Thinking about Thinking

How do we know things are right? How do we persuade others?

1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason

12/03/96

Warmup
Does 2+2 = 4? Does Terra revolve around Sol? How do you know?

1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason

12/03/96

Exercise: Evolution vs. Creationism

Resolved: That the theory of the
evolution of homo sapiens is correct, and the theory of creationism is wrong. Task: Construct an argument in support of the resolution. 5 minutes, in agent groups

1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason

12/03/96

What is convincing?
facts?
preponderance of the evidence consistent with the predictions of the theory? or beyond a reasonable doubt? Resolved: O.J. Simpson is innocent of the murder of Nicole Simpson.

elegance?
prefer the simplest theory that explains the facts
1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason 12/03/96 4

Storytelling: Is Davidow convincing? Relevance: Impact of technological

advance on society and culture Proposition: Feudal society resulted from introduction of the stirrup.
Stirrup gave mounted soldiers decided advantage So rulers needed mounted troops Knights needed horses --> needed land and income Ruler granted estates to knights Knights needed peasant labor to work the land

1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason

12/03/96

 Popper, Wittgenstein, Hempel [Modernism] is in principle independent of

Modernism and Logical Positivism

any particular ethical position or normative judgments . . . Its task is to provide a system of generalisations that can be used to make correct predictions about the consequence of any change in circumstances. Its performance is to be judged by the precision of the predictions it yields. Milton Friedman, The Methodology of
Positive Economics, in Essays on Positive Economics (1953), p. 4.
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 logical consistency (mathematization) disregard for the realism of basic assumptions: the
test of theory is confirmation of implications by experience
only falsifiable hypotheses are meaningful as if behavior

Modernism and Logical Positivism

disinterest in changes in motivations, institutions,

information systems, cultural attitudes and other factors affecting outcomes and associated behaviors
example: the Immaculate Conception of the indifference curve (Boulding) -- tastes are given and we do not inquire into the process by which they are formed hard to say meaningful things about the economics of advertising!
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1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason

12/03/96

As if behavior
What good is a sex-ratio theory in which
in which Fisher assumed that . . . the parent chooses the gender of the child? Dawkins: How should a gene be successful in coming down the ages other than by influencing the decisions of individuals so as to maximize their numbers of descendants? (pp. 117-118)
Do genes influence the decisions of individuals?
1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason 12/03/96 8

 Falsification is not cogent

Critique of Modernism I

Logical proposition: if H entails O, then not-O entails notH But an interesting H entails O only with ancillary H1, H2, & c.
H: British management performed poorly relative to American and German in the late 19th century O: Total factor productivity will be much lower in British iron and steel But, O follows only if
marginal productivity theory applies to Britain from 1870 to 1913 British steel had no hidden inputs offsetting poor business leadership etc.

So not-O might mean not-H or not- H1 or not- H2, etc.

1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason 12/03/96 9

Are only testable theories meaningful?

What theory with testable predictions explains why
LBJ did not run for re-election?
Surprising: life-long aspiration, advantages of incumbency But:
Dump Johnson liberal movement popular disaffection with Vietnam War heavy toll of 1960s on Johnson

In another universe with identical causal laws

identical but slightly different personal history, different outcome might occur Explanatory narrative helps us to make sense of social affairs
1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason 12/03/96 10

Critique of Modernism II
Modernism is intolerant
certain ways of reasoning are forbidden, certain fields of study are meaningless
has confined psychologists to theories that do not consider the unconscious mind has confined economists to theories that do not use psychology

1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason

12/03/96

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Can we learn from theories of the unconscious? Why do males seem more comfortable with
hard, objectivist, deductive methods? (Turkle)
important for information systems (DOS vs. Mac, programming, &c.)

Boys and girls both start closely bonded to

mother -- boundaries between self and other are not clear Both develop sense of objective reality -separate from the self
1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason 12/03/96 12

Can we learn from theories of the unconscious? But boys go through the separation from
mother twice: the Oedipal stage at age 3-4
Therefore, objectivity is more highly charged for boys the objective, distanced relationship feels safe and approved

Girls retain more intimacy with mother

hence more natural to play with the pleasure of closeness to other objects

1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason

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Rehabilitation I
Modernism is useful, but is not adhered
to rigidly Reflect on and learn from actual practice
Mankiws Maxim: No issue in economics has ever been decided on the basis of the facts Nihilistic Corollary I: No issue has ever been decided on the basis of theory, either. Frischs Restatement: Never let the facts stand between you and the right answer. McCalebs Policy Prescription Principle: All policy implications drawn from economics are matters of faith.
1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason 12/03/96 14

Rehabilitation II
Considerable reliance on irony
recognition that linguistic capabilities are limited and necessitate reliance on absurdities to converse about social affairs

Stigler (Chicago, Nobelist):

It would of course be bizarre to look upon the typical family -- that complex mixture of love, convenience and frustration -- as a business enterprise. Therefore, economists have devoted much skill and ingenuity to elaborating this approach.
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Rehabilitation III
We can learn without knowing
systems that work need not rely on timeless principles objectives, inputs, constraints, and understandings of technology change rapidly we value durable principles, but our legacy is dynamic, living wisdom

Disciplines can learn from each other

can we say interesting things about how people buy and sell information if we learn something about
how they relate to information? how the choices made to organize information affect their perceptions?

does it matter that we are increasingly perceiving machines as conscious, with personalities and psychologies?
how will this affect electronic commerce?
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1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason

12/03/96

Hard vs. Soft Mastery

For planners, mistakes are steps in the wrong
direction; bricoleurs navigate through midcourse corrections. Bricoleurs approach problem-solving by entering into a relationship with their work materials that has more the flavor of a conversation than a monologue. (Turkle)
Is agent engineering hard or soft? Are simulations masturbation, or ways of learning to work with complex systems whose
core assumptions may not be known? causal rules may or may not be true?

1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason

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 Open yourself to multiple ways of thinking,

learning, knowing
Exploring the Web is a process of trying one thing, then another, of making connections, of bringing disparate elements together. It is an exercise in bricolage. (Turkle)

Bottom line for SI

Social affairs are contingent Narrative explanation is useful Psychoanalytic and postmodern perspectives are
revealing Testing by evidence and logical deduction are still fundamental, particular for designing systems with predictable behavior
1996, Prof. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason 12/03/96 18