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Afghanistan
Week 41 08 October 2013

Review

Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises

INSIDE THIS ISSUE

Economic Development Governance & Rule of Law Security & Force Protection Social & Strategic Infrastructure

This document provides an overview of developments in Afghanistan from 24 September 07 October 2013, with hyperlinks to source material highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. For more information on the topics below, or other issues pertaining to events in Afghanistan, contact the members of the Afghanistan Team by visiting www.cimicweb.org/cmo/afg.

Highlighted Topics

Clicking the links in this list will take you to the appropriate section.

The World Bank carries out a randomised impact evaluation of the NSP. Afghanistan and China strengthen bilateral cooperation during the transition. A total of 27 candidates registered for the April 2014 presidential elections. Afghan Taliban commanders refused to meet with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. Bilateral security agreement negotiations are on a deadlock. UNAMA recorded a sixteen per cent rise in civilian casualties in 2013. New Zealand funds a large off-grid electricity power system in Bamian. Chevron emerges as one of the potential leaders of the TAPI consortium.

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Economic Development

Jan Nalaskowski afghanistan@cimicweb.org

CFC publications are independently produced by Desk Officers and do not reflect NATO or ISAF policies or positions of any other organisation.
The CFC is part of NATO Allied Command Operations.

he World Bank has carried out a randomised impact evaluation of the Afghanistan s National Solidarity Programme (NSP) showing that one of the governments flagship programmes has improved the villagers access to basic utilities such as drinking water and electricity, education, health care and womens counselling services. The programme also increa ses girls school attendance, but did not impact the school attendance of boys. Doctor visits, prenatal exams and medical professional attendance in cases of illness or injury were also improved. As the largest development programme in Afghanistan, NSP established 32,000 Community Development Councils (CDCs) across the country and financed approximately 65,000 development projects. The programme framework is based on [t]he creation of a ge nder-balanced CDC through a secret-ballot, universal suffrage election and [t]he disbursement of block grants, valued at $200 per household up to a community maximum of $60,000, to fund village-level projects selected, designed, and managed by the CDC in consultation with villagers. On 27 September, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Afghan counterpart, President Hamid Karzai, held talks on strengthening bilateral cooperation during the Fifth Euro-Asia Economic Forum held in Chinas Shaanxi Province, reports Wadsam. Leading the agenda was the discussion on the largest foreign investment in Afghanistan, the China Metallurgical Group Corporations USD 3 billion project to develop the Aynak copper mine, which so far is in deadlock due to the security problems in the area, writes Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. During the meeting, China reiterated its interest in exploiting oil and gas from three Amu River fields in northern Afghanistan, notes Pajhwok Afghan News. The expansion of China-Afghanistan economic ties falls within a steady trend which was initiated in 2002. Until 2009, the trade volume between the two partners increased from USD 20 million to USD 214 million per year. China has invested mostly in the Afghan mining sector, construction and telecommunications, while Afghanistan has invested over USD 50 million in China. During his speech at the Fifth Euro-Asia Economic Forum, President Karzai encouraged business participants to explore economic opportunities in Afghanistan, hoping

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For further information, contact: Afghanistan Team Leader rainer.gonzalez@cimicweb.org The Afghanistan Team afghanistan@cimicweb.org

