Energy Vision of Pakistan

By

Muhammad Ziauddin
August 4, 2008
Content

ƒ Situation analysis
y
ƒ Demand projections
ƒ Resource position
ƒ Supply projections
ƒ Vision
Situation analysis

ƒ Primaryy energy
gy supply
pp y – 60 mtoe
ƒ Indigenous production – 42.663 mtoe
ƒ Imports – 19.385 mtoe
ƒ Consumption – 55 mtoe
ƒ Losses – 5 mtoe (about 9%)
Situation analysis

ƒ Power Demand is more than supply

pp y
ƒ Load shedding of 4500 MW
ƒ Hampering Economic development
ƒ Industrial sector is hard hit particularly process industry
ƒ No improvement in sight
Primary Energy Supplies, 2006-07

48% Oil
Gas
1% LPG
7% Coal
13% H d
Hydro
30%
Nuclear
Imported

0% 1%
Final Primary Energy Consumption, 2006-07

29% Oil
41% Gas
16% LPG
Coal
Hydro
12%

2%
Fossil Fuels Consumption In Thermal
Power Generation
Generation, 2006-07

0%

43%
Oil
Gas
Coal
57%
Energy demand growth

ƒ GDP
ƒ Population
ƒ Elasticity
ƒ Other factors
ƒ Energy demand grow parallel to GDP
 Energy Demand Projections

Short Term Medium Term Long Term

2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Total MTOE 50.8 79.39 120.18 177.35 255.37 361.31

Oil 15.20 20.69 32.51 45.47 57.93 66.84

Natural Gas 25.45 38.99 52.98 77.85 114.84 162.58

Coal 3.30 7.16 14.45 24.77 38.28 68.65

Hydro 6.43 11.03 16.40 21.44 30.50 38.93

Renewable 0.00 0.84 1.60 3.00 5.58 9.20

Nuclear 0 42
0.42 0 69
0.69 2 23
2.23 4 81
4.81 8 24
8.24 15 11
15.11
Energy Mix Plan

2004 2010

49%
49%

7% 26%

30% 13% 9%
14%

1%
0% 1%
1%
Oil Natural Gas Coal Oil Natural Gas Coal
Hydro Renewable Nuclear Hydro Renewable Nuclear

Continues…
Energy Mix Plan

2020 2030

43% 44%

26%
14% 19% 19%
12% 11%

2% 4%
3%
3%
Oil Natural Gas Coal Oil Natural Gas Coal
Hydro
y Renewable Nuclear Hydro
y Renewable Nuclear
Resource Potential

ƒ Hydro
y 46,000
, Mw
ƒ Oil 3622 mtoe
ƒ Gas 6850mtoe
ƒ Coal 82695mtoe
Pakistan’s Hydropower Potential
Capacity
No Station/Projects
/ j
(
(MW)
)
1 Hydel Stations in Operation 6,459

2 Under Implementation 1,275

3 Feasibility Study Completed
i. Run of River 2,038
ii. Multipurpose 8,840

4 Feasibility Studies in hand 9,072

5 Projects for which feasibility studies are to be carried out 18,331

Total 46,015
Power Generation Plan

Nuclear Hydel Coal Renewable Oil Gas Total Cumulative

Existing
400 6,460 160 180 6,400 5,940 19,540
(2005)

Addition - - - -

2010 - 1,260 900 700 160 4,860 7,880 27,420

2015 900 7,570 3,000 800 300 7,550 20,120 47,540

2020 1 500
1,500 4 700
4,700 4 200
4,200 1 470
1,470 300 12 560
12,560 24 730
24,730 72 270
72,270
2025
2,000 5,600 5,400 2,700 300 22,490 38,490 110,760

2030 4 000
4,000 7 070
7,070 6 250
6,250 3 850
3,850 300 30 360
30,360 51 830
51,830 162 590
162,590

Total 8,800 32,660 19,910 9,700 7,760 83,760 162,590

 Energy Gap Coverage Strategy
400

350

300

250
Demand
MTOE

200
Import-2
150 I
Imported
t d oil
il
Import-1
100

50

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Demand Import-4 Import-3 Import-2 Import-1 Imported oil Supply
Energy Mix in Power Generation
1995 2004

0% 0%

29%
16%

34%
27% 42%
48%

1% 1% 2%
0%

Hydro Nuclear Renewable Gas Oil Coal

Hydro Nuclear Renewable Gas Oil Coal

Continues…
Energy Mix in Power Generation
2010 2020

5%
17%

19% 32%

9%
25%

40%
39%

2%
2% 6%

4%

Hydro Nuclear Renewable Gas Oil Coal Hydro Nuclear Renewable Gas Oil Coal

Continues…
Energy Mix in Power Generation
2025 2030

18%
18%

6% 20%
23% 5%
8%

43%
6%
44%

5%
4%

Hydro Nuclear Renewable Gas Oil Coal Hydro Nuclear Renewable Gas Oil Coal
Energy Vision/Security

ƒ Utilization of indigenous
g resources for power
p ggeneration
ƒ Maximize generation through indigenous coal
ƒ Increase nuclear power generation
ƒ Developing regional grid
ƒ Develop proper energy mix
ƒ Reduce losses
ƒ Increase
I oilil andd gas drilling
d illi activity
ti it
ƒ Import of LNG
Continues…
Energy Vision/Security

ƒ Import
p through
g ppipeline
p
ƒ Develop alternate energy resources
ƒ Increase refining capacity up to 50%
ƒ Emphasis on energy conservation
ƒ Efficient use of energy