can arrive on the wood only in the form of basidiospores. These are notoriously difficult to produce reliably under laboratory conditions (Croan and Highley 1991) and do not reliably germinate, even on fresh sapwood (Gray 1990). Viitanen (1997) appropriately used spores and minute pieces of fungus mycelium as close to spores as possible in terms of inoculum potential. Schmidt (1988) used infected wood and soil because he was not expecting his data to be used for damage functions. Curling, Clausen and Winandy (2002) used massive mycelial inoculation through vermiculite because the intent was to monitor the progress of decay, not determine time to initiation (Morris and Winandy 2002). Suzuki et al. (2005) used no inoculum and sealed their samples inside airtight chambers, consequently they had some problems getting initiation of decay. Saito (2005), also working on developing data for damage functions at the Building Research Establishment in Japan, used small pieces of infected wood as inoculum that provide much greater inoculum potential than a basidiospore. In studies where massive mycelial inoculum was used, particularly when growing on wood, infection of test specimens typically occurred immediately in all specimens. In the work at Forintek (Clark, Symons and Morris 2005) minute amounts of mycelium of known test fungi and the natural airspora from outdoor air have been used to determine the limiting moisture contents for decay initiation. Aspen OSB, Canadian softwood Plywood (CSP) and solid Western hemlock heartwood samples were exposed to a range of humidities, in one case with pre-wetting, and regularly inoculated with Gleophyllum trabeum or Coriolus versicolor. Outdoor airspora was brought in by a fan operating for one hour twice a day. At 40% MC and 20 C it took Aspen OSB and hemlock heartwood

21 weeks to show some samples colonized and substantial loss of strength in a few samples was not noted until 34 weeks. Similarly, aspen OSB in a pilot study, showed substantial strength loss after 34 weeks at conditions close as possible to 100% RH and 20C. After three years at 90% or 95% RH and 20C, aspen OSB, hemlock heartwood and CSP did not show any basidiomycete colonization or loss of strength (Clark, Symons and Morris 2005). Even under ideal conditions for decay, the probability of initiation on hemlock heartwood boards indoors was only about 0.10 per year, meaning it would take ten years for all samples to get infected if this was indeed a linear function. This was not inconsistent with the 0.18 per year noted by Morris and Winandy (2002) for hemlock Ljoints outdoors. This clearly illustrates the importance of using appropriate inocula in tests designed to simulate real life as opposed to typical massive mycelial inoculum used in standard laboratory tests of wood treatments designed to generate data as rapidly and consistently as possible.

Real Service Life Data

Reality Check Wood is commonly perceived as an inherently non-durable building material and woodframe buildings as inherently of shorter life than brick, concrete and steel. A survey of architects generated the following average estimates of building service life: 90 years for concrete, 72 years for steel frame and 55 years for wood frame (OConnor and Dangerfield 2004, OConnor et al. 2005). Forintek set out to determine whether there is a correlation between the structural material and the reason for demolition. The Athena Institute was contracted by Forintek to survey the owners of buildings demolished in the city of St Paul Minnesota in the years 2000 to part of 2003 (OConnor et al. 2005). Data were obtained for a total of 227 buildings, 105 non-residential and 122 residential. Of the non-residential buildings, 54 were concrete, 30 were wood, 10 were steel and 11 were a combination of materials. Of the residential buildings, 118 were wood-framed, 3 were concrete and none were steel-framed. The primary focus was the spread of age at demolition for each structural material. Considering the entire data set, 18% of wood buildings were over 100 years old, 49% were 76-100 years old, and 18% were 51-75 years old. Only 14% were less than 50 years old when demolished. In contrast 63% of concrete buildings were less than 50 years old when demolished, 18% were 51-75 years old, 12% were 76 100 years old and only 5% were over 100 years old. In even more stark contrast, 80% of steel buildings were under 50 years old when demolished, however this was from a data set of only 10 buildings. It was considered that these data might have been skewed by the large number of wood frame residential buildings, thus the data were examined in the same way for just nonresidential buildings. The results were much the same with the overwhelming majority of concrete and steel framed buildings demolished after less than 50 years and the overwhelming majority of wood-frame buildings demolished after more than 50 years. The top three reasons for demolition were given as land redevelopment, building not suitable for anticipated use and buildings physical condition. Of buildings in the last

category, deterioration was mostly related to lack of maintenance. There were eight incidents of structural degradation. Six of these were in wood frame buildings, perhaps not surprisingly because these were of a higher average age. All six had failures of the concrete foundation. Two of these also had wood rot but both were over 76 years old. Of the buildings in the category of not suitable for anticipated use, wood had by far the lowest representation, likely because wood-frame buildings are much easier to adapt to new uses. Clearly, resistance to deterioration of the structural material is not the primary determinant of building service life and architects need to change their perception of wood frame construction. This has important implications for the prediction of service life based on the factor method where these factors are estimated by experts.

Conclusions
Service life prediction was easier when one preservative was used for 150 years. The number of factors, the lack of data on those factors and the uncertainty around expert estimates, makes service life prediction using a factor method highly speculative. Experiments need to be designed specifically for service life prediction. Data from lab tests may be useful for refining parameters in modeling field data. Accelerated tests are useful provided they do not change the deterioration hazard. The use of realistic inocula is critical for valid data. Methods of service life prediction need to be checked with real life data.

References
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