that the country can contribute to the formation of a new Euro-Asia economic architecture, adds Wadsam. The meeting resulted in increased Chinese support for Afghanistans reconstruction process. Karzai welcomed Chinas participation in developing Afghan natural resources and Xi Jinping pledged to extend USD 32.5 million in foreign aid grants to Afghanistan to focus on economic development According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL), the production of saffron has experienced significant growth throughout this year, highlights Bakhtar News. The MAIL is providing farmers who receive saffron seeds with training courses and drying machines to bolster productivity of saffron cultivation. Experts highlight the potential role of saffron in development of the Afghan economy. In other agriculture development news, the Afghan Chamber of Commerce and Industries reports that in the first six months of the current fiscal year, Afghanistan exported more than 6,000 tons of potatoes and onions. The increase in potato production occurred predominantly in Bamian province, where farmers have achieved a ten per cent growth in comparison to the last year. Production improvements are related to the availability of small loans to farmers totalling AFN 112 million, notes Wadsam. The promotion of alternative crops aims directly to counterbalance the profits from poppy cultivation. The MAIL launched the distribution of improved wheat seeds and chemical fertilisers to farmers in Uruzgan and Logar provinces in order to encourage growth of licit crops. On 28 September, a wool washing factory was inaugurated in Chowk Arghandi area of Kabul province, reports Bakhtar. Wafiullah Eftekhar, the director of the Afghanistan Investment Support Agency, said that this investment of USD 1.5 million is a positive indication of foreign and domestic business interests in the country. The new factory is able to wash 1200 kg of wool in 24 hours. In other investment news, on 24 September the Ministry of Mines (MoM) announced an extension of the bidding process for constructing cement plants in Jabal-ul-Saraj district and Ghori of Parwan and Baghlan provinces through 05 November. Nearly one million tons of cement are expected to be produced annually from the plants, which will likely aid the countrys development as Afghanistan currently requires seven million tons of cement per year, says Wadsam. A number of other articles related to economic development appeared over the past two weeks, including those summarised below: On 26 September, President Hamid Karzai said during his visit in China that the scourge of terrorism is impeding economic growth and development in Afghanistan, reports Daily Outlook Afghanistan. Karzai encouraged participants of the Fifth Euro-Asia Economic Forum to participate in efforts to weaken networks and sources of terrorist financing. The death of 27 coal miners in Samangan province has forced a halt in coal extraction activities in Samangan and Bamian provinces, resulting in the loss of jobs for 4,500 workers, reports Wadsam. Members of the Afghan Parliament have called on the MoM to standardise mining activities to avoid similar incidents in the future . Chief of the Central Bank of Afghanistan (CBA) Noorullah Delawari has linked the declining value of the afghani to pilgrims carrying USD 200-250 million with them to Saudi Arabia this year, reports Wadsam. The CBA recognises the availability of the US dollar could not match the high demand, which resulted in Afghans having to pay a higher price in the Afghan currency to acquire the US currency. Najibullah Akhtari, Head of the Money-Exchangers Union, added that fear of risks in the aftermath of troopwithdrawal is resulting in capital flight, adds Wadsam.

Governance & Rule of Law

Katerina Oskarssonkaterina.oskarsson@cimicweb.org

n 06 October, the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC) formally closed the presidential candidates registration process for the April 2014 Afghan elections, reports Khaama Press. According to IEC officials, a total of 27 candidates registered for the presidential elections. The approved list of candidates, pending approval by the IEC and the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), is expected to be announced on 19 October. In addition, 2,360 candidates, including 273 women, submitted their nominations for provincial council elections to be also held in 2014. According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), the electoral process has so far proceeded in a satisfactory manner, adds Pajhwok Afghan News. In other election-related news, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported that nominations submitted to date suggest the Afghan election campaign will be dominated by former warlords, influential governmental officials and a number of prominent Western-educated technocrats. A number of major candidates have sought to foster coalitions in an effort to unify an ethnically divided political platform. According to the RFE/RL, these include: Abdullah Abdullah, an ethnic Tajik and former Afghan foreign minister who competed in the 2009 election. Abdullah, a member of Jamiat-e Islami political party, formed an alliance with Mohammad Khan, a Pashtun and a member of Hezb-e Islami party who will run as Abdullahs first vice president. Mohammad Mohaqeq, a Hazara leader running as the second vice president complements the alliance. According to Kate Clark, a senior analyst of Afghanistan Analysts Network, although neither side naturally likes one another [] for Abdullah, Hezb -e Islami represents the best Pashtun network that he thinks might access Pashtun voters. Another candidate, Ashraf Ghani, a former Afghan finance minister, has teamed up with Sarwar Danish, a Hazara leader; and with General Abdul Rashid Dostum, a former warlord and Uzbek leader of a militia which was part of the former Northern Alliance. After announcing his candidacy as one of the vice presidents, Dostum has apologised in a press statement for his past deeds during the countrys civil war, adds another RFE/RL article. Dostum also urged other factions and commanders

