Welcome to the GO!

Program: Critical Thinking and Impactful Communications

Jackson Nickerson
Frahm Family Professor of Organization and Strategy Brookings Senior Scholar in Governance Studies Associate Dean and Director of Brookings Executive Education

GO!Program Agenda
Your expectations and my goals Freemark Abby Winery Why isnt critical thinking easy? Improving critical thinking
I2 process and informal processes for formulation Elements of inquiry Four categories of intellectual standards Disposition

Professors Argyres and Dunkin will continue with the rest of the course.

Your expectations and my goals

What expectations do you have about Critical Thinking and Impactful Communications? What are the indicators for a successful course? My goals are
for you to learn more from Olins MBA program than students learn in other programs. for you to out think MBAs from other programs. for you to out perform job applicants from other programs. for you to develop out of the box thinking skills that will allow you to excel in your career.

I dare you to take full responsibility to transform your thinking and change your life for ever.

Freemark Abbey
What is the situation? What decision does Mr. Jaeger have to make? How would you advise him? Vote! How do you know that you did a good job advising him? Take a few moments to talk with a partner next to you discover and evaluate their thinking process.

Why critical thinking?

Modern management practices revolve around making decisions, often collectively. What makes for a good business decision?
How do you make decisions now? How do you think you should be making decisions?

At the Olin Business School we believe that critical thinking underpins great decision-making.
Great critical thinking is sufficiently rare that you can differentiate yourselves IF you invest in continuously improving your thinking.

Why critical thinking?

It is a focal skill desired by the best employers.
Procter & Gamble: Features of our Problem Solving Test include three types of questions which require critical thinking and analytical skills Goldman Sachs: they foster creativity, critical thinking and selfreliance Deloitte: proven analytical and critical thinking skills. Citigroup MBAs with concentration in Marketing, Analytics, or General Mgt; 3 to 5 years of relevant work experience; Demonstrated leadership; Critical thinking. J&J: competencies required for Human resources leadership, including: Strategic Contribution Business acumen, Critical thinking, Drive for results. Bank of America: proficiencies in critical thinking, leadership, business acumen, and relationship building. Dell as critical thinking ...

Why critical thinking?

Top skill gap in todays workforce is critical thinking
Recent skill gap study by UMSL of 320 St. Louis employers

President Obamas Council of Economic Advisors concluded the top worker need is
critical thinking and problem solving.

Olin Business School advanced from the middle to top of the pack in employment statistics 90-days after graduation for the top 50 MBA programs.

Why isnt critical thinking easy?

You will face different kinds of change challenges:
Structuredness of challenge Structured Ill-structured
(routine, done before) (Novel, first time)

Simple
(few moving parts)

Easy

Moderate
(need creativity)

Complexity of challenge Complex

(Many moving parts)

Moderate
(need management)

Hard

Why isnt critical thinking easy?

Ill-defined, ill-structured, messy complex problems are difficult to solve. As MBAs, these are the problems you are hired to solve. Solving such problems involves cognitive, social, and emotional elements. These elements conspire to:
limit the search for problem formulations, which can lead to solving the wrong problem. limit the search for solutions, which can lead to inferior decisions. block out disconfirming evidence that could help you overcome these limitations. generate poor decision-making.

Branches of critical thinking

Logical reasoning Launch Inquiry Comprehensively formulating and overcoming thinking traps

Common thinking traps

Information trap
Information sampling (usually found in teams) Focusing only on information held in common limits and narrows alternatives

Knowledge traps
Framing bias Accepting and using a narrow approach or description of the situation or issue narrows alternatives Drawing conclusions based on how data or questions are presented limits alternatives Anchoring Relying heavily on a past reference or on one trait or piece of information when making decisions narrows alternatives

More common thinking traps

Motivation traps
Propensity to jump to solutions Economizing on thinking time reduces exploration of alternative problem formulations and solutions Self-serving support of ego locks individuals into solutions Confirmation bias Searching for, criticizing, distorting, or dismissing information to maintain or strengthen existing beliefs narrows alternatives Not seeking for evidence to disconfirm an hypothesis or belief locks in previously stated solutions Self-serving support of ego locks individuals into solutions

More common thinking traps

Motivation trap (continued)
Self-serving and self-justification biases Evaluating ambiguous information in a way beneficial to your interests locks in previously stated solutions Believing our own perceptions are accurate, realistic, and unbiased locks in previously stated solutions Increases with self-confidence narrowing alternatives Ego locks individuals into solutions

Note the role of ego in triggering motivational traps.

