BRIEF

Economic and Policy Analysis Unit UNDP Mozambique

No: 02/2011
Author: Thomas Kring

The Global Human Development Report (HDR) 2011: Sustainability and Equity.
In June 2012 world leaders will gather in Rio de Janeiro at the UN Conference on Sustainable Development to seek a new consensus on global actions to safeguard the future of the planet and the right of current and future generations everywhere to live healthy and fulfilling lives. The 2011 HDR offers important new contributions to the global dialogue on this challenge and demonstrates how sustainability is inextricably linked to basic questions of equity such as fairness and social justice, and greater access to a better quality of life. In particular, the 2011 HDR constitutes an important input to the dialogue in relation Mozambiques participation in the UN framework conference on Climate Change in Durban (COP17) from 29 November to 9th December 2011 and the discussion surrounding policy options to address the issue of environmental stability and equity. Sustainability a matter of basic social justice The 2011 HDR highlights the importance of sustainability and equity and these factors influence on future achievement in human development. Though significant progress in HDI values has been achieved across the world and in particular among the countries in the lowest 25% of the HDI ranking, this progress is increasingly under threat. The HDR 2011 raises concerns that the development progress in the worlds poorest countries could be halted or even reversed by mid-century unless decisive steps are taken to slow climate change, prevent further environmental damage and reduce deep inequalities within and among nations. Sustainability and equity are wide reaching and often complex issues. The 2011 HDR examines factors which are not always associated with environmental sustainability, including reproductive health care to help fight gender inequality and poverty. Sustainability is not exclusively or even primarily an environmental issue. Rather sustainability must be approached as a matter of basic social justice for current and future generations alike. Understanding the links between environmental sustainability and equity is critical in order to expand human freedoms for current and future generations. It is clear that the remarkable progress in human development over recent decades cannot continue without bold global steps to reduce both environmental risks and inequality. In that regard, environmental sustainability can be most fairly and effectively achieved by addressing health, education, income and gender disparities together with the need for global action on energy production and eco system protection. Three scenarios where are we in 2050? The 2011 HDR includes outcomes of simulations conducted of different scenarios. The environmental challenge scenario which captures the adverse effects of global warming on agricultural production, on access to clean water and improved sanitation and on pollution suggests that by 2050 the global HDI would be 8% lower than in the baseline. The effect would be even stronger in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa where the reduction would be 12%. Under the more adverse environmental disaster scenario, which envisions vast deforestation and land degradation, dramatic declines in biodiversity and accelerated extreme weather events, the global HDI would be some 15% below the projected baseline. If nothing is done to halt or reverse current trends, the environmental disaster scenario leads to a turning point before 2050 in developing countries where their convergence with rich countries in HDI achievements will begin to reverse. A particularly pertinent problem is that the results of the simulations suggest that in many cases the most disadvantaged people bear and will continue to bear the repercussions of environmental deterioration, even if they contribute little to the problem. Double burden of deprivation on the poorest Though low HDI countries have contributed the least to global climate change, they have experienced the greatest loss in rainfall and the greatest increase in its variability. This has significant implications for agricultural production. As most people in the Sub-Saharan countries, Mozambicans rely largely on agriculture for their livelihood, which increases the vulnerability of already disadvantaged groups. In fact the most disadvantaged people often carry a double burden of deprivation. More vulnerable to the wider effects of environmental degradation, they must also cope with threats to their immediate environment posed by indoor air pollution, dirty water and unimproved sanitation. Furthermore, to the extent that women in

poor countries are disproportionately involved in subsistence farming and water collection, they face greater adverse consequences of environmental degradation. The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), introduced in the 2010 HDR and estimated this year for 109 countries, provides a closer look at these deprivations to see where they are most acute. Mozambique is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change For Mozambique the 2011 HDR is of particular relevance. The country is classified as one of the worlds most vulnerable countries with regards to natural disasters and the effects of climate change. Mozambiques vulnerability is highlighted by its rating at 7 (extreme) on the UNDP/UNEP Disaster Risk index, emphasising the need to focus on prevention and disaster preparedness. However, the country still has only limited capacity to mitigate and react to these threats. The majority of the population is highly dependent on fishing and agricultural production, and the climate-change induced erratic rain patterns and more frequent storms are increasing the vulnerability of large groups of Mozambicans. Some implications of environmental deterioration could be rising food prices which could have significant implications for a net food importing country like Mozambique. Further, linked to climate change, is rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and an urgent need for adaption efforts in order to ensure that vulnerable groups are able to tackle changes in their livelihood strategies are among the key issues facing the country. Regardless of the challenges which the country is facing Mozambique can also register some significant achievements. With its reliance on hydro power Mozambique is doing well with regards to using renewable energy sources as primary energy supply at 95.9% compared to a world average of only 25.1%. Mozambique is also below the world average with regards to greenhouse gas emissions with 1.1 tonnes per capita compared to a world average of 1.7 tonnes. However, as Mozambique continues to experience high levels of economic growth the emissions may increase unless green policies are introduced. Deforestation is a significant issue, where Mozambique has experienced an estimated 9.1% reduction in forest cover between 1990 and 2008, compared to a world average of 1.2%. That being said, Mozambique is doing relatively better than SubSaharan Africa in general which has experienced a 13.8% reduction in the same period. In general people in the poorest countries are disproportionately at risk from climate driven disasters, and Mozambique in particular is at risk in that regard. This means that many of Mozambiques remarkable human development achievements over the past 20 years are at risk and may be halted by mid-century, if environmental and climate change driven threats are not effectively dealt with. However, achieving progress in human development as well as in equity and environmental stability are not mutually exclusive. Several countries have achieved significant progress both in human development and in equity and environmental sustainability. The introduction of scalable models has shown the viability of transfer to a green economy, such as the introduction by the Ministry of Energy in Kenya of a feed-in tariff in 2008 to supply and diversify electricity generation sources, generate income and employment and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Similar examples of efforts to address environmental issues while still promoting human development growth can be found in Brazil, Philippines and several European countries. Local, national and global solutions needed Effectively promoting sustainability and equity is not a problem which a country can face individually. Addressing the challenges which all countries face, and in particular low HDI countries, of promoting human development in a sustainable and equitable manner require both innovative national policies and adopting best practices as well as engaging in international cooperation. Conferences such as the Durban and Rio provide an important platform for Governments, international agencies and Civil Society Organisations to agree on future steps and developing a common future.

Published by The Economic and Policy Analysis Unit (EPAU) UNDP Mozambique Av. Kenneth Kaunda 931 Maputo, Mozambique Briefs from EPAU are intended to be informal briefing notes on economic issues relevant for the work of the UNDP in Mozambique. The views expressed are those of the author and may not be attributed to the UNDP.