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involved in the civil war to apologise. Ahmad Shuja of Human Rights Watch (HRW) suggests that the timing of Dostums apology may be a part of a strategy to increase his election chances. Another candidate is Zalmai Rassoul, an influential Pashtun and former Afghan foreign minister, who many consider to be President Karzais favoured nominee. Rassoul partnered with Ahmad Zia Massoud, a Tajik and former vice president, and Habiba Sarabi, a Hazara female and former governor of Bamian province. According to Waliullah Rahmani, the director of the Kabul-based Center for Strategic Studies, Rassoul is an early presidential favourite, with his coalition enjoying support in northern and central Afghanistan. Another candidate, Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, a controversial Pashtun with alleged ties to al Qaeda during the 1980s, will run in a coalition with Ismail Khan, an influential Tajik warlord and the former Afghan energy and water minister; and Abdul Wahab Erfan, an ethnic Uzbek and parliament member. The next candidate is Qayum Karzai, President Hamid Karzais brother. He teamed with Wahidullah Shahrani, another ethnic Uzbek and former Afghan minister of mines, and Ibrahim Qasemi, an ethnic Hazara and former parliamentarian. Lastly, Khalida Ghaznavi represents the only female presidential candidate.

For the complete list of the presidential candidates and their first and second vice-presidents, see a Khaama Press article. At a press conference held in Kabul, Afghan President Hamid Karzai reiterated that he will prevent foreigners and the current Afghan governmental officials from interfering in the 2014 presidential elections to avoid frauds that plagued the previous elections in 2009, reports Tolo News. Karzai stated that governmental funds will not be used to support any specific presidential candidates. However, some observers express doubt about Karzais assurances, especially as Karzais comments come after Atta Mohammad Noor, the governor of Balkh province and a member of the Afghan political party Jamiat-e-Islami, claimed that Karzai offered him USD 100 million to secure Jamiats support for his favoured candidate, adds Khaama Press. Specifically, in an interview with Tolo News, Noor stated that leadership of his party has received several recommendations and offers; they offered us the post of First Vice [President] and a blank check, but we did not accept. Let me be clear, even the President made an offer. According to Noor, candidates r ecommended to Jamiat included Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, Zalmai Rassoul and Abdul Rab Rasul Sayyaf. The Afghan presidential palace refused Noors allegations as baseless. Despite the Karzai camps alleged offer, Jamiat currently supports Abdullah Abdullah as a presidential candidate. Afghan Taliban commanders declined to meet Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the former Afghan Taliban second-in-command, reports Reuters. US and Afghan officials believe Baradar could play a peacemaker role in the stalled peace process, possibly convincing Taliban militants to cease fighting. According to an Afghan Taliban commander, the meeting in the Pakistani city of Peshawar did not take place because Baradar was accompanied by Pakistani security officials. Baradar, detained in Pakistan since 2010, reportedly continues to be held in Pakistani custody although Pakistan agreed to release him. The Afghan government seeks the transfer of Baradar to Afghanistan, as the government does not consider him free as long as he resides in Pakistan and is closely watched by Pakistani security. Meanwhile, some Taliban officials doubt that Baradar will be able to resume the stalled peace talks with the Taliban. As one Taliban official expressed, He isnt a free man and thats why people are afraid of meeting him. In an interview held in Pakistani tribal area of Waziristan, a Pakistani Taliban groups (TTP) spokesman, Shahidullah Shahid, stated that the group cooperates with and receives financial support from the Afghan Taliban, reports The Washington Post. Shahid noted The Afghan Taliban are our jihadi brothers [] In the beginning, we were helping them [the Afghan Taliban], but now they are strong enough and they dont need our help, but they [the Afghan Taliban] are now supporting us [the Pakistani Taliban] financially. Shahid further noted that the Afghan Taliban provides a sanctuary in eastern Afghanistan for a Pakistani Taliban commander, Mullah Fazlullah, who was driven out of Pakistans Swat Valley. A number of other articles related to governance and rule of law appeared over the past two weeks, including those below: According to a chief of the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission (IHRC), Sima Samar, detainees continue to be tortured in Afghan prisons, reports Khaama Press. While the deputy chief of the Afghan National Directorate of Security (NDS) Hesamuddin Hesam dismissed the accusations, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) stated that the prisoners situation in Afghanistan will be investigated. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) informed that the use of mobile registration teams, protected by Afghan local / national police, bolstered the voter registration process in rural areas of southern Kandahar province, reports Pajhwok Afghan News. France committed to continue its assistance in an effort to strengthen governance in post-2014 Afghanistan, writes Pajhwok. As part of this assistance, Afghan deputy governors would be provided with four weeks of training at the National School of Administration in France where they would learn about various models of sub-national governance.