Why are cognitive biases important?

Can you identify any traps in your partners thinking?
Prevalence Impact

Propensity to jump to solutions Framing bias Anchoring bias Confirmation bias Self-serving bias Self-justification bias
Code with: None, Some, Alot be prepared to explain your coding

Why are cognitive biases important?

How did your partner do? Did you perceive any biases? How prevalent are these biases in business and society? Biases trap us. We all suffer from them. Biases erode the quality of decision-making. Likelihood of biases increases with complexity and messiness of problem or question posed. Unfortunately, simply knowing about cognitive biases is insufficient for us to overcome them. Bias (and hence traps) are more severe with education and confidence. What would Blink by Malcolm Gladwell have to say?

What might you be thinking?

I dont suffer from these biases.
When was the last time that you jumped to a solution before spending time to formulate an issue problem? Have you ever blamed others without first blaming yourself?

I got into Olin. Isnt my critical thinking good enough? I thought all I needed to know was the content of Olin courses to get a good job. I thought all I needed for a good job is good grades. How will employers know that I am good at critical thinking? How will faculty improve my critical thinking?

Critical Thinking@Olin
Diving into the specifics

Intelligent thinkers
Sternberg et al. (1981) synthesized research characterizing people who are believed to be intelligent thinkers. Intelligent thinkers:
Reason systematically Solve problems well Think in a logical way Deploy a good vocabulary Make use of a rich stock of information Remain focused on their goals Display intelligence in practical as well as academic ways

In contrast
Perkins (1995) summarized research on individuals who are not considered to be intelligent thinkers. These attributes are:
Hasty impulsive, little deep processing in examining alternatives Narrow assumptions not challenged, points of view not examined Fuzzy careless, imprecise, full of complications Sprawling general disorganization, fail to advance or conclude

What is critical thinking?

Typical definition:
Critical thinking is thinking explicitly aimed at asking and answering questions with well-founded judgment, utilizing appropriate evaluation standards.

Now for a more complicated definition

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What is critical thinking?

An exceptional critical thinker:
Probes from multiple points of view, understanding the purpose of each perspective, to comprehensively formulate a problem clearly and precisely with appropriate relevance, depth, breadth, and significance. Identifies concepts to help formulate problems as well as solve them and uses concepts to identify, gather, assess, and interpret relevant information. Is evenhanded and ethical in approaching problems and developing solutions, recognizing assumptions, implications, and practical consequences. Draws conclusions or creates solutions to fully address the complexity of the situation and evaluates long-run consequences looking for ways to mitigate negative effects. Is attuned to the possibilities of individual and group biases and takes steps to avoid or mitigate them. Communicates clearly, precisely, accurately, and logically with others in figuring out solutions to complex problems.

Critical thinking is self-directed, self-disciplined, self-monitored, and self-corrective thinking.

What is Critical Thinking@Olin?

Critical Thinking@Olin is comprised of four components
Processes are necessary to avoid biases that undermine thinking and problem formulation and represent the vital ingredient that often is missing in critical thinking. Elements span categories of consideration for critical thinking. Standards help you evaluate the quality of your thinking. Disposition and Reflection explains that you are solely responsible for your thinking and suggests how you can continuously improve your thinking.

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Processes for inquiry for Critical Thinking@Olin

Comprehensively formulate before solving

Overcoming bias and ego

Some of the greatest sources of biases come from jumping to a solution and ego.
Individuals often jump to a solution/decision and by doing so make a mental commitment. This commitment creates a powerful force that leads to many of the biases that contaminate thinking and lead to politics. What can you think of to remove this bias?

Einstein once noted with respect to science, although it is likely true for business endeavors as well, that,
the formulation of a problem is often more essential than its solution

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Processes of Critical Thinking@Olin

Processes can be mechanisms for overcoming biases.
Only a few basic processes will be discussed in the course. We will focus in a basic individual inquiry (I2) process. It is important to note that process-based outcomes are sensitive to even minor variations in: Language Attitude/atmosphere Process steps sequence Facilitation skills are especially important when implementing a collective thinking process.