Security & Force Protection

Eray Basar eray.basar@cimicweb.org

egotiations on a bilateral security agreement between the US and Afghanistan have stalled, reports The New York Times. The possibility of a total withdrawal of the US troops is now under consideration. American officials say they are ready to suspend the negotiations in the following weeks unless there is significant breakthrough, adding that restarting the talks with President Page 3

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Hamid Karzais successor in next years elections is very unlikely. According to The New York Times, a full US troop withdrawal would mean a full withdrawal of coalition forces, a move that could eventually strengthen the Taliban. Moreover, a complete withdrawal of the American troops could jeopardise the much-needed aid commitments on which Afghanistan is highly dependent. Although issues such as the legal immunity of the US troops were agreed upon, reportedly two main issues remain unresolved thereby causing the impasse between the two countries. The US rejects President Karzais proposals that the US should be in charge of guaranteeing Afghanistans security and provide intelligence to Afghan forces so they can seek al Qaeda operatives in the country w ithout US assistance. Meanwhile, China expressed its support of Afghanistans strategic foreign relations with regional powers as well as the US, informs Khaama Press. Presidential spokesman Aimal Faizi said the Chinese president announced his support towards the bilateral security agreement between the US and Afghanistan in addition to the Afghan-led peace process. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported a sixteen per cent rise in civilian casualties in the first eight months of 2013 compared to the same period last year. During a news conference in Jalalabad, UNAMAs Human Rights Dire ctor Georgette Gagnon said the situation in the four eastern provinces of Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar and Nuristan is even worse, with a 54 per cent rise in the civilian casualties. Gagnon pointed out that nineteen per cent of all casualties in the country took place in the Eastern part of the country in 2013. Anti -government groups which continue to deliberately target civilians have caused the vast majority of civilian deaths and injuries. Their activities, not limited to violence, include intimidation, threat and abducti on of civilians said Gagnon. She also highlighted that the leading cause of the casualties in the eastern region is the ground engagements between the anti-government groups and ANSF which often take place in populated areas. Based on a recent report by an Indian intelligence agency, India Times writes that increased cannabis production in Afghanistan and smuggling activities carried out by the Taliban and the Inter-services Intelligence (ISI) can further deteriorate the terror and instability in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. The report alleges that the Taliban smuggle raw cannabis to Central Asia, Iran and Pakistan and then process it into hashish in these locations. Tajikistan is concerned about its border with Afghanistan and it is seeking to beef up the border security to prevent extremists and illegal drugs to cross it, reports Central Asia Online. Tajik political scientist Parviz Mullajanov said [a]ll the predictions point to an increase in tensions in Afghanistan and to an increase in the activity of religious [extremist] organisations in Central Asia, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Highlighting that Afghanistan is produ cing about ninety per cent of all opium in the world, Tajik Presidential Centre for Strategic Studies Deputy Chairman Saifullo Safarov said [a]s a result ... steps are being taken to create an anti -drug belt, which ... [President