Individual Inquiry (I2) Process

Problem finding, framing, formulating Problem solving

Choose Problem Launch Inquiry Divergent Thinking

set of questions chosen to be addressed

Divergent Convergent Decision Thinking Thinking

Reec6on
Forestall thinking of or mentally commi3ng to a decision or solu6on

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A few definitions
Inquiry is a process of (hopefully critical) thinking. Finding is the search for, discovery of, awareness of, or choosing of something to be addressed. Framing is the set of indicators, symptoms, data, etc. that indicate or are considered part of a problem. Formulation is the set of root causes or the core issue to be addressed. Divergent thinking expands alternatives, perspectives, and possibilities. Convergent thinking reduces alternatives, perspectives, and possibilities often with respect to criteria.

Lets return to Freemark Abbey

Compare and contrast your experiences
To what extent did you and your partner explore alternative formulations of the problem? Did you formulate the situation comprehensively? How much time did you and your partner spend formulating the problem compared to solving the problem? When attempting to solve the problem, did you explore alternative solution approaches? When you arrived at a solution, to what extent did you reflect on the formulation, solution approach, and your decision?

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Divergent thinking
Informal ways to expand framing
What data, indicators, symptoms etc. are relevant or correlated to the symptom that launched the inquiry? What else is happening at the same time/situation?

Informal ways to expand formulation

Set aside the existing formulation and find another one. Before I get to a solution, what problem am I trying to solve. How can the conversation be expanded to consider other perspectives or alternatives for formulating the problem? Is there an overarching formulation that encapsulates others? Are short-run as well as long-run issues considered? Have I formulated the situation comprehensively?

Informal formulation process

Overarching Formulation Expand the Conversation Set aside Find another

You
All symptoms All causes

What problem are we solving?

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Problem finding, framing, formulating

Individual Inquiry with Informal Problem Formulation

Problem solving
Overarching Formulation

Launch Inquiry

Divergent Thinking

Expand the Conversation Set aside Find another

Divergent Convergent Decision Thinking Thinking

All symptoms All causes

Reec6on
Forestall thinking of or mentally commi3ng to a decision or solu6on

Problem formulation in business

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Key insights from I2 process

Finding, framing, and formulating problems
Forestall jumping to a decision, inference, or conclusion Probe and ask questions to comprehensively formulate Spend about half the time available to you formulating It is better to have an incomplete or approximate answer/ decision to the right problem than to solve completely and precisely the wrong problem.

What makes for a good problem formulation?

A good formulation will be defined tomorrow after a several more concepts are reviewed.

What more formal approaches to problem formulation (and critical thinking more generally) are available?

Eight elements of Critical Thinking@Olin

PPPICACC A more formal approach to formulation

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Eight elements of critical thinking

Each point of view can see challenges differently. Each actor or constituency can differ in their purposes. Problems and challenges can be formulated many ways. All reasoning is based on data, information, & evidence. All reasoning is expressed through, and shaped by, concepts and ideas. All reasoning is based on assumptions. All reasoning contains inferences or interpretations by which we draw conclusions and give meaning to data. All reasoning leads somewhere or has implications and consequences.

Points of view
Point of view describes how people perceives a situation based on their information and knowledge. Seek out and identify all relevant and significant points of view for the situation being considered.
Be comprehensive in identifying all points of view. Seek other points of view and identify their, as well as your own, strengths as well as weaknesses. Clearly and precisely identify your own point of view and how it differs from others. Strive to be evenhanded in evaluating all points of view.

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Purposes
A purpose reflects goals, objectives, and preferences (i.e., motivations) of individuals and organizations. For each point of view understand what you and others want to accomplish.
What are the various actors purposes and objectives in addressing the situation? Can you state their purposes clearly and precisely? Are some purposes significant and primary while others are secondary? How do purposes and objectives shape both point of view and their formulation of the challenge? Are you evenhanded and ethical as you consider the full range of purposes?