Emomali] Rakhmon has been talking about for a long time. Also, our neighbours Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan and [other] Asian countries ... are keen on seeing the border with Afghanistan strengthened. Tajik Border Service plans to create more check -points, train border guards and update equipment; however, Tajikistan still needs additional military and technical assistance. Political scientist Shokirjon Khakimov pointed out that the weak economy and small government budget prevents the country from effectively equipping their border guards. Germany handed over the control of its Kunduz camp to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) on 06 October, reports AgenceFrance Presse (AFP). Approximately 4,000 German soldiers are still deployed in Afghanistan, 900 of which remain in Kunduz. Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle pledged to support Afghanistans development. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) regional commander for northern Afghanistan, Major General Jrg Vollmer, said: We have brought Afghan security forces to a level of 80 percent the other 20 percent they will have to do themselves. On 06 October, a remote-controlled roadside bomb killed Momand Khan, the head of the operations department for Kunar security command, reports Khaama Press. The explosion took place in the eastern province of Nuristan while Khan travelled to Wama district to inspect police forces. No group claimed responsibility for the attack. Also, Taliban insurgents killed four ISAF soldiers on 06 October by detonating a bomb during a joint operation with the Afghan forces in the Zhari district of Kandahar province, reports The New York Times. The alliance did not disclose the nationalities of the deceased soldiers; The New York Times notes that almost all of the coalition soldiers in Zhari are Americans. On 05 October, another ISAF member was shot dead in southern Afghanistan by a contracted security guard, reports Khaama Press. An ISAF statement said [t]he scene of the incident is secure and the suspected gunman has been killed. ISAF and Afghan officials are assessing the incident and more information will be released as appropriate, with out disclosing the exact location of the incident and the nationality of the service member. Finally, a NATO air strike on 04 October reportedly killed five civilians including three children, reports Reuters. The airstrike followed a mortar attack on a joint NATO-Afghan base outside the Jalalabad city of Nangarhar. A statement from the presidential office said Preside nt Hamid Karzai strongly condemned the NATO air strike in which he says five civilians, including three students aged 10, 14 and 16 were killed in eastern Nangarhar province on Friday night. ISAF initially denied the civilian casualties but later launched an investigation.

Social & Strategic Infrastructure

Rainer Gonzalezrainer.gonzalez@cimicweb.org

wo electrical companies from New Zealand, Sustainable Energy Services International (SESI) and Netcon, are developing one of the worlds largest off-grid electricity power systems in Bamian province, reports Stuff. The USD 18 million project will provide electricity to 2,500 families and commercial properties in Bamian city; a project with a similar installed capacity in New Zealand would only power 200 houses. According to Stuff, the electricity initially will be used for lighting purposes but in the future, assuming the capacity increases, electricity might also be used for refrigeration and communications. The project was awarded to SESI and Netcon as part of the New Zealands government international aid programme for Afghanistan. In order to assure the projects sustainability, project managers recruited fifteen Afghan -trained engineers and forty tradesmen and labourers from the near08 October 2013 Page 4

by villages and communities. Project implementation is complex due to harsh weather in the province, but project managers highlight the main challenge was coordinating with communities to ensure cohesion with local socioeconomic and cultural specific characteristics. According to various sources, the American multinational company Chevron has emerged as a potential leader to finance and run the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, says The Express Tribune. The four countries involved are in the process of selecting and setting up the consortium with the best technical and financial capabilities to design, finance, construct and operate the gas pipeline. Afghan and Indian officials have met Chevron representatives in New Delhi and confirmed that both countries support Chevron as one of the main candidates to lead the consortium. Although Pakistan did not attended the meeting due to the security tensions with India in the Kashmir area, sources confirm that Pakistan will also be keen to vote for Chevron s participation in the project. The main obstacle in the negotiations with Chevron is Turkmenistan which has refused to award Chevron, and any other foreign consortium, rights to exploit the onshore gas fields. Instead, Turkmenistan has offered exploration rights for offshore fields to swap the gas found in these fields for gas in onshore fields and then export it to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. At the same, time, Russia has also expressed its interest to participate in the TAPI project, according to Menafn. Indian Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid said, in many ways Russia can be a major contributor, whether it is in the building of the pipeline or it is in upstream su pplement of the gas that will come from Turkmenistan to India, or inde ed in any other way. Khurshid also emphasised the role of the pipeline to create much greater economic interdependence between our countries and that perhaps is the best guarantee [for e nsuring the realisation of the project]. Similarly, Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov said that the TAPI will be a real co ntribution to the establishment of international energy cooperation, an effective stabilizing factor having a positive impact on the entire situation and will give additional stability to the entire system of political and economic ties in the Asian continent, writes AzarNews. In other regional energy news, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and US President Barack Obama will discuss the future of the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline during a bilateral meeting on 23 October, reports The Nation. The energy crisis Pakistan is facing will be one of the key items on the agenda for the coming meeting, according to sources. Reportedly, the Pakistani government is preparing various documents to secure backing of the US president on the gas project. The Petroleum and Natural Resources Ministry has sent a summary to Law and Justice Division to solicit views about US threatening statements to impose economic sanctions in case Pakistan went ahead with the pipeline project, said Pakistan officials. Sources allege the US sanctions regime does not appl y to the IP project as it does not entail direct transactions with Iranian public sector banks. Pakistani officials believe that President Obama will push Sharif to pursue the TAPI gas pipeline instead of the IP project; however, the Pakistan government does not want to compromise either project. Furthermore, Pakistan has asked Iran for USD 2 billion in financial aid to build its side of the IP gas pipeline, highlights Dawn. Pakistani petroleum minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi said that the preparations to build the pipeline in Pakistan are complete but they still need the USD 2 billion to materialise the construction of the pipeline. A number of other articles related to infrastructure appeared over the past two weeks, including those below: According to Wadsam, on the sidelines of the security talks among Iran, the US and Afghanistan, a US representative requested Irans further partnership in infrastructure projects in Afghanistan. Iran is one of the most important donors to Afghanistan and has built roads, power transmission lines, border stations and several other infra projects over the past decade. The construction works of the railway linking Balkh province with Tajikistan will be launched in the following six months, according to the Minister of Public Works, says Pajhwok Afghan News. Special police units will be deployed along the future railway to guarantee the security of the construction sites.

The capital city of Baghlan province, Pol-e Khomri, will soon launch the construction works for the establishment of two main
transmission lines and the asphalting of the Doshi-Sheebar road, reports Wadsam. The German government will fund the transmission lines at a cost of USD 55 million, while the asphalting works are financed in collaboration with the World Bank. According to the governor of the Baghlan province, the upgrading of the Doshi-Sheebar road will be a better alternative to the Salang Highway.

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Recent Readings & Resources

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Development Assistance in Afghanistan after 2014: From the Military Exit Strategy to a Civilian Entry Strategy, SIPRI, October 2013. Afghanistan: Emergency Response Fund Update, 06 October 2013 , UNOCHA, October 2013. Fourth Six Month Report, Independent Joint Anti-Corruption Monitoring and Evaluation Committee, September 2013. Afghanistan Food Security Outlook Update, FEWS Net, September 2013. Afghanistan: Humanitarian Dashboard (as of 31 August 2013) , UNOCHA, September 2013. Womens Rights, Gender Equality, and Transition: Securing Gains, Moving Forward, AREU, September 2013.

Maps Afghanistan: Protection of Civilians Snapshot (as of 1 October 2013), UNOCHA, October 2013.

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