Problems
A problem is the formulation of a challenge to be solved. Formulate the challenge comprehensively.
How can you develop multiple formulations by considering the issue from multiple points of view? express issue in several ways to clarify meaning and scope? distinguish questions with definitive answers from those that require opinion? Have you formulated the question with the appropriate relevance, depth, breadth, and significance? Try formulating more broadly as well as more narrowly. Seek a deeper formulation. Seek significant and relevant aspects not yet formulated.

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POV POV POV P P P P

POV P

POV P

POV P

POV P P P P POV POV

Information, data, & evidence

Definition:
What information do you need to formulate the question? What information are you using in coming to your conclusion? What experience have you had to support your claims?

Guidelines:
Restrict formulations/solutions to those supported by evidence. Search for information that supports and opposes your position. Make sure you have gathered necessary/sufficient information.

Evaluation:
Do you cite relevant evidence, experiences, and/or information essential to the issue? Is the information accurate and precise? Do you address the complexities of the issue?

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Concepts and ideas

Definition:
What is the main idea or concepts used to understand the situation to make a decision? Can you explain this idea clearly and precisely?

Guidelines:
Identify key concepts and explain them clearly. Consider alternative concepts or alternative definitions of concepts. Make sure you are using concepts with care and precision.

Evaluation:
Do you clearly identify the key concepts? Are you presenting and using these concepts precisely? Is the main concept relevant? Are other concepts relevant?

Assumptions
Definition:
What are you taking for granted? What assumptions have led you to your conclusion?

Guidelines:
Clearly identify assumptions and justify them. Consider how your assumptions are shaping the various points of view.

Evaluation:
Do you show a sensitivity to what you are taking for granted or assuming? Do you use questionable assumptions without addressing problems which might be inherent in those assumptions?

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Conclusions
Definition:
What decision or answer did you reach? Is your answer sufficiently deep, broad, and comprehensive?

Guidelines:
Infer only what the evidence implies. Check inferences for their consistency with each other. Identify assumptions that lead you to your inferences. Insure that your conclusions are robust.

Evaluation:
Do you develop a line of reasoning explaining well how you arrived at your main conclusions?

Consequences
Definition:
What are the potential long-run implications of your decision? What are the implications if you take your answer to its logical conclusion?

Guidelines:
Trace the implications and consequences that follow from your reasoning. Search for negative as well as positive implications. Consider all possible consequences.

Evaluation:
Do you show a sensitivity to the implications and consequences of the position you are taking?

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PPPICACC (pronounced Pickaxe)

Points of view Purposes Problems Information Concepts Assumptions Conclusions Consequences . Use a PPPICACC for difficult problems!

Points of view

Purposes

Problem

Information

Concept

Assumption

Conclusions

Consequences

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Lead Cust. Cust. Other Owners

Comp.

Retailers Wholesalers

P P P

P P P

Suppliers

Jaegher Max short-run profitability? Max long-term profits? Maximize long term growth? Get botrytis every year Position brand as distinctive, differentiated, and high prestige? Insure availability? Insure quality?

Wine Maker

Is their an overarching formulation?

Overarching Formulation Expand the Conversation Set aside Find another

You
All symptoms All causes Rule of Three

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I2 Process with PPPICACC

Assump6ons

Assump6ons

Launch Inquiry

Purpose Point of View Informa6on Concepts Problem

Choose Problem
Conclusions Concepts set of questions chosen to be addressed Consequences Informa6on

Decision

Reec6on
Forestall thinking of or mentally commi3ng to a decision or solu6on

Critical Thinking@Olin Monograph

Booklet and other collateral How can the booklet be used?

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Homework reminder
Due tomorrow morning at the BEGINNING of class.
Write a consulting letter to William Jaeger offering advice. 300 words or less (no more than 300) Keep your write-up anonymous. You will electronically submit and assess your write-ups tomorrow in class. Bring an electronic copy of your write-up to class.

Bring your COMPUTER TO CLASS ON Thursday and be sure you can connect wirelessly to the Blackboard.
Note, Blackboard supports only a few browsers.

Use your Collaborative Case Preparation Time to discuss what you learned about I2.

Summary
Why critical thinking? What is critical thinking? What are the central traps and biases that limit and narrow thinking? What is the basic process for Critical Thinking@Olin? What are the elements of critical thinking and why are they useful? What are the main resources for teaching Critical Thinking@Olin?

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IF you remember only on thing

Formulate comprehensively before